{ "schemaVersion": 1, "status": "available", "generatedAt": "2026-11-10T15:31:20.480128+00:00", "season": 2027, "seasonLabel": "2026\u201327", "asOfDate": "2026-11-10", "cutoffDate": "2026-11-10", "dataThroughDate": "2026-11-09", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:20:46.608143+00:00", "defaultModel": "adv_selected", "selectedModel": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0140512241161224, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026, "name": "Baseline + Player box production and recent rotation" }, "modelDefinitions": [ { "id": "uniform", "name": "Equal chances \u00b7 all teams \u00b7 frozen longer-history forecast", "features": [], "groups": [ "baseline" ] }, { "id": "record", "name": "Record softmax \u00b7 frozen longer-history forecast", "features": [ "record" ], "groups": [ "baseline" ] }, { "id": "strength", "name": "Strength softmax \u00b7 frozen longer-history forecast", "features": [ "strength" ], "groups": [ "baseline" ] }, { "id": "strength_record", "name": "Strength + record softmax \u00b7 frozen longer-history forecast", "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "groups": [ "baseline" ] }, { "id": "adv_record", "name": "Record \u00b7 common training cohort", "features": [ "record" ], "groups": [ "baseline" ] }, { "id": "adv_strength", "name": "Strength \u00b7 common training cohort", "features": [ "strength" ], "groups": [ "baseline" ] }, { "id": "adv_strength_record", "name": "Strength + record \u00b7 common training cohort", "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "groups": [ "baseline" ] }, { "id": "adv_full", "name": "All verified feature groups", "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "adjusted_efficiency", "prior_roster", "player_availability", "four_factors", "pace_shooting" ] }, { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "name": "Baseline + Adjusted offense and defense", "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "adjusted_efficiency" ] }, { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "name": "Full model without Adjusted offense and defense", "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "prior_roster", "player_availability", "four_factors", "pace_shooting" ] }, { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "name": "Baseline + Previous season and roster continuity", "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "prior_roster" ] }, { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "name": "Full model without Previous season and roster continuity", "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "adjusted_efficiency", "player_availability", "four_factors", "pace_shooting" ] }, { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "name": "Baseline + Player box production and recent rotation", "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "player_availability" ] }, { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "name": "Full model without Player box production and recent rotation", "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "adjusted_efficiency", "prior_roster", "four_factors", "pace_shooting" ] }, { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "name": "Baseline + Shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws", "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "four_factors" ] }, { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "name": "Full model without Shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws", "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "adjusted_efficiency", "prior_roster", "player_availability", "pace_shooting" ] }, { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "name": "Baseline + Pace and three-point profile", "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "pace_shooting" ] }, { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "name": "Full model without Pace and three-point profile", "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "groups": [ "baseline", "adjusted_efficiency", "prior_roster", "player_availability", "four_factors" ] }, { "id": "adv_selected", "name": "Past-only model selector", "features": [], "groups": [], "description": "Select feature family and ridge independently before every season using only earlier forward predictions." } ], "gameCount": 154, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "trainingSeasonCount": 19, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "wins": 7, "losses": 5, "games": 12, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02530687470448522, "strength": 0.020211870442353497, "strength_record": 0.021173000012765064, "adv_record": 0.021298297335437307, "adv_strength": 0.018442512492272804, "adv_strength_record": 0.018607504437648942, "adv_full": 0.01844749107496448, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.024873549981859498, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02049307427686061, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.021779181686937134, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.019521943530787893, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008914699852350957, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02362938927351271, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.023302626171073197, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01764331968865781, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.027969584156842905, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01733152397532429, "adv_selected": 0.008914699852350957 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.021354607385375392, "upper80": 0.028987778865157743, "lower95": 0.01933933760320787, "upper95": 0.03095564220688255 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.016951635901179526, "upper80": 0.02369083823832365, "lower95": 0.015362567454616201, "upper95": 0.025110060316627728 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.017565507540527263, "upper80": 0.024791043623102648, "lower95": 0.015934196185863003, "upper95": 0.026623529059589937 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.01634889528827398, "upper80": 0.026606826591896095, "lower95": 0.013537367315710072, "upper95": 0.028414438947483522 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.013630573826227541, "upper80": 0.022729157208353588, "lower95": 0.011317400886737352, "upper95": 0.02504426283652298 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.013201574826568854, "upper80": 0.02385914700345128, "lower95": 0.010307639028298028, "upper95": 0.026435766525843247 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.009153407379233385, "upper80": 0.028266077443494266, "lower95": 0.006388675209633434, "upper95": 0.035505642888613666 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.015661263889646095, "upper80": 0.032592680865898796, "lower95": 0.011930992345647382, "upper95": 0.03597575311675883 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.010217741268441253, "upper80": 0.03084154320366437, "lower95": 0.00723624254391424, "upper95": 0.039337660872190365 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.01734457712930606, "upper80": 0.02616837088667437, "lower95": 0.015320639994630306, "upper95": 0.029580344556810717 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.009176446240989766, "upper80": 0.031210552107574934, "lower95": 0.006894469977225208, "upper95": 0.0398753802625928 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.003285406737379744, "upper80": 0.017218214496852423, "lower95": 0.0019610040242454543, "upper95": 0.023965534742928746 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.013491535394022562, "upper80": 0.03416567901805291, "lower95": 0.010169989291177848, "upper95": 0.04026185754101942 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.007647905507610436, "upper80": 0.04365252071356784, "lower95": 0.00497944870802471, "upper95": 0.06618473777140024 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.010768259677653868, "upper80": 0.024041005560221488, "lower95": 0.009069406666361364, "upper95": 0.027186079493357475 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.012115229318339351, "upper80": 0.043388828022515646, "lower95": 0.008002673955488716, "upper95": 0.05663128772350757 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.008731559927182905, "upper80": 0.027532729579347395, "lower95": 0.006978723272216599, "upper95": 0.038398527875294096 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.003285406737379744, "upper80": 0.017218214496852423, "lower95": 0.0019610040242454543, "upper95": 0.023965534742928746 } } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "wins": 2, "losses": 8, "games": 10, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002623643871712114, "strength": 0.003858212959439869, "strength_record": 0.002345307905407345, "adv_record": 0.0014129918196087135, "adv_strength": 0.003035267098956819, "adv_strength_record": 0.0012585004036904585, "adv_full": 0.0010590056225365143, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0021006495822338913, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001151867077665231, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0015908191129482166, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0020012062999184613, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00040790610973200536, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00116809447700611, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0005267019242191671, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015164992363395132, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0020811204345010325, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007120251661734472, "adv_selected": 0.00040790610973200536 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.0014259259118901328, "upper80": 0.004508490013541854, "lower95": 0.001018692895510951, "upper95": 0.006059878167271296 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.002449224862248991, "upper80": 0.0059889018077437855, "lower95": 0.0019178719816193605, "upper95": 0.007114437354021058 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0013605937953857982, "upper80": 0.0037939962258173236, "lower95": 0.000998059753839845, "upper95": 0.004999090222955015 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.0005884638658785753, "upper80": 0.003179033390306883, "lower95": 0.00032482004587877866, "upper95": 0.004143672007926017 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.0014345828225951947, "upper80": 0.005320039766467211, "lower95": 0.0009241711479998097, "upper95": 0.0070582272677754375 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0005320345669894606, "upper80": 0.002630798003645532, "lower95": 0.00027066286423004464, "upper95": 0.003578033486564086 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.0004512737232891354, "upper80": 0.001890802200931913, "lower95": 0.0002896648256452195, "upper95": 0.0027949456218451588 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0005505087773269909, "upper80": 0.005222214644395517, "lower95": 0.00028951017163710496, "upper95": 0.008204339623823637 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0005130514955128706, "upper80": 0.002062594509836072, "lower95": 0.00031567689650900525, "upper95": 0.002886822905510578 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0010171588098757576, "upper80": 0.002316139414472842, "lower95": 0.0007888471554247731, "upper95": 0.0028777074285112948 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0009315206098681509, "upper80": 0.0033608590376365973, "lower95": 0.0006506160455186339, "upper95": 0.004525148300422892 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 9.46748062177059e-05, "upper80": 0.0009408227846325628, "lower95": 4.084019489473647e-05, "upper95": 0.0013439320280959047 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.000558966055711136, "upper80": 0.00198577591912545, "lower95": 0.0003746123577154242, "upper95": 0.002772521033757808 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.00014262948582708678, "upper80": 0.0009701159500539041, "lower95": 7.212440311017616e-05, "upper95": 0.0015472202168812922 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0007206690537921877, "upper80": 0.002427472776960928, "lower95": 0.0005325756649073503, "upper95": 0.00322843985083213 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0007278527019739133, "upper80": 0.004108380086879894, "lower95": 0.0004069379894220813, "upper95": 0.0060813466796174 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0003318308617871691, "upper80": 0.0012664991502957103, "lower95": 0.00022022003285922893, "upper95": 0.0017863179394548604 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 9.46748062177059e-05, "upper80": 0.0009408227846325628, "lower95": 4.084019489473647e-05, "upper95": 0.0013439320280959047 } } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "wins": 8, "losses": 2, "games": 10, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09111733345724984, "strength": 0.05702516626649334, "strength_record": 0.07755594611809698, "adv_record": 0.09869314232923067, "adv_strength": 0.05709745633415523, "adv_strength_record": 0.08884573475320336, "adv_full": 0.07563650270598293, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08680345985025008, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07486664342096136, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10453648878565394, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04478356387990321, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.027822423003488094, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.11613492238473386, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.053658339050934596, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06942679285813054, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07838870105385605, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.054902476083691795, "adv_selected": 0.027822423003488094 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.08298791586101893, "upper80": 0.09859288013937087, "lower95": 0.07781717509626415, "upper95": 0.10209738487678675 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.0560498307796627, "upper80": 0.0570988221960796, "lower95": 0.05532053940110247, "upper95": 0.05710477106459218 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0684668047877276, "upper80": 0.08675585020210219, "lower95": 0.06529350621923545, "upper95": 0.09083169381412515 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.0884137295248358, "upper80": 0.10703661462267618, "lower95": 0.08436227497224885, "upper95": 0.11146750122318398 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.05558563117187771, "upper80": 0.05709379991371391, "lower95": 0.05408091384431413, "upper95": 0.057104750224322605 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.07401734447067905, "upper80": 0.10103747816727954, "lower95": 0.06840880233633051, "upper95": 0.10728722544887442 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.033871782672360594, "upper80": 0.11829470138321879, "lower95": 0.02313595927184062, "upper95": 0.1568292630877774 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.06918349291817584, "upper80": 0.09900713956413205, "lower95": 0.061064364128240456, "upper95": 0.10549422036708818 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.03222001268956089, "upper80": 0.11978409293895174, "lower95": 0.022608439704959456, "upper95": 0.15914505350633296 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.08988301617190242, "upper80": 0.11547472701911314, "lower95": 0.0816221545989852, "upper95": 0.11999516077926616 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.021141522235831198, "upper80": 0.07281136045247383, "lower95": 0.014927562671694938, "upper95": 0.0945638821796901 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.01129312962741286, "upper80": 0.049025180555623694, "lower95": 0.008130528094198826, "upper95": 0.06654931371877923 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.06413444301283154, "upper80": 0.16967489649089415, "lower95": 0.04329674256973681, "upper95": 0.2174980965025666 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.02284072017816073, "upper80": 0.08493634455073257, "lower95": 0.014847478766347693, "upper95": 0.11388830692909652 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.03534487650617488, "upper80": 0.11840300694706003, "lower95": 0.028521135234764, "upper95": 0.16404255044002655 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.03428660097576753, "upper80": 0.1685330570367334, "lower95": 0.022733085656773712, "upper95": 0.2310468804895642 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.02782532572783625, "upper80": 0.08738183560097586, "lower95": 0.019630805913047836, "upper95": 0.10482063765122607 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.01129312962741286, "upper80": 0.049025180555623694, "lower95": 0.008130528094198826, "upper95": 0.06654931371877923 } } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "wins": 4, "losses": 7, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0069039038532435785, "strength": 0.0020736758583098196, "strength_record": 0.0029297901138242697, "adv_record": 0.004498719540364842, "adv_strength": 0.0015431427239423672, "adv_strength_record": 0.002325234291710403, "adv_full": 0.0024936642452502928, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005120627239321654, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0027567514004868247, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006894293295865952, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0018610073348613303, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001943818678834166, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004984637664516286, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0041396515677268745, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0008145170820267308, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0011330649968218514, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0025617846599378536, "adv_selected": 0.0001943818678834166 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.00452737340749811, "upper80": 0.00997760896801402, "lower95": 0.0035790082566896247, "upper95": 0.012156521646035636 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.0011858583760842392, "upper80": 0.0035763207597731828, "lower95": 0.000879087070079428, "upper95": 0.004434022624471369 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0016274532528175669, "upper80": 0.005167611460083688, "lower95": 0.0011956092702067138, "upper95": 0.006408381544822332 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.002432382470531294, "upper80": 0.00787360475156164, "lower95": 0.0015963626703056108, "upper95": 0.009425847173127007 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.0006167932737032131, "upper80": 0.003086518125933258, "lower95": 0.0003612978263730656, "upper95": 0.004390253336176896 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0007988992276107453, "upper80": 0.005278639530542036, "lower95": 0.00039781473576551776, "upper95": 0.008031572229169658 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.0005462946584654674, "upper80": 0.00853502931158482, "lower95": 0.000244701186670517, "upper95": 0.01723904282008395 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0013316253933972784, "upper80": 0.015872549693640974, "lower95": 0.00048575388099613207, "upper95": 0.029656956307877836 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0006719180256967151, "upper80": 0.009651728439611795, "lower95": 0.000305305081392856, "upper95": 0.017816499551889485 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.004154454386644903, "upper80": 0.010796952806652202, "lower95": 0.0033549454616478122, "upper95": 0.014731707403278445 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.00045458245558649033, "upper80": 0.006271146870076578, "lower95": 0.000219312459117463, "upper95": 0.011959348708864196 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 2.5223840208156778e-05, "upper80": 0.0008570626967017437, "lower95": 9.021592302144279e-06, "upper95": 0.0016142476444483585 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0011923982289866657, "upper80": 0.016481504531436417, "lower95": 0.000487238482683198, "upper95": 0.03148997999991586 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0006830451992031625, "upper80": 0.011474236073144765, "lower95": 0.00027501006740123527, "upper95": 0.023289565116475945 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0002613025366002348, "upper80": 0.0024799217233225186, "lower95": 0.00013937351423875855, "upper95": 0.005387103582508712 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.00020098792910524786, "upper80": 0.004858806842268329, "lower95": 6.122388618408756e-05, "upper95": 0.010389959342087985 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.000794418304502571, "upper80": 0.0071087758956727065, "lower95": 0.000469344953452854, "upper95": 0.011400787107046234 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 2.5223840208156778e-05, "upper80": 0.0008570626967017437, "lower95": 9.021592302144279e-06, "upper95": 0.0016142476444483585 } } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "wins": 1, "losses": 8, "games": 9, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0015511493235628583, "strength": 0.0015523366331234303, "strength_record": 0.0010597545874725652, "adv_record": 0.0007532387184487439, "adv_strength": 0.001125616247044474, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005448865723519325, "adv_full": 0.00015372477250374028, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013440504790306208, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0001873845309388283, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0015141346500833744, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0002505219844948893, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00032260549872407203, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00016325161199998362, "adv_add_four_factors": 2.3184691925753876e-05, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005737886763257169, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0006977342639086222, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00017256590255298825, "adv_selected": 0.00032260549872407203 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.0007612754744171921, "upper80": 0.0029283722563387717, "lower95": 0.0005147580032152725, "upper95": 0.0041517182082433084 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.0008455273573045787, "upper80": 0.0028119709091541227, "lower95": 0.0006109855979887461, "upper95": 0.0035565744847337183 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0005348637930269671, "upper80": 0.001933561975395986, "lower95": 0.00037282404862441727, "upper95": 0.002692945900003927 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.0002722282197024529, "upper80": 0.0019423910821241431, "lower95": 0.00013678021463590776, "upper95": 0.002651519600429634 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.0004160775391428332, "upper80": 0.0023944020294098963, "lower95": 0.0002331532136413555, "upper95": 0.003518204607748029 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.00017936020662347039, "upper80": 0.0013955646010268107, "lower95": 7.747367536807766e-05, "upper95": 0.002089257018593637 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 6.695735778919892e-05, "upper80": 0.0003198731038090971, "lower95": 4.3627876912066284e-05, "upper95": 0.00043377114290647794 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0002978310233527592, "upper80": 0.004311400941003488, "lower95": 0.00011833071673352156, "upper95": 0.007547690965290813 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 8.689737981505922e-05, "upper80": 0.00037797480942888286, "lower95": 5.503624912157661e-05, "upper95": 0.0005183846130005881 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0009251721355248778, "upper80": 0.0023462831614899696, "lower95": 0.0007569762385220872, "upper95": 0.002937235104323126 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 9.940610148321639e-05, "upper80": 0.0005210409086874791, "lower95": 6.744077218421531e-05, "upper95": 0.0007173426333064489 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 7.24921261781999e-05, "upper80": 0.0007660395235907759, "lower95": 2.6558327740578426e-05, "upper95": 0.0011861745635823797 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 7.017888847890631e-05, "upper80": 0.00037495894553793625, "lower95": 4.427219242519082e-05, "upper95": 0.0005966023503861225 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 2.8717650465958024e-06, "upper80": 6.24680132446004e-05, "lower95": 1.0031582743364712e-06, "upper95": 0.00013979153206706803 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.00027652026079753313, "upper80": 0.0011056611751652924, "lower95": 0.00018246292575722526, "upper95": 0.0015053680394438572 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.00013358268289656244, "upper80": 0.0020122260736529078, "lower95": 4.848914182067764e-05, "upper95": 0.003455073725812212 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 8.03512063384289e-05, "upper80": 0.0003408434844773928, "lower95": 5.898891218598051e-05, "upper95": 0.00047733042808714265 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 7.24921261781999e-05, "upper80": 0.0007660395235907759, "lower95": 2.6558327740578426e-05, "upper95": 0.0011861745635823797 } } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "wins": 5, "losses": 6, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011817715763014497, "strength": 0.02082776047661167, "strength_record": 0.013874169445391412, "adv_record": 0.00856061924602028, "adv_strength": 0.01905563716726997, "adv_strength_record": 0.009537955493782745, "adv_full": 0.01692546188294148, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014259431790904172, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018930167131570304, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019339720992320487, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.020488176120820763, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.007761960724369009, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021963176317292003, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01090808808652744, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01746316729249773, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.014764607500574123, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013530499746634625, "adv_selected": 0.007761960724369009 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.008601932729747705, "upper80": 0.015512815853320297, "lower95": 0.007193498682444791, "upper95": 0.017896992034894185 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.01755658997127805, "upper80": 0.024288765763630538, "lower95": 0.015953009607930366, "upper95": 0.025690650767947232 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.010473299958113707, "upper80": 0.017596045700622544, "lower95": 0.009116248391355447, "upper95": 0.019794846767194303 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.0053509094695050165, "upper80": 0.013031526994185583, "lower95": 0.0038663047813003383, "upper95": 0.014880507102754882 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.014198315724308436, "upper80": 0.023335352959365337, "lower95": 0.011843157304964502, "upper95": 0.025625799401190145 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.005828517442675859, "upper80": 0.013817779475916791, "lower95": 0.004453644992491568, "upper95": 0.01615316494743794 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.00871052162687775, "upper80": 0.031216044765347842, "lower95": 0.006366753005108215, "upper95": 0.04075970845004129 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.006930489033969617, "upper80": 0.02250023706118553, "lower95": 0.004801985661018688, "upper95": 0.027633632277882958 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.00947937935336978, "upper80": 0.035817152502037854, "lower95": 0.006954829619387792, "upper95": 0.04739681628954444 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.015842814468645453, "upper80": 0.022745363629869737, "lower95": 0.01451501856550805, "upper95": 0.02502088060059117 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.009992958968617608, "upper80": 0.0387120419615414, "lower95": 0.0070472078553987004, "upper95": 0.05206174927412956 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0025460259554683385, "upper80": 0.017281766022539644, "lower95": 0.0014462761131678445, "upper95": 0.028430520058377724 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.013664431659002146, "upper80": 0.03334816218596706, "lower95": 0.010314788950691156, "upper95": 0.04338538915571597 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0033773121598974776, "upper80": 0.024874231886045532, "lower95": 0.0016876209432765078, "upper95": 0.038104968078013224 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.011232639564798379, "upper80": 0.023949170636255325, "lower95": 0.00881837512790525, "upper95": 0.027765664069522283 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0083232418940489, "upper80": 0.01986630762342193, "lower95": 0.006438938385531837, "upper95": 0.023282207137403175 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.006647094145808341, "upper80": 0.02615881600926336, "lower95": 0.004675022104391646, "upper95": 0.03827075073950584 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.0025460259554683385, "upper80": 0.017281766022539644, "lower95": 0.0014462761131678445, "upper95": 0.028430520058377724 } } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "wins": 7, "losses": 4, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03462670376261803, "strength": 0.03806609009729139, "strength_record": 0.03570066759931859, "adv_record": 0.030998287737530744, "adv_strength": 0.036759595458562375, "adv_strength_record": 0.03179324846210274, "adv_full": 0.00825142845027263, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03433749671128028, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008943670574699253, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015065188832126025, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013721999555392238, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005919363140327999, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01610709008076829, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04196144231288024, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0054838866039781, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01913282208318464, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010382962361873298, "adv_selected": 0.005919363140327999 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.031052436052628953, "upper80": 0.037498948602827736, "lower95": 0.029059967747540487, "upper95": 0.03879034858277361 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.03551264392227679, "upper80": 0.04007568717659969, "lower95": 0.03403256693186362, "upper95": 0.040664590659655046 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.03252075351202824, "upper80": 0.038074526227518876, "lower95": 0.03073145258580091, "upper95": 0.03937263003475444 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.025895207456933383, "upper80": 0.03569762680324245, "lower95": 0.022679527000193152, "upper95": 0.037086224803794615 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.03223199090206926, "upper80": 0.03959724260228185, "lower95": 0.029489302321976302, "upper95": 0.04064050830381142 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.026210804959861958, "upper80": 0.03575921969139127, "lower95": 0.023360469513230196, "upper95": 0.03751282794566832 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.0047056370603423955, "upper80": 0.01194964922507337, "lower95": 0.0036021062259631, "upper95": 0.016363295298221905 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.026603853581543567, "upper80": 0.03744798048727614, "lower95": 0.023220574602637403, "upper95": 0.0387357632383806 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.005091641776067509, "upper80": 0.012753557816762039, "lower95": 0.0037928676182701596, "upper95": 0.017076948038825996 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.009852028916584049, "upper80": 0.02085983125714255, "lower95": 0.008227602708311302, "upper95": 0.027590992774460286 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.008571842288249084, "upper80": 0.019422479661325032, "lower95": 0.007006832128976553, "upper95": 0.02397615334759623 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0019246179048903267, "upper80": 0.012255734205359465, "lower95": 0.0011041320447937543, "upper95": 0.01911815908130696 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.010126265114859302, "upper80": 0.02111485637987017, "lower95": 0.00812351331798191, "upper95": 0.0265634561085866 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.025610002078475306, "upper80": 0.049825989676137765, "lower95": 0.020382420141552834, "upper95": 0.058992108568910365 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0030542682723710573, "upper80": 0.008694250847963152, "lower95": 0.002279684443201099, "upper95": 0.012052555750193922 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0089441195620339, "upper80": 0.027521565106693006, "lower95": 0.005715903579004428, "upper95": 0.033316862279590465 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.005867598279354243, "upper80": 0.014603302784713128, "lower95": 0.0045964077730149605, "upper95": 0.01901018274491074 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.0019246179048903267, "upper80": 0.012255734205359465, "lower95": 0.0011041320447937543, "upper95": 0.01911815908130696 } } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "wins": 5, "losses": 4, "games": 9, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02147385374788317, "strength": 0.022010209889291196, "strength_record": 0.02016749184244255, "adv_record": 0.017497165292835563, "adv_strength": 0.020237298003103907, "adv_strength_record": 0.016630131074355868, "adv_full": 0.07713817683811108, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02494001354944236, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0791847855437027, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.030035161871738412, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0869385931750738, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.12040906093708624, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02032082891201563, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014409920846011004, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.08046245880098886, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008758231300297951, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.09548657965083747, "adv_selected": 0.12040906093708624 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.01755165327479656, "upper80": 0.025330914354731594, "lower95": 0.015624424542614543, "upper95": 0.027505214536513323 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.01872643651148168, "upper80": 0.025428429122334045, "lower95": 0.017099117148939327, "upper95": 0.026794015626245463 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.01670816771378537, "upper80": 0.023422868830723607, "lower95": 0.014990237668027704, "upper95": 0.025392852635981556 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.012848943981322008, "upper80": 0.022810288516474545, "lower95": 0.010331158316387907, "upper95": 0.024714293078397908 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.015305238842041373, "upper80": 0.02449307540392835, "lower95": 0.012874981846939351, "upper95": 0.026731114052002937 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.01209686747996422, "upper80": 0.021250324114626188, "lower95": 0.00929978497192743, "upper95": 0.023325841513764746 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.046432240790883775, "upper80": 0.10974167157045914, "lower95": 0.037037727287887734, "upper95": 0.1325612777753028 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.014977884066508625, "upper80": 0.03402162556685822, "lower95": 0.011106258390207166, "upper95": 0.039285781045063695 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0494283455006096, "upper80": 0.11176775098488027, "lower95": 0.040359424560892476, "upper95": 0.13359072748614204 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.025569671449068174, "upper80": 0.03406609877253387, "lower95": 0.023390216038392166, "upper95": 0.036036864228857136 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.051891359608747696, "upper80": 0.12628335930335444, "lower95": 0.03952969684616241, "upper95": 0.1576093562511456 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0658817321891253, "upper80": 0.1939156211385116, "lower95": 0.04287404197301648, "upper95": 0.25239343779361395 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.01211914614240944, "upper80": 0.03067077705706141, "lower95": 0.009825650260472238, "upper95": 0.03769364091972034 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.005600635414965381, "upper80": 0.02385521322145957, "lower95": 0.004116893245627739, "upper95": 0.03177002157922552 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.05049475493846055, "upper80": 0.12260695011787355, "lower95": 0.04241002527830045, "upper95": 0.15177667426424088 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0040823725325744705, "upper80": 0.01517573759341309, "lower95": 0.0027017530429675287, "upper95": 0.018677469411530614 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.06134479260792862, "upper80": 0.12710383111753976, "lower95": 0.050746912972664704, "upper95": 0.14707207022606503 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.0658817321891253, "upper80": 0.1939156211385116, "lower95": 0.04287404197301648, "upper95": 0.25239343779361395 } } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "wins": 7, "losses": 3, "games": 10, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05044502196252021, "strength": 0.051616637353454654, "strength_record": 0.05226966814150861, "adv_record": 0.04863277918832373, "adv_strength": 0.051222959462308294, "adv_strength_record": 0.05031825177172419, "adv_full": 0.043305480974198236, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.045537201884592364, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0440160129391194, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07761038499717661, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.029330626978417863, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02263622709485217, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06273212543339587, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.025610928224483492, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.052334442874797445, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03937176383121104, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04289824652931681, "adv_selected": 0.02263622709485217 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.048665434496336694, "upper80": 0.05102402716731149, "lower95": 0.04737174372804819, "upper95": 0.0510705314887469 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.05068030364478617, "upper80": 0.05173808316197112, "lower95": 0.04988592330654027, "upper95": 0.05174429115603708 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.05065763170446781, "upper80": 0.05265421577555325, "lower95": 0.0496637163863346, "upper95": 0.05273454239265767 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.044967280205552365, "upper80": 0.050746682255958034, "lower95": 0.04212646943286598, "upper95": 0.0510240611423024 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.048762338956222256, "upper80": 0.051726071020774374, "lower95": 0.046745345340115076, "upper95": 0.0517434017840754 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.04576129634727136, "upper80": 0.05189772354538955, "lower95": 0.0435002561689632, "upper95": 0.05250689706808131 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.02796583274427838, "upper80": 0.051613451697281126, "lower95": 0.023700795539535212, "upper95": 0.05815862531560326 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.03365012632632268, "upper80": 0.05130221575728311, "lower95": 0.028446471661859124, "upper95": 0.05725510954206886 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.027998816914326017, "upper80": 0.05253073933620127, "lower95": 0.023955740710604728, "upper95": 0.058794594089016876 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.06658584133789422, "upper80": 0.08617839493654281, "lower95": 0.059416151474559795, "upper95": 0.08958671827818333 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.019572096231710696, "upper80": 0.03447427839013045, "lower95": 0.016802538087063536, "upper95": 0.03914477686235289 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.010827003276326748, "upper80": 0.03454366449958589, "lower95": 0.008048464155684233, "upper95": 0.04313217719568527 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.04069292769949253, "upper80": 0.07858839975785845, "lower95": 0.03477474290848882, "upper95": 0.08868726380042091 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.011939687349442268, "upper80": 0.03573343009492987, "lower95": 0.009253521533551547, "upper95": 0.04592190248252071 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.03516258473356221, "upper80": 0.06636560675906525, "lower95": 0.029283401402910383, "upper95": 0.07548034256677053 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.02391849966330076, "upper80": 0.04827148040006685, "lower95": 0.01814933409665196, "upper95": 0.05480974608576448 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.027751340692580662, "upper80": 0.054041974029641164, "lower95": 0.023456680111124357, "upper95": 0.0640166009462447 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.010827003276326748, "upper80": 0.03454366449958589, "lower95": 0.008048464155684233, "upper95": 0.04313217719568527 } } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "wins": 8, "losses": 3, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05927205123004009, "strength": 0.07794567656833158, "strength_record": 0.07165377720589884, "adv_record": 0.058986681925510626, "adv_strength": 0.08025938394510411, "adv_strength_record": 0.06863612515585112, "adv_full": 0.08198225332900719, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06469759724911067, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08532044832576993, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.041101041282623305, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10646977315440816, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03815837254728912, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.09137414186609188, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.17155055414115142, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.05909423902595565, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.11566395156304908, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06873401363991005, "adv_selected": 0.03815837254728912 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.05818547552418195, "upper80": 0.05931134805929593, "lower95": 0.05702667716413023, "upper95": 0.059318565075523605 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.07266795678642761, "upper80": 0.0820323665528691, "lower95": 0.07018517654930077, "upper95": 0.08374556988759392 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.06561182561510433, "upper80": 0.07632361741451024, "lower95": 0.0629191813759521, "upper95": 0.07856575204855137 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.05690146671425577, "upper80": 0.05929199709119835, "lower95": 0.05491743514265639, "upper95": 0.05931742942202898 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.07423291481979624, "upper80": 0.08539654715362902, "lower95": 0.07030521477972132, "upper95": 0.0872051047118795 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.058646552533361415, "upper80": 0.07659652022156209, "lower95": 0.05322699175349449, "upper95": 0.08062380573006311 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.04291055609051467, "upper80": 0.10640283052420604, "lower95": 0.03207707052287467, "upper95": 0.12110906024450957 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.04813261664557378, "upper80": 0.07795937368354612, "lower95": 0.039617453287873486, "upper95": 0.08864247104988071 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.04528471130517651, "upper80": 0.10865185252009164, "lower95": 0.033760102088603465, "upper95": 0.12164289977469954 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.03183068074989753, "upper80": 0.049425535313448996, "lower95": 0.028305750428784176, "upper95": 0.0557092113987416 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0639359839061757, "upper80": 0.13324941364503962, "lower95": 0.0492118223014828, "upper95": 0.14888581391598157 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.02083655295188206, "upper80": 0.05376243901997531, "lower95": 0.01595894656689777, "upper95": 0.06530558529713172 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.05272032834086252, "upper80": 0.11946348447730903, "lower95": 0.04141860276521695, "upper95": 0.1361685642628698 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.10912431755443872, "upper80": 0.2056083952242792, "lower95": 0.08682790579525633, "upper95": 0.23051192181059232 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0358552116743302, "upper80": 0.07911143843538644, "lower95": 0.02760162644143706, "upper95": 0.09138165643600353 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.07945823059946756, "upper80": 0.14302427859526276, "lower95": 0.06684986094354195, "upper95": 0.17414020395392144 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.037102370626609614, "upper80": 0.08576471566846545, "lower95": 0.02851161295523718, "upper95": 0.1002675798013988 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.02083655295188206, "upper80": 0.05376243901997531, "lower95": 0.01595894656689777, "upper95": 0.06530558529713172 } } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "wins": 8, "losses": 3, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05927205123004009, "strength": 0.10091911031470868, "strength_record": 0.08237471881230589, "adv_record": 0.058986681925510626, "adv_strength": 0.1063463354621697, "adv_strength_record": 0.07617864754075289, "adv_full": 0.07301202998436128, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.061249881179746016, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07296699599879874, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0786315129509429, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.060415256359593286, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03277861428610016, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.10681184569057968, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.128865769254114, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04505301153463522, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.044777575692125655, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.08456356189387863, "adv_selected": 0.03277861428610016 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.05818547552418195, "upper80": 0.05931134805929593, "lower95": 0.05702667716413023, "upper95": 0.059318565075523605 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.0900528028542256, "upper80": 0.11092615090720404, "lower95": 0.08544268221271137, "upper95": 0.11585358742592655 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.07063947490154825, "upper80": 0.09367242982166536, "lower95": 0.06600347540986613, "upper95": 0.09927068247111928 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.05690146671425577, "upper80": 0.05929199709119835, "lower95": 0.05491743514265639, "upper95": 0.05931742942202898 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.09310347653689309, "upper80": 0.12132553985811434, "lower95": 0.08565986546916214, "upper95": 0.12890136447184275 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.05885876267842323, "upper80": 0.0951119684173333, "lower95": 0.05067067886612298, "upper95": 0.10592549775879369 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.04682742208071786, "upper80": 0.09392696291456525, "lower95": 0.03929139096814854, "upper95": 0.10872174662641307 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.04126005313378231, "upper80": 0.08007909987282508, "lower95": 0.033421608739709556, "upper95": 0.09107833255200432 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.046991652414041414, "upper80": 0.09193511904418002, "lower95": 0.04004176674372764, "upper95": 0.10727378912138101 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.07130077837241208, "upper80": 0.08365622675287043, "lower95": 0.06742272057486255, "upper95": 0.0867465632516605 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.039140691285409035, "upper80": 0.08143286776984725, "lower95": 0.03255505154612372, "upper95": 0.09765029499666343 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0161704202013968, "upper80": 0.05151301423005937, "lower95": 0.011697714941549349, "upper95": 0.06525879021199166 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.07572650682573367, "upper80": 0.12993605322252363, "lower95": 0.06739570286742563, "upper95": 0.14583250427778874 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.080691831124338, "upper80": 0.1665868579967947, "lower95": 0.057660043260955474, "upper95": 0.1940860552372863 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.02971011095502129, "upper80": 0.06185462929169686, "lower95": 0.024135440736896694, "upper95": 0.07515878420083526 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.02552023985183547, "upper80": 0.06307712741670511, "lower95": 0.018136488469789224, "upper95": 0.07596644823331929 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.05590027136856926, "upper80": 0.10635931267450335, "lower95": 0.04724354527399509, "upper95": 0.11984758354001192 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.0161704202013968, "upper80": 0.05151301423005937, "lower95": 0.011697714941549349, "upper95": 0.06525879021199166 } } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "wins": 3, "losses": 8, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004033257303750999, "strength": 0.007948931719852644, "strength_record": 0.004439083051877516, "adv_record": 0.002364137093501622, "adv_strength": 0.006671596985158896, "adv_strength_record": 0.0024741814542819716, "adv_full": 0.0010898496003851719, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0038430169425789367, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0011651563031001456, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0032764679160058783, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001987671531692912, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00045245365212493924, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002566713667058577, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0019997198456249156, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013158708903732207, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003037114816140128, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010148317175122344, "adv_selected": 0.00045245365212493924 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.0023828497008719783, "upper80": 0.0064174481435794375, "lower95": 0.001780677372248299, "upper95": 0.008257324399986509 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.005698342482401226, "upper80": 0.010915039235109614, "lower95": 0.004755963869333072, "upper95": 0.012336776082597284 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0028266876799009017, "upper80": 0.006567301246107566, "lower95": 0.0021611158948916243, "upper95": 0.00823346897611529 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.0011056972552763622, "upper80": 0.004757207824842612, "lower95": 0.0006591283328534291, "upper95": 0.005970670847115741 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.0038327197853623525, "upper80": 0.010027361423020851, "lower95": 0.0027582149832174004, "upper95": 0.012267683915835798 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0011558389697201245, "upper80": 0.00473969010915196, "lower95": 0.0006908851950887507, "upper95": 0.0059388280562127525 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.00044624659556372173, "upper80": 0.0020791827142831723, "lower95": 0.00031366730887357933, "upper95": 0.002963917516353352 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0012922569282293845, "upper80": 0.007893599379323856, "lower95": 0.0007108347322741712, "upper95": 0.011410067853192998 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0004824829198359647, "upper80": 0.0022495641590632655, "lower95": 0.00033731294237275073, "upper95": 0.0031680627539946316 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0023133701685181564, "upper80": 0.004343804994635568, "lower95": 0.0019970382858011835, "upper95": 0.005209516841993519 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.000818074491244264, "upper80": 0.0038971662205970307, "lower95": 0.000534395663435931, "upper95": 0.005580539778556684 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 8.806932656792284e-05, "upper80": 0.0012715627329590864, "lower95": 3.5384323881006045e-05, "upper95": 0.0021074348096920704 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0012749414752108745, "upper80": 0.00446453358610778, "lower95": 0.0009062094078178542, "upper95": 0.006041235916180712 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0004513438853285057, "upper80": 0.004160706331689704, "lower95": 0.00022609470246509692, "upper95": 0.008573890410142886 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.000770882621115048, "upper80": 0.001907582963883521, "lower95": 0.0005928725536059589, "upper95": 0.0023126010971330343 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0012972615137440424, "upper80": 0.004839991802868435, "lower95": 0.0008352521848270476, "upper95": 0.006848831154894363 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0004090112036647278, "upper80": 0.002197867205256557, "lower95": 0.00029217354512784115, "upper95": 0.003196190864536473 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 8.806932656792284e-05, "upper80": 0.0012715627329590864, "lower95": 3.5384323881006045e-05, "upper95": 0.0021074348096920704 } } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "wins": 2, "losses": 7, "games": 9, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002992042124341166, "strength": 0.011505795027451256, "strength_record": 0.0045628750804375074, "adv_record": 0.0016536416432352732, "adv_strength": 0.009982041334546578, "adv_strength_record": 0.0021997761068198807, "adv_full": 0.002365214608527961, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003109382204085005, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002504790678015111, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006318439809962632, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0020545492467765234, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00020160111343092382, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008966592956844474, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004139717369874706, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0018134124857448186, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003949402118987378, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0020559371201301435, "adv_selected": 0.00020160111343092382 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.001668152500387803, "upper80": 0.005022064960417562, "lower95": 0.0012082403103994795, "upper95": 0.00666074809455724 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.008777450268684686, "upper80": 0.014838583372171319, "lower95": 0.007568848640814638, "upper95": 0.016349679767426288 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0026330801338882823, "upper80": 0.007227509796042041, "lower95": 0.002076103730388197, "upper95": 0.00896106128566038 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.0007135369712970406, "upper80": 0.003595710552647547, "lower95": 0.0004032256446974761, "upper95": 0.004632954285710526 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.006336586412566296, "upper80": 0.013868202374059025, "lower95": 0.004825995994399963, "upper95": 0.016277398809630188 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0008886173200711677, "upper80": 0.0045362922908890315, "lower95": 0.0005640350783305996, "upper95": 0.00622673838191194 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.001146077674283004, "upper80": 0.003616732165512596, "lower95": 0.0008150869359386453, "upper95": 0.00488968195734031 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0009515389914461204, "upper80": 0.0070570015024754495, "lower95": 0.0004995541184911929, "upper95": 0.01064700635387843 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.00122319250177578, "upper80": 0.0038045914186253115, "lower95": 0.0008776377936755882, "upper95": 0.005040673819993292 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.004491674532214199, "upper80": 0.008648915652860979, "lower95": 0.0037660156398484396, "upper95": 0.010479087448597121 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.001005936958680851, "upper80": 0.003191350079394402, "lower95": 0.000703077307614194, "upper95": 0.004181693613720264 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 3.215561766623674e-05, "upper80": 0.0005789278462340346, "lower95": 1.5450641148904956e-05, "upper95": 0.0010034226621541238 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.004651999340464098, "upper80": 0.01339861859853048, "lower95": 0.0035995212051353385, "upper95": 0.019926385733493254 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0011768055041957008, "upper80": 0.007689755789777321, "lower95": 0.0007653962652288272, "upper95": 0.011920817347782496 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0009822096145365934, "upper80": 0.002740743002843031, "lower95": 0.0008055697056010549, "upper95": 0.003489238724111275 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0018059693139997042, "upper80": 0.006169764511142679, "lower95": 0.0013567682297969481, "upper95": 0.00803625314054226 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0008989611903766158, "upper80": 0.0035165530619159888, "lower95": 0.0006210551865937058, "upper95": 0.005159486414455892 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 3.215561766623674e-05, "upper80": 0.0005789278462340346, "lower95": 1.5450641148904956e-05, "upper95": 0.0010034226621541238 } } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "wins": 10, "losses": 2, "games": 12, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11096735397998368, "strength": 0.07104654935763309, "strength_record": 0.0978335115441899, "adv_record": 0.12495096261939903, "adv_strength": 0.0725508766319687, "adv_strength_record": 0.11578580764596368, "adv_full": 0.11227730713719064, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.1446060270973752, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.11716009566993056, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.052064659731454965, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1510777115885816, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.16453697302418419, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08138012331869428, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.12542263117988486, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.13291900530319753, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.25325390383462837, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.09648681190867829, "adv_selected": 0.16453697302418419 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.09756449294838418, "upper80": 0.12475382954651408, "lower95": 0.0896738732515233, "upper95": 0.13188023205451654 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.06728535566577536, "upper80": 0.07361509558402707, "lower95": 0.0654025303033474, "upper95": 0.07454043102107082 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0855669043955439, "upper80": 0.11114858298832353, "lower95": 0.0802053038086147, "upper95": 0.11718883052031875 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.10635420981552626, "upper80": 0.14291494311953232, "lower95": 0.09973725860505356, "upper95": 0.15417482693443657 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.06843889919358122, "upper80": 0.07528722008690743, "lower95": 0.06549489019065344, "upper95": 0.07574281270868483 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.09602749365490375, "upper80": 0.1341313888211241, "lower95": 0.08592607524337166, "upper95": 0.1447845528865376 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.04358010863056708, "upper80": 0.19101241899317575, "lower95": 0.026817208808851523, "upper95": 0.2402874543783716 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.09294499190384219, "upper80": 0.22181137670711512, "lower95": 0.07278714950630413, "upper95": 0.26938618896449484 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.04465399038311805, "upper80": 0.199675031543351, "lower95": 0.02993420156675178, "upper95": 0.2460873006112853 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.033191041880799715, "upper80": 0.07724428062481696, "lower95": 0.027388653982522784, "upper95": 0.09676941771230657 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.06573877530304961, "upper80": 0.2403067732268987, "lower95": 0.04039946359320655, "upper95": 0.31032066947382914 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.1365346920321947, "upper80": 0.1761039537667791, "lower95": 0.12002615289587958, "upper95": 0.18678699356955403 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.03395133396765767, "upper80": 0.1420344536473062, "lower95": 0.022410485973638396, "upper95": 0.20126098974956488 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.03741913586817145, "upper80": 0.2791974081001508, "lower95": 0.02359830066459549, "upper95": 0.44576513970262616 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.06858937882093105, "upper80": 0.21150168853307896, "lower95": 0.051189501532021196, "upper95": 0.25876203859748254 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.15187508249043039, "upper80": 0.3984001867602602, "lower95": 0.11261255277150406, "upper95": 0.46834123891951784 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.03502808691268746, "upper80": 0.16914057806381463, "lower95": 0.023764658892838426, "upper95": 0.23156420435971084 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.1365346920321947, "upper80": 0.1761039537667791, "lower95": 0.12002615289587958, "upper95": 0.18678699356955403 } } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "wins": 7, "losses": 3, "games": 10, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05044502196252021, "strength": 0.044028288183717706, "strength_record": 0.04797032785597725, "adv_record": 0.04863277918832373, "adv_strength": 0.04307476746849007, "adv_strength_record": 0.04719013845245308, "adv_full": 0.028889790123167877, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05126869602738278, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.031086504464529173, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0183006444023793, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0527827125066202, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.014716013832002143, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03949098007558607, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.11988847114617845, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01713945861740786, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06339401565686331, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.024027461287049842, "adv_selected": 0.014716013832002143 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.048665434496336694, "upper80": 0.05102402716731149, "lower95": 0.04737174372804819, "upper95": 0.0510705314887469 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.04209250695595244, "upper80": 0.04522267463039256, "lower95": 0.04085946061952177, "upper95": 0.04542733421897984 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.04532200750179044, "upper80": 0.04967468508929641, "lower95": 0.04413264464332924, "upper95": 0.050182119525048814 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.044967280205552365, "upper80": 0.050746682255958034, "lower95": 0.04212646943286598, "upper95": 0.0510240611423024 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.039282533011725074, "upper80": 0.04498606007900857, "lower95": 0.03675066955310062, "upper95": 0.04540648098216548 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.04208803923953907, "upper80": 0.04966435940698751, "lower95": 0.038359360573227204, "upper95": 0.05039620706807345 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.017357683045297032, "upper80": 0.03993676635853597, "lower95": 0.013160013636563444, "upper95": 0.04750621758483713 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.04392837490063503, "upper80": 0.051820153296897466, "lower95": 0.04020828187786361, "upper95": 0.05228350729829113 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.018570527188018982, "upper80": 0.042147571005902836, "lower95": 0.014341989641866533, "upper95": 0.0487988480668197 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.011922480669414214, "upper80": 0.025740639542316875, "lower95": 0.009847581494466117, "upper95": 0.03263320109187486 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.035312719218329326, "upper80": 0.06537089467454815, "lower95": 0.030225488164733215, "upper95": 0.07728620659688906 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.006464636220383987, "upper80": 0.02457774126257733, "lower95": 0.004374584312886015, "upper95": 0.032455612436238804 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.024713722405887907, "upper80": 0.053872754447355925, "lower95": 0.01924727576109428, "upper95": 0.06231446718683415 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.059206117587736154, "upper80": 0.19244502664808477, "lower95": 0.03826586820449283, "upper95": 0.243645124047939 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.010131967423801598, "upper80": 0.023089671243233953, "lower95": 0.007576735255467963, "upper95": 0.02732610695496172 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.041167920451648715, "upper80": 0.07377665927173593, "lower95": 0.031752866294914535, "upper95": 0.08091040866951425 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.013067191127543384, "upper80": 0.036348614187172015, "lower95": 0.009537534562246788, "upper95": 0.04588192653008116 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.006464636220383987, "upper80": 0.02457774126257733, "lower95": 0.004374584312886015, "upper95": 0.032455612436238804 } } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "wins": 4, "losses": 6, "games": 10, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008559930860219249, "strength": 0.008318846106170683, "strength_record": 0.007019824267352141, "adv_record": 0.005819094686898293, "adv_strength": 0.007010565253682512, "adv_strength_record": 0.004936548159942656, "adv_full": 0.02991377013880349, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00818305637089732, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.031148692718099814, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01011495905741429, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.038687729471432404, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013496184475992509, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01558471310798909, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01007040109408439, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02850878294941331, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012747157987235264, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.023114272782057986, "adv_selected": 0.013496184475992509 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.005852564367547612, "upper80": 0.011903978588507249, "lower95": 0.004731879609630123, "upper95": 0.014190494388901197 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.006009319129776754, "upper80": 0.011335197479556228, "lower95": 0.005035682146896738, "upper95": 0.01277159605338806 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.004870884889787754, "upper80": 0.009637324168964834, "lower95": 0.004009458607599706, "upper95": 0.011254850770250407 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.0033341884880985734, "upper80": 0.009631684839052846, "lower95": 0.00227403434410075, "upper95": 0.011314602997366738 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.004077212107126697, "upper80": 0.010435392781736696, "lower95": 0.002954685125374931, "upper95": 0.012701920371647182 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.002681994461907652, "upper80": 0.008088649334969231, "lower95": 0.0016763253227703708, "upper95": 0.009964351271278978 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.012358347390172301, "upper80": 0.05257283543316724, "lower95": 0.007891110150390143, "upper95": 0.06752140020808972 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0034576780432195886, "upper80": 0.014613493844452732, "lower95": 0.0021173396174276695, "upper95": 0.019141435053919204 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.013349650457005736, "upper80": 0.054354144314182104, "lower95": 0.008643745771223526, "upper95": 0.07225627504011371 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.007486139928146579, "upper80": 0.01338748405368918, "lower95": 0.006493232540495558, "upper95": 0.015684122498423478 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.016030531976554616, "upper80": 0.06611093497451843, "lower95": 0.01036633905075621, "upper95": 0.08854062845736417 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.006137343462311948, "upper80": 0.02147518022486414, "lower95": 0.004285391660520935, "upper95": 0.02910633535514799 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.00711681726964973, "upper80": 0.0272790941048276, "lower95": 0.004733835903527758, "upper95": 0.036720371649079875 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.003535312198747379, "upper80": 0.01590232699163376, "lower95": 0.0020426286937315183, "upper95": 0.022050380866919163 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.014350318147361006, "upper80": 0.04567772338764382, "lower95": 0.01006363110140962, "upper95": 0.05923641935892004 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0049644046613685515, "upper80": 0.02196495263040134, "lower95": 0.0032032989363739266, "upper95": 0.027677280889913367 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.011911385165248721, "upper80": 0.03729471235480602, "lower95": 0.00831598844474228, "upper95": 0.05115257090249269 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.006137343462311948, "upper80": 0.02147518022486414, "lower95": 0.004285391660520935, "upper95": 0.02910633535514799 } } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "wins": 1, "losses": 9, "games": 10, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014525202583155566, "strength": 0.002207421334093968, "strength_record": 0.0012339412930965914, "adv_record": 0.0006962765348852995, "adv_strength": 0.0016518899537633683, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005922815412697267, "adv_full": 0.0012675948821100087, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0014139682685222897, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0014593892126060746, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0012694529971612003, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00225205104233488, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00038298104173189703, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00115508123683665, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006196708219407622, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0011144105053981451, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008765363339744978, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009467680447275892, "adv_selected": 0.00038298104173189703 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.0007038375815723802, "upper80": 0.002774601924706658, "lower95": 0.00047265916874234844, "upper95": 0.00396002944743105 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.0012756821696208753, "upper80": 0.0037668373384628353, "lower95": 0.0009509038244585717, "upper95": 0.004650173045796414 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0006422480912571624, "upper80": 0.0022118369402570615, "lower95": 0.0004436777343016219, "upper95": 0.003041915896527279 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.00024722069209431543, "upper80": 0.0018263831341282543, "lower95": 0.00012276400096884732, "upper95": 0.002507601555486749 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.0006714948892732542, "upper80": 0.0032604018188381978, "lower95": 0.0003971235810088806, "upper95": 0.0046051913929046825 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.00021422381453844265, "upper80": 0.0014172517065112278, "lower95": 9.430502887324369e-05, "upper95": 0.002062195572825464 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.0004920988457686375, "upper80": 0.0025679697233046525, "lower95": 0.00031974878373609936, "upper95": 0.003900017438357888 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.00029452267084092987, "upper80": 0.004294508975159988, "lower95": 0.00012503381106098295, "upper95": 0.007384678714203668 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0006038350030204305, "upper80": 0.0028943646943161874, "lower95": 0.00039525204572526956, "upper95": 0.004424608949639117 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0007414339943365697, "upper80": 0.0020537894555288576, "lower95": 0.0005582609352878258, "upper95": 0.002773924814628683 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0009589658993030344, "upper80": 0.004200882334279944, "lower95": 0.0005851999409538197, "upper95": 0.006463477998695815 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 8.307970849744965e-05, "upper80": 0.0009728038030630771, "lower95": 3.48575273499226e-05, "upper95": 0.0016305375611664619 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0005260148391013097, "upper80": 0.0022395317607188307, "lower95": 0.00037858617988507454, "upper95": 0.003239565733490135 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.00013359065808002559, "upper80": 0.0017222580455451594, "lower95": 4.4279271606366555e-05, "upper95": 0.0030591793127713917 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0005309259547422728, "upper80": 0.0019837433398371416, "lower95": 0.0003477181350276392, "upper95": 0.0025441692648750015 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.00027872100821920917, "upper80": 0.0017014735166315264, "lower95": 0.0001516719316794669, "upper95": 0.0030311072134169836 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0003703395991056235, "upper80": 0.002006743647753633, "lower95": 0.00023669250618713495, "upper95": 0.003276538466518643 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 8.307970849744965e-05, "upper80": 0.0009728038030630771, "lower95": 3.48575273499226e-05, "upper95": 0.0016305375611664619 } } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "wins": 8, "losses": 3, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05927205123004009, "strength": 0.10818718901343696, "strength_record": 0.08552577875479064, "adv_record": 0.058986681925510626, "adv_strength": 0.11471743838231904, "adv_strength_record": 0.07834730436244429, "adv_full": 0.040049110849788606, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05657114728951201, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03865229507559205, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05723564596590441, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.041157397836911955, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015327406863709649, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08553133267281778, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.11405431728090681, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.027359419810919383, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06808747420446495, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.042427135439663526, "adv_selected": 0.015327406863709649 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.05818547552418195, "upper80": 0.05931134805929593, "lower95": 0.05702667716413023, "upper95": 0.059318565075523605 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.09540629303690519, "upper80": 0.12031395056196031, "lower95": 0.09008965495483033, "upper95": 0.12643188604203148 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.07202324463138689, "upper80": 0.09892944314789004, "lower95": 0.06677591687079322, "upper95": 0.1057151791668605 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.05690146671425577, "upper80": 0.05929199709119835, "lower95": 0.05491743514265639, "upper95": 0.05931742942202898 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.09895773319917145, "upper80": 0.13335606933557084, "lower95": 0.09033883291915851, "upper95": 0.14320232372333283 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.05886297611806003, "upper80": 0.10064507790481801, "lower95": 0.049962650377695206, "upper95": 0.11401440034173474 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.025274800534860867, "upper80": 0.052313720046096926, "lower95": 0.020599629623650303, "upper95": 0.0646937452753431 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.03492525545912856, "upper80": 0.07806784175211144, "lower95": 0.027502089649176917, "upper95": 0.09159772646902062 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.024163107713843824, "upper80": 0.04961177873349768, "lower95": 0.019719665209459915, "upper95": 0.06241505406042464 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.04313493738107518, "upper80": 0.07086210549843792, "lower95": 0.03790760868942763, "upper95": 0.0835814791053244 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.025517784862893307, "upper80": 0.05703295865033224, "lower95": 0.020713493375597334, "upper95": 0.07028475478069651 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0055959621955284184, "upper80": 0.03096752393375565, "lower95": 0.003714227726646502, "upper95": 0.04165557047658816 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.05709002575422781, "upper80": 0.1064941840776638, "lower95": 0.04870984674270982, "upper95": 0.11934096021471777 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.07646559772225658, "upper80": 0.1481165862342338, "lower95": 0.059379489427722205, "upper95": 0.1710844779980661 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0149672697673895, "upper80": 0.03982641711344807, "lower95": 0.011764061363864904, "upper95": 0.052784560621095426 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.03539860724836409, "upper80": 0.09353513898188377, "lower95": 0.025285994938645803, "upper95": 0.11364584423780158 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.026165768339442362, "upper80": 0.05480643307968289, "lower95": 0.0223062765348406, "upper95": 0.06594529011758028 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.0055959621955284184, "upper80": 0.03096752393375565, "lower95": 0.003714227726646502, "upper95": 0.04165557047658816 } } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "wins": 4, "losses": 7, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0069039038532435785, "strength": 0.006983974573152011, "strength_record": 0.005642912585038144, "adv_record": 0.004498719540364842, "adv_strength": 0.00579416273021976, "adv_strength_record": 0.003796026030240146, "adv_full": 0.001378113304630933, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0081666922338535, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016959237377731993, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005712570218407104, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0017219784241704569, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0018762079081299343, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0022571455061362977, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0010577088288517623, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0023985281703691693, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003150334230426609, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0016969002473937271, "adv_selected": 0.0018762079081299343 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.00452737340749811, "upper80": 0.00997760896801402, "lower95": 0.0035790082566896247, "upper95": 0.012156521646035636 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.004898796061211647, "upper80": 0.00980284900594752, "lower95": 0.004042220176651469, "upper95": 0.01117890052946865 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0037687756511494853, "upper80": 0.007967335333192911, "lower95": 0.0030210465343177718, "upper95": 0.009634249293061803 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.002432382470531294, "upper80": 0.00787360475156164, "lower95": 0.0015963626703056108, "upper95": 0.009425847173127007 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.003214357583795352, "upper80": 0.008951601954788294, "lower95": 0.0022677925167596267, "upper95": 0.01111168319284145 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0019599257650007684, "upper80": 0.006563689639435055, "lower95": 0.0011538032798618042, "upper95": 0.008233666392965246 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.0007456721541380495, "upper80": 0.0022543136592452604, "lower95": 0.0005660452732263584, "upper95": 0.0031180542261124637 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0029435626158944533, "upper80": 0.017184867432812504, "lower95": 0.0016503467511366741, "upper95": 0.02327780292995753 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0009188275081233125, "upper80": 0.0027537196585072973, "lower95": 0.0007067385248756979, "upper95": 0.003783847308495808 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.004194584514840651, "upper80": 0.007658352153683757, "lower95": 0.0036313460779196145, "upper95": 0.009123970476352576 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0009698836664233925, "upper80": 0.0026031834180462476, "lower95": 0.0007721074781952819, "upper95": 0.003220307637111347 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0006135503824334154, "upper80": 0.0033776378129357913, "lower95": 0.0003236780109370626, "upper95": 0.004635442596784626 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0011888073778471664, "upper80": 0.004044362654875448, "lower95": 0.000810136537874679, "upper95": 0.0056222249515999615 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.000328491748205495, "upper80": 0.001536844336054578, "lower95": 0.00020643873678365295, "upper95": 0.0022236956456036312 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.001302036961770401, "upper80": 0.003998997517606361, "lower95": 0.0010395329709829077, "upper95": 0.005230499572103008 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0011331729562910073, "upper80": 0.00538723981434521, "lower95": 0.0005793463595407108, "upper95": 0.007047725799401968 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0009934540760386309, "upper80": 0.002430575944798196, "lower95": 0.0008242123385532089, "upper95": 0.0030142562476246277 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.0006135503824334154, "upper80": 0.0033776378129357913, "lower95": 0.0003236780109370626, "upper95": 0.004635442596784626 } } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "wins": 5, "losses": 4, "games": 9, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02147385374788317, "strength": 0.03107919545155668, "strength_record": 0.02429616131772518, "adv_record": 0.017497165292835563, "adv_strength": 0.029472439949475928, "adv_strength_record": 0.019115198808564975, "adv_full": 0.04358703635427024, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017896931657462187, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04090139317336214, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04298198651882012, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02967461891650787, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010544843407349663, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04280717390464989, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014105887736718597, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03583289317019466, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.014291189714618402, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.030348529029241303, "adv_selected": 0.010544843407349663 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.01755165327479656, "upper80": 0.025330914354731594, "lower95": 0.015624424542614543, "upper95": 0.027505214536513323 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.02802222585370577, "upper80": 0.03386489903035551, "lower95": 0.026378085902797523, "upper95": 0.03484573545778442 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.020251231501823102, "upper80": 0.027998967481566203, "lower95": 0.01861699391874844, "upper95": 0.02971496528606227 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.012848943981322008, "upper80": 0.022810288516474545, "lower95": 0.010331158316387907, "upper95": 0.024714293078397908 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.02446566120299359, "upper80": 0.03314664771921919, "lower95": 0.021698669155613783, "upper95": 0.034802440611841304 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.013594994769330007, "upper80": 0.02408704179969527, "lower95": 0.011509935924584972, "upper95": 0.02648107831911116 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.023012732269197048, "upper80": 0.07492738558703588, "lower95": 0.01572587219735086, "upper95": 0.10392624720438641 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.010920457112275225, "upper80": 0.02295583817806935, "lower95": 0.008625133908322176, "upper95": 0.0264649337149602 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.021793481854764433, "upper80": 0.0718876972653163, "lower95": 0.014585791062539096, "upper95": 0.10060745442559968 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.03281731486027899, "upper80": 0.054945713138740124, "lower95": 0.027174294341046713, "upper95": 0.05994494867584815 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.014913773573648188, "upper80": 0.05733556804569262, "lower95": 0.010230050108275072, "upper95": 0.08157742600039156 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0050396161697158675, "upper80": 0.014971026458461944, "lower95": 0.0035507867531038894, "upper95": 0.017574140498869555 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.021114844446540167, "upper80": 0.0807178595371763, "lower95": 0.012158218765039438, "upper95": 0.10751258172866489 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.005473589621776862, "upper80": 0.028142597111410084, "lower95": 0.002298220357683366, "upper95": 0.04119899875069279 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.02262267751964979, "upper80": 0.050402548356784115, "lower95": 0.018641075217895896, "upper95": 0.060932747238545706 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.006058508999404052, "upper80": 0.025742670370076864, "lower95": 0.0040559126586205835, "upper95": 0.03318158340886322 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.018418469092392607, "upper80": 0.04833322174258546, "lower95": 0.013929312893180336, "upper95": 0.06150978529310921 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.0050396161697158675, "upper80": 0.014971026458461944, "lower95": 0.0035507867531038894, "upper95": 0.017574140498869555 } } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "wins": 8, "losses": 2, "games": 10, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09111733345724984, "strength": 0.07406854999481943, "strength_record": 0.08931369507513352, "adv_record": 0.09869314232923067, "adv_strength": 0.07591952285956995, "adv_strength_record": 0.09873621706808186, "adv_full": 0.1045670318481591, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0781514593638937, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09205378414171107, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.1346140914983676, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06878227321471192, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.052888920182813874, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.12473052945055244, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03471917901589206, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.10932842938669014, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07066973489622567, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.07834093885163754, "adv_selected": 0.052888920182813874 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.08298791586101893, "upper80": 0.09859288013937087, "lower95": 0.07781717509626415, "upper95": 0.10209738487678675 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.06965351118858959, "upper80": 0.07728591603826263, "lower95": 0.0675104923040436, "upper95": 0.0785455738956176 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.08184316175215414, "upper80": 0.09606010352059098, "lower95": 0.07783053746244696, "upper95": 0.09917159985410325 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.0884137295248358, "upper80": 0.10703661462267618, "lower95": 0.08436227497224885, "upper95": 0.11146750122318398 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.07098498359914676, "upper80": 0.07967388438542371, "lower95": 0.06761487458693449, "upper95": 0.08072716242160644 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.08798847234596752, "upper80": 0.10635939593251097, "lower95": 0.0829689475717758, "upper95": 0.1107672010184572 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.04660679399177576, "upper80": 0.1945218498661767, "lower95": 0.03035352927858799, "upper95": 0.26821780814579316 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.047203113836964385, "upper80": 0.10588352592987038, "lower95": 0.036383899472173714, "upper95": 0.13831592828025227 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.04195184567225638, "upper80": 0.17288290972571865, "lower95": 0.028421504951627274, "upper95": 0.23772021591238524 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.11020044283856183, "upper80": 0.15670514327087984, "lower95": 0.10067396111660398, "upper95": 0.16846203343425617 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.02929066626999007, "upper80": 0.1321697613792303, "lower95": 0.01799535843214455, "upper95": 0.1819084224057587 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.02273819240378309, "upper80": 0.09837155205159578, "lower95": 0.016387044415767528, "upper95": 0.14763938703948273 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.06640665566365107, "upper80": 0.20429030035270723, "lower95": 0.04823867205778476, "upper95": 0.2711322431490398 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.010893156047178356, "upper80": 0.0813901255348649, "lower95": 0.00641228041762231, "upper95": 0.11829435322095684 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.05951740865461831, "upper80": 0.1596540110362404, "lower95": 0.039289739313671884, "upper95": 0.1902078317567381 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.036891238989567726, "upper80": 0.10897305484881846, "lower95": 0.027205861101713618, "upper95": 0.13009574413090294 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0387791457187985, "upper80": 0.14844870583095798, "lower95": 0.027515848264823714, "upper95": 0.21733455316420253 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.02273819240378309, "upper80": 0.09837155205159578, "lower95": 0.016387044415767528, "upper95": 0.14763938703948273 } } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "wins": 2, "losses": 7, "games": 9, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002992042124341166, "strength": 0.005303435164581766, "strength_record": 0.003003818948249766, "adv_record": 0.0016536416432352732, "adv_strength": 0.0042927991042671036, "adv_strength_record": 0.0016092056986661686, "adv_full": 0.001965659115182312, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0026931805839802646, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0021253963038054525, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006400686998086153, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0016174250335550988, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00024180444085930406, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004934280073867731, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002493500473667491, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001331237805862252, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0014093067410705148, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0021807865723933945, "adv_selected": 0.00024180444085930406 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.001668152500387803, "upper80": 0.005022064960417562, "lower95": 0.0012082403103994795, "upper95": 0.00666074809455724 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.003551715236301721, "upper80": 0.007799792356048305, "lower95": 0.002860359386173223, "upper95": 0.00906487494448259 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0018259808695813996, "upper80": 0.004659367606215098, "lower95": 0.0013665509201929227, "upper95": 0.0061661240801296115 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.0007135369712970406, "upper80": 0.003595710552647547, "lower95": 0.0004032256446974761, "upper95": 0.004632954285710526 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.002210908782341202, "upper80": 0.0070319220205904585, "lower95": 0.001495424487237494, "upper95": 0.0090024250628845 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0007068171824666695, "upper80": 0.0032201974179851406, "lower95": 0.0003874705669948758, "upper95": 0.004290429055809987 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.000909686544384604, "upper80": 0.003322103682085237, "lower95": 0.0006681828644881706, "upper95": 0.004479932210754789 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0008060795202802216, "upper80": 0.006377512680044697, "lower95": 0.00039269298616095513, "upper95": 0.009418523965979475 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0010180096913814452, "upper80": 0.003486948541500049, "lower95": 0.0007839855682169356, "upper95": 0.004870665618539937 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.004031718462981052, "upper80": 0.009760032711625654, "lower95": 0.003250745832207205, "upper95": 0.012117090248116127 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0007540183616754837, "upper80": 0.0026680007417954196, "lower95": 0.0005747737129358016, "upper95": 0.0038274186685988754 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 4.374799837197751e-05, "upper80": 0.0006502351768277235, "lower95": 2.0471380203009458e-05, "upper95": 0.0009248610637394896 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.002477899138040094, "upper80": 0.009009515080321422, "lower95": 0.0016394645694627918, "upper95": 0.011284503896630719 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0008138517407013984, "upper80": 0.004244455713889579, "lower95": 0.0004192085717515128, "upper95": 0.005908336552383802 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0006465053493799342, "upper80": 0.002551959668603856, "lower95": 0.0004405464424958654, "upper95": 0.003456349822628659 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0004237311980879574, "upper80": 0.0033074135718260027, "lower95": 0.0002017627240586288, "upper95": 0.0049918094216489 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.001030431336160826, "upper80": 0.004000615666668295, "lower95": 0.0008164837535927067, "upper95": 0.00563130813661486 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 4.374799837197751e-05, "upper80": 0.0006502351768277235, "lower95": 2.0471380203009458e-05, "upper95": 0.0009248610637394896 } } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "wins": 9, "losses": 2, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.10145857604873205, "strength": 0.022074775677611076, "strength_record": 0.04943538870434741, "adv_record": 0.11224583351320702, "adv_strength": 0.020301987401540832, "adv_strength_record": 0.06667860670181326, "adv_full": 0.0076235596588962555, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07759285223550867, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007630614206356327, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02929901420045874, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011434708740872273, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0385667693831256, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0071895534971488685, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005174383808332837, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.021872156710193012, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.035172553433852935, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0081921915070065, "adv_selected": 0.0385667693831256 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.09064580918122501, "upper80": 0.1120974032086406, "lower95": 0.08407565304589192, "upper95": 0.11739514016293569 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.01879062429501477, "upper80": 0.02549035496299814, "lower95": 0.017162162239001636, "upper95": 0.02685385003701346 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.03435028288667827, "upper80": 0.07012403579576859, "lower95": 0.029438940519200922, "upper95": 0.08381849013260363 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.09778770161382437, "upper80": 0.12531746596350463, "lower95": 0.09242890642848531, "upper95": 0.13304047339952854 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.015366309160126494, "upper80": 0.024556066970687216, "lower95": 0.0129321600141128, "upper95": 0.026791059758972075 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.03658134002606451, "upper80": 0.11254738633579302, "lower95": 0.027592975638480993, "upper95": 0.14915247853065386 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.004097462389791433, "upper80": 0.012098164168663982, "lower95": 0.002848004183612334, "upper95": 0.015221401873499756 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.03902440360717655, "upper80": 0.1324956865574036, "lower95": 0.026300772414707397, "upper95": 0.1748678213934416 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.004173046203413382, "upper80": 0.012165998684979914, "lower95": 0.0029897650349579937, "upper95": 0.015764676401147468 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.019585618801458107, "upper80": 0.041688320697517586, "lower95": 0.016465971950050888, "upper95": 0.04945927987280101 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.006528671601668122, "upper80": 0.016924220951754266, "lower95": 0.004693187755011203, "upper95": 0.021957795967045876 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.018883023057809215, "upper80": 0.0627499170682251, "lower95": 0.012297065808868924, "upper95": 0.0817649816986015 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.003673436014702224, "upper80": 0.011874087938036371, "lower95": 0.002705281164838129, "upper95": 0.01761538264768195 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0013895974924581, "upper80": 0.011839692212283032, "lower95": 0.0008237942833433307, "upper95": 0.017932407161353494 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.011929749961051438, "upper80": 0.032325487425779155, "lower95": 0.009883444758657881, "upper95": 0.03830737936475237 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.01293935553247167, "upper80": 0.06761230163313472, "lower95": 0.007023258906749476, "upper95": 0.1064215582108298 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.00439502383439382, "upper80": 0.013273518561912018, "lower95": 0.0032287317522562715, "upper95": 0.017060484760742362 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.018883023057809215, "upper80": 0.0627499170682251, "lower95": 0.012297065808868924, "upper95": 0.0817649816986015 } } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "wins": 3, "losses": 6, "games": 9, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005771408295668977, "strength": 0.007087321203050259, "strength_record": 0.005129759358833139, "adv_record": 0.003630363943416871, "adv_strength": 0.005887642157045315, "adv_strength_record": 0.0032536887742936325, "adv_full": 0.0018891267327668035, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006564274826320515, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0020507949499764936, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008931065496484864, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001603725540284322, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009487834452288652, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003944736929492684, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0011525714332085155, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00321729922366567, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004115830625723638, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0017593990045500741, "adv_selected": 0.0009487834452288652 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.0036553566208332926, "upper80": 0.008612682493163439, "lower95": 0.002835982495943112, "upper95": 0.01068610044908106 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.004983583759128985, "upper80": 0.009923154588604387, "lower95": 0.004117515703720273, "upper95": 0.011304653114544254 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.003381004169333825, "upper80": 0.007435148794131188, "lower95": 0.0026678406227043775, "upper95": 0.008997654899965991 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.0018702513437274624, "upper80": 0.0066563031212288635, "lower95": 0.0011887139966495575, "upper95": 0.008095082847683246 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.0032791942838657677, "upper80": 0.00906765057150027, "lower95": 0.002318748901479529, "upper95": 0.01123720862778771 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0016539043086816433, "upper80": 0.0056621039176110895, "lower95": 0.0009769732630085864, "upper95": 0.00711558874376663 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.0008559898364307586, "upper80": 0.0031977358169521545, "lower95": 0.0006633203678788899, "upper95": 0.004203288492914261 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0023758995526722408, "upper80": 0.013582911514499803, "lower95": 0.0013546960087044303, "upper95": 0.018939861751121015 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0009605110308665855, "upper80": 0.0034451565281968686, "lower95": 0.0007604867356211292, "upper95": 0.004395574661206369 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.006647781640386114, "upper80": 0.011935906273398352, "lower95": 0.005471162362975926, "upper95": 0.013616038165362289 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0007513155949711092, "upper80": 0.00259391387989444, "lower95": 0.0005728322708390853, "upper95": 0.003527583394876735 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0002221540484889452, "upper80": 0.002282188310575556, "lower95": 0.00010335235251362545, "upper95": 0.003612714849204454 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0019317270851560923, "upper80": 0.0068164047989168475, "lower95": 0.001447626009186809, "upper95": 0.009247832194764613 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.00024938574810490373, "upper80": 0.0022668646254015113, "lower95": 0.00014479822330313227, "upper95": 0.004132280858166996 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0016402707552570514, "upper80": 0.005621486663708781, "lower95": 0.0012570999455123672, "upper95": 0.007351977769912501 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0017106217307911536, "upper80": 0.007438075316936652, "lower95": 0.0010273445681430256, "upper95": 0.009308516823470092 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0008249442167826365, "upper80": 0.0030204535013573833, "lower95": 0.000611306275569427, "upper95": 0.00395140824609831 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.0002221540484889452, "upper80": 0.002282188310575556, "lower95": 0.00010335235251362545, "upper95": 0.003612714849204454 } } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "wins": 6, "losses": 3, "games": 9, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04142133449668762, "strength": 0.0450485142779317, "strength_record": 0.043351886408156924, "adv_record": 0.03841284370828936, "adv_strength": 0.04416339697323856, "adv_strength_record": 0.03993796430406825, "adv_full": 0.020711882550566177, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04449190409148269, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02230881019836798, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.031640884193411364, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02430791443484079, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017901486302506393, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02903031563112406, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.030340295612312607, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.024362826822356676, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03873454638458171, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02079976617483202, "adv_selected": 0.017901486302506393 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.03846026792379838, "upper80": 0.04344173727646484, "lower95": 0.036673663088180763, "upper95": 0.044128033446216706 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.04323412659107337, "upper80": 0.04608947101554838, "lower95": 0.04205255520621726, "upper95": 0.04621951697817059 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.04069987746523271, "upper80": 0.0449516634288845, "lower95": 0.03910838494464052, "upper95": 0.0456363093798805 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.03367839611022194, "upper80": 0.0422260153250776, "lower95": 0.030457304377214285, "upper95": 0.043182899965985205 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.0405251677751331, "upper80": 0.04589793407241409, "lower95": 0.03804660438648628, "upper95": 0.046194423491633815 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.034316503397170815, "upper80": 0.043169480719468994, "lower95": 0.031824724281002685, "upper95": 0.04432763034224111 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.010463739512705725, "upper80": 0.033321946908420975, "lower95": 0.007378397023407827, "upper95": 0.04046589179283293 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.03531015763174698, "upper80": 0.049327236503144314, "lower95": 0.030186161450634214, "upper95": 0.05286878769595438 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.011104946083662706, "upper80": 0.03591705275274407, "lower95": 0.007696064615341883, "upper95": 0.044523395568560394 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.026532514527920718, "upper80": 0.03563474114419444, "lower95": 0.024239993944169074, "upper95": 0.03823530990526216 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.01244865066258342, "upper80": 0.04012031722968052, "lower95": 0.008810607917921083, "upper95": 0.04952867805731047 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.008541253680636603, "upper80": 0.02661280445477734, "lower95": 0.00602371486240955, "upper95": 0.033641926067413806 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.015816240217716826, "upper80": 0.049182115909295686, "lower95": 0.011387057610060116, "upper95": 0.06397213804977181 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.012935344339703966, "upper80": 0.054314532826344956, "lower95": 0.008813616627172107, "upper95": 0.07398426951952453 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.014984125942645938, "upper80": 0.032370709999456196, "lower95": 0.010971242039168825, "upper95": 0.03767387498677326 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.020145050697381366, "upper80": 0.057489800329334366, "lower95": 0.01419008618609973, "upper95": 0.07292282700878397 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.011984679941025846, "upper80": 0.028718764068548366, "lower95": 0.008957934093241136, "upper95": 0.03322000253900983 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.008541253680636603, "upper80": 0.02661280445477734, "lower95": 0.00602371486240955, "upper95": 0.033641926067413806 } } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "wins": 1, "losses": 9, "games": 10, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014525202583155566, "strength": 0.002843280467195777, "strength_record": 0.0014146092114417884, "adv_record": 0.0006962765348852995, "adv_strength": 0.002176505166021062, "adv_strength_record": 0.0006559968606578026, "adv_full": 0.0006239776429722769, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013290188757455444, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006816503540199575, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0010680125233147205, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012478005165031177, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00022782189074264274, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0009084680335668298, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0007665258453232896, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000671626480403539, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0011066646503964668, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005373470197193164, "adv_selected": 0.00022782189074264274 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.0007038375815723802, "upper80": 0.002774601924706658, "lower95": 0.00047265916874234844, "upper95": 0.00396002944743105 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.0017146139997046414, "upper80": 0.004647991514747536, "lower95": 0.0013069543178315893, "upper95": 0.005638808705945236 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.000758084898243159, "upper80": 0.0024636106155124476, "lower95": 0.0005272338714885669, "upper95": 0.0034685632986561467 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.00024722069209431543, "upper80": 0.0018263831341282543, "lower95": 0.00012276400096884732, "upper95": 0.002507601555486749 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.0009473269971901972, "upper80": 0.004070710703896586, "lower95": 0.0005823989930948027, "upper95": 0.005588791399664268 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.00023966688071881142, "upper80": 0.001552200387663026, "lower95": 0.00011156896095524866, "upper95": 0.002234887210209423 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.00024323632954125952, "upper80": 0.001274388325405063, "lower95": 0.0001472603124220371, "upper95": 0.0018031372756505237 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.00030016761323185223, "upper80": 0.003828376740956109, "lower95": 0.0001232600620037203, "upper95": 0.0060411784013889094 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0002719058420594144, "upper80": 0.0013764707633296437, "lower95": 0.00016769837202379486, "upper95": 0.0018956484829047594 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0006360607379989776, "upper80": 0.001704129738400438, "lower95": 0.000478509887013028, "upper95": 0.002131894689758586 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0005787655370546688, "upper80": 0.0022233484735857023, "lower95": 0.0003595454275065847, "upper95": 0.002995188204268417 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 4.277065183361925e-05, "upper80": 0.0005813541677208895, "lower95": 1.9492184796932777e-05, "upper95": 0.0008944375462158235 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0003930303541928871, "upper80": 0.001799668110683023, "lower95": 0.0002483324194049558, "upper95": 0.0024615682920876404 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.00018184937387001786, "upper80": 0.0016151868750558778, "lower95": 9.080597606772867e-05, "upper95": 0.0023662314242524868 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0003415887397138738, "upper80": 0.001069819312845102, "lower95": 0.00026465999496880303, "upper95": 0.0013501205929271928 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.00037809009190715016, "upper80": 0.0020902203410268177, "lower95": 0.00022472679198397524, "upper95": 0.00281335616867853 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0002012995819992845, "upper80": 0.0012394945488392467, "lower95": 0.00012873510108511564, "upper95": 0.0018388247299143267 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 4.277065183361925e-05, "upper80": 0.0005813541677208895, "lower95": 1.9492184796932777e-05, "upper95": 0.0008944375462158235 } } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "wins": 9, "losses": 2, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.10145857604873205, "strength": 0.12154656626624816, "strength_record": 0.12414879789148534, "adv_record": 0.11224583351320702, "adv_strength": 0.1302339842510434, "adv_strength_record": 0.13274530295534276, "adv_full": 0.19921440187109235, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10309033983595167, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.19393759144314, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.16489519023856353, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1791047776405959, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.3988648547996955, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07531513460497086, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05499049804604739, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.23470864405964928, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06153657842695027, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.269391150332388, "adv_selected": 0.3988648547996955 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.09064580918122501, "upper80": 0.1120974032086406, "lower95": 0.08407565304589192, "upper95": 0.11739514016293569 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.10509141251689784, "upper80": 0.13784387546250862, "lower95": 0.09844260600018484, "upper95": 0.14634913956316542 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.10762740422072165, "upper80": 0.14069227098487594, "lower95": 0.10083797089287236, "upper95": 0.14849706143739463 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.09778770161382437, "upper80": 0.12531746596350463, "lower95": 0.09242890642848531, "upper95": 0.13304047339952854 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.10959499031192717, "upper80": 0.15622805642082743, "lower95": 0.09875182589773746, "upper95": 0.17078580071905708 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.10831064987346306, "upper80": 0.16143058383937978, "lower95": 0.09474578381772929, "upper95": 0.18164186074404115 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.11666184093795727, "upper80": 0.3226196146196469, "lower95": 0.09129262889517142, "upper95": 0.40946579346508344 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.06951263004428183, "upper80": 0.1365393924108567, "lower95": 0.05363251358115871, "upper95": 0.1595961304027142 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.11016063731155291, "upper80": 0.3209468829657701, "lower95": 0.08274000771160868, "upper95": 0.4161346636338806 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.12202676600386395, "upper80": 0.2110755622156864, "lower95": 0.1050775464284005, "upper95": 0.23547188764403593 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.10606564441801146, "upper80": 0.2836280791181106, "lower95": 0.08535394852713213, "upper95": 0.3351359776906263 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.2781371887787742, "upper80": 0.5188309885929562, "lower95": 0.23420225725314825, "upper95": 0.5861861362144553 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.03662694801802686, "upper80": 0.1495021364381552, "lower95": 0.026040695070687448, "upper95": 0.19601398959430913 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.019869272541671226, "upper80": 0.12952111226785049, "lower95": 0.012621376350780474, "upper95": 0.17842734874651314 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.14213696056855882, "upper80": 0.3641598159163287, "lower95": 0.11007457868270999, "upper95": 0.43419893303700124 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.028261360256401066, "upper80": 0.10874919659504492, "lower95": 0.019941594680260192, "upper95": 0.15398546634999746 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.19007397031430864, "upper80": 0.38171378088232866, "lower95": 0.1442519879385496, "upper95": 0.4365142762169908 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.2781371887787742, "upper80": 0.5188309885929562, "lower95": 0.23420225725314825, "upper95": 0.5861861362144553 } } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "wins": 5, "losses": 5, "games": 10, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015461546932046051, "strength": 0.02500199557884297, "strength_record": 0.01787742201762465, "adv_record": 0.01180900515550236, "adv_strength": 0.02325195094504141, "adv_strength_record": 0.013054759037452048, "adv_full": 0.003139896102212324, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018990673112927108, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003448622754612805, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.024052848436301077, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0023859668767232793, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0021410972867282616, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0076077896241520376, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0029848882220113782, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004775489662802599, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009982851233517782, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004057061256832418, "adv_selected": 0.0021410972867282616 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.011856893738888614, "upper80": 0.01934295107471298, "lower95": 0.010198326348501416, "upper95": 0.02171529227105143 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.0217327558062364, "upper80": 0.028267149601261084, "lower95": 0.020068613151205773, "upper95": 0.029524927098143295 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.01411448203523799, "upper80": 0.021733080550243537, "lower95": 0.012605516483637393, "upper95": 0.02381395152395182 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.007936435880503865, "upper80": 0.016765103429519562, "lower95": 0.006016992270722644, "upper95": 0.01869676320625371 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.018200769850470304, "upper80": 0.027389174663288395, "lower95": 0.015612790918662599, "upper95": 0.02946766152948177 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.00851098600847872, "upper80": 0.017731530175350126, "lower95": 0.006795091181079732, "upper95": 0.020080809609387327 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.0013004879760265752, "upper80": 0.0061516946547741985, "lower95": 0.0009240147444717218, "upper95": 0.008859376460728484 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.009906331316992067, "upper80": 0.0286099298377822, "lower95": 0.007238212793467629, "upper95": 0.033872229590779006 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0014193034883137434, "upper80": 0.006545455446765694, "lower95": 0.0010099180521715636, "upper95": 0.009340800183315151 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.019511635530132746, "upper80": 0.02908673660262435, "lower95": 0.017339859499477656, "upper95": 0.032058924236454865 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0011043846258218949, "upper80": 0.004111440118067291, "lower95": 0.000773134100296541, "upper95": 0.00569529283251549 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0005887328885436862, "upper80": 0.005105050388525667, "lower95": 0.0003040377237716637, "upper95": 0.007834355343998525 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.003243386694980867, "upper80": 0.015147377697645523, "lower95": 0.0019947390653902923, "upper95": 0.019655349530631912 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0005299198318594059, "upper80": 0.007210169431323747, "lower95": 0.0002367584732035837, "upper95": 0.011662568640152738 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.002766361050254776, "upper80": 0.007530601421392287, "lower95": 0.00216147425993449, "upper95": 0.009020970141296335 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.004492693679316504, "upper80": 0.015116357147456249, "lower95": 0.002846425572808955, "upper95": 0.01947256616363277 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0017391469861717998, "upper80": 0.007608085310434191, "lower95": 0.0011286595380642819, "upper95": 0.01217900518155388 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.0005887328885436862, "upper80": 0.005105050388525667, "lower95": 0.0003040377237716637, "upper95": 0.007834355343998525 } } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "wins": 1, "losses": 9, "games": 10, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014525202583155566, "strength": 0.004077289438620418, "strength_record": 0.0017184711784767543, "adv_record": 0.0006962765348852995, "adv_strength": 0.0032235175448907367, "adv_strength_record": 0.0007587379349128818, "adv_full": 0.0004119743905253886, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0011119452675530962, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004416873377528215, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0015041227526996362, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0006891193246790646, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0002552212937126953, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0004845171348030074, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0001685810771119507, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006705507542148142, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005621809013351532, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00044450683081767757, "adv_selected": 0.0002552212937126953 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.0007038375815723802, "upper80": 0.002774601924706658, "lower95": 0.00047265916874234844, "upper95": 0.00396002944743105 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.00261245008076642, "upper80": 0.006269954370876823, "lower95": 0.0020556789766463706, "upper95": 0.007420037368967583 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0009175655854569048, "upper80": 0.003007805183758111, "lower95": 0.000633158749414543, "upper95": 0.004149753268922115 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.00024722069209431543, "upper80": 0.0018263831341282543, "lower95": 0.00012276400096884732, "upper95": 0.002507601555486749 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.0015464432538712842, "upper80": 0.005584021747735767, "lower95": 0.001004696739658769, "upper95": 0.0073627151117309966 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0002671404206846607, "upper80": 0.0018521054820766262, "lower95": 0.00013809965440413375, "upper95": 0.002598259417580522 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.0001754311454468124, "upper80": 0.0007804735461918545, "lower95": 0.0001257880689957585, "upper95": 0.0011331144319925777 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0002581106256490136, "upper80": 0.00324544317392457, "lower95": 0.00012087602499547921, "upper95": 0.005177606811950282 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.0001998617566941134, "upper80": 0.0008013793860898361, "lower95": 0.0001416927036566808, "upper95": 0.001132242032717356 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0009707508187406912, "upper80": 0.002245220357031287, "lower95": 0.0007467208517115963, "upper95": 0.0027586777598654355 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0003296676839148791, "upper80": 0.001233506435514064, "lower95": 0.0002039764082694229, "upper95": 0.0017992818383786178 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 5.046795282458362e-05, "upper80": 0.0006486295951677755, "lower95": 2.0472577730743528e-05, "upper95": 0.0011463735817179863 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.00024734943445639356, "upper80": 0.000858901561135282, "lower95": 0.00017147833467435735, "upper95": 0.0013007022113659635 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 3.599206168107485e-05, "upper80": 0.0003673627856101996, "lower95": 1.872924219627748e-05, "upper95": 0.0005963338788937066 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0003434739945086525, "upper80": 0.001069941005677611, "lower95": 0.00024855573898408277, "upper95": 0.001369534791972099 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.00017197321850100753, "upper80": 0.0011440901574474266, "lower95": 9.163478195843534e-05, "upper95": 0.0017621400210800341 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.00019914321412631899, "upper80": 0.0009020795544834404, "lower95": 0.00012832974396802656, "upper95": 0.0013033036372409733 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 5.046795282458362e-05, "upper80": 0.0006486295951677755, "lower95": 2.0472577730743528e-05, "upper95": 0.0011463735817179863 } } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "wins": 4, "losses": 7, "games": 11, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0069039038532435785, "strength": 0.005535334304624302, "strength_record": 0.0049774436713339145, "adv_record": 0.004498719540364842, "adv_strength": 0.004497710512826631, "adv_strength_record": 0.0034560381455563064, "adv_full": 0.0006294832086224722, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005661474217195996, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007290060566754672, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0022213285863862176, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001647199738533391, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001102960593727836, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0007253148617962865, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000893844890979779, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000793833516810536, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0011834669326340874, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009019652632372116, "adv_selected": 0.001102960593727836 }, "intervals": { "uniform": null, "record": { "lower80": 0.00452737340749811, "upper80": 0.00997760896801402, "lower95": 0.0035790082566896247, "upper95": 0.012156521646035636 }, "strength": { "lower80": 0.0037337972382379793, "upper80": 0.008081968573128302, "lower95": 0.0030183749429116766, "upper95": 0.009365178168262454 }, "strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0032468760943593585, "upper80": 0.007306220252353804, "lower95": 0.0026430521303102616, "upper95": 0.008658291792049556 }, "adv_record": { "lower80": 0.002432382470531294, "upper80": 0.00787360475156164, "lower95": 0.0015963626703056108, "upper95": 0.009425847173127007 }, "adv_strength": { "lower80": 0.002343362711661516, "upper80": 0.007300829707371136, "lower95": 0.0015954408227954959, "upper95": 0.009301934832751343 }, "adv_strength_record": { "lower80": 0.0016589624772742808, "upper80": 0.006101150156901556, "lower95": 0.0009798929170724373, "upper95": 0.007830253590347157 }, "adv_full": { "lower80": 0.00021797893702733972, "upper80": 0.0015098883548382458, "lower95": 0.00013831943401891554, "upper95": 0.002662565254067917 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.001957726548270758, "upper80": 0.011660937541437866, "lower95": 0.0011532919505244607, "upper95": 0.017062813494583953 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "lower80": 0.00025767768055703937, "upper80": 0.0017047900141934531, "lower95": 0.00016191980898391868, "upper95": 0.002995069009429042 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.001300712586757341, "upper80": 0.003423012615611392, "lower95": 0.0010135873457796038, "upper95": 0.004448293520638491 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "lower80": 0.0006322275810364878, "upper80": 0.0036037657538238012, "lower95": 0.0004048247701481946, "upper95": 0.005312288915929636 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.0002713378552608833, "upper80": 0.0025662672031686617, "lower95": 0.00013983530226236305, "upper95": 0.0038337085798416963 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "lower80": 0.00031146828596253134, "upper80": 0.0014695035328674277, "lower95": 0.00023342235356504936, "upper95": 0.002565126351575849 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.0001727302380106681, "upper80": 0.002359642291226369, "lower95": 8.83761286743858e-05, "upper95": 0.005188207062603506 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "lower80": 0.00034110572859869843, "upper80": 0.001437951302897366, "lower95": 0.0002659633075593302, "upper95": 0.0023427556971797364 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.0003032101491068573, "upper80": 0.0025159989792733132, "lower95": 0.00012890365980799297, "upper95": 0.004534699758323337 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "lower80": 0.00037500949765158594, "upper80": 0.0020275992401623463, "lower95": 0.0002559455526967136, "upper95": 0.003086200069057378 }, "adv_selected": { "lower80": 0.0002713378552608833, "upper80": 0.0025662672031686617, "lower95": 0.00013983530226236305, "upper95": 0.0038337085798416963 } } } ], "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.7378243647664724 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2855222403845668, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4078593029482476 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.451270181266819, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.521560101087618, "record": 1.2972873520717698 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2874206807791415, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.18231202836556415, "record": 0.3924121337332989, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.029877660000102255, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.18108588749942434, "prior_net_rating": 0.404970603216222, "retained_minutes_share": 0.07509054529377261, "rotation_box_production": 0.3366098930850719, "star_box_production": 0.41400361890416615, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11590538122054854, "efg_pct": 0.32482845230262664, "opp_efg_pct": -0.043521032606028506, "turnover_rate": 0.21278961147683165, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.04017610898004937, "oreb_pct": 0.1618213080749422, "dreb_pct": 0.16750407096976402, "ft_rate": -0.21393868638360083, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18865875954388334, "pace": 0.1049184812794932, "three_attempt_rate": 0.04604009006617896, "three_pct": 0.2442606137628536, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.13782663300253478, "opp_three_pct": 0.03413229407295374 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.043640388165259, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.7854928805774344, "record": 1.3897468802306236, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.8643507058652303, "adjusted_def_rating": 1.0831566529919623 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.3098423435180657, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21767352030798645, "record": 0.41367051893395196, "prior_net_rating": 0.4009172291352419, "retained_minutes_share": 0.07568575656371344, "rotation_box_production": 0.3248994830666506, "star_box_production": 0.4057622178135758, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11178952264995931, "efg_pct": 0.2973830803640325, "opp_efg_pct": -0.10932569244604705, "turnover_rate": 0.23629702895962254, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08612583304872028, "oreb_pct": 0.15373097463590626, "dreb_pct": 0.20131523378356203, "ft_rate": -0.21915606211956612, "opp_ft_rate": -0.20436057637419117, "pace": 0.11296436471981182, "three_attempt_rate": 0.044095455854261646, "three_pct": 0.2323661330652522, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.12518440022218041, "opp_three_pct": 0.012335719214351252 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.049406341905493, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4441261366549815, "record": 0.5954170351501463, "prior_net_rating": 0.5645206300793986, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1015073974186934 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.389077277476645, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2035153029849768, "record": 0.4156271701364208, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.008493338190407868, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17640539138322484, "rotation_box_production": 0.41815222156745924, "star_box_production": 0.455169282984132, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1088307880499429, "efg_pct": 0.31187583516408385, "opp_efg_pct": -0.044887844142874944, "turnover_rate": 0.18347842398555972, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.028761964221692814, "oreb_pct": 0.13593615737551615, "dreb_pct": 0.1731964462762283, "ft_rate": -0.21561619627590772, "opp_ft_rate": -0.2124932203773814, "pace": 0.10992137569307771, "three_attempt_rate": 0.07781492808921461, "three_pct": 0.2373728396502413, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.10690897766292513, "opp_three_pct": 0.04823711434082314 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0485268120878795, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3730606464541468, "record": 0.985686549764029, "rotation_box_production": 0.618996814617206, "star_box_production": 0.5358621540827838, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.22213985584704174 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0140512241161224, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21032348209148424, "record": 0.46299758860034457, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.05901478722494499, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.14214900911453526, "prior_net_rating": 0.576637263457812, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09037831885935677, "efg_pct": 0.47466720116278877, "opp_efg_pct": -0.04360794313737703, "turnover_rate": 0.18368879510837008, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.010523253873586961, "oreb_pct": 0.12583860713856454, "dreb_pct": 0.1949452813673239, "ft_rate": -0.2149224546281535, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17628869204664738, "pace": 0.16315631204004064, "three_attempt_rate": -0.02001696308045655, "three_pct": 0.2293264240846716, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.16138427183842527, "opp_three_pct": 0.008518482427111201 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.22544998824133, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3478174109686737, "record": 1.0249216317486338, "efg_pct": 0.9495642592210394, "opp_efg_pct": 0.10800001500278752, "turnover_rate": 0.24696403920632995, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0399321660361051, "oreb_pct": 0.24650047830660082, "dreb_pct": 0.3909535269968758, "ft_rate": -0.4094752683848447, "opp_ft_rate": -0.3178424254205603 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.172323766631379, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.22175186426567126, "record": 0.4354554570669399, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03418001566533761, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.22405392272090102, "prior_net_rating": 0.3777674398309169, "retained_minutes_share": 0.07461535721329667, "rotation_box_production": 0.35843214359362824, "star_box_production": 0.4387123087148289, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.14957393060385424, "pace": 0.15317977687983245, "three_attempt_rate": 0.07968730649781583, "three_pct": 0.3427404254328348, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.13635133020541895, "opp_three_pct": 0.026381547621891325 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0697349612277023, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.42575558113229567, "record": 1.160265725493488, "pace": 0.3650933094542559, "three_attempt_rate": 0.04944216013728143, "three_pct": 0.4737705014564772, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.15897538990017765, "opp_three_pct": 0.1563741624855119 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2945156167710237, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21776659977366788, "record": 0.411550281816837, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.018920180954167483, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.16282359838219498, "prior_net_rating": 0.38935209888232664, "retained_minutes_share": 0.0779529693508777, "rotation_box_production": 0.36158834268657314, "star_box_production": 0.3919083972380063, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1233744626663653, "efg_pct": 0.4069105362963168, "opp_efg_pct": -0.014409907894552215, "turnover_rate": 0.23601845105063723, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0846257564755874, "oreb_pct": 0.16319144551581738, "dreb_pct": 0.1716675498841654, "ft_rate": -0.20663093404737107, "opp_ft_rate": -0.20207306945372752 }, "trainingSeasons": 19, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2026, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0347741605725673, "validationSeasons": 14, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2026 } } }, "backtest": { "coverage": { "trainingSeasons": 19, "testSeasons": 9, "firstTest": 2014, "lastTest": 2026, "testYears": [ 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2026 ], "excluded": [ { "season": 1995, "reason": "Previous-season team box-score coverage below95% for at least one team.", "priorTeamCoverage": { "ATL": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHH": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 0.9878048780487805, "DAL": 0.9390243902439024, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NJN": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "SEA": 1.0, "UTA": 0.9634146341463414, "WSB": 0.9878048780487805 } }, { "season": 1996, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1996-1995-11-03-POR-VAN", "1996-1995-11-05-VAN-MIN", "1996-1995-11-07-DAL-VAN", "1996-1995-11-08-SAS-VAN" ] }, { "season": 1997, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1997-1996-11-08-CLE-VAN" ] }, { "season": 1998, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1998-1997-11-01-UTA-DEN" ] }, { "season": 1999, "reason": "At least one league team has no games before the matched calendar cutoff." }, { "season": 2000, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2000-1999-11-02-CHH-ORL" ] }, { "season": 2003, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2003-2002-10-29-LAL-SAS" ] }, { "season": 2006, "reason": "Per-team player coverage below80% at cutoff or90% in the previous season.", "currentPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 0.9850746268656716, "priorPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 0.9983739837398374, "proxy": "(PTS+ORB+DRB+AST+STL+BLK-missedFG-missedFT-TOV) per36; previous season weight0.5, current weight1, 300-minute prior-season league shrinkage; last5-game minute weights.", "currentPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 0.75, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NJN": 1.0, "NOK": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 0.8, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "SEA": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 }, "priorPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 0.9878048780487805, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 0.975609756097561, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NJN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "SEA": 1.0, "TOR": 0.9878048780487805, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 } }, { "season": 2012, "reason": "At least one league team has no games before the matched calendar cutoff." }, { "season": 2019, "reason": "Per-team player coverage below80% at cutoff or90% in the previous season.", "currentPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 0.9739884393063584, "priorPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 1.0, "proxy": "(PTS+ORB+DRB+AST+STL+BLK-missedFG-missedFT-TOV) per36; previous season weight0.5, current weight1, 300-minute prior-season league shrinkage; last5-game minute weights.", "currentPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 0.18181818181818182, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 }, "priorPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 0.9878048780487805, "BOS": 0.9878048780487805, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 } }, { "season": 2020, "reason": "Excluded under existing pandemic-season protocol." }, { "season": 2021, "reason": "At least one league team has no games before the matched calendar cutoff." }, { "season": 2025, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2025-2024-10-25-POR-NOP" ] } ] }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666658, "topPickAccuracy": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.371409536031611, "brier": 0.8936827146124009, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.452418110495007, "brier": 0.8628559097888231, "topPickAccuracy": 0.4444444444444444 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.3160597174096305, "brier": 0.8789149064010632, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.3065955940371894, "brier": 0.9239428420620016, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.4405928221618733, "brier": 0.8647070699405589, "topPickAccuracy": 0.4444444444444444 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.2957721458394293, "brier": 0.9235609197369771, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.862001564098402, "brier": 0.7547553079549042, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.300418327527788, "brier": 0.909679983830535, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2222222222222222 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.8721134799140384, "brier": 0.7495399119159202, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.2365852440939213, "brier": 0.8522678777779469, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.8970514304265431, "brier": 0.752897557872064, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.00954009996102, "brier": 0.8478047979150569, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.9924628589962987, "brier": 0.7712449594500899, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.920563530076817, "brier": 0.7588497837123809, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.9109752852338413, "brier": 0.7799398618086484, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.1672623179746284, "brier": 0.8524104011863372, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.8770854873696716, "brier": 0.7808330600335579, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 2.00954009996102, "brier": 0.8478047979150569, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 } }, "comparisons": [ { "model": "uniform", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 1.0851376642525254, "logLossCi95": [ 0.7150793418325059, 1.4558501402955062 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ 0.8189449087619717, 1.3579529931469174 ], "brierDifference": 0.0877517602656025, "brierCi95": [ 0.0006302616783450457, 0.1826524184336535 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ 0.024668488350132307, 0.18539329204784283 ] }, { "model": "record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.05534981862198069, "logLossCi95": [ -0.2088862857558965, 0.3206198792523417 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.05555473493264835, 0.13809069861486672 ], "brierDifference": 0.014767808211337767, "brierCi95": [ -0.04272423252605224, 0.07473098376142914 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.026246687345271826, 0.051500608976874536 ] }, { "model": "strength", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.13635839308537723, "logLossCi95": [ -0.15586544816868983, 0.4126816278421525 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ 0.00991427829303277, 0.25639457597482146 ], "brierDifference": -0.016058996612240195, "brierCi95": [ -0.09327482829775845, 0.05102118100906295 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.06692322556146842, 0.022614439866056543 ] }, { "model": "adv_record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.009464123372440946, "logLossCi95": [ -0.28121933327914034, 0.28120157244192473 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.18564559339031347, 0.16671734664543159 ], "brierDifference": 0.0450279356609383, "brierCi95": [ -0.020430283786326026, 0.11235353829840639 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ 0.00019249543885184616, 0.09498780147318446 ] }, { "model": "adv_strength", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.12453310475224323, "logLossCi95": [ -0.20395478837131828, 0.44623863183638823 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.010879676880662516, 0.25184755719740676 ], "brierDifference": -0.014207836460504338, "brierCi95": [ -0.10857174126993167, 0.06575168204242056 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.07798168909206006, 0.03663642867090511 ] }, { "model": "adv_strength_record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.020287571570201238, "logLossCi95": [ -0.19360552060126168, 0.16834510485404006 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.12832283745612477, 0.09548123734138694 ], "brierDifference": 0.044646013335913795, "brierCi95": [ -0.015002597218035995, 0.09910109183659192 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ 0.005698161840916168, 0.08961976037791568 ] }, { "model": "adv_full", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.45405815331122806, "logLossCi95": [ -1.1290734139210215, 0.27440419315150105 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.9097881808736743, 0.032004792138653655 ], "brierDifference": -0.12415959844615908, "brierCi95": [ -0.35068985388147117, 0.11611061210735407 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.29174353774287076, 0.028878403419223604 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.01564138988184221, "logLossCi95": [ -0.19831166795338667, 0.1701751539935272 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.13642702039233515, 0.08593075108150779 ], "brierDifference": 0.030765077429471814, "brierCi95": [ -0.01587234277881525, 0.08326532810445614 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.0022405747370988958, 0.07056631012152807 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.4439462374955918, "logLossCi95": [ -1.1545994837441023, 0.28720982763661707 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.9329999851768458, 0.059644993372325934 ], "brierDifference": -0.1293749944851431, "brierCi95": [ -0.37370006753288176, 0.11981007199563187 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.3073229070686254, 0.04538363400126634 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.07947447331570921, "logLossCi95": [ -0.36639841210192103, 0.21192368932109157 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.2422532968209618, 0.10326835367637867 ], "brierDifference": -0.02664702862311633, "brierCi95": [ -0.12251974344254016, 0.0716991651679028 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.0754936800488911, 0.019377666805443592 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.4190082869830872, "logLossCi95": [ -1.088450302724139, 0.19607298796284656 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.9067126161296284, 0.06843899463097619 ], "brierDifference": -0.12601734852899923, "brierCi95": [ -0.3370583712622419, 0.07325849033262556 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.29906090485300874, 0.035130483296727584 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.3065196174486103, "logLossCi95": [ -1.1055721823473172, 0.4387248493387275 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.7721702261266452, 0.09103260940825092 ], "brierDifference": -0.031110108486006274, "brierCi95": [ -0.2829652916385244, 0.22592394595248094 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.20579970297587646, 0.1134658720278783 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.3235968584133314, "logLossCi95": [ -0.7454205011616902, 0.13693983613195332 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.6381187799528432, 0.008243257902843403 ], "brierDifference": -0.10766994695097347, "brierCi95": [ -0.26735430778960595, 0.042380654984237466 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.2010407722399846, -0.014137738350459554 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.39549618733281333, "logLossCi95": [ -0.9013914381505667, 0.12907986056338086 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.8741939947502967, 0.1454654968286914 ], "brierDifference": -0.12006512268868239, "brierCi95": [ -0.2636146025354697, 0.03420364132406472 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.2881419084517764, 0.029967875022184884 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.40508443217578877, "logLossCi95": [ -0.983389834904237, 0.24072421933160873 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.7323797833867933, -0.11109074651819051 ], "brierDifference": -0.09897504459241499, "brierCi95": [ -0.27135930535610825, 0.09494755508230193 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.21020583955021266, -0.00253818806541031 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.14879739943500145, "logLossCi95": [ -0.521269555569449, 0.2339492154714243 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.45842499574705303, 0.09733248719133823 ], "brierDifference": -0.02650450521472602, "brierCi95": [ -0.1246863099238398, 0.08735163994138925 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.13447927187130357, 0.06815528761666166 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.43897423003995867, "logLossCi95": [ -1.0577578707643216, 0.20386121915463262 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.8198276204770407, -0.01884395841025989 ], "brierDifference": -0.09808184636750533, "brierCi95": [ -0.31430829592386533, 0.12642151740927693 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.2550616551254403, 0.05040874997373395 ] }, { "model": "adv_selected", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.3065196174486103, "logLossCi95": [ -1.1055721823473172, 0.4387248493387275 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.7721702261266452, 0.09103260940825092 ], "brierDifference": -0.031110108486006274, "brierCi95": [ -0.2829652916385244, 0.22592394595248094 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.20579970297587646, 0.1134658720278783 ] } ], "seasons": [ { "season": 2014, "champion": "SAS", "cutoffDate": "2013-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.648986555112183 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.247590203809846, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2881286868740986 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.470489427655722, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.369342209594779, "record": 1.3482109407740748 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2723880436706247, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15017555803804683, "record": 0.30071545869034116, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.006692559519246729, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.11903167899225026, "prior_net_rating": 0.344817447393362, "retained_minutes_share": 0.15655559444597292, "rotation_box_production": 0.24399708457771108, "star_box_production": 0.4645016908443064, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10112114806379739, "efg_pct": 0.23178177551227302, "opp_efg_pct": -0.16361724246502568, "turnover_rate": 0.1349718552924143, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.11755967563035179, "oreb_pct": 0.22497251394577011, "dreb_pct": -0.08319413605816464, "ft_rate": 0.0727035493580185, "opp_ft_rate": -0.10260283574244286, "pace": -0.00946705413414137, "three_attempt_rate": -0.01022303690411576, "three_pct": 0.19616575428439348, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.034750966141284485, "opp_three_pct": -0.023773164151914248 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3705902714856015, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.5060896196329732, "record": 1.3746642681596268, "adjusted_off_rating": -1.0062435943468977, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.9044115866786051 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.3268055723005636, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16904959971486758, "record": 0.3096649763577819, "prior_net_rating": 0.33971896646213606, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1534834805042438, "rotation_box_production": 0.2433540691415586, "star_box_production": 0.46272785191434906, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10120755506269377, "efg_pct": 0.22262131223353948, "opp_efg_pct": -0.19287513181834126, "turnover_rate": 0.14861224822177033, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14271180393017846, "oreb_pct": 0.2226502546828581, "dreb_pct": -0.07107167771039913, "ft_rate": 0.07447263011930162, "opp_ft_rate": -0.11005442797501551, "pace": -0.006426554928476527, "three_attempt_rate": -0.01134793378200317, "three_pct": 0.19216608731658194, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.04128839730556291, "opp_three_pct": -0.035590512253529084 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.368533493490113, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.35528612250126657, "record": 0.46639075200903296, "prior_net_rating": 0.43057844195163647, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1559546465122635 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6635629375655476, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14500429144168603, "record": 0.32450676322802824, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.007189239224569181, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.09406396458362073, "rotation_box_production": 0.2839609470999645, "star_box_production": 0.49623088482205363, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11766471751446464, "efg_pct": 0.2096472157816669, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14215084008209458, "turnover_rate": 0.10300782215977601, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10187120414063196, "oreb_pct": 0.2138657877100068, "dreb_pct": -0.05540412684836023, "ft_rate": 0.07643009031704916, "opp_ft_rate": -0.13660725974842616, "pace": -0.009868200644350438, "three_attempt_rate": -0.004085654100986652, "three_pct": 0.19912236166990685, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.06451689428299326, "opp_three_pct": -0.013528515841597406 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3211824990782857, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2592654161027182, "record": 0.9532833653571227, "rotation_box_production": 0.3007818532189927, "star_box_production": 0.8129731467725817, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.3194837175837367 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0221712475953075, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.18027160840003267, "record": 0.3230540609034533, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.035236983977508955, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.11586729743415515, "prior_net_rating": 0.457224332199193, "retained_minutes_share": 0.15861119627089038, "efg_pct": 0.33533184936981897, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17057252630895653, "turnover_rate": 0.11303579415246828, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1077143936383368, "oreb_pct": 0.1685346300722504, "dreb_pct": -0.05782234154342392, "ft_rate": 0.11531763264733243, "opp_ft_rate": -0.09240266820154112, "pace": 0.01827942818937302, "three_attempt_rate": -0.03660965473409717, "three_pct": 0.22649990589809785, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.018016082053532254, "opp_three_pct": -0.03533639075418311 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.644826820882385, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.25652821891916205, "record": 0.39398367689083236, "efg_pct": 0.3812663118466943, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17724217157619715, "turnover_rate": 0.06743438464016595, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10415520297013729, "oreb_pct": 0.1454208898640316, "dreb_pct": -0.01664050137983937, "ft_rate": 0.1416463307715532, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1271022902194558 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.633449723145641, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.20798812417384321, "record": 0.3682855097132402, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.000926849354297805, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.18343582416070092, "prior_net_rating": 0.2985934755679153, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1497839685406332, "rotation_box_production": 0.23978871582195624, "star_box_production": 0.45404387384603434, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.12108403319440045, "pace": 0.04886172314231768, "three_attempt_rate": -0.009676756265322337, "three_pct": 0.2328147979131418, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.028640817772832162, "opp_three_pct": -0.048643237609293365 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3555023780166526, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.37258871110310676, "record": 1.0281820536900463, "pace": 0.14502733454733527, "three_attempt_rate": -0.0752142700684199, "three_pct": 0.4038590837466291, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.15890330058007948, "opp_three_pct": 0.0070189928309633285 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5235715546045348, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.17232256594091547, "record": 0.3125146325893194, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.01766069612159285, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.11947895003813529, "prior_net_rating": 0.34361687520449746, "retained_minutes_share": 0.15972648840547912, "rotation_box_production": 0.25041668436294057, "star_box_production": 0.46720233679117723, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10728894898597782, "efg_pct": 0.26590939787357654, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17164955940275103, "turnover_rate": 0.13256427977657492, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.12250714947159402, "oreb_pct": 0.22026075927061797, "dreb_pct": -0.08797295543236465, "ft_rate": 0.07363335156671844, "opp_ft_rate": -0.11289673294154316 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.31861377233778, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0221712475953075, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666665, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.112368860935973, "brier": 0.9058173738237316, "championProbability": 0.12095111044585344, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 3.3497856929671155, "brier": 1.0135682102245271, "championProbability": 0.035091873730399015, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.6551711983153274, "brier": 1.0007621646843476, "championProbability": 0.07028680465261024, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.0544301117671715, "brier": 1.05653875580857, "championProbability": 0.12816585498171068, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 3.408229878894703, "brier": 1.0316604873550765, "championProbability": 0.033099739097044445, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.3140624337309643, "brier": 1.121562244173274, "championProbability": 0.0988588272675873, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.499064582747797, "brier": 0.9685062203235608, "championProbability": 0.08216181827136897, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.2883306877487284, "brier": 1.1234496706888275, "championProbability": 0.10143564837257527, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.6434432631805165, "brier": 0.9987638281348111, "championProbability": 0.07111597647108296, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.1259846766337893, "brier": 0.8525616461916239, "championProbability": 0.11931542329495434, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.543063935244218, "brier": 0.9299919930026579, "championProbability": 0.07862512805800313, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.4707022315460312, "brier": 0.6976207286780708, "championProbability": 0.2297640809360002, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.97826079506309, "brier": 1.0169443729448295, "championProbability": 0.05088124987681121, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 3.351430286719678, "brier": 1.0137215684013527, "championProbability": 0.035034209284387156, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.6672013431285302, "brier": 0.7405283155638083, "championProbability": 0.18877464249146983, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.35935962331236, "brier": 1.0438632634058582, "championProbability": 0.09448070707024352, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.53402559790146, "brier": 0.9868013285881115, "championProbability": 0.07933898969043572, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.4707022315460312, "brier": 0.6976207286780708, "championProbability": 0.2297640809360002, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015780536033074832, "strength": 0.030855807165249573, "strength_record": 0.021162054435620945, "adv_record": 0.007444513825663815, "adv_strength": 0.028693595108024498, "adv_strength_record": 0.009262453849099619, "adv_full": 0.0061918311005158145, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008580715611798418, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006264643271450334, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01856093131989153, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013325745240714148, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013046219464844569, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008235726087297904, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018754797315123466, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.014499362177137059, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012609930582901534, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006412180233296924, "adv_selected": 0.013046219464844569 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005700037290160011, "strength": 0.009133987001615142, "strength_record": 0.005886539629508424, "adv_record": 0.0017941896278752911, "adv_strength": 0.00742547271809209, "adv_strength_record": 0.001964033859346691, "adv_full": 0.009493060994922028, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017148838158742212, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009691246744573213, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009771197966642884, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.015825794594214626, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005282532334676231, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00831990898829329, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010795697754602119, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010671591869383948, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004350900673742481, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008232116954790739, "adv_selected": 0.005282532334676231 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01019972787456676, "strength": 0.013689417149863683, "strength_record": 0.010302438559094141, "adv_record": 0.004045692893615724, "adv_strength": 0.011637368848849087, "adv_strength_record": 0.0043432307128663476, "adv_full": 0.002916958412781113, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004255163199768625, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0028948488356597924, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012501272273851404, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003751791642883557, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00040815793141695396, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012170806514283141, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015980688217710204, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002283362820817593, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006182438768675642, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002595961993552836, "adv_selected": 0.00040815793141695396 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Bobcats", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015780536033074832, "strength": 0.005106130768784865, "strength_record": 0.007332363394404444, "adv_record": 0.007444513825663815, "adv_strength": 0.0038928106475151405, "adv_strength_record": 0.005223763859982214, "adv_full": 0.0010146889149222015, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004832403879768154, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001030563610531965, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0059853551036703305, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0025449699259841884, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007450099190452177, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0029047004697086887, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012426120987648115, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001161669114872277, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003443577946479889, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0011372097985739287, "adv_selected": 0.0007450099190452177 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008565945730893589, "strength": 0.01551606018560662, "strength_record": 0.010072287795439209, "adv_record": 0.0031699728407796764, "adv_strength": 0.013373915317661883, "adv_strength_record": 0.003702695262546168, "adv_full": 0.012271210905272983, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003341443312585408, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011333233064988374, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01566004244473909, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014551413454800106, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0035030008284884866, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014357580715188153, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019050341983772402, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007182593252261928, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0034337085272937353, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014656176426400882, "adv_selected": 0.0035030008284884866 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01019972787456676, "strength": 0.005619410377212312, "strength_record": 0.0060967399998783315, "adv_record": 0.004045692893615724, "adv_strength": 0.004329682562634976, "adv_strength_record": 0.0032710891044510915, "adv_full": 0.004063110229576846, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0030516433110848165, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0038189427614989595, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007557541037638844, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008021880825567096, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002663631947902504, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00444906911582953, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008245166232409853, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0060385396837369975, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004187309878719266, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0035470477347018534, "adv_selected": 0.002663631947902504 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.042571811785762394, "strength_record": 0.0325519198750049, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.04102110489026051, "adv_strength_record": 0.016895402070469485, "adv_full": 0.01537557690303777, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01583364068816435, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016510431675843103, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.022951201537376648, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.027885988033069315, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012014842503831122, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02151720724489279, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03211907804419879, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.016837973772759727, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.030854887485850375, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013263906458430244, "adv_selected": 0.012014842503831122 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002523959915787062, "strength": 0.0037116999205582704, "strength_record": 0.0022083618480961535, "adv_record": 0.0005747698018642902, "adv_strength": 0.002731787192009416, "adv_strength_record": 0.000581338753944811, "adv_full": 0.005807576910430678, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004647259978044701, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005753618061976739, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008989746186420192, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006346220441544232, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006184925263852446, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009653524732136511, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005493539012675918, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007084560889172607, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002850297614417026, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003911281105362522, "adv_selected": 0.0006184925263852446 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008565945730893589, "strength": 0.013067713750149196, "strength_record": 0.009102990585000453, "adv_record": 0.0031699728407796764, "adv_strength": 0.011051985031581274, "adv_strength_record": 0.0035056751733827008, "adv_full": 0.00476748058313824, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0030870258772546745, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005249729585448485, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00837231240618124, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009405065604066164, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0016128045181952886, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006451304468763506, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01623951889725808, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003611624898954379, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0036173152402669464, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005003947024568507, "adv_selected": 0.0016128045181952886 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.14192742143203452, "strength_record": 0.06617564757568649, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.1562078369126151, "adv_strength_record": 0.024789628687064375, "adv_full": 0.061833745031737324, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.030005920176901076, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05464018514830327, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0453920931413139, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.07234052331370824, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.018566616063324416, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0946547560203806, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07912628974395727, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.061523406666179045, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05941163904322391, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04779520563470502, "adv_selected": 0.018566616063324416 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.02502549992164821, "strength_record": 0.02380256164870608, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.022739782366432603, "adv_strength_record": 0.014266020782211581, "adv_full": 0.03927696693903533, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012705802824972079, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04039030726602002, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.035596383589248874, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04138905836313284, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009206373784367384, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06115766610698773, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07814602058446646, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018205380931814726, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.011361212353863314, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04645986346614015, "adv_selected": 0.009206373784367384 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.33485278419601744, "strength": 0.1940911641521653, "strength_record": 0.3378576996207764, "adv_record": 0.5317902102239146, "adv_strength": 0.2211335969512089, "adv_strength_record": 0.5454658824206718, "adv_full": 0.14544668357900467, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.5511066225353877, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12479683515678514, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.19014803004292052, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1528258045020163, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.13142945627332986, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.2715923355474127, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.22471515893894883, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.11983130327527278, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.4580980583976922, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.12423228223536252, "adv_selected": 0.13142945627332986 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.08341984769952959, "strength_record": 0.048385071021877155, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.08658005651700533, "adv_strength_record": 0.020930809242657878, "adv_full": 0.06152693146049974, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021393777408871818, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06829771848966253, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0649887972706643, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.061900687129128405, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.06506586540906198, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.045655384440609084, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04064094929197548, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06356312819272526, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025403364517211275, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06514777881823478, "adv_selected": 0.06506586540906198 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01019972787456676, "strength": 0.004457606832490641, "strength_record": 0.005319001198076547, "adv_record": 0.004045692893615724, "adv_strength": 0.00334779251000385, "adv_strength_record": 0.0030385444759802455, "adv_full": 0.0017696334650157781, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002552273116245989, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016807419373780805, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010315812797650998, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002863893535528714, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011908469183805322, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004721977912819849, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0056450871525941335, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00486639027568884, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007363051627304437, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0013144043059869575, "adv_selected": 0.0011908469183805322 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015780536033074832, "strength": 0.012774991321758604, "strength_record": 0.012586531934381504, "adv_record": 0.007444513825663815, "adv_strength": 0.010777417830862317, "adv_strength_record": 0.006995025250982966, "adv_full": 0.010815867452992279, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006834465358442655, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011453592375289019, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.026810941490679908, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01047551384110908, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004082285879001404, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021764698745020742, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01906918843559832, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010250644785417526, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008299763199881747, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0104100223018435, "adv_selected": 0.004082285879001404 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.048512324756426424, "strength_record": 0.035156222876983605, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.04742444681681772, "adv_strength_record": 0.017612902119377105, "adv_full": 0.24187022783886, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015825771089504424, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.27188186685013976, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0826864369923651, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1642962216652217, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.18740789930439608, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.12644781967687496, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06322627954763965, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1873705005334548, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02646341684065028, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.21760262320377718, "adv_selected": 0.18740789930439608 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008565945730893589, "strength": 0.009795157396712488, "strength_record": 0.007681084096139018, "adv_record": 0.0031699728407796764, "adv_strength": 0.008024665703370947, "adv_strength_record": 0.003198252105763322, "adv_full": 0.0047783382609249, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0028050215509063435, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005081246092661985, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006466160351766085, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010927255404078913, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002332709125063131, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007652583458718167, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012360157234505788, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005082892654182016, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007774983415912068, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0031147066744078946, "adv_selected": 0.002332709125063131 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04368836637631581, "strength": 0.04790014981903915, "strength_record": 0.048116573311572326, "adv_record": 0.03088903493781195, "adv_strength": 0.04676037510978997, "adv_strength_record": 0.034102755222576366, "adv_full": 0.023864438135145896, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03346460422135715, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023137894531636886, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03184944414640235, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04397304225076823, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.042956352940835475, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018643918464378333, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03556110462606695, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03180535815876003, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03028141080298873, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.026381936661308232, "adv_selected": 0.042956352940835475 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015780536033074832, "strength": 0.026974641228159874, "strength_record": 0.019550563617504617, "adv_record": 0.007444513825663815, "adv_strength": 0.02471476046288136, "adv_strength_record": 0.008874377756719573, "adv_full": 0.010481103995112163, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0076303973434873685, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010312899256752368, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014240477145811815, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022975554078935017, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013580633681078343, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009935714466166855, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013189459803190976, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.020927520477226666, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.023843798547390323, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00654250108325785, "adv_selected": 0.013580633681078343 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008565945730893589, "strength": 0.014320971348744665, "strength_record": 0.00960767898270901, "adv_record": 0.0031699728407796764, "adv_strength": 0.012235041964991655, "adv_strength_record": 0.003609400326764957, "adv_full": 0.011488182847487838, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032526455635778647, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011567025782263535, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.021050574319921325, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009879281357740717, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002490391924520088, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01854491769482741, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01421148086832502, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010057627158385752, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0041156173050383715, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010699328290951661, "adv_selected": 0.002490391924520088 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09866452946956492, "strength": 0.038053489744404596, "strength_record": 0.06588203369815074, "adv_record": 0.09642257808385213, "adv_strength": 0.03621583298415088, "adv_strength_record": 0.08038387440987196, "adv_full": 0.18741527150056864, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08372124606407583, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.18708712668095145, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.1438371552802542, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.11372118732906336, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.21044973953910592, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08775395042481143, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0558678656921583, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1468003359966546, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03127550744523575, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.25653171045248485, "adv_selected": 0.21044973953910592 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01019972787456676, "strength": 0.047938480897741706, "strength_record": 0.021559773106995642, "adv_record": 0.004045692893615724, "adv_strength": 0.04680192830668799, "adv_strength_record": 0.00647312066877243, "adv_full": 0.014911918718351612, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005938168712002382, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013315957949503302, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012049424146331117, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03145229569077912, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.007089432593819591, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01810747053769278, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.030160376627144242, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.016601224683237076, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01964540296898981, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011341495566475158, "adv_selected": 0.007089432593819591 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.008763432341321488, "strength_record": 0.012826782339288297, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.0070917212519367254, "adv_strength_record": 0.010214301866554074, "adv_full": 0.006023816198613992, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008200069279247999, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0062038141666545385, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010654334482130684, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013200092502537637, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004682058069533459, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011249875385365898, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02971622935614784, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005106733291527717, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010807459132160229, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006512370523601602, "adv_selected": 0.004682058069533459 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04368836637631581, "strength": 0.04050064673813579, "strength_record": 0.04358694096880725, "adv_record": 0.03088903493781195, "adv_strength": 0.038811027403933586, "adv_strength_record": 0.0323285811060219, "adv_full": 0.003780922242599277, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03148406220519412, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0037196210960126603, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01461548543371059, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010302114104665121, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002122056462207464, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014973417245076268, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04938706093927636, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0040376577823228385, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.041040796532332946, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0033140828714353487, "adv_selected": 0.002122056462207464 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04368836637631581, "strength": 0.0336516392416251, "strength_record": 0.03907971866333409, "adv_record": 0.03088903493781195, "adv_strength": 0.031594703572820806, "adv_strength_record": 0.030476854655112764, "adv_full": 0.015548805285187015, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.027430539019628056, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0170457059579961, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02612058281784565, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03327526003453243, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.022321921010088355, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021211084167941128, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03578276472870148, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01950176989425416, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05334440696884339, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011572400451064987, "adv_selected": 0.022321921010088355 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002058892362155329, "strength": 0.0025086726488595403, "strength_record": 0.0015667137149980737, "adv_record": 0.0004324145936404695, "adv_strength": 0.001768193699055605, "adv_strength_record": 0.00040664125204683746, "adv_full": 0.001551928591591279, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003758796307176753, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016238659593256141, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0031522205885498355, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00334482266980216, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0012396641184192407, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0011997978959083036, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0030462014636898132, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0022726273907616094, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00048625030770120764, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001604214151677003, "adv_selected": 0.0012396641184192407 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.12095111044585344, "strength": 0.035091873730399015, "strength_record": 0.07028680465261024, "adv_record": 0.12816585498171068, "adv_strength": 0.033099739097044445, "adv_strength_record": 0.0988588272675873, "adv_full": 0.08216181827136897, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10143564837257527, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07111597647108296, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.11931542329495434, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.07862512805800313, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.2297640809360002, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.05088124987681121, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.035034209284387156, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.18877464249146983, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09448070707024352, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.07933898969043572, "adv_selected": 0.2297640809360002 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01019972787456676, "strength": 0.03124444965218084, "strength_record": 0.016753446823389067, "adv_record": 0.004045692893615724, "adv_strength": 0.02909519376573165, "adv_strength_record": 0.005648341108974256, "adv_full": 0.005743323557536355, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005322396816173284, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005929175090799618, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.017130379211259258, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008653514582602313, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0017007302417680564, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01228295861747655, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019296947532339317, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005374550310394618, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006380960457819106, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005183066254873317, "adv_selected": 0.0017007302417680564 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0007436859696092522, "strength": 0.0009847526402162103, "strength_record": 0.000514641411920742, "adv_record": 0.00010421550648170905, "adv_strength": 0.0006259844235726477, "adv_strength_record": 9.433143203564743e-05, "adv_full": 0.0012235957731637488, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 8.368016525890792e-05, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012931342143059138, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002267235536414326, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0015163292568871132, "adv_add_player_availability": 8.883580377921628e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0018897520179630464, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0024126318009694636, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000693368393949801, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00014352637557625694, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0012642179402467587, "adv_selected": 8.883580377921628e-05 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008565945730893589, "strength": 0.012790748351604151, "strength_record": 0.00898881261404607, "adv_record": 0.0031699728407796764, "adv_strength": 0.010792180032456728, "adv_strength_record": 0.0034818451961635805, "adv_full": 0.006584985900605818, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032693628513691475, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006878051914504309, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010963007643392683, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010403550566916003, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023373579471341666, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011618842960363326, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01429958790251837, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007981658177223723, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008448299971594166, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004876971692051071, "adv_selected": 0.0023373579471341666 } } ] }, { "season": 2015, "champion": "GSW", "cutoffDate": "2014-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.6279866755018688 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.215396855136067, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2243135128488147 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.626779502862219, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14837973696189743, "record": 1.5077590978776065 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.279333775347348, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.12651817160674697, "record": 0.356303975614969, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.0722767097647133, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1684780752481209, "prior_net_rating": 0.3409464314702326, "retained_minutes_share": 0.16630990242161708, "rotation_box_production": 0.2563334773708597, "star_box_production": 0.48484088913925627, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10704823936027816, "efg_pct": 0.2380149985178518, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14474766763708552, "turnover_rate": 0.06978664905361985, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10365074274881417, "oreb_pct": 0.1905287438959953, "dreb_pct": 0.013490650599971319, "ft_rate": -0.01129829360402344, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1615102900135491, "pace": 0.015636207808169853, "three_attempt_rate": -0.09107398550775346, "three_pct": 0.19410282986339766, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.06794669109725181, "opp_three_pct": 0.03600232581285307 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3920026566959676, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.293218698613253, "record": 1.5212342453576047, "adjusted_off_rating": -1.039379100644544, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.8848834254363157 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.320393091541925, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14554803397755717, "record": 0.37008600622829146, "prior_net_rating": 0.33332048140397447, "retained_minutes_share": 0.16002006662317295, "rotation_box_production": 0.2506229404722885, "star_box_production": 0.47642833325168, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10820878977077002, "efg_pct": 0.2092435536605291, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1985790234012835, "turnover_rate": 0.09953265530807061, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14336290133347637, "oreb_pct": 0.18329904371322167, "dreb_pct": 0.043676847882648404, "ft_rate": -0.017492495531615897, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17874680644322327, "pace": 0.02358319473534168, "three_attempt_rate": -0.099031718673516, "three_pct": 0.181262033901642, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.08819646330685604, "opp_three_pct": 0.01982572222417541 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.414351788438514, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3225215157063975, "record": 0.5114631900174764, "prior_net_rating": 0.4581870216130144, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1984259913867329 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.573966560743588, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.12253360573639965, "record": 0.3870687624962581, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07108542336996508, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1419118398284642, "rotation_box_production": 0.3028986940173555, "star_box_production": 0.5287821289992846, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1119460094290685, "efg_pct": 0.21743348027653137, "opp_efg_pct": -0.12059354501181584, "turnover_rate": 0.0434775359788682, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09973901219870793, "oreb_pct": 0.17393877811459732, "dreb_pct": 0.03666813034119825, "ft_rate": -0.0021427950688276136, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1949634164046887, "pace": 0.011743735520868496, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08062737937416384, "three_pct": 0.1895063090445123, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.09091492383310434, "opp_three_pct": 0.05064304185375014 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3581627384392747, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.10160550527167653, "record": 1.1210824393030978, "rotation_box_production": 0.330061031123968, "star_box_production": 0.8321212577020635, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.3543674277678679 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9302597449204282, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15292005105924564, "record": 0.3781480728715233, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.021719313737693736, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.148207735764068, "prior_net_rating": 0.4781072164160093, "retained_minutes_share": 0.18613790491574708, "efg_pct": 0.3426348419348724, "opp_efg_pct": -0.13859850935973958, "turnover_rate": 0.028718237963959174, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10424410203843483, "oreb_pct": 0.12103902867136535, "dreb_pct": 0.03218508504751517, "ft_rate": 0.03378306230572781, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1494702163198578, "pace": 0.052023243438422344, "three_attempt_rate": -0.1277390247708054, "three_pct": 0.21702862160716488, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.03040223383259108, "opp_three_pct": 0.033605081692141874 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.7003991499125024, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.22130009322788208, "record": 0.4568835404025502, "efg_pct": 0.36831971596650365, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1512858173082068, "turnover_rate": 0.004975117226626466, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.12198048657272442, "oreb_pct": 0.09042722011294148, "dreb_pct": 0.08458153217080416, "ft_rate": 0.05649049867305286, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18005929424059633 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.75311315040798, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.185064820639593, "record": 0.4147798876143745, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.05951181841557594, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.226034503536644, "prior_net_rating": 0.3162068172824201, "retained_minutes_share": 0.16992370203603796, "rotation_box_production": 0.256264208895217, "star_box_production": 0.47573627296862175, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1252782822868235, "pace": 0.04601845590292872, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07285271942417516, "three_pct": 0.23327184050802882, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.057997326853642166, "opp_three_pct": 0.018710206883052916 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.240785538868632, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.27492465070270944, "record": 1.1685040054094282, "pace": 0.19494098093886114, "three_attempt_rate": -0.19457440187187047, "three_pct": 0.3738096797632931, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.15311719079391445, "opp_three_pct": 0.17125827936322385 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4962028993891723, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14239743357207277, "record": 0.3670928418302764, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.056105730539052726, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17079763538952117, "prior_net_rating": 0.33155487279190643, "retained_minutes_share": 0.176651574214239, "rotation_box_production": 0.2618053829655685, "star_box_production": 0.4849965693699113, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.12225465095395532, "efg_pct": 0.27083124160203675, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14660455171919204, "turnover_rate": 0.06464021102579984, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10431724838749779, "oreb_pct": 0.1844850069413702, "dreb_pct": 0.01222863111363322, "ft_rate": -0.02273798595458796, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1676158769160543 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.35451574326506, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9302597449204282, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.2751279755589344, "brier": 0.8659575189633186, "championProbability": 0.10278375378522743, "topPick": "HOU / MEM / TOR", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.8521443604491827, "brier": 0.7728933001583668, "championProbability": 0.15690035440517375, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.9394918798786804, "brier": 0.8011569750123643, "championProbability": 0.14377698720041868, "topPick": "HOU", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.093841822058573, "brier": 0.8488252739721999, "championProbability": 0.12321286346903348, "topPick": "HOU / MEM / TOR", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.7841832526291654, "brier": 0.7591720186162432, "championProbability": 0.16793416479055015, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.0140144876916533, "brier": 0.8323078034766481, "championProbability": 0.13345185702838208, "topPick": "HOU", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.2178570133168005, "brier": 0.5463408253222036, "championProbability": 0.29586351963103596, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.7919875354467365, "brier": 0.7721123207237379, "championProbability": 0.16662865996440693, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.3407973758549496, "brier": 0.5954115203113833, "championProbability": 0.261636962386175, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.990647640223097, "brier": 0.7960203755505008, "championProbability": 0.13660692465112248, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.6167510351379792, "brier": 0.6944137333517645, "championProbability": 0.19854271062210344, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.9989966122203766, "brier": 0.8354840826412174, "championProbability": 0.13547114515566017, "topPick": "SAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.2270192692261903, "brier": 0.546490862518586, "championProbability": 0.2931651229273135, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.823941244765121, "brier": 0.759877357369553, "championProbability": 0.16138842454583055, "topPick": "HOU", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.3868142173231015, "brier": 0.6046123452819436, "championProbability": 0.24987006972465323, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.6387086633850234, "brier": 0.7097292661983473, "championProbability": 0.19423069762745207, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.2492218014306815, "brier": 0.5631162983868845, "championProbability": 0.2867278412583692, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.9989966122203766, "brier": 0.8354840826412174, "championProbability": 0.13547114515566017, "topPick": "SAC", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01075894572403875, "strength": 0.021272527781759185, "strength_record": 0.012473866906842995, "adv_record": 0.00578728070235026, "adv_strength": 0.019680824820171132, "adv_strength_record": 0.006058798470289138, "adv_full": 0.013674667443408312, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005832805269467196, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014121896638201036, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019157348652186837, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014261357804575941, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0049687166174580775, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018904550262622544, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017545076718302077, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.020452302828774443, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012426397630655395, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011022199054112924, "adv_selected": 0.0049687166174580775 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.043146132751603686, "strength": 0.036292666616378276, "strength_record": 0.038891267146545075, "adv_record": 0.03800292381612252, "adv_strength": 0.034911084155857405, "adv_strength_record": 0.037113808329660825, "adv_full": 0.021472759572947992, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.027297486746017518, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.025572529723743985, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03075587247044975, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02852506377144546, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010597979917695455, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04230019666722107, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05655724237203163, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.019427685488868817, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07477885363969647, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0161055863348803, "adv_selected": 0.010597979917695455 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018111702509998863, "strength": 0.02672941747896397, "strength_record": 0.019391978148300987, "adv_record": 0.011721359100926844, "adv_strength": 0.025144697080131753, "adv_strength_record": 0.011999135378252642, "adv_full": 0.005854528271615338, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009719785999274075, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00717705271206065, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0136273849409525, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010013901412949574, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0029647673665662566, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010442015287370938, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.029996043942277343, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004270479356055765, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015274791144231038, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006991677071536044, "adv_selected": 0.0029647673665662566 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012485194289665786, "strength": 0.009361408651536078, "strength_record": 0.0088621972375325, "adv_record": 0.0070802232914049645, "adv_strength": 0.008157680152075361, "adv_strength_record": 0.006563533252940334, "adv_full": 0.009784235326692786, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00951264880894006, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009937390245324338, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009982002130221091, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.018114755500251982, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011192821331445911, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006207399937312118, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013978012325937837, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011924114027624621, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005500327328069118, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010300287977175719, "adv_selected": 0.011192821331445911 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05529058556460079, "strength": 0.03867365061872587, "strength_record": 0.04685277859297927, "adv_record": 0.053182778420827914, "adv_strength": 0.0373742326729656, "adv_strength_record": 0.051085681774394834, "adv_full": 0.04009943074168451, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.038217802642820445, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04876679190316837, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03993352864567444, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04973656063234739, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.029122332321365806, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.05179391985499065, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.060229727765046634, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.035670036840183016, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08197044670314385, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02934185639025147, "adv_selected": 0.029122332321365806 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01075894572403875, "strength": 0.01536555741462783, "strength_record": 0.01050509487257258, "adv_record": 0.00578728070235026, "adv_strength": 0.013882552464365717, "adv_strength_record": 0.005807866375871147, "adv_full": 0.023318092605570277, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006373931971027023, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.024569342700635675, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00790849379103391, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06622654955568794, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.06998686432074076, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003597881863690321, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010325687003263518, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.032315830901372196, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006034894046017851, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02319685744163692, "adv_selected": 0.06998686432074076 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026273821632252718, "strength": 0.0357352312944788, "strength_record": 0.028423750268991316, "adv_record": 0.019404791843170458, "adv_strength": 0.03433608560418191, "adv_strength_record": 0.01987517320719284, "adv_full": 0.02258469748954337, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013385980707354026, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02765548194725335, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02580540672577285, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.034285527887561326, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03687776887960531, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019117597105743143, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03797158386147377, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.019172878398987857, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0167089898827449, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02723469670950849, "adv_selected": 0.03687776887960531 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003191494333784934, "strength": 0.003580424842253957, "strength_record": 0.0023036331311639215, "adv_record": 0.0011150642498249403, "adv_strength": 0.002908825278144424, "adv_strength_record": 0.0010456760306593582, "adv_full": 0.0019162591300589474, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012225994095764932, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002133892554837095, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005028706229804271, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002592591865468815, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011393804932749968, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0018966319895455282, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00312684980205424, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003662610359459089, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0014760290922566195, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002058309342317689, "adv_selected": 0.0011393804932749968 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007602854459731539, "strength": 0.005836486886501738, "strength_record": 0.005088217163742555, "adv_record": 0.0036152549692661687, "adv_strength": 0.004913738526690525, "adv_strength_record": 0.0033121175331097107, "adv_full": 0.004871979057436099, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004288833359615408, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005096569201858965, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006938319561248626, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00808531571980538, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0034735870828908636, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003140269856402382, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0067530600188878374, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00604426038210368, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0025697705196240784, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004929884937837566, "adv_selected": 0.0034735870828908636 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.10278375378522743, "strength": 0.15690035440517375, "strength_record": 0.14377698720041868, "adv_record": 0.12321286346903348, "adv_strength": 0.16793416479055015, "adv_strength_record": 0.13345185702838208, "adv_full": 0.29586351963103596, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.16662865996440693, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.261636962386175, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.13660692465112248, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.19854271062210344, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.13547114515566017, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.2931651229273135, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.16138842454583055, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.24987006972465323, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.19423069762745207, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.2867278412583692, "adv_selected": 0.13547114515566017 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11635341424118241, "strength": 0.15406236856963404, "strength_record": 0.15369451991083136, "adv_record": 0.14575822010450157, "adv_strength": 0.16467722688087894, "adv_strength_record": 0.15555408549600508, "adv_full": 0.16569401445480308, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15203628580356815, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15117702053473708, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10680521505672871, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.15274791000685062, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.07638440540733019, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.16032091013287444, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.1778717351573951, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.10596873720654562, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09929248673733264, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1802031167682888, "adv_selected": 0.07638440540733019 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002819287856312807, "strength": 0.008199841976403256, "strength_record": 0.0033059464543049614, "adv_record": 0.0009425901268167134, "adv_strength": 0.007076764514416831, "adv_strength_record": 0.0009967923590097573, "adv_full": 0.0024843300613863048, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013311161756612597, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002621073832057996, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010050688249684069, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001985215559989539, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00012603314891469398, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007789309855520237, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007699710726870872, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0020183137520522884, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010661492625780374, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0025767108699132116, "adv_selected": 0.00012603314891469398 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.043146132751603686, "strength": 0.013494470469970486, "strength_record": 0.023065300981584075, "adv_record": 0.03800292381612252, "adv_strength": 0.012077137821722516, "adv_strength_record": 0.03263360574441525, "adv_full": 0.036831840795977976, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.029816300557383144, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0410580194593618, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05929837550252144, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03283894526988296, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.11020014419981361, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02144539825430847, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018160376722664236, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0862188566769083, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.029317503279172742, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.039753587260911924, "adv_selected": 0.11020014419981361 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003191494333784934, "strength": 0.0028917907723153983, "strength_record": 0.002057904916922242, "adv_record": 0.0011150642498249403, "adv_strength": 0.0023130455591156658, "adv_strength_record": 0.0010170311928012913, "adv_full": 0.00125848936147625, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008487928264789219, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016518920243665319, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002409889204404844, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00287786438341269, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001756948097960918, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001097521069387082, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0027904386423492325, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0021748885123843787, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002406557385677853, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001040954996295562, "adv_selected": 0.001756948097960918 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11635341424118241, "strength": 0.059328893716346594, "strength_record": 0.09285587402315991, "adv_record": 0.14575822010450157, "adv_strength": 0.0591531530557108, "adv_strength_record": 0.13740157851064558, "adv_full": 0.049914003227525636, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.16497993195347085, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.045010431382947906, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.08885943326367635, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04589350260659225, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03188502495547541, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07767980790134404, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05595555154972421, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06310852614891661, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.14744075045927132, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.039939803526329413, "adv_selected": 0.03188502495547541 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05529058556460079, "strength": 0.043309533056957956, "strength_record": 0.0497393110490764, "adv_record": 0.053182778420827914, "adv_strength": 0.042201372230371785, "adv_strength_record": 0.05184330849038487, "adv_full": 0.014231442085024764, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04172777628910035, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016690155132053634, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05102537870049037, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013981222220022124, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015452290210441842, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0348640144816753, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.046741259545472924, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018181301280269277, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.039017797590390674, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014839318154270219, "adv_selected": 0.015452290210441842 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012485194289665786, "strength": 0.014214724655916177, "strength_record": 0.011049234686864405, "adv_record": 0.0070802232914049645, "adv_strength": 0.012770080248085316, "adv_strength_record": 0.006929874252795862, "adv_full": 0.0037033560528665402, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00949872028993125, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0035937744285181, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00636327049574704, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006846109849036981, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0015229846514550904, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005273160097574534, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012829769572598893, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00387544488711616, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008079778682248072, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003400575963600658, "adv_selected": 0.0015229846514550904 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007602854459731539, "strength": 0.017063663230767603, "strength_record": 0.00896613536363777, "adv_record": 0.0036152549692661687, "adv_strength": 0.015535077998192948, "adv_strength_record": 0.0038079470933517694, "adv_full": 0.010371723185317204, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00401028378379545, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011438535215385034, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01462969294004205, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012716494811576525, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0016457801788084033, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01493597042293418, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012971609262435724, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010008543782635196, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010980306823459081, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007158333576706485, "adv_selected": 0.0016457801788084033 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030489397030581924, "strength": 0.021454755309258864, "strength_record": 0.023793654456448723, "adv_record": 0.023740037202115545, "adv_strength": 0.01986176947365439, "adv_strength_record": 0.022418379455137024, "adv_full": 0.03606032409933661, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023806441796154088, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.039236463445816286, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.023675215212796797, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05524393292316216, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.10960954885333672, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008762868318173942, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01668191645025749, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04822589107710998, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01243408823476337, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04384656477226858, "adv_selected": 0.10960954885333672 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005932904570660204, "strength": 0.004507798816954289, "strength_record": 0.0038107671308136096, "adv_record": 0.002583359938168905, "adv_strength": 0.0037242858508131464, "adv_strength_record": 0.0023460781103123423, "adv_full": 0.004632766907420173, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0027342010100307092, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00507197899776353, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0064813956325733574, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006307131826388325, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014884951958613931, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005457913881625974, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005067366930946454, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005716989980461649, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006933720078712712, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0026733455376380558, "adv_selected": 0.0014884951958613931 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005932904570660204, "strength": 0.006622138919671864, "strength_record": 0.004668939476180548, "adv_record": 0.002583359938168905, "adv_strength": 0.005626766759028202, "adv_strength_record": 0.0024663936959275702, "adv_full": 0.005549536004621075, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032808549440796345, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005654438417241756, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018428988024829503, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0035277386651905458, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00038373522701090835, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014026318420025156, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010526285757242217, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0043870928759348945, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0017003605126104469, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006104608902548126, "adv_selected": 0.00038373522701090835 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005932904570660204, "strength": 0.006544963052811528, "strength_record": 0.004640126107261501, "adv_record": 0.002583359938168905, "adv_strength": 0.005556438615093436, "adv_strength_record": 0.002462636948750619, "adv_full": 0.004081888224167656, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003378522417484352, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004322011437486408, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003144316141131591, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010011248293593311, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0022431249069789715, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003755853080698156, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008208890606236762, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004776571830445111, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006555398069573861, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0027108621964673416, "adv_selected": 0.0022431249069789715 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00133971209583578, "strength": 0.0015558381987574423, "strength_record": 0.0008693217580206716, "adv_record": 0.00034392270858009166, "adv_strength": 0.0011894555479825106, "adv_strength_record": 0.00031565718679098036, "adv_full": 0.00024306781478953784, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00043272700043134815, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00024103074801372872, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0008352201314445779, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000666485693952745, "adv_add_player_availability": 5.157741134205561e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006688803314424419, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002768280823674449, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0003098795236407775, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0006500772013709115, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00023366115972870308, "adv_selected": 5.157741134205561e-05 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026273821632252718, "strength": 0.013541186537893933, "strength_record": 0.017026713508389777, "adv_record": 0.019404791843170458, "adv_strength": 0.012122002185138538, "adv_strength_record": 0.017519017528710556, "adv_full": 0.009119864373512572, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018964959179256172, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010026571082353232, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.034128204743838, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.007950831549543584, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005092771210432427, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018173471172069643, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018101989773586756, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.015549335516152353, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.018447238767309256, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009320476494179176, "adv_selected": 0.005092771210432427 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026273821632252718, "strength": 0.06495315630835792, "strength_record": 0.03896888386535491, "adv_record": 0.019404791843170458, "adv_strength": 0.06518994660942906, "adv_strength_record": 0.021481025628570637, "adv_full": 0.10327227920387826, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0178451287348329, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.11383032279615374, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0586854567181993, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.08700385455749111, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04933424312048933, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06045758046476289, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04449646801592973, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.08822977438430891, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.031159041913728903, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.09442776333166158, "adv_selected": 0.04933424312048933 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05529058556460079, "strength": 0.030198703407030996, "strength_record": 0.04111556291032349, "adv_record": 0.053182778420827914, "adv_strength": 0.028662266601560817, "adv_strength_record": 0.049468658574858416, "adv_full": 0.03179610441971154, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05108396028227007, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.036753127490434134, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02436569966551547, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05824787280135579, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.21006834736154317, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01059604576419942, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0326142126796916, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03984031580967574, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.020460398039022665, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04302527053161462, "adv_selected": 0.21006834736154317 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01075894572403875, "strength": 0.010118275805875205, "strength_record": 0.008425305594701464, "adv_record": 0.00578728070235026, "adv_strength": 0.008867364525611226, "adv_strength_record": 0.005500765832689298, "adv_full": 0.03993452967608571, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006720321615480263, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04054521768163133, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04051821266335485, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022835746850317442, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.007596874159945568, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.029203091282545144, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015327560001899452, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.035160654176139824, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004085384525931256, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04464200303745526, "adv_selected": 0.007596874159945568 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11635341424118241, "strength": 0.14002808055321955, "strength_record": 0.14613464983214616, "adv_record": 0.14575822010450157, "adv_strength": 0.1486369471784522, "adv_strength_record": 0.1536340425922197, "adv_full": 0.018487090025700675, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12066300663192171, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020026071386340112, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10576420259558321, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.018343252917968584, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.05020471162648563, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.038770109457539836, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.057590154557509515, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.034862498243839773, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09203404511499333, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.023835406621531073, "adv_selected": 0.05020471162648563 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012485194289665786, "strength": 0.008019733755683345, "strength_record": 0.008167043718900206, "adv_record": 0.0070802232914049645, "adv_strength": 0.006910122425317019, "adv_strength_record": 0.0064328273658701566, "adv_full": 0.0042332105724192095, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006611081694966776, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005644532983365443, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006782325623702636, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008957814882732099, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0036984521034954592, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00473019407100329, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01993586223874601, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0030475686437607306, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0044960584907746135, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0050736228647493475, "adv_selected": 0.0036984521034954592 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05529058556460079, "strength": 0.03014235689577415, "strength_record": 0.04107503358598791, "adv_record": 0.053182778420827914, "adv_strength": 0.028604890374290915, "adv_strength_record": 0.04945664656000054, "adv_full": 0.018659970183985596, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05774905213520357, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018739421510713682, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04200483163526904, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.020632489558743545, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015459144486174645, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.031425995788083486, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.035788852629662936, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.025528547383619562, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05247166121718706, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.017284816916215553, "adv_selected": 0.015459144486174645 } } ] }, { "season": 2016, "champion": "CLE", "cutoffDate": "2015-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.6885852208902874 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1980318504107106, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3173219813609152 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.5064086099717824, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.29456783844611756, "record": 1.44551330703661 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.241431019967963, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14846648342761914, "record": 0.36154793791560974, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07970012774702709, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.196497181221628, "prior_net_rating": 0.3695280461412529, "retained_minutes_share": 0.18776266759991, "rotation_box_production": 0.2381099820430575, "star_box_production": 0.49465586843313103, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10752376877255052, "efg_pct": 0.2680758503065006, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15005689395570435, "turnover_rate": 0.12667681614424992, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13462414336732906, "oreb_pct": 0.13862149458765444, "dreb_pct": 0.0006429741877902001, "ft_rate": -0.04582161581359587, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14459042651500373, "pace": 0.09445657653911993, "three_attempt_rate": -0.09949077597025396, "three_pct": 0.2124429566645661, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.023022715561449004, "opp_three_pct": 0.026641025922856585 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.224267564784658, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.6165331874585471, "record": 1.4615803989885028, "adjusted_off_rating": -1.2551179862340052, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.9785594045233906 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2449065835283264, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.17350944407768856, "record": 0.3787492161461113, "prior_net_rating": 0.3626247921311207, "retained_minutes_share": 0.18104241854950612, "rotation_box_production": 0.2292927412990984, "star_box_production": 0.4838853165826302, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10558672011055543, "efg_pct": 0.2365906712948863, "opp_efg_pct": -0.21415739712449083, "turnover_rate": 0.16646002301078822, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.18297578459843328, "oreb_pct": 0.12794566352244538, "dreb_pct": 0.034814911984492006, "ft_rate": -0.05408465151245619, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16408830829792692, "pace": 0.10896399546183677, "three_attempt_rate": -0.10657030398888434, "three_pct": 0.19894083592653927, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.043839600181569925, "opp_three_pct": 0.00534869313596206 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2609868723551476, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.37367563199143694, "record": 0.524957006430439, "prior_net_rating": 0.47447966516680484, "retained_minutes_share": 0.21432214481791592 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.490635286383518, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14684403961220846, "record": 0.3951570657133745, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.08089246320075362, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17178636334524158, "rotation_box_production": 0.2869662188885458, "star_box_production": 0.5401649892048057, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10979185757553483, "efg_pct": 0.2526111311289046, "opp_efg_pct": -0.12598121238032378, "turnover_rate": 0.10873249306624028, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13438543308829537, "oreb_pct": 0.10948008457101405, "dreb_pct": 0.028154383668418576, "ft_rate": -0.04089072336662637, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17690368685015156, "pace": 0.10655187828247366, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08513898905681237, "three_pct": 0.21441323316583097, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.04331677882915116, "opp_three_pct": 0.04069351170157511 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.252246780824804, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.31606428820545285, "record": 1.1150474964185237, "rotation_box_production": 0.26820889758407673, "star_box_production": 0.8489852821126612, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.26170523443571025 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9400792973918495, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16976544970503846, "record": 0.384678079752669, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.028524728803838564, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.16922649865589787, "prior_net_rating": 0.5034181659869444, "retained_minutes_share": 0.20868956625977847, "efg_pct": 0.37222268950347176, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14481920081240862, "turnover_rate": 0.08745059328024188, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13131949604637938, "oreb_pct": 0.07583222618567824, "dreb_pct": 0.017852850028395977, "ft_rate": 0.002590715446572205, "opp_ft_rate": -0.13379349430536475, "pace": 0.1289751443812635, "three_attempt_rate": -0.13354274229260737, "three_pct": 0.2317123850455884, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.009913048473228226, "opp_three_pct": 0.015176080525871155 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4899163098144577, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.09007111808099176, "record": 0.9710499764347864, "efg_pct": 0.7812162115771678, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17337339916701042, "turnover_rate": 0.09285464174777859, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.3367636449292447, "oreb_pct": 0.163835028606349, "dreb_pct": 0.22686277462749244, "ft_rate": -0.0006807325924879244, "opp_ft_rate": -0.3175836455968078 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.61469035623325, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21536616559904428, "record": 0.4190040133290536, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07467826983494277, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.27335501287078096, "prior_net_rating": 0.343663939721219, "retained_minutes_share": 0.18625412785811124, "rotation_box_production": 0.2284612853874905, "star_box_production": 0.49595729586689397, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11710993157387035, "pace": 0.1422119750924128, "three_attempt_rate": -0.06180658618562734, "three_pct": 0.2749819185374697, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.01327425246669371, "opp_three_pct": -0.002074648639279818 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1187896357906992, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.33056786091589135, "record": 1.1768209529783575, "pace": 0.3929729641197151, "three_attempt_rate": -0.1788353197363772, "three_pct": 0.41846538915743875, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.0814481958826497, "opp_three_pct": 0.10098173988393404 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.373703722817151, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16693136271604728, "record": 0.3757106031138146, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.06254953657524363, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.19986903880545756, "prior_net_rating": 0.35460436110406496, "retained_minutes_share": 0.20322344863419053, "rotation_box_production": 0.2544519336832206, "star_box_production": 0.4950141985000444, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.12155158286301684, "efg_pct": 0.3099554687667896, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14854813533506026, "turnover_rate": 0.13548744903231386, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1488452302880023, "oreb_pct": 0.13504990230048, "dreb_pct": -0.001916973524839826, "ft_rate": -0.05288805872129898, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14856841001011434 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.196616608717292, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9400792973918495, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666655, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.21828585627204, "brier": 0.8699645803560749, "championProbability": 0.10879544010131938, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.772632194271118, "brier": 1.009645700460648, "championProbability": 0.062497283057097376, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.411860578957385, "brier": 0.9644331871656396, "championProbability": 0.08964834148797547, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.0442248696527705, "brier": 0.8972871748241961, "championProbability": 0.12948051536655655, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.7970633352563046, "brier": 1.0531174784239121, "championProbability": 0.0609889038620416, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.154846930484225, "brier": 0.9629066146798453, "championProbability": 0.11592093321603386, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 4.063164643815665, "brier": 1.494737869178988, "championProbability": 0.01719451839684273, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.3954722903882617, "brier": 0.9033176687538865, "championProbability": 0.09112962910947735, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 4.024621557232477, "brier": 1.4826392727799156, "championProbability": 0.017870185716339675, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.72769344562118, "brier": 1.0550132802136523, "championProbability": 0.0653698951293673, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 3.567917396851909, "brier": 1.301909231271909, "championProbability": 0.02821455225151068, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.4957313262624115, "brier": 1.536829421513572, "championProbability": 0.030326561713714614, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.406649415541018, "brier": 1.2732730331988373, "championProbability": 0.03315209338282109, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.3376583663825663, "brier": 1.0302249344735386, "championProbability": 0.09655346656688427, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 3.9487529139425273, "brier": 1.4709591428507844, "championProbability": 0.01927872902442146, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.2046311218573997, "brier": 1.290253897508313, "championProbability": 0.040573865689960256, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.742770945469447, "brier": 1.4397109969505477, "championProbability": 0.02368837291633037, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 3.4957313262624115, "brier": 1.536829421513572, "championProbability": 0.030326561713714614, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07315612970218058, "strength": 0.03306712930582607, "strength_record": 0.0499464035716793, "adv_record": 0.07508593765722797, "adv_strength": 0.02994392232502597, "adv_strength_record": 0.06201522669129724, "adv_full": 0.025919754788971083, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05809337867668351, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02852899985643946, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06516855010320206, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03095943214588636, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017551392707056898, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.062045938211585584, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.11033513109711864, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.022913631632070643, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03767214083841431, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03266731250811692, "adv_selected": 0.017551392707056898 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014966594580371282, "strength": 0.0016235647394299347, "strength_record": 0.0009494088869721215, "adv_record": 0.0003601054236056219, "adv_strength": 0.0010318498552067564, "adv_strength_record": 0.00030208827438714907, "adv_full": 0.00025876530442429485, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0014312394814081396, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000272359027505119, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0015500594211389589, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0006046333625619496, "adv_add_player_availability": 8.825345541067605e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0005092368674704036, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0005424639932131133, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00025259353819211, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00012936974281351236, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00038440464600655465, "adv_selected": 8.825345541067605e-05 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011061582276036234, "strength": 0.024696900790125664, "strength_record": 0.013864314302397393, "adv_record": 0.005612088990292872, "adv_strength": 0.02161047469218341, "adv_strength_record": 0.006259523127158203, "adv_full": 0.002846590678143375, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011643089450453331, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0029904625890861116, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01175188570648256, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005149637811999727, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008305383125416266, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007754536858672302, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004015023532335229, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0036338471298949177, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008518154641741152, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0030510750887916926, "adv_selected": 0.0008305383125416266 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007925649773624607, "strength": 0.024230984402510293, "strength_record": 0.011256669734295842, "adv_record": 0.0035509296467900473, "adv_strength": 0.02115539947819833, "adv_strength_record": 0.00421023812168337, "adv_full": 0.0008429266038316297, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0037976614768582303, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009299345639569906, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00632573403149471, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002803328313998521, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.000815103269047674, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0028771781329371437, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007011379336498906, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014860815093481112, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0036396533637317176, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009224648632566009, "adv_selected": 0.000815103269047674 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.034076719146229735, "strength": 0.021356641385187104, "strength_record": 0.024965731978896028, "adv_record": 0.026303613996506367, "adv_strength": 0.018371349474780717, "adv_strength_record": 0.022651009921201216, "adv_full": 0.01977062019930876, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04994659020338266, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016754448521407353, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.038618453280963895, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02386788889489343, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011338703588342878, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.029290753374547913, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008680577411563896, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03558841720508462, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03378111392503915, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01627950508583134, "adv_selected": 0.011338703588342878 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.10879544010131938, "strength": 0.062497283057097376, "strength_record": 0.08964834148797547, "adv_record": 0.12948051536655655, "adv_strength": 0.0609889038620416, "adv_strength_record": 0.11592093321603386, "adv_full": 0.01719451839684273, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09112962910947735, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017870185716339675, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0653698951293673, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02821455225151068, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.030326561713714614, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03315209338282109, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09655346656688427, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01927872902442146, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.040573865689960256, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02368837291633037, "adv_selected": 0.030326561713714614 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018238571447932117, "strength": 0.012935508710309445, "strength_record": 0.013082581846359624, "adv_record": 0.01115060086661434, "adv_strength": 0.010490873453854802, "adv_strength_record": 0.00958543677605654, "adv_full": 0.0008261965449394549, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019819308459516766, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007630508031150259, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0157440701653587, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013807314439001962, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007361710210996384, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004007947542817003, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0027454284896785658, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00243743247437556, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004001705962743691, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010527342280337079, "adv_selected": 0.0007361710210996384 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012760475085942198, "strength": 0.008931345855121453, "strength_record": 0.008636246352551048, "adv_record": 0.00682836992515403, "adv_strength": 0.006935014086495711, "adv_strength_record": 0.005742381453664072, "adv_full": 0.0009736007006777379, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01184514451468436, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009645405067112376, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0075228173180346275, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0019555946794398175, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.000522352879881595, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0038283937789815826, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0033502343912479153, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014966352074007635, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005099616325870473, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009848685760178418, "adv_selected": 0.000522352879881595 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0532552887209714, "strength": 0.036627994039268544, "strength_record": 0.04375448305186128, "adv_record": 0.04855589458002275, "adv_strength": 0.03356936633847108, "adv_strength_record": 0.04380590354491013, "adv_full": 0.0074773594131129165, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06274619241856996, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007339386159470548, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.017307627822589256, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022517378497731146, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013454036605414894, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010238644962251285, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.047051527712527935, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007044784721423747, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.020143751998779658, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009170986883998694, "adv_selected": 0.013454036605414894 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.22225863517248576, "strength": 0.3260570196511609, "strength_record": 0.33917960838343253, "adv_record": 0.34527638723572773, "adv_strength": 0.38633417819453386, "adv_strength_record": 0.4055821163230042, "adv_full": 0.7191333487490488, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2139561212494287, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.7106893027792051, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.40085056536846153, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.5802172325260211, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.7692763189170116, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.5646321034695292, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.4279513629139601, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.707871674478864, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.6005442367126268, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.6873358994639389, "adv_selected": 0.7692763189170116 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026068425056351485, "strength": 0.007259231725772274, "strength_record": 0.011778712018139341, "adv_record": 0.01820872346539364, "adv_strength": 0.0055010466521467315, "adv_strength_record": 0.012625292656697113, "adv_full": 0.0032326709192882705, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022034107758908513, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003592805714200073, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01620697814660932, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006059203095232338, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004609387589191668, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004709832627477304, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00922338056749634, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004220982224463023, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004684875091286288, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005205685453601131, "adv_selected": 0.004609387589191668 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018238571447932117, "strength": 0.015152238348510764, "strength_record": 0.014268908354460347, "adv_record": 0.01115060086661434, "adv_strength": 0.01251914372729214, "adv_strength_record": 0.009971878124869347, "adv_full": 0.0022257676677312215, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02069214217221597, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00216623704502221, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011339547292895071, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004554139643451708, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008795117665506483, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0073499306126926, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006568933038160433, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002822238690664359, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008051223442887003, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0021753558881741253, "adv_selected": 0.0008795117665506483 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0532552887209714, "strength": 0.027588769728244224, "strength_record": 0.03745231368941061, "adv_record": 0.04855589458002275, "adv_strength": 0.02445701835538647, "adv_strength_record": 0.04081100140916787, "adv_full": 0.010878374383826543, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04862166585256906, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011112568447677182, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04976803609050212, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014943732960782802, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02445133939685436, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019831465108167513, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.020193147752478, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01789163711131999, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015432698184695889, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0171200628868381, "adv_selected": 0.02445133939685436 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0034441252437716454, "strength": 0.0045926704956059435, "strength_record": 0.0027551920736764986, "adv_record": 0.0011308001700791746, "adv_strength": 0.003298094385482962, "adv_strength_record": 0.0010432725678856589, "adv_full": 5.853990777420719e-05, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017353918755083643, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 6.922703919550571e-05, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0019111125153818257, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00022319154675314235, "adv_add_player_availability": 6.289607453344554e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00031183220226304806, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000258961854861388, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0002138574921915939, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008243347536011066, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 7.304986616172639e-05, "adv_selected": 6.289607453344554e-05 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009761664174120726, "strength": 0.0030176409049511668, "strength_record": 0.004061138783151898, "adv_record": 0.004726951197772849, "adv_strength": 0.0020627106031239273, "adv_strength_record": 0.0031959094961144293, "adv_full": 0.0006218227261987245, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0106101881233842, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005860104075862497, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010251090956121882, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000789140630012204, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005623448893416881, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001612725240824872, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006962038686322766, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013558216627508745, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.000987489227802578, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0008766536600334487, "adv_selected": 0.0005623448893416881 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026068425056351485, "strength": 0.056117661956548916, "strength_record": 0.036184816054360636, "adv_record": 0.01820872346539364, "adv_strength": 0.0540749311706452, "adv_strength_record": 0.021046835753829256, "adv_full": 0.011265389687851733, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026749251354285877, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010174279363299498, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019507517529183865, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.025310094936373387, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.014806031379849255, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012689293025887284, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017438459571681567, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01516459160603332, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009203656213953654, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014586852805729373, "adv_selected": 0.014806031379849255 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026068425056351485, "strength": 0.0060235958544564445, "strength_record": 0.010632313057076018, "adv_record": 0.01820872346539364, "adv_strength": 0.00446571477917455, "adv_strength_record": 0.012050151177736676, "adv_full": 0.0017150305869406955, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019397518697838123, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0021119016864608827, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010813259619593712, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003164754867865164, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0012005502038764501, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005291739384558418, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006738166937584947, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001834686625152176, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006857409160592735, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0017635501450480784, "adv_selected": 0.0012005502038764501 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04197075293035528, "strength": 0.028990884316716353, "strength_record": 0.03341188451417864, "adv_record": 0.035015027627747296, "adv_strength": 0.025850072049553273, "adv_strength_record": 0.031232630369505326, "adv_full": 0.0017221120801260727, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05993630043467988, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016443493704902984, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009164079634383161, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0067127975140076415, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003172806062849456, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0057375710606818574, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012604493682804287, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0033405950411795407, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02681236203066201, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0016337291842034132, "adv_selected": 0.003172806062849456 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014966594580371282, "strength": 0.0035425808242696547, "strength_record": 0.0014568218421655585, "adv_record": 0.0003601054236056219, "adv_strength": 0.002467589175505318, "adv_strength_record": 0.00036711796486017204, "adv_full": 0.0014871933439597142, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005679313024312572, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0015816208506498892, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003986838515208688, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0027818247854463863, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006563411346732824, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001664202755265966, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0005331908125317745, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003053798406255208, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0007426061063808704, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0014338654423819244, "adv_selected": 0.0006563411346732824 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012760475085942198, "strength": 0.015089054698079139, "strength_record": 0.011516123007334634, "adv_record": 0.00682836992515403, "adv_strength": 0.012460821569623973, "adv_strength_record": 0.006546375570493497, "adv_full": 0.0003595492327301651, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012249608195917763, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00037372367519767047, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003041688538541766, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0017046680441496942, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006584520853838269, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0009202584046866998, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0017285689276732793, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006754392448512373, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00473269367047376, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0004028098462310947, "adv_selected": 0.0006584520853838269 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026068425056351485, "strength": 0.04444289753470629, "strength_record": 0.03183734183203229, "adv_record": 0.01820872346539364, "adv_strength": 0.04166764470821375, "adv_strength_record": 0.01985521980665388, "adv_full": 0.06064605262909079, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011703066410709942, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0783645356186368, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03347313265400906, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.09199106286756037, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.042985542531484726, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04095000831848276, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04265641887237307, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03998408279539985, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03943523715109338, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.05326263122361267, "adv_selected": 0.042985542531484726 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009761664174120726, "strength": 0.012215506862540432, "strength_record": 0.008747607696319826, "adv_record": 0.004726951197772849, "adv_strength": 0.009840514461637797, "adv_strength_record": 0.0045324434282046355, "adv_full": 0.001817771325518284, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012058474986515619, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0015404156556350073, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006097615307700039, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003942306387807535, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009182871790562611, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0039677204219677, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0031524040764853998, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002490465609893295, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0030958971860583074, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002104515317156083, "adv_selected": 0.0009182871790562611 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014966594580371282, "strength": 0.001893922196474659, "strength_record": 0.001033147589396596, "adv_record": 0.0003601054236056219, "adv_strength": 0.001225652017744941, "adv_strength_record": 0.00031394166025785385, "adv_full": 6.312812549302126e-05, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012826971519097224, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 7.058490392871808e-05, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0006949939015850801, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0002772117275468376, "adv_add_player_availability": 1.1464801450248153e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00035253075130149274, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006181123318276874, "adv_without_four_factors": 6.711098005159518e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00030270586015387446, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 6.936242139594078e-05, "adv_selected": 1.1464801450248153e-05 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012760475085942198, "strength": 0.016614909593330042, "strength_record": 0.012141291869472748, "adv_record": 0.00682836992515403, "adv_strength": 0.013877053949208218, "adv_strength_record": 0.00670586600480232, "adv_full": 0.0033765198090888768, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013885991354881317, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0029490077485189938, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009694813090760082, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.007950947827704684, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0024496144562373753, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006212110281002789, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004261824057550574, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006742578698000035, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01132684194997965, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0029573431027190254, "adv_selected": 0.0024496144562373753 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018238571447932117, "strength": 0.01829991850817635, "strength_record": 0.01582615047656708, "adv_record": 0.01115060086661434, "adv_strength": 0.015458830507727225, "adv_strength_record": 0.010453463079230068, "adv_full": 0.003216624105532199, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00822258267426036, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0037663560677526947, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.017439394852643796, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005066540051536054, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0021664485193371237, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011869536399304, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013347261546955364, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004065932160044469, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009036959008270357, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00357292735825745, "adv_selected": 0.0021664485193371237 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0027963398424421097, "strength": 0.0040612679984249845, "strength_record": 0.0022757621566658563, "adv_record": 0.0008494675913771355, "adv_strength": 0.0028746560239576824, "adv_strength_record": 0.000791951288628139, "adv_full": 0.000422604576025008, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001728428608904115, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00048436841328966215, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0019953154448705494, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012469333880870328, "adv_add_player_availability": 7.157741660103473e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00197405820111234, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.001879166600257679, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005425754959864052, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002159928135926071, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.000311267320349713, "adv_selected": 7.157741660103473e-05 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0532552887209714, "strength": 0.0906160850184169, "strength_record": 0.07192951009114351, "adv_record": 0.04855589458002275, "adv_strength": 0.09237379382283972, "adv_strength_record": 0.05493300409144875, "adv_full": 0.0800153524429248, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05944265917170066, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07254554357175419, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07962779321341625, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.09437408303912126, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.035437282004392646, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.10644392350992518, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.11287018186270414, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.05834450891774109, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.04117530484036412, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.09530894519967716, "adv_selected": 0.035437282004392646 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0532552887209714, "strength": 0.03490273713472117, "strength_record": 0.042611191494104146, "adv_record": 0.04855589458002275, "adv_strength": 0.03180738601252983, "adv_strength_record": 0.043280946692010956, "adv_full": 0.007956680963302551, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07168817675587658, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0077339224575701995, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03185825521650492, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013324434691089683, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011739329397763407, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01445930268158376, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01152413498512903, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.013143639239704397, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025781343447386938, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008545692958571011, "adv_selected": 0.011739329397763407 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04197075293035528, "strength": 0.05001719648652892, "strength_record": 0.0450695389332196, "adv_record": 0.035015027627747296, "adv_strength": 0.04754932534845288, "adv_strength_record": 0.03579270601700972, "adv_full": 0.009804857798831987, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.057611742978915935, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007573216330207776, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04017806261649987, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011597365851311998, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00715021152579267, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02082224535101504, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008003457894598128, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018394487889703836, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02247193924766923, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009338864197557197, "adv_selected": 0.00715021152579267 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018238571447932117, "strength": 0.007536857877488547, "strength_record": 0.009726444870703543, "adv_record": 0.01115060086661434, "adv_strength": 0.005736668918960946, "adv_strength_record": 0.008375135391198357, "adv_full": 0.003870276308464136, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01537371909812394, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004456655109689767, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01274081651649528, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006315156216217193, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010711491152581919, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014492887080186022, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017466935313186025, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0036471431875376697, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01278088608904118, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0037192114619787483, "adv_selected": 0.0010711491152581919 } } ] }, { "season": 2017, "champion": "GSW", "cutoffDate": "2016-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.730137867997016 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1788059778159683, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.290589872855407 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.5427404506323477, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.18339088649986246, "record": 1.5693420831312794 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2306080087824958, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.13211840439744835, "record": 0.3940033221451674, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.09381358536919632, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17752266770253075, "prior_net_rating": 0.3497876634351019, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10779076020175242, "rotation_box_production": 0.19211055841044952, "star_box_production": 0.46360389466535623, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.04428943896664605, "efg_pct": 0.2751234691718891, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1461783349547303, "turnover_rate": 0.12466319855990815, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0878918622243474, "oreb_pct": 0.12331169946042422, "dreb_pct": 0.05807619256663708, "ft_rate": -0.06357447702813791, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16450600220608072, "pace": 0.021014282135104253, "three_attempt_rate": -0.09356825906656814, "three_pct": 0.16464719772233263, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.006342237594788025, "opp_three_pct": 0.023156225206229477 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.454129699663534, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2514828701497178, "record": 1.5885503749845755, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.9765694249567579, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.7600188531478573 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2637272968858184, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15209484794649647, "record": 0.4078253291683419, "prior_net_rating": 0.34468464588875786, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10342777523070387, "rotation_box_production": 0.18307622180628016, "star_box_production": 0.453192818614582, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.044512751627702025, "efg_pct": 0.24131335443803487, "opp_efg_pct": -0.20778179860969176, "turnover_rate": 0.1635656350644616, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13647167297129553, "oreb_pct": 0.1102433406748627, "dreb_pct": 0.09028800896313588, "ft_rate": -0.07335609473911998, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18338996089547635, "pace": 0.03424182092405183, "three_attempt_rate": -0.10063684242138116, "three_pct": 0.1512398728451344, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.02654892838408533, "opp_three_pct": 0.002226460560071054 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4814412079648136, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.35785813535082267, "record": 0.5519358915445486, "prior_net_rating": 0.46900019597571047, "retained_minutes_share": 0.15576785994796968 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5202675562882257, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1376117596490937, "record": 0.4269541420363827, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.08751900780738142, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.16466759280650736, "rotation_box_production": 0.24499361620529547, "star_box_production": 0.5111473119793338, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0455651897114479, "efg_pct": 0.2644827489785231, "opp_efg_pct": -0.13087605835423755, "turnover_rate": 0.10161023128969211, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08793795594137264, "oreb_pct": 0.10101742651697561, "dreb_pct": 0.08086151319420089, "ft_rate": -0.060673265375466155, "opp_ft_rate": -0.19059815544196876, "pace": 0.0351128670998014, "three_attempt_rate": -0.06862649478607796, "three_pct": 0.16828930382597773, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.03227207096215321, "opp_three_pct": 0.03288222330996195 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4167056078281917, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.18513089472272598, "record": 1.1810521151082207, "rotation_box_production": 0.16176151614924414, "star_box_production": 0.7925088806142587, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10073057194991678 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1345358010006694, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15898798536756079, "record": 0.41618870265636865, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03527124198535142, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.15981130428616963, "prior_net_rating": 0.4808164715913659, "retained_minutes_share": 0.13654208117127623, "efg_pct": 0.3758792416088978, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14059046948700682, "turnover_rate": 0.08261066577451698, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08242727978222053, "oreb_pct": 0.0780262558861606, "dreb_pct": 0.07323205609475761, "ft_rate": -0.019833293680814826, "opp_ft_rate": -0.151881136951378, "pace": 0.06452160822226503, "three_attempt_rate": -0.12195898712441117, "three_pct": 0.1833300912939971, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.01562126317448477, "opp_three_pct": 0.01486493701955178 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.604507948030278, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.15854008966643107, "record": 1.0544446640997336, "efg_pct": 0.7904490081990545, "opp_efg_pct": -0.21842402684362364, "turnover_rate": 0.06759516623269447, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.2210390873206053, "oreb_pct": 0.1883421961813321, "dreb_pct": 0.3121027092182057, "ft_rate": -0.06803218996926534, "opp_ft_rate": -0.3221619276697038 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.580061357501915, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.19723228836046552, "record": 0.4492725787205023, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.08791426790852333, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.25457187064475273, "prior_net_rating": 0.3329329674015807, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10949095277034643, "rotation_box_production": 0.19335355073459962, "star_box_production": 0.47009510882400124, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.05794322023812792, "pace": 0.05755556017557726, "three_attempt_rate": -0.0575554486957893, "three_pct": 0.2255874339621277, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.006319206273898461, "opp_three_pct": 0.004172123565654398 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3475350455596775, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.25021654608481025, "record": 1.24975902766454, "pace": 0.24827983634597545, "three_attempt_rate": -0.13580627310965912, "three_pct": 0.3265866980575309, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.07859359828055211, "opp_three_pct": 0.09266726157220315 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.477569647697182, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14567145488479616, "record": 0.40529541828127885, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07767292400616176, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17597992893463263, "prior_net_rating": 0.33676275863485455, "retained_minutes_share": 0.11916492129946998, "rotation_box_production": 0.20142620864222563, "star_box_production": 0.4664090979622742, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.05752130323653828, "efg_pct": 0.3037270908634783, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1457066136382247, "turnover_rate": 0.1231995594586364, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09264873207827552, "oreb_pct": 0.12000278016613526, "dreb_pct": 0.057312517072484435, "ft_rate": -0.0742718648094041, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16405545520568005 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3898859008113114, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1345358010006694, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.640507861042893, "brier": 0.9387859534620864, "championProbability": 0.07132503714889987, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 3.227950375758081, "brier": 1.0922757596576083, "championProbability": 0.039638659943387604, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.8472840563935464, "brier": 1.0090372268452452, "championProbability": 0.058001636321527814, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.6245663101115397, "brier": 0.9721327728410224, "championProbability": 0.07247118023787005, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 3.3071945419073194, "brier": 1.1456740745582794, "championProbability": 0.036618762185398473, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.674506722180196, "brier": 0.986937813918371, "championProbability": 0.06894082698942965, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.2039809059392055, "brier": 0.5524631599968276, "championProbability": 0.29999756952586454, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.987998558184171, "brier": 1.0280045605900265, "championProbability": 0.05038818488942616, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.067045726122409, "brier": 0.4808746204345128, "championProbability": 0.3440233568402004, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.2250573430144636, "brier": 0.8728700471181235, "championProbability": 0.10806122190095087, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.3585542501048555, "brier": 0.6149399765898838, "championProbability": 0.2570321126094867, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.1394245083454189, "brier": 0.5490592619897013, "championProbability": 0.3200031279650304, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.997871315300285, "brier": 0.8293460413559317, "championProbability": 0.1356236762233397, "topPick": "ATL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.0404501760536813, "brier": 0.8617854320592387, "championProbability": 0.12997018824023088, "topPick": "ATL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.5561394664053703, "brier": 0.7158807505725215, "championProbability": 0.21094887648464603, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.503962103168024, "brier": 0.9357450354915197, "championProbability": 0.08176041283661112, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.073399158369851, "brier": 0.4918498401169452, "championProbability": 0.3418445565102518, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.1394245083454189, "brier": 0.5490592619897013, "championProbability": 0.3200031279650304, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07132503714889987, "strength": 0.0794983347261047, "strength_record": 0.08336620543696345, "adv_record": 0.07247118023787005, "adv_strength": 0.07867165966340736, "adv_strength_record": 0.0768545321297903, "adv_full": 0.11253143307490784, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08553636078765904, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10687024056332728, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07581870443098981, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10710023186011103, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03357742255397681, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.18902102934536494, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.26302992580356166, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0626041870114848, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.11578667877944876, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10232704154643422, "adv_selected": 0.03357742255397681 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008229164981423601, "strength": 0.006161342892725419, "strength_record": 0.00579982357468071, "adv_record": 0.003716085755222767, "adv_strength": 0.004735299195175636, "adv_strength_record": 0.003483857509080793, "adv_full": 0.002612099760948639, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0038605949549936533, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002632156728797608, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003363739582844612, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006680275092946003, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001474246487674297, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00378632309600956, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010855445843224244, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0020110907131476318, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004749811568664248, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003035750749614052, "adv_selected": 0.001474246487674297 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011203133662395122, "strength": 0.007571880599176098, "strength_record": 0.0078116251868232045, "adv_record": 0.0056804509511627155, "adv_strength": 0.005939165966924049, "adv_strength_record": 0.005286991532300329, "adv_full": 0.0037520422531094593, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003954892880355265, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004129388222293084, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.016364756228157754, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00332992965773549, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014697539234589105, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.013320996225313552, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006988791179461473, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00427012468762959, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010449551473306002, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003187311095745571, "adv_selected": 0.0014697539234589105 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.13219331785778154, "strength": 0.05372632538119041, "strength_record": 0.09944878523590216, "adv_record": 0.16933998128499808, "adv_strength": 0.05114773971682811, "adv_strength_record": 0.15611187426797918, "adv_full": 0.017992273253235075, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.18018366344965217, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01604955920359226, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0808463303460962, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01964867566865313, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.020967185804925785, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06015725992862589, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09811465635227413, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02621634370932372, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09377112321791127, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019799899680097967, "adv_selected": 0.020967185804925785 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016903806593462665, "strength": 0.031727071108432314, "strength_record": 0.02124725587351574, "adv_record": 0.010002585286948362, "adv_strength": 0.028671948703253503, "adv_strength_record": 0.011047339076765755, "adv_full": 0.010198461962073737, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009363928245988428, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010768392282434893, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014275608870903062, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016865395512980635, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003766038258150126, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01730472630950733, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.022804258334076427, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007248141022020175, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.019334915363901087, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008081047671693115, "adv_selected": 0.003766038258150126 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.13219331785778154, "strength": 0.03626285337661701, "strength_record": 0.08102231649073502, "adv_record": 0.16933998128499808, "adv_strength": 0.03320668496394246, "adv_strength_record": 0.14681760244315903, "adv_full": 0.06190098085381886, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.1240138827142294, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06219846030705096, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10903825742578038, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.056083426663402935, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.13293702306288882, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06783337286910951, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08385159617697131, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.07952774070046177, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.1189151895138641, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06619750833248383, "adv_selected": 0.13293702306288882 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004006148314408542, "strength": 0.0072213319181637075, "strength_record": 0.004040960526406095, "adv_record": 0.001380572416432009, "adv_strength": 0.005637727652249862, "adv_strength_record": 0.001454670464417077, "adv_full": 0.0015623878241171156, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001832957899822802, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012699620404097564, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005700171507555973, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002118789712060146, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004741236276208418, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0033048373438183346, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026177251094582, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001983440122072143, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0013390591045555629, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0016857331825506968, "adv_selected": 0.0004741236276208418 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011203133662395122, "strength": 0.021393571992170766, "strength_record": 0.013423880089113504, "adv_record": 0.0056804509511627155, "adv_strength": 0.018594868254800157, "adv_strength_record": 0.006217878680860517, "adv_full": 0.009464334774277269, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006920437884200188, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009248648847231755, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012448859075831126, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013914955878789175, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0039049426557912015, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01308324860288775, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006131828937005397, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011550086037451779, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01485175281569861, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007482987108919015, "adv_selected": 0.0039049426557912015 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016903806593462665, "strength": 0.017380036199558333, "strength_record": 0.01552573782551811, "adv_record": 0.010002585286948362, "adv_strength": 0.014799301140198543, "adv_strength_record": 0.010056450504223496, "adv_full": 0.012455691460980986, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012467589614172592, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0109674096458048, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015322307929488894, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016745801611068697, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006141245896225137, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015556851062885547, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007257183024269043, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.015354928285569149, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.018273966139777425, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009314746964598742, "adv_selected": 0.006141245896225137 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07132503714889987, "strength": 0.039638659943387604, "strength_record": 0.058001636321527814, "adv_record": 0.07247118023787005, "adv_strength": 0.036618762185398473, "adv_strength_record": 0.06894082698942965, "adv_full": 0.29999756952586454, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05038818488942616, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.3440233568402004, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10806122190095087, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.2570321126094867, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.3200031279650304, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.1356236762233397, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.12997018824023088, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.21094887648464603, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08176041283661112, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.3418445565102518, "adv_selected": 0.3200031279650304 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03472268182667553, "strength": 0.03462720338756668, "strength_record": 0.034671503029731925, "adv_record": 0.026923951440587283, "adv_strength": 0.03156455064191564, "adv_strength_record": 0.027494757163657284, "adv_full": 0.03654951116313771, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020776457815855333, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03985543919952797, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02658381123957567, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.052608812201364694, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03861739070000088, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03311488085497191, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06921222239237372, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.025149500728487078, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03475862730663993, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03939232158458204, "adv_selected": 0.03861739070000088 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016903806593462665, "strength": 0.007340998687259122, "strength_record": 0.009906978009479896, "adv_record": 0.010002585286948362, "adv_strength": 0.0057404704953068686, "adv_strength_record": 0.008790235279216076, "adv_full": 0.010743398579116032, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007590425505341714, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012255061688092388, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01336480691035453, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013150648977974633, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0035196167552056638, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.022829041964586728, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.024819129847392145, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.008665437581325023, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.024005723832976045, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007364518062203705, "adv_selected": 0.0035196167552056638 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.14651117530857546, "strength": 0.3853644476898664, "strength_record": 0.29593703455504355, "adv_record": 0.19507062240323544, "adv_strength": 0.4457519511864486, "adv_strength_record": 0.24141785941210328, "adv_full": 0.16593748959134058, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2416969644468758, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.14145693115464514, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.18719807235879712, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1709625235789769, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.22518306431108084, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.15804893801760744, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09352106431378913, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.24403026492463256, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.21259489426332118, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.16994702804296724, "adv_selected": 0.22518306431108084 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016903806593462665, "strength": 0.01794641525272306, "strength_record": 0.015787452948374966, "adv_record": 0.010002585286948362, "adv_strength": 0.01533009676776675, "adv_strength_record": 0.01010693218452781, "adv_full": 0.0027378026531129163, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00959958463484468, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032529805951554275, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007031390589072881, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005558545782108198, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0019544954738656643, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006772097712506074, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017624351887101316, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002276289749283893, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01317054602749621, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0029973423330849074, "adv_selected": 0.0019544954738656643 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016903806593462665, "strength": 0.004029326106877455, "strength_record": 0.00724664708513897, "adv_record": 0.010002585286948362, "adv_strength": 0.00296942754362022, "adv_strength_record": 0.008004261815111005, "adv_full": 0.0021872595031120863, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010775077604000729, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0019746306197951876, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008396455739682455, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002862071923222824, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014725719448913164, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004552148203666377, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0037032690575872496, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0035140572399654036, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007381825929107185, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001949118933352329, "adv_selected": 0.0014725719448913164 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0064736048639634424, "strength": 0.012346090106470581, "strength_record": 0.007185790912944819, "adv_record": 0.0026714284638800737, "adv_strength": 0.010163399946208636, "adv_strength_record": 0.0028785450983418604, "adv_full": 0.014440064598882345, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003890981653215571, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012789906500240757, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009983461061257127, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016990368545004568, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006063996255837588, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009674463355058862, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002001243140050683, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.017473548575782667, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005193530082582421, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011402065648839254, "adv_selected": 0.006063996255837588 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.025505245760685115, "strength": 0.01647577223661845, "strength_record": 0.01946105311943903, "adv_record": 0.017613339730043184, "adv_strength": 0.013955408821392049, "adv_strength_record": 0.01666146609968665, "adv_full": 0.009767050832120327, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01714138173465129, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01060536995765876, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010561341985669754, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01745425825288637, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00879216970895366, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01119836578864158, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.024802719131588588, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007083583763381646, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0140035495516244, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01018332623621729, "adv_selected": 0.00879216970895366 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0049209564587280935, "strength": 0.020983312807462046, "strength_record": 0.007999706742086967, "adv_record": 0.0018319934494607215, "adv_strength": 0.018203404694195287, "adv_strength_record": 0.0022209846688069413, "adv_full": 0.01129090995672622, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017182803816966966, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012591201343045108, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008033067673381166, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016783985089455288, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0034683108337761758, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011610284660168276, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0048546254158637675, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01202948238131178, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009139476121737837, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006807981262849995, "adv_selected": 0.0034683108337761758 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0009494443886529821, "strength": 0.0033465494303390676, "strength_record": 0.0011133516521815497, "adv_record": 0.00019054875737974352, "adv_strength": 0.0024214024162072987, "adv_strength_record": 0.00021403650597808367, "adv_full": 0.001720369967779505, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00027666140653839945, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0015002913778750567, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001456653709405074, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003576365637593941, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007367500121462665, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0011257775311666629, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0004620709069258086, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0022599896813812644, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00035455833571286326, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0019008689337756432, "adv_selected": 0.0007367500121462665 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011203133662395122, "strength": 0.006320705189977588, "strength_record": 0.007109736116725882, "adv_record": 0.0056804509511627155, "adv_strength": 0.004870054424752156, "adv_strength_record": 0.005139973867771596, "adv_full": 0.0021756895645828646, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004424628172759635, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0022775011934723236, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005558168313106545, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0038993491597746504, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0017594201829913279, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004684314388882109, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005083457431978833, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002729889760529664, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009136134339635301, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0017410327127258816, "adv_selected": 0.0017594201829913279 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07132503714889987, "strength": 0.02596221245743959, "strength_record": 0.046520211484077464, "adv_record": 0.07247118023787005, "adv_strength": 0.023001728191535495, "adv_strength_record": 0.06453282298986046, "adv_full": 0.1097667642553248, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08920051768037433, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09477689866130493, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.054893536027273766, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10875026152897067, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.11727304929106909, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0571455414580282, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03720920334153668, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.11139088308510785, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06354076548710526, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1020904723625085, "adv_selected": 0.11727304929106909 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008229164981423601, "strength": 0.001809488038552402, "strength_record": 0.003062202434415401, "adv_record": 0.003716085755222767, "adv_strength": 0.0012320520308135565, "adv_strength_record": 0.0028772180697878647, "adv_full": 0.0019525405208579867, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003425204925132369, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001881112416990968, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004681503285753223, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0030655463363535116, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002107235711025633, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0018105427602837809, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0013140488192404794, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0026116551367309404, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0025216839966119816, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001994193947601757, "adv_selected": 0.002107235711025633 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0009494443886529821, "strength": 0.0012029813292472127, "strength_record": 0.0006531451505743043, "adv_record": 0.00019054875737974352, "adv_strength": 0.000786695862182829, "adv_strength_record": 0.00018243443818977668, "adv_full": 0.0005042474079385636, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0002553837260611952, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004367063290134876, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0006640731834053428, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013040738349546063, "adv_add_player_availability": 8.07472905528408e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008923567229719908, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000736588575306032, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005021760008136137, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00050595628424621, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00042365995284757873, "adv_selected": 8.07472905528408e-05 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0064736048639634424, "strength": 0.005637479686275678, "strength_record": 0.004775394566873421, "adv_record": 0.0026714284638800737, "adv_strength": 0.0042947953195477786, "adv_strength_record": 0.0025469151669037524, "adv_full": 0.0011569498121715275, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0026982725363710134, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012066599803134711, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004664094876286184, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0018623064186368634, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005946487173251842, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003140895115709307, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0020144573835961443, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0017650395013351738, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005531212824418733, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010329680621374896, "adv_selected": 0.0005946487173251842 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02327719389857173, "strength": 0.009123235056085652, "strength_record": 0.013516535532483562, "adv_record": 0.015532278454754248, "adv_strength": 0.007289064492764234, "adv_strength_record": 0.013555010745711946, "adv_full": 0.00621216949375716, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011391241977045814, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007028078228149008, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0204865919120729, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006543166505477629, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005201312770775793, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014134159447934202, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007517501524300322, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009978248743955339, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02208593115794059, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005559114882487381, "adv_selected": 0.005201312770775793 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012275477817226266, "strength": 0.009161748989250793, "strength_record": 0.009128111541912017, "adv_record": 0.006441534815006567, "adv_strength": 0.0073228841128874355, "adv_strength_record": 0.006104708615432679, "adv_full": 0.003984470329487062, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0059184277439390375, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004002264996330672, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007924726912469773, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006102232683758604, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00764438298462065, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0036682335506794195, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00227710999002825, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006320305714043815, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0051230026891587324, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003735816796798548, "adv_selected": 0.00764438298462065 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03472268182667553, "strength": 0.049674680994109585, "strength_record": 0.041847135311691944, "adv_record": 0.026923951440587283, "adv_strength": 0.04692544871812823, "adv_strength_record": 0.029088444896438324, "adv_full": 0.05837102884562449, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026177013780843937, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05544087152364872, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.08470004136165524, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.042877366159187684, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02892210317624147, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07043535828180648, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0186320940685022, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.09041977650127955, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.044817327629833814, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03945314731263871, "adv_selected": 0.02892210317624147 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.058065678846312335, "strength": 0.03702932481183444, "strength_record": 0.04930822441484716, "adv_record": 0.054613575420877074, "adv_strength": 0.03397873874969984, "adv_strength_record": 0.052773134720213194, "adv_full": 0.014747422489844238, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04742216621909534, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015899314621742936, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0646237357202074, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011479640954583448, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017778515531065294, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02779426041700804, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02292529082350716, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0166063465509613, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02406315823738477, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.017930316323195375, "adv_selected": 0.017778515531065294 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02327719389857173, "strength": 0.04157145492565365, "strength_record": 0.02979898899293841, "adv_record": 0.015532278454754248, "adv_strength": 0.03858546314019977, "adv_strength_record": 0.01717686608797546, "adv_full": 0.00881723254615008, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015166356965223064, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008533811457019196, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.030564349138888454, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009376021789027644, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0028851477571573505, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03206107285954802, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.027007549699178988, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00911383385454447, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.019860640190075975, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007288439800574131, "adv_selected": 0.0028851477571573505 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0049209564587280935, "strength": 0.009465164678864095, "strength_record": 0.005282569837853006, "adv_record": 0.0018319934494607215, "adv_strength": 0.007589805002249185, "adv_strength_record": 0.0019613685762796805, "adv_full": 0.0044703531456000995, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001932477769634236, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004077393474835746, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007390160703086736, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005272860373453343, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001229960355674844, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006314945901912306, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026604032496196166, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004364731751340211, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0029789948986524684, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003849683966222909, "adv_selected": 0.001229960355674844 } } ] }, { "season": 2018, "champion": "GSW", "cutoffDate": "2017-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.7190196781515423 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.228334903626587, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2210409601730325 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.6276797941073444, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.11003660336872063, "record": 1.6211320403681917 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.279930088048907, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.11706132846601007, "record": 0.4053626150559369, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.08253456620252363, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.14805803865977687, "prior_net_rating": 0.37468248225006456, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09739427716407742, "rotation_box_production": 0.2774912503271115, "star_box_production": 0.4639499961269529, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.07334649896160694, "efg_pct": 0.313210685137071, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14576907601609165, "turnover_rate": 0.1503430209393353, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.06070380614613795, "oreb_pct": 0.10887660313790003, "dreb_pct": 0.010761838388413894, "ft_rate": -0.10463218265977144, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1627671835067106, "pace": 0.04107950926682109, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07655425456580074, "three_pct": 0.14117199347700668, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.008993296593961591, "opp_three_pct": 0.019068189536319117 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3152242781386083, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.1415584998544774, "record": 1.6351407468215435, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.829690934171629, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.8106557613727757 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.344201881474524, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.13491180057208252, "record": 0.4175359862395718, "prior_net_rating": 0.36943339441482226, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09343548310106864, "rotation_box_production": 0.2638973888646406, "star_box_production": 0.4559063291110072, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.07091941525991932, "efg_pct": 0.28040903008495865, "opp_efg_pct": -0.19969567766205196, "turnover_rate": 0.18254070474419587, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10408164423253538, "oreb_pct": 0.09920767111247204, "dreb_pct": 0.04219667899888982, "ft_rate": -0.11048653310861342, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17914282167194523, "pace": 0.051510518709370796, "three_attempt_rate": -0.0857300282328966, "three_pct": 0.12993511572220748, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.0266732555073284, "opp_three_pct": 2.3739457789813223e-05 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3242861544267686, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.337964895889694, "record": 0.560765699998642, "prior_net_rating": 0.5355060054912463, "retained_minutes_share": 0.13322168889173147 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.48746642148003, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1205663531605682, "record": 0.439375773029177, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07611334868344118, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1322169236540199, "rotation_box_production": 0.3401358600861174, "star_box_production": 0.5142069769347495, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.07709602619424033, "efg_pct": 0.3018061461015302, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1304273746302289, "turnover_rate": 0.12466541522943912, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.06092203476716677, "oreb_pct": 0.08242427503073162, "dreb_pct": 0.0307656178140294, "ft_rate": -0.10489446105817114, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18950945006812359, "pace": 0.05555089640676018, "three_attempt_rate": -0.04874079380839272, "three_pct": 0.14380029174332004, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.03449649298816369, "opp_three_pct": 0.024989981103365522 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.299133234747821, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.08656823504010074, "record": 1.2010792496996852, "rotation_box_production": 0.3616885069255069, "star_box_production": 0.7621255829126445, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1793896213065059 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0239678795945304, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14742577605864954, "record": 0.4348591389390416, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.0076480380948880855, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.11958983582198476, "prior_net_rating": 0.5434522185765944, "retained_minutes_share": 0.12043642581778165, "efg_pct": 0.4366086018009522, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14461009656014062, "turnover_rate": 0.11316957909963353, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.050257239243725486, "oreb_pct": 0.056286837495044345, "dreb_pct": 0.012981214742964249, "ft_rate": -0.07857760908859077, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14599966673930279, "pace": 0.10301044323516828, "three_attempt_rate": -0.10577080919149434, "three_pct": 0.1516820985393087, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.010561710076147875, "opp_three_pct": 0.008625117181504686 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5371038777269455, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.18315284405031082, "record": 1.1165703307762624, "efg_pct": 0.8928409664742122, "opp_efg_pct": -0.21867824117512039, "turnover_rate": 0.08736801580917734, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.11030468917779454, "oreb_pct": 0.1314297580313081, "dreb_pct": 0.1961112942995777, "ft_rate": -0.1784207215880124, "opp_ft_rate": -0.2945241154311418 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5201045595632223, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16988221045439703, "record": 0.4573320571283346, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.06940955413347608, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.20179179685462711, "prior_net_rating": 0.35537853239711686, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09153125715275869, "rotation_box_production": 0.28744031821823146, "star_box_production": 0.47396032494239904, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10146486557956534, "pace": 0.09102074810101693, "three_attempt_rate": -0.028294828755970024, "three_pct": 0.21599723310236146, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.01402391180271727, "opp_three_pct": -0.003478582493765045 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.259602203431421, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1723040431005314, "record": 1.3174141215718405, "pace": 0.315638685750642, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08186076382309582, "three_pct": 0.3291054562432377, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.09281273295041825, "opp_three_pct": 0.1005213387827445 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.480502142749498, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.12995586747114077, "record": 0.4142554913771935, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07029163600964938, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.15052879527636207, "prior_net_rating": 0.36361392311453516, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10817801774920209, "rotation_box_production": 0.2817910636157135, "star_box_production": 0.4666417722627118, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08106189575553391, "efg_pct": 0.33720085550680395, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14520419001616652, "turnover_rate": 0.15197467918333987, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.06853183219819423, "oreb_pct": 0.10835029576203979, "dreb_pct": 0.012285733061568284, "ft_rate": -0.1106670307411499, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16379910268319994 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2436095960955935, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0239678795945304, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.182645697446177, "brier": 0.8710859328727177, "championProbability": 0.11274285223209554, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.3221424437862836, "brier": 0.5753616228012124, "championProbability": 0.2665635922447085, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.6344033063915187, "brier": 0.7150834286749128, "championProbability": 0.19506873284573809, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.061907552690568, "brier": 0.887547749863151, "championProbability": 0.12721107647127858, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.2367887820183456, "brier": 0.5410667096605537, "championProbability": 0.29031498739527584, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.9496209704304868, "brier": 0.857642716548414, "championProbability": 0.1423280078877007, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 0.36732035577772293, "brier": 0.10285268180440936, "championProbability": 0.6925877350187168, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.870667471874515, "brier": 0.8203110646754121, "championProbability": 0.15402082293052216, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 0.3340085205053976, "brier": 0.08805493196026033, "championProbability": 0.7160476811130844, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.0278183786811352, "brier": 0.4463107982044982, "championProbability": 0.35778666476570864, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 0.7256281601255374, "brier": 0.2872785677007773, "championProbability": 0.4840204311069618, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.0310794388067126, "brier": 0.47986289223331896, "championProbability": 0.3566218013169629, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 0.35240488666892705, "brier": 0.09425799698673824, "championProbability": 0.7029954308681378, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 0.7408098643766109, "brier": 0.3148760775498065, "championProbability": 0.47672767437984975, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 0.6807625658252008, "brier": 0.26149020835648157, "championProbability": 0.5062308108238825, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.2358498303288714, "brier": 0.5519700805560854, "championProbability": 0.29058770715847504, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 0.4339055906453363, "brier": 0.13934559636617058, "championProbability": 0.6479734273508224, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.0310794388067126, "brier": 0.47986289223331896, "championProbability": 0.3566218013169629, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0012259875913707603, "strength": 0.003246095015773954, "strength_record": 0.0013875950237087651, "adv_record": 0.000369767185576926, "adv_strength": 0.002694693904320312, "adv_strength_record": 0.0003784313988136282, "adv_full": 0.0005424996363254996, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00040441304777106716, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000491561838251391, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0021929616634371036, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008841445970669426, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00011607568574583273, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0015273446048590456, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0003595198010899378, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0011094376306690986, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010568163832166593, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0004122814614255772, "adv_selected": 0.00011607568574583273 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0052100155120886815, "strength": 0.00497539681903826, "strength_record": 0.004146250393171191, "adv_record": 0.002396841230996831, "adv_strength": 0.004240331342834017, "adv_strength_record": 0.0022973082754917306, "adv_full": 0.00026389844711715795, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002368872724872922, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00025587509965236267, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002312695654810012, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007712434169705732, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0002702694118702924, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008838181929316912, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0007547724144186717, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0007908995631425571, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0066075414320747785, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0002547255210539202, "adv_selected": 0.0002702694118702924 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.21881853997917183, "strength": 0.12139411404189578, "strength_record": 0.19788072940640236, "adv_record": 0.299611921453087, "adv_strength": 0.125957814013275, "adv_strength_record": 0.29611406097402126, "adv_full": 0.017378224585370017, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2582889722692721, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014760239655608689, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.08654750421612915, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.027931872373562486, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.043633456309975775, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03323387369241667, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07951179618155682, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.035434110201220705, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.15242829878368647, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019306386058406014, "adv_selected": 0.043633456309975775 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010740277122393673, "strength": 0.013793483332324863, "strength_record": 0.010692252324243628, "adv_record": 0.006102316327052437, "adv_strength": 0.012517662979424773, "adv_strength_record": 0.0061140626233396845, "adv_full": 0.004550705310635768, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006786224603980002, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0038477068750879177, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011191870807644805, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008124691978745937, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00528417504044826, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005508073085028429, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004200997771419142, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010894031098466988, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00895891944588514, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004164104922810584, "adv_selected": 0.00528417504044826 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0016909083222207831, "strength": 0.005550158839230725, "strength_record": 0.002203113632525741, "adv_record": 0.0005601554522956917, "adv_strength": 0.00476213697376717, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005893605742139738, "adv_full": 0.0005730350072577936, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000628630924834656, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004621786031996369, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0034770982202782874, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008483147470000588, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001252375438525165, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0013192016132876053, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006459288810803065, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000865215374349616, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00046904193989997313, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0006795712008655168, "adv_selected": 0.0001252375438525165 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007945269344584746, "strength": 0.006211651310866684, "strength_record": 0.005988147479887694, "adv_record": 0.004134169505184403, "adv_strength": 0.005366802949205058, "adv_strength_record": 0.003923803825409954, "adv_full": 0.006952710733251792, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004453017116821655, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007515022573209677, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010399480412045485, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010822595780960571, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010692357581589512, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005911615493405699, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006105834653669456, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009354128622360002, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004937724519160674, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007248839964809386, "adv_selected": 0.010692357581589512 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0010867341867472212, "strength": 0.0032392943280691606, "strength_record": 0.0012878444029814752, "adv_record": 0.00031643593205642965, "adv_strength": 0.0026887010740811426, "adv_strength_record": 0.00032667002246324506, "adv_full": 0.00047972772764367957, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00036886135504922787, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00042097447839825256, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0021697539981231947, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008433571300584489, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001757475394106297, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008680703068780154, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00033184112783810884, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0011066413130987392, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005289216727965905, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00047250409602725684, "adv_selected": 0.0001757475394106297 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02992945585306752, "strength": 0.01916611068150892, "strength_record": 0.023523708308924914, "adv_record": 0.022932774648289748, "adv_strength": 0.017749363907588012, "adv_strength_record": 0.02198965028752773, "adv_full": 0.03693342175163557, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023080471976934712, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.033023182872828266, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.023109762413112786, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06026638077514653, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0632219747236488, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01640604788428815, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019049085188235802, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.045872903596448765, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025857232648440334, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.036171593723396595, "adv_selected": 0.0632219747236488 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09409031011222364, "strength": 0.04801811600572572, "strength_record": 0.07463045070563815, "adv_record": 0.1007073261444497, "adv_strength": 0.047056810820384674, "adv_strength_record": 0.09691467239867346, "adv_full": 0.013122018926018848, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09794939306293851, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011855310535044702, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03413719691074902, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02617410049697561, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0335461193115515, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01695887563768922, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.059575204427629216, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02092534025817479, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07668428394341209, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013408181887265861, "adv_selected": 0.0335461193115515 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11274285223209554, "strength": 0.2665635922447085, "strength_record": 0.19506873284573809, "adv_record": 0.12721107647127858, "adv_strength": 0.29031498739527584, "adv_strength_record": 0.1423280078877007, "adv_full": 0.6925877350187168, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15402082293052216, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.7160476811130844, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.35778666476570864, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.4840204311069618, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.3566218013169629, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.7029954308681378, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.47672767437984975, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.5062308108238825, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.29058770715847504, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.6479734273508224, "adv_selected": 0.3566218013169629 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11274285223209554, "strength": 0.07107854694262848, "strength_record": 0.10124005144401606, "adv_record": 0.12721107647127858, "adv_strength": 0.07135881789727133, "adv_strength_record": 0.12542123647639, "adv_full": 0.0662948481971112, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.13544915822293632, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06505447488867211, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10870694206582221, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0894731421637631, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.21874210726623936, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04692071267845683, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.16352059515225584, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.08755424733187835, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06377662615192778, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10575016090199006, "adv_selected": 0.21874210726623936 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007945269344584746, "strength": 0.014010745752463336, "strength_record": 0.008965372743751664, "adv_record": 0.004134169505184403, "adv_strength": 0.012727075420495261, "adv_strength_record": 0.0042413327582565335, "adv_full": 0.0017869574142633175, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0045876157239424925, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001798300005846584, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007279617658228597, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0036162499027903934, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001080982504953752, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0055013746338811705, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005645932558699181, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002964677921790291, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010920141059241347, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0014134028603584833, "adv_selected": 0.001080982504953752 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015420687017428238, "strength": 0.03398698474715094, "strength_record": 0.020856082174686503, "adv_record": 0.009736938821838483, "adv_strength": 0.03260506157200707, "adv_strength_record": 0.010355458657454344, "adv_full": 0.010932146294078416, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011411480470929198, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010754622146483912, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.027122839184568162, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01349886021110231, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011917605198341655, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011039246947856839, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0057602823473886745, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.017825474299969217, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010572829960320846, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011357109449010883, "adv_selected": 0.011917605198341655 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007945269344584746, "strength": 0.009904663647432017, "strength_record": 0.007548031974828473, "adv_record": 0.004134169505184403, "adv_strength": 0.008807031004205965, "adv_strength_record": 0.004102916826130789, "adv_full": 0.001208294869991918, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004229725370764855, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0010978946382476725, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00307312401717244, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003586988238701728, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0012638769061115664, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0019162076904227026, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0036390918859818284, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015832991691263128, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0036125763209869347, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0014803204916623443, "adv_selected": 0.0012638769061115664 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04564239540894329, "strength": 0.04268831434765701, "strength_record": 0.045277138461112726, "adv_record": 0.03955538497674932, "adv_strength": 0.04153164197417019, "adv_strength_record": 0.03969691977335722, "adv_full": 0.0033218963652955425, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03859061076322084, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002778733365320353, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03236999097787574, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004814338479089373, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009749494117169997, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007437570108433615, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005875626839170441, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011146419328031827, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.016394570402009628, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004240496185787926, "adv_selected": 0.009749494117169997 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010740277122393673, "strength": 0.012510775018901587, "strength_record": 0.01018676936404148, "adv_record": 0.006102316327052437, "adv_strength": 0.011285544230670347, "adv_strength_record": 0.006057236745658642, "adv_full": 0.008845999152911668, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006433242544526833, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007726190937905338, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014564276866845995, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011738179348341801, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005041511264263173, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009612481482868635, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006463535090076303, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011191274400131198, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007423046005805627, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009724337178239003, "adv_selected": 0.005041511264263173 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0069584034349965225, "strength": 0.009879862430579773, "strength_record": 0.006952665304412808, "adv_record": 0.0034832243423166365, "adv_strength": 0.008783621714511565, "adv_strength_record": 0.0034899461628252774, "adv_full": 0.006195425531286046, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004110230057472559, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006003004293583046, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01000318653521349, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009816134977220286, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006827429631793731, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007096229038093742, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0062355446731292225, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011926972540249669, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007676083466756281, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005290950876808801, "adv_selected": 0.006827429631793731 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04564239540894329, "strength": 0.01183875887386357, "strength_record": 0.023961176713130396, "adv_record": 0.03955538497674932, "adv_strength": 0.010643085094271853, "adv_strength_record": 0.03511313113257304, "adv_full": 0.01797361078340955, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03885135502159321, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01931545968612781, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015923922123786863, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04293438390389465, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0865938384648761, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00866738837096251, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.020014929808259963, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.030078997438148604, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.042871166915419805, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016160257416338197, "adv_selected": 0.0865938384648761 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015420687017428238, "strength": 0.017934266847804657, "strength_record": 0.015187286324417414, "adv_record": 0.009736938821838483, "adv_strength": 0.016540757076023028, "adv_strength_record": 0.009741126310586762, "adv_full": 0.017195823058102556, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010280413705700066, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014901665501780315, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010491127864812278, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.044138785207057364, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04126939541854149, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006258202673797852, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010119334807979488, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.027543888264387764, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009611375859723601, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02022434352270876, "adv_selected": 0.04126939541854149 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02214073113566757, "strength": 0.013505072912073101, "strength_record": 0.016451302055438197, "adv_record": 0.015536391845163469, "adv_strength": 0.012239987445715913, "adv_strength_record": 0.014729784922046093, "adv_full": 0.005084493442717321, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015739121856490675, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005037218241031783, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007494311188913138, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011737695136933964, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008461719924855303, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0052193773374913524, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016525612597891783, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004505700163128756, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00990214251987461, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005442617279412965, "adv_selected": 0.008461719924855303 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0052100155120886815, "strength": 0.045268444832656934, "strength_record": 0.012401417043934323, "adv_record": 0.002396841230996831, "adv_strength": 0.044201348831634416, "adv_strength_record": 0.002837668431279528, "adv_full": 0.022608844125577048, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0026749702926444283, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017590365569357922, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012475948100973638, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03725937773072315, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.016766988891513443, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007110035988691716, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026882747228256657, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.032831872667889984, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002768541116764477, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02756207389804307, "adv_selected": 0.016766988891513443 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04564239540894329, "strength": 0.033316520048263853, "strength_record": 0.04003741717430924, "adv_record": 0.03955538497674932, "adv_strength": 0.03192265736292871, "adv_strength_record": 0.0387666459407803, "adv_full": 0.008050394666027489, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03982123572262353, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007859874130879248, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010472923256674042, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02665846390610716, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012293742808481762, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.013058570338459792, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04867820102931756, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011662853118454353, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08635912826642417, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0066028183854309605, "adv_selected": 0.012293742808481762 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02214073113566757, "strength": 0.01960723506766608, "strength_record": 0.019794322014490405, "adv_record": 0.015536391845163469, "adv_strength": 0.018183348573062877, "adv_strength_record": 0.015264651198775387, "adv_full": 0.01037456336564504, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015444591963645, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009023764963092243, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007927129855775572, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02707094779126461, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012343672071192661, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008567236285506987, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014589783306102467, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.016525023383010706, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0331070046457332, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00858509158600645, "adv_selected": 0.012343672071192661 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004093676558421332, "strength": 0.0015493249060833892, "strength_record": 0.0020061167459696884, "adv_record": 0.0017553111722611746, "adv_strength": 0.0012288677940217904, "adv_strength_record": 0.0015316668490076041, "adv_full": 0.00032444239833339853, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017741612075148159, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003325029451430665, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002231010521456148, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007058398184476131, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005137455708382658, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006394028728625888, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00036300146034629304, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00111020607563926, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003772755180019468, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0002800856614919892, "adv_selected": 0.0005137455708382658 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02214073113566757, "strength": 0.047426097653354336, "strength_record": 0.030681305875419375, "adv_record": 0.015536391845163469, "adv_strength": 0.04644114372866962, "adv_strength_record": 0.01661059399234002, "adv_full": 0.0069129017605288855, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017002648662930796, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006196485247920527, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.025155056893221887, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009932057296505871, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008469736647272285, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00856618377181779, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003642932308011367, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.021316662856122253, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025681340834372048, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005729920282933283, "adv_selected": 0.008469736647272285 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0025273334502336443, "strength": 0.00268845540336949, "strength_record": 0.001964857861440388, "adv_record": 0.0009414208603278515, "adv_strength": 0.002206017532213406, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008972230392957615, "adv_full": 0.000641260887059094, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0011215920593765209, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005162158874514309, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001914187163882741, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013104951274608544, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0003151557235242686, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0010508875556941386, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0005354796223511892, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0011300639697233948, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0011202445835000487, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005325151139748059, "adv_selected": 0.0003151557235242686 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04564239540894329, "strength": 0.023900674182524534, "strength_record": 0.03395416697591965, "adv_record": 0.03955538497674932, "adv_strength": 0.022436983612443142, "adv_strength_record": 0.03755417219098784, "adv_full": 0.015039251691009954, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.037633184374634844, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01282464985172069, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06959546919128755, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011735298491603806, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013355787576388618, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.026804591536197898, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011835048235182452, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.029580439395932294, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.035042458531857924, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01333639197429064, "adv_selected": 0.013355787576388618 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04564239540894329, "strength": 0.05622325628792712, "strength_record": 0.05190688396738514, "adv_record": 0.03955538497674932, "adv_strength": 0.05563566899749937, "adv_strength_record": 0.04075673170329659, "adv_full": 0.009203656255170242, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.044114466130626535, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009171354418973035, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05717123910409049, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011366573278144474, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0207226340001765, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01662014832200594, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016229382352543318, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.021057929744433688, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03022607512260919, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011859385413421573, "adv_selected": 0.0207226340001765 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010740277122393673, "strength": 0.011913071040556611, "strength_record": 0.009942315842229743, "adv_record": 0.006102316327052437, "adv_strength": 0.010714020660522645, "adv_strength_record": 0.006028935034327297, "adv_full": 0.008024617235513362, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005973186883853812, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00670729627651635, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.017223687753750286, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009024087813107616, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0037140295137771274, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009666388778496644, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004044951712423224, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011083361067494347, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005826691283774097, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008422143420673564, "adv_selected": 0.0037140295137771274 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02214073113566757, "strength": 0.028610916437900695, "strength_record": 0.023876495415844398, "adv_record": 0.015536391845163469, "adv_strength": 0.027158014117505454, "adv_strength_record": 0.01582659358697571, "adv_full": 0.006596595361994771, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016407328951575716, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006630193359581468, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02547902061361011, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00889496877429077, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00686933203463299, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012635412209078874, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006329804663276546, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.014797118382644267, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025218713845831072, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005913961914532997, "adv_selected": 0.00686933203463299 } } ] }, { "season": 2022, "champion": "GSW", "cutoffDate": "2021-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.751120735544469 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.211692168532985, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3207473484150165 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.4885906928984443, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3290898879351858, "record": 1.459432270147619 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.246899176287065, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1325646452572306, "record": 0.4035947503373947, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.06400205214551523, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1485412495876224, "prior_net_rating": 0.40349602161422027, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10523198639044853, "rotation_box_production": 0.2930155257252295, "star_box_production": 0.45492175642405336, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0573836832893528, "efg_pct": 0.3301427471835329, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15930746791964953, "turnover_rate": 0.16353003131993396, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.04338689145057849, "oreb_pct": 0.11284498117438256, "dreb_pct": -0.0006116361642447788, "ft_rate": -0.11735479223044966, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1575900872441293, "pace": 0.04970100267971271, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08489459925593953, "three_pct": 0.1516583320979929, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.014002231655211007, "opp_three_pct": 0.01469496398130513 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1204338859025196, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4896194489528956, "record": 1.501889645452604, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.8448886645143235, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.982232322930287 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2968484405145233, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15212227637813053, "record": 0.41690568087033925, "prior_net_rating": 0.3965796651172032, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10078677990123643, "rotation_box_production": 0.27987171921383813, "star_box_production": 0.448053036287267, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.056094170974911255, "efg_pct": 0.30008824357565433, "opp_efg_pct": -0.21097512405032956, "turnover_rate": 0.1916755560614817, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08614431498628544, "oreb_pct": 0.10452084042843049, "dreb_pct": 0.029518222379789728, "ft_rate": -0.1216724715797591, "opp_ft_rate": -0.173112928012423, "pace": 0.05881752742353426, "three_attempt_rate": -0.09259068288510033, "three_pct": 0.1417165672146216, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.030017226027373754, "opp_three_pct": -0.003940867670564142 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1252583910346314, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3817641542791195, "record": 0.5554837761001851, "prior_net_rating": 0.591695336267638, "retained_minutes_share": 0.15204259451428181 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3415016172001404, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14746090263264255, "record": 0.43940998103815015, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.04307652310221802, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.12973771230941064, "rotation_box_production": 0.3717103311616825, "star_box_production": 0.5044550678134879, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0528174804570298, "efg_pct": 0.32659076074910826, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14929176149653212, "turnover_rate": 0.1423753708663032, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.03302415323230305, "oreb_pct": 0.08553361448837216, "dreb_pct": 0.015651086998611553, "ft_rate": -0.12506762836242544, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18571652603065553, "pace": 0.06940416350057314, "three_attempt_rate": -0.05733101423103463, "three_pct": 0.15996089169486424, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.04605283386553332, "opp_three_pct": 0.021195467016682585 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1417827272855927, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.22134641000068914, "record": 1.1603931900687348, "rotation_box_production": 0.4668269428402945, "star_box_production": 0.7321695886134805, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.09427872205057576 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9246790355157486, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1607098070438941, "record": 0.43085776209741394, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.010366972452548263, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.11755216314618264, "prior_net_rating": 0.5703135165250268, "retained_minutes_share": 0.12918029894939762, "efg_pct": 0.45429511897144154, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15523316902823467, "turnover_rate": 0.12974675697029947, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.03774318360027163, "oreb_pct": 0.05877699772748199, "dreb_pct": 0.0009771657199157567, "ft_rate": -0.09215091808932598, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14296026580613658, "pace": 0.11235945408038635, "three_attempt_rate": -0.1093484018129309, "three_pct": 0.16010865886912543, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.010773093328962558, "opp_three_pct": 0.006864214153368073 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.318633978621144, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.08352465211559607, "record": 1.0732336197202015, "efg_pct": 0.9567334580730893, "opp_efg_pct": -0.22983623515232918, "turnover_rate": 0.10861855099778375, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.04251763565574237, "oreb_pct": 0.1358138015902492, "dreb_pct": 0.1495921460862701, "ft_rate": -0.22054767884604157, "opp_ft_rate": -0.285366222215938 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3421750900445613, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1943265587081558, "record": 0.4548331199152086, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.036238772727576564, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.19791564775019627, "prior_net_rating": 0.39602501139927215, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1015848095122203, "rotation_box_production": 0.3125490105602302, "star_box_production": 0.46344524923898156, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08083838340931802, "pace": 0.11079034799255995, "three_attempt_rate": -0.034163455457786374, "three_pct": 0.23862909929562917, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.02455564762938007, "opp_three_pct": -0.013564111456798303 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.101718239670799, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2981450195735019, "record": 1.257584048870472, "pace": 0.3704911399851154, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07610253630703037, "three_pct": 0.38208221438023077, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.0987152960117291, "opp_three_pct": 0.1417757789762719 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3560369115074353, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1482448919992091, "record": 0.4127431336704126, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.05014782538225783, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.15293211564332154, "prior_net_rating": 0.39426629592160506, "retained_minutes_share": 0.11879767634858908, "rotation_box_production": 0.3004195848007688, "star_box_production": 0.45605504843405864, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.06321398231415123, "efg_pct": 0.3575135339330438, "opp_efg_pct": -0.16344073744434004, "turnover_rate": 0.16684521248017717, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.04938659906677895, "oreb_pct": 0.11332327826234445, "dreb_pct": -0.004443612971101032, "ft_rate": -0.12548738788693925, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1570541620950927 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0626391955505676, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9246790355157486, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 1.388431549044854, "brier": 0.5978555519658362, "championProbability": 0.2494662735587647, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.6631157738954472, "brier": 0.7121232769516029, "championProbability": 0.18954747201207756, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.3227570498440033, "brier": 0.5778819809126119, "championProbability": 0.2663998109817811, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 1.075213916659895, "brier": 0.46413786232147963, "championProbability": 0.3412247538335434, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.5611834842225034, "brier": 0.6840558701440169, "championProbability": 0.2098875255798404, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.0264432063580191, "brier": 0.44319945975235764, "championProbability": 0.3582790215447911, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.3324396820259041, "brier": 0.6030645807874456, "championProbability": 0.26383280733020525, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.283543014876894, "brier": 0.560189126123121, "championProbability": 0.27705395319699516, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.397866024218155, "brier": 0.6265425795301417, "championProbability": 0.24712375777326198, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.074058380754767, "brier": 0.842587404480155, "championProbability": 0.125674709521265, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.0998778967286469, "brier": 0.48496942596066567, "championProbability": 0.3329117308278612, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.009371892327728, "brier": 0.4544920942935064, "championProbability": 0.36444782016772287, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.3824751092029133, "brier": 0.6084171122889012, "championProbability": 0.2509566386383725, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 0.5746969896170866, "brier": 0.20558296283251962, "championProbability": 0.5628754000597854, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.348494015130902, "brier": 0.5991096715109913, "championProbability": 0.2596309666807305, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 0.8598780353413586, "brier": 0.35474955414811654, "championProbability": 0.42321369628414457, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.4178163287471175, "brier": 0.6630048786696086, "championProbability": 0.24224241756385667, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.009371892327728, "brier": 0.4544920942935064, "championProbability": 0.36444782016772287, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00475474486369547, "strength": 0.009513931127549663, "strength_record": 0.005376073035435067, "adv_record": 0.0024510635424131347, "adv_strength": 0.007960942002592595, "adv_strength_record": 0.0025914278777092277, "adv_full": 0.012330039109296868, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004698698223119127, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01494382739100532, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013643072445173888, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01107670181110211, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004913693448420179, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010916659318718689, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026395845576074255, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01513537685997035, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004243783478131902, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008835750464831564, "adv_selected": 0.004913693448420179 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03952315582604378, "strength": 0.017872572077495142, "strength_record": 0.02669148420986825, "adv_record": 0.03433291655562293, "adv_strength": 0.01586467044068878, "adv_strength_record": 0.0277691019787665, "adv_full": 0.08408793869701718, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026267337685835127, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08306834811604931, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.037202192599555414, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.09052222044213232, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.05655000123958879, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0616839723191824, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04091616142851492, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.08523392782117177, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.038339962310178916, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06439541962037708, "adv_selected": 0.05655000123958879 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007576464370369422, "strength": 0.016684274763991695, "strength_record": 0.009450048955354303, "adv_record": 0.004380794874556388, "adv_strength": 0.014714773142788021, "adv_strength_record": 0.0049000879399669186, "adv_full": 0.004293815856212881, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004852899367677374, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004213561815917901, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013686766413507287, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004061499649292024, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003291330962188154, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0054595338559198245, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0011102852206451718, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0086141734686629, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0031779499337869824, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004298492422797559, "adv_selected": 0.003291330962188154 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008512388318070533, "strength": 0.009570680850110508, "strength_record": 0.0076819837894836936, "adv_record": 0.005065268896024335, "adv_strength": 0.008012889098787087, "adv_strength_record": 0.004753125305784103, "adv_full": 0.003149155334854758, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009067740970986053, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004004955338781041, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00890932288600601, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004006047584600017, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0024810888037061097, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0063106637315435725, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0019492401141895347, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00647512439385745, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015037865253543193, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002071297754408416, "adv_selected": 0.0024810888037061097 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06165861112891609, "strength": 0.06545840801326583, "strength_record": 0.06694162630256904, "adv_record": 0.059764801969978285, "adv_strength": 0.06561426972110536, "adv_strength_record": 0.06278075870827964, "adv_full": 0.026252004150251414, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06345145135340963, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02770908732470217, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.025460041116486927, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05226495011741341, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.07013652237096617, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01848574662462989, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015224805200749389, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04191451908977872, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07376861308133488, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.018722720219629386, "adv_selected": 0.07013652237096617 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03952315582604378, "strength": 0.02803812872663572, "strength_record": 0.03343268995724883, "adv_record": 0.03433291655562293, "adv_strength": 0.0259599759341452, "adv_strength_record": 0.031394423339662525, "adv_full": 0.00963316146005078, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03141598656873001, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010217911723974125, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009274549487127798, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02051337381451807, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0060925428477810566, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01443473836012993, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03318474191083896, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005134876966784549, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.026808861839853922, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008198290922779704, "adv_selected": 0.0060925428477810566 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06165861112891609, "strength": 0.008771364094221313, "strength_record": 0.02450013588770629, "adv_record": 0.059764801969978285, "adv_strength": 0.007283950420624123, "adv_strength_record": 0.03630459539758718, "adv_full": 0.010873507084160332, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04502926628167211, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011837395814357495, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.033333358263137165, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010157347536606942, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.020345325677141642, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011941292449547558, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011991001395319863, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01564088909329048, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.014611728343210523, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012474904772037491, "adv_selected": 0.020345325677141642 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030653825939657306, "strength": 0.035606409729586334, "strength_record": 0.032284489416127694, "adv_record": 0.02501197365995879, "adv_strength": 0.03371325691066565, "adv_strength_record": 0.025732606435725548, "adv_full": 0.15317112555991, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017670890625189988, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.13383611577005441, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05366503695419205, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.12197804675911854, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.141753998567247, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04527055277489938, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.031235806240912118, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1003802313022254, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0069419415703815875, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.20933547645282097, "adv_selected": 0.141753998567247 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0010061498351923678, "strength": 0.0014276548170534219, "strength_record": 0.0008102363117353613, "adv_record": 0.0003537475249074263, "adv_strength": 0.001000225323567805, "adv_strength_record": 0.0003079218556517646, "adv_full": 0.00015021264229383313, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00032970507483606206, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00015033057351863154, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0014033245975550465, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00017566588998103736, "adv_add_player_availability": 5.513217450646492e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00027490035118258487, "adv_add_four_factors": 4.055185349963686e-05, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000301243718027404, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00026130000765701804, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0001614525512785518, "adv_selected": 5.513217450646492e-05 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.2494662735587647, "strength": 0.18954747201207756, "strength_record": 0.2663998109817811, "adv_record": 0.3412247538335434, "adv_strength": 0.2098875255798404, "adv_strength_record": 0.3582790215447911, "adv_full": 0.26383280733020525, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.27705395319699516, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.24712375777326198, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.125674709521265, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.3329117308278612, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.36444782016772287, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.2509566386383725, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.5628754000597854, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.2596309666807305, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.42321369628414457, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.24224241756385667, "adv_selected": 0.36444782016772287 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0009309780305537407, "strength": 0.004136736465566294, "strength_record": 0.0013157551877343628, "adv_record": 0.0003211148217738581, "adv_strength": 0.0032018034486273926, "adv_strength_record": 0.00037958892861670023, "adv_full": 0.000980173101327085, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004121640568124693, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001077387319821285, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0013193958696191088, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0014478352213580165, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001427592378617668, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0019034674059834242, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00045464028525963815, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0010298118424213237, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.000905790605666679, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.000803683969556337, "adv_selected": 0.0001427592378617668 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0058762417927740495, "strength": 0.020473225652069767, "strength_record": 0.008970263652320357, "adv_record": 0.0031914657129279446, "adv_strength": 0.01840579613524352, "adv_strength_record": 0.003979008151819499, "adv_full": 0.016461576606798492, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004496431929876091, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017169567250341373, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01188489717589172, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01914226770318332, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004191506367987626, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.017136642522108565, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008596132556094295, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011932042256288067, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006761157769656409, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014285787201464216, "adv_selected": 0.004191506367987626 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030653825939657306, "strength": 0.04214585903654252, "strength_record": 0.03512480161251581, "adv_record": 0.02501197365995879, "adv_strength": 0.040540019331518344, "adv_strength_record": 0.02694251137222478, "adv_full": 0.03500969222130701, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023959072380411728, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.032750295658091726, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06738634843724833, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022361429518265075, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008532146632072992, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0841905255619269, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02053989397114067, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.041299151717034646, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.046541776595269056, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.029096286810014506, "adv_selected": 0.008532146632072992 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020937956617660805, "strength": 0.009316109997934315, "strength_record": 0.013097252584025817, "adv_record": 0.015552630697801788, "adv_strength": 0.007780089923054787, "adv_strength_record": 0.012018099694404216, "adv_full": 0.01466470972071143, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014349396247645052, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015681065761610984, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0135652476625949, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01683520090235633, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009514502693320827, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019706658317179295, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007026138575634824, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01875306766430326, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03355982067601288, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009448751368111729, "adv_selected": 0.009514502693320827 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030653825939657306, "strength": 0.010002499458724357, "strength_record": 0.01710938644116213, "adv_record": 0.02501197365995879, "adv_strength": 0.00840909767465186, "adv_strength_record": 0.018206305040054317, "adv_full": 0.005617706493825794, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.035071562719135724, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007160978589318629, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.022586456552385246, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005229294872337504, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003266493547092589, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014565907365930393, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013097235098283718, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005669203593580598, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.022205920767162265, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004776802941971931, "adv_selected": 0.003266493547092589 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06165861112891609, "strength": 0.11157727045631027, "strength_record": 0.08740218012509328, "adv_record": 0.059764801969978285, "adv_strength": 0.11756964520604551, "adv_strength_record": 0.07260063356198396, "adv_full": 0.030319486367192033, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07573645537348443, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03110502185741829, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04714009936356173, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03228978099613283, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04478395336692129, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03487876167800702, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.027675824828234594, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.036766252347445884, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.033766882256500874, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.027357219467661096, "adv_selected": 0.04478395336692129 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011092181739044327, "strength": 0.01641881988497248, "strength_record": 0.011818577874547261, "adv_record": 0.007045259939694563, "adv_strength": 0.014458924101834924, "adv_strength_record": 0.007249009412663646, "adv_full": 0.029943222558065422, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008381272615638816, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.030743667816717408, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02507091119268911, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.027187487312948337, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.025373925138752914, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.017252559814199674, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004042158339213009, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.044552955179310946, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00845457652627095, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.027495199810286444, "adv_selected": 0.025373925138752914 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00475474486369547, "strength": 0.004088216599432447, "strength_record": 0.00352386343826313, "adv_record": 0.0024510635424131347, "adv_strength": 0.0031607557282613066, "adv_strength_record": 0.0020586330475599506, "adv_full": 0.0042341507652548654, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002455815562103337, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004533776884094072, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0039421363406671244, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005384496330275219, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023261166226308336, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0026192251347482254, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0008460451650800312, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004507643682885947, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0020442587305934635, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0046287282808870674, "adv_selected": 0.0023261166226308336 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008736705580679036, "strength": 0.0014191638226549788, "strength_record": 0.000741398157969133, "adv_record": 0.0002966672924595025, "adv_strength": 0.000993721270836717, "adv_strength_record": 0.0002654855581625477, "adv_full": 0.0015657387245154438, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00044920442333033295, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001823071702558563, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0018824350934675646, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0017787294869009108, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00039505258148796234, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0011365250164836757, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00024242319134948256, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014884188318417823, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003643381837615496, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0013125951061363265, "adv_selected": 0.00039505258148796234 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03952315582604378, "strength": 0.029386766333351397, "strength_record": 0.034227450069709155, "adv_record": 0.03433291655562293, "adv_strength": 0.027328604444386326, "adv_strength_record": 0.03179891269112799, "adv_full": 0.014476399133942013, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04878937018850774, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01670604249565695, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03942648500517688, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013232371530239793, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012143606707289797, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.029007370469409058, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.021268860137337798, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.016546947060859626, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.026533009747940633, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012806390656825635, "adv_selected": 0.012143606707289797 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00475474486369547, "strength": 0.003566403245839002, "strength_record": 0.0032912585717371373, "adv_record": 0.0024510635424131347, "adv_strength": 0.002722291702808183, "adv_strength_record": 0.0019834384967539467, "adv_full": 0.0006108064900230399, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002114566743394236, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006303800254594088, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0018199341873394097, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012781963871391995, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00042473091663527024, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008871866053572866, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0007509717024816456, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0007266134499379353, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012526483284048193, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0006701781841307646, "adv_selected": 0.00042473091663527024 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003113023066111373, "strength": 0.0035210750550052974, "strength_record": 0.002528075535488327, "adv_record": 0.001445717189142669, "adv_strength": 0.0026844748717704267, "adv_strength_record": 0.0012729870875824586, "adv_full": 0.0006838197875235457, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001609778088499052, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007215781464139655, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001544647181025301, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00124399897135761, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0002506615603312518, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0013159441078194395, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0010023782243031283, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000762115618756243, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012556566353381308, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0006313605113637143, "adv_selected": 0.0002506615603312518 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0488454431741712, "strength": 0.04871438375512925, "strength_record": 0.05012379661167315, "adv_record": 0.044703992416373683, "adv_strength": 0.04749807978743082, "adv_strength_record": 0.045474508830140876, "adv_full": 0.062364670950152475, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06811685705270945, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0739141137621016, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07564412557392242, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.048531798129866535, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.039820872467928904, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08719413344417876, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06066909440222345, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0474304868024231, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.035135163590510644, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.052117565195430475, "adv_selected": 0.039820872467928904 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0488454431741712, "strength": 0.01516162835137519, "strength_record": 0.0279603511920455, "adv_record": 0.044703992416373683, "adv_strength": 0.013252582405127857, "adv_strength_record": 0.033085261361084486, "adv_full": 0.029983817666735017, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.043801443414689764, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.033015971325205395, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05684998916135965, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.020641174428213723, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.016146300337098067, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06494336818653784, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03034529355637947, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.032556385353372394, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.059995510738148586, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02303158969424033, "adv_selected": 0.016146300337098067 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011092181739044327, "strength": 0.028932505140081072, "strength_record": 0.015689511823496614, "adv_record": 0.007045259939694563, "adv_strength": 0.026866938934142767, "adv_strength_record": 0.008459130588982391, "adv_full": 0.016041398297760884, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011569493896021967, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017331351511510447, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.022289923798404387, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01727957801955128, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00828466899973156, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019769579922206383, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013283821370684777, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01766675539944776, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.011832203863793776, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014828408191611256, "adv_selected": 0.00828466899973156 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011092181739044327, "strength": 0.022063316478265173, "strength_record": 0.013700651102560675, "adv_record": 0.007045259939694563, "adv_strength": 0.01997472397862351, "adv_strength_record": 0.00785684711206564, "adv_full": 0.00618860358532831, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009030700429764836, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006649851981263612, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010853709792003254, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00886868493319355, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004208662169539442, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009812592339983975, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0045525684505809605, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00960204842002357, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.013891445220547721, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005066667659412824, "adv_selected": 0.004208662169539442 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003766669663734966, "strength": 0.01531630842142414, "strength_record": 0.0059209883049681404, "adv_record": 0.001833392271041547, "adv_strength": 0.013400516338244168, "adv_strength_record": 0.002316306539620341, "adv_full": 0.005445891242844373, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002088116009537354, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005557764256430265, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008093552030867073, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005844366447051138, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008362252403718738, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011543985647214736, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0032744234731687943, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004902237810194191, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004160601356410778, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004235273998952942, "adv_selected": 0.0008362252403718738 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020937956617660805, "strength": 0.03224535410243213, "strength_record": 0.024369411381838665, "adv_record": 0.015552630697801788, "adv_strength": 0.030248768330847848, "adv_strength_record": 0.016856863748662874, "adv_full": 0.0036907833402769663, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017627768081782767, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003970318031598219, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01769857054758086, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0035663104539284335, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0026109145189615822, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007456042003170338, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003385621374319223, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0047677942955894745, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009351559949692704, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0033247776158411625, "adv_selected": 0.0026109145189615822 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07460517160170972, "strength": 0.15892595903790827, "strength_record": 0.11712588859415951, "adv_record": 0.07579098238229065, "adv_strength": 0.17310049008311712, "adv_strength_record": 0.09745139902610585, "adv_full": 0.14308599482557874, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09483243847673282, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15057353767175616, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.22656351855608142, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.08236600242798701, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.12888297328152953, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.1322409821793968, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05572420245327651, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.14635285537542378, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0421188258608086, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1835567256348312, "adv_selected": 0.12888297328152953 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06165861112891609, "strength": 0.04009750249299445, "strength_record": 0.0523905588913821, "adv_record": 0.059764801969978285, "adv_strength": 0.03839019772862137, "adv_strength_record": 0.05493199936645883, "adv_full": 0.010857590896583722, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05527016296147131, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01177896631100943, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.022185242194107863, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.017823411495088537, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017796471353185506, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01670384385403193, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.022054694862891595, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01422588390436005, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0334631504952859, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009789784956452661, "adv_selected": 0.017796471353185506 } } ] }, { "season": 2023, "champion": "DEN", "cutoffDate": "2022-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.8737436028479688 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1083759638172497, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3930649583406376 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.404280946655177, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.35082337282068393, "record": 1.5543780446578004 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1359486335662425, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.13648637654201415, "record": 0.43223579226132564, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.059847512678450954, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17167310449799733, "prior_net_rating": 0.3718357574842104, "retained_minutes_share": 0.11342339524045832, "rotation_box_production": 0.3041229755622604, "star_box_production": 0.44294100295765687, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.07178100247265241, "efg_pct": 0.3475294424676268, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15454974687415518, "turnover_rate": 0.15948888568956698, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.052214842501240026, "oreb_pct": 0.09970723742029292, "dreb_pct": 0.05420133509704528, "ft_rate": -0.1459445838183312, "opp_ft_rate": -0.134131407199227, "pace": 0.08778283887880961, "three_attempt_rate": -0.049886755370137495, "three_pct": 0.1864201934159109, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.040494462031700686, "opp_three_pct": -0.010634244252940472 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0487980491864635, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2450249846992594, "record": 1.5909559299003162, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.6465662755163019, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.7449009878839192 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.204729765456557, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1619840788920896, "record": 0.448920803312907, "prior_net_rating": 0.3631329963517439, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10855127857435493, "rotation_box_production": 0.2902624962497846, "star_box_production": 0.4366717935200576, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.071573813357851, "efg_pct": 0.3172644738178628, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2127543280279204, "turnover_rate": 0.19087539081901558, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10108473977676798, "oreb_pct": 0.08988702341549724, "dreb_pct": 0.09016260915103612, "ft_rate": -0.15263092719926757, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15063367191782906, "pace": 0.09844842267990703, "three_attempt_rate": -0.05642711391008607, "three_pct": 0.17547919963234548, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.024130958480895533, "opp_three_pct": -0.03354902445599056 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0591318122331335, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4190089123021969, "record": 0.6050183802896074, "prior_net_rating": 0.5498293620989975, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1538244235321111 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3171885957051064, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15087235525211962, "record": 0.46067435685928193, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03937966054681888, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.15221233113055782, "rotation_box_production": 0.3747580944819981, "star_box_production": 0.494019820956781, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0705961276562149, "efg_pct": 0.34350127368528716, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14365945641164907, "turnover_rate": 0.1411442075893714, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.041044103587673825, "oreb_pct": 0.07746908412896372, "dreb_pct": 0.06712723510018373, "ft_rate": -0.15072580799402124, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16561753932770515, "pace": 0.10295570814336677, "three_attempt_rate": -0.025838035263657237, "three_pct": 0.18792781651266433, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.0035373755153254647, "opp_three_pct": -0.0020546997963043867 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.04706410632587, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.24650197281338765, "record": 1.2523535555697864, "rotation_box_production": 0.49660383596074037, "star_box_production": 0.7129875973274136, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11689644378316408 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.8414692952259286, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16712021944811384, "record": 0.4634576315380922, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.0168392419397705, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.14551650593496093, "prior_net_rating": 0.5398576635597786, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1371183566709689, "efg_pct": 0.47493449668572335, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1489241579013738, "turnover_rate": 0.1333758251280198, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0411969991947532, "oreb_pct": 0.0496601808366576, "dreb_pct": 0.0601604663357241, "ft_rate": -0.12464558191561757, "opp_ft_rate": -0.11357981974984019, "pace": 0.14370926488393707, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07642846749163228, "three_pct": 0.18175502534359042, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.06373643127236435, "opp_three_pct": -0.02396582167043503 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.23352862685585, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.06894767559034823, "record": 1.126691461176543, "efg_pct": 0.9978048702106458, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2156948576317151, "turnover_rate": 0.12151093203430338, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.06707310348844442, "oreb_pct": 0.13819918743367485, "dreb_pct": 0.21950148419699594, "ft_rate": -0.2637090836775511, "opp_ft_rate": -0.2598027195053264 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1814952627329727, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2013784798759031, "record": 0.4831306632352928, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03925603801062845, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2324978529489468, "prior_net_rating": 0.36204905253594727, "retained_minutes_share": 0.11393770102098968, "rotation_box_production": 0.3263337794068464, "star_box_production": 0.4598301300783192, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.09638195131120561, "pace": 0.14318826651672606, "three_attempt_rate": 0.003908904428862256, "three_pct": 0.2744819428215413, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.03364423135683247, "opp_three_pct": -0.031029743135594368 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.033243310167172, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.29629479888033, "record": 1.3142084037331032, "pace": 0.40798758802005547, "three_attempt_rate": -0.03158223308121848, "three_pct": 0.39795130022206066, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.03500767421666451, "opp_three_pct": 0.09053509476749844 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2200224682196104, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16007637028818933, "record": 0.44901224878087437, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03608051118788559, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17310396064350136, "prior_net_rating": 0.35686817786486796, "retained_minutes_share": 0.12465173734306854, "rotation_box_production": 0.3225436800824313, "star_box_production": 0.4354216832184842, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.07385081146661558, "efg_pct": 0.3956357350082534, "opp_efg_pct": -0.159049014100095, "turnover_rate": 0.16778790915960815, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.07176397622655126, "oreb_pct": 0.09857772686737065, "dreb_pct": 0.04794907293613608, "ft_rate": -0.1464342049728381, "opp_ft_rate": -0.13430878950660252 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0040189349320725, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.8414692952259286, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666656, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.6468708973423176, "brier": 0.9829657252154588, "championProbability": 0.070872634203062, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 3.6835099883682605, "brier": 1.0299911143124805, "championProbability": 0.025134597679071696, "topPick": "CLE", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.0418515531957846, "brier": 0.999032971181409, "championProbability": 0.0477464025960645, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.71564186184643, "brier": 1.065191203296624, "championProbability": 0.06616247220855366, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 3.7916996408799086, "brier": 1.0460682658994105, "championProbability": 0.022557230060878522, "topPick": "CLE", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.8925085191690716, "brier": 1.0491374641984197, "championProbability": 0.05543697333201912, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 0.9712442062945347, "brier": 0.4519716893510356, "championProbability": 0.3786116738992021, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.573837137457995, "brier": 0.9726077185862774, "championProbability": 0.07624243073601399, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 0.8679921746930199, "brier": 0.3855480250325709, "championProbability": 0.4197935758088601, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 3.266275074772969, "brier": 1.0094566640164775, "championProbability": 0.038148262172744855, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 0.7164831659360099, "brier": 0.3059451195910376, "championProbability": 0.4884670965118432, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 0.862887630741373, "brier": 0.44831160403809206, "championProbability": 0.4219419090330668, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.0388404423827655, "brier": 0.8264761548302162, "championProbability": 0.13017957411098552, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.2479254430753959, "brier": 0.5796877269150384, "championProbability": 0.2870997843247395, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.3200569747995856, "brier": 0.6132142689926035, "championProbability": 0.26712008241912805, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.8842908155274096, "brier": 0.8108347108324097, "championProbability": 0.15193677243054546, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.2535354094636995, "brier": 0.6038798829221599, "championProbability": 0.28549367351068383, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 0.862887630741373, "brier": 0.44831160403809206, "championProbability": 0.4219419090330668, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03503536496579585, "strength": 0.02436399496906183, "strength_record": 0.030550931568467596, "adv_record": 0.02680811858326753, "adv_strength": 0.02178367988363604, "adv_strength_record": 0.025972275794543954, "adv_full": 0.021278225586978842, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03182085652880793, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021856039344919514, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0279935305499335, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02303905142981311, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.038752056851998465, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.017051173066302994, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007878081670126285, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04067486852904708, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.034128576517511326, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.021989309340271636, "adv_selected": 0.038752056851998465 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006383729615358541, "strength": 0.026096719330942583, "strength_record": 0.01115158801088704, "adv_record": 0.0030206354382043337, "adv_strength": 0.02352704609714041, "adv_strength_record": 0.004328830031461507, "adv_full": 0.006274655312330064, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0044851570164233705, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005811796554530298, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013088344225703723, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005546460343875614, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023910827928757218, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010635002818592778, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0034106740627014884, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007907107111407272, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0042119067845906785, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007546574580882638, "adv_selected": 0.0023910827928757218 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.070872634203062, "strength": 0.058229260747139314, "strength_record": 0.07236498094655291, "adv_record": 0.06616247220855366, "adv_strength": 0.05783125894300683, "adv_strength_record": 0.07026988971053479, "adv_full": 0.04238490168733845, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09365034565911429, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.047377368638244065, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.12148567059043457, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.028175714808071208, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03766078247761936, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.10197059644560508, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09051083396648914, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06122412267316171, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06970451705026451, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.05367523346811293, "adv_selected": 0.03766078247761936 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001754389209370858, "strength": 0.004013647570838932, "strength_record": 0.0020030268166905804, "adv_record": 0.0005764988349970664, "adv_strength": 0.002887072695722974, "adv_strength_record": 0.0006459814703079108, "adv_full": 0.0009757337044490643, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006697466439987701, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008869881638802345, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004929863061880245, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000595157229205656, "adv_add_player_availability": 9.588358935749074e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0029355223137766543, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00029209586072653744, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015377257326915274, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008105690370956401, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010027429326404773, "adv_selected": 9.588358935749074e-05 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009038556769117592, "strength": 0.030379968494666808, "strength_record": 0.014873550612779491, "adv_record": 0.00471797866932871, "adv_strength": 0.027895191966084112, "adv_strength_record": 0.006541042185699533, "adv_full": 0.010886373975771281, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006234484843493061, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010003392920807042, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018306139935820708, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008749338756854016, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0028557556883991968, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.017505134252957882, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004136937567716259, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.015549915779558948, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.011554062024343238, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011072092548612843, "adv_selected": 0.0028557556883991968 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.070872634203062, "strength": 0.16458860857901664, "strength_record": 0.12102457009611779, "adv_record": 0.06616247220855366, "adv_strength": 0.18528840082093628, "adv_strength_record": 0.09421475289127787, "adv_full": 0.05832756347487088, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08541215343744989, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.053798136408630105, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.08560847572715166, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05035373212947129, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03506389534258068, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.10568800962036742, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09552014642845977, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06597482629104089, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09616913262751763, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06214000716133083, "adv_selected": 0.03506389534258068 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026431260456963965, "strength": 0.053502683280625844, "strength_record": 0.03795068238264118, "adv_record": 0.018677905785663945, "adv_strength": 0.052597191567222326, "adv_strength_record": 0.024028759022946537, "adv_full": 0.01228413796390314, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.024124003783177937, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011486219309556794, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0489201391922949, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008869376824069903, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015439928104953654, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01678634127085266, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007812654959555215, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.024928333005208126, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008171957502833392, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02110677581258843, "adv_selected": 0.015439928104953654 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.070872634203062, "strength": 0.025134597679071696, "strength_record": 0.0477464025960645, "adv_record": 0.06616247220855366, "adv_strength": 0.022557230060878522, "adv_strength_record": 0.05543697333201912, "adv_full": 0.3786116738992021, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07624243073601399, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.4197935758088601, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.038148262172744855, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.4884670965118432, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.4219419090330668, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.13017957411098552, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.2870997843247395, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.26712008241912805, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.15193677243054546, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.28549367351068383, "adv_selected": 0.4219419090330668 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001754389209370858, "strength": 0.0013568780461220705, "strength_record": 0.0011710397154191512, "adv_record": 0.0005764988349970664, "adv_strength": 0.0008563500817274446, "adv_strength_record": 0.0004756632692597675, "adv_full": 0.00012024651042632549, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007586723734161189, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00014066879759157874, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0010852972659157528, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00017522550784153257, "adv_add_player_availability": 6.79556350708837e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00031077985613440026, "adv_add_four_factors": 9.156393077133124e-05, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0003233991375204185, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0007106228848408655, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00012220165243600437, "adv_selected": 6.79556350708837e-05 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004232440473845753, "strength": 0.006179708018383346, "strength_record": 0.004250901813169413, "adv_record": 0.001783323653011515, "adv_strength": 0.004682659194542333, "adv_strength_record": 0.00186189691746341, "adv_full": 0.00969185525106546, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002719147439729383, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010731941272229808, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01410519043658199, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005511125749037172, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014564036232233284, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021154279475919816, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0044353015374817405, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010985599774567294, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005683992846756709, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009740588627306757, "adv_selected": 0.0014564036232233284 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.000919711631914925, "strength": 0.0043594395094945955, "strength_record": 0.0014054965375531804, "adv_record": 0.00025185379213898116, "adv_strength": 0.0031672188090669717, "adv_strength_record": 0.00033265853823065286, "adv_full": 0.0004020809227594999, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00046250190757667645, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004550098528500576, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0013725435842559522, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0005049351399538693, "adv_add_player_availability": 6.567840286265894e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008804810271889309, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00020319491226359194, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006098838895190308, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008777876640547035, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00038748974019935887, "adv_selected": 6.567840286265894e-05 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008561754837774684, "strength": 0.010513815843761733, "strength_record": 0.008510047811899318, "adv_record": 0.004401245140152222, "adv_strength": 0.00849417576695798, "adv_strength_record": 0.004576785997086953, "adv_full": 0.0022740294659711626, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006416060687293885, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002512681619493474, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005941523971164432, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0033149927229924915, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011776755240574348, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005345253255371481, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004127262492443976, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003365605655074316, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01676287744848011, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002160109828143981, "adv_selected": 0.0011776755240574348 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.023228599209533334, "strength": 0.007973263068758221, "strength_record": 0.013668170520127004, "adv_record": 0.01582698506334765, "adv_strength": 0.006230294403453464, "adv_strength_record": 0.012239034827895066, "adv_full": 0.01164267977026413, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012113497341488783, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01016991051087714, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.016673589542120025, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009631169202262577, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0025551502434314447, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.027619100237464857, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03291918403986283, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007981746725579957, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008201709037034474, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01458509043979741, "adv_selected": 0.0025551502434314447 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0010343011336665015, "strength": 0.0025148830580347353, "strength_record": 0.0011502347549621193, "adv_record": 0.0002927786422891442, "adv_strength": 0.0017098164952060763, "adv_strength_record": 0.00032271607284006044, "adv_full": 0.0011853212974650877, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003310081408266434, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0010877718024386383, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0016220415599133373, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0016398712055333865, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004007358722983637, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0010149681259252487, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00020441281913647472, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0019432771940247591, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00047881802795519046, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0013578420695025662, "adv_selected": 0.0004007358722983637 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04430954484848281, "strength": 0.027130419369336137, "strength_record": 0.03720057738995938, "adv_record": 0.03622831474183566, "adv_strength": 0.024573826499733453, "adv_strength_record": 0.03437023402165313, "adv_full": 0.05084290004193675, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04380963042369901, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.051718137996170595, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06443355072984042, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03012738585323815, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02482249845357378, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0709837383598273, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02786377693763701, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.057523053387766136, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.050612831795308504, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.046888754982903735, "adv_selected": 0.02482249845357378 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004232440473845753, "strength": 0.012161800385910505, "strength_record": 0.0059430273527327085, "adv_record": 0.001783323653011515, "adv_strength": 0.009999676180689535, "adv_strength_record": 0.002253895637026843, "adv_full": 0.004792982937985353, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002364389306682457, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004199743214609847, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019517549678657167, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002236558630329525, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008071759478962745, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011378580841008706, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0014389950476726735, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007807493315751398, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002085842283110349, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005571209988269436, "adv_selected": 0.0008071759478962745 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.2900163170330862, "strength": 0.07738771887806956, "strength_record": 0.19729424625681885, "adv_record": 0.4029976391334801, "adv_strength": 0.07954129932520121, "adv_strength_record": 0.34086075261605636, "adv_full": 0.23111967276521858, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.26939542760408053, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.19134528605179313, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.1510923668001517, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1916103419949482, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.32842266278045057, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.14579152777648102, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.19414030995048792, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.23647768427048876, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.22117610087755138, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.2794024261560375, "adv_selected": 0.32842266278045057 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006383729615358541, "strength": 0.00662879882812568, "strength_record": 0.0056594428285265605, "adv_record": 0.0030206354382043337, "adv_strength": 0.005065637394081809, "adv_strength_record": 0.0029404444138941403, "adv_full": 0.02331004421407093, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0034138584136681823, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022308798954208616, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012199292261421971, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01817353727783298, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006201133398091691, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01870790097076641, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006374279659816648, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.019603405540226024, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005362188559392803, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.026295873109849252, "adv_selected": 0.006201133398091691 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.017319474746339863, "strength": 0.058966835104153965, "strength_record": 0.030745969298162697, "adv_record": 0.010862278841533695, "adv_strength": 0.05865276876405383, "adv_strength_record": 0.015753094234254476, "adv_full": 0.02154205920114154, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017691104986169638, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023759666312635867, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02319482082081423, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.023157477975782978, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010508461820442272, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.028459021622422902, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016506507170384124, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02220421596349535, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02080291965914325, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019854786537136383, "adv_selected": 0.010508461820442272 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008561754837774684, "strength": 0.010080290599582648, "strength_record": 0.008334526061506411, "adv_record": 0.004401245140152222, "adv_strength": 0.008102672108325493, "adv_strength_record": 0.004522720442525713, "adv_full": 0.00496467000118562, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005092914604671651, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004633887216175019, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010483908950589139, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004175752261823954, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0012893783533529917, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009848069802553044, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0035606649801524096, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005486130450386724, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005267142575153697, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005088768419926712, "adv_selected": 0.0012893783533529917 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004232440473845753, "strength": 0.00830439981194861, "strength_record": 0.004920413438523998, "adv_record": 0.001783323653011515, "adv_strength": 0.006520969904372842, "adv_strength_record": 0.002023832388629874, "adv_full": 0.0009060241442159886, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002156150708656101, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008953287453364436, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0033232629985843996, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001255345474356215, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004918437863450888, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0014654524131071445, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0007641143698014337, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015184374947551523, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001967017066933531, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0011767583297278114, "adv_selected": 0.0004918437863450888 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001754389209370858, "strength": 0.006163278082438577, "strength_record": 0.002476738555834716, "adv_record": 0.0005764988349970664, "adv_strength": 0.0046687101020128595, "adv_strength_record": 0.0007291015522453168, "adv_full": 0.001230424485108583, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000850878143040435, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0011997507749618391, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0018407223837751123, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0017703275632053336, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00026521804580929956, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002289899806125018, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0015699607346156155, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001172354191589582, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008861839517210307, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0013621390362383396, "adv_selected": 0.00026521804580929956 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008561754837774684, "strength": 0.028386483698729325, "strength_record": 0.01391311035409037, "adv_record": 0.004401245140152222, "adv_strength": 0.02585226000088604, "adv_strength_record": 0.006057483213344861, "adv_full": 0.014685774365595039, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006883486821472117, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014673296167141216, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01883221227824506, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01323484707782609, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00861059314454779, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01534258359717658, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005972739911692051, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.024377968112115702, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005019304338393122, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.015341614050786236, "adv_selected": 0.00861059314454779 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.070872634203062, "strength": 0.13608517973171433, "strength_record": 0.11015320070519463, "adv_record": 0.06616247220855366, "adv_strength": 0.14972629960898223, "adv_strength_record": 0.08929178222771218, "adv_full": 0.04000978069338979, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08012352659128215, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03613346677999268, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.14451874996138642, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.021403433377380085, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02717714856878929, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08754566383663236, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.025399067870553488, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06041400073009372, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06187679289139856, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.050708386695869974, "adv_selected": 0.02717714856878929 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.070872634203062, "strength": 0.028917164568024768, "strength_record": 0.05117694560295994, "adv_record": 0.06616247220855366, "adv_strength": 0.026394463386850985, "adv_strength_record": 0.05767419175279651, "adv_full": 0.010805474070875676, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06031108063225435, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010645677279022665, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010532541587877283, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022409875410489107, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01348674516643415, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01434207365033067, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04973759570588335, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009521449148800569, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05038237040638895, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011323103603030866, "adv_selected": 0.01348674516643415 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005610216619772385, "strength": 0.011122675299163607, "strength_record": 0.00675614456348927, "adv_record": 0.002559577744469231, "adv_strength": 0.00904729937390585, "adv_strength_record": 0.002966036513340063, "adv_full": 0.0021225985932788356, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004311559800815399, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002410761102192575, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0037995603525842144, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0047140834950393975, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002029517373563062, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003183752788694644, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006027030228206619, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0035196777127269293, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006767984879108192, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002485986610784059, "adv_selected": 0.002029517373563062 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006383729615358541, "strength": 0.0021934198068296585, "strength_record": 0.0032737714476464195, "adv_record": 0.0030206354382043337, "adv_strength": 0.0014668631786946388, "adv_strength_record": 0.002152106902121626, "adv_full": 0.0044866089443515375, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032333459434880822, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005265992744273615, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005374062545880266, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004772271627804343, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007836952907186978, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009173506110067672, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00871093822332229, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0034530510769115266, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008732555790103578, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0040569142792791545, "adv_selected": 0.0007836952907186978 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.023228599209533334, "strength": 0.07710655069664674, "strength_record": 0.042019401660730066, "adv_record": 0.01582698506334765, "adv_strength": 0.0792175217834181, "adv_strength_record": 0.023219477145200493, "adv_full": 0.006310097775712808, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02454198932618389, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006130336344615681, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04711868888219361, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004116307692296662, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003022378295758504, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02051019781138859, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005784007737352763, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011783348209623115, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.017377465463685945, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0070782208818534606, "adv_selected": 0.003022378295758504 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09810618511365903, "strength": 0.08336111212973586, "strength_record": 0.10545360150312548, "adv_record": 0.10039086855728169, "adv_strength": 0.08645276053274731, "adv_strength_record": 0.10989101606073058, "adv_full": 0.024279708961865654, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.1254965261701963, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026414644548519182, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07849750844136617, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0193310211992038, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010375580369973667, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.09880102145253808, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.10373045729360732, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.022612846858850084, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.13019700834508594, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.027668356355792293, "adv_selected": 0.010375580369973667 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008561754837774684, "strength": 0.006796404813672023, "strength_record": 0.006857258797367122, "adv_record": 0.004401245140152222, "adv_strength": 0.0052093850704620715, "adv_strength_record": 0.004046570816900573, "adv_full": 0.0022516999812717347, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004884063984828875, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002153724763442066, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005960589510717162, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0029381855276179774, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0017810760224575384, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0031007932834341088, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0037774256063403196, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0023983896188898113, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0020829892336973414, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0033169692500050504, "adv_selected": 0.0017810760224575384 } } ] }, { "season": 2024, "champion": "BOS", "cutoffDate": "2023-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.8347231679183558 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1589814553196813, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3318131515512581 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.5198991711739045, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.23886597589429256, "record": 1.6239638121071829 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1989952906998114, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.12367996000458836, "record": 0.4401804397339923, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.061028265334759295, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.14107247689134644, "prior_net_rating": 0.36446968240873096, "retained_minutes_share": 0.0684095620757515, "rotation_box_production": 0.3221404501319702, "star_box_production": 0.4824648993103623, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08385699933249503, "efg_pct": 0.36578169086519674, "opp_efg_pct": -0.11023049454214619, "turnover_rate": 0.19297093522232295, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0697681428950714, "oreb_pct": 0.109616934036352, "dreb_pct": 0.08707614106868652, "ft_rate": -0.1631142205806642, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1494021337460876, "pace": 0.10048243438047769, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07875799192749695, "three_pct": 0.2261447086955231, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.04079291090281278, "opp_three_pct": -0.021492397924614173 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9590018956121362, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4635400216599865, "record": 1.7056846116454316, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.8606441927951095, "adjusted_def_rating": 1.046222818164917 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2354887131233436, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14374963472972585, "record": 0.4539568399444403, "prior_net_rating": 0.3570537572408314, "retained_minutes_share": 0.06717887211492293, "rotation_box_production": 0.3077757271748768, "star_box_production": 0.4768321474905911, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08166182222855417, "efg_pct": 0.336299433481347, "opp_efg_pct": -0.16400846562448307, "turnover_rate": 0.21950546966813606, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.11012983454467098, "oreb_pct": 0.10075719949548437, "dreb_pct": 0.11743996983051017, "ft_rate": -0.16916269766289463, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16416952459422457, "pace": 0.10914316053474134, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08322133883838384, "three_pct": 0.2132358535733406, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.02652225283001533, "opp_three_pct": -0.040222297231967255 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9598701757714574, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.38497556536940086, "record": 0.6360599025748289, "prior_net_rating": 0.54714381096547, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09913109954218727 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3962791356274287, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.13905409408058642, "record": 0.4636496980687497, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.04168700792891477, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1282434759972944, "rotation_box_production": 0.3871676732571142, "star_box_production": 0.5249237074668965, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08035350949394184, "efg_pct": 0.35996347639808507, "opp_efg_pct": -0.10743793545634629, "turnover_rate": 0.16983914634613598, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.057969133349497444, "oreb_pct": 0.08705778629676315, "dreb_pct": 0.09271630408248242, "ft_rate": -0.1661373797853133, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17375727919534553, "pace": 0.11160551162795958, "three_attempt_rate": -0.04975703364575965, "three_pct": 0.221813629619294, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.006588849120793573, "opp_three_pct": -0.014616794540430881 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9361823612933817, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.19003230265228072, "record": 1.2600305580714914, "rotation_box_production": 0.5549030625877468, "star_box_production": 0.7566097099627094, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.14748700818374427 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.759920823185549, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14835183528356147, "record": 0.4894284594602965, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.018310694616347892, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1029149493862443, "prior_net_rating": 0.5398692483959714, "retained_minutes_share": 0.08261692046240675, "efg_pct": 0.5168904710649713, "opp_efg_pct": -0.09732038272375378, "turnover_rate": 0.17489139219387007, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.05501867312706639, "oreb_pct": 0.057850814009621755, "dreb_pct": 0.11138832414842877, "ft_rate": -0.1505059160311162, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15136216248209622, "pace": 0.16968670255861762, "three_attempt_rate": -0.12368084769467257, "three_pct": 0.23394505851626127, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.07489932252370739, "opp_three_pct": -0.03668492819135911 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2173046114830934, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.1282594205327307, "record": 1.1774855369987764, "efg_pct": 1.1007179620105594, "opp_efg_pct": -0.12760487935909745, "turnover_rate": 0.16341568093477005, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1115609712253215, "oreb_pct": 0.17830702408670782, "dreb_pct": 0.28540552156607546, "ft_rate": -0.3188402677027698, "opp_ft_rate": -0.2831383471027652 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.103697777761508, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.179786339168428, "record": 0.4942927445224133, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.049314412839974474, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.19494568068602786, "prior_net_rating": 0.3493227167927246, "retained_minutes_share": 0.06150222791865107, "rotation_box_production": 0.3462620768202314, "star_box_production": 0.5153215260917822, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11034187847996327, "pace": 0.17027907823018248, "three_attempt_rate": -0.025643196197160406, "three_pct": 0.32849067198336046, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.042075508119656005, "opp_three_pct": -0.030743142206140592 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9738111155532065, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.18152381067424447, "record": 1.3748829780911975, "pace": 0.4525958920199779, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08843042885132844, "three_pct": 0.5268649499620792, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.007470311021841265, "opp_three_pct": 0.09108299025993749 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.19204483049526, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15029573596044282, "record": 0.46265669647773244, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03377981665535772, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.13807239811678942, "prior_net_rating": 0.3438757964240248, "retained_minutes_share": 0.07467112913077412, "rotation_box_production": 0.3487105987987203, "star_box_production": 0.47854627734796384, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08902483939980818, "efg_pct": 0.42396673427405707, "opp_efg_pct": -0.11027411725024255, "turnover_rate": 0.20881525814460572, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09683793912280715, "oreb_pct": 0.11237635787805639, "dreb_pct": 0.0839245029121474, "ft_rate": -0.16898055204931692, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15127430818026494 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9414786411430411, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.759920823185549, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666653, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.7406669536201687, "brier": 0.9999494675659798, "championProbability": 0.06452729582468139, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.3799768278255473, "brier": 0.6052715279154698, "championProbability": 0.2515843827494196, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.026567074734741, "brier": 0.8505401466098444, "championProbability": 0.13178716095657672, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.8379616145219506, "brier": 1.06912429810952, "championProbability": 0.058544881455832844, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.2629193926062852, "brier": 0.5601571400941688, "championProbability": 0.282827136627442, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.5119150533791914, "brier": 1.0133415969250255, "championProbability": 0.08111275515239594, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.2133615420570854, "brier": 1.0149458465316337, "championProbability": 0.10933250428466254, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.5108720869531194, "brier": 1.0168787592717732, "championProbability": 0.08119739716446184, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.288907150028363, "brier": 1.0331640190154454, "championProbability": 0.10137719139821735, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.6866795355459903, "brier": 0.7370970595918311, "championProbability": 0.18513323284882957, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.4918078622543587, "brier": 1.0736123431729796, "championProbability": 0.08276021218453411, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.2124896420896354, "brier": 1.3428538648861028, "championProbability": 0.04025626471685994, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.7979304641875675, "brier": 0.7831606089242159, "championProbability": 0.16564133442062862, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.853734517669204, "brier": 1.1692971657205828, "championProbability": 0.057628703101255806, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.076779136961198, "brier": 0.9127258158248268, "championProbability": 0.12533324400819248, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.744929537206765, "brier": 0.9953404922977722, "championProbability": 0.06425282821874857, "topPick": "PHI", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.1778495499795922, "brier": 1.0482857687310658, "championProbability": 0.11328488236640422, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 3.2124896420896354, "brier": 1.3428538648861028, "championProbability": 0.04025626471685994, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03193427738814906, "strength": 0.043246908225688094, "strength_record": 0.037315687906667665, "adv_record": 0.024162336410754326, "adv_strength": 0.04123334315287691, "adv_strength_record": 0.026236241623025437, "adv_full": 0.016380283725452055, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.025524080662902984, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01816364659850404, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03752541796145955, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016766774592545167, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01104408213321003, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.023572612550383138, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00856485946600965, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.025072534448419854, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03677856710616921, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016111181786737466, "adv_selected": 0.01104408213321003 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.018007571565476107, "strength_record": 0.01321021373646392, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.015817982776940544, "adv_strength_record": 0.007378951662564274, "adv_full": 0.004166488763462532, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007057264564855673, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004401018809161737, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01645237918372392, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0040252348751903914, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00027136547969124433, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.030270614438564172, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.025309354025915252, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0033182404525964274, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012178573950139219, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00298284485401254, "adv_selected": 0.00027136547969124433 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06452729582468139, "strength": 0.2515843827494196, "strength_record": 0.13178716095657672, "adv_record": 0.058544881455832844, "adv_strength": 0.282827136627442, "adv_strength_record": 0.08111275515239594, "adv_full": 0.10933250428466254, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08119739716446184, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10137719139821735, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.18513323284882957, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.08276021218453411, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04025626471685994, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.16564133442062862, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.057628703101255806, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.12533324400819248, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06425282821874857, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.11328488236640422, "adv_selected": 0.04025626471685994 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0022050014525780834, "strength": 0.004003682517027757, "strength_record": 0.0022257338930124267, "adv_record": 0.0008367754123038754, "adv_strength": 0.0030553770784648264, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008383849920107222, "adv_full": 0.0007314673265699041, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007062218398581704, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007628863485992132, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002171451547526617, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001075595391916917, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001824699821861058, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0015825862045571527, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000605426788091405, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0009598291435015565, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001429907286189781, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007182866041728507, "adv_selected": 0.0001824699821861058 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003208743079035464, "strength": 0.004915604933450741, "strength_record": 0.0031166913929276336, "adv_record": 0.001341515143185868, "adv_strength": 0.0038240142077505513, "adv_strength_record": 0.0013254449776203504, "adv_full": 0.0018097308078734344, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012603258290822285, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016559383004721593, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007726440845352545, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013059855279956975, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.000357001989100178, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0030587462684065064, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0003594251578347681, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003356917601504833, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010656712686581496, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0015353505603984108, "adv_selected": 0.000357001989100178 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004455487728592222, "strength": 0.009277268663285867, "strength_record": 0.005155762784165289, "adv_record": 0.0020274909050882065, "adv_strength": 0.007658947079426803, "adv_strength_record": 0.002163830116142516, "adv_full": 0.001885672201684062, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0018689560790489997, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017388126599645897, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01723957028207361, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0011125508752577492, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00020089835563046193, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0064690952166730434, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000783608732910557, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002508515606837168, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0015197748755764902, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0021815311906375687, "adv_selected": 0.00020089835563046193 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.08549446797791727, "strength": 0.031443563861818555, "strength_record": 0.060970217227048415, "adv_record": 0.08341207646250491, "adv_strength": 0.029098801674484056, "adv_strength_record": 0.07379559194726865, "adv_full": 0.0306575445698167, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07828416773795806, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03266849854822609, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03889331302301452, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04795884826544284, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.030978245990320674, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04275824936268464, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07766952236908657, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04711372511667523, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.13742031895897838, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02754924952875899, "adv_selected": 0.030978245990320674 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.25535186676588895, "strength": 0.09127238093641128, "strength_record": 0.2016271225920789, "adv_record": 0.33045073112633067, "adv_strength": 0.09332124477344995, "adv_strength_record": 0.30761001203925703, "adv_full": 0.4292605579109789, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.30033055249363494, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.43230551985033594, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.16308927712681792, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.4499639871861729, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.6150046350088352, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.20210905453101533, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.5055052648407544, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.2878213520581213, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.12365249736572193, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.4848140249039895, "adv_selected": 0.6150046350088352 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001337131520072577, "strength": 0.0065814693424508415, "strength_record": 0.002022348080787002, "adv_record": 0.00044595737646024896, "adv_strength": 0.00526166332061811, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005294956277008856, "adv_full": 0.0011368871814896545, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00043345226911041567, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001187661046634235, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001402521029285052, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0019862472654309017, "adv_add_player_availability": 5.860142801787052e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002405985420829814, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0008262516165186547, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0008375526360578467, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016024388547950107, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007774216714174144, "adv_selected": 5.860142801787052e-05 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04434221672466462, "strength": 0.06356397939463757, "strength_record": 0.05504769618473564, "adv_record": 0.03651760292630447, "adv_strength": 0.06282784142883482, "adv_strength_record": 0.0407817178807713, "adv_full": 0.02195360040192154, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03905356829874898, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021636907900150708, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0519696280970678, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02213035874158012, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01835693521207276, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.022861246986873415, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009853913272887043, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03563338100439768, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02479839466150651, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.023502804961246675, "adv_selected": 0.01835693521207276 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020939449997608477, "strength": 0.02785380786089375, "strength_record": 0.023215885841535427, "adv_record": 0.014207868344857133, "adv_strength": 0.025486049788857275, "adv_strength_record": 0.015042051920033923, "adv_full": 0.002842445870863563, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012992710956566109, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0027946707150468836, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006490927665369366, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0059534777039702376, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009565497929138376, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007992914004543375, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018662394328288617, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002769791109579788, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010811051760430193, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0024048641978323235, "adv_selected": 0.0009565497929138376 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04434221672466462, "strength": 0.019116770643083706, "strength_record": 0.03174441690449957, "adv_record": 0.03651760292630447, "adv_strength": 0.01688647880290612, "adv_strength_record": 0.03221987135006316, "adv_full": 0.014292708764458224, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.036813497637090686, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016606714349979252, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019166687354303612, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0258199293401408, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009899716557405541, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.025672299739404932, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06268810635854792, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01777178002334194, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.12189664209992855, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012261279910406011, "adv_selected": 0.009899716557405541 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006794962668102956, "strength": 0.03906131202284905, "strength_record": 0.013088935820965184, "adv_record": 0.0034480131804021565, "adv_strength": 0.03688964061271263, "adv_strength_record": 0.004589799322687795, "adv_full": 0.02221813100402841, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004180594452831424, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02138365671453376, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015601293364715614, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.023899136669469474, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0016116316253804875, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03568855328907081, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013283084489040833, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012991497812977345, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006883264752329108, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02077848250906656, "adv_selected": 0.0016116316253804875 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004455487728592222, "strength": 0.005059529395981731, "strength_record": 0.0039052788030555373, "adv_record": 0.0020274909050882065, "adv_strength": 0.00394661883207996, "adv_strength_record": 0.0019212296576891226, "adv_full": 0.004111120684209952, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017375162710803983, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003948484599121034, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006306122394077545, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005430591645071518, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0027064602012211387, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0026196972109108715, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0008792985532426152, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005649492302884662, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008665930623559606, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005401457073091441, "adv_selected": 0.0027064602012211387 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0006216320682115325, "strength": 0.003201194854779026, "strength_record": 0.0008856724287742161, "adv_record": 0.0001701292168246515, "adv_strength": 0.0023923719008916776, "adv_strength_record": 0.00019589885812071954, "adv_full": 0.001245496142295862, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0001384773152599814, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001079042080436048, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004285921577035592, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007570342168363815, "adv_add_player_availability": 3.4336437404834315e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0031740427698139567, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00018751324675558652, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013838504236033896, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003133813456824468, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001194097413316778, "adv_selected": 3.4336437404834315e-05 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.008931375047494215, "strength_record": 0.009580320788298256, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.007347226713224764, "adv_strength_record": 0.006430797481328614, "adv_full": 0.008020456687338213, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005847513133982737, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007862784479462667, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01222546063906094, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00808048520604733, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010108905916466366, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015498231591417149, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006565070105803832, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0072546009451772055, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010248190406709335, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006029470351067742, "adv_selected": 0.0010108905916466366 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03193427738814906, "strength": 0.0097077938385767, "strength_record": 0.018819782741580155, "adv_record": 0.024162336410754326, "adv_strength": 0.008048455456518621, "adv_strength_record": 0.019572374764464728, "adv_full": 0.03019918153845501, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02072635935998522, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0317630279449917, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.031919840641297624, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03157725469487004, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03713617248592016, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.023306395068294624, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009170141923550762, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06458553140519632, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.032937047188770906, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.026499519706527357, "adv_selected": 0.03713617248592016 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06452729582468139, "strength": 0.09928090559234809, "strength_record": 0.08607075736293912, "adv_record": 0.058544881455832844, "adv_strength": 0.10231141308522305, "adv_strength_record": 0.06759070547460225, "adv_full": 0.06524251115651514, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05882539000261449, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05936447559097974, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0579083798807813, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06789455577516934, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010750474240862222, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.12551649112158395, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09745069906072788, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04166673712987373, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06052120834008772, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.054882387735773655, "adv_selected": 0.010750474240862222 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.004725750360103262, "strength_record": 0.007156817362745088, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.0036627977422805584, "adv_strength_record": 0.005676024274133049, "adv_full": 0.002179204889706029, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005465889150808422, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0021952144932420145, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012988498442472865, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0017877579273554542, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009159697503591761, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0044762214556912745, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006740040745702888, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0046074732684637165, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0038964609806771723, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0018948304064709876, "adv_selected": 0.0009159697503591761 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.03785360272560755, "strength_record": 0.018566904770357984, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.03564419155415975, "adv_strength_record": 0.00853645395984233, "adv_full": 0.006110770464957134, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006867476463516946, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005390838014302008, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03277343630944349, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004121334754394113, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001250644027049959, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01037170547922666, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0013269497051023118, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010628580565827347, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00438586486051668, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005778094420600503, "adv_selected": 0.001250644027049959 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03193427738814906, "strength": 0.014950570595448548, "strength_record": 0.022937106541041894, "adv_record": 0.024162336410754326, "adv_strength": 0.01290609170096658, "adv_strength_record": 0.021302267300783637, "adv_full": 0.02263482806572589, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022527029312342236, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02338135307677136, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.026017320467244556, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.023637763809518895, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010338489177450182, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.036167011415617706, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01102382907029855, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03740921262186261, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06899899432622743, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014478191203306064, "adv_selected": 0.010338489177450182 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.026479812714563806, "strength_record": 0.015762858204647626, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.02411445752314656, "adv_strength_record": 0.007958644610492168, "adv_full": 0.002270090249369792, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006368967306326114, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002170640920069361, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013158099170635274, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002317089524552963, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0003769649742812838, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007647810924821744, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00230204597740682, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0025367820927355077, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006028387392773573, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0022985478260433337, "adv_selected": 0.0003769649742812838 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.19884819834912054, "strength": 0.11556557060095038, "strength_record": 0.19109383703732416, "adv_record": 0.24123978780519753, "adv_strength": 0.1207974986939042, "adv_strength_record": 0.24386105423097953, "adv_full": 0.16989835155498267, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.26061210091469744, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.17505141803466642, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.1789935450051544, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1372639649363938, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.20093241808851708, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.14658648321831727, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0673748033953693, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.22899752946782864, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.2420103112390009, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.14324231302761636, "adv_selected": 0.20093241808851708 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.018341744605958936, "strength_record": 0.013321973383558967, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.016139261960270206, "adv_strength_record": 0.007405610849005126, "adv_full": 0.014212541037104153, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006598350443789104, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01394200503781941, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01457404910674286, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.015873253880943378, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023720625058740057, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01860180864460157, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007211627589572208, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011733375875279855, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008298368409118203, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01257498821457914, "adv_selected": 0.0023720625058740057 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004455487728592222, "strength": 0.006206384264383233, "strength_record": 0.004288494367677228, "adv_record": 0.0020274909050882065, "adv_strength": 0.004934631064848323, "adv_strength_record": 0.0019997785649122843, "adv_full": 0.0007446809310085518, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016768959542015481, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007614779600548482, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0035359374260646973, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001053434306767522, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00025207843634445876, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0010102696711360745, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00030839939387677175, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0009681865405378884, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0007363973588231292, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009120531653030273, "adv_selected": 0.00025207843634445876 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006794962668102956, "strength": 0.008053207524848416, "strength_record": 0.006348938315919935, "adv_record": 0.0034480131804021565, "adv_strength": 0.0065609809454160875, "adv_strength_record": 0.003367361653175067, "adv_full": 0.0026513399988473646, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0034567140937741053, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0025589690454539582, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01370029443316589, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0022959553543416633, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001226546258313062, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0032303732306644822, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0009570355686339018, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005108308083907388, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016814279109893318, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003390885069013571, "adv_selected": 0.001226546258313062 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004455487728592222, "strength": 0.0017873034257282138, "strength_record": 0.0024243725906527708, "adv_record": 0.0020274909050882065, "adv_strength": 0.001264837975766359, "adv_strength_record": 0.0015665501128376408, "adv_full": 0.00061100198197369, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013720957842322924, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006379484769583377, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0012916801031733413, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0014071067738776486, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00015812326547739604, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001604825617332879, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003444761670337605, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005533716329494416, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0028577769744903263, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005575433960830889, "adv_selected": 0.00015812326547739604 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.021697055321797568, "strength_record": 0.014387878217444777, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.019394098033386136, "adv_strength_record": 0.007653688939378101, "adv_full": 0.008462559505032377, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006933863155056826, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007855768624129634, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02083832000594145, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006819736070339303, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010896121664644876, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.016993575237016514, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005657306061593816, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007433327348703342, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004526341648386293, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008507193687875572, "adv_selected": 0.0010896121664644876 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001337131520072577, "strength": 0.0025092604768917194, "strength_record": 0.0013001234145533533, "adv_record": 0.00044595737646024896, "adv_strength": 0.0018330208041492718, "adv_strength_record": 0.0004382543267054197, "adv_full": 0.0031660440599683014, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004279127206582132, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003644652755367498, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002838373922815573, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003040837533980851, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00018650111685771398, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00456951587221524, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0011001720952697196, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0022553427417202616, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010609518124983697, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002400244616995821, "adv_selected": 0.00018650111685771398 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0022050014525780834, "strength": 0.0057202359380456955, "strength_record": 0.002621010347965267, "adv_record": 0.0008367754123038754, "adv_strength": 0.004513524689003442, "adv_strength_record": 0.000899156330008072, "adv_full": 0.0015717982392483734, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007146586315232044, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001708775626347751, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003782580145352624, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0018835049698924548, "adv_add_player_availability": 8.385800433191479e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00854224903770275, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026264279607463898, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0017399365312452052, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006342365583720878, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010559776412551658, "adv_selected": 8.385800433191479e-05 } } ] }, { "season": 2026, "champion": "NYK", "cutoffDate": "2025-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.788131796137565 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2112106983352406, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4068845449730216 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.4232084189763956, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.48148814207184637, "record": 1.3775470757746395 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2230660416751484, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1713157352841235, "record": 0.3987614869956704, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.04207896609903393, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.18002357338468042, "prior_net_rating": 0.4195306704850279, "retained_minutes_share": 0.028207272199568974, "rotation_box_production": 0.36429337644849374, "star_box_production": 0.4180314174440058, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0886180746612296, "efg_pct": 0.3425393663322502, "opp_efg_pct": -0.10575414618574366, "turnover_rate": 0.1899383714435694, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.011195526903280174, "oreb_pct": 0.11248153265163083, "dreb_pct": 0.10725611909595285, "ft_rate": -0.1684417917470406, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17076371516499766, "pace": 0.1280814862030002, "three_attempt_rate": -0.015218087089553837, "three_pct": 0.2167763671008174, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.09643385991676857, "opp_three_pct": -0.023410171482660305 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9785680222617477, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.767872274314114, "record": 1.4528542329589942, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.9162730517358926, "adjusted_def_rating": 1.082973396071233 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.256672049571788, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.20397302211398693, "record": 0.41733079210049556, "prior_net_rating": 0.41213786626455123, "retained_minutes_share": 0.027105910402202227, "rotation_box_production": 0.35019202625234264, "star_box_production": 0.4101358377086615, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08608906354113996, "efg_pct": 0.313617654861449, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17062956918912328, "turnover_rate": 0.21770519169535033, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0575993180943228, "oreb_pct": 0.10436893911004576, "dreb_pct": 0.14202081152188573, "ft_rate": -0.17392914325229192, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18816390927207158, "pace": 0.13661570946526108, "three_attempt_rate": -0.0181015954035717, "three_pct": 0.2053195344803263, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.08204748433271718, "opp_three_pct": -0.047325966057745965 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9851807122527576, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4399933106576893, "record": 0.6122655595626517, "prior_net_rating": 0.5915133579809011, "retained_minutes_share": 0.07122481872321372 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3416945510057796, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.19034819843936937, "record": 0.41910366103616903, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.020256122086604593, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.16765719265917253, "rotation_box_production": 0.43798156344622274, "star_box_production": 0.46396406428314924, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08686081778166224, "efg_pct": 0.3317587636945559, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1037377128322599, "turnover_rate": 0.1663976782415894, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.005033114649463288, "oreb_pct": 0.08872206824770631, "dreb_pct": 0.11430927520780061, "ft_rate": -0.17016755050297563, "opp_ft_rate": -0.19366033018232842, "pace": 0.13587069283952896, "three_attempt_rate": 0.016519996550082124, "three_pct": 0.20993869931870146, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.06135551577292296, "opp_three_pct": -0.01887600714213383 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.978922784444226, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.37513732385352666, "record": 1.0500742650987922, "rotation_box_production": 0.674531742159458, "star_box_production": 0.5872161122924778, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.15625354496628083 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.871656886178171, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.19605492861122378, "record": 0.4618358147828183, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.041998874392806605, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.13848550671449525, "prior_net_rating": 0.5894243114640016, "retained_minutes_share": 0.05349191330840748, "efg_pct": 0.4952822549241516, "opp_efg_pct": -0.09311519647325378, "turnover_rate": 0.1692998320765117, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.004728545911644087, "oreb_pct": 0.07131866889742923, "dreb_pct": 0.13046594537897532, "ft_rate": -0.16107777472080734, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1651324738753439, "pace": 0.1918610052937802, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07225940699148731, "three_pct": 0.21629429457196617, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.12066887121003023, "opp_three_pct": -0.03864316007720509 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1850450616911297, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21662257210067717, "record": 1.0125863132662964, "efg_pct": 0.9803184965005308, "opp_efg_pct": -0.04321851908499399, "turnover_rate": 0.2167030876551985, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.004658188199547843, "oreb_pct": 0.17180663412131236, "dreb_pct": 0.2975977667313111, "ft_rate": -0.308288814860115, "opp_ft_rate": -0.3082960439203404 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1613929116005615, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21915716989039985, "record": 0.4533344110292025, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.035898942889945655, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.22899203050893593, "prior_net_rating": 0.4016045349002378, "retained_minutes_share": 0.03164916544687603, "rotation_box_production": 0.38852571461488394, "star_box_production": 0.4529357055684417, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11129035933720942, "pace": 0.17606009831579142, "three_attempt_rate": 0.032549784154454614, "three_pct": 0.31056251438152227, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.08729272868196494, "opp_three_pct": -0.042003456270585084 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9817317325845905, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.37895608427626665, "record": 1.202642862193727, "pace": 0.4367138238139978, "three_attempt_rate": -0.013472513009614523, "three_pct": 0.4552050584869601, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.08131010602151124, "opp_three_pct": 0.04931884746793614 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.234574423319222, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.20179397256675108, "record": 0.4193106774506851, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.009582760489435675, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17585870333830136, "prior_net_rating": 0.40210021864293205, "retained_minutes_share": 0.03131521814609288, "rotation_box_production": 0.39518051774590496, "star_box_production": 0.4082523346572483, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.09497755521937007, "efg_pct": 0.4081821492947498, "opp_efg_pct": -0.09732791830871797, "turnover_rate": 0.2143952788777018, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.05154491661193502, "oreb_pct": 0.11422561953653772, "dreb_pct": 0.10572778966150258, "ft_rate": -0.1634050437264396, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17532894192069215 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9596610187458527, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.871656886178171, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666661, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 3.1377801730211394, "brier": 1.010762327286405, "championProbability": 0.04337898494426716, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.8205053371340303, "brier": 0.9545726756174916, "championProbability": 0.05957582922205205, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.965150758975684, "brier": 0.9923060765231942, "championProbability": 0.05155269662749567, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 3.251572287025804, "brier": 1.0547004875212511, "championProbability": 0.03871329154930182, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.8160730910423246, "brier": 0.9613915847133689, "championProbability": 0.05984047000157743, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.1240309891310525, "brier": 1.0450125639604382, "championProbability": 0.04397952962429756, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.8895811449109026, "brier": 1.057914898298033, "championProbability": 0.05559949586678273, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 3.00105616481967, "brier": 0.9902489650617533, "championProbability": 0.04973451277634812, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.8843395273910564, "brier": 1.05486041004424, "championProbability": 0.05589169228033606, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 3.005052721597897, "brier": 1.05849362463466, "championProbability": 0.049536142635004776, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.953379171455371, "brier": 1.0830176302069006, "championProbability": 0.05216313960010567, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.8651776173094916, "brier": 1.2857292309619308, "championProbability": 0.020959199389817953, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.7507140333939315, "brier": 0.9628384520025519, "championProbability": 0.06388223087173353, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.314424882032007, "brier": 0.8945948280897973, "championProbability": 0.098823002546298, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 3.2137769335881563, "brier": 1.1009382373238732, "championProbability": 0.04020447650993856, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.0737511316444466, "brier": 0.9792073102386128, "championProbability": 0.04624734918225929, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.011245004319858, "brier": 1.0915029495705273, "championProbability": 0.049230348593555705, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 3.8651776173094916, "brier": 1.2857292309619308, "championProbability": 0.020959199389817953, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.013832250241332401, "strength": 0.018429528892346326, "strength_record": 0.014165012702199888, "adv_record": 0.009604729778725705, "adv_strength": 0.016642813462642857, "adv_strength_record": 0.009697844718405608, "adv_full": 0.0042121593651066325, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010917513152909437, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004396488925676049, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01116013558233878, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005046016634599756, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001992261186279528, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008130488148179106, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003500756918666138, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0058688705817172, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01068429370327152, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00389306661600829, "adv_selected": 0.001992261186279528 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008903589354146621, "strength": 0.0014252992202074969, "strength_record": 0.0007307944548375888, "adv_record": 0.000338520736532584, "adv_strength": 0.001020481509040831, "adv_strength_record": 0.00028343244330722396, "adv_full": 0.0001009453750288483, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009197404843508555, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0001193365371348168, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0007831565515235959, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00016568496790321166, "adv_add_player_availability": 3.0638074445403625e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00022562505471045123, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00015216069265953447, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00014587763604921507, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003044192073148167, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00011764280499630435, "adv_selected": 3.0638074445403625e-05 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010127790001264953, "strength": 0.029134152684799138, "strength_record": 0.015046961301560495, "adv_record": 0.006567240069328447, "adv_strength": 0.02742536209509431, "adv_strength_record": 0.00858466178945225, "adv_full": 0.002904683053937127, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008732051253904902, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0027328805194831445, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.031860817199392884, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0015970120654733696, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008265851958780964, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008828709738373679, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0022303854750209853, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004576644705739624, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0035026220951583655, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0036158055402764656, "adv_selected": 0.0008265851958780964 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004410687501901214, "strength": 0.010473870639832171, "strength_record": 0.005374269451235386, "adv_record": 0.0023829240663986876, "adv_strength": 0.008985937318706304, "adv_strength_record": 0.0026834905177620205, "adv_full": 0.002298124281579598, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004880750246658032, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002626264540694375, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0021680862952089194, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005596582493404318, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005563951205715852, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003958032436018485, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01139521880197335, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013672944107369315, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005707922657664873, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001994577188771118, "adv_selected": 0.0005563951205715852 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04337898494426716, "strength": 0.02511628467788518, "strength_record": 0.03260202805562444, "adv_record": 0.03871329154930182, "adv_strength": 0.02332709081964112, "adv_strength_record": 0.03185881280319676, "adv_full": 0.028088336752377128, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04547628198707061, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03057676445002784, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019991119872517137, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.042113439290168336, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012995920022819758, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.040602767674813536, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07678415672144032, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02092668877245335, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06163338771902472, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0221660543461568, "adv_selected": 0.012995920022819758 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05452010644417072, "strength": 0.041628078852820084, "strength_record": 0.048730222332755355, "adv_record": 0.05116053621851179, "adv_strength": 0.040475486450990306, "adv_strength_record": 0.047688304127591376, "adv_full": 0.03348259334478349, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05834293526393125, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03207331804156701, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07598345236076513, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022674849056916656, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017058225397122432, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.051599444501013, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019184669072871283, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.05369730705318925, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07623469334327856, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03079476127772096, "adv_selected": 0.017058225397122432 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003509368547083923, "strength": 0.0036156994269098304, "strength_record": 0.0026737604814702897, "adv_record": 0.0018031639412129637, "adv_strength": 0.0028168047426277766, "adv_strength_record": 0.0014554743546984427, "adv_full": 0.001068560822808959, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017518371632698378, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0010456717093840129, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003642376452429017, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0011979508951129167, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00023917750483175195, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0017940855690098663, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0004926101658891668, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014664189761498302, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012018574830016313, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0011522910853527556, "adv_selected": 0.00023917750483175195 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09294023171341918, "strength": 0.12303290121223502, "strength_record": 0.11834296597691972, "adv_record": 0.09804905143614805, "adv_strength": 0.13198043661849235, "adv_strength_record": 0.11795813591719703, "adv_full": 0.31431022786414753, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10622039909104655, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.3235860802369801, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07768076130497764, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.3830203320875516, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.48478350631332595, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.1060672245139728, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.1451492885622087, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.2723014922525959, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07109464800925634, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.33122047478172933, "adv_selected": 0.48478350631332595 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.10824020945656188, "strength": 0.04442687068375184, "strength_record": 0.07537247405241745, "adv_record": 0.11807557146037599, "adv_strength": 0.043452454713693224, "adv_strength_record": 0.0930642505062379, "adv_full": 0.022611931109721196, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08636941177847066, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021526730007092376, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04852847484932646, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022377265294772304, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04121976961285362, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.022061681887221688, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010647472636864073, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04319229363452031, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07506417766158761, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.022107014913215546, "adv_selected": 0.04121976961285362 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018891697667007618, "strength": 0.02463818242261144, "strength_record": 0.019833332565821274, "adv_record": 0.014047123776270546, "adv_strength": 0.022843196320754582, "adv_strength_record": 0.01448555649819467, "adv_full": 0.01347682833561964, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01537570046809042, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013945320729797591, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02479842628191596, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012482428569780815, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0021608971910878965, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.031963502419330325, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.029378740275519188, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010070558159447211, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0160266114426309, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01326088965305142, "adv_selected": 0.0021608971910878965 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04337898494426716, "strength": 0.10725016211034925, "strength_record": 0.0704220317703091, "adv_record": 0.03871329154930182, "adv_strength": 0.11362631579507826, "adv_strength_record": 0.05477193997077644, "adv_full": 0.140255464669628, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.052883927614986864, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.14285260212534687, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06099201185333103, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1156878224475038, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.038329077718573246, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.16021808674446952, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.12416891524465146, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.07748114173910187, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08992986815723351, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10624822157623277, "adv_selected": 0.038329077718573246 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008903589354146621, "strength": 0.002507927467138769, "strength_record": 0.000986257203037818, "adv_record": 0.000338520736532584, "adv_strength": 0.0018900381435436216, "adv_strength_record": 0.000349989174466253, "adv_full": 0.0002430803882123341, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004256916756348813, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0002337343756952373, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002565839877093278, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00019428305647522663, "adv_add_player_availability": 3.2758582448271255e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006251732177068436, "adv_add_four_factors": 3.509451462297156e-05, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006135383281981817, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003678872214507128, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0001852954488885134, "adv_selected": 3.2758582448271255e-05 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004410687501901214, "strength": 0.006114553183233044, "strength_record": 0.004039371560831711, "adv_record": 0.0023829240663986876, "adv_strength": 0.004996000217656754, "adv_strength_record": 0.0021950772479885448, "adv_full": 0.01066464906021155, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0048777807946504236, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011856353211312065, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008957838057023068, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008259456440274928, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011519494416907799, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01423127379253803, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011918972092578172, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004356829927823743, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016326175660429047, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01199128055105077, "adv_selected": 0.0011519494416907799 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05452010644417072, "strength": 0.02325353803988876, "strength_record": 0.03577920461519184, "adv_record": 0.05116053621851179, "adv_strength": 0.021446632477242253, "adv_strength_record": 0.038371748805996725, "adv_full": 0.013676040532148688, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.058511897520039303, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015528204195195822, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02588009962878658, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014415635929731068, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008409177022299383, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.027931669951740765, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.048125194123578095, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010458530211877756, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.027474089373968495, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016438126313559558, "adv_selected": 0.008409177022299383 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005429481887636488, "strength": 0.0058698024479415115, "strength_record": 0.004464336015940331, "adv_record": 0.003070282772125157, "adv_strength": 0.004778286951430971, "adv_strength_record": 0.0026279804977039044, "adv_full": 0.0027305932036615138, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004139554422893623, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00294691101050229, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008988998601388002, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002313476844367526, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006805575952611254, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005339391445444681, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0012728123382008405, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004193880309377728, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003923099590451146, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00230204452471202, "adv_selected": 0.0006805575952611254 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.027461532286452053, "strength": 0.06326847871512042, "strength_record": 0.04072168707836257, "adv_record": 0.02216716323108384, "adv_strength": 0.06389706483391232, "adv_strength_record": 0.02927191870146594, "adv_full": 0.01791105796055942, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.029255740711584866, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018016938840369236, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02558696299740246, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.019259081539903355, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0026276515670467402, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07820893568935475, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03548858538517877, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018661865524561255, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.1218220699274696, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009708673266772222, "adv_selected": 0.0026276515670467402 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.027461532286452053, "strength": 0.02008952523098018, "strength_record": 0.022156955001978555, "adv_record": 0.02216716323108384, "adv_strength": 0.018284331030228307, "adv_strength_record": 0.019075630492194073, "adv_full": 0.04800515743307057, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.032024962139158716, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.052254779542205004, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.021651454716511382, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.058991009077769566, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02534699571301514, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03787595155232342, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04456794182927258, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.050779069493391664, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03841701047916721, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0384946196934699, "adv_selected": 0.02534699571301514 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.027461532286452053, "strength": 0.042615607125594715, "strength_record": 0.033020084636834396, "adv_record": 0.02216716323108384, "adv_strength": 0.04152387142549377, "adv_strength_record": 0.025257490099808908, "adv_full": 0.022217573102187624, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03761868990302817, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02444566580054767, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04480509495853991, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016042211798951347, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0037701264941361807, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0850398790613025, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0528507775260052, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018465347077827925, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05213521061624245, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01762849611707878, "adv_selected": 0.0037701264941361807 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002058647188752542, "strength": 0.0030500425843173855, "strength_record": 0.001787567376088373, "adv_record": 0.0009408641161859305, "adv_strength": 0.0023397499971357857, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008275321583007985, "adv_full": 0.00043088712191516446, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0019484127311139665, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004960021144988499, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0011311154830036863, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008362759507838207, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00016232801866791871, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006075256334331407, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000382239255627692, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006078712230764301, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0009353111092879436, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0003285287731524765, "adv_selected": 0.00016232801866791871 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04337898494426716, "strength": 0.05957582922205205, "strength_record": 0.05155269662749567, "adv_record": 0.03871329154930182, "adv_strength": 0.05984047000157743, "adv_strength_record": 0.04397952962429756, "adv_full": 0.05559949586678273, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04973451277634812, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05589169228033606, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.049536142635004776, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05216313960010567, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.020959199389817953, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06388223087173353, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.098823002546298, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04020447650993856, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.04624734918225929, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.049230348593555705, "adv_selected": 0.020959199389817953 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.2287158081758734, "strength": 0.154900274074652, "strength_record": 0.22659498485377114, "adv_record": 0.2940393650455097, "adv_strength": 0.16967288197992558, "adv_strength_record": 0.2995784929919652, "adv_full": 0.20062748935519262, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.20751229463845927, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.17429374679718454, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.3595452296786612, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.12032704648257082, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.29510597451176745, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.1610639647257579, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08485249470824936, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.3001673885222541, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.12004899015586111, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.2451309973501239, "adv_selected": 0.29510597451176745 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00696724220422442, "strength": 0.01751416732717588, "strength_record": 0.009226928214421502, "adv_record": 0.00416159853927461, "adv_strength": 0.015743289459095932, "adv_strength_record": 0.004995674343992807, "adv_full": 0.0031457186692123384, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006488922045836294, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003441987950841623, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009354850935292964, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003590443703828325, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0015768884322870163, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005206366563700687, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026069783208006753, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004098584133565877, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005296393781122618, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0039771727282159755, "adv_selected": 0.0015768884322870163 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.027461532286452053, "strength": 0.031226119775854967, "strength_record": 0.02799824278851706, "adv_record": 0.02216716323108384, "adv_strength": 0.029580072308630544, "adv_strength_record": 0.022489465704645575, "adv_full": 0.006406148847362123, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.031694719302637404, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006877276492838694, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009910989977606739, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012158625573480398, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004662445010829404, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010775161246902577, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015412961575206552, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00791540193243317, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.04165233567693673, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00486634400585938, "adv_selected": 0.004662445010829404 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.013832250241332401, "strength": 0.013231850182853845, "strength_record": 0.011881688200355454, "adv_record": 0.009604729778725705, "adv_strength": 0.011595331101861136, "adv_strength_record": 0.008569654248834824, "adv_full": 0.010493837781821337, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012738482685144895, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01146015641117818, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008726410037479093, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014450887452000852, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0031488018536974006, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011329795694833052, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016588352794725227, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007819664338187324, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01090079298237212, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009949903859309434, "adv_selected": 0.0031488018536974006 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020246735994776565, "strength": 0.028733368246356424, "strength_record": 0.02240996893239229, "adv_record": 0.015285399711972208, "adv_strength": 0.027014126570201344, "adv_strength_record": 0.016372937428573524, "adv_full": 0.0023961044566497367, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019296198969252838, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002636136877935725, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014271489496466214, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002830939117218915, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011419870555522, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006768225095444267, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0038586593567611705, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0041512074714322575, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.028821295533567833, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00249749484071589, "adv_selected": 0.0011419870555522 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003509368547083923, "strength": 0.005312027107987835, "strength_record": 0.00327910863870407, "adv_record": 0.0018031639412129637, "adv_strength": 0.0042852518440467365, "adv_strength_record": 0.001680222804228802, "adv_full": 0.0039996522556476795, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003027561323274161, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004346171411371713, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0042701782982376675, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0049257084042001855, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009183071997959344, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005951511543256956, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0021270991622892644, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005113419541022944, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005389920199398159, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0025172713176760037, "adv_selected": 0.0009183071997959344 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09294023171341918, "strength": 0.05544550112149966, "strength_record": 0.07753530061529947, "adv_record": 0.09804905143614805, "adv_strength": 0.05533007959939781, "adv_strength_record": 0.08760257304639921, "adv_full": 0.032096162968861336, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09013340268071632, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03276623823688501, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03511194834985904, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04664508097687732, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02609588705081853, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.037824535989228955, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.14937936873741348, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02101169959772561, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05661200379838845, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0428802112877333, "adv_selected": 0.02609588705081853 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.013832250241332401, "strength": 0.03192836502925071, "strength_record": 0.018959756480305272, "adv_record": 0.009604729778725705, "adv_strength": 0.030306364925470466, "adv_strength_record": 0.011905893246501802, "adv_full": 0.005686669972107707, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014904328502721208, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006046136284550645, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00963579991802753, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009042295216477852, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0038168000701134003, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0098591658224239, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0068857685150134585, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009533657022599753, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0242590830768023, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00457298575272394, "adv_selected": 0.0038168000701134003 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004410687501901214, "strength": 0.005245964411343538, "strength_record": 0.003724029947404783, "adv_record": 0.0023829240663986876, "adv_strength": 0.004227158231793396, "adv_strength_record": 0.0020730620879625306, "adv_full": 0.0005873679849065653, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00319287272124026, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006459598750258648, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002076568474903513, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0009987297603483226, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00017852265167267917, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0012145605755468725, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0011013283227841251, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005517618484370027, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016496668984664858, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005726788805264388, "adv_selected": 0.00017852265167267917 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008903589354146621, "strength": 0.0009460278830105215, "strength_record": 0.0005879780679165396, "adv_record": 0.000338520736532584, "adv_strength": 0.0006526190545939071, "adv_strength_record": 0.0002432236478534565, "adv_full": 0.00027245806475080313, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006034259515756814, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00033445046834125166, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00040416927498637196, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0005962892714475466, "adv_add_player_availability": 2.11890012932651e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008150328402146037, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006379943276301222, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00020121906456795717, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001030371351321606, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00015672691136381023, "adv_selected": 2.11890012932651e-05 } } ] } ], "selectionAudit": [ { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8736582951453897 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.1153506013913486 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8420692692746745 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.314414379657182 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9239044576042466 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.150220331837726 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8836440094471176 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.323924533998718 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7769851566012915 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8964823453623691 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5690837222279104 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2442923375565886 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.640294842122323 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.724502927398323 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6917089906257856 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0370268359918025 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8647305468028474 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9754772053180318 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.504384335550616 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2064210594109563 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.945822199311838 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.794191891169565 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7458473555321703 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.066096266430076 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 13.325298496318135 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.724012120735155 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.7089400219996174 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3784414298078773 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2905315223843346 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3368301319883633 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7382584571528237 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.898121789630941 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0530268998374572 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1690749415803086 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8728632222257684 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.026625095520751 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 13.786843362548687 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.702759716598688 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.4293246703451943 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2359242003044693 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.78386679027016 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5573418426506245 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.501226510138947 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.162406362979775 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 15.0240788207141 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.820045372006319 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.887065474614118 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.105876131089013 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.087053263550489 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0910072274781837 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5220404395353855 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.211561584789276 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.818464528226562 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.746319279742758 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.68115782389961 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0609751490239767 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.0714629453131006 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.7771528487062802 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.7167799440329514 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.4473265493482088 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.706868757011237 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.596324039823174 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2684716964889207 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1055757151232684 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4094328208487248 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5026925869674708 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.258846058487976 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1182104955517327 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.258005419225226 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1244898800114447 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1404287891145533 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.006814025647929052 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.27483615175959125 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2027607117319747 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6566383185019125 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.9567154886468057 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2523071944019952 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0010653512691996 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0733715414948843 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.002863069456365989 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.29351487348703553 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2848090429469277 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7085718961056267 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.577999137687611 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.8472641187240496 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8465617666377818 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0549983753258148 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7095929233733276 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9486884471847098 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.4164018002799112 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.721714973842917 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5794480749010866 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4638886453362723 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7949546332789574 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.930201499293999 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.0671765753767693 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.4780201536763703 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.4035106683532115 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8319046727603645 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.38238256757723316 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7041838575164098 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.747492341803334 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.99085845255643 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.10153266235090992 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.37397767743998717 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3942849628397618 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7833147485150587 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3286581561626296 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3466102093077341 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.09788016659576 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1161151862246332 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.02759528140021743 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.4489763156231588 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2192836723409135 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.673648931677989 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.7995269029993801 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.2388675473225312 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.2642359842469129 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.90797184910178 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0749889261081176 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6991261560753967 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2732587167024816 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.4169188790462957 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.276437100181159 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1815920560505746 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3504760563088243 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.4460539452802936 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.527483984223251 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.763420573134244 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2360424630172644 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5031712210756805 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7852438089420553 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3298515332302294 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.990058886453123 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.632594305687456 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.515333620002131 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7845800691395968 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2181583401231038 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.6368417754313591 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7170043195183438 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.296149314417958 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9995557782742015 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3815692780719653 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.186109557821916 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.383123046139898 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1209974732415393 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9015204837094428 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.486903170220331 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6629220684389994 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0832497686597944 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.275256648907404 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.947027478186353 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7922720771617695 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1622950428237107 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.814152494474893 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.580066742284359 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3540974148904685 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0419935176874398 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.574441454005437 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.736462903508562 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8079831872864833 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1897426839644614 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.9536069811443015 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.287268195454948 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.588602820005439 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0270649066163933 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.401556645404725 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0295310953271004 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7818097495944443 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2044787374208674 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6965552274344133 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0943710507485038 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.22619718162943 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.010507099351411 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.2010278276189923 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.254172650968547 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.751499515481408 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.731390266189141 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.4441130164756477 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.180060553632294 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.339855098157263 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.767052350047146 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.620616888950825 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.344404108897585 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3734624193649814 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.8212791262397934 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.6201608046554448 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.26918909660911 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3224549843130875 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 9.855538725059384 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.57143183091393 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.5039474056965214 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.147728688308134 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.601222829669868 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.5059137866616448 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.2534880955011563 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.298867566333538 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 11.194523812584439 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.947512834995839 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.55525964869736 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1616032119394566 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.156068767944525 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.8221188732319353 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.2690244079194595 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2881774414689136 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 7.606560495646101 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.091865580020335 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.5624700959587976 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1692945306855305 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.854581381589621 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.6657440175664706 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1928950722438683 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2064958526938936 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.160799077956696 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.798964805130228 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.4449987389593613 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.233534881511072 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.894480501486875 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.3244579314317395 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.363471381173158 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.261809125851216 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.422239086211483 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.9500408199626578 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.254572729015624 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.178267911413883 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.141624246016161 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.89532912860351 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.4079285161964012 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3344045548466306 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 10.862770215673725 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.297122158494382 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.3432110174187817 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1280839527265436 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.2945852354448997 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.6161786423997557 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4839397400539736 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.27760405926471 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.325704023691184 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.720367347799522 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2599039668475505 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.138995736457653 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2038888017190867 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6648469124278056 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2561335331811594 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.199411494680011 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.1892157750430545 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.445194729827248 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.138744331708419 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 11.149193366586855 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.7933731608673664 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1246827161434974 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6833557871959273 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.5787646906958424 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5938651336848975 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6185739271033643 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.120772680795538 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 11.38020415635002 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.4536563860937775 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9606021058561491 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.673809814855741 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7675909942419932 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.73730229659125 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.110165445130982 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0164233605265864 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 7.550151036302971 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.43310871429148 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2258600735608973 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7574178468407426 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.7707592065723438 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.8651211553071323 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.482828821928986 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7781973434473155 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.373493361837647 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.3711243302070772 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5922026118636894 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.957973198207532 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.0671615021085947 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8567610703022486 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7470751953262833 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1116069568158062 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3976043181745417 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7440894843550616 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6529859036083194 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.658533221916729 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3200135839696436 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2553801123061454 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3802828269757352 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0867921581169204 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.761834019205269 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1408126340909606 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.123219166400165 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.717358512473088 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.389703556258403 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.1792559503873905 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.1806235150331226 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0544301117671715 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0566421124591425 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4853448420342836 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2062747519300645 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.408229878894703 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.3442802150177884 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.234678164838106 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3487925874064124 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3140624337309643 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.399649605220412 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6481697780982083 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1765451973707637 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9912858967610492 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.6204988632867416 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.499064582747797 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.890778694753837 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2883306877487284 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3668536255730817 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.685356440426291 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1570517860868637 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.6153826903511526 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1793459209772332 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6434432631805165 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.909482171036952 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7117841603587352 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.78049023778705 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1259846766337893 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.999995898953755 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.6293578188791762 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8642955602016484 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.543063935244218 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.016829975980471 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.247967336755659 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4707022315460312 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9999725492379092 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.891462563666622 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.782029023066117 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8840908744912737 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.97826079506309 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1240114139643036 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1344769541872646 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.363745684829396 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.351430286719678 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2682788228884405 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5690317235160769 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.8230451135566278 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6672013431285302 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.767951299393191 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2178852160530154 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.35935962331236 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7663544094060772 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.212509207061619 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0688410999746387 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.917207529758688 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.53402559790146 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8604916014562947 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.112368860935973 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.3497856929671155 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.6551711983153274 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.093841822058573 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.1755098264120813 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6033143773851704 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.21924021247272 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7841832526291654 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8852702433475972 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4565620969052917 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2019621723578777 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0140144876916533 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9909212155407077 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.262925384012668 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0581659970199633 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9228273551542705 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9654390129399862 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2178570133168005 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4690452882523797 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7919875354467365 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8951343538430536 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.103868845725958 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.944792817905107 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.472074229037447 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0432417585433558 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3407973758549496 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5547329990542087 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5556643304257904 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5639909362538502 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.990647640223097 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.941600713337748 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.069795243491956 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.189200778889108 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6167510351379792 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5629744697885943 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.127823793485461 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9989966122203766 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.206935798795987 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9412108753762918 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3092726621300164 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.6367948100496498 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2270192692261903 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5538400283746547 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0877389208583024 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.759879203393771 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.823941244765121 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.814514407456568 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5057184805551634 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.6302289189776092 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3868142173231015 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6552765430138665 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5963520298375586 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.6387086633850234 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0420467922560244 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9743923598390483 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2746425822425296 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7568062440927067 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2492218014306815 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5289462840723345 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.2751279755589344 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.8521443604491827 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.9394918798786804 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0442248696527705 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.1120242792989368 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5448356104871217 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.200561451472637 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.7970633352563046 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7740064293515316 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8738310228860526 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2678066661723064 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.154846930484225 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2431241200889134 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4981730113155862 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1039367488835303 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.340770191592288 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.304391706910664 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 4.063164643815665 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0423331420591544 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3954722903882617 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2980068044273736 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5174574192439265 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0390152399499977 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.618917384108665 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.187097974755892 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 4.024621557232477 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.067368078422186 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.298378870882535 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1807819039835916 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.72769344562118 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.056634003412915 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.709555515443531 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.896850630490216 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.567917396851909 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0373173033429928 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.6383380009332824 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.4957313262624115 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9884513951137106 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0644388584139395 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.933895977199563 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.418095454167239 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.406649415541018 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0135405369024473 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.225677522274022 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3376583663825663 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.561008061165604 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0365986909911946 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.670249546738811 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.557748082916404 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.9487529139425273 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.057030735405937 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.257684403373454 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2046311218573997 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.916130494374892 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1326597321797176 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.548722168619323 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.076950745507179 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.742770945469447 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.98955990468185 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.21828585627204 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.772632194271118 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.411860578957385 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.6245663101115397 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.6189963903428355 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7796820754142173 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2353477694278525 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.3071945419073194 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2318131742669762 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0953414554641485 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3023110261955404 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.674506722180196 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7246349435397876 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8191762848337794 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1700383714734985 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3529405002356154 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9012589938315275 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2039809059392055 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2787260326996797 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.987998558184171 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.991835166155292 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.039731313172101 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1730238416344414 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.7120054781903882 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7226176262346342 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.067045726122409 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2348825871896225 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.4936163371680342 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7045803136487874 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2250573430144636 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.954555080488816 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0635424166123164 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0425426071773276 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3585542501048555 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.3987878855732836 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1116211094091935 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1394245083454189 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3246919802086061 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4981868459600403 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5414229788894982 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0379678304656343 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.997871315300285 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.794375383097762 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9783500828242233 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0404501760536813 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.37963094283167 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9812173980672014 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8040738456301515 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.587349644423409 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5561394664053703 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.383497482326351 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.394575664702582 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.503962103168024 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.725215216639643 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.126411248910514 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5706836646519606 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.5512389293670509 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.073399158369851 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.282553583830651 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.640507861042893 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.227950375758081 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.8472840563935464 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.061907552690568 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.11446137869843 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.488184626013673 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1682880607920225 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2367887820183456 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.346152532557903 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.025140043820008 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.08085254746382 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9496209704304868 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8207574516058997 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9585344818550097 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9130122399717204 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.06041180279309743 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.09961084552727525 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.36732035577772293 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.7517265455865112 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.870667471874515 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8451401513006476 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8818470172605162 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7860971349030974 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.046712661189813605 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.07632660596601104 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.3340085205053976 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.795674530528065 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.4993259068196289 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.5184572537091325 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.0278183786811352 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5480468080351857 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.9895070380319312 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.6616593453668126 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.7256281601255374 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.9883113141317001 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1534746279820967 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0310794388067126 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2318018743590522 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4760223313595633 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.01895444062470693 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.05097839824994357 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.35240488666892705 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.9993834340315468 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8383210984419348 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7408098643766109 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.0811369895765441 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.529301469039885 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6330813873988755 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.5163589779304104 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.6807625658252008 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.99708271339709 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3047632466940828 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2358498303288714 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5295979824271526 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.734832492726369 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.13636178556805137 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.15592496881335358 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.4339055906453363 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.8556961328414059 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.182645697446177 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.3221424437862836 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.6344033063915187 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.075213916659895 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2461470553230791 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.028037044468922 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0677805868885284 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5611834842225034 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.645338632730703 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.18073891620695 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.098437662020717 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0264432063580191 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1368669611245685 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6903561177588105 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.840309596318038 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8273518418991883 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4950615070317703 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3324396820259041 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.172415908415289 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.283543014876894 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2102031150826407 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5931439344046654 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.681246395867704 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.755627612287582 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5829815818772068 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.397866024218155 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2678468137665027 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9413073536957628 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9501930690712348 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.074058380754767 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.844508135793166 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1814228364354935 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9781002926214684 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.0998778967286469 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.1302723367579355 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8763348422558981 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.009371892327728 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5251441241996273 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6104097064709015 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.6943762440724104 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3599701691750112 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3824751092029133 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.306143599814423 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.44371471972849846 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.5746969896170866 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2028638121312383 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5392666888297657 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2735727020683703 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0729605982085415 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.348494015130902 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.3489395797425274 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.7683903169021711 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.8598780353413586 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3222140923596937 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6436260192755054 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.4141638030384838 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.289095884272164 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.4178163287471175 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2971168393244223 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.388431549044854 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.6631157738954472 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.3227570498440033 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.71564186184643 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.6685984138580157 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7206142069367623 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.191421148969389 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.7916996408799086 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.7202866689747416 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.440333871375012 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.359014431404194 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8925085191690716 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.9435720443854474 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0066985565440283 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.191180162963512 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.15967476247585408 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.4212786578304909 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.9712442062945347 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.293154578585933 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.573837137457995 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.838503246200207 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1324262053549177 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.218202413080507 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.15943516949052702 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.31998065314150326 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.8679921746930199 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.24246474633146 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.160736757105335 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2375831238551744 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.266275074772969 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.240467337730566 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.2648207452803555 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.31500443703755987 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.7164831659360099 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2048382076845545 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8074474439422433 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.862887630741373 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2637408512830373 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4613791441574966 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6733373620002455 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1060357368332323 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0388404423827655 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8806545244301742 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0095062946353197 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2479254430753959 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0762731125150173 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.955746063034881 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.4255459261467485 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7273735438616137 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3200569747995856 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4399873659774793 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7529418729621713 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8842908155274096 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.314133683588266 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.989973364615715 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5817898974921223 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7365381444672883 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2535354094636995 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4351243610313444 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.6468708973423176 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.6835099883682605 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.0418515531957846 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8379616145219506 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7780351573967845 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.763932054704564 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.191868141892954 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2629193926062852 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3514424563140963 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9319740924792537 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.016258013462865 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.5119150533791914 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2908428851865525 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1433615549660194 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.891563620775799 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.304505447996884 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2717989749021883 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2133615420570854 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.38550007706259 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.5108720869531194 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3393415511261106 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0040758253605895 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.715655511939301 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.997555106754505 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.3700612555947793 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.288907150028363 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4837975482823476 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.697635048864489 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.525305379832774 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6866795355459903 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.705796411844356 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.19447384713245 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.223641351686969 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4918078622543587 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4997696875363027 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.683215023705254 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2124896420896354 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.440294369873126 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7132485395163983 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1126792840291357 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.92756325790327 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7979304641875675 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.453720235557474 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.5552365243863777 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.853734517669204 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.283891429972541 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8010812921115584 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.258203231813012 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7222855545213753 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.076779136961198 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.3992838757526957 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.138804068580783 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.744929537206765 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2187590498581327 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8047185848390845 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.6578252400250815 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.143930516797444 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1778495499795922 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4248730487022487 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.7406669536201687 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.3799768278255473 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.026567074734741 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.251572287025804 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.184544140625941 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0611714852133254 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2608757911530706 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8160730910423246 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8189623414543976 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8993246578238776 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.23414994056459 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1240309891310525 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0604069129405835 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9429824004371055 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1508147576462653 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.582793481075166 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.282441524584047 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8895811449109026 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.976439884284656 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.00105616481967 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.961160212651071 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.877433490041328 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.071355742075244 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.891182280054335 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1554684802324493 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8843395273910564 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0077635559060525 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.118337607645286 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.7428599108405027 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.005052721597897 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0355074647536444 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.3138128709946466 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.900779307192057 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.953379171455371 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.043439678525502 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.022341543827967 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.8651776173094916 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.3184618259263825 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0487082980917886 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.852269909470809 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2452200224239105 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7507140333939315 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0207778454725642 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.259585178168377 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.314424882032007 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.790936351040659 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.177389593475699 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.021349382355529 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.7560368744617367 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.2137769335881563 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9456255998524568 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1374118044512773 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0737511316444466 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9769231370143623 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.155354767108063 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.172787141297841 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.3919995881948215 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.011245004319858 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.980611115790242 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.1377801730211394 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.8205053371340303 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.965150758975684 } ], "featureAblations": [ { "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.010111915815636264, "logLossCi95": [ -0.05151501247820794, 0.0700088591676975 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.04274981102786333, 0.07469273151772354 ], "brierDifference": -0.005215396038984031, "brierCi95": [ -0.03254645633888309, 0.018934371852642243 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.02463302941144773, 0.019986744982664888 ], "group": "adjusted_efficiency", "name": "Adjusted offense and defense", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency" }, { "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.03504986632814094, "logLossCi95": [ -0.16425246001772076, 0.21670765869500114 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.04336059993473692, 0.12231845645637272 ], "brierDifference": -0.001857750082840189, "brierCi95": [ -0.08441310126948082, 0.07868997210201627 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.04093566931491814, 0.034632128878625906 ], "group": "prior_roster", "name": "Previous season and roster continuity", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_prior_roster" }, { "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.1304612948978967, "logLossCi95": [ -0.20138678143392436, 0.49141246901318625 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.01342211390483596, 0.29265857188682876 ], "brierDifference": 0.016489651495185616, "brierCi95": [ -0.10220459203350134, 0.1509348537509677 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.05657825344299764, 0.08810831106434132 ], "group": "player_availability", "name": "Player box production and recent rotation", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_player_availability" }, { "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.04897372113543936, "logLossCi95": [ -0.2126062699701115, 0.25538376591824447 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.19558642982885732, 0.21108181770263312 ], "brierDifference": 0.025184553853744074, "brierCi95": [ -0.06195423381306927, 0.10262034264058877 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.06449503704273873, 0.10162810993893741 ], "group": "four_factors", "name": "Shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_four_factors" }, { "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.01508392327126947, "logLossCi95": [ -0.09097533157889463, 0.11373100996709513 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.11364981301939922, 0.12609466811905595 ], "brierDifference": 0.026077752078653735, "brierCi95": [ -0.010041344648890884, 0.0653429100456831 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.01980564955470354, 0.07915177630120204 ], "group": "pace_shooting", "name": "Pace and three-point profile", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_pace_shooting" } ] }, "featureGroups": [ { "id": "baseline", "name": "Current strength and record", "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "adjusted_efficiency", "name": "Adjusted offense and defense", "features": [ "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "prior_roster", "name": "Previous season and roster continuity", "features": [ "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "player_availability", "name": "Player box production and recent rotation", "features": [ "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "four_factors", "name": "Shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws", "features": [ "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "pace_shooting", "name": "Pace and three-point profile", "features": [ "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "status": "included" } ], "modelSelection": { "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666658, "topPickAccuracy": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.371409536031611, "brier": 0.8936827146124009, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.452418110495007, "brier": 0.8628559097888231, "topPickAccuracy": 0.4444444444444444 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.3160597174096305, "brier": 0.8789149064010632, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.3065955940371894, "brier": 0.9239428420620016, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.4405928221618733, "brier": 0.8647070699405589, "topPickAccuracy": 0.4444444444444444 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.2957721458394293, "brier": 0.9235609197369771, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.862001564098402, "brier": 0.7547553079549042, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.300418327527788, "brier": 0.909679983830535, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2222222222222222 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.8721134799140384, "brier": 0.7495399119159202, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.2365852440939213, "brier": 0.8522678777779469, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.8970514304265431, "brier": 0.752897557872064, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.00954009996102, "brier": 0.8478047979150569, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.9924628589962987, "brier": 0.7712449594500899, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.920563530076817, "brier": 0.7588497837123809, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.9109752852338413, "brier": 0.7799398618086484, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.1672623179746284, "brier": 0.8524104011863372, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.8770854873696716, "brier": 0.7808330600335579, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 2.00954009996102, "brier": 0.8478047979150569, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 } }, "candidateIds": [ "uniform", "record", "strength", "strength_record", "adv_record", "adv_strength", "adv_strength_record", "adv_full", "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "adv_add_prior_roster", "adv_without_prior_roster", "adv_add_player_availability", "adv_without_player_availability", "adv_add_four_factors", "adv_without_four_factors", "adv_add_pace_shooting", "adv_without_pace_shooting", "adv_selected" ], "testSeasons": 9, "firstTest": 2014, "lastTest": 2026, "method": "Frozen original forecasts are rescored on the identical advanced test years. Their longer training history is retained and disclosed." }, "teamStatistics": { "columns": [ { "id": "off_rating", "label": "ORTG", "description": "Points scored per 100 estimated possessions; displayed for interpretation.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "off_rating_rank", "label": "Offensive rank", "description": "League rank of raw estimated offensive rating; 1 is best. Display only.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "def_rating", "label": "DRTG", "description": "Points allowed per 100 estimated possessions; lower is better.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "def_rating_rank", "label": "Defensive rank", "description": "League rank of raw estimated defensive rating; 1 is best. Display only.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "adjusted_off_rating", "label": "Adjusted ORTG", "description": "Points scored per100 estimated possessions after opponent and home-court adjustment; higher is better.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "adjusted_def_rating", "label": "Adjusted DRTG", "description": "Points allowed per100 estimated possessions after opponent and home-court adjustment; lower is better.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "adjusted_net_rating", "label": "Adjusted net rating", "description": "Adjusted offensive minus defensive rating; displayed for interpretation.", "format": "signed" }, { "id": "pace", "label": "Estimated pace", "description": "Estimated possessions per48 minutes; overtime duration inferred from summed player minutes.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "pace_rank", "label": "Pace rank", "description": "League pace rank; 1 is fastest, not necessarily best. Display only.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "pace_game_coverage", "label": "Pace game coverage", "description": "Share of observed team games with known duration used for pace; missing-duration games are excluded from both numerator and denominator.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "three_made_per_game", "label": "3PM / game", "description": "Three-pointers made per game; displayed alongside the model's attempt-rate and accuracy inputs.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "record", "label": "Record z-score", "description": "Existing cutoff win percentage standardized within the league.", "format": "signed" }, { "id": "strength", "label": "Strength z-score", "description": "Existing score-only ridge strength, standardized within the cutoff league.", "format": "signed" }, { "id": "prior_net_rating", "label": "Prior-season adjusted net rating", "description": "Previous regular-season adjusted offense minus defense.", "format": "signed" }, { "id": "retained_minutes_share", "label": "Roster continuity", "description": "Last5-game minutes weighted by each player's previous-season minutes share with this franchise.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "rotation_box_production", "label": "Rotation box production", "description": "Recent rotation-weighted, shrunk box production per36; a counting-stat proxy, not EPM or adjusted player impact.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "star_box_production", "label": "Top rotation player's box production", "description": "Highest shrunk production among players with at least4% of recent team minutes; not EPM.", "format": "number" }, { "id": "recent_minutes_continuity", "label": "Recent minutes continuity", "description": "Overlap of player minute shares in the last3 games and earlier games; participation proxy, not an injury report.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "efg_pct", "label": "Effective FG%", "description": "(FGM+0.5*3PM)/FGA.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "opp_efg_pct", "label": "Opponent effective FG%", "description": "Opponent (FGM+0.5*3PM)/FGA.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "turnover_rate", "label": "Turnovers per possession", "description": "Team turnovers divided by estimated possessions.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "opp_turnover_rate", "label": "Opponent turnovers per possession", "description": "Opponent turnovers divided by estimated possessions.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "oreb_pct", "label": "Offensive rebound%", "description": "ORB/(ORB+opponent DRB).", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "dreb_pct", "label": "Defensive rebound%", "description": "DRB/(DRB+opponent ORB).", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "ft_rate", "label": "Free-throw attempt rate", "description": "FTA/FGA.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "opp_ft_rate", "label": "Opponent free-throw attempt rate", "description": "Opponent FTA/FGA.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "three_attempt_rate", "label": "Three-point attempt share", "description": "3PA/FGA.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "three_pct", "label": "Three-point accuracy", "description": "3PM/3PA before cutoff.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "opp_three_attempt_rate", "label": "Opponent three-point attempt share", "description": "Opponent3PA/FGA.", "format": "percent" }, { "id": "opp_three_pct", "label": "Opponent three-point accuracy", "description": "Opponent3PM/3PA before cutoff.", "format": "percent" } ], "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "values": { "record": 0.3724838353861853, "strength": 0.13890795371778547, "adjusted_off_rating": 110.96616004287253, "adjusted_def_rating": 110.39106923118732, "prior_net_rating": 2.034066075231522, "retained_minutes_share": 0.5656331259264024, "rotation_box_production": 19.836749337019434, "star_box_production": 27.479996278102153, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.9072980404182186, "efg_pct": 0.532871972318339, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5531914893617021, "turnover_rate": 0.1428842085320029, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1736714136853074, "oreb_pct": 0.2921739130434783, "dreb_pct": 0.725609756097561, "ft_rate": 0.21193771626297578, "opp_ft_rate": 0.3027079303675048, "pace": 105.56333333333333, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4524221453287197, "three_pct": 0.35181644359464626, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3984526112185687, "opp_three_pct": 0.33495145631067963, "adjusted_net_rating": 0.5750908116852103, "off_rating": 112.01806182702327, "def_rating": 110.04452303514478, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 15.333333333333334, "off_rating_rank": 13, "def_rating_rank": 13, "pace_rank": 2 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "values": { "record": -1.188616280892746, "strength": -1.1427251117992154, "adjusted_off_rating": 106.96086580182141, "adjusted_def_rating": 111.40184367473945, "prior_net_rating": -8.692480886294357, "retained_minutes_share": 0.6483000513676641, "rotation_box_production": 19.646500907809383, "star_box_production": 24.563665954491782, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.795394385326639, "efg_pct": 0.5125748502994012, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5481786133960047, "turnover_rate": 0.1752415622640048, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1607187808609105, "oreb_pct": 0.25526932084309134, "dreb_pct": 0.7494089834515366, "ft_rate": 0.33532934131736525, "opp_ft_rate": 0.3325499412455934, "pace": 102.22119587628866, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4802395209580838, "three_pct": 0.34413965087281795, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.48296122209165687, "opp_three_pct": 0.34793187347931875, "adjusted_net_rating": -4.440977872918039, "off_rating": 103.30538504734427, "def_rating": 112.01905388920088, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 13.8, "off_rating_rank": 28, "def_rating_rank": 20, "pace_rank": 17 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "values": { "record": 1.254844770674277, "strength": 0.9416167930178161, "adjusted_off_rating": 112.21940005169729, "adjusted_def_rating": 108.42351166959844, "prior_net_rating": 6.758505206185157, "retained_minutes_share": 0.820534223706177, "rotation_box_production": 20.242851862019762, "star_box_production": 25.254720275364246, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.9095508050220964, "efg_pct": 0.5426621160409556, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5099415204678363, "turnover_rate": 0.14965849738850945, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1717557251908397, "oreb_pct": 0.3182844243792325, "dreb_pct": 0.6990950226244343, "ft_rate": 0.28668941979522183, "opp_ft_rate": 0.26666666666666666, "pace": 98.53360824742268, "three_attempt_rate": 0.472127417519909, "three_pct": 0.3759036144578313, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.512280701754386, "opp_three_pct": 0.3378995433789954, "adjusted_net_rating": 3.7958883820988616, "off_rating": 115.50823623945361, "def_rating": 104.76094817195661, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 15.6, "off_rating_rank": 5, "def_rating_rank": 5, "pace_rank": 30 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "values": { "record": -0.522217812283558, "strength": -1.6232265075500938, "adjusted_off_rating": 105.10403265198418, "adjusted_def_rating": 111.66508096274093, "prior_net_rating": 4.075872265142354, "retained_minutes_share": 0.4783173795179862, "rotation_box_production": 18.799501670159984, "star_box_production": 22.277888030609724, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.7281777950758231, "efg_pct": 0.4791449426485923, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5634657836644592, "turnover_rate": 0.19351984960743115, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14652217184562644, "oreb_pct": 0.3235294117647059, "dreb_pct": 0.7772727272727272, "ft_rate": 0.2127215849843587, "opp_ft_rate": 0.27483443708609273, "pace": 98.65090909090911, "three_attempt_rate": 0.5119916579770595, "three_pct": 0.3075356415478615, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4304635761589404, "opp_three_pct": 0.4076923076923077, "adjusted_net_rating": -6.561048310756741, "off_rating": 100.16956024917984, "def_rating": 111.87290353496257, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 13.727272727272727, "off_rating_rank": 30, "def_rating_rank": 19, "pace_rank": 29 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "values": { "record": -1.5506105107545272, "strength": -1.8473187909935118, "adjusted_off_rating": 108.40491364796387, "adjusted_def_rating": 115.29213146079984, "prior_net_rating": -4.320032890639203, "retained_minutes_share": 0.649589896203818, "rotation_box_production": 20.110342223603553, "star_box_production": 24.243548368312574, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8199299752398638, "efg_pct": 0.48713235294117646, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5648038049940547, "turnover_rate": 0.15007555527955452, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13869051315489866, "oreb_pct": 0.2798165137614679, "dreb_pct": 0.6724565756823822, "ft_rate": 0.35661764705882354, "opp_ft_rate": 0.33055885850178357, "pace": 107.35333333333334, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4644607843137255, "three_pct": 0.2717678100263852, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.40309155766944116, "opp_three_pct": 0.3952802359882006, "adjusted_net_rating": -6.887217812835964, "off_rating": 104.94938831273674, "def_rating": 120.47444575544928, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 11.444444444444445, "off_rating_rank": 26, "def_rating_rank": 30, "pace_rank": 1 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "values": { "record": -0.1519964408340092, "strength": 0.162137910634085, "adjusted_off_rating": 112.09542126946495, "adjusted_def_rating": 111.55398696651952, "prior_net_rating": 3.258282252305996, "retained_minutes_share": 0.6395289782174829, "rotation_box_production": 21.663300846995938, "star_box_production": 26.288984032922414, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.7546496899251465, "efg_pct": 0.5494393476044852, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5179437439379243, "turnover_rate": 0.13341057103235204, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13077746765671353, "oreb_pct": 0.2448559670781893, "dreb_pct": 0.7284644194756554, "ft_rate": 0.27726809378185524, "opp_ft_rate": 0.24248302618816683, "pace": 102.60472795497186, "three_attempt_rate": 0.46687054026503566, "three_pct": 0.36681222707423583, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4267701260911736, "opp_three_pct": 0.35454545454545455, "adjusted_net_rating": 0.5414343029454405, "off_rating": 112.52128425228639, "def_rating": 111.02919233942457, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 15.272727272727273, "off_rating_rank": 10, "def_rating_rank": 16, "pace_rank": 12 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "values": { "record": 0.5884463020650886, "strength": 0.628829659606568, "adjusted_off_rating": 111.69209729419329, "adjusted_def_rating": 109.17611461425923, "prior_net_rating": -4.612530440412053, "retained_minutes_share": 0.5838870431893688, "rotation_box_production": 20.046189941630082, "star_box_production": 24.51160640693095, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.7946635306340779, "efg_pct": 0.5480868665977249, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5190133607399794, "turnover_rate": 0.15915355205832665, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.15204054414510534, "oreb_pct": 0.3, "dreb_pct": 0.7183673469387755, "ft_rate": 0.26990692864529475, "opp_ft_rate": 0.2816032887975334, "pace": 102.24545454545455, "three_attempt_rate": 0.40847983453981385, "three_pct": 0.34430379746835443, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.41521068859198357, "opp_three_pct": 0.31683168316831684, "adjusted_net_rating": 2.5159826799340514, "off_rating": 112.3855250288966, "def_rating": 107.85098248421801, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 12.363636363636363, "off_rating_rank": 12, "def_rating_rank": 10, "pace_rank": 16 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "values": { "record": 0.25936063855437863, "strength": 0.20487255423105552, "adjusted_off_rating": 111.67978290051137, "adjusted_def_rating": 111.04068274241428, "prior_net_rating": 4.368096664444837, "retained_minutes_share": 0.7218764865783215, "rotation_box_production": 22.171318125319637, "star_box_production": 36.733200476650595, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8570115303072103, "efg_pct": 0.5474308300395256, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5404907975460123, "turnover_rate": 0.14092946868480624, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14980691553109327, "oreb_pct": 0.24533333333333332, "dreb_pct": 0.7083333333333334, "ft_rate": 0.31357048748353095, "opp_ft_rate": 0.20245398773006135, "pace": 98.98324942791763, "three_attempt_rate": 0.37812911725955206, "three_pct": 0.3519163763066202, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4392638036809816, "opp_three_pct": 0.34916201117318435, "adjusted_net_rating": 0.6391001580970883, "off_rating": 113.40938346131652, "def_rating": 112.63260686226641, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 11.222222222222221, "off_rating_rank": 9, "def_rating_rank": 21, "pace_rank": 28 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "values": { "record": 0.8476012620797727, "strength": 0.8644984976391226, "adjusted_off_rating": 110.88086206103333, "adjusted_def_rating": 107.49315030367359, "prior_net_rating": 6.668085285421904, "retained_minutes_share": 0.8037175009997733, "rotation_box_production": 20.509179985585156, "star_box_production": 26.414969772071014, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8826908531229763, "efg_pct": 0.545664739884393, "opp_efg_pct": 0.4970896391152503, "turnover_rate": 0.14320704776201953, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1777742661873346, "oreb_pct": 0.25635103926096997, "dreb_pct": 0.7183406113537117, "ft_rate": 0.2751445086705202, "opp_ft_rate": 0.29452852153667053, "pace": 101.25199999999998, "three_attempt_rate": 0.43121387283236995, "three_pct": 0.3699731903485255, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4190919674039581, "opp_three_pct": 0.32222222222222224, "adjusted_net_rating": 3.387711757359735, "off_rating": 111.3064433295145, "def_rating": 103.30660135108444, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 13.8, "off_rating_rank": 14, "def_rating_rank": 3, "pace_rank": 23 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "values": { "record": 0.9586676735146376, "strength": 1.1834762744656215, "adjusted_off_rating": 113.72311965773832, "adjusted_def_rating": 108.94827650504696, "prior_net_rating": -0.31999765765150046, "retained_minutes_share": 0.6849683864845558, "rotation_box_production": 20.814475106271985, "star_box_production": 27.424526776798754, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8697970863683663, "efg_pct": 0.5721052631578948, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5269709543568465, "turnover_rate": 0.1605008335402405, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.16759479303373181, "oreb_pct": 0.29782608695652174, "dreb_pct": 0.7231404958677686, "ft_rate": 0.3042105263157895, "opp_ft_rate": 0.2717842323651452, "pace": 101.55827392120074, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4726315789473684, "three_pct": 0.40311804008908686, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.42738589211618255, "opp_three_pct": 0.33980582524271846, "adjusted_net_rating": 4.774843152691364, "off_rating": 117.4050296172809, "def_rating": 108.44890575674815, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 16.454545454545453, "off_rating_rank": 2, "def_rating_rank": 11, "pace_rank": 22 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "values": { "record": 0.9586676735146376, "strength": 1.3833807635410302, "adjusted_off_rating": 113.41933258659405, "adjusted_def_rating": 107.84672192235791, "prior_net_rating": 4.384390090325891, "retained_minutes_share": 0.7531172069825436, "rotation_box_production": 20.68591866486697, "star_box_production": 26.497564399332823, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8685696560480146, "efg_pct": 0.5498949579831933, "opp_efg_pct": 0.524008350730689, "turnover_rate": 0.15279672578444747, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.15734424738517508, "oreb_pct": 0.3157894736842105, "dreb_pct": 0.7305263157894737, "ft_rate": 0.2857142857142857, "opp_ft_rate": 0.23799582463465555, "pace": 99.95454545454545, "three_attempt_rate": 0.3949579831932773, "three_pct": 0.375, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.42693110647181626, "opp_three_pct": 0.31295843520782396, "adjusted_net_rating": 5.572610664236144, "off_rating": 115.50704865848112, "def_rating": 106.41200545702593, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 12.818181818181818, "off_rating_rank": 6, "def_rating_rank": 8, "pace_rank": 26 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "values": { "record": -0.8924391837331069, "strength": -0.5833227405576086, "adjusted_off_rating": 108.79700520942754, "adjusted_def_rating": 111.15674624138511, "prior_net_rating": -6.624516654156633, "retained_minutes_share": 0.7555875861043976, "rotation_box_production": 19.558793340642335, "star_box_production": 23.72433653822671, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.7487019730010385, "efg_pct": 0.541095890410959, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5350609756097561, "turnover_rate": 0.14538469671871143, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14450357734465866, "oreb_pct": 0.1971252566735113, "dreb_pct": 0.7272727272727273, "ft_rate": 0.2781875658587987, "opp_ft_rate": 0.2764227642276423, "pace": 103.17454545454547, "three_attempt_rate": 0.43730242360379346, "three_pct": 0.3349397590361446, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4329268292682927, "opp_three_pct": 0.3591549295774648, "adjusted_net_rating": -2.35974103195756, "off_rating": 107.93712332146758, "def_rating": 111.63782469248933, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 12.636363636363637, "off_rating_rank": 22, "def_rating_rank": 18, "pace_rank": 7 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "values": { "record": -1.0981177234273007, "strength": -0.29712343656868223, "adjusted_off_rating": 109.75420752174242, "adjusted_def_rating": 110.99417642435674, "prior_net_rating": 0.8018526705490232, "retained_minutes_share": 0.5154877395897802, "rotation_box_production": 18.11478478449102, "star_box_production": 22.73167176401958, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8386394735127386, "efg_pct": 0.5466491458607096, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5581841432225064, "turnover_rate": 0.18516126254144596, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.156095250398312, "oreb_pct": 0.257372654155496, "dreb_pct": 0.7139107611548556, "ft_rate": 0.2943495400788436, "opp_ft_rate": 0.3030690537084399, "pace": 102.03240274599543, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4283837056504599, "three_pct": 0.38650306748466257, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3887468030690537, "opp_three_pct": 0.3519736842105263, "adjusted_net_rating": -1.2399689026143172, "off_rating": 108.94371958833914, "def_rating": 112.81918787409033, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 14.0, "off_rating_rank": 20, "def_rating_rank": 22, "pace_rank": 19 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "values": { "record": 1.3905926068724448, "strength": 1.1117534634870054, "adjusted_off_rating": 114.89453688368789, "adjusted_def_rating": 110.56559862759653, "prior_net_rating": 1.4553723179880045, "retained_minutes_share": 0.41053511705685614, "rotation_box_production": 21.374787806840573, "star_box_production": 32.482904638202974, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8598361734919107, "efg_pct": 0.5917338709677419, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5450145208131656, "turnover_rate": 0.1638121188529908, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1808420916050344, "oreb_pct": 0.2788671023965142, "dreb_pct": 0.6866537717601547, "ft_rate": 0.36693548387096775, "opp_ft_rate": 0.3213939980638916, "pace": 102.75999999999999, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4415322580645161, "three_pct": 0.3835616438356164, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.47337850919651503, "opp_three_pct": 0.37627811860940696, "adjusted_net_rating": 4.328938256091367, "off_rating": 118.80433372258986, "def_rating": 111.34358375502791, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 14.0, "off_rating_rank": 1, "def_rating_rank": 17, "pace_rank": 10 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "values": { "record": 0.8476012620797727, "strength": 0.74143898873649, "adjusted_off_rating": 111.99744391873577, "adjusted_def_rating": 109.08030183698146, "prior_net_rating": -4.981424625094801, "retained_minutes_share": 0.6297315863121742, "rotation_box_production": 20.485146620632314, "star_box_production": 25.429783038432785, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8337692474570321, "efg_pct": 0.5491071428571429, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5179171332586786, "turnover_rate": 0.16243183663998145, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14212785705998376, "oreb_pct": 0.29698375870069604, "dreb_pct": 0.7537154989384289, "ft_rate": 0.25669642857142855, "opp_ft_rate": 0.2732362821948488, "pace": 102.36173195876289, "three_attempt_rate": 0.43973214285714285, "three_pct": 0.38578680203045684, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4176931690929451, "opp_three_pct": 0.3297587131367292, "adjusted_net_rating": 2.917142081754313, "off_rating": 113.99234249912983, "def_rating": 107.12766368874966, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 15.2, "off_rating_rank": 7, "def_rating_rank": 9, "pace_rank": 14 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "values": { "record": -0.3741292637037384, "strength": -0.548121017135681, "adjusted_off_rating": 110.00298170805833, "adjusted_def_rating": 112.04814744662693, "prior_net_rating": 1.8928145450294434, "retained_minutes_share": 0.5629084967320261, "rotation_box_production": 21.128828742581234, "star_box_production": 33.15745149167616, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8446166998142297, "efg_pct": 0.5433815350389322, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5797101449275363, "turnover_rate": 0.14695354007309996, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.16390971777384228, "oreb_pct": 0.2288888888888889, "dreb_pct": 0.7464788732394366, "ft_rate": 0.2803114571746385, "opp_ft_rate": 0.2463768115942029, "pace": 105.06160824742267, "three_attempt_rate": 0.44160177975528364, "three_pct": 0.34005037783375314, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.463768115942029, "opp_three_pct": 0.3942307692307692, "adjusted_net_rating": -2.0451657385686035, "off_rating": 109.08474320810883, "def_rating": 114.07739553110517, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 13.5, "off_rating_rank": 19, "def_rating_rank": 25, "pace_rank": 3 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "values": { "record": -1.5958597894872497, "strength": -1.574855912565949, "adjusted_off_rating": 108.00491550196868, "adjusted_def_rating": 114.19619618329945, "prior_net_rating": -5.574643460956975, "retained_minutes_share": 0.45001038205980076, "rotation_box_production": 19.6417152477271, "star_box_production": 25.686008318153785, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8690816587954531, "efg_pct": 0.5154525386313465, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5421558164354322, "turnover_rate": 0.16330656920115869, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.12345198981278069, "oreb_pct": 0.2951167728237792, "dreb_pct": 0.6892177589852009, "ft_rate": 0.2251655629139073, "opp_ft_rate": 0.28068303094983993, "pace": 102.87400000000001, "three_attempt_rate": 0.48123620309050774, "three_pct": 0.3348623853211009, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4407684098185699, "opp_three_pct": 0.35351089588377727, "adjusted_net_rating": -6.191280681330767, "off_rating": 105.37161965122382, "def_rating": 118.20285008845772, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 14.6, "off_rating_rank": 25, "def_rating_rank": 28, "pace_rank": 9 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "values": { "record": 0.9586676735146376, "strength": 1.4372007464219745, "adjusted_off_rating": 112.0548160799705, "adjusted_def_rating": 106.40543904492614, "prior_net_rating": 2.4803034876560224, "retained_minutes_share": 0.5533222303487453, "rotation_box_production": 20.258979963326198, "star_box_production": 24.081396367022048, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8380159386085243, "efg_pct": 0.5534465534465535, "opp_efg_pct": 0.49743062692702983, "turnover_rate": 0.15346569384032552, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.15872737477199383, "oreb_pct": 0.31809145129224653, "dreb_pct": 0.7377690802348337, "ft_rate": 0.28471528471528473, "opp_ft_rate": 0.27852004110996914, "pace": 102.69298311444653, "three_attempt_rate": 0.42857142857142855, "three_pct": 0.372960372960373, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.39157245632065774, "opp_three_pct": 0.32020997375328086, "adjusted_net_rating": 5.649377035044356, "off_rating": 113.91539217061877, "def_rating": 103.21664094289324, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 14.545454545454545, "off_rating_rank": 8, "def_rating_rank": 2, "pace_rank": 11 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "values": { "record": -0.522217812283558, "strength": -0.6834806711775617, "adjusted_off_rating": 110.29067675402497, "adjusted_def_rating": 113.20785422773702, "prior_net_rating": -3.8262036631556313, "retained_minutes_share": 0.8664000000000001, "rotation_box_production": 20.181841442332153, "star_box_production": 25.191059341192826, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8475056116859574, "efg_pct": 0.5277486910994764, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5607142857142857, "turnover_rate": 0.15574191340065033, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.15317473900393633, "oreb_pct": 0.2468354430379747, "dreb_pct": 0.7286012526096033, "ft_rate": 0.35706806282722514, "opp_ft_rate": 0.32040816326530613, "pace": 103.30165745856354, "three_attempt_rate": 0.3225130890052356, "three_pct": 0.3246753246753247, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.44285714285714284, "opp_three_pct": 0.3387096774193548, "adjusted_net_rating": -2.917177473712039, "off_rating": 110.55964401848364, "def_rating": 115.18055793256887, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 9.090909090909092, "off_rating_rank": 16, "def_rating_rank": 26, "pace_rank": 6 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "values": { "record": 0.25936063855437863, "strength": 0.47189373258829254, "adjusted_off_rating": 110.19655626699605, "adjusted_def_rating": 108.1796530485268, "prior_net_rating": 5.419069847046817, "retained_minutes_share": 0.9091145076403628, "rotation_box_production": 20.189010494574173, "star_box_production": 28.95920495167101, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8431104017108255, "efg_pct": 0.5105721393034826, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5123216601815823, "turnover_rate": 0.14871301742066775, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1308227296106626, "oreb_pct": 0.3226600985221675, "dreb_pct": 0.769620253164557, "ft_rate": 0.26616915422885573, "opp_ft_rate": 0.2697795071335927, "pace": 99.3711111111111, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4527363184079602, "three_pct": 0.3598901098901099, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.47470817120622566, "opp_three_pct": 0.3333333333333333, "adjusted_net_rating": 2.0169032184692504, "off_rating": 110.58434152559428, "def_rating": 104.88181228615515, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 14.555555555555555, "off_rating_rank": 15, "def_rating_rank": 6, "pace_rank": 27 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "values": { "record": 1.254844770674277, "strength": 1.1439909228754142, "adjusted_off_rating": 110.11314787293067, "adjusted_def_rating": 105.78947780347791, "prior_net_rating": 9.52424939357013, "retained_minutes_share": 0.6113986410006566, "rotation_box_production": 20.832199272680494, "star_box_production": 30.91325740806254, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.7699455186605386, "efg_pct": 0.5186199342825849, "opp_efg_pct": 0.4844961240310077, "turnover_rate": 0.1293762496569569, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14505821931234564, "oreb_pct": 0.2626728110599078, "dreb_pct": 0.7371663244353183, "ft_rate": 0.23001095290251916, "opp_ft_rate": 0.2369878183831672, "pace": 102.028, "three_attempt_rate": 0.3548740416210296, "three_pct": 0.3487654320987654, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4728682170542636, "opp_three_pct": 0.3255269320843091, "adjusted_net_rating": 4.323670069452768, "off_rating": 109.96981220841337, "def_rating": 102.12882738071902, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 11.3, "off_rating_rank": 17, "def_rating_rank": 1, "pace_rank": 20 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "values": { "record": -1.0981177234273007, "strength": -0.8965076350821006, "adjusted_off_rating": 108.19008764238914, "adjusted_def_rating": 111.70487224225128, "prior_net_rating": 0.6295256805151557, "retained_minutes_share": 0.9622664173000102, "rotation_box_production": 19.045966746617548, "star_box_production": 22.084688385222044, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8088000261544137, "efg_pct": 0.5254569190600522, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5559796437659033, "turnover_rate": 0.17425397516880853, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14593770420387714, "oreb_pct": 0.26735218508997427, "dreb_pct": 0.7378378378378379, "ft_rate": 0.2754569190600522, "opp_ft_rate": 0.28498727735368956, "pace": 100.85491990846683, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4699738903394256, "three_pct": 0.3416666666666667, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3905852417302799, "opp_three_pct": 0.3778501628664495, "adjusted_net_rating": -3.5147845998621334, "off_rating": 104.87911130472664, "def_rating": 113.91853626660857, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 13.666666666666666, "off_rating_rank": 27, "def_rating_rank": 24, "pace_rank": 25 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "values": { "record": 1.3288890449641866, "strength": 0.20713943215378475, "adjusted_off_rating": 108.98725174929746, "adjusted_def_rating": 108.17781634542784, "prior_net_rating": -0.21326854478747392, "retained_minutes_share": 0.47960033305578686, "rotation_box_production": 21.073537684870267, "star_box_production": 25.942921162539076, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8795677170679513, "efg_pct": 0.5107361963190185, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5099476439790576, "turnover_rate": 0.12592894769514554, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.15608094925595503, "oreb_pct": 0.2263779527559055, "dreb_pct": 0.7327935222672065, "ft_rate": 0.29243353783231085, "opp_ft_rate": 0.29842931937172773, "pace": 102.51090909090908, "three_attempt_rate": 0.38139059304703476, "three_pct": 0.34048257372654156, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.41047120418848165, "opp_three_pct": 0.3163265306122449, "adjusted_net_rating": 0.8094354038696143, "off_rating": 108.2811585463188, "def_rating": 105.26595839023786, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 11.545454545454545, "off_rating_rank": 21, "def_rating_rank": 7, "pace_rank": 13 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "values": { "record": -0.6456249361000744, "strength": -0.6721126178172698, "adjusted_off_rating": 110.38880306399959, "adjusted_def_rating": 113.14422203114648, "prior_net_rating": 1.450683501557485, "retained_minutes_share": 0.7737104825291182, "rotation_box_production": 19.40377834331153, "star_box_production": 23.48266966024366, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8933277880444597, "efg_pct": 0.5353089533417402, "opp_efg_pct": 0.556615776081425, "turnover_rate": 0.1386443661971831, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.16615316901408453, "oreb_pct": 0.25252525252525254, "dreb_pct": 0.6535433070866141, "ft_rate": 0.23329129886506936, "opp_ft_rate": 0.3244274809160305, "pace": 100.97777777777776, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4047919293820933, "three_pct": 0.3582554517133956, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4312977099236641, "opp_three_pct": 0.3805309734513274, "adjusted_net_rating": -2.7554189671468956, "off_rating": 109.48503521126761, "def_rating": 117.84771126760565, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 12.777777777777779, "off_rating_rank": 18, "def_rating_rank": 27, "pace_rank": 24 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "values": { "record": 0.7118534258816048, "strength": 0.7591672795290205, "adjusted_off_rating": 112.84103221931426, "adjusted_def_rating": 109.77585336836137, "prior_net_rating": -0.15797372611235194, "retained_minutes_share": 0.7690828498426008, "rotation_box_production": 20.299768174131255, "star_box_production": 27.15344570767128, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8774522268454308, "efg_pct": 0.5619295958279009, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5152477763659467, "turnover_rate": 0.16399456228556633, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1370217724359666, "oreb_pct": 0.29521276595744683, "dreb_pct": 0.7381546134663342, "ft_rate": 0.37157757496740546, "opp_ft_rate": 0.32147395171537485, "pace": 102.98444444444443, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4980443285528031, "three_pct": 0.35602094240837695, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4218551461245235, "opp_three_pct": 0.32228915662650603, "adjusted_net_rating": 3.065178850952894, "off_rating": 115.87510519388043, "def_rating": 110.48054722396049, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 15.11111111111111, "off_rating_rank": 3, "def_rating_rank": 14, "pace_rank": 8 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "values": { "record": -1.5958597894872497, "strength": -1.3789553733290247, "adjusted_off_rating": 108.21682744415091, "adjusted_def_rating": 113.50023817815325, "prior_net_rating": -8.401961443546295, "retained_minutes_share": 0.5241135655621636, "rotation_box_production": 19.16415925326283, "star_box_production": 26.040258214061023, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8007997218358832, "efg_pct": 0.5251716247139588, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5793465577596266, "turnover_rate": 0.16534199686720427, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14020227804529017, "oreb_pct": 0.24311926605504589, "dreb_pct": 0.7432098765432099, "ft_rate": 0.2597254004576659, "opp_ft_rate": 0.34889148191365227, "pace": 103.422, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4096109839816934, "three_pct": 0.33519553072625696, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4340723453908985, "opp_three_pct": 0.3790322580645161, "adjusted_net_rating": -5.283410734002336, "off_rating": 105.49012782580108, "def_rating": 118.35006091547253, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 12.0, "off_rating_rank": 24, "def_rating_rank": 29, "pace_rank": 5 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "values": { "record": 1.3288890449641866, "strength": 1.5273096542542346, "adjusted_off_rating": 113.47136062853893, "adjusted_def_rating": 107.36206595196767, "prior_net_rating": 7.1925541899474705, "retained_minutes_share": 0.9766081871345027, "rotation_box_production": 21.73023823716746, "star_box_production": 36.641058283092235, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8494580085982942, "efg_pct": 0.5283864541832669, "opp_efg_pct": 0.49848637739656915, "turnover_rate": 0.12672586448308254, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13736020276138317, "oreb_pct": 0.296969696969697, "dreb_pct": 0.7586872586872587, "ft_rate": 0.301792828685259, "opp_ft_rate": 0.23511604439959638, "pace": 101.62131332082552, "three_attempt_rate": 0.3884462151394422, "three_pct": 0.34615384615384615, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3632694248234107, "opp_three_pct": 0.36666666666666664, "adjusted_net_rating": 6.109294676571265, "off_rating": 115.73704826217188, "def_rating": 104.3051346129987, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 12.272727272727273, "off_rating_rank": 4, "def_rating_rank": 4, "pace_rank": 21 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "values": { "record": 0.0331142448907653, "strength": 0.3035057785877803, "adjusted_off_rating": 111.08204102072605, "adjusted_def_rating": 110.28924990086705, "prior_net_rating": 2.1933367342866648, "retained_minutes_share": 0.8817618570474284, "rotation_box_production": 19.601951970591955, "star_box_production": 24.804892811633067, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.7760220396760346, "efg_pct": 0.52, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5559006211180124, "turnover_rate": 0.1399154717563734, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.19298685759499778, "oreb_pct": 0.32599118942731276, "dreb_pct": 0.7150537634408602, "ft_rate": 0.29945945945945945, "opp_ft_rate": 0.36645962732919257, "pace": 103.63399999999999, "three_attempt_rate": 0.38054054054054054, "three_pct": 0.3181818181818182, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4248447204968944, "opp_three_pct": 0.3654970760233918, "adjusted_net_rating": 0.7927911198590079, "off_rating": 112.51133797788371, "def_rating": 109.32705482756626, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 11.2, "off_rating_rank": 11, "def_rating_rank": 12, "pace_rank": 4 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "values": { "record": -1.5958597894872497, "strength": -1.099983808353451, "adjusted_off_rating": 106.42703835235551, "adjusted_def_rating": 110.67497280888135, "prior_net_rating": -6.845274686717438, "retained_minutes_share": 0.5964749536178108, "rotation_box_production": 19.254884772012517, "star_box_production": 23.540845577769957, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.8667440807730914, "efg_pct": 0.49542857142857144, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5240274599542334, "turnover_rate": 0.16658369394554437, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14552138781449853, "oreb_pct": 0.25840336134453784, "dreb_pct": 0.744874715261959, "ft_rate": 0.28914285714285715, "opp_ft_rate": 0.35812356979405036, "pace": 102.32032653061225, "three_attempt_rate": 0.40914285714285714, "three_pct": 0.32122905027932963, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.391304347826087, "opp_three_pct": 0.3567251461988304, "adjusted_net_rating": -4.247934456525844, "off_rating": 101.67349595986674, "def_rating": 112.87481331137748, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 11.5, "off_rating_rank": 29, "def_rating_rank": 23, "pace_rank": 15 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "values": { "record": -0.522217812283558, "strength": -0.8633867825569306, "adjusted_off_rating": 107.718302389537, "adjusted_def_rating": 111.08956842841894, "prior_net_rating": -10.016751527674906, "retained_minutes_share": 0.5850894415357766, "rotation_box_production": 19.730283719363676, "star_box_production": 26.592795434108695, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.7706775700934579, "efg_pct": 0.5138297872340426, "opp_efg_pct": 0.5115830115830116, "turnover_rate": 0.1458555674137318, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13874066168623267, "oreb_pct": 0.2286902286902287, "dreb_pct": 0.6942800788954635, "ft_rate": 0.2946808510638298, "opp_ft_rate": 0.21042471042471042, "pace": 102.21818181818182, "three_attempt_rate": 0.37340425531914895, "three_pct": 0.2962962962962963, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4198841698841699, "opp_three_pct": 0.31264367816091954, "adjusted_net_rating": -3.3712660388819295, "off_rating": 105.74528637495554, "def_rating": 110.9035930273924, "pace_game_coverage": 1.0, "three_made_per_game": 9.454545454545455, "off_rating_rank": 23, "def_rating_rank": 15, "pace_rank": 18 } } ] }, "intervalMethodology": { "method": "Season-level Bayesian bootstrap of title-model coefficients", "draws": 512, "weighting": "Independent Exp(1) weights for earlier whole seasons, normalized to sum to the number of training seasons; ridge penalty held fixed.", "quantiles": { "lower95": 0.025, "lower80": 0.1, "upper80": 0.9, "upper95": 0.975 }, "scope": "Conditional on the selected feature set, ridge penalty and observed target-season features.", "limitations": [ "Omits uncertainty in team ratings, feature measurements, injuries, future roster changes, calibration and model selection.", "Not validated frequentist coverage for the true championship probability; binary outcomes do not identify an individual probability interval.", "Marginal team intervals are not simultaneous portfolio bounds, and their endpoints do not sum to 100%.", "Uniform baseline has no fitted coefficients; its intervals are not estimated." ] }, "limitations": [ "Feature/model choices reuse inspected historical seasons; these comparisons are exploratory, with no multiplicity adjustment.", "Only complete common-coverage seasons enter advanced training and evaluation. Frozen legacy forecasts retain their longer training history but are evaluated on the same outer test years.", "The past-only selector's score evaluates a changing selection procedure. The lowest fixed-model score on this table is a retrospective choice, not an untouched confirmation of superiority.", "Player features are box-score production and observed participation/rotation proxies, not EPM, medical injury status, expected future availability or causal player impact.", "Omits uncertainty in team ratings, feature measurements, injuries, future roster changes, calibration and model selection.", "Not validated frequentist coverage for the true championship probability; binary outcomes do not identify an individual probability interval.", "Marginal team intervals are not simultaneous portfolio bounds, and their endpoints do not sum to 100%.", "Uniform baseline has no fitted coefficients; its intervals are not estimated.", "Historical box scores were retrieved retrospectively; corrections may differ from what was published on the historical date.", "Only regular-season games dated strictly before each cutoff enter current-season features; previous-season regular games form priors. No final current-season aggregates are used.", "Possessions are estimated as FGA + 0.44*FTA - offensive rebounds + turnovers, averaged across both teams; ratings and pace are estimates, not NBA official possession counts.", "Player box production is a simple counting-stat proxy, not EPM, RAPM or a causal player impact estimate. It does not isolate teammate/opponent effects.", "Availability is represented only by observed recent minutes/rotation continuity. Historical injury reports, future returns and players absent all season are not modeled.", "Past player/team games with incomplete player point totals are excluded from player-production features; coverage is reported. DNP reasons are not used because source reliability varies.", "Current games are completed at retrieval with Eastern scheduled dates before cutoff. Completion times before midnight are not certified." ], "protocol": { "version": "advanced-intraseason-v1", "declaredBeforeScoring": "2026-11-10", "minimumTrainingSeasons": 10, "minimumInnerTrainingSeasons": 5, "minimumCommonHistoricalSnapshots": 15, "titleRidgeGrid": [ 0.1, 1.0, 10.0, 100.0 ], "excludedSeasons": [ 2020 ], "groupPriority": [ "adjusted_efficiency", "prior_roster", "player_availability", "four_factors", "pace_shooting" ], "featureNormalization": "Center and scale each observed feature within its own as-of league; no championship outcomes enter normalization.", "selection": "Each historical forecast selects its feature family and ridge using only earlier forward validation seasons at the identical month/day. The current forecast repeats that rule through the last completed season.", "ablation": "Refit full-minus-group and baseline-plus-group candidates, with separate earlier-only ridge tuning, on one common complete-data cohort.", "legacyComparison": "Frozen original forecasts are rescored on the identical advanced test years. Their longer training history is retained and disclosed.", "intervalDraws": 512, "bootstrapReplicates": 5000, "seed": 1973, "status": "Exploratory reuse and feature/model selection on historical seasons, not an untouched prospective holdout." }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sportsdataverse/hoopR-nba-data/main/LICENSE.md", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:47.037403+00:00", "sha256": "6ad49a8be39eb9f8cca31f3ee127972bfb935a63d834e75bcccb9d29ed2443c2", "bytes": 1061, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/LICENSE.md" }, { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sportsdataverse/hoopR-nba-data/main/README.md", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:47.321110+00:00", "sha256": "ddb80213b0af503ec02a5a124c85666d6acc9769c9670f8bf421a57f164ef919", "bytes": 12506, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/README.md" }, { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/main/LICENSE", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:20:46.608143+00:00", "sha256": "9c3898cce6957255c63911737a6441daf7ed70c445381b8a7f32b75a28123ea6", "bytes": 1072, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/release-repository-LICENSE" }, { "url": "https://api.github.com/repos/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/tags/espn_nba_team_boxscores", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:47.857601+00:00", "sha256": "fa232626d29e37221923f6b3ce256ab057f6f1a5050bd4ce264d9553a7b26a88", "bytes": 174223, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team-release.json" }, { "url": "https://api.github.com/repos/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/tags/espn_nba_player_boxscores", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:48.443195+00:00", "sha256": "e498a46da0814c26de69225e1250457708f97290fedc112f1a478431e0630953", "bytes": 174966, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player-release.json" }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_1994.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:49.732947+00:00", "sha256": "587b04f00ca7743aa79d0cf9cdd519160c410a4e79f4289092d29024317c3723", "bytes": 109162, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_1994.parquet", "rows": 2358, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_1995.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:49.711730+00:00", "sha256": "9e4d92b5713bcbbff2b5053be3335d85b7a25046b57d3da92989ade4521ad763", "bytes": 112020, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_1995.parquet", "rows": 2358, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_1996.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:49.732947+00:00", "sha256": "dcd86b0593c7915ade09ef1a9d143e8fa3c8e600633a38a38e39758f4f579547", "bytes": 111617, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_1996.parquet", "rows": 2346, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_1997.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:49.707558+00:00", "sha256": "727e9149f5307b6f1c8593d0c543d92de0c24298e308e31fb82ea63c9bbfb892", "bytes": 117132, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_1997.parquet", "rows": 2500, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_1998.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:51.455080+00:00", "sha256": "cd1503d619b02e278882bce2fc9f761120d6a640a454a17c8cdb4f654880e043", "bytes": 117334, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_1998.parquet", "rows": 2510, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_1999.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:51.372739+00:00", "sha256": "ddd829c92998e623a1991de02a9884eabaa7869848fbe2f057d0a353c764f198", "bytes": 84135, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_1999.parquet", "rows": 1582, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2000.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:51.319234+00:00", "sha256": "ed9ecf571893206939f989d31360a859301afdc2ff34b4631e174a9a27f93c24", "bytes": 150807, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2000.parquet", "rows": 3372, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2001.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:51.378841+00:00", "sha256": "7202efe6e374ca84433f4d43406a6b685b3d20da5df10975bb555a78c78c2504", "bytes": 120343, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2001.parquet", "rows": 2500, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2002.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:52.363407+00:00", "sha256": "524ff216be1b1ac3b62ec596d4f23aededacd9df8756739143db8f7afd995191", "bytes": 133899, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2002.parquet", "rows": 2520, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2003.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:52.754395+00:00", "sha256": "53edb2d03e54ce812065014a20df09600a95522e990ddcf7c880af67320261ad", "bytes": 135746, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2003.parquet", "rows": 2554, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2004.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:52.777934+00:00", "sha256": "1c1998f46fd8c385ce43618a691cbb7920d3b0bb2ef127b19af3076781668027", "bytes": 134833, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2004.parquet", "rows": 2542, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2005.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:52.818083+00:00", "sha256": "5c38c3b98ec5dca1cadd14930f5bc0d78f99fb8e22ae9775180fea1aa117cbea", "bytes": 140626, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2005.parquet", "rows": 2628, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2006.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:53.448537+00:00", "sha256": "667d2e39379507f8c24957ea5095f7cbdd43eb46d31a333ebedfab19ae3cabe9", "bytes": 141984, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2006.parquet", "rows": 2638, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2007.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:53.889977+00:00", "sha256": "b669e76bd7d83a139c093cca150cbf3abf1790bce86eb1fa164e6e8ff576c561", "bytes": 141263, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2007.parquet", "rows": 2618, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2008.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:54.002047+00:00", "sha256": "aa38c444cf6055f2cf6da403fa0d790ab5dc2f5f0b9e81a1f5f7236e196ecd01", "bytes": 141107, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2008.parquet", "rows": 2632, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2009.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:54.023068+00:00", "sha256": "454d93b1c6147410153abb9c513d238f5747c62b1c4e167e8db317f479c84d93", "bytes": 145305, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2009.parquet", "rows": 2630, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2010.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:54.640590+00:00", "sha256": "0094345142b2487440062e896c8a6bdf0ae7a6d4b93be9d4f8c359d06f603053", "bytes": 145527, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2010.parquet", "rows": 2624, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2011.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:55.186788+00:00", "sha256": "31a38e205883fedab615d9bf2cfc46a88eb5b04b5110502ce9e8162dbd50efc0", "bytes": 144814, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2011.parquet", "rows": 2622, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2012.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:54.965061+00:00", "sha256": "d317026a0e20f483e9857a964910230b2877c0dcd50ee6c8d8d4a7c7116e0086", "bytes": 125230, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2012.parquet", "rows": 2148, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2013.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:55.191870+00:00", "sha256": "0543f6014cda5d92bb4b76cd6b854a72ddee4d7a00b4720b51fde6e6a5ac4b42", "bytes": 143034, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2013.parquet", "rows": 2620, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2014.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:55.720099+00:00", "sha256": "37ffb708c361ef57c985089fd45cd7ba7bc51b503e049f0dac0296af45b9b1ee", "bytes": 143752, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2014.parquet", "rows": 2638, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2015.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:55.891847+00:00", "sha256": "2d977cd788ca91c5eb9027fc8661afc8b488fde04ad7131421ede0e5f96f3576", "bytes": 143234, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2015.parquet", "rows": 2624, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "largest_lead" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2016.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:56.205932+00:00", "sha256": "a5bf9e3fab17f26fe34623b42688674f817df0a19a6026ee0728cae7e942917f", "bytes": 145763, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2016.parquet", "rows": 2634, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2017.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:56.329220+00:00", "sha256": "c296120a0c98238ee23cc83d7ffe849e2ce87fcdd85a82721a24d3ca469783ea", "bytes": 144516, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2017.parquet", "rows": 2618, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2018.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:56.819360+00:00", "sha256": "9e58866f324bb49c880db4b57e323d0bb5c3d94f9006f55e63d5337cbbcdd4ca", "bytes": 127967, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2018.parquet", "rows": 2626, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2019.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:56.871844+00:00", "sha256": "3f3f15ccfd1f676e0aaf5bfbdb8fd5cd69f9a21a4961cd4f6337d857593c788a", "bytes": 152257, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2019.parquet", "rows": 2628, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2020.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:57.223512+00:00", "sha256": "e96bec73056f08ce21bce63ca6d329fc1cf62d7229608d949bfce102df01b56a", "bytes": 136914, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2020.parquet", "rows": 2290, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2021.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:57.365681+00:00", "sha256": "56e59fe9062942933c708ae4ba2172ec4dda055de9c6a3409f0816ac363fdd58", "bytes": 123317, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2021.parquet", "rows": 2332, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2022.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:58.087635+00:00", "sha256": "f8185936836a81240d6f170ec7afeab47e3e736a718fe2c9f72999e681434b7f", "bytes": 136075, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2022.parquet", "rows": 2648, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2023.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:57.917978+00:00", "sha256": "b86bb087fe57eeeacead4e27965a20d1e67fdb39a3ee2ca36294a0b7d014e9b6", "bytes": 136082, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2023.parquet", "rows": 2642, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2024.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:58.231708+00:00", "sha256": "5e4d1b7a2ccc287f212f65888dcd674e370adec8a0e32d7ae0825eecacaaa8a9", "bytes": 135889, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2024.parquet", "rows": 2640, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2025.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:58.428061+00:00", "sha256": "f735bf3b743618e50987f3e3e296734e1dba43c450a21af848d7c34f23bf2aee", "bytes": 136502, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2025.parquet", "rows": 2648, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2026.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:58.880718+00:00", "sha256": "db846dfb39b0f75eee50ad91b1b5b7a7a62dd31d3ec0bb066a0a3bb08e366f7e", "bytes": 140628, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2026.parquet", "rows": 2652, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score", "lead_changes", "lead_percentage" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_team_boxscores/team_box_2027.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:59.017824+00:00", "sha256": "ea828a6cac8766a8dbee935a9e4ff219c384a868775a55600360a8208f432ca9", "bytes": 41469, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/team_box_2027.parquet", "rows": 308, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "team_id", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_location", "team_name", "team_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_short_display_name", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "team_logo", "team_home_away", "team_score", "team_winner", "assists", "blocks", "defensive_rebounds", "fast_break_points", "field_goal_pct", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "flagrant_fouls", "fouls", "free_throw_pct", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "largest_lead", "lead_changes", "lead_percentage", "offensive_rebounds", "points_in_paint", "steals", "team_turnovers", "technical_fouls", "three_point_field_goal_pct", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "total_rebounds", "total_technical_fouls", "total_turnovers", "turnover_points", "turnovers", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_uid", "opponent_team_slug", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_short_display_name", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_1994.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:59.237631+00:00", "sha256": "72a8d9750c704b170189ecdc32e88e01555693f36fa681dd76410fadc8105a20", "bytes": 391598, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_1994.parquet", "rows": 28195, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_1995.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:10:59.496779+00:00", "sha256": "350b2bedcf1f72d6ad055b6db53408df05fa6dba037f624d959ef6b619b0047f", "bytes": 394643, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_1995.parquet", "rows": 28219, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_1996.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:00.273640+00:00", "sha256": "dd0c6b6a8bb78e0afb4c768ce94a068bce191bad5fc42268f4d36750ac8c9836", "bytes": 421716, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_1996.parquet", "rows": 29846, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_1997.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:00.372443+00:00", "sha256": "0a60f7467e4f6b0ba880f74b7fbfe36a3aa0212524a2fe5d22798634507867ba", "bytes": 421519, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_1997.parquet", "rows": 29832, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_1998.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:00.565275+00:00", "sha256": "ff7fba27f7eef834cdef6531304b2806919c2b4af5044daf7dee773df77c03d6", "bytes": 425968, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_1998.parquet", "rows": 29959, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_1999.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:00.981059+00:00", "sha256": "53a731badad453cc1ed402cb531909a741d30b302c5bf634f4b70de13722947a", "bytes": 287125, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_1999.parquet", "rows": 19283, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2000.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:01.607998+00:00", "sha256": "1b76182a026cdf5f5170e5d767f55128588656a2731173ee8b8bc73f4e069b97", "bytes": 561060, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2000.parquet", "rows": 40573, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2001.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:01.681310+00:00", "sha256": "d861b318b70acf481ca295f08b94d8ad64a203f6cad57651c39180625e2498ec", "bytes": 431491, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2001.parquet", "rows": 29941, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2002.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:01.865036+00:00", "sha256": "4a9beadb78f972c4a41875a3fbcfdd28e931c0f70c1fd79c581759160dd46e3e", "bytes": 591214, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2002.parquet", "rows": 30279, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2003.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:02.378568+00:00", "sha256": "f01efdaca1f37015f7c1a0107ff704b2c5252df3db2e9c057fcf5fc16c16d084", "bytes": 608188, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2003.parquet", "rows": 30870, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2004.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:02.696515+00:00", "sha256": "dd37c4d0fa22e3057e296cb0059bc9edbdea558ab1c7f400249d0de86fc42537", "bytes": 600396, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2004.parquet", "rows": 30606, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2005.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:02.830110+00:00", "sha256": "f75cf1e55ca5aa64a3fc626e6dd8560cdd5b30c59ddc449d04a47ec71e753546", "bytes": 626542, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2005.parquet", "rows": 31552, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2006.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:03.034149+00:00", "sha256": "d48fa4d1d321ac144ec32f2ff83bcf2b65055ae3bbcaa0b1d7c4864e0d37a2ae", "bytes": 704999, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2006.parquet", "rows": 37691, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2007.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:03.601953+00:00", "sha256": "eb039d22d2f5d8fdaab86079e5793a01f5837886dba764b7b71562eb0c8b4526", "bytes": 705886, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2007.parquet", "rows": 38234, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2008.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:03.917142+00:00", "sha256": "e6bb0c1b3c86cc4a5d06187c7a680db98c281587c9171bad9e0768ea33cbadfc", "bytes": 723087, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2008.parquet", "rows": 37973, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2009.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:04.047635+00:00", "sha256": "c5b5ba836c1dad922df4a8a69ad147c32a4966dfe8a5f2ef36900f84eb422d74", "bytes": 727965, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2009.parquet", "rows": 37453, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2010.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:04.197408+00:00", "sha256": "7348037e2eecf56e404a9e9cab1e57ff7e323f0f880012efde08f032fa089b28", "bytes": 724995, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2010.parquet", "rows": 37079, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2011.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:04.759918+00:00", "sha256": "e39dbca5de9de0147b72fdf46e11d2df4f54c834a1da05334d268825a5750214", "bytes": 713756, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2011.parquet", "rows": 37717, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2012.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:05.048604+00:00", "sha256": "bd1409a0379717c88580e262ea89be4ddda3fcf985de6366f6eae1daff1bd1f5", "bytes": 608340, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2012.parquet", "rows": 31014, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2013.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:05.175589+00:00", "sha256": "411477c53159f1234e7655ae1f6e40c4f3a8c39077443095f1f423630e84bd80", "bytes": 711104, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2013.parquet", "rows": 33448, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2014.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:05.370809+00:00", "sha256": "7c91f80eb2ecc67a5ac2ea55aa3b65bf0d1509c6d9420b5929c9f63fdfffb559", "bytes": 712064, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2014.parquet", "rows": 33730, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2015.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:06.005950+00:00", "sha256": "1138c91bf6c1a47065add90725337b23a30aafdfff9c3d8f898d8e73d8b88238", "bytes": 711239, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2015.parquet", "rows": 33578, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2016.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:06.248509+00:00", "sha256": "89dcf2e4a86fd71b11e2b60b1a6cef91ea6c3080c500d571b4295cf396b37336", "bytes": 717997, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2016.parquet", "rows": 33715, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2017.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:06.381585+00:00", "sha256": "c11d6a2d8dc9946ed4f0f2f9584c5e8e20b4fd4cc8c2ebcc3809a163b6605388", "bytes": 721623, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2017.parquet", "rows": 33631, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2018.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:06.607857+00:00", "sha256": "0345e02855da65ed7fa9536fe195ef592356c5d74e8c2745721b79fd9dc261e4", "bytes": 724896, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2018.parquet", "rows": 33119, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2019.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:07.062375+00:00", "sha256": "dbdf7f55fc5b3929c48f56ee2e962c0e3b7b503a7cf1be916e8efbf444dd4dbe", "bytes": 721558, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2019.parquet", "rows": 32985, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2020.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:07.446717+00:00", "sha256": "9d9cb6be4517107d48745270102557b719f052b1dcc3cc90e3b8a3594e6b1eaa", "bytes": 635116, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2020.parquet", "rows": 28764, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2021.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:07.432995+00:00", "sha256": "50133d2a044dd9736e05b2c779e3faa3f0a03ed5f18219cf9f44962427c421c8", "bytes": 546479, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2021.parquet", "rows": 31593, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2022.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:07.685947+00:00", "sha256": "474d15255f2a908f2c0ac0f7104b504c3cf2815b02dd0b0097c69cb634fe4395", "bytes": 605985, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2022.parquet", "rows": 33880, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2023.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:08.179670+00:00", "sha256": "968d835cd04b10533c5b5af8c0e41bf0154a73782e9446c76f765109223e8679", "bytes": 595949, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2023.parquet", "rows": 34057, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2024.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:08.541060+00:00", "sha256": "1e500a538ec45ddbcb58d9789b5494f8db4f25658eafd01d90f2d09600921665", "bytes": 610610, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2024.parquet", "rows": 35028, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2025.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:08.634002+00:00", "sha256": "e89f7fbc1124092c715b722e6d72d9dd1b9d28776ca6888b508fd2831cd705e2", "bytes": 610289, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2025.parquet", "rows": 35250, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2026.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:08.800255+00:00", "sha256": "29a29dc9efd055a93e069a0382ac830d98a13274bee655beba69d95cff099713", "bytes": 606444, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2026.parquet", "rows": 34883, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] }, { "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/download/espn_nba_player_boxscores/player_box_2027.parquet", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-10T15:11:09.223132+00:00", "sha256": "9c4e88a5b9635c34dd2f1cc56875b139bbb6014cd3617ae05f2297ecb25086a1", "bytes": 109661, "file": "data/championship/advanced/source/player_box_2027.parquet", "rows": 4145, "columns": [ "game_id", "season", "season_type", "game_date", "game_date_time", "athlete_id", "athlete_display_name", "team_id", "team_name", "team_location", "team_short_display_name", "minutes", "field_goals_made", "field_goals_attempted", "three_point_field_goals_made", "three_point_field_goals_attempted", "free_throws_made", "free_throws_attempted", "offensive_rebounds", "defensive_rebounds", "rebounds", "assists", "steals", "blocks", "turnovers", "fouls", "plus_minus", "points", "starter", "ejected", "did_not_play", "reason", "active", "athlete_jersey", "athlete_short_name", "athlete_headshot_href", "athlete_position_name", "athlete_position_abbreviation", "team_display_name", "team_uid", "team_slug", "team_logo", "team_abbreviation", "team_color", "team_alternate_color", "home_away", "team_winner", "team_score", "opponent_team_id", "opponent_team_name", "opponent_team_location", "opponent_team_display_name", "opponent_team_abbreviation", "opponent_team_logo", "opponent_team_color", "opponent_team_alternate_color", "opponent_team_score" ] } ], "sourceCoverage": { "teamGameCoverage": 1.0, "priorTeamGameCoverage": 1.0, "priorTeamCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 }, "currentPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 1.0, "priorPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 0.9967479674796748, "proxy": "(PTS+ORB+DRB+AST+STL+BLK-missedFG-missedFT-TOV) per36; previous season weight0.5, current weight1, 300-minute prior-season league shrinkage; last5-game minute weights.", "currentPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 }, "priorPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 0.9024390243902439, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 } }, "attribution": "NBA-by-Numbers uses modified SportsDataverse hoopR NBA data, sourced from ESPN, under CC BY 4.0. No endorsement implied.", "licenseUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "audit": { "inputHashes": { "data\\championship\\advanced-season-features.json": "e9b991ca97738f712aa3427f3913a47be77c500a0e9f0ce597e4037750825ce8", "public\\data\\championship-current.json": "6532b6c4e17c538babfc370c5319d045a04ffda49e11fae831ec9d0fd5ed1a56", "public\\data\\championship-current-intervals.json": "95de339997167744e6b5a4d7540c609e2cf47afba21d39354606e96a60648112" }, "sourceCodeHashes": { "advanced_model.py": "1a2785e715a7adb6010c09859c46ea3a5fad0dde07411076a470bca05ea5e977", "intraseason_intervals.py": "b246efb3697b0f3a37f0a56b7cc6ccaf4a7cf0b15424efe0ebdaeca9a78b702e", "current_season.py": "b3053ddb4f9f0c819fdd649c71bd33057060148799e328cf603e190a7586aaf3" }, "protocolHash": "7a1ffa124370b8d224f619001983612ae7b110b5a41eed2b93a48ec22f56a5ad" }, "historicalCheckpoints": [ { "id": "11-10", "label": "November 10", "status": "available", "coverage": { "trainingSeasons": 19, "testSeasons": 9, "firstTest": 2014, "lastTest": 2026, "testYears": [ 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2026 ], "excluded": [ { "season": 1995, "reason": "Previous-season team box-score coverage below95% for at least one team.", "priorTeamCoverage": { "ATL": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHH": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 0.9878048780487805, "DAL": 0.9390243902439024, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NJN": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "SEA": 1.0, "UTA": 0.9634146341463414, "WSB": 0.9878048780487805 } }, { "season": 1996, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1996-1995-11-03-POR-VAN", "1996-1995-11-05-VAN-MIN", "1996-1995-11-07-DAL-VAN", "1996-1995-11-08-SAS-VAN" ] }, { "season": 1997, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1997-1996-11-08-CLE-VAN" ] }, { "season": 1998, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1998-1997-11-01-UTA-DEN" ] }, { "season": 1999, "reason": "At least one league team has no games before the matched calendar cutoff." }, { "season": 2000, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2000-1999-11-02-CHH-ORL" ] }, { "season": 2003, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2003-2002-10-29-LAL-SAS" ] }, { "season": 2006, "reason": "Per-team player coverage below80% at cutoff or90% in the previous season.", "currentPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 0.9850746268656716, "priorPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 0.9983739837398374, "proxy": "(PTS+ORB+DRB+AST+STL+BLK-missedFG-missedFT-TOV) per36; previous season weight0.5, current weight1, 300-minute prior-season league shrinkage; last5-game minute weights.", "currentPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 0.75, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NJN": 1.0, "NOK": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 0.8, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "SEA": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 }, "priorPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 0.9878048780487805, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 0.975609756097561, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NJN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "SEA": 1.0, "TOR": 0.9878048780487805, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 } }, { "season": 2012, "reason": "At least one league team has no games before the matched calendar cutoff." }, { "season": 2019, "reason": "Per-team player coverage below80% at cutoff or90% in the previous season.", "currentPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 0.9739884393063584, "priorPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 1.0, "proxy": "(PTS+ORB+DRB+AST+STL+BLK-missedFG-missedFT-TOV) per36; previous season weight0.5, current weight1, 300-minute prior-season league shrinkage; last5-game minute weights.", "currentPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 0.18181818181818182, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 }, "priorPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 0.9878048780487805, "BOS": 0.9878048780487805, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 } }, { "season": 2020, "reason": "Excluded under existing pandemic-season protocol." }, { "season": 2021, "reason": "At least one league team has no games before the matched calendar cutoff." }, { "season": 2025, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2025-2024-10-25-POR-NOP" ] } ] }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666658, "topPickAccuracy": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.371409536031611, "brier": 0.8936827146124009, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.452418110495007, "brier": 0.8628559097888231, "topPickAccuracy": 0.4444444444444444 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.3160597174096305, "brier": 0.8789149064010632, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.3065955940371894, "brier": 0.9239428420620016, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.4405928221618733, "brier": 0.8647070699405589, "topPickAccuracy": 0.4444444444444444 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.2957721458394293, "brier": 0.9235609197369771, "topPickAccuracy": 0.1111111111111111 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.862001564098402, "brier": 0.7547553079549042, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.300418327527788, "brier": 0.909679983830535, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2222222222222222 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.8721134799140384, "brier": 0.7495399119159202, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.2365852440939213, "brier": 0.8522678777779469, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.8970514304265431, "brier": 0.752897557872064, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.00954009996102, "brier": 0.8478047979150569, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.9924628589962987, "brier": 0.7712449594500899, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.920563530076817, "brier": 0.7588497837123809, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.9109752852338413, "brier": 0.7799398618086484, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.1672623179746284, "brier": 0.8524104011863372, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.8770854873696716, "brier": 0.7808330600335579, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 2.00954009996102, "brier": 0.8478047979150569, "topPickAccuracy": 0.5555555555555556 } }, "comparisons": [ { "model": "uniform", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 1.0851376642525254, "logLossCi95": [ 0.7150793418325059, 1.4558501402955062 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ 0.8189449087619717, 1.3579529931469174 ], "brierDifference": 0.0877517602656025, "brierCi95": [ 0.0006302616783450457, 0.1826524184336535 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ 0.024668488350132307, 0.18539329204784283 ] }, { "model": "record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.05534981862198069, "logLossCi95": [ -0.2088862857558965, 0.3206198792523417 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.05555473493264835, 0.13809069861486672 ], "brierDifference": 0.014767808211337767, "brierCi95": [ -0.04272423252605224, 0.07473098376142914 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.026246687345271826, 0.051500608976874536 ] }, { "model": "strength", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.13635839308537723, "logLossCi95": [ -0.15586544816868983, 0.4126816278421525 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ 0.00991427829303277, 0.25639457597482146 ], "brierDifference": -0.016058996612240195, "brierCi95": [ -0.09327482829775845, 0.05102118100906295 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.06692322556146842, 0.022614439866056543 ] }, { "model": "adv_record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.009464123372440946, "logLossCi95": [ -0.28121933327914034, 0.28120157244192473 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.18564559339031347, 0.16671734664543159 ], "brierDifference": 0.0450279356609383, "brierCi95": [ -0.020430283786326026, 0.11235353829840639 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ 0.00019249543885184616, 0.09498780147318446 ] }, { "model": "adv_strength", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.12453310475224323, "logLossCi95": [ -0.20395478837131828, 0.44623863183638823 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.010879676880662516, 0.25184755719740676 ], "brierDifference": -0.014207836460504338, "brierCi95": [ -0.10857174126993167, 0.06575168204242056 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.07798168909206006, 0.03663642867090511 ] }, { "model": "adv_strength_record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.020287571570201238, "logLossCi95": [ -0.19360552060126168, 0.16834510485404006 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.12832283745612477, 0.09548123734138694 ], "brierDifference": 0.044646013335913795, "brierCi95": [ -0.015002597218035995, 0.09910109183659192 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ 0.005698161840916168, 0.08961976037791568 ] }, { "model": "adv_full", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.45405815331122806, "logLossCi95": [ -1.1290734139210215, 0.27440419315150105 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.9097881808736743, 0.032004792138653655 ], "brierDifference": -0.12415959844615908, "brierCi95": [ -0.35068985388147117, 0.11611061210735407 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.29174353774287076, 0.028878403419223604 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.01564138988184221, "logLossCi95": [ -0.19831166795338667, 0.1701751539935272 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.13642702039233515, 0.08593075108150779 ], "brierDifference": 0.030765077429471814, "brierCi95": [ -0.01587234277881525, 0.08326532810445614 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.0022405747370988958, 0.07056631012152807 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.4439462374955918, "logLossCi95": [ -1.1545994837441023, 0.28720982763661707 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.9329999851768458, 0.059644993372325934 ], "brierDifference": -0.1293749944851431, "brierCi95": [ -0.37370006753288176, 0.11981007199563187 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.3073229070686254, 0.04538363400126634 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.07947447331570921, "logLossCi95": [ -0.36639841210192103, 0.21192368932109157 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.2422532968209618, 0.10326835367637867 ], "brierDifference": -0.02664702862311633, "brierCi95": [ -0.12251974344254016, 0.0716991651679028 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.0754936800488911, 0.019377666805443592 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.4190082869830872, "logLossCi95": [ -1.088450302724139, 0.19607298796284656 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.9067126161296284, 0.06843899463097619 ], "brierDifference": -0.12601734852899923, "brierCi95": [ -0.3370583712622419, 0.07325849033262556 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.29906090485300874, 0.035130483296727584 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.3065196174486103, "logLossCi95": [ -1.1055721823473172, 0.4387248493387275 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.7721702261266452, 0.09103260940825092 ], "brierDifference": -0.031110108486006274, "brierCi95": [ -0.2829652916385244, 0.22592394595248094 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.20579970297587646, 0.1134658720278783 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.3235968584133314, "logLossCi95": [ -0.7454205011616902, 0.13693983613195332 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.6381187799528432, 0.008243257902843403 ], "brierDifference": -0.10766994695097347, "brierCi95": [ -0.26735430778960595, 0.042380654984237466 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.2010407722399846, -0.014137738350459554 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.39549618733281333, "logLossCi95": [ -0.9013914381505667, 0.12907986056338086 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.8741939947502967, 0.1454654968286914 ], "brierDifference": -0.12006512268868239, "brierCi95": [ -0.2636146025354697, 0.03420364132406472 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.2881419084517764, 0.029967875022184884 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.40508443217578877, "logLossCi95": [ -0.983389834904237, 0.24072421933160873 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.7323797833867933, -0.11109074651819051 ], "brierDifference": -0.09897504459241499, "brierCi95": [ -0.27135930535610825, 0.09494755508230193 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.21020583955021266, -0.00253818806541031 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.14879739943500145, "logLossCi95": [ -0.521269555569449, 0.2339492154714243 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.45842499574705303, 0.09733248719133823 ], "brierDifference": -0.02650450521472602, "brierCi95": [ -0.1246863099238398, 0.08735163994138925 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.13447927187130357, 0.06815528761666166 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.43897423003995867, "logLossCi95": [ -1.0577578707643216, 0.20386121915463262 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.8198276204770407, -0.01884395841025989 ], "brierDifference": -0.09808184636750533, "brierCi95": [ -0.31430829592386533, 0.12642151740927693 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.2550616551254403, 0.05040874997373395 ] }, { "model": "adv_selected", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.3065196174486103, "logLossCi95": [ -1.1055721823473172, 0.4387248493387275 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.7721702261266452, 0.09103260940825092 ], "brierDifference": -0.031110108486006274, "brierCi95": [ -0.2829652916385244, 0.22592394595248094 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.20579970297587646, 0.1134658720278783 ] } ], "seasons": [ { "season": 2014, "champion": "SAS", "cutoffDate": "2013-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.648986555112183 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.247590203809846, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2881286868740986 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.470489427655722, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.369342209594779, "record": 1.3482109407740748 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2723880436706247, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15017555803804683, "record": 0.30071545869034116, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.006692559519246729, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.11903167899225026, "prior_net_rating": 0.344817447393362, "retained_minutes_share": 0.15655559444597292, "rotation_box_production": 0.24399708457771108, "star_box_production": 0.4645016908443064, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10112114806379739, "efg_pct": 0.23178177551227302, "opp_efg_pct": -0.16361724246502568, "turnover_rate": 0.1349718552924143, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.11755967563035179, "oreb_pct": 0.22497251394577011, "dreb_pct": -0.08319413605816464, "ft_rate": 0.0727035493580185, "opp_ft_rate": -0.10260283574244286, "pace": -0.00946705413414137, "three_attempt_rate": -0.01022303690411576, "three_pct": 0.19616575428439348, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.034750966141284485, "opp_three_pct": -0.023773164151914248 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3705902714856015, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.5060896196329732, "record": 1.3746642681596268, "adjusted_off_rating": -1.0062435943468977, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.9044115866786051 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.3268055723005636, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16904959971486758, "record": 0.3096649763577819, "prior_net_rating": 0.33971896646213606, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1534834805042438, "rotation_box_production": 0.2433540691415586, "star_box_production": 0.46272785191434906, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10120755506269377, "efg_pct": 0.22262131223353948, "opp_efg_pct": -0.19287513181834126, "turnover_rate": 0.14861224822177033, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14271180393017846, "oreb_pct": 0.2226502546828581, "dreb_pct": -0.07107167771039913, "ft_rate": 0.07447263011930162, "opp_ft_rate": -0.11005442797501551, "pace": -0.006426554928476527, "three_attempt_rate": -0.01134793378200317, "three_pct": 0.19216608731658194, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.04128839730556291, "opp_three_pct": -0.035590512253529084 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.368533493490113, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.35528612250126657, "record": 0.46639075200903296, "prior_net_rating": 0.43057844195163647, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1559546465122635 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6635629375655476, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14500429144168603, "record": 0.32450676322802824, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.007189239224569181, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.09406396458362073, "rotation_box_production": 0.2839609470999645, "star_box_production": 0.49623088482205363, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11766471751446464, "efg_pct": 0.2096472157816669, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14215084008209458, "turnover_rate": 0.10300782215977601, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10187120414063196, "oreb_pct": 0.2138657877100068, "dreb_pct": -0.05540412684836023, "ft_rate": 0.07643009031704916, "opp_ft_rate": -0.13660725974842616, "pace": -0.009868200644350438, "three_attempt_rate": -0.004085654100986652, "three_pct": 0.19912236166990685, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.06451689428299326, "opp_three_pct": -0.013528515841597406 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3211824990782857, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2592654161027182, "record": 0.9532833653571227, "rotation_box_production": 0.3007818532189927, "star_box_production": 0.8129731467725817, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.3194837175837367 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0221712475953075, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.18027160840003267, "record": 0.3230540609034533, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.035236983977508955, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.11586729743415515, "prior_net_rating": 0.457224332199193, "retained_minutes_share": 0.15861119627089038, "efg_pct": 0.33533184936981897, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17057252630895653, "turnover_rate": 0.11303579415246828, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1077143936383368, "oreb_pct": 0.1685346300722504, "dreb_pct": -0.05782234154342392, "ft_rate": 0.11531763264733243, "opp_ft_rate": -0.09240266820154112, "pace": 0.01827942818937302, "three_attempt_rate": -0.03660965473409717, "three_pct": 0.22649990589809785, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.018016082053532254, "opp_three_pct": -0.03533639075418311 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.644826820882385, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.25652821891916205, "record": 0.39398367689083236, "efg_pct": 0.3812663118466943, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17724217157619715, "turnover_rate": 0.06743438464016595, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10415520297013729, "oreb_pct": 0.1454208898640316, "dreb_pct": -0.01664050137983937, "ft_rate": 0.1416463307715532, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1271022902194558 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.633449723145641, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.20798812417384321, "record": 0.3682855097132402, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.000926849354297805, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.18343582416070092, "prior_net_rating": 0.2985934755679153, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1497839685406332, "rotation_box_production": 0.23978871582195624, "star_box_production": 0.45404387384603434, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.12108403319440045, "pace": 0.04886172314231768, "three_attempt_rate": -0.009676756265322337, "three_pct": 0.2328147979131418, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.028640817772832162, "opp_three_pct": -0.048643237609293365 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3555023780166526, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.37258871110310676, "record": 1.0281820536900463, "pace": 0.14502733454733527, "three_attempt_rate": -0.0752142700684199, "three_pct": 0.4038590837466291, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.15890330058007948, "opp_three_pct": 0.0070189928309633285 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5235715546045348, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.17232256594091547, "record": 0.3125146325893194, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.01766069612159285, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.11947895003813529, "prior_net_rating": 0.34361687520449746, "retained_minutes_share": 0.15972648840547912, "rotation_box_production": 0.25041668436294057, "star_box_production": 0.46720233679117723, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10728894898597782, "efg_pct": 0.26590939787357654, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17164955940275103, "turnover_rate": 0.13256427977657492, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.12250714947159402, "oreb_pct": 0.22026075927061797, "dreb_pct": -0.08797295543236465, "ft_rate": 0.07363335156671844, "opp_ft_rate": -0.11289673294154316 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2013, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.31861377233778, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0221712475953075, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2013 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666665, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.112368860935973, "brier": 0.9058173738237316, "championProbability": 0.12095111044585344, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 3.3497856929671155, "brier": 1.0135682102245271, "championProbability": 0.035091873730399015, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.6551711983153274, "brier": 1.0007621646843476, "championProbability": 0.07028680465261024, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.0544301117671715, "brier": 1.05653875580857, "championProbability": 0.12816585498171068, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 3.408229878894703, "brier": 1.0316604873550765, "championProbability": 0.033099739097044445, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.3140624337309643, "brier": 1.121562244173274, "championProbability": 0.0988588272675873, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.499064582747797, "brier": 0.9685062203235608, "championProbability": 0.08216181827136897, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.2883306877487284, "brier": 1.1234496706888275, "championProbability": 0.10143564837257527, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.6434432631805165, "brier": 0.9987638281348111, "championProbability": 0.07111597647108296, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.1259846766337893, "brier": 0.8525616461916239, "championProbability": 0.11931542329495434, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.543063935244218, "brier": 0.9299919930026579, "championProbability": 0.07862512805800313, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.4707022315460312, "brier": 0.6976207286780708, "championProbability": 0.2297640809360002, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.97826079506309, "brier": 1.0169443729448295, "championProbability": 0.05088124987681121, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 3.351430286719678, "brier": 1.0137215684013527, "championProbability": 0.035034209284387156, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.6672013431285302, "brier": 0.7405283155638083, "championProbability": 0.18877464249146983, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.35935962331236, "brier": 1.0438632634058582, "championProbability": 0.09448070707024352, "topPick": "IND", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.53402559790146, "brier": 0.9868013285881115, "championProbability": 0.07933898969043572, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.4707022315460312, "brier": 0.6976207286780708, "championProbability": 0.2297640809360002, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015780536033074832, "strength": 0.030855807165249573, "strength_record": 0.021162054435620945, "adv_record": 0.007444513825663815, "adv_strength": 0.028693595108024498, "adv_strength_record": 0.009262453849099619, "adv_full": 0.0061918311005158145, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008580715611798418, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006264643271450334, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01856093131989153, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013325745240714148, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013046219464844569, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008235726087297904, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018754797315123466, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.014499362177137059, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012609930582901534, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006412180233296924, "adv_selected": 0.013046219464844569 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005700037290160011, "strength": 0.009133987001615142, "strength_record": 0.005886539629508424, "adv_record": 0.0017941896278752911, "adv_strength": 0.00742547271809209, "adv_strength_record": 0.001964033859346691, "adv_full": 0.009493060994922028, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017148838158742212, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009691246744573213, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009771197966642884, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.015825794594214626, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005282532334676231, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00831990898829329, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010795697754602119, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010671591869383948, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004350900673742481, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008232116954790739, "adv_selected": 0.005282532334676231 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01019972787456676, "strength": 0.013689417149863683, "strength_record": 0.010302438559094141, "adv_record": 0.004045692893615724, "adv_strength": 0.011637368848849087, "adv_strength_record": 0.0043432307128663476, "adv_full": 0.002916958412781113, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004255163199768625, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0028948488356597924, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012501272273851404, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003751791642883557, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00040815793141695396, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012170806514283141, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015980688217710204, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002283362820817593, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006182438768675642, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002595961993552836, "adv_selected": 0.00040815793141695396 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Bobcats", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015780536033074832, "strength": 0.005106130768784865, "strength_record": 0.007332363394404444, "adv_record": 0.007444513825663815, "adv_strength": 0.0038928106475151405, "adv_strength_record": 0.005223763859982214, "adv_full": 0.0010146889149222015, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004832403879768154, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001030563610531965, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0059853551036703305, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0025449699259841884, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007450099190452177, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0029047004697086887, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012426120987648115, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001161669114872277, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003443577946479889, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0011372097985739287, "adv_selected": 0.0007450099190452177 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008565945730893589, "strength": 0.01551606018560662, "strength_record": 0.010072287795439209, "adv_record": 0.0031699728407796764, "adv_strength": 0.013373915317661883, "adv_strength_record": 0.003702695262546168, "adv_full": 0.012271210905272983, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003341443312585408, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011333233064988374, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01566004244473909, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014551413454800106, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0035030008284884866, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014357580715188153, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019050341983772402, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007182593252261928, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0034337085272937353, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014656176426400882, "adv_selected": 0.0035030008284884866 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01019972787456676, "strength": 0.005619410377212312, "strength_record": 0.0060967399998783315, "adv_record": 0.004045692893615724, "adv_strength": 0.004329682562634976, "adv_strength_record": 0.0032710891044510915, "adv_full": 0.004063110229576846, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0030516433110848165, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0038189427614989595, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007557541037638844, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008021880825567096, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002663631947902504, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00444906911582953, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008245166232409853, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0060385396837369975, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004187309878719266, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0035470477347018534, "adv_selected": 0.002663631947902504 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.042571811785762394, "strength_record": 0.0325519198750049, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.04102110489026051, "adv_strength_record": 0.016895402070469485, "adv_full": 0.01537557690303777, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01583364068816435, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016510431675843103, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.022951201537376648, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.027885988033069315, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012014842503831122, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02151720724489279, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03211907804419879, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.016837973772759727, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.030854887485850375, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013263906458430244, "adv_selected": 0.012014842503831122 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002523959915787062, "strength": 0.0037116999205582704, "strength_record": 0.0022083618480961535, "adv_record": 0.0005747698018642902, "adv_strength": 0.002731787192009416, "adv_strength_record": 0.000581338753944811, "adv_full": 0.005807576910430678, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004647259978044701, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005753618061976739, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008989746186420192, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006346220441544232, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006184925263852446, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009653524732136511, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005493539012675918, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007084560889172607, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002850297614417026, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003911281105362522, "adv_selected": 0.0006184925263852446 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008565945730893589, "strength": 0.013067713750149196, "strength_record": 0.009102990585000453, "adv_record": 0.0031699728407796764, "adv_strength": 0.011051985031581274, "adv_strength_record": 0.0035056751733827008, "adv_full": 0.00476748058313824, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0030870258772546745, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005249729585448485, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00837231240618124, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009405065604066164, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0016128045181952886, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006451304468763506, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01623951889725808, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003611624898954379, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0036173152402669464, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005003947024568507, "adv_selected": 0.0016128045181952886 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.14192742143203452, "strength_record": 0.06617564757568649, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.1562078369126151, "adv_strength_record": 0.024789628687064375, "adv_full": 0.061833745031737324, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.030005920176901076, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05464018514830327, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0453920931413139, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.07234052331370824, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.018566616063324416, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0946547560203806, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07912628974395727, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.061523406666179045, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05941163904322391, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04779520563470502, "adv_selected": 0.018566616063324416 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.02502549992164821, "strength_record": 0.02380256164870608, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.022739782366432603, "adv_strength_record": 0.014266020782211581, "adv_full": 0.03927696693903533, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012705802824972079, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04039030726602002, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.035596383589248874, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04138905836313284, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009206373784367384, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06115766610698773, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07814602058446646, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018205380931814726, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.011361212353863314, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04645986346614015, "adv_selected": 0.009206373784367384 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.33485278419601744, "strength": 0.1940911641521653, "strength_record": 0.3378576996207764, "adv_record": 0.5317902102239146, "adv_strength": 0.2211335969512089, "adv_strength_record": 0.5454658824206718, "adv_full": 0.14544668357900467, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.5511066225353877, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12479683515678514, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.19014803004292052, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1528258045020163, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.13142945627332986, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.2715923355474127, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.22471515893894883, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.11983130327527278, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.4580980583976922, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.12423228223536252, "adv_selected": 0.13142945627332986 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.08341984769952959, "strength_record": 0.048385071021877155, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.08658005651700533, "adv_strength_record": 0.020930809242657878, "adv_full": 0.06152693146049974, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021393777408871818, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06829771848966253, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0649887972706643, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.061900687129128405, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.06506586540906198, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.045655384440609084, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04064094929197548, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06356312819272526, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025403364517211275, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06514777881823478, "adv_selected": 0.06506586540906198 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01019972787456676, "strength": 0.004457606832490641, "strength_record": 0.005319001198076547, "adv_record": 0.004045692893615724, "adv_strength": 0.00334779251000385, "adv_strength_record": 0.0030385444759802455, "adv_full": 0.0017696334650157781, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002552273116245989, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016807419373780805, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010315812797650998, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002863893535528714, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011908469183805322, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004721977912819849, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0056450871525941335, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00486639027568884, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007363051627304437, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0013144043059869575, "adv_selected": 0.0011908469183805322 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015780536033074832, "strength": 0.012774991321758604, "strength_record": 0.012586531934381504, "adv_record": 0.007444513825663815, "adv_strength": 0.010777417830862317, "adv_strength_record": 0.006995025250982966, "adv_full": 0.010815867452992279, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006834465358442655, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011453592375289019, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.026810941490679908, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01047551384110908, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004082285879001404, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021764698745020742, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01906918843559832, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010250644785417526, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008299763199881747, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0104100223018435, "adv_selected": 0.004082285879001404 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.048512324756426424, "strength_record": 0.035156222876983605, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.04742444681681772, "adv_strength_record": 0.017612902119377105, "adv_full": 0.24187022783886, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015825771089504424, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.27188186685013976, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0826864369923651, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1642962216652217, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.18740789930439608, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.12644781967687496, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06322627954763965, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1873705005334548, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02646341684065028, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.21760262320377718, "adv_selected": 0.18740789930439608 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008565945730893589, "strength": 0.009795157396712488, "strength_record": 0.007681084096139018, "adv_record": 0.0031699728407796764, "adv_strength": 0.008024665703370947, "adv_strength_record": 0.003198252105763322, "adv_full": 0.0047783382609249, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0028050215509063435, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005081246092661985, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006466160351766085, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010927255404078913, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002332709125063131, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007652583458718167, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012360157234505788, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005082892654182016, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007774983415912068, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0031147066744078946, "adv_selected": 0.002332709125063131 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04368836637631581, "strength": 0.04790014981903915, "strength_record": 0.048116573311572326, "adv_record": 0.03088903493781195, "adv_strength": 0.04676037510978997, "adv_strength_record": 0.034102755222576366, "adv_full": 0.023864438135145896, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03346460422135715, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023137894531636886, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03184944414640235, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04397304225076823, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.042956352940835475, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018643918464378333, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03556110462606695, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03180535815876003, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03028141080298873, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.026381936661308232, "adv_selected": 0.042956352940835475 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015780536033074832, "strength": 0.026974641228159874, "strength_record": 0.019550563617504617, "adv_record": 0.007444513825663815, "adv_strength": 0.02471476046288136, "adv_strength_record": 0.008874377756719573, "adv_full": 0.010481103995112163, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0076303973434873685, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010312899256752368, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014240477145811815, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022975554078935017, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013580633681078343, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009935714466166855, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013189459803190976, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.020927520477226666, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.023843798547390323, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00654250108325785, "adv_selected": 0.013580633681078343 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008565945730893589, "strength": 0.014320971348744665, "strength_record": 0.00960767898270901, "adv_record": 0.0031699728407796764, "adv_strength": 0.012235041964991655, "adv_strength_record": 0.003609400326764957, "adv_full": 0.011488182847487838, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032526455635778647, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011567025782263535, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.021050574319921325, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009879281357740717, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002490391924520088, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01854491769482741, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01421148086832502, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010057627158385752, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0041156173050383715, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010699328290951661, "adv_selected": 0.002490391924520088 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09866452946956492, "strength": 0.038053489744404596, "strength_record": 0.06588203369815074, "adv_record": 0.09642257808385213, "adv_strength": 0.03621583298415088, "adv_strength_record": 0.08038387440987196, "adv_full": 0.18741527150056864, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08372124606407583, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.18708712668095145, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.1438371552802542, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.11372118732906336, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.21044973953910592, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08775395042481143, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0558678656921583, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1468003359966546, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03127550744523575, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.25653171045248485, "adv_selected": 0.21044973953910592 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01019972787456676, "strength": 0.047938480897741706, "strength_record": 0.021559773106995642, "adv_record": 0.004045692893615724, "adv_strength": 0.04680192830668799, "adv_strength_record": 0.00647312066877243, "adv_full": 0.014911918718351612, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005938168712002382, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013315957949503302, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012049424146331117, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03145229569077912, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.007089432593819591, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01810747053769278, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.030160376627144242, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.016601224683237076, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01964540296898981, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011341495566475158, "adv_selected": 0.007089432593819591 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024414898177050687, "strength": 0.008763432341321488, "strength_record": 0.012826782339288297, "adv_record": 0.013698713065432145, "adv_strength": 0.0070917212519367254, "adv_strength_record": 0.010214301866554074, "adv_full": 0.006023816198613992, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008200069279247999, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0062038141666545385, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010654334482130684, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013200092502537637, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004682058069533459, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011249875385365898, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02971622935614784, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005106733291527717, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010807459132160229, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006512370523601602, "adv_selected": 0.004682058069533459 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04368836637631581, "strength": 0.04050064673813579, "strength_record": 0.04358694096880725, "adv_record": 0.03088903493781195, "adv_strength": 0.038811027403933586, "adv_strength_record": 0.0323285811060219, "adv_full": 0.003780922242599277, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03148406220519412, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0037196210960126603, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01461548543371059, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010302114104665121, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002122056462207464, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014973417245076268, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04938706093927636, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0040376577823228385, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.041040796532332946, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0033140828714353487, "adv_selected": 0.002122056462207464 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04368836637631581, "strength": 0.0336516392416251, "strength_record": 0.03907971866333409, "adv_record": 0.03088903493781195, "adv_strength": 0.031594703572820806, "adv_strength_record": 0.030476854655112764, "adv_full": 0.015548805285187015, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.027430539019628056, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0170457059579961, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02612058281784565, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03327526003453243, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.022321921010088355, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021211084167941128, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03578276472870148, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01950176989425416, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05334440696884339, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011572400451064987, "adv_selected": 0.022321921010088355 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002058892362155329, "strength": 0.0025086726488595403, "strength_record": 0.0015667137149980737, "adv_record": 0.0004324145936404695, "adv_strength": 0.001768193699055605, "adv_strength_record": 0.00040664125204683746, "adv_full": 0.001551928591591279, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003758796307176753, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016238659593256141, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0031522205885498355, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00334482266980216, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0012396641184192407, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0011997978959083036, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0030462014636898132, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0022726273907616094, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00048625030770120764, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001604214151677003, "adv_selected": 0.0012396641184192407 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.12095111044585344, "strength": 0.035091873730399015, "strength_record": 0.07028680465261024, "adv_record": 0.12816585498171068, "adv_strength": 0.033099739097044445, "adv_strength_record": 0.0988588272675873, "adv_full": 0.08216181827136897, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10143564837257527, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07111597647108296, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.11931542329495434, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.07862512805800313, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.2297640809360002, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.05088124987681121, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.035034209284387156, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.18877464249146983, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09448070707024352, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.07933898969043572, "adv_selected": 0.2297640809360002 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01019972787456676, "strength": 0.03124444965218084, "strength_record": 0.016753446823389067, "adv_record": 0.004045692893615724, "adv_strength": 0.02909519376573165, "adv_strength_record": 0.005648341108974256, "adv_full": 0.005743323557536355, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005322396816173284, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005929175090799618, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.017130379211259258, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008653514582602313, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0017007302417680564, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01228295861747655, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019296947532339317, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005374550310394618, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006380960457819106, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005183066254873317, "adv_selected": 0.0017007302417680564 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0007436859696092522, "strength": 0.0009847526402162103, "strength_record": 0.000514641411920742, "adv_record": 0.00010421550648170905, "adv_strength": 0.0006259844235726477, "adv_strength_record": 9.433143203564743e-05, "adv_full": 0.0012235957731637488, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 8.368016525890792e-05, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012931342143059138, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002267235536414326, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0015163292568871132, "adv_add_player_availability": 8.883580377921628e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0018897520179630464, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0024126318009694636, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000693368393949801, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00014352637557625694, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0012642179402467587, "adv_selected": 8.883580377921628e-05 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008565945730893589, "strength": 0.012790748351604151, "strength_record": 0.00898881261404607, "adv_record": 0.0031699728407796764, "adv_strength": 0.010792180032456728, "adv_strength_record": 0.0034818451961635805, "adv_full": 0.006584985900605818, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032693628513691475, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006878051914504309, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010963007643392683, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010403550566916003, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023373579471341666, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011618842960363326, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01429958790251837, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007981658177223723, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008448299971594166, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004876971692051071, "adv_selected": 0.0023373579471341666 } } ] }, { "season": 2015, "champion": "GSW", "cutoffDate": "2014-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.6279866755018688 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.215396855136067, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2243135128488147 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.626779502862219, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14837973696189743, "record": 1.5077590978776065 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.279333775347348, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.12651817160674697, "record": 0.356303975614969, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.0722767097647133, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1684780752481209, "prior_net_rating": 0.3409464314702326, "retained_minutes_share": 0.16630990242161708, "rotation_box_production": 0.2563334773708597, "star_box_production": 0.48484088913925627, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10704823936027816, "efg_pct": 0.2380149985178518, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14474766763708552, "turnover_rate": 0.06978664905361985, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10365074274881417, "oreb_pct": 0.1905287438959953, "dreb_pct": 0.013490650599971319, "ft_rate": -0.01129829360402344, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1615102900135491, "pace": 0.015636207808169853, "three_attempt_rate": -0.09107398550775346, "three_pct": 0.19410282986339766, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.06794669109725181, "opp_three_pct": 0.03600232581285307 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3920026566959676, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.293218698613253, "record": 1.5212342453576047, "adjusted_off_rating": -1.039379100644544, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.8848834254363157 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.320393091541925, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14554803397755717, "record": 0.37008600622829146, "prior_net_rating": 0.33332048140397447, "retained_minutes_share": 0.16002006662317295, "rotation_box_production": 0.2506229404722885, "star_box_production": 0.47642833325168, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10820878977077002, "efg_pct": 0.2092435536605291, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1985790234012835, "turnover_rate": 0.09953265530807061, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14336290133347637, "oreb_pct": 0.18329904371322167, "dreb_pct": 0.043676847882648404, "ft_rate": -0.017492495531615897, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17874680644322327, "pace": 0.02358319473534168, "three_attempt_rate": -0.099031718673516, "three_pct": 0.181262033901642, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.08819646330685604, "opp_three_pct": 0.01982572222417541 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.414351788438514, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3225215157063975, "record": 0.5114631900174764, "prior_net_rating": 0.4581870216130144, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1984259913867329 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.573966560743588, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.12253360573639965, "record": 0.3870687624962581, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07108542336996508, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1419118398284642, "rotation_box_production": 0.3028986940173555, "star_box_production": 0.5287821289992846, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1119460094290685, "efg_pct": 0.21743348027653137, "opp_efg_pct": -0.12059354501181584, "turnover_rate": 0.0434775359788682, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09973901219870793, "oreb_pct": 0.17393877811459732, "dreb_pct": 0.03666813034119825, "ft_rate": -0.0021427950688276136, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1949634164046887, "pace": 0.011743735520868496, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08062737937416384, "three_pct": 0.1895063090445123, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.09091492383310434, "opp_three_pct": 0.05064304185375014 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3581627384392747, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.10160550527167653, "record": 1.1210824393030978, "rotation_box_production": 0.330061031123968, "star_box_production": 0.8321212577020635, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.3543674277678679 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9302597449204282, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15292005105924564, "record": 0.3781480728715233, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.021719313737693736, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.148207735764068, "prior_net_rating": 0.4781072164160093, "retained_minutes_share": 0.18613790491574708, "efg_pct": 0.3426348419348724, "opp_efg_pct": -0.13859850935973958, "turnover_rate": 0.028718237963959174, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10424410203843483, "oreb_pct": 0.12103902867136535, "dreb_pct": 0.03218508504751517, "ft_rate": 0.03378306230572781, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1494702163198578, "pace": 0.052023243438422344, "three_attempt_rate": -0.1277390247708054, "three_pct": 0.21702862160716488, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.03040223383259108, "opp_three_pct": 0.033605081692141874 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.7003991499125024, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.22130009322788208, "record": 0.4568835404025502, "efg_pct": 0.36831971596650365, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1512858173082068, "turnover_rate": 0.004975117226626466, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.12198048657272442, "oreb_pct": 0.09042722011294148, "dreb_pct": 0.08458153217080416, "ft_rate": 0.05649049867305286, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18005929424059633 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.75311315040798, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.185064820639593, "record": 0.4147798876143745, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.05951181841557594, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.226034503536644, "prior_net_rating": 0.3162068172824201, "retained_minutes_share": 0.16992370203603796, "rotation_box_production": 0.256264208895217, "star_box_production": 0.47573627296862175, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1252782822868235, "pace": 0.04601845590292872, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07285271942417516, "three_pct": 0.23327184050802882, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.057997326853642166, "opp_three_pct": 0.018710206883052916 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.240785538868632, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.27492465070270944, "record": 1.1685040054094282, "pace": 0.19494098093886114, "three_attempt_rate": -0.19457440187187047, "three_pct": 0.3738096797632931, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.15311719079391445, "opp_three_pct": 0.17125827936322385 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4962028993891723, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14239743357207277, "record": 0.3670928418302764, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.056105730539052726, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17079763538952117, "prior_net_rating": 0.33155487279190643, "retained_minutes_share": 0.176651574214239, "rotation_box_production": 0.2618053829655685, "star_box_production": 0.4849965693699113, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.12225465095395532, "efg_pct": 0.27083124160203675, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14660455171919204, "turnover_rate": 0.06464021102579984, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10431724838749779, "oreb_pct": 0.1844850069413702, "dreb_pct": 0.01222863111363322, "ft_rate": -0.02273798595458796, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1676158769160543 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2014, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.35451574326506, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9302597449204282, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2014 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.2751279755589344, "brier": 0.8659575189633186, "championProbability": 0.10278375378522743, "topPick": "HOU / MEM / TOR", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.8521443604491827, "brier": 0.7728933001583668, "championProbability": 0.15690035440517375, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.9394918798786804, "brier": 0.8011569750123643, "championProbability": 0.14377698720041868, "topPick": "HOU", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.093841822058573, "brier": 0.8488252739721999, "championProbability": 0.12321286346903348, "topPick": "HOU / MEM / TOR", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.7841832526291654, "brier": 0.7591720186162432, "championProbability": 0.16793416479055015, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.0140144876916533, "brier": 0.8323078034766481, "championProbability": 0.13345185702838208, "topPick": "HOU", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.2178570133168005, "brier": 0.5463408253222036, "championProbability": 0.29586351963103596, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.7919875354467365, "brier": 0.7721123207237379, "championProbability": 0.16662865996440693, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.3407973758549496, "brier": 0.5954115203113833, "championProbability": 0.261636962386175, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.990647640223097, "brier": 0.7960203755505008, "championProbability": 0.13660692465112248, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.6167510351379792, "brier": 0.6944137333517645, "championProbability": 0.19854271062210344, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.9989966122203766, "brier": 0.8354840826412174, "championProbability": 0.13547114515566017, "topPick": "SAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.2270192692261903, "brier": 0.546490862518586, "championProbability": 0.2931651229273135, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.823941244765121, "brier": 0.759877357369553, "championProbability": 0.16138842454583055, "topPick": "HOU", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.3868142173231015, "brier": 0.6046123452819436, "championProbability": 0.24987006972465323, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.6387086633850234, "brier": 0.7097292661983473, "championProbability": 0.19423069762745207, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.2492218014306815, "brier": 0.5631162983868845, "championProbability": 0.2867278412583692, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.9989966122203766, "brier": 0.8354840826412174, "championProbability": 0.13547114515566017, "topPick": "SAC", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01075894572403875, "strength": 0.021272527781759185, "strength_record": 0.012473866906842995, "adv_record": 0.00578728070235026, "adv_strength": 0.019680824820171132, "adv_strength_record": 0.006058798470289138, "adv_full": 0.013674667443408312, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005832805269467196, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014121896638201036, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019157348652186837, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014261357804575941, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0049687166174580775, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018904550262622544, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017545076718302077, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.020452302828774443, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012426397630655395, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011022199054112924, "adv_selected": 0.0049687166174580775 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.043146132751603686, "strength": 0.036292666616378276, "strength_record": 0.038891267146545075, "adv_record": 0.03800292381612252, "adv_strength": 0.034911084155857405, "adv_strength_record": 0.037113808329660825, "adv_full": 0.021472759572947992, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.027297486746017518, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.025572529723743985, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03075587247044975, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02852506377144546, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010597979917695455, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04230019666722107, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05655724237203163, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.019427685488868817, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07477885363969647, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0161055863348803, "adv_selected": 0.010597979917695455 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018111702509998863, "strength": 0.02672941747896397, "strength_record": 0.019391978148300987, "adv_record": 0.011721359100926844, "adv_strength": 0.025144697080131753, "adv_strength_record": 0.011999135378252642, "adv_full": 0.005854528271615338, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009719785999274075, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00717705271206065, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0136273849409525, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010013901412949574, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0029647673665662566, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010442015287370938, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.029996043942277343, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004270479356055765, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015274791144231038, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006991677071536044, "adv_selected": 0.0029647673665662566 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012485194289665786, "strength": 0.009361408651536078, "strength_record": 0.0088621972375325, "adv_record": 0.0070802232914049645, "adv_strength": 0.008157680152075361, "adv_strength_record": 0.006563533252940334, "adv_full": 0.009784235326692786, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00951264880894006, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009937390245324338, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009982002130221091, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.018114755500251982, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011192821331445911, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006207399937312118, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013978012325937837, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011924114027624621, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005500327328069118, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010300287977175719, "adv_selected": 0.011192821331445911 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05529058556460079, "strength": 0.03867365061872587, "strength_record": 0.04685277859297927, "adv_record": 0.053182778420827914, "adv_strength": 0.0373742326729656, "adv_strength_record": 0.051085681774394834, "adv_full": 0.04009943074168451, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.038217802642820445, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04876679190316837, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03993352864567444, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04973656063234739, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.029122332321365806, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.05179391985499065, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.060229727765046634, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.035670036840183016, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08197044670314385, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02934185639025147, "adv_selected": 0.029122332321365806 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01075894572403875, "strength": 0.01536555741462783, "strength_record": 0.01050509487257258, "adv_record": 0.00578728070235026, "adv_strength": 0.013882552464365717, "adv_strength_record": 0.005807866375871147, "adv_full": 0.023318092605570277, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006373931971027023, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.024569342700635675, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00790849379103391, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06622654955568794, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.06998686432074076, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003597881863690321, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010325687003263518, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.032315830901372196, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006034894046017851, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02319685744163692, "adv_selected": 0.06998686432074076 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026273821632252718, "strength": 0.0357352312944788, "strength_record": 0.028423750268991316, "adv_record": 0.019404791843170458, "adv_strength": 0.03433608560418191, "adv_strength_record": 0.01987517320719284, "adv_full": 0.02258469748954337, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013385980707354026, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02765548194725335, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02580540672577285, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.034285527887561326, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03687776887960531, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019117597105743143, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03797158386147377, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.019172878398987857, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0167089898827449, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02723469670950849, "adv_selected": 0.03687776887960531 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003191494333784934, "strength": 0.003580424842253957, "strength_record": 0.0023036331311639215, "adv_record": 0.0011150642498249403, "adv_strength": 0.002908825278144424, "adv_strength_record": 0.0010456760306593582, "adv_full": 0.0019162591300589474, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012225994095764932, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002133892554837095, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005028706229804271, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002592591865468815, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011393804932749968, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0018966319895455282, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00312684980205424, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003662610359459089, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0014760290922566195, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002058309342317689, "adv_selected": 0.0011393804932749968 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007602854459731539, "strength": 0.005836486886501738, "strength_record": 0.005088217163742555, "adv_record": 0.0036152549692661687, "adv_strength": 0.004913738526690525, "adv_strength_record": 0.0033121175331097107, "adv_full": 0.004871979057436099, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004288833359615408, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005096569201858965, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006938319561248626, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00808531571980538, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0034735870828908636, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003140269856402382, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0067530600188878374, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00604426038210368, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0025697705196240784, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004929884937837566, "adv_selected": 0.0034735870828908636 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.10278375378522743, "strength": 0.15690035440517375, "strength_record": 0.14377698720041868, "adv_record": 0.12321286346903348, "adv_strength": 0.16793416479055015, "adv_strength_record": 0.13345185702838208, "adv_full": 0.29586351963103596, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.16662865996440693, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.261636962386175, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.13660692465112248, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.19854271062210344, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.13547114515566017, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.2931651229273135, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.16138842454583055, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.24987006972465323, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.19423069762745207, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.2867278412583692, "adv_selected": 0.13547114515566017 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11635341424118241, "strength": 0.15406236856963404, "strength_record": 0.15369451991083136, "adv_record": 0.14575822010450157, "adv_strength": 0.16467722688087894, "adv_strength_record": 0.15555408549600508, "adv_full": 0.16569401445480308, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15203628580356815, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15117702053473708, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10680521505672871, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.15274791000685062, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.07638440540733019, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.16032091013287444, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.1778717351573951, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.10596873720654562, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09929248673733264, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1802031167682888, "adv_selected": 0.07638440540733019 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002819287856312807, "strength": 0.008199841976403256, "strength_record": 0.0033059464543049614, "adv_record": 0.0009425901268167134, "adv_strength": 0.007076764514416831, "adv_strength_record": 0.0009967923590097573, "adv_full": 0.0024843300613863048, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013311161756612597, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002621073832057996, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010050688249684069, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001985215559989539, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00012603314891469398, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007789309855520237, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007699710726870872, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0020183137520522884, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010661492625780374, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0025767108699132116, "adv_selected": 0.00012603314891469398 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.043146132751603686, "strength": 0.013494470469970486, "strength_record": 0.023065300981584075, "adv_record": 0.03800292381612252, "adv_strength": 0.012077137821722516, "adv_strength_record": 0.03263360574441525, "adv_full": 0.036831840795977976, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.029816300557383144, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0410580194593618, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05929837550252144, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03283894526988296, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.11020014419981361, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02144539825430847, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018160376722664236, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0862188566769083, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.029317503279172742, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.039753587260911924, "adv_selected": 0.11020014419981361 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003191494333784934, "strength": 0.0028917907723153983, "strength_record": 0.002057904916922242, "adv_record": 0.0011150642498249403, "adv_strength": 0.0023130455591156658, "adv_strength_record": 0.0010170311928012913, "adv_full": 0.00125848936147625, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008487928264789219, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016518920243665319, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002409889204404844, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00287786438341269, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001756948097960918, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001097521069387082, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0027904386423492325, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0021748885123843787, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002406557385677853, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001040954996295562, "adv_selected": 0.001756948097960918 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11635341424118241, "strength": 0.059328893716346594, "strength_record": 0.09285587402315991, "adv_record": 0.14575822010450157, "adv_strength": 0.0591531530557108, "adv_strength_record": 0.13740157851064558, "adv_full": 0.049914003227525636, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.16497993195347085, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.045010431382947906, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.08885943326367635, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04589350260659225, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03188502495547541, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07767980790134404, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05595555154972421, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06310852614891661, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.14744075045927132, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.039939803526329413, "adv_selected": 0.03188502495547541 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05529058556460079, "strength": 0.043309533056957956, "strength_record": 0.0497393110490764, "adv_record": 0.053182778420827914, "adv_strength": 0.042201372230371785, "adv_strength_record": 0.05184330849038487, "adv_full": 0.014231442085024764, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04172777628910035, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016690155132053634, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05102537870049037, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013981222220022124, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015452290210441842, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0348640144816753, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.046741259545472924, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018181301280269277, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.039017797590390674, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014839318154270219, "adv_selected": 0.015452290210441842 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012485194289665786, "strength": 0.014214724655916177, "strength_record": 0.011049234686864405, "adv_record": 0.0070802232914049645, "adv_strength": 0.012770080248085316, "adv_strength_record": 0.006929874252795862, "adv_full": 0.0037033560528665402, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00949872028993125, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0035937744285181, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00636327049574704, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006846109849036981, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0015229846514550904, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005273160097574534, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012829769572598893, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00387544488711616, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008079778682248072, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003400575963600658, "adv_selected": 0.0015229846514550904 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007602854459731539, "strength": 0.017063663230767603, "strength_record": 0.00896613536363777, "adv_record": 0.0036152549692661687, "adv_strength": 0.015535077998192948, "adv_strength_record": 0.0038079470933517694, "adv_full": 0.010371723185317204, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00401028378379545, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011438535215385034, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01462969294004205, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012716494811576525, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0016457801788084033, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01493597042293418, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012971609262435724, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010008543782635196, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010980306823459081, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007158333576706485, "adv_selected": 0.0016457801788084033 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030489397030581924, "strength": 0.021454755309258864, "strength_record": 0.023793654456448723, "adv_record": 0.023740037202115545, "adv_strength": 0.01986176947365439, "adv_strength_record": 0.022418379455137024, "adv_full": 0.03606032409933661, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023806441796154088, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.039236463445816286, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.023675215212796797, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05524393292316216, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.10960954885333672, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008762868318173942, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01668191645025749, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04822589107710998, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01243408823476337, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04384656477226858, "adv_selected": 0.10960954885333672 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005932904570660204, "strength": 0.004507798816954289, "strength_record": 0.0038107671308136096, "adv_record": 0.002583359938168905, "adv_strength": 0.0037242858508131464, "adv_strength_record": 0.0023460781103123423, "adv_full": 0.004632766907420173, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0027342010100307092, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00507197899776353, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0064813956325733574, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006307131826388325, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014884951958613931, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005457913881625974, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005067366930946454, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005716989980461649, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006933720078712712, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0026733455376380558, "adv_selected": 0.0014884951958613931 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005932904570660204, "strength": 0.006622138919671864, "strength_record": 0.004668939476180548, "adv_record": 0.002583359938168905, "adv_strength": 0.005626766759028202, "adv_strength_record": 0.0024663936959275702, "adv_full": 0.005549536004621075, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032808549440796345, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005654438417241756, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018428988024829503, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0035277386651905458, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00038373522701090835, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014026318420025156, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010526285757242217, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0043870928759348945, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0017003605126104469, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006104608902548126, "adv_selected": 0.00038373522701090835 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005932904570660204, "strength": 0.006544963052811528, "strength_record": 0.004640126107261501, "adv_record": 0.002583359938168905, "adv_strength": 0.005556438615093436, "adv_strength_record": 0.002462636948750619, "adv_full": 0.004081888224167656, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003378522417484352, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004322011437486408, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003144316141131591, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010011248293593311, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0022431249069789715, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003755853080698156, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008208890606236762, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004776571830445111, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006555398069573861, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0027108621964673416, "adv_selected": 0.0022431249069789715 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00133971209583578, "strength": 0.0015558381987574423, "strength_record": 0.0008693217580206716, "adv_record": 0.00034392270858009166, "adv_strength": 0.0011894555479825106, "adv_strength_record": 0.00031565718679098036, "adv_full": 0.00024306781478953784, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00043272700043134815, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00024103074801372872, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0008352201314445779, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000666485693952745, "adv_add_player_availability": 5.157741134205561e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006688803314424419, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002768280823674449, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0003098795236407775, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0006500772013709115, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00023366115972870308, "adv_selected": 5.157741134205561e-05 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026273821632252718, "strength": 0.013541186537893933, "strength_record": 0.017026713508389777, "adv_record": 0.019404791843170458, "adv_strength": 0.012122002185138538, "adv_strength_record": 0.017519017528710556, "adv_full": 0.009119864373512572, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018964959179256172, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010026571082353232, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.034128204743838, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.007950831549543584, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005092771210432427, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018173471172069643, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018101989773586756, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.015549335516152353, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.018447238767309256, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009320476494179176, "adv_selected": 0.005092771210432427 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026273821632252718, "strength": 0.06495315630835792, "strength_record": 0.03896888386535491, "adv_record": 0.019404791843170458, "adv_strength": 0.06518994660942906, "adv_strength_record": 0.021481025628570637, "adv_full": 0.10327227920387826, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0178451287348329, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.11383032279615374, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0586854567181993, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.08700385455749111, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04933424312048933, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06045758046476289, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04449646801592973, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.08822977438430891, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.031159041913728903, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.09442776333166158, "adv_selected": 0.04933424312048933 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05529058556460079, "strength": 0.030198703407030996, "strength_record": 0.04111556291032349, "adv_record": 0.053182778420827914, "adv_strength": 0.028662266601560817, "adv_strength_record": 0.049468658574858416, "adv_full": 0.03179610441971154, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05108396028227007, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.036753127490434134, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02436569966551547, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05824787280135579, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.21006834736154317, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01059604576419942, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0326142126796916, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03984031580967574, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.020460398039022665, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04302527053161462, "adv_selected": 0.21006834736154317 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01075894572403875, "strength": 0.010118275805875205, "strength_record": 0.008425305594701464, "adv_record": 0.00578728070235026, "adv_strength": 0.008867364525611226, "adv_strength_record": 0.005500765832689298, "adv_full": 0.03993452967608571, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006720321615480263, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04054521768163133, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04051821266335485, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022835746850317442, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.007596874159945568, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.029203091282545144, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015327560001899452, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.035160654176139824, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004085384525931256, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04464200303745526, "adv_selected": 0.007596874159945568 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11635341424118241, "strength": 0.14002808055321955, "strength_record": 0.14613464983214616, "adv_record": 0.14575822010450157, "adv_strength": 0.1486369471784522, "adv_strength_record": 0.1536340425922197, "adv_full": 0.018487090025700675, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12066300663192171, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020026071386340112, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10576420259558321, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.018343252917968584, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.05020471162648563, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.038770109457539836, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.057590154557509515, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.034862498243839773, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09203404511499333, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.023835406621531073, "adv_selected": 0.05020471162648563 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012485194289665786, "strength": 0.008019733755683345, "strength_record": 0.008167043718900206, "adv_record": 0.0070802232914049645, "adv_strength": 0.006910122425317019, "adv_strength_record": 0.0064328273658701566, "adv_full": 0.0042332105724192095, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006611081694966776, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005644532983365443, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006782325623702636, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008957814882732099, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0036984521034954592, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00473019407100329, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01993586223874601, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0030475686437607306, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0044960584907746135, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0050736228647493475, "adv_selected": 0.0036984521034954592 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05529058556460079, "strength": 0.03014235689577415, "strength_record": 0.04107503358598791, "adv_record": 0.053182778420827914, "adv_strength": 0.028604890374290915, "adv_strength_record": 0.04945664656000054, "adv_full": 0.018659970183985596, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05774905213520357, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018739421510713682, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04200483163526904, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.020632489558743545, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015459144486174645, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.031425995788083486, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.035788852629662936, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.025528547383619562, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05247166121718706, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.017284816916215553, "adv_selected": 0.015459144486174645 } } ] }, { "season": 2016, "champion": "CLE", "cutoffDate": "2015-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.6885852208902874 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1980318504107106, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3173219813609152 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.5064086099717824, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.29456783844611756, "record": 1.44551330703661 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.241431019967963, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14846648342761914, "record": 0.36154793791560974, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07970012774702709, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.196497181221628, "prior_net_rating": 0.3695280461412529, "retained_minutes_share": 0.18776266759991, "rotation_box_production": 0.2381099820430575, "star_box_production": 0.49465586843313103, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10752376877255052, "efg_pct": 0.2680758503065006, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15005689395570435, "turnover_rate": 0.12667681614424992, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13462414336732906, "oreb_pct": 0.13862149458765444, "dreb_pct": 0.0006429741877902001, "ft_rate": -0.04582161581359587, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14459042651500373, "pace": 0.09445657653911993, "three_attempt_rate": -0.09949077597025396, "three_pct": 0.2124429566645661, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.023022715561449004, "opp_three_pct": 0.026641025922856585 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.224267564784658, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.6165331874585471, "record": 1.4615803989885028, "adjusted_off_rating": -1.2551179862340052, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.9785594045233906 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2449065835283264, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.17350944407768856, "record": 0.3787492161461113, "prior_net_rating": 0.3626247921311207, "retained_minutes_share": 0.18104241854950612, "rotation_box_production": 0.2292927412990984, "star_box_production": 0.4838853165826302, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10558672011055543, "efg_pct": 0.2365906712948863, "opp_efg_pct": -0.21415739712449083, "turnover_rate": 0.16646002301078822, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.18297578459843328, "oreb_pct": 0.12794566352244538, "dreb_pct": 0.034814911984492006, "ft_rate": -0.05408465151245619, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16408830829792692, "pace": 0.10896399546183677, "three_attempt_rate": -0.10657030398888434, "three_pct": 0.19894083592653927, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.043839600181569925, "opp_three_pct": 0.00534869313596206 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2609868723551476, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.37367563199143694, "record": 0.524957006430439, "prior_net_rating": 0.47447966516680484, "retained_minutes_share": 0.21432214481791592 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.490635286383518, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14684403961220846, "record": 0.3951570657133745, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.08089246320075362, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17178636334524158, "rotation_box_production": 0.2869662188885458, "star_box_production": 0.5401649892048057, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10979185757553483, "efg_pct": 0.2526111311289046, "opp_efg_pct": -0.12598121238032378, "turnover_rate": 0.10873249306624028, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13438543308829537, "oreb_pct": 0.10948008457101405, "dreb_pct": 0.028154383668418576, "ft_rate": -0.04089072336662637, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17690368685015156, "pace": 0.10655187828247366, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08513898905681237, "three_pct": 0.21441323316583097, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.04331677882915116, "opp_three_pct": 0.04069351170157511 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.252246780824804, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.31606428820545285, "record": 1.1150474964185237, "rotation_box_production": 0.26820889758407673, "star_box_production": 0.8489852821126612, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.26170523443571025 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9400792973918495, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16976544970503846, "record": 0.384678079752669, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.028524728803838564, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.16922649865589787, "prior_net_rating": 0.5034181659869444, "retained_minutes_share": 0.20868956625977847, "efg_pct": 0.37222268950347176, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14481920081240862, "turnover_rate": 0.08745059328024188, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13131949604637938, "oreb_pct": 0.07583222618567824, "dreb_pct": 0.017852850028395977, "ft_rate": 0.002590715446572205, "opp_ft_rate": -0.13379349430536475, "pace": 0.1289751443812635, "three_attempt_rate": -0.13354274229260737, "three_pct": 0.2317123850455884, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.009913048473228226, "opp_three_pct": 0.015176080525871155 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4899163098144577, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.09007111808099176, "record": 0.9710499764347864, "efg_pct": 0.7812162115771678, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17337339916701042, "turnover_rate": 0.09285464174777859, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.3367636449292447, "oreb_pct": 0.163835028606349, "dreb_pct": 0.22686277462749244, "ft_rate": -0.0006807325924879244, "opp_ft_rate": -0.3175836455968078 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.61469035623325, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21536616559904428, "record": 0.4190040133290536, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07467826983494277, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.27335501287078096, "prior_net_rating": 0.343663939721219, "retained_minutes_share": 0.18625412785811124, "rotation_box_production": 0.2284612853874905, "star_box_production": 0.49595729586689397, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11710993157387035, "pace": 0.1422119750924128, "three_attempt_rate": -0.06180658618562734, "three_pct": 0.2749819185374697, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.01327425246669371, "opp_three_pct": -0.002074648639279818 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1187896357906992, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.33056786091589135, "record": 1.1768209529783575, "pace": 0.3929729641197151, "three_attempt_rate": -0.1788353197363772, "three_pct": 0.41846538915743875, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.0814481958826497, "opp_three_pct": 0.10098173988393404 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.373703722817151, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16693136271604728, "record": 0.3757106031138146, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.06254953657524363, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.19986903880545756, "prior_net_rating": 0.35460436110406496, "retained_minutes_share": 0.20322344863419053, "rotation_box_production": 0.2544519336832206, "star_box_production": 0.4950141985000444, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.12155158286301684, "efg_pct": 0.3099554687667896, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14854813533506026, "turnover_rate": 0.13548744903231386, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1488452302880023, "oreb_pct": 0.13504990230048, "dreb_pct": -0.001916973524839826, "ft_rate": -0.05288805872129898, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14856841001011434 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2015, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.196616608717292, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9400792973918495, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2015 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666655, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.21828585627204, "brier": 0.8699645803560749, "championProbability": 0.10879544010131938, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.772632194271118, "brier": 1.009645700460648, "championProbability": 0.062497283057097376, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.411860578957385, "brier": 0.9644331871656396, "championProbability": 0.08964834148797547, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.0442248696527705, "brier": 0.8972871748241961, "championProbability": 0.12948051536655655, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.7970633352563046, "brier": 1.0531174784239121, "championProbability": 0.0609889038620416, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.154846930484225, "brier": 0.9629066146798453, "championProbability": 0.11592093321603386, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 4.063164643815665, "brier": 1.494737869178988, "championProbability": 0.01719451839684273, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.3954722903882617, "brier": 0.9033176687538865, "championProbability": 0.09112962910947735, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 4.024621557232477, "brier": 1.4826392727799156, "championProbability": 0.017870185716339675, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.72769344562118, "brier": 1.0550132802136523, "championProbability": 0.0653698951293673, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 3.567917396851909, "brier": 1.301909231271909, "championProbability": 0.02821455225151068, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.4957313262624115, "brier": 1.536829421513572, "championProbability": 0.030326561713714614, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.406649415541018, "brier": 1.2732730331988373, "championProbability": 0.03315209338282109, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.3376583663825663, "brier": 1.0302249344735386, "championProbability": 0.09655346656688427, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 3.9487529139425273, "brier": 1.4709591428507844, "championProbability": 0.01927872902442146, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.2046311218573997, "brier": 1.290253897508313, "championProbability": 0.040573865689960256, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.742770945469447, "brier": 1.4397109969505477, "championProbability": 0.02368837291633037, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 3.4957313262624115, "brier": 1.536829421513572, "championProbability": 0.030326561713714614, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07315612970218058, "strength": 0.03306712930582607, "strength_record": 0.0499464035716793, "adv_record": 0.07508593765722797, "adv_strength": 0.02994392232502597, "adv_strength_record": 0.06201522669129724, "adv_full": 0.025919754788971083, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05809337867668351, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02852899985643946, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06516855010320206, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03095943214588636, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017551392707056898, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.062045938211585584, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.11033513109711864, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.022913631632070643, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03767214083841431, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03266731250811692, "adv_selected": 0.017551392707056898 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014966594580371282, "strength": 0.0016235647394299347, "strength_record": 0.0009494088869721215, "adv_record": 0.0003601054236056219, "adv_strength": 0.0010318498552067564, "adv_strength_record": 0.00030208827438714907, "adv_full": 0.00025876530442429485, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0014312394814081396, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000272359027505119, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0015500594211389589, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0006046333625619496, "adv_add_player_availability": 8.825345541067605e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0005092368674704036, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0005424639932131133, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00025259353819211, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00012936974281351236, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00038440464600655465, "adv_selected": 8.825345541067605e-05 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011061582276036234, "strength": 0.024696900790125664, "strength_record": 0.013864314302397393, "adv_record": 0.005612088990292872, "adv_strength": 0.02161047469218341, "adv_strength_record": 0.006259523127158203, "adv_full": 0.002846590678143375, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011643089450453331, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0029904625890861116, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01175188570648256, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005149637811999727, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008305383125416266, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007754536858672302, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004015023532335229, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0036338471298949177, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008518154641741152, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0030510750887916926, "adv_selected": 0.0008305383125416266 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007925649773624607, "strength": 0.024230984402510293, "strength_record": 0.011256669734295842, "adv_record": 0.0035509296467900473, "adv_strength": 0.02115539947819833, "adv_strength_record": 0.00421023812168337, "adv_full": 0.0008429266038316297, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0037976614768582303, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009299345639569906, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00632573403149471, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002803328313998521, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.000815103269047674, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0028771781329371437, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007011379336498906, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014860815093481112, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0036396533637317176, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009224648632566009, "adv_selected": 0.000815103269047674 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.034076719146229735, "strength": 0.021356641385187104, "strength_record": 0.024965731978896028, "adv_record": 0.026303613996506367, "adv_strength": 0.018371349474780717, "adv_strength_record": 0.022651009921201216, "adv_full": 0.01977062019930876, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04994659020338266, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016754448521407353, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.038618453280963895, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02386788889489343, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011338703588342878, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.029290753374547913, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008680577411563896, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03558841720508462, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03378111392503915, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01627950508583134, "adv_selected": 0.011338703588342878 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.10879544010131938, "strength": 0.062497283057097376, "strength_record": 0.08964834148797547, "adv_record": 0.12948051536655655, "adv_strength": 0.0609889038620416, "adv_strength_record": 0.11592093321603386, "adv_full": 0.01719451839684273, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09112962910947735, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017870185716339675, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0653698951293673, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02821455225151068, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.030326561713714614, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03315209338282109, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09655346656688427, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01927872902442146, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.040573865689960256, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02368837291633037, "adv_selected": 0.030326561713714614 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018238571447932117, "strength": 0.012935508710309445, "strength_record": 0.013082581846359624, "adv_record": 0.01115060086661434, "adv_strength": 0.010490873453854802, "adv_strength_record": 0.00958543677605654, "adv_full": 0.0008261965449394549, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019819308459516766, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007630508031150259, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0157440701653587, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013807314439001962, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007361710210996384, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004007947542817003, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0027454284896785658, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00243743247437556, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004001705962743691, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010527342280337079, "adv_selected": 0.0007361710210996384 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012760475085942198, "strength": 0.008931345855121453, "strength_record": 0.008636246352551048, "adv_record": 0.00682836992515403, "adv_strength": 0.006935014086495711, "adv_strength_record": 0.005742381453664072, "adv_full": 0.0009736007006777379, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01184514451468436, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009645405067112376, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0075228173180346275, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0019555946794398175, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.000522352879881595, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0038283937789815826, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0033502343912479153, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014966352074007635, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005099616325870473, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009848685760178418, "adv_selected": 0.000522352879881595 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0532552887209714, "strength": 0.036627994039268544, "strength_record": 0.04375448305186128, "adv_record": 0.04855589458002275, "adv_strength": 0.03356936633847108, "adv_strength_record": 0.04380590354491013, "adv_full": 0.0074773594131129165, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06274619241856996, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007339386159470548, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.017307627822589256, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022517378497731146, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013454036605414894, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010238644962251285, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.047051527712527935, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007044784721423747, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.020143751998779658, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009170986883998694, "adv_selected": 0.013454036605414894 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.22225863517248576, "strength": 0.3260570196511609, "strength_record": 0.33917960838343253, "adv_record": 0.34527638723572773, "adv_strength": 0.38633417819453386, "adv_strength_record": 0.4055821163230042, "adv_full": 0.7191333487490488, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2139561212494287, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.7106893027792051, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.40085056536846153, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.5802172325260211, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.7692763189170116, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.5646321034695292, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.4279513629139601, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.707871674478864, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.6005442367126268, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.6873358994639389, "adv_selected": 0.7692763189170116 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026068425056351485, "strength": 0.007259231725772274, "strength_record": 0.011778712018139341, "adv_record": 0.01820872346539364, "adv_strength": 0.0055010466521467315, "adv_strength_record": 0.012625292656697113, "adv_full": 0.0032326709192882705, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022034107758908513, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003592805714200073, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01620697814660932, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006059203095232338, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004609387589191668, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004709832627477304, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00922338056749634, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004220982224463023, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004684875091286288, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005205685453601131, "adv_selected": 0.004609387589191668 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018238571447932117, "strength": 0.015152238348510764, "strength_record": 0.014268908354460347, "adv_record": 0.01115060086661434, "adv_strength": 0.01251914372729214, "adv_strength_record": 0.009971878124869347, "adv_full": 0.0022257676677312215, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02069214217221597, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00216623704502221, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011339547292895071, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004554139643451708, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008795117665506483, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0073499306126926, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006568933038160433, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002822238690664359, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008051223442887003, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0021753558881741253, "adv_selected": 0.0008795117665506483 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0532552887209714, "strength": 0.027588769728244224, "strength_record": 0.03745231368941061, "adv_record": 0.04855589458002275, "adv_strength": 0.02445701835538647, "adv_strength_record": 0.04081100140916787, "adv_full": 0.010878374383826543, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04862166585256906, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011112568447677182, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04976803609050212, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014943732960782802, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02445133939685436, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019831465108167513, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.020193147752478, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01789163711131999, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015432698184695889, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0171200628868381, "adv_selected": 0.02445133939685436 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0034441252437716454, "strength": 0.0045926704956059435, "strength_record": 0.0027551920736764986, "adv_record": 0.0011308001700791746, "adv_strength": 0.003298094385482962, "adv_strength_record": 0.0010432725678856589, "adv_full": 5.853990777420719e-05, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017353918755083643, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 6.922703919550571e-05, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0019111125153818257, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00022319154675314235, "adv_add_player_availability": 6.289607453344554e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00031183220226304806, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000258961854861388, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0002138574921915939, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008243347536011066, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 7.304986616172639e-05, "adv_selected": 6.289607453344554e-05 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009761664174120726, "strength": 0.0030176409049511668, "strength_record": 0.004061138783151898, "adv_record": 0.004726951197772849, "adv_strength": 0.0020627106031239273, "adv_strength_record": 0.0031959094961144293, "adv_full": 0.0006218227261987245, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0106101881233842, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005860104075862497, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010251090956121882, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000789140630012204, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005623448893416881, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001612725240824872, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006962038686322766, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013558216627508745, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.000987489227802578, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0008766536600334487, "adv_selected": 0.0005623448893416881 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026068425056351485, "strength": 0.056117661956548916, "strength_record": 0.036184816054360636, "adv_record": 0.01820872346539364, "adv_strength": 0.0540749311706452, "adv_strength_record": 0.021046835753829256, "adv_full": 0.011265389687851733, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026749251354285877, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010174279363299498, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019507517529183865, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.025310094936373387, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.014806031379849255, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012689293025887284, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017438459571681567, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01516459160603332, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009203656213953654, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014586852805729373, "adv_selected": 0.014806031379849255 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026068425056351485, "strength": 0.0060235958544564445, "strength_record": 0.010632313057076018, "adv_record": 0.01820872346539364, "adv_strength": 0.00446571477917455, "adv_strength_record": 0.012050151177736676, "adv_full": 0.0017150305869406955, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019397518697838123, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0021119016864608827, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010813259619593712, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003164754867865164, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0012005502038764501, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005291739384558418, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006738166937584947, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001834686625152176, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006857409160592735, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0017635501450480784, "adv_selected": 0.0012005502038764501 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04197075293035528, "strength": 0.028990884316716353, "strength_record": 0.03341188451417864, "adv_record": 0.035015027627747296, "adv_strength": 0.025850072049553273, "adv_strength_record": 0.031232630369505326, "adv_full": 0.0017221120801260727, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05993630043467988, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016443493704902984, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009164079634383161, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0067127975140076415, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003172806062849456, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0057375710606818574, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012604493682804287, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0033405950411795407, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02681236203066201, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0016337291842034132, "adv_selected": 0.003172806062849456 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014966594580371282, "strength": 0.0035425808242696547, "strength_record": 0.0014568218421655585, "adv_record": 0.0003601054236056219, "adv_strength": 0.002467589175505318, "adv_strength_record": 0.00036711796486017204, "adv_full": 0.0014871933439597142, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005679313024312572, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0015816208506498892, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003986838515208688, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0027818247854463863, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006563411346732824, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001664202755265966, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0005331908125317745, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003053798406255208, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0007426061063808704, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0014338654423819244, "adv_selected": 0.0006563411346732824 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012760475085942198, "strength": 0.015089054698079139, "strength_record": 0.011516123007334634, "adv_record": 0.00682836992515403, "adv_strength": 0.012460821569623973, "adv_strength_record": 0.006546375570493497, "adv_full": 0.0003595492327301651, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012249608195917763, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00037372367519767047, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003041688538541766, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0017046680441496942, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006584520853838269, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0009202584046866998, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0017285689276732793, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006754392448512373, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00473269367047376, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0004028098462310947, "adv_selected": 0.0006584520853838269 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026068425056351485, "strength": 0.04444289753470629, "strength_record": 0.03183734183203229, "adv_record": 0.01820872346539364, "adv_strength": 0.04166764470821375, "adv_strength_record": 0.01985521980665388, "adv_full": 0.06064605262909079, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011703066410709942, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0783645356186368, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03347313265400906, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.09199106286756037, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.042985542531484726, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04095000831848276, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04265641887237307, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03998408279539985, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03943523715109338, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.05326263122361267, "adv_selected": 0.042985542531484726 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009761664174120726, "strength": 0.012215506862540432, "strength_record": 0.008747607696319826, "adv_record": 0.004726951197772849, "adv_strength": 0.009840514461637797, "adv_strength_record": 0.0045324434282046355, "adv_full": 0.001817771325518284, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012058474986515619, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0015404156556350073, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006097615307700039, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003942306387807535, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009182871790562611, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0039677204219677, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0031524040764853998, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002490465609893295, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0030958971860583074, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002104515317156083, "adv_selected": 0.0009182871790562611 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014966594580371282, "strength": 0.001893922196474659, "strength_record": 0.001033147589396596, "adv_record": 0.0003601054236056219, "adv_strength": 0.001225652017744941, "adv_strength_record": 0.00031394166025785385, "adv_full": 6.312812549302126e-05, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012826971519097224, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 7.058490392871808e-05, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0006949939015850801, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0002772117275468376, "adv_add_player_availability": 1.1464801450248153e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00035253075130149274, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006181123318276874, "adv_without_four_factors": 6.711098005159518e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00030270586015387446, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 6.936242139594078e-05, "adv_selected": 1.1464801450248153e-05 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012760475085942198, "strength": 0.016614909593330042, "strength_record": 0.012141291869472748, "adv_record": 0.00682836992515403, "adv_strength": 0.013877053949208218, "adv_strength_record": 0.00670586600480232, "adv_full": 0.0033765198090888768, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013885991354881317, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0029490077485189938, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009694813090760082, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.007950947827704684, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0024496144562373753, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006212110281002789, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004261824057550574, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006742578698000035, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01132684194997965, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0029573431027190254, "adv_selected": 0.0024496144562373753 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018238571447932117, "strength": 0.01829991850817635, "strength_record": 0.01582615047656708, "adv_record": 0.01115060086661434, "adv_strength": 0.015458830507727225, "adv_strength_record": 0.010453463079230068, "adv_full": 0.003216624105532199, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00822258267426036, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0037663560677526947, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.017439394852643796, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005066540051536054, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0021664485193371237, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011869536399304, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013347261546955364, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004065932160044469, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009036959008270357, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00357292735825745, "adv_selected": 0.0021664485193371237 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0027963398424421097, "strength": 0.0040612679984249845, "strength_record": 0.0022757621566658563, "adv_record": 0.0008494675913771355, "adv_strength": 0.0028746560239576824, "adv_strength_record": 0.000791951288628139, "adv_full": 0.000422604576025008, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001728428608904115, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00048436841328966215, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0019953154448705494, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012469333880870328, "adv_add_player_availability": 7.157741660103473e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00197405820111234, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.001879166600257679, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005425754959864052, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002159928135926071, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.000311267320349713, "adv_selected": 7.157741660103473e-05 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0532552887209714, "strength": 0.0906160850184169, "strength_record": 0.07192951009114351, "adv_record": 0.04855589458002275, "adv_strength": 0.09237379382283972, "adv_strength_record": 0.05493300409144875, "adv_full": 0.0800153524429248, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05944265917170066, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07254554357175419, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07962779321341625, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.09437408303912126, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.035437282004392646, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.10644392350992518, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.11287018186270414, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.05834450891774109, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.04117530484036412, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.09530894519967716, "adv_selected": 0.035437282004392646 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0532552887209714, "strength": 0.03490273713472117, "strength_record": 0.042611191494104146, "adv_record": 0.04855589458002275, "adv_strength": 0.03180738601252983, "adv_strength_record": 0.043280946692010956, "adv_full": 0.007956680963302551, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07168817675587658, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0077339224575701995, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03185825521650492, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013324434691089683, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011739329397763407, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01445930268158376, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01152413498512903, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.013143639239704397, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025781343447386938, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008545692958571011, "adv_selected": 0.011739329397763407 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04197075293035528, "strength": 0.05001719648652892, "strength_record": 0.0450695389332196, "adv_record": 0.035015027627747296, "adv_strength": 0.04754932534845288, "adv_strength_record": 0.03579270601700972, "adv_full": 0.009804857798831987, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.057611742978915935, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007573216330207776, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04017806261649987, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011597365851311998, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00715021152579267, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02082224535101504, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008003457894598128, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018394487889703836, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02247193924766923, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009338864197557197, "adv_selected": 0.00715021152579267 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018238571447932117, "strength": 0.007536857877488547, "strength_record": 0.009726444870703543, "adv_record": 0.01115060086661434, "adv_strength": 0.005736668918960946, "adv_strength_record": 0.008375135391198357, "adv_full": 0.003870276308464136, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01537371909812394, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004456655109689767, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01274081651649528, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006315156216217193, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010711491152581919, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014492887080186022, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017466935313186025, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0036471431875376697, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01278088608904118, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0037192114619787483, "adv_selected": 0.0010711491152581919 } } ] }, { "season": 2017, "champion": "GSW", "cutoffDate": "2016-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.730137867997016 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1788059778159683, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.290589872855407 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.5427404506323477, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.18339088649986246, "record": 1.5693420831312794 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2306080087824958, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.13211840439744835, "record": 0.3940033221451674, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.09381358536919632, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17752266770253075, "prior_net_rating": 0.3497876634351019, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10779076020175242, "rotation_box_production": 0.19211055841044952, "star_box_production": 0.46360389466535623, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.04428943896664605, "efg_pct": 0.2751234691718891, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1461783349547303, "turnover_rate": 0.12466319855990815, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0878918622243474, "oreb_pct": 0.12331169946042422, "dreb_pct": 0.05807619256663708, "ft_rate": -0.06357447702813791, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16450600220608072, "pace": 0.021014282135104253, "three_attempt_rate": -0.09356825906656814, "three_pct": 0.16464719772233263, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.006342237594788025, "opp_three_pct": 0.023156225206229477 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.454129699663534, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2514828701497178, "record": 1.5885503749845755, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.9765694249567579, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.7600188531478573 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2637272968858184, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15209484794649647, "record": 0.4078253291683419, "prior_net_rating": 0.34468464588875786, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10342777523070387, "rotation_box_production": 0.18307622180628016, "star_box_production": 0.453192818614582, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.044512751627702025, "efg_pct": 0.24131335443803487, "opp_efg_pct": -0.20778179860969176, "turnover_rate": 0.1635656350644616, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13647167297129553, "oreb_pct": 0.1102433406748627, "dreb_pct": 0.09028800896313588, "ft_rate": -0.07335609473911998, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18338996089547635, "pace": 0.03424182092405183, "three_attempt_rate": -0.10063684242138116, "three_pct": 0.1512398728451344, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.02654892838408533, "opp_three_pct": 0.002226460560071054 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4814412079648136, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.35785813535082267, "record": 0.5519358915445486, "prior_net_rating": 0.46900019597571047, "retained_minutes_share": 0.15576785994796968 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5202675562882257, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1376117596490937, "record": 0.4269541420363827, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.08751900780738142, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.16466759280650736, "rotation_box_production": 0.24499361620529547, "star_box_production": 0.5111473119793338, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0455651897114479, "efg_pct": 0.2644827489785231, "opp_efg_pct": -0.13087605835423755, "turnover_rate": 0.10161023128969211, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08793795594137264, "oreb_pct": 0.10101742651697561, "dreb_pct": 0.08086151319420089, "ft_rate": -0.060673265375466155, "opp_ft_rate": -0.19059815544196876, "pace": 0.0351128670998014, "three_attempt_rate": -0.06862649478607796, "three_pct": 0.16828930382597773, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.03227207096215321, "opp_three_pct": 0.03288222330996195 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4167056078281917, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.18513089472272598, "record": 1.1810521151082207, "rotation_box_production": 0.16176151614924414, "star_box_production": 0.7925088806142587, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10073057194991678 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1345358010006694, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15898798536756079, "record": 0.41618870265636865, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03527124198535142, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.15981130428616963, "prior_net_rating": 0.4808164715913659, "retained_minutes_share": 0.13654208117127623, "efg_pct": 0.3758792416088978, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14059046948700682, "turnover_rate": 0.08261066577451698, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08242727978222053, "oreb_pct": 0.0780262558861606, "dreb_pct": 0.07323205609475761, "ft_rate": -0.019833293680814826, "opp_ft_rate": -0.151881136951378, "pace": 0.06452160822226503, "three_attempt_rate": -0.12195898712441117, "three_pct": 0.1833300912939971, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.01562126317448477, "opp_three_pct": 0.01486493701955178 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.604507948030278, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.15854008966643107, "record": 1.0544446640997336, "efg_pct": 0.7904490081990545, "opp_efg_pct": -0.21842402684362364, "turnover_rate": 0.06759516623269447, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.2210390873206053, "oreb_pct": 0.1883421961813321, "dreb_pct": 0.3121027092182057, "ft_rate": -0.06803218996926534, "opp_ft_rate": -0.3221619276697038 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.580061357501915, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.19723228836046552, "record": 0.4492725787205023, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.08791426790852333, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.25457187064475273, "prior_net_rating": 0.3329329674015807, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10949095277034643, "rotation_box_production": 0.19335355073459962, "star_box_production": 0.47009510882400124, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.05794322023812792, "pace": 0.05755556017557726, "three_attempt_rate": -0.0575554486957893, "three_pct": 0.2255874339621277, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.006319206273898461, "opp_three_pct": 0.004172123565654398 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3475350455596775, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.25021654608481025, "record": 1.24975902766454, "pace": 0.24827983634597545, "three_attempt_rate": -0.13580627310965912, "three_pct": 0.3265866980575309, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.07859359828055211, "opp_three_pct": 0.09266726157220315 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.477569647697182, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14567145488479616, "record": 0.40529541828127885, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07767292400616176, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17597992893463263, "prior_net_rating": 0.33676275863485455, "retained_minutes_share": 0.11916492129946998, "rotation_box_production": 0.20142620864222563, "star_box_production": 0.4664090979622742, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.05752130323653828, "efg_pct": 0.3037270908634783, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1457066136382247, "turnover_rate": 0.1231995594586364, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09264873207827552, "oreb_pct": 0.12000278016613526, "dreb_pct": 0.057312517072484435, "ft_rate": -0.0742718648094041, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16405545520568005 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3898859008113114, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1345358010006694, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.640507861042893, "brier": 0.9387859534620864, "championProbability": 0.07132503714889987, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 3.227950375758081, "brier": 1.0922757596576083, "championProbability": 0.039638659943387604, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.8472840563935464, "brier": 1.0090372268452452, "championProbability": 0.058001636321527814, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.6245663101115397, "brier": 0.9721327728410224, "championProbability": 0.07247118023787005, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 3.3071945419073194, "brier": 1.1456740745582794, "championProbability": 0.036618762185398473, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.674506722180196, "brier": 0.986937813918371, "championProbability": 0.06894082698942965, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.2039809059392055, "brier": 0.5524631599968276, "championProbability": 0.29999756952586454, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.987998558184171, "brier": 1.0280045605900265, "championProbability": 0.05038818488942616, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.067045726122409, "brier": 0.4808746204345128, "championProbability": 0.3440233568402004, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.2250573430144636, "brier": 0.8728700471181235, "championProbability": 0.10806122190095087, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.3585542501048555, "brier": 0.6149399765898838, "championProbability": 0.2570321126094867, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.1394245083454189, "brier": 0.5490592619897013, "championProbability": 0.3200031279650304, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.997871315300285, "brier": 0.8293460413559317, "championProbability": 0.1356236762233397, "topPick": "ATL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.0404501760536813, "brier": 0.8617854320592387, "championProbability": 0.12997018824023088, "topPick": "ATL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.5561394664053703, "brier": 0.7158807505725215, "championProbability": 0.21094887648464603, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.503962103168024, "brier": 0.9357450354915197, "championProbability": 0.08176041283661112, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.073399158369851, "brier": 0.4918498401169452, "championProbability": 0.3418445565102518, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.1394245083454189, "brier": 0.5490592619897013, "championProbability": 0.3200031279650304, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07132503714889987, "strength": 0.0794983347261047, "strength_record": 0.08336620543696345, "adv_record": 0.07247118023787005, "adv_strength": 0.07867165966340736, "adv_strength_record": 0.0768545321297903, "adv_full": 0.11253143307490784, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08553636078765904, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10687024056332728, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07581870443098981, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10710023186011103, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03357742255397681, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.18902102934536494, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.26302992580356166, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0626041870114848, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.11578667877944876, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10232704154643422, "adv_selected": 0.03357742255397681 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008229164981423601, "strength": 0.006161342892725419, "strength_record": 0.00579982357468071, "adv_record": 0.003716085755222767, "adv_strength": 0.004735299195175636, "adv_strength_record": 0.003483857509080793, "adv_full": 0.002612099760948639, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0038605949549936533, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002632156728797608, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003363739582844612, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006680275092946003, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001474246487674297, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00378632309600956, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010855445843224244, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0020110907131476318, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004749811568664248, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003035750749614052, "adv_selected": 0.001474246487674297 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011203133662395122, "strength": 0.007571880599176098, "strength_record": 0.0078116251868232045, "adv_record": 0.0056804509511627155, "adv_strength": 0.005939165966924049, "adv_strength_record": 0.005286991532300329, "adv_full": 0.0037520422531094593, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003954892880355265, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004129388222293084, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.016364756228157754, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00332992965773549, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014697539234589105, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.013320996225313552, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006988791179461473, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00427012468762959, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010449551473306002, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003187311095745571, "adv_selected": 0.0014697539234589105 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.13219331785778154, "strength": 0.05372632538119041, "strength_record": 0.09944878523590216, "adv_record": 0.16933998128499808, "adv_strength": 0.05114773971682811, "adv_strength_record": 0.15611187426797918, "adv_full": 0.017992273253235075, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.18018366344965217, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01604955920359226, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0808463303460962, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01964867566865313, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.020967185804925785, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06015725992862589, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09811465635227413, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02621634370932372, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09377112321791127, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019799899680097967, "adv_selected": 0.020967185804925785 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016903806593462665, "strength": 0.031727071108432314, "strength_record": 0.02124725587351574, "adv_record": 0.010002585286948362, "adv_strength": 0.028671948703253503, "adv_strength_record": 0.011047339076765755, "adv_full": 0.010198461962073737, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009363928245988428, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010768392282434893, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014275608870903062, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016865395512980635, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003766038258150126, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01730472630950733, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.022804258334076427, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007248141022020175, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.019334915363901087, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008081047671693115, "adv_selected": 0.003766038258150126 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.13219331785778154, "strength": 0.03626285337661701, "strength_record": 0.08102231649073502, "adv_record": 0.16933998128499808, "adv_strength": 0.03320668496394246, "adv_strength_record": 0.14681760244315903, "adv_full": 0.06190098085381886, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.1240138827142294, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06219846030705096, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10903825742578038, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.056083426663402935, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.13293702306288882, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06783337286910951, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08385159617697131, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.07952774070046177, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.1189151895138641, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06619750833248383, "adv_selected": 0.13293702306288882 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004006148314408542, "strength": 0.0072213319181637075, "strength_record": 0.004040960526406095, "adv_record": 0.001380572416432009, "adv_strength": 0.005637727652249862, "adv_strength_record": 0.001454670464417077, "adv_full": 0.0015623878241171156, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001832957899822802, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012699620404097564, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005700171507555973, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002118789712060146, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004741236276208418, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0033048373438183346, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026177251094582, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001983440122072143, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0013390591045555629, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0016857331825506968, "adv_selected": 0.0004741236276208418 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011203133662395122, "strength": 0.021393571992170766, "strength_record": 0.013423880089113504, "adv_record": 0.0056804509511627155, "adv_strength": 0.018594868254800157, "adv_strength_record": 0.006217878680860517, "adv_full": 0.009464334774277269, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006920437884200188, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009248648847231755, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012448859075831126, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013914955878789175, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0039049426557912015, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01308324860288775, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006131828937005397, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011550086037451779, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01485175281569861, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007482987108919015, "adv_selected": 0.0039049426557912015 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016903806593462665, "strength": 0.017380036199558333, "strength_record": 0.01552573782551811, "adv_record": 0.010002585286948362, "adv_strength": 0.014799301140198543, "adv_strength_record": 0.010056450504223496, "adv_full": 0.012455691460980986, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012467589614172592, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0109674096458048, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015322307929488894, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016745801611068697, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006141245896225137, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015556851062885547, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007257183024269043, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.015354928285569149, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.018273966139777425, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009314746964598742, "adv_selected": 0.006141245896225137 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07132503714889987, "strength": 0.039638659943387604, "strength_record": 0.058001636321527814, "adv_record": 0.07247118023787005, "adv_strength": 0.036618762185398473, "adv_strength_record": 0.06894082698942965, "adv_full": 0.29999756952586454, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05038818488942616, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.3440233568402004, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10806122190095087, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.2570321126094867, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.3200031279650304, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.1356236762233397, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.12997018824023088, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.21094887648464603, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08176041283661112, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.3418445565102518, "adv_selected": 0.3200031279650304 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03472268182667553, "strength": 0.03462720338756668, "strength_record": 0.034671503029731925, "adv_record": 0.026923951440587283, "adv_strength": 0.03156455064191564, "adv_strength_record": 0.027494757163657284, "adv_full": 0.03654951116313771, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020776457815855333, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03985543919952797, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02658381123957567, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.052608812201364694, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03861739070000088, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03311488085497191, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06921222239237372, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.025149500728487078, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03475862730663993, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03939232158458204, "adv_selected": 0.03861739070000088 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016903806593462665, "strength": 0.007340998687259122, "strength_record": 0.009906978009479896, "adv_record": 0.010002585286948362, "adv_strength": 0.0057404704953068686, "adv_strength_record": 0.008790235279216076, "adv_full": 0.010743398579116032, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007590425505341714, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012255061688092388, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01336480691035453, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013150648977974633, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0035196167552056638, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.022829041964586728, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.024819129847392145, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.008665437581325023, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.024005723832976045, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007364518062203705, "adv_selected": 0.0035196167552056638 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.14651117530857546, "strength": 0.3853644476898664, "strength_record": 0.29593703455504355, "adv_record": 0.19507062240323544, "adv_strength": 0.4457519511864486, "adv_strength_record": 0.24141785941210328, "adv_full": 0.16593748959134058, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2416969644468758, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.14145693115464514, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.18719807235879712, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1709625235789769, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.22518306431108084, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.15804893801760744, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09352106431378913, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.24403026492463256, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.21259489426332118, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.16994702804296724, "adv_selected": 0.22518306431108084 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016903806593462665, "strength": 0.01794641525272306, "strength_record": 0.015787452948374966, "adv_record": 0.010002585286948362, "adv_strength": 0.01533009676776675, "adv_strength_record": 0.01010693218452781, "adv_full": 0.0027378026531129163, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00959958463484468, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032529805951554275, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007031390589072881, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005558545782108198, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0019544954738656643, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006772097712506074, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017624351887101316, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002276289749283893, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01317054602749621, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0029973423330849074, "adv_selected": 0.0019544954738656643 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016903806593462665, "strength": 0.004029326106877455, "strength_record": 0.00724664708513897, "adv_record": 0.010002585286948362, "adv_strength": 0.00296942754362022, "adv_strength_record": 0.008004261815111005, "adv_full": 0.0021872595031120863, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010775077604000729, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0019746306197951876, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008396455739682455, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002862071923222824, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014725719448913164, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004552148203666377, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0037032690575872496, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0035140572399654036, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007381825929107185, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001949118933352329, "adv_selected": 0.0014725719448913164 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0064736048639634424, "strength": 0.012346090106470581, "strength_record": 0.007185790912944819, "adv_record": 0.0026714284638800737, "adv_strength": 0.010163399946208636, "adv_strength_record": 0.0028785450983418604, "adv_full": 0.014440064598882345, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003890981653215571, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012789906500240757, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009983461061257127, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016990368545004568, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006063996255837588, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009674463355058862, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002001243140050683, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.017473548575782667, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005193530082582421, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011402065648839254, "adv_selected": 0.006063996255837588 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.025505245760685115, "strength": 0.01647577223661845, "strength_record": 0.01946105311943903, "adv_record": 0.017613339730043184, "adv_strength": 0.013955408821392049, "adv_strength_record": 0.01666146609968665, "adv_full": 0.009767050832120327, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01714138173465129, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01060536995765876, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010561341985669754, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01745425825288637, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00879216970895366, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01119836578864158, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.024802719131588588, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007083583763381646, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0140035495516244, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01018332623621729, "adv_selected": 0.00879216970895366 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0049209564587280935, "strength": 0.020983312807462046, "strength_record": 0.007999706742086967, "adv_record": 0.0018319934494607215, "adv_strength": 0.018203404694195287, "adv_strength_record": 0.0022209846688069413, "adv_full": 0.01129090995672622, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017182803816966966, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012591201343045108, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008033067673381166, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016783985089455288, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0034683108337761758, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011610284660168276, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0048546254158637675, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01202948238131178, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009139476121737837, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006807981262849995, "adv_selected": 0.0034683108337761758 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0009494443886529821, "strength": 0.0033465494303390676, "strength_record": 0.0011133516521815497, "adv_record": 0.00019054875737974352, "adv_strength": 0.0024214024162072987, "adv_strength_record": 0.00021403650597808367, "adv_full": 0.001720369967779505, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00027666140653839945, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0015002913778750567, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001456653709405074, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003576365637593941, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007367500121462665, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0011257775311666629, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0004620709069258086, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0022599896813812644, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00035455833571286326, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0019008689337756432, "adv_selected": 0.0007367500121462665 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011203133662395122, "strength": 0.006320705189977588, "strength_record": 0.007109736116725882, "adv_record": 0.0056804509511627155, "adv_strength": 0.004870054424752156, "adv_strength_record": 0.005139973867771596, "adv_full": 0.0021756895645828646, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004424628172759635, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0022775011934723236, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005558168313106545, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0038993491597746504, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0017594201829913279, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004684314388882109, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005083457431978833, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002729889760529664, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009136134339635301, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0017410327127258816, "adv_selected": 0.0017594201829913279 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07132503714889987, "strength": 0.02596221245743959, "strength_record": 0.046520211484077464, "adv_record": 0.07247118023787005, "adv_strength": 0.023001728191535495, "adv_strength_record": 0.06453282298986046, "adv_full": 0.1097667642553248, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08920051768037433, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09477689866130493, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.054893536027273766, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10875026152897067, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.11727304929106909, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0571455414580282, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03720920334153668, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.11139088308510785, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06354076548710526, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1020904723625085, "adv_selected": 0.11727304929106909 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008229164981423601, "strength": 0.001809488038552402, "strength_record": 0.003062202434415401, "adv_record": 0.003716085755222767, "adv_strength": 0.0012320520308135565, "adv_strength_record": 0.0028772180697878647, "adv_full": 0.0019525405208579867, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003425204925132369, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001881112416990968, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004681503285753223, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0030655463363535116, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002107235711025633, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0018105427602837809, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0013140488192404794, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0026116551367309404, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0025216839966119816, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001994193947601757, "adv_selected": 0.002107235711025633 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0009494443886529821, "strength": 0.0012029813292472127, "strength_record": 0.0006531451505743043, "adv_record": 0.00019054875737974352, "adv_strength": 0.000786695862182829, "adv_strength_record": 0.00018243443818977668, "adv_full": 0.0005042474079385636, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0002553837260611952, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004367063290134876, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0006640731834053428, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013040738349546063, "adv_add_player_availability": 8.07472905528408e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008923567229719908, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000736588575306032, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005021760008136137, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00050595628424621, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00042365995284757873, "adv_selected": 8.07472905528408e-05 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0064736048639634424, "strength": 0.005637479686275678, "strength_record": 0.004775394566873421, "adv_record": 0.0026714284638800737, "adv_strength": 0.0042947953195477786, "adv_strength_record": 0.0025469151669037524, "adv_full": 0.0011569498121715275, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0026982725363710134, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012066599803134711, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004664094876286184, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0018623064186368634, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005946487173251842, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003140895115709307, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0020144573835961443, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0017650395013351738, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005531212824418733, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010329680621374896, "adv_selected": 0.0005946487173251842 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02327719389857173, "strength": 0.009123235056085652, "strength_record": 0.013516535532483562, "adv_record": 0.015532278454754248, "adv_strength": 0.007289064492764234, "adv_strength_record": 0.013555010745711946, "adv_full": 0.00621216949375716, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011391241977045814, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007028078228149008, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0204865919120729, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006543166505477629, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005201312770775793, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014134159447934202, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007517501524300322, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009978248743955339, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02208593115794059, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005559114882487381, "adv_selected": 0.005201312770775793 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012275477817226266, "strength": 0.009161748989250793, "strength_record": 0.009128111541912017, "adv_record": 0.006441534815006567, "adv_strength": 0.0073228841128874355, "adv_strength_record": 0.006104708615432679, "adv_full": 0.003984470329487062, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0059184277439390375, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004002264996330672, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007924726912469773, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006102232683758604, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00764438298462065, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0036682335506794195, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00227710999002825, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006320305714043815, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0051230026891587324, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003735816796798548, "adv_selected": 0.00764438298462065 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03472268182667553, "strength": 0.049674680994109585, "strength_record": 0.041847135311691944, "adv_record": 0.026923951440587283, "adv_strength": 0.04692544871812823, "adv_strength_record": 0.029088444896438324, "adv_full": 0.05837102884562449, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026177013780843937, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05544087152364872, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.08470004136165524, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.042877366159187684, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02892210317624147, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07043535828180648, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0186320940685022, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.09041977650127955, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.044817327629833814, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03945314731263871, "adv_selected": 0.02892210317624147 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.058065678846312335, "strength": 0.03702932481183444, "strength_record": 0.04930822441484716, "adv_record": 0.054613575420877074, "adv_strength": 0.03397873874969984, "adv_strength_record": 0.052773134720213194, "adv_full": 0.014747422489844238, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04742216621909534, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015899314621742936, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0646237357202074, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011479640954583448, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017778515531065294, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02779426041700804, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02292529082350716, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0166063465509613, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02406315823738477, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.017930316323195375, "adv_selected": 0.017778515531065294 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02327719389857173, "strength": 0.04157145492565365, "strength_record": 0.02979898899293841, "adv_record": 0.015532278454754248, "adv_strength": 0.03858546314019977, "adv_strength_record": 0.01717686608797546, "adv_full": 0.00881723254615008, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015166356965223064, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008533811457019196, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.030564349138888454, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009376021789027644, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0028851477571573505, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03206107285954802, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.027007549699178988, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00911383385454447, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.019860640190075975, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007288439800574131, "adv_selected": 0.0028851477571573505 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0049209564587280935, "strength": 0.009465164678864095, "strength_record": 0.005282569837853006, "adv_record": 0.0018319934494607215, "adv_strength": 0.007589805002249185, "adv_strength_record": 0.0019613685762796805, "adv_full": 0.0044703531456000995, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001932477769634236, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004077393474835746, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007390160703086736, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005272860373453343, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001229960355674844, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006314945901912306, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026604032496196166, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004364731751340211, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0029789948986524684, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003849683966222909, "adv_selected": 0.001229960355674844 } } ] }, { "season": 2018, "champion": "GSW", "cutoffDate": "2017-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.7190196781515423 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.228334903626587, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2210409601730325 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.6276797941073444, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.11003660336872063, "record": 1.6211320403681917 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.279930088048907, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.11706132846601007, "record": 0.4053626150559369, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.08253456620252363, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.14805803865977687, "prior_net_rating": 0.37468248225006456, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09739427716407742, "rotation_box_production": 0.2774912503271115, "star_box_production": 0.4639499961269529, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.07334649896160694, "efg_pct": 0.313210685137071, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14576907601609165, "turnover_rate": 0.1503430209393353, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.06070380614613795, "oreb_pct": 0.10887660313790003, "dreb_pct": 0.010761838388413894, "ft_rate": -0.10463218265977144, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1627671835067106, "pace": 0.04107950926682109, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07655425456580074, "three_pct": 0.14117199347700668, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.008993296593961591, "opp_three_pct": 0.019068189536319117 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3152242781386083, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.1415584998544774, "record": 1.6351407468215435, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.829690934171629, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.8106557613727757 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.344201881474524, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.13491180057208252, "record": 0.4175359862395718, "prior_net_rating": 0.36943339441482226, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09343548310106864, "rotation_box_production": 0.2638973888646406, "star_box_production": 0.4559063291110072, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.07091941525991932, "efg_pct": 0.28040903008495865, "opp_efg_pct": -0.19969567766205196, "turnover_rate": 0.18254070474419587, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10408164423253538, "oreb_pct": 0.09920767111247204, "dreb_pct": 0.04219667899888982, "ft_rate": -0.11048653310861342, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17914282167194523, "pace": 0.051510518709370796, "three_attempt_rate": -0.0857300282328966, "three_pct": 0.12993511572220748, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.0266732555073284, "opp_three_pct": 2.3739457789813223e-05 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3242861544267686, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.337964895889694, "record": 0.560765699998642, "prior_net_rating": 0.5355060054912463, "retained_minutes_share": 0.13322168889173147 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.48746642148003, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1205663531605682, "record": 0.439375773029177, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07611334868344118, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1322169236540199, "rotation_box_production": 0.3401358600861174, "star_box_production": 0.5142069769347495, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.07709602619424033, "efg_pct": 0.3018061461015302, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1304273746302289, "turnover_rate": 0.12466541522943912, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.06092203476716677, "oreb_pct": 0.08242427503073162, "dreb_pct": 0.0307656178140294, "ft_rate": -0.10489446105817114, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18950945006812359, "pace": 0.05555089640676018, "three_attempt_rate": -0.04874079380839272, "three_pct": 0.14380029174332004, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.03449649298816369, "opp_three_pct": 0.024989981103365522 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.299133234747821, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.08656823504010074, "record": 1.2010792496996852, "rotation_box_production": 0.3616885069255069, "star_box_production": 0.7621255829126445, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1793896213065059 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0239678795945304, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14742577605864954, "record": 0.4348591389390416, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.0076480380948880855, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.11958983582198476, "prior_net_rating": 0.5434522185765944, "retained_minutes_share": 0.12043642581778165, "efg_pct": 0.4366086018009522, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14461009656014062, "turnover_rate": 0.11316957909963353, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.050257239243725486, "oreb_pct": 0.056286837495044345, "dreb_pct": 0.012981214742964249, "ft_rate": -0.07857760908859077, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14599966673930279, "pace": 0.10301044323516828, "three_attempt_rate": -0.10577080919149434, "three_pct": 0.1516820985393087, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.010561710076147875, "opp_three_pct": 0.008625117181504686 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5371038777269455, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.18315284405031082, "record": 1.1165703307762624, "efg_pct": 0.8928409664742122, "opp_efg_pct": -0.21867824117512039, "turnover_rate": 0.08736801580917734, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.11030468917779454, "oreb_pct": 0.1314297580313081, "dreb_pct": 0.1961112942995777, "ft_rate": -0.1784207215880124, "opp_ft_rate": -0.2945241154311418 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5201045595632223, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16988221045439703, "record": 0.4573320571283346, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.06940955413347608, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.20179179685462711, "prior_net_rating": 0.35537853239711686, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09153125715275869, "rotation_box_production": 0.28744031821823146, "star_box_production": 0.47396032494239904, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10146486557956534, "pace": 0.09102074810101693, "three_attempt_rate": -0.028294828755970024, "three_pct": 0.21599723310236146, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.01402391180271727, "opp_three_pct": -0.003478582493765045 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.259602203431421, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1723040431005314, "record": 1.3174141215718405, "pace": 0.315638685750642, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08186076382309582, "three_pct": 0.3291054562432377, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.09281273295041825, "opp_three_pct": 0.1005213387827445 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.480502142749498, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.12995586747114077, "record": 0.4142554913771935, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.07029163600964938, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.15052879527636207, "prior_net_rating": 0.36361392311453516, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10817801774920209, "rotation_box_production": 0.2817910636157135, "star_box_production": 0.4666417722627118, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08106189575553391, "efg_pct": 0.33720085550680395, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14520419001616652, "turnover_rate": 0.15197467918333987, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.06853183219819423, "oreb_pct": 0.10835029576203979, "dreb_pct": 0.012285733061568284, "ft_rate": -0.1106670307411499, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16379910268319994 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2017, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2436095960955935, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0239678795945304, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2017 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.182645697446177, "brier": 0.8710859328727177, "championProbability": 0.11274285223209554, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.3221424437862836, "brier": 0.5753616228012124, "championProbability": 0.2665635922447085, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.6344033063915187, "brier": 0.7150834286749128, "championProbability": 0.19506873284573809, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.061907552690568, "brier": 0.887547749863151, "championProbability": 0.12721107647127858, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.2367887820183456, "brier": 0.5410667096605537, "championProbability": 0.29031498739527584, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.9496209704304868, "brier": 0.857642716548414, "championProbability": 0.1423280078877007, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 0.36732035577772293, "brier": 0.10285268180440936, "championProbability": 0.6925877350187168, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.870667471874515, "brier": 0.8203110646754121, "championProbability": 0.15402082293052216, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 0.3340085205053976, "brier": 0.08805493196026033, "championProbability": 0.7160476811130844, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.0278183786811352, "brier": 0.4463107982044982, "championProbability": 0.35778666476570864, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 0.7256281601255374, "brier": 0.2872785677007773, "championProbability": 0.4840204311069618, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.0310794388067126, "brier": 0.47986289223331896, "championProbability": 0.3566218013169629, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 0.35240488666892705, "brier": 0.09425799698673824, "championProbability": 0.7029954308681378, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 0.7408098643766109, "brier": 0.3148760775498065, "championProbability": 0.47672767437984975, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 0.6807625658252008, "brier": 0.26149020835648157, "championProbability": 0.5062308108238825, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.2358498303288714, "brier": 0.5519700805560854, "championProbability": 0.29058770715847504, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 0.4339055906453363, "brier": 0.13934559636617058, "championProbability": 0.6479734273508224, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.0310794388067126, "brier": 0.47986289223331896, "championProbability": 0.3566218013169629, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0012259875913707603, "strength": 0.003246095015773954, "strength_record": 0.0013875950237087651, "adv_record": 0.000369767185576926, "adv_strength": 0.002694693904320312, "adv_strength_record": 0.0003784313988136282, "adv_full": 0.0005424996363254996, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00040441304777106716, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000491561838251391, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0021929616634371036, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008841445970669426, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00011607568574583273, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0015273446048590456, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0003595198010899378, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0011094376306690986, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010568163832166593, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0004122814614255772, "adv_selected": 0.00011607568574583273 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0052100155120886815, "strength": 0.00497539681903826, "strength_record": 0.004146250393171191, "adv_record": 0.002396841230996831, "adv_strength": 0.004240331342834017, "adv_strength_record": 0.0022973082754917306, "adv_full": 0.00026389844711715795, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002368872724872922, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00025587509965236267, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002312695654810012, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007712434169705732, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0002702694118702924, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008838181929316912, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0007547724144186717, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0007908995631425571, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0066075414320747785, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0002547255210539202, "adv_selected": 0.0002702694118702924 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.21881853997917183, "strength": 0.12139411404189578, "strength_record": 0.19788072940640236, "adv_record": 0.299611921453087, "adv_strength": 0.125957814013275, "adv_strength_record": 0.29611406097402126, "adv_full": 0.017378224585370017, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2582889722692721, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014760239655608689, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.08654750421612915, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.027931872373562486, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.043633456309975775, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03323387369241667, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07951179618155682, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.035434110201220705, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.15242829878368647, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019306386058406014, "adv_selected": 0.043633456309975775 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010740277122393673, "strength": 0.013793483332324863, "strength_record": 0.010692252324243628, "adv_record": 0.006102316327052437, "adv_strength": 0.012517662979424773, "adv_strength_record": 0.0061140626233396845, "adv_full": 0.004550705310635768, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006786224603980002, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0038477068750879177, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011191870807644805, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008124691978745937, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00528417504044826, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005508073085028429, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004200997771419142, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010894031098466988, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00895891944588514, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004164104922810584, "adv_selected": 0.00528417504044826 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0016909083222207831, "strength": 0.005550158839230725, "strength_record": 0.002203113632525741, "adv_record": 0.0005601554522956917, "adv_strength": 0.00476213697376717, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005893605742139738, "adv_full": 0.0005730350072577936, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000628630924834656, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004621786031996369, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0034770982202782874, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008483147470000588, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001252375438525165, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0013192016132876053, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006459288810803065, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000865215374349616, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00046904193989997313, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0006795712008655168, "adv_selected": 0.0001252375438525165 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007945269344584746, "strength": 0.006211651310866684, "strength_record": 0.005988147479887694, "adv_record": 0.004134169505184403, "adv_strength": 0.005366802949205058, "adv_strength_record": 0.003923803825409954, "adv_full": 0.006952710733251792, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004453017116821655, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007515022573209677, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010399480412045485, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010822595780960571, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010692357581589512, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005911615493405699, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006105834653669456, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009354128622360002, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004937724519160674, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007248839964809386, "adv_selected": 0.010692357581589512 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0010867341867472212, "strength": 0.0032392943280691606, "strength_record": 0.0012878444029814752, "adv_record": 0.00031643593205642965, "adv_strength": 0.0026887010740811426, "adv_strength_record": 0.00032667002246324506, "adv_full": 0.00047972772764367957, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00036886135504922787, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00042097447839825256, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0021697539981231947, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008433571300584489, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001757475394106297, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008680703068780154, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00033184112783810884, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0011066413130987392, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005289216727965905, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00047250409602725684, "adv_selected": 0.0001757475394106297 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02992945585306752, "strength": 0.01916611068150892, "strength_record": 0.023523708308924914, "adv_record": 0.022932774648289748, "adv_strength": 0.017749363907588012, "adv_strength_record": 0.02198965028752773, "adv_full": 0.03693342175163557, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023080471976934712, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.033023182872828266, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.023109762413112786, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06026638077514653, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0632219747236488, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01640604788428815, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019049085188235802, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.045872903596448765, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025857232648440334, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.036171593723396595, "adv_selected": 0.0632219747236488 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09409031011222364, "strength": 0.04801811600572572, "strength_record": 0.07463045070563815, "adv_record": 0.1007073261444497, "adv_strength": 0.047056810820384674, "adv_strength_record": 0.09691467239867346, "adv_full": 0.013122018926018848, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09794939306293851, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011855310535044702, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03413719691074902, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02617410049697561, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0335461193115515, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01695887563768922, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.059575204427629216, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02092534025817479, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07668428394341209, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013408181887265861, "adv_selected": 0.0335461193115515 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11274285223209554, "strength": 0.2665635922447085, "strength_record": 0.19506873284573809, "adv_record": 0.12721107647127858, "adv_strength": 0.29031498739527584, "adv_strength_record": 0.1423280078877007, "adv_full": 0.6925877350187168, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15402082293052216, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.7160476811130844, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.35778666476570864, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.4840204311069618, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.3566218013169629, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.7029954308681378, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.47672767437984975, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.5062308108238825, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.29058770715847504, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.6479734273508224, "adv_selected": 0.3566218013169629 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11274285223209554, "strength": 0.07107854694262848, "strength_record": 0.10124005144401606, "adv_record": 0.12721107647127858, "adv_strength": 0.07135881789727133, "adv_strength_record": 0.12542123647639, "adv_full": 0.0662948481971112, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.13544915822293632, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06505447488867211, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10870694206582221, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0894731421637631, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.21874210726623936, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04692071267845683, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.16352059515225584, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.08755424733187835, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06377662615192778, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10575016090199006, "adv_selected": 0.21874210726623936 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007945269344584746, "strength": 0.014010745752463336, "strength_record": 0.008965372743751664, "adv_record": 0.004134169505184403, "adv_strength": 0.012727075420495261, "adv_strength_record": 0.0042413327582565335, "adv_full": 0.0017869574142633175, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0045876157239424925, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001798300005846584, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007279617658228597, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0036162499027903934, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001080982504953752, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0055013746338811705, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005645932558699181, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002964677921790291, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010920141059241347, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0014134028603584833, "adv_selected": 0.001080982504953752 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015420687017428238, "strength": 0.03398698474715094, "strength_record": 0.020856082174686503, "adv_record": 0.009736938821838483, "adv_strength": 0.03260506157200707, "adv_strength_record": 0.010355458657454344, "adv_full": 0.010932146294078416, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011411480470929198, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010754622146483912, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.027122839184568162, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01349886021110231, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011917605198341655, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011039246947856839, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0057602823473886745, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.017825474299969217, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010572829960320846, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011357109449010883, "adv_selected": 0.011917605198341655 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007945269344584746, "strength": 0.009904663647432017, "strength_record": 0.007548031974828473, "adv_record": 0.004134169505184403, "adv_strength": 0.008807031004205965, "adv_strength_record": 0.004102916826130789, "adv_full": 0.001208294869991918, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004229725370764855, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0010978946382476725, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00307312401717244, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003586988238701728, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0012638769061115664, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0019162076904227026, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0036390918859818284, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015832991691263128, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0036125763209869347, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0014803204916623443, "adv_selected": 0.0012638769061115664 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04564239540894329, "strength": 0.04268831434765701, "strength_record": 0.045277138461112726, "adv_record": 0.03955538497674932, "adv_strength": 0.04153164197417019, "adv_strength_record": 0.03969691977335722, "adv_full": 0.0033218963652955425, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03859061076322084, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002778733365320353, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03236999097787574, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004814338479089373, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009749494117169997, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007437570108433615, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005875626839170441, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011146419328031827, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.016394570402009628, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004240496185787926, "adv_selected": 0.009749494117169997 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010740277122393673, "strength": 0.012510775018901587, "strength_record": 0.01018676936404148, "adv_record": 0.006102316327052437, "adv_strength": 0.011285544230670347, "adv_strength_record": 0.006057236745658642, "adv_full": 0.008845999152911668, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006433242544526833, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007726190937905338, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014564276866845995, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011738179348341801, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005041511264263173, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009612481482868635, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006463535090076303, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011191274400131198, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007423046005805627, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009724337178239003, "adv_selected": 0.005041511264263173 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0069584034349965225, "strength": 0.009879862430579773, "strength_record": 0.006952665304412808, "adv_record": 0.0034832243423166365, "adv_strength": 0.008783621714511565, "adv_strength_record": 0.0034899461628252774, "adv_full": 0.006195425531286046, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004110230057472559, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006003004293583046, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01000318653521349, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009816134977220286, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006827429631793731, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007096229038093742, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0062355446731292225, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011926972540249669, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007676083466756281, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005290950876808801, "adv_selected": 0.006827429631793731 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04564239540894329, "strength": 0.01183875887386357, "strength_record": 0.023961176713130396, "adv_record": 0.03955538497674932, "adv_strength": 0.010643085094271853, "adv_strength_record": 0.03511313113257304, "adv_full": 0.01797361078340955, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03885135502159321, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01931545968612781, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015923922123786863, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04293438390389465, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0865938384648761, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00866738837096251, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.020014929808259963, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.030078997438148604, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.042871166915419805, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016160257416338197, "adv_selected": 0.0865938384648761 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015420687017428238, "strength": 0.017934266847804657, "strength_record": 0.015187286324417414, "adv_record": 0.009736938821838483, "adv_strength": 0.016540757076023028, "adv_strength_record": 0.009741126310586762, "adv_full": 0.017195823058102556, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010280413705700066, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014901665501780315, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010491127864812278, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.044138785207057364, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04126939541854149, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006258202673797852, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010119334807979488, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.027543888264387764, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009611375859723601, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02022434352270876, "adv_selected": 0.04126939541854149 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02214073113566757, "strength": 0.013505072912073101, "strength_record": 0.016451302055438197, "adv_record": 0.015536391845163469, "adv_strength": 0.012239987445715913, "adv_strength_record": 0.014729784922046093, "adv_full": 0.005084493442717321, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015739121856490675, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005037218241031783, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007494311188913138, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011737695136933964, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008461719924855303, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0052193773374913524, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016525612597891783, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004505700163128756, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00990214251987461, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005442617279412965, "adv_selected": 0.008461719924855303 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0052100155120886815, "strength": 0.045268444832656934, "strength_record": 0.012401417043934323, "adv_record": 0.002396841230996831, "adv_strength": 0.044201348831634416, "adv_strength_record": 0.002837668431279528, "adv_full": 0.022608844125577048, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0026749702926444283, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017590365569357922, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012475948100973638, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03725937773072315, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.016766988891513443, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007110035988691716, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026882747228256657, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.032831872667889984, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002768541116764477, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02756207389804307, "adv_selected": 0.016766988891513443 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04564239540894329, "strength": 0.033316520048263853, "strength_record": 0.04003741717430924, "adv_record": 0.03955538497674932, "adv_strength": 0.03192265736292871, "adv_strength_record": 0.0387666459407803, "adv_full": 0.008050394666027489, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03982123572262353, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007859874130879248, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010472923256674042, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02665846390610716, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012293742808481762, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.013058570338459792, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04867820102931756, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011662853118454353, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08635912826642417, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0066028183854309605, "adv_selected": 0.012293742808481762 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02214073113566757, "strength": 0.01960723506766608, "strength_record": 0.019794322014490405, "adv_record": 0.015536391845163469, "adv_strength": 0.018183348573062877, "adv_strength_record": 0.015264651198775387, "adv_full": 0.01037456336564504, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015444591963645, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009023764963092243, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007927129855775572, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02707094779126461, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012343672071192661, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008567236285506987, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014589783306102467, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.016525023383010706, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0331070046457332, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00858509158600645, "adv_selected": 0.012343672071192661 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004093676558421332, "strength": 0.0015493249060833892, "strength_record": 0.0020061167459696884, "adv_record": 0.0017553111722611746, "adv_strength": 0.0012288677940217904, "adv_strength_record": 0.0015316668490076041, "adv_full": 0.00032444239833339853, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017741612075148159, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003325029451430665, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002231010521456148, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007058398184476131, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005137455708382658, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006394028728625888, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00036300146034629304, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00111020607563926, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003772755180019468, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0002800856614919892, "adv_selected": 0.0005137455708382658 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02214073113566757, "strength": 0.047426097653354336, "strength_record": 0.030681305875419375, "adv_record": 0.015536391845163469, "adv_strength": 0.04644114372866962, "adv_strength_record": 0.01661059399234002, "adv_full": 0.0069129017605288855, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017002648662930796, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006196485247920527, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.025155056893221887, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009932057296505871, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008469736647272285, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00856618377181779, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003642932308011367, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.021316662856122253, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025681340834372048, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005729920282933283, "adv_selected": 0.008469736647272285 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0025273334502336443, "strength": 0.00268845540336949, "strength_record": 0.001964857861440388, "adv_record": 0.0009414208603278515, "adv_strength": 0.002206017532213406, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008972230392957615, "adv_full": 0.000641260887059094, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0011215920593765209, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005162158874514309, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001914187163882741, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013104951274608544, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0003151557235242686, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0010508875556941386, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0005354796223511892, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0011300639697233948, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0011202445835000487, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005325151139748059, "adv_selected": 0.0003151557235242686 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04564239540894329, "strength": 0.023900674182524534, "strength_record": 0.03395416697591965, "adv_record": 0.03955538497674932, "adv_strength": 0.022436983612443142, "adv_strength_record": 0.03755417219098784, "adv_full": 0.015039251691009954, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.037633184374634844, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01282464985172069, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06959546919128755, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011735298491603806, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013355787576388618, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.026804591536197898, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011835048235182452, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.029580439395932294, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.035042458531857924, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01333639197429064, "adv_selected": 0.013355787576388618 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04564239540894329, "strength": 0.05622325628792712, "strength_record": 0.05190688396738514, "adv_record": 0.03955538497674932, "adv_strength": 0.05563566899749937, "adv_strength_record": 0.04075673170329659, "adv_full": 0.009203656255170242, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.044114466130626535, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009171354418973035, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05717123910409049, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011366573278144474, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0207226340001765, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01662014832200594, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016229382352543318, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.021057929744433688, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03022607512260919, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011859385413421573, "adv_selected": 0.0207226340001765 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010740277122393673, "strength": 0.011913071040556611, "strength_record": 0.009942315842229743, "adv_record": 0.006102316327052437, "adv_strength": 0.010714020660522645, "adv_strength_record": 0.006028935034327297, "adv_full": 0.008024617235513362, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005973186883853812, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00670729627651635, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.017223687753750286, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009024087813107616, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0037140295137771274, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009666388778496644, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004044951712423224, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011083361067494347, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005826691283774097, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008422143420673564, "adv_selected": 0.0037140295137771274 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02214073113566757, "strength": 0.028610916437900695, "strength_record": 0.023876495415844398, "adv_record": 0.015536391845163469, "adv_strength": 0.027158014117505454, "adv_strength_record": 0.01582659358697571, "adv_full": 0.006596595361994771, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016407328951575716, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006630193359581468, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02547902061361011, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00889496877429077, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00686933203463299, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012635412209078874, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006329804663276546, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.014797118382644267, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025218713845831072, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005913961914532997, "adv_selected": 0.00686933203463299 } } ] }, { "season": 2022, "champion": "GSW", "cutoffDate": "2021-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.751120735544469 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.211692168532985, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3207473484150165 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.4885906928984443, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3290898879351858, "record": 1.459432270147619 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.246899176287065, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1325646452572306, "record": 0.4035947503373947, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.06400205214551523, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1485412495876224, "prior_net_rating": 0.40349602161422027, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10523198639044853, "rotation_box_production": 0.2930155257252295, "star_box_production": 0.45492175642405336, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0573836832893528, "efg_pct": 0.3301427471835329, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15930746791964953, "turnover_rate": 0.16353003131993396, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.04338689145057849, "oreb_pct": 0.11284498117438256, "dreb_pct": -0.0006116361642447788, "ft_rate": -0.11735479223044966, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1575900872441293, "pace": 0.04970100267971271, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08489459925593953, "three_pct": 0.1516583320979929, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.014002231655211007, "opp_three_pct": 0.01469496398130513 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1204338859025196, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4896194489528956, "record": 1.501889645452604, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.8448886645143235, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.982232322930287 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2968484405145233, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15212227637813053, "record": 0.41690568087033925, "prior_net_rating": 0.3965796651172032, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10078677990123643, "rotation_box_production": 0.27987171921383813, "star_box_production": 0.448053036287267, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.056094170974911255, "efg_pct": 0.30008824357565433, "opp_efg_pct": -0.21097512405032956, "turnover_rate": 0.1916755560614817, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08614431498628544, "oreb_pct": 0.10452084042843049, "dreb_pct": 0.029518222379789728, "ft_rate": -0.1216724715797591, "opp_ft_rate": -0.173112928012423, "pace": 0.05881752742353426, "three_attempt_rate": -0.09259068288510033, "three_pct": 0.1417165672146216, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.030017226027373754, "opp_three_pct": -0.003940867670564142 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1252583910346314, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3817641542791195, "record": 0.5554837761001851, "prior_net_rating": 0.591695336267638, "retained_minutes_share": 0.15204259451428181 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3415016172001404, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14746090263264255, "record": 0.43940998103815015, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.04307652310221802, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.12973771230941064, "rotation_box_production": 0.3717103311616825, "star_box_production": 0.5044550678134879, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0528174804570298, "efg_pct": 0.32659076074910826, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14929176149653212, "turnover_rate": 0.1423753708663032, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.03302415323230305, "oreb_pct": 0.08553361448837216, "dreb_pct": 0.015651086998611553, "ft_rate": -0.12506762836242544, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18571652603065553, "pace": 0.06940416350057314, "three_attempt_rate": -0.05733101423103463, "three_pct": 0.15996089169486424, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.04605283386553332, "opp_three_pct": 0.021195467016682585 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1417827272855927, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.22134641000068914, "record": 1.1603931900687348, "rotation_box_production": 0.4668269428402945, "star_box_production": 0.7321695886134805, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.09427872205057576 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9246790355157486, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1607098070438941, "record": 0.43085776209741394, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.010366972452548263, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.11755216314618264, "prior_net_rating": 0.5703135165250268, "retained_minutes_share": 0.12918029894939762, "efg_pct": 0.45429511897144154, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15523316902823467, "turnover_rate": 0.12974675697029947, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.03774318360027163, "oreb_pct": 0.05877699772748199, "dreb_pct": 0.0009771657199157567, "ft_rate": -0.09215091808932598, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14296026580613658, "pace": 0.11235945408038635, "three_attempt_rate": -0.1093484018129309, "three_pct": 0.16010865886912543, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.010773093328962558, "opp_three_pct": 0.006864214153368073 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.318633978621144, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.08352465211559607, "record": 1.0732336197202015, "efg_pct": 0.9567334580730893, "opp_efg_pct": -0.22983623515232918, "turnover_rate": 0.10861855099778375, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.04251763565574237, "oreb_pct": 0.1358138015902492, "dreb_pct": 0.1495921460862701, "ft_rate": -0.22054767884604157, "opp_ft_rate": -0.285366222215938 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3421750900445613, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1943265587081558, "record": 0.4548331199152086, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.036238772727576564, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.19791564775019627, "prior_net_rating": 0.39602501139927215, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1015848095122203, "rotation_box_production": 0.3125490105602302, "star_box_production": 0.46344524923898156, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08083838340931802, "pace": 0.11079034799255995, "three_attempt_rate": -0.034163455457786374, "three_pct": 0.23862909929562917, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.02455564762938007, "opp_three_pct": -0.013564111456798303 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.101718239670799, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2981450195735019, "record": 1.257584048870472, "pace": 0.3704911399851154, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07610253630703037, "three_pct": 0.38208221438023077, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.0987152960117291, "opp_three_pct": 0.1417757789762719 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3560369115074353, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1482448919992091, "record": 0.4127431336704126, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.05014782538225783, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.15293211564332154, "prior_net_rating": 0.39426629592160506, "retained_minutes_share": 0.11879767634858908, "rotation_box_production": 0.3004195848007688, "star_box_production": 0.45605504843405864, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.06321398231415123, "efg_pct": 0.3575135339330438, "opp_efg_pct": -0.16344073744434004, "turnover_rate": 0.16684521248017717, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.04938659906677895, "oreb_pct": 0.11332327826234445, "dreb_pct": -0.004443612971101032, "ft_rate": -0.12548738788693925, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1570541620950927 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2018, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0626391955505676, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9246790355157486, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2018 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 1.388431549044854, "brier": 0.5978555519658362, "championProbability": 0.2494662735587647, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.6631157738954472, "brier": 0.7121232769516029, "championProbability": 0.18954747201207756, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.3227570498440033, "brier": 0.5778819809126119, "championProbability": 0.2663998109817811, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 1.075213916659895, "brier": 0.46413786232147963, "championProbability": 0.3412247538335434, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.5611834842225034, "brier": 0.6840558701440169, "championProbability": 0.2098875255798404, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.0264432063580191, "brier": 0.44319945975235764, "championProbability": 0.3582790215447911, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.3324396820259041, "brier": 0.6030645807874456, "championProbability": 0.26383280733020525, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.283543014876894, "brier": 0.560189126123121, "championProbability": 0.27705395319699516, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.397866024218155, "brier": 0.6265425795301417, "championProbability": 0.24712375777326198, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.074058380754767, "brier": 0.842587404480155, "championProbability": 0.125674709521265, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.0998778967286469, "brier": 0.48496942596066567, "championProbability": 0.3329117308278612, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.009371892327728, "brier": 0.4544920942935064, "championProbability": 0.36444782016772287, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.3824751092029133, "brier": 0.6084171122889012, "championProbability": 0.2509566386383725, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 0.5746969896170866, "brier": 0.20558296283251962, "championProbability": 0.5628754000597854, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.348494015130902, "brier": 0.5991096715109913, "championProbability": 0.2596309666807305, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 0.8598780353413586, "brier": 0.35474955414811654, "championProbability": 0.42321369628414457, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.4178163287471175, "brier": 0.6630048786696086, "championProbability": 0.24224241756385667, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.009371892327728, "brier": 0.4544920942935064, "championProbability": 0.36444782016772287, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00475474486369547, "strength": 0.009513931127549663, "strength_record": 0.005376073035435067, "adv_record": 0.0024510635424131347, "adv_strength": 0.007960942002592595, "adv_strength_record": 0.0025914278777092277, "adv_full": 0.012330039109296868, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004698698223119127, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01494382739100532, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013643072445173888, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01107670181110211, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004913693448420179, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010916659318718689, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026395845576074255, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01513537685997035, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004243783478131902, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008835750464831564, "adv_selected": 0.004913693448420179 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03952315582604378, "strength": 0.017872572077495142, "strength_record": 0.02669148420986825, "adv_record": 0.03433291655562293, "adv_strength": 0.01586467044068878, "adv_strength_record": 0.0277691019787665, "adv_full": 0.08408793869701718, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026267337685835127, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08306834811604931, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.037202192599555414, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.09052222044213232, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.05655000123958879, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0616839723191824, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04091616142851492, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.08523392782117177, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.038339962310178916, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06439541962037708, "adv_selected": 0.05655000123958879 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007576464370369422, "strength": 0.016684274763991695, "strength_record": 0.009450048955354303, "adv_record": 0.004380794874556388, "adv_strength": 0.014714773142788021, "adv_strength_record": 0.0049000879399669186, "adv_full": 0.004293815856212881, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004852899367677374, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004213561815917901, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013686766413507287, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004061499649292024, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003291330962188154, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0054595338559198245, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0011102852206451718, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0086141734686629, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0031779499337869824, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004298492422797559, "adv_selected": 0.003291330962188154 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008512388318070533, "strength": 0.009570680850110508, "strength_record": 0.0076819837894836936, "adv_record": 0.005065268896024335, "adv_strength": 0.008012889098787087, "adv_strength_record": 0.004753125305784103, "adv_full": 0.003149155334854758, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009067740970986053, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004004955338781041, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00890932288600601, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004006047584600017, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0024810888037061097, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0063106637315435725, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0019492401141895347, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00647512439385745, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015037865253543193, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002071297754408416, "adv_selected": 0.0024810888037061097 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06165861112891609, "strength": 0.06545840801326583, "strength_record": 0.06694162630256904, "adv_record": 0.059764801969978285, "adv_strength": 0.06561426972110536, "adv_strength_record": 0.06278075870827964, "adv_full": 0.026252004150251414, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06345145135340963, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02770908732470217, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.025460041116486927, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05226495011741341, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.07013652237096617, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01848574662462989, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015224805200749389, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04191451908977872, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07376861308133488, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.018722720219629386, "adv_selected": 0.07013652237096617 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03952315582604378, "strength": 0.02803812872663572, "strength_record": 0.03343268995724883, "adv_record": 0.03433291655562293, "adv_strength": 0.0259599759341452, "adv_strength_record": 0.031394423339662525, "adv_full": 0.00963316146005078, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03141598656873001, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010217911723974125, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009274549487127798, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02051337381451807, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0060925428477810566, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01443473836012993, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03318474191083896, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005134876966784549, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.026808861839853922, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008198290922779704, "adv_selected": 0.0060925428477810566 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06165861112891609, "strength": 0.008771364094221313, "strength_record": 0.02450013588770629, "adv_record": 0.059764801969978285, "adv_strength": 0.007283950420624123, "adv_strength_record": 0.03630459539758718, "adv_full": 0.010873507084160332, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04502926628167211, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011837395814357495, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.033333358263137165, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010157347536606942, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.020345325677141642, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011941292449547558, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011991001395319863, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01564088909329048, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.014611728343210523, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012474904772037491, "adv_selected": 0.020345325677141642 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030653825939657306, "strength": 0.035606409729586334, "strength_record": 0.032284489416127694, "adv_record": 0.02501197365995879, "adv_strength": 0.03371325691066565, "adv_strength_record": 0.025732606435725548, "adv_full": 0.15317112555991, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017670890625189988, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.13383611577005441, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05366503695419205, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.12197804675911854, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.141753998567247, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04527055277489938, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.031235806240912118, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1003802313022254, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0069419415703815875, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.20933547645282097, "adv_selected": 0.141753998567247 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0010061498351923678, "strength": 0.0014276548170534219, "strength_record": 0.0008102363117353613, "adv_record": 0.0003537475249074263, "adv_strength": 0.001000225323567805, "adv_strength_record": 0.0003079218556517646, "adv_full": 0.00015021264229383313, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00032970507483606206, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00015033057351863154, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0014033245975550465, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00017566588998103736, "adv_add_player_availability": 5.513217450646492e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00027490035118258487, "adv_add_four_factors": 4.055185349963686e-05, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000301243718027404, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00026130000765701804, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0001614525512785518, "adv_selected": 5.513217450646492e-05 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.2494662735587647, "strength": 0.18954747201207756, "strength_record": 0.2663998109817811, "adv_record": 0.3412247538335434, "adv_strength": 0.2098875255798404, "adv_strength_record": 0.3582790215447911, "adv_full": 0.26383280733020525, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.27705395319699516, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.24712375777326198, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.125674709521265, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.3329117308278612, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.36444782016772287, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.2509566386383725, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.5628754000597854, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.2596309666807305, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.42321369628414457, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.24224241756385667, "adv_selected": 0.36444782016772287 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0009309780305537407, "strength": 0.004136736465566294, "strength_record": 0.0013157551877343628, "adv_record": 0.0003211148217738581, "adv_strength": 0.0032018034486273926, "adv_strength_record": 0.00037958892861670023, "adv_full": 0.000980173101327085, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004121640568124693, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001077387319821285, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0013193958696191088, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0014478352213580165, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001427592378617668, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0019034674059834242, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00045464028525963815, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0010298118424213237, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.000905790605666679, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.000803683969556337, "adv_selected": 0.0001427592378617668 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0058762417927740495, "strength": 0.020473225652069767, "strength_record": 0.008970263652320357, "adv_record": 0.0031914657129279446, "adv_strength": 0.01840579613524352, "adv_strength_record": 0.003979008151819499, "adv_full": 0.016461576606798492, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004496431929876091, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017169567250341373, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01188489717589172, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01914226770318332, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004191506367987626, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.017136642522108565, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008596132556094295, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011932042256288067, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006761157769656409, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014285787201464216, "adv_selected": 0.004191506367987626 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030653825939657306, "strength": 0.04214585903654252, "strength_record": 0.03512480161251581, "adv_record": 0.02501197365995879, "adv_strength": 0.040540019331518344, "adv_strength_record": 0.02694251137222478, "adv_full": 0.03500969222130701, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023959072380411728, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.032750295658091726, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06738634843724833, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022361429518265075, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008532146632072992, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0841905255619269, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02053989397114067, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.041299151717034646, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.046541776595269056, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.029096286810014506, "adv_selected": 0.008532146632072992 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020937956617660805, "strength": 0.009316109997934315, "strength_record": 0.013097252584025817, "adv_record": 0.015552630697801788, "adv_strength": 0.007780089923054787, "adv_strength_record": 0.012018099694404216, "adv_full": 0.01466470972071143, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014349396247645052, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015681065761610984, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0135652476625949, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01683520090235633, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009514502693320827, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019706658317179295, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007026138575634824, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01875306766430326, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03355982067601288, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009448751368111729, "adv_selected": 0.009514502693320827 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030653825939657306, "strength": 0.010002499458724357, "strength_record": 0.01710938644116213, "adv_record": 0.02501197365995879, "adv_strength": 0.00840909767465186, "adv_strength_record": 0.018206305040054317, "adv_full": 0.005617706493825794, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.035071562719135724, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007160978589318629, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.022586456552385246, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005229294872337504, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003266493547092589, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014565907365930393, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013097235098283718, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005669203593580598, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.022205920767162265, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004776802941971931, "adv_selected": 0.003266493547092589 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06165861112891609, "strength": 0.11157727045631027, "strength_record": 0.08740218012509328, "adv_record": 0.059764801969978285, "adv_strength": 0.11756964520604551, "adv_strength_record": 0.07260063356198396, "adv_full": 0.030319486367192033, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07573645537348443, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03110502185741829, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04714009936356173, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03228978099613283, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04478395336692129, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03487876167800702, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.027675824828234594, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.036766252347445884, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.033766882256500874, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.027357219467661096, "adv_selected": 0.04478395336692129 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011092181739044327, "strength": 0.01641881988497248, "strength_record": 0.011818577874547261, "adv_record": 0.007045259939694563, "adv_strength": 0.014458924101834924, "adv_strength_record": 0.007249009412663646, "adv_full": 0.029943222558065422, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008381272615638816, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.030743667816717408, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02507091119268911, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.027187487312948337, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.025373925138752914, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.017252559814199674, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004042158339213009, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.044552955179310946, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00845457652627095, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.027495199810286444, "adv_selected": 0.025373925138752914 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00475474486369547, "strength": 0.004088216599432447, "strength_record": 0.00352386343826313, "adv_record": 0.0024510635424131347, "adv_strength": 0.0031607557282613066, "adv_strength_record": 0.0020586330475599506, "adv_full": 0.0042341507652548654, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002455815562103337, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004533776884094072, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0039421363406671244, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005384496330275219, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023261166226308336, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0026192251347482254, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0008460451650800312, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004507643682885947, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0020442587305934635, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0046287282808870674, "adv_selected": 0.0023261166226308336 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008736705580679036, "strength": 0.0014191638226549788, "strength_record": 0.000741398157969133, "adv_record": 0.0002966672924595025, "adv_strength": 0.000993721270836717, "adv_strength_record": 0.0002654855581625477, "adv_full": 0.0015657387245154438, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00044920442333033295, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001823071702558563, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0018824350934675646, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0017787294869009108, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00039505258148796234, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0011365250164836757, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00024242319134948256, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014884188318417823, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003643381837615496, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0013125951061363265, "adv_selected": 0.00039505258148796234 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03952315582604378, "strength": 0.029386766333351397, "strength_record": 0.034227450069709155, "adv_record": 0.03433291655562293, "adv_strength": 0.027328604444386326, "adv_strength_record": 0.03179891269112799, "adv_full": 0.014476399133942013, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04878937018850774, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01670604249565695, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03942648500517688, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013232371530239793, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012143606707289797, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.029007370469409058, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.021268860137337798, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.016546947060859626, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.026533009747940633, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012806390656825635, "adv_selected": 0.012143606707289797 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00475474486369547, "strength": 0.003566403245839002, "strength_record": 0.0032912585717371373, "adv_record": 0.0024510635424131347, "adv_strength": 0.002722291702808183, "adv_strength_record": 0.0019834384967539467, "adv_full": 0.0006108064900230399, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002114566743394236, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006303800254594088, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0018199341873394097, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012781963871391995, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00042473091663527024, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008871866053572866, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0007509717024816456, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0007266134499379353, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012526483284048193, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0006701781841307646, "adv_selected": 0.00042473091663527024 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003113023066111373, "strength": 0.0035210750550052974, "strength_record": 0.002528075535488327, "adv_record": 0.001445717189142669, "adv_strength": 0.0026844748717704267, "adv_strength_record": 0.0012729870875824586, "adv_full": 0.0006838197875235457, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001609778088499052, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007215781464139655, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001544647181025301, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00124399897135761, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0002506615603312518, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0013159441078194395, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0010023782243031283, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000762115618756243, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012556566353381308, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0006313605113637143, "adv_selected": 0.0002506615603312518 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0488454431741712, "strength": 0.04871438375512925, "strength_record": 0.05012379661167315, "adv_record": 0.044703992416373683, "adv_strength": 0.04749807978743082, "adv_strength_record": 0.045474508830140876, "adv_full": 0.062364670950152475, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06811685705270945, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0739141137621016, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07564412557392242, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.048531798129866535, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.039820872467928904, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08719413344417876, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06066909440222345, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0474304868024231, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.035135163590510644, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.052117565195430475, "adv_selected": 0.039820872467928904 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0488454431741712, "strength": 0.01516162835137519, "strength_record": 0.0279603511920455, "adv_record": 0.044703992416373683, "adv_strength": 0.013252582405127857, "adv_strength_record": 0.033085261361084486, "adv_full": 0.029983817666735017, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.043801443414689764, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.033015971325205395, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05684998916135965, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.020641174428213723, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.016146300337098067, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06494336818653784, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03034529355637947, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.032556385353372394, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.059995510738148586, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02303158969424033, "adv_selected": 0.016146300337098067 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011092181739044327, "strength": 0.028932505140081072, "strength_record": 0.015689511823496614, "adv_record": 0.007045259939694563, "adv_strength": 0.026866938934142767, "adv_strength_record": 0.008459130588982391, "adv_full": 0.016041398297760884, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011569493896021967, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017331351511510447, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.022289923798404387, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01727957801955128, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00828466899973156, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019769579922206383, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013283821370684777, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01766675539944776, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.011832203863793776, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014828408191611256, "adv_selected": 0.00828466899973156 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011092181739044327, "strength": 0.022063316478265173, "strength_record": 0.013700651102560675, "adv_record": 0.007045259939694563, "adv_strength": 0.01997472397862351, "adv_strength_record": 0.00785684711206564, "adv_full": 0.00618860358532831, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009030700429764836, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006649851981263612, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010853709792003254, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00886868493319355, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004208662169539442, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009812592339983975, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0045525684505809605, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00960204842002357, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.013891445220547721, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005066667659412824, "adv_selected": 0.004208662169539442 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003766669663734966, "strength": 0.01531630842142414, "strength_record": 0.0059209883049681404, "adv_record": 0.001833392271041547, "adv_strength": 0.013400516338244168, "adv_strength_record": 0.002316306539620341, "adv_full": 0.005445891242844373, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002088116009537354, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005557764256430265, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008093552030867073, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005844366447051138, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008362252403718738, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011543985647214736, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0032744234731687943, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004902237810194191, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004160601356410778, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004235273998952942, "adv_selected": 0.0008362252403718738 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020937956617660805, "strength": 0.03224535410243213, "strength_record": 0.024369411381838665, "adv_record": 0.015552630697801788, "adv_strength": 0.030248768330847848, "adv_strength_record": 0.016856863748662874, "adv_full": 0.0036907833402769663, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017627768081782767, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003970318031598219, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01769857054758086, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0035663104539284335, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0026109145189615822, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007456042003170338, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003385621374319223, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0047677942955894745, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009351559949692704, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0033247776158411625, "adv_selected": 0.0026109145189615822 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07460517160170972, "strength": 0.15892595903790827, "strength_record": 0.11712588859415951, "adv_record": 0.07579098238229065, "adv_strength": 0.17310049008311712, "adv_strength_record": 0.09745139902610585, "adv_full": 0.14308599482557874, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09483243847673282, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15057353767175616, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.22656351855608142, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.08236600242798701, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.12888297328152953, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.1322409821793968, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05572420245327651, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.14635285537542378, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0421188258608086, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1835567256348312, "adv_selected": 0.12888297328152953 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06165861112891609, "strength": 0.04009750249299445, "strength_record": 0.0523905588913821, "adv_record": 0.059764801969978285, "adv_strength": 0.03839019772862137, "adv_strength_record": 0.05493199936645883, "adv_full": 0.010857590896583722, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05527016296147131, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01177896631100943, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.022185242194107863, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.017823411495088537, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017796471353185506, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01670384385403193, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.022054694862891595, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01422588390436005, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0334631504952859, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009789784956452661, "adv_selected": 0.017796471353185506 } } ] }, { "season": 2023, "champion": "DEN", "cutoffDate": "2022-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.8737436028479688 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1083759638172497, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3930649583406376 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.404280946655177, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.35082337282068393, "record": 1.5543780446578004 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1359486335662425, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.13648637654201415, "record": 0.43223579226132564, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.059847512678450954, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17167310449799733, "prior_net_rating": 0.3718357574842104, "retained_minutes_share": 0.11342339524045832, "rotation_box_production": 0.3041229755622604, "star_box_production": 0.44294100295765687, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.07178100247265241, "efg_pct": 0.3475294424676268, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15454974687415518, "turnover_rate": 0.15948888568956698, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.052214842501240026, "oreb_pct": 0.09970723742029292, "dreb_pct": 0.05420133509704528, "ft_rate": -0.1459445838183312, "opp_ft_rate": -0.134131407199227, "pace": 0.08778283887880961, "three_attempt_rate": -0.049886755370137495, "three_pct": 0.1864201934159109, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.040494462031700686, "opp_three_pct": -0.010634244252940472 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0487980491864635, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2450249846992594, "record": 1.5909559299003162, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.6465662755163019, "adjusted_def_rating": 0.7449009878839192 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.204729765456557, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1619840788920896, "record": 0.448920803312907, "prior_net_rating": 0.3631329963517439, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10855127857435493, "rotation_box_production": 0.2902624962497846, "star_box_production": 0.4366717935200576, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.071573813357851, "efg_pct": 0.3172644738178628, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2127543280279204, "turnover_rate": 0.19087539081901558, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10108473977676798, "oreb_pct": 0.08988702341549724, "dreb_pct": 0.09016260915103612, "ft_rate": -0.15263092719926757, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15063367191782906, "pace": 0.09844842267990703, "three_attempt_rate": -0.05642711391008607, "three_pct": 0.17547919963234548, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.024130958480895533, "opp_three_pct": -0.03354902445599056 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0591318122331335, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4190089123021969, "record": 0.6050183802896074, "prior_net_rating": 0.5498293620989975, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1538244235321111 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3171885957051064, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15087235525211962, "record": 0.46067435685928193, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03937966054681888, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.15221233113055782, "rotation_box_production": 0.3747580944819981, "star_box_production": 0.494019820956781, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0705961276562149, "efg_pct": 0.34350127368528716, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14365945641164907, "turnover_rate": 0.1411442075893714, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.041044103587673825, "oreb_pct": 0.07746908412896372, "dreb_pct": 0.06712723510018373, "ft_rate": -0.15072580799402124, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16561753932770515, "pace": 0.10295570814336677, "three_attempt_rate": -0.025838035263657237, "three_pct": 0.18792781651266433, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.0035373755153254647, "opp_three_pct": -0.0020546997963043867 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.04706410632587, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.24650197281338765, "record": 1.2523535555697864, "rotation_box_production": 0.49660383596074037, "star_box_production": 0.7129875973274136, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11689644378316408 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.8414692952259286, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16712021944811384, "record": 0.4634576315380922, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.0168392419397705, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.14551650593496093, "prior_net_rating": 0.5398576635597786, "retained_minutes_share": 0.1371183566709689, "efg_pct": 0.47493449668572335, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1489241579013738, "turnover_rate": 0.1333758251280198, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0411969991947532, "oreb_pct": 0.0496601808366576, "dreb_pct": 0.0601604663357241, "ft_rate": -0.12464558191561757, "opp_ft_rate": -0.11357981974984019, "pace": 0.14370926488393707, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07642846749163228, "three_pct": 0.18175502534359042, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.06373643127236435, "opp_three_pct": -0.02396582167043503 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.23352862685585, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.06894767559034823, "record": 1.126691461176543, "efg_pct": 0.9978048702106458, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2156948576317151, "turnover_rate": 0.12151093203430338, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.06707310348844442, "oreb_pct": 0.13819918743367485, "dreb_pct": 0.21950148419699594, "ft_rate": -0.2637090836775511, "opp_ft_rate": -0.2598027195053264 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1814952627329727, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2013784798759031, "record": 0.4831306632352928, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03925603801062845, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2324978529489468, "prior_net_rating": 0.36204905253594727, "retained_minutes_share": 0.11393770102098968, "rotation_box_production": 0.3263337794068464, "star_box_production": 0.4598301300783192, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.09638195131120561, "pace": 0.14318826651672606, "three_attempt_rate": 0.003908904428862256, "three_pct": 0.2744819428215413, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.03364423135683247, "opp_three_pct": -0.031029743135594368 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.033243310167172, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.29629479888033, "record": 1.3142084037331032, "pace": 0.40798758802005547, "three_attempt_rate": -0.03158223308121848, "three_pct": 0.39795130022206066, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.03500767421666451, "opp_three_pct": 0.09053509476749844 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2200224682196104, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.16007637028818933, "record": 0.44901224878087437, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03608051118788559, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17310396064350136, "prior_net_rating": 0.35686817786486796, "retained_minutes_share": 0.12465173734306854, "rotation_box_production": 0.3225436800824313, "star_box_production": 0.4354216832184842, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.07385081146661558, "efg_pct": 0.3956357350082534, "opp_efg_pct": -0.159049014100095, "turnover_rate": 0.16778790915960815, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.07176397622655126, "oreb_pct": 0.09857772686737065, "dreb_pct": 0.04794907293613608, "ft_rate": -0.1464342049728381, "opp_ft_rate": -0.13430878950660252 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0040189349320725, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.8414692952259286, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666656, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.6468708973423176, "brier": 0.9829657252154588, "championProbability": 0.070872634203062, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 3.6835099883682605, "brier": 1.0299911143124805, "championProbability": 0.025134597679071696, "topPick": "CLE", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.0418515531957846, "brier": 0.999032971181409, "championProbability": 0.0477464025960645, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.71564186184643, "brier": 1.065191203296624, "championProbability": 0.06616247220855366, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 3.7916996408799086, "brier": 1.0460682658994105, "championProbability": 0.022557230060878522, "topPick": "CLE", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.8925085191690716, "brier": 1.0491374641984197, "championProbability": 0.05543697333201912, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 0.9712442062945347, "brier": 0.4519716893510356, "championProbability": 0.3786116738992021, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.573837137457995, "brier": 0.9726077185862774, "championProbability": 0.07624243073601399, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 0.8679921746930199, "brier": 0.3855480250325709, "championProbability": 0.4197935758088601, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 3.266275074772969, "brier": 1.0094566640164775, "championProbability": 0.038148262172744855, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 0.7164831659360099, "brier": 0.3059451195910376, "championProbability": 0.4884670965118432, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 0.862887630741373, "brier": 0.44831160403809206, "championProbability": 0.4219419090330668, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.0388404423827655, "brier": 0.8264761548302162, "championProbability": 0.13017957411098552, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.2479254430753959, "brier": 0.5796877269150384, "championProbability": 0.2870997843247395, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.3200569747995856, "brier": 0.6132142689926035, "championProbability": 0.26712008241912805, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.8842908155274096, "brier": 0.8108347108324097, "championProbability": 0.15193677243054546, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.2535354094636995, "brier": 0.6038798829221599, "championProbability": 0.28549367351068383, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 0.862887630741373, "brier": 0.44831160403809206, "championProbability": 0.4219419090330668, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03503536496579585, "strength": 0.02436399496906183, "strength_record": 0.030550931568467596, "adv_record": 0.02680811858326753, "adv_strength": 0.02178367988363604, "adv_strength_record": 0.025972275794543954, "adv_full": 0.021278225586978842, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03182085652880793, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021856039344919514, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0279935305499335, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02303905142981311, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.038752056851998465, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.017051173066302994, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007878081670126285, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04067486852904708, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.034128576517511326, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.021989309340271636, "adv_selected": 0.038752056851998465 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006383729615358541, "strength": 0.026096719330942583, "strength_record": 0.01115158801088704, "adv_record": 0.0030206354382043337, "adv_strength": 0.02352704609714041, "adv_strength_record": 0.004328830031461507, "adv_full": 0.006274655312330064, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0044851570164233705, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005811796554530298, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013088344225703723, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005546460343875614, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023910827928757218, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010635002818592778, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0034106740627014884, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007907107111407272, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0042119067845906785, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007546574580882638, "adv_selected": 0.0023910827928757218 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.070872634203062, "strength": 0.058229260747139314, "strength_record": 0.07236498094655291, "adv_record": 0.06616247220855366, "adv_strength": 0.05783125894300683, "adv_strength_record": 0.07026988971053479, "adv_full": 0.04238490168733845, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09365034565911429, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.047377368638244065, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.12148567059043457, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.028175714808071208, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03766078247761936, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.10197059644560508, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09051083396648914, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06122412267316171, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06970451705026451, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.05367523346811293, "adv_selected": 0.03766078247761936 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001754389209370858, "strength": 0.004013647570838932, "strength_record": 0.0020030268166905804, "adv_record": 0.0005764988349970664, "adv_strength": 0.002887072695722974, "adv_strength_record": 0.0006459814703079108, "adv_full": 0.0009757337044490643, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006697466439987701, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008869881638802345, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004929863061880245, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000595157229205656, "adv_add_player_availability": 9.588358935749074e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0029355223137766543, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00029209586072653744, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015377257326915274, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008105690370956401, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010027429326404773, "adv_selected": 9.588358935749074e-05 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009038556769117592, "strength": 0.030379968494666808, "strength_record": 0.014873550612779491, "adv_record": 0.00471797866932871, "adv_strength": 0.027895191966084112, "adv_strength_record": 0.006541042185699533, "adv_full": 0.010886373975771281, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006234484843493061, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010003392920807042, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018306139935820708, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008749338756854016, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0028557556883991968, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.017505134252957882, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004136937567716259, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.015549915779558948, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.011554062024343238, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011072092548612843, "adv_selected": 0.0028557556883991968 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.070872634203062, "strength": 0.16458860857901664, "strength_record": 0.12102457009611779, "adv_record": 0.06616247220855366, "adv_strength": 0.18528840082093628, "adv_strength_record": 0.09421475289127787, "adv_full": 0.05832756347487088, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08541215343744989, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.053798136408630105, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.08560847572715166, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05035373212947129, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03506389534258068, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.10568800962036742, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09552014642845977, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06597482629104089, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09616913262751763, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06214000716133083, "adv_selected": 0.03506389534258068 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026431260456963965, "strength": 0.053502683280625844, "strength_record": 0.03795068238264118, "adv_record": 0.018677905785663945, "adv_strength": 0.052597191567222326, "adv_strength_record": 0.024028759022946537, "adv_full": 0.01228413796390314, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.024124003783177937, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011486219309556794, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0489201391922949, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008869376824069903, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015439928104953654, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01678634127085266, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007812654959555215, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.024928333005208126, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008171957502833392, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02110677581258843, "adv_selected": 0.015439928104953654 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.070872634203062, "strength": 0.025134597679071696, "strength_record": 0.0477464025960645, "adv_record": 0.06616247220855366, "adv_strength": 0.022557230060878522, "adv_strength_record": 0.05543697333201912, "adv_full": 0.3786116738992021, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07624243073601399, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.4197935758088601, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.038148262172744855, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.4884670965118432, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.4219419090330668, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.13017957411098552, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.2870997843247395, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.26712008241912805, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.15193677243054546, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.28549367351068383, "adv_selected": 0.4219419090330668 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001754389209370858, "strength": 0.0013568780461220705, "strength_record": 0.0011710397154191512, "adv_record": 0.0005764988349970664, "adv_strength": 0.0008563500817274446, "adv_strength_record": 0.0004756632692597675, "adv_full": 0.00012024651042632549, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007586723734161189, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00014066879759157874, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0010852972659157528, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00017522550784153257, "adv_add_player_availability": 6.79556350708837e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00031077985613440026, "adv_add_four_factors": 9.156393077133124e-05, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0003233991375204185, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0007106228848408655, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00012220165243600437, "adv_selected": 6.79556350708837e-05 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004232440473845753, "strength": 0.006179708018383346, "strength_record": 0.004250901813169413, "adv_record": 0.001783323653011515, "adv_strength": 0.004682659194542333, "adv_strength_record": 0.00186189691746341, "adv_full": 0.00969185525106546, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002719147439729383, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010731941272229808, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01410519043658199, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005511125749037172, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014564036232233284, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021154279475919816, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0044353015374817405, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010985599774567294, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005683992846756709, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009740588627306757, "adv_selected": 0.0014564036232233284 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.000919711631914925, "strength": 0.0043594395094945955, "strength_record": 0.0014054965375531804, "adv_record": 0.00025185379213898116, "adv_strength": 0.0031672188090669717, "adv_strength_record": 0.00033265853823065286, "adv_full": 0.0004020809227594999, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00046250190757667645, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004550098528500576, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0013725435842559522, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0005049351399538693, "adv_add_player_availability": 6.567840286265894e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008804810271889309, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00020319491226359194, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006098838895190308, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008777876640547035, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00038748974019935887, "adv_selected": 6.567840286265894e-05 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008561754837774684, "strength": 0.010513815843761733, "strength_record": 0.008510047811899318, "adv_record": 0.004401245140152222, "adv_strength": 0.00849417576695798, "adv_strength_record": 0.004576785997086953, "adv_full": 0.0022740294659711626, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006416060687293885, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002512681619493474, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005941523971164432, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0033149927229924915, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011776755240574348, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005345253255371481, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004127262492443976, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003365605655074316, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01676287744848011, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002160109828143981, "adv_selected": 0.0011776755240574348 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.023228599209533334, "strength": 0.007973263068758221, "strength_record": 0.013668170520127004, "adv_record": 0.01582698506334765, "adv_strength": 0.006230294403453464, "adv_strength_record": 0.012239034827895066, "adv_full": 0.01164267977026413, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012113497341488783, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01016991051087714, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.016673589542120025, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009631169202262577, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0025551502434314447, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.027619100237464857, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03291918403986283, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007981746725579957, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008201709037034474, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01458509043979741, "adv_selected": 0.0025551502434314447 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0010343011336665015, "strength": 0.0025148830580347353, "strength_record": 0.0011502347549621193, "adv_record": 0.0002927786422891442, "adv_strength": 0.0017098164952060763, "adv_strength_record": 0.00032271607284006044, "adv_full": 0.0011853212974650877, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003310081408266434, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0010877718024386383, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0016220415599133373, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0016398712055333865, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004007358722983637, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0010149681259252487, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00020441281913647472, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0019432771940247591, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00047881802795519046, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0013578420695025662, "adv_selected": 0.0004007358722983637 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04430954484848281, "strength": 0.027130419369336137, "strength_record": 0.03720057738995938, "adv_record": 0.03622831474183566, "adv_strength": 0.024573826499733453, "adv_strength_record": 0.03437023402165313, "adv_full": 0.05084290004193675, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04380963042369901, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.051718137996170595, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06443355072984042, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03012738585323815, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02482249845357378, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0709837383598273, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02786377693763701, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.057523053387766136, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.050612831795308504, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.046888754982903735, "adv_selected": 0.02482249845357378 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004232440473845753, "strength": 0.012161800385910505, "strength_record": 0.0059430273527327085, "adv_record": 0.001783323653011515, "adv_strength": 0.009999676180689535, "adv_strength_record": 0.002253895637026843, "adv_full": 0.004792982937985353, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002364389306682457, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004199743214609847, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019517549678657167, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002236558630329525, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008071759478962745, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011378580841008706, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0014389950476726735, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007807493315751398, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002085842283110349, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005571209988269436, "adv_selected": 0.0008071759478962745 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.2900163170330862, "strength": 0.07738771887806956, "strength_record": 0.19729424625681885, "adv_record": 0.4029976391334801, "adv_strength": 0.07954129932520121, "adv_strength_record": 0.34086075261605636, "adv_full": 0.23111967276521858, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.26939542760408053, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.19134528605179313, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.1510923668001517, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1916103419949482, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.32842266278045057, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.14579152777648102, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.19414030995048792, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.23647768427048876, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.22117610087755138, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.2794024261560375, "adv_selected": 0.32842266278045057 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006383729615358541, "strength": 0.00662879882812568, "strength_record": 0.0056594428285265605, "adv_record": 0.0030206354382043337, "adv_strength": 0.005065637394081809, "adv_strength_record": 0.0029404444138941403, "adv_full": 0.02331004421407093, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0034138584136681823, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022308798954208616, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012199292261421971, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01817353727783298, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006201133398091691, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01870790097076641, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006374279659816648, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.019603405540226024, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005362188559392803, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.026295873109849252, "adv_selected": 0.006201133398091691 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.017319474746339863, "strength": 0.058966835104153965, "strength_record": 0.030745969298162697, "adv_record": 0.010862278841533695, "adv_strength": 0.05865276876405383, "adv_strength_record": 0.015753094234254476, "adv_full": 0.02154205920114154, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017691104986169638, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023759666312635867, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02319482082081423, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.023157477975782978, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010508461820442272, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.028459021622422902, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016506507170384124, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02220421596349535, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02080291965914325, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019854786537136383, "adv_selected": 0.010508461820442272 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008561754837774684, "strength": 0.010080290599582648, "strength_record": 0.008334526061506411, "adv_record": 0.004401245140152222, "adv_strength": 0.008102672108325493, "adv_strength_record": 0.004522720442525713, "adv_full": 0.00496467000118562, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005092914604671651, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004633887216175019, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010483908950589139, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004175752261823954, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0012893783533529917, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009848069802553044, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0035606649801524096, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005486130450386724, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005267142575153697, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005088768419926712, "adv_selected": 0.0012893783533529917 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004232440473845753, "strength": 0.00830439981194861, "strength_record": 0.004920413438523998, "adv_record": 0.001783323653011515, "adv_strength": 0.006520969904372842, "adv_strength_record": 0.002023832388629874, "adv_full": 0.0009060241442159886, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002156150708656101, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008953287453364436, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0033232629985843996, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001255345474356215, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004918437863450888, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0014654524131071445, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0007641143698014337, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015184374947551523, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001967017066933531, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0011767583297278114, "adv_selected": 0.0004918437863450888 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001754389209370858, "strength": 0.006163278082438577, "strength_record": 0.002476738555834716, "adv_record": 0.0005764988349970664, "adv_strength": 0.0046687101020128595, "adv_strength_record": 0.0007291015522453168, "adv_full": 0.001230424485108583, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000850878143040435, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0011997507749618391, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0018407223837751123, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0017703275632053336, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00026521804580929956, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002289899806125018, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0015699607346156155, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001172354191589582, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008861839517210307, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0013621390362383396, "adv_selected": 0.00026521804580929956 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008561754837774684, "strength": 0.028386483698729325, "strength_record": 0.01391311035409037, "adv_record": 0.004401245140152222, "adv_strength": 0.02585226000088604, "adv_strength_record": 0.006057483213344861, "adv_full": 0.014685774365595039, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006883486821472117, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014673296167141216, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01883221227824506, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01323484707782609, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00861059314454779, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01534258359717658, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005972739911692051, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.024377968112115702, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005019304338393122, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.015341614050786236, "adv_selected": 0.00861059314454779 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.070872634203062, "strength": 0.13608517973171433, "strength_record": 0.11015320070519463, "adv_record": 0.06616247220855366, "adv_strength": 0.14972629960898223, "adv_strength_record": 0.08929178222771218, "adv_full": 0.04000978069338979, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08012352659128215, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03613346677999268, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.14451874996138642, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.021403433377380085, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02717714856878929, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08754566383663236, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.025399067870553488, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06041400073009372, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06187679289139856, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.050708386695869974, "adv_selected": 0.02717714856878929 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.070872634203062, "strength": 0.028917164568024768, "strength_record": 0.05117694560295994, "adv_record": 0.06616247220855366, "adv_strength": 0.026394463386850985, "adv_strength_record": 0.05767419175279651, "adv_full": 0.010805474070875676, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06031108063225435, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010645677279022665, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010532541587877283, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022409875410489107, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01348674516643415, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01434207365033067, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04973759570588335, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009521449148800569, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05038237040638895, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011323103603030866, "adv_selected": 0.01348674516643415 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005610216619772385, "strength": 0.011122675299163607, "strength_record": 0.00675614456348927, "adv_record": 0.002559577744469231, "adv_strength": 0.00904729937390585, "adv_strength_record": 0.002966036513340063, "adv_full": 0.0021225985932788356, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004311559800815399, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002410761102192575, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0037995603525842144, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0047140834950393975, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002029517373563062, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003183752788694644, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006027030228206619, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0035196777127269293, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006767984879108192, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002485986610784059, "adv_selected": 0.002029517373563062 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006383729615358541, "strength": 0.0021934198068296585, "strength_record": 0.0032737714476464195, "adv_record": 0.0030206354382043337, "adv_strength": 0.0014668631786946388, "adv_strength_record": 0.002152106902121626, "adv_full": 0.0044866089443515375, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032333459434880822, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005265992744273615, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005374062545880266, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004772271627804343, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007836952907186978, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009173506110067672, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00871093822332229, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0034530510769115266, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008732555790103578, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0040569142792791545, "adv_selected": 0.0007836952907186978 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.023228599209533334, "strength": 0.07710655069664674, "strength_record": 0.042019401660730066, "adv_record": 0.01582698506334765, "adv_strength": 0.0792175217834181, "adv_strength_record": 0.023219477145200493, "adv_full": 0.006310097775712808, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02454198932618389, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006130336344615681, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04711868888219361, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004116307692296662, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003022378295758504, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02051019781138859, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005784007737352763, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011783348209623115, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.017377465463685945, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0070782208818534606, "adv_selected": 0.003022378295758504 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09810618511365903, "strength": 0.08336111212973586, "strength_record": 0.10545360150312548, "adv_record": 0.10039086855728169, "adv_strength": 0.08645276053274731, "adv_strength_record": 0.10989101606073058, "adv_full": 0.024279708961865654, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.1254965261701963, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026414644548519182, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07849750844136617, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0193310211992038, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010375580369973667, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.09880102145253808, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.10373045729360732, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.022612846858850084, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.13019700834508594, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.027668356355792293, "adv_selected": 0.010375580369973667 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008561754837774684, "strength": 0.006796404813672023, "strength_record": 0.006857258797367122, "adv_record": 0.004401245140152222, "adv_strength": 0.0052093850704620715, "adv_strength_record": 0.004046570816900573, "adv_full": 0.0022516999812717347, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004884063984828875, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002153724763442066, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005960589510717162, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0029381855276179774, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0017810760224575384, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0031007932834341088, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0037774256063403196, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0023983896188898113, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0020829892336973414, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0033169692500050504, "adv_selected": 0.0017810760224575384 } } ] }, { "season": 2024, "champion": "BOS", "cutoffDate": "2023-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.8347231679183558 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1589814553196813, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3318131515512581 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.5198991711739045, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.23886597589429256, "record": 1.6239638121071829 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1989952906998114, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.12367996000458836, "record": 0.4401804397339923, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.061028265334759295, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.14107247689134644, "prior_net_rating": 0.36446968240873096, "retained_minutes_share": 0.0684095620757515, "rotation_box_production": 0.3221404501319702, "star_box_production": 0.4824648993103623, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08385699933249503, "efg_pct": 0.36578169086519674, "opp_efg_pct": -0.11023049454214619, "turnover_rate": 0.19297093522232295, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0697681428950714, "oreb_pct": 0.109616934036352, "dreb_pct": 0.08707614106868652, "ft_rate": -0.1631142205806642, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1494021337460876, "pace": 0.10048243438047769, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07875799192749695, "three_pct": 0.2261447086955231, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.04079291090281278, "opp_three_pct": -0.021492397924614173 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9590018956121362, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4635400216599865, "record": 1.7056846116454316, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.8606441927951095, "adjusted_def_rating": 1.046222818164917 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2354887131233436, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14374963472972585, "record": 0.4539568399444403, "prior_net_rating": 0.3570537572408314, "retained_minutes_share": 0.06717887211492293, "rotation_box_production": 0.3077757271748768, "star_box_production": 0.4768321474905911, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08166182222855417, "efg_pct": 0.336299433481347, "opp_efg_pct": -0.16400846562448307, "turnover_rate": 0.21950546966813606, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.11012983454467098, "oreb_pct": 0.10075719949548437, "dreb_pct": 0.11743996983051017, "ft_rate": -0.16916269766289463, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16416952459422457, "pace": 0.10914316053474134, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08322133883838384, "three_pct": 0.2132358535733406, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.02652225283001533, "opp_three_pct": -0.040222297231967255 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9598701757714574, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.38497556536940086, "record": 0.6360599025748289, "prior_net_rating": 0.54714381096547, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09913109954218727 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3962791356274287, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.13905409408058642, "record": 0.4636496980687497, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.04168700792891477, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1282434759972944, "rotation_box_production": 0.3871676732571142, "star_box_production": 0.5249237074668965, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08035350949394184, "efg_pct": 0.35996347639808507, "opp_efg_pct": -0.10743793545634629, "turnover_rate": 0.16983914634613598, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.057969133349497444, "oreb_pct": 0.08705778629676315, "dreb_pct": 0.09271630408248242, "ft_rate": -0.1661373797853133, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17375727919534553, "pace": 0.11160551162795958, "three_attempt_rate": -0.04975703364575965, "three_pct": 0.221813629619294, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.006588849120793573, "opp_three_pct": -0.014616794540430881 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9361823612933817, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.19003230265228072, "record": 1.2600305580714914, "rotation_box_production": 0.5549030625877468, "star_box_production": 0.7566097099627094, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.14748700818374427 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.759920823185549, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.14835183528356147, "record": 0.4894284594602965, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.018310694616347892, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.1029149493862443, "prior_net_rating": 0.5398692483959714, "retained_minutes_share": 0.08261692046240675, "efg_pct": 0.5168904710649713, "opp_efg_pct": -0.09732038272375378, "turnover_rate": 0.17489139219387007, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.05501867312706639, "oreb_pct": 0.057850814009621755, "dreb_pct": 0.11138832414842877, "ft_rate": -0.1505059160311162, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15136216248209622, "pace": 0.16968670255861762, "three_attempt_rate": -0.12368084769467257, "three_pct": 0.23394505851626127, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.07489932252370739, "opp_three_pct": -0.03668492819135911 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2173046114830934, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": -0.1282594205327307, "record": 1.1774855369987764, "efg_pct": 1.1007179620105594, "opp_efg_pct": -0.12760487935909745, "turnover_rate": 0.16341568093477005, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1115609712253215, "oreb_pct": 0.17830702408670782, "dreb_pct": 0.28540552156607546, "ft_rate": -0.3188402677027698, "opp_ft_rate": -0.2831383471027652 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.103697777761508, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.179786339168428, "record": 0.4942927445224133, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.049314412839974474, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.19494568068602786, "prior_net_rating": 0.3493227167927246, "retained_minutes_share": 0.06150222791865107, "rotation_box_production": 0.3462620768202314, "star_box_production": 0.5153215260917822, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11034187847996327, "pace": 0.17027907823018248, "three_attempt_rate": -0.025643196197160406, "three_pct": 0.32849067198336046, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.042075508119656005, "opp_three_pct": -0.030743142206140592 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9738111155532065, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.18152381067424447, "record": 1.3748829780911975, "pace": 0.4525958920199779, "three_attempt_rate": -0.08843042885132844, "three_pct": 0.5268649499620792, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.007470311021841265, "opp_three_pct": 0.09108299025993749 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.19204483049526, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.15029573596044282, "record": 0.46265669647773244, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.03377981665535772, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.13807239811678942, "prior_net_rating": 0.3438757964240248, "retained_minutes_share": 0.07467112913077412, "rotation_box_production": 0.3487105987987203, "star_box_production": 0.47854627734796384, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08902483939980818, "efg_pct": 0.42396673427405707, "opp_efg_pct": -0.11027411725024255, "turnover_rate": 0.20881525814460572, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09683793912280715, "oreb_pct": 0.11237635787805639, "dreb_pct": 0.0839245029121474, "ft_rate": -0.16898055204931692, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15127430818026494 }, "trainingSeasons": 17, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9414786411430411, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.759920823185549, "validationSeasons": 12, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666653, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.7406669536201687, "brier": 0.9999494675659798, "championProbability": 0.06452729582468139, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.3799768278255473, "brier": 0.6052715279154698, "championProbability": 0.2515843827494196, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.026567074734741, "brier": 0.8505401466098444, "championProbability": 0.13178716095657672, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.8379616145219506, "brier": 1.06912429810952, "championProbability": 0.058544881455832844, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.2629193926062852, "brier": 0.5601571400941688, "championProbability": 0.282827136627442, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.5119150533791914, "brier": 1.0133415969250255, "championProbability": 0.08111275515239594, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.2133615420570854, "brier": 1.0149458465316337, "championProbability": 0.10933250428466254, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.5108720869531194, "brier": 1.0168787592717732, "championProbability": 0.08119739716446184, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.288907150028363, "brier": 1.0331640190154454, "championProbability": 0.10137719139821735, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.6866795355459903, "brier": 0.7370970595918311, "championProbability": 0.18513323284882957, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.4918078622543587, "brier": 1.0736123431729796, "championProbability": 0.08276021218453411, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.2124896420896354, "brier": 1.3428538648861028, "championProbability": 0.04025626471685994, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.7979304641875675, "brier": 0.7831606089242159, "championProbability": 0.16564133442062862, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.853734517669204, "brier": 1.1692971657205828, "championProbability": 0.057628703101255806, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.076779136961198, "brier": 0.9127258158248268, "championProbability": 0.12533324400819248, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.744929537206765, "brier": 0.9953404922977722, "championProbability": 0.06425282821874857, "topPick": "PHI", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.1778495499795922, "brier": 1.0482857687310658, "championProbability": 0.11328488236640422, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 3.2124896420896354, "brier": 1.3428538648861028, "championProbability": 0.04025626471685994, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03193427738814906, "strength": 0.043246908225688094, "strength_record": 0.037315687906667665, "adv_record": 0.024162336410754326, "adv_strength": 0.04123334315287691, "adv_strength_record": 0.026236241623025437, "adv_full": 0.016380283725452055, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.025524080662902984, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01816364659850404, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03752541796145955, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016766774592545167, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01104408213321003, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.023572612550383138, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00856485946600965, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.025072534448419854, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03677856710616921, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016111181786737466, "adv_selected": 0.01104408213321003 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.018007571565476107, "strength_record": 0.01321021373646392, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.015817982776940544, "adv_strength_record": 0.007378951662564274, "adv_full": 0.004166488763462532, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007057264564855673, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004401018809161737, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01645237918372392, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0040252348751903914, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00027136547969124433, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.030270614438564172, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.025309354025915252, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0033182404525964274, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012178573950139219, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00298284485401254, "adv_selected": 0.00027136547969124433 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06452729582468139, "strength": 0.2515843827494196, "strength_record": 0.13178716095657672, "adv_record": 0.058544881455832844, "adv_strength": 0.282827136627442, "adv_strength_record": 0.08111275515239594, "adv_full": 0.10933250428466254, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08119739716446184, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10137719139821735, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.18513323284882957, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.08276021218453411, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04025626471685994, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.16564133442062862, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.057628703101255806, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.12533324400819248, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06425282821874857, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.11328488236640422, "adv_selected": 0.04025626471685994 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0022050014525780834, "strength": 0.004003682517027757, "strength_record": 0.0022257338930124267, "adv_record": 0.0008367754123038754, "adv_strength": 0.0030553770784648264, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008383849920107222, "adv_full": 0.0007314673265699041, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007062218398581704, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007628863485992132, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002171451547526617, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001075595391916917, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001824699821861058, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0015825862045571527, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000605426788091405, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0009598291435015565, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001429907286189781, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007182866041728507, "adv_selected": 0.0001824699821861058 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003208743079035464, "strength": 0.004915604933450741, "strength_record": 0.0031166913929276336, "adv_record": 0.001341515143185868, "adv_strength": 0.0038240142077505513, "adv_strength_record": 0.0013254449776203504, "adv_full": 0.0018097308078734344, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012603258290822285, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016559383004721593, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007726440845352545, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013059855279956975, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.000357001989100178, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0030587462684065064, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0003594251578347681, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003356917601504833, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010656712686581496, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0015353505603984108, "adv_selected": 0.000357001989100178 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004455487728592222, "strength": 0.009277268663285867, "strength_record": 0.005155762784165289, "adv_record": 0.0020274909050882065, "adv_strength": 0.007658947079426803, "adv_strength_record": 0.002163830116142516, "adv_full": 0.001885672201684062, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0018689560790489997, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017388126599645897, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01723957028207361, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0011125508752577492, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00020089835563046193, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0064690952166730434, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000783608732910557, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002508515606837168, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0015197748755764902, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0021815311906375687, "adv_selected": 0.00020089835563046193 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.08549446797791727, "strength": 0.031443563861818555, "strength_record": 0.060970217227048415, "adv_record": 0.08341207646250491, "adv_strength": 0.029098801674484056, "adv_strength_record": 0.07379559194726865, "adv_full": 0.0306575445698167, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07828416773795806, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03266849854822609, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03889331302301452, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04795884826544284, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.030978245990320674, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04275824936268464, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07766952236908657, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04711372511667523, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.13742031895897838, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02754924952875899, "adv_selected": 0.030978245990320674 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.25535186676588895, "strength": 0.09127238093641128, "strength_record": 0.2016271225920789, "adv_record": 0.33045073112633067, "adv_strength": 0.09332124477344995, "adv_strength_record": 0.30761001203925703, "adv_full": 0.4292605579109789, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.30033055249363494, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.43230551985033594, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.16308927712681792, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.4499639871861729, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.6150046350088352, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.20210905453101533, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.5055052648407544, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.2878213520581213, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.12365249736572193, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.4848140249039895, "adv_selected": 0.6150046350088352 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001337131520072577, "strength": 0.0065814693424508415, "strength_record": 0.002022348080787002, "adv_record": 0.00044595737646024896, "adv_strength": 0.00526166332061811, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005294956277008856, "adv_full": 0.0011368871814896545, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00043345226911041567, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001187661046634235, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001402521029285052, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0019862472654309017, "adv_add_player_availability": 5.860142801787052e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002405985420829814, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0008262516165186547, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0008375526360578467, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016024388547950107, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007774216714174144, "adv_selected": 5.860142801787052e-05 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04434221672466462, "strength": 0.06356397939463757, "strength_record": 0.05504769618473564, "adv_record": 0.03651760292630447, "adv_strength": 0.06282784142883482, "adv_strength_record": 0.0407817178807713, "adv_full": 0.02195360040192154, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03905356829874898, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021636907900150708, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0519696280970678, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02213035874158012, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01835693521207276, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.022861246986873415, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009853913272887043, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03563338100439768, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02479839466150651, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.023502804961246675, "adv_selected": 0.01835693521207276 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020939449997608477, "strength": 0.02785380786089375, "strength_record": 0.023215885841535427, "adv_record": 0.014207868344857133, "adv_strength": 0.025486049788857275, "adv_strength_record": 0.015042051920033923, "adv_full": 0.002842445870863563, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012992710956566109, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0027946707150468836, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006490927665369366, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0059534777039702376, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009565497929138376, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007992914004543375, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018662394328288617, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002769791109579788, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010811051760430193, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0024048641978323235, "adv_selected": 0.0009565497929138376 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04434221672466462, "strength": 0.019116770643083706, "strength_record": 0.03174441690449957, "adv_record": 0.03651760292630447, "adv_strength": 0.01688647880290612, "adv_strength_record": 0.03221987135006316, "adv_full": 0.014292708764458224, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.036813497637090686, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016606714349979252, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019166687354303612, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0258199293401408, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009899716557405541, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.025672299739404932, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06268810635854792, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01777178002334194, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.12189664209992855, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012261279910406011, "adv_selected": 0.009899716557405541 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006794962668102956, "strength": 0.03906131202284905, "strength_record": 0.013088935820965184, "adv_record": 0.0034480131804021565, "adv_strength": 0.03688964061271263, "adv_strength_record": 0.004589799322687795, "adv_full": 0.02221813100402841, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004180594452831424, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02138365671453376, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015601293364715614, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.023899136669469474, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0016116316253804875, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03568855328907081, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013283084489040833, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012991497812977345, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006883264752329108, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02077848250906656, "adv_selected": 0.0016116316253804875 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004455487728592222, "strength": 0.005059529395981731, "strength_record": 0.0039052788030555373, "adv_record": 0.0020274909050882065, "adv_strength": 0.00394661883207996, "adv_strength_record": 0.0019212296576891226, "adv_full": 0.004111120684209952, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017375162710803983, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003948484599121034, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006306122394077545, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005430591645071518, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0027064602012211387, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0026196972109108715, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0008792985532426152, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005649492302884662, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008665930623559606, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005401457073091441, "adv_selected": 0.0027064602012211387 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0006216320682115325, "strength": 0.003201194854779026, "strength_record": 0.0008856724287742161, "adv_record": 0.0001701292168246515, "adv_strength": 0.0023923719008916776, "adv_strength_record": 0.00019589885812071954, "adv_full": 0.001245496142295862, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0001384773152599814, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001079042080436048, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004285921577035592, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007570342168363815, "adv_add_player_availability": 3.4336437404834315e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0031740427698139567, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00018751324675558652, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013838504236033896, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003133813456824468, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001194097413316778, "adv_selected": 3.4336437404834315e-05 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.008931375047494215, "strength_record": 0.009580320788298256, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.007347226713224764, "adv_strength_record": 0.006430797481328614, "adv_full": 0.008020456687338213, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005847513133982737, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007862784479462667, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01222546063906094, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00808048520604733, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010108905916466366, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015498231591417149, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006565070105803832, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0072546009451772055, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010248190406709335, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006029470351067742, "adv_selected": 0.0010108905916466366 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03193427738814906, "strength": 0.0097077938385767, "strength_record": 0.018819782741580155, "adv_record": 0.024162336410754326, "adv_strength": 0.008048455456518621, "adv_strength_record": 0.019572374764464728, "adv_full": 0.03019918153845501, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02072635935998522, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0317630279449917, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.031919840641297624, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03157725469487004, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03713617248592016, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.023306395068294624, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009170141923550762, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06458553140519632, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.032937047188770906, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.026499519706527357, "adv_selected": 0.03713617248592016 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06452729582468139, "strength": 0.09928090559234809, "strength_record": 0.08607075736293912, "adv_record": 0.058544881455832844, "adv_strength": 0.10231141308522305, "adv_strength_record": 0.06759070547460225, "adv_full": 0.06524251115651514, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05882539000261449, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05936447559097974, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0579083798807813, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06789455577516934, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010750474240862222, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.12551649112158395, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09745069906072788, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04166673712987373, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06052120834008772, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.054882387735773655, "adv_selected": 0.010750474240862222 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.004725750360103262, "strength_record": 0.007156817362745088, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.0036627977422805584, "adv_strength_record": 0.005676024274133049, "adv_full": 0.002179204889706029, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005465889150808422, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0021952144932420145, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012988498442472865, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0017877579273554542, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009159697503591761, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0044762214556912745, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006740040745702888, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0046074732684637165, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0038964609806771723, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0018948304064709876, "adv_selected": 0.0009159697503591761 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.03785360272560755, "strength_record": 0.018566904770357984, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.03564419155415975, "adv_strength_record": 0.00853645395984233, "adv_full": 0.006110770464957134, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006867476463516946, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005390838014302008, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03277343630944349, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004121334754394113, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001250644027049959, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01037170547922666, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0013269497051023118, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010628580565827347, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00438586486051668, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005778094420600503, "adv_selected": 0.001250644027049959 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03193427738814906, "strength": 0.014950570595448548, "strength_record": 0.022937106541041894, "adv_record": 0.024162336410754326, "adv_strength": 0.01290609170096658, "adv_strength_record": 0.021302267300783637, "adv_full": 0.02263482806572589, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022527029312342236, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02338135307677136, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.026017320467244556, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.023637763809518895, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010338489177450182, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.036167011415617706, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01102382907029855, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03740921262186261, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06899899432622743, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014478191203306064, "adv_selected": 0.010338489177450182 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.026479812714563806, "strength_record": 0.015762858204647626, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.02411445752314656, "adv_strength_record": 0.007958644610492168, "adv_full": 0.002270090249369792, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006368967306326114, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002170640920069361, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013158099170635274, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002317089524552963, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0003769649742812838, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007647810924821744, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00230204597740682, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0025367820927355077, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006028387392773573, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0022985478260433337, "adv_selected": 0.0003769649742812838 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.19884819834912054, "strength": 0.11556557060095038, "strength_record": 0.19109383703732416, "adv_record": 0.24123978780519753, "adv_strength": 0.1207974986939042, "adv_strength_record": 0.24386105423097953, "adv_full": 0.16989835155498267, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.26061210091469744, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.17505141803466642, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.1789935450051544, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1372639649363938, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.20093241808851708, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.14658648321831727, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0673748033953693, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.22899752946782864, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.2420103112390009, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.14324231302761636, "adv_selected": 0.20093241808851708 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.018341744605958936, "strength_record": 0.013321973383558967, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.016139261960270206, "adv_strength_record": 0.007405610849005126, "adv_full": 0.014212541037104153, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006598350443789104, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01394200503781941, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01457404910674286, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.015873253880943378, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023720625058740057, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01860180864460157, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007211627589572208, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011733375875279855, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008298368409118203, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01257498821457914, "adv_selected": 0.0023720625058740057 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004455487728592222, "strength": 0.006206384264383233, "strength_record": 0.004288494367677228, "adv_record": 0.0020274909050882065, "adv_strength": 0.004934631064848323, "adv_strength_record": 0.0019997785649122843, "adv_full": 0.0007446809310085518, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016768959542015481, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007614779600548482, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0035359374260646973, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001053434306767522, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00025207843634445876, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0010102696711360745, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00030839939387677175, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0009681865405378884, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0007363973588231292, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009120531653030273, "adv_selected": 0.00025207843634445876 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006794962668102956, "strength": 0.008053207524848416, "strength_record": 0.006348938315919935, "adv_record": 0.0034480131804021565, "adv_strength": 0.0065609809454160875, "adv_strength_record": 0.003367361653175067, "adv_full": 0.0026513399988473646, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0034567140937741053, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0025589690454539582, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01370029443316589, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0022959553543416633, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001226546258313062, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0032303732306644822, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0009570355686339018, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005108308083907388, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016814279109893318, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003390885069013571, "adv_selected": 0.001226546258313062 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004455487728592222, "strength": 0.0017873034257282138, "strength_record": 0.0024243725906527708, "adv_record": 0.0020274909050882065, "adv_strength": 0.001264837975766359, "adv_strength_record": 0.0015665501128376408, "adv_full": 0.00061100198197369, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013720957842322924, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006379484769583377, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0012916801031733413, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0014071067738776486, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00015812326547739604, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001604825617332879, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003444761670337605, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005533716329494416, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0028577769744903263, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005575433960830889, "adv_selected": 0.00015812326547739604 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01192823461474321, "strength": 0.021697055321797568, "strength_record": 0.014387878217444777, "adv_record": 0.0069992083351251965, "adv_strength": 0.019394098033386136, "adv_strength_record": 0.007653688939378101, "adv_full": 0.008462559505032377, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006933863155056826, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007855768624129634, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02083832000594145, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006819736070339303, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010896121664644876, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.016993575237016514, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005657306061593816, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007433327348703342, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004526341648386293, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008507193687875572, "adv_selected": 0.0010896121664644876 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001337131520072577, "strength": 0.0025092604768917194, "strength_record": 0.0013001234145533533, "adv_record": 0.00044595737646024896, "adv_strength": 0.0018330208041492718, "adv_strength_record": 0.0004382543267054197, "adv_full": 0.0031660440599683014, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004279127206582132, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003644652755367498, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002838373922815573, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003040837533980851, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00018650111685771398, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00456951587221524, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0011001720952697196, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0022553427417202616, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010609518124983697, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002400244616995821, "adv_selected": 0.00018650111685771398 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0022050014525780834, "strength": 0.0057202359380456955, "strength_record": 0.002621010347965267, "adv_record": 0.0008367754123038754, "adv_strength": 0.004513524689003442, "adv_strength_record": 0.000899156330008072, "adv_full": 0.0015717982392483734, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007146586315232044, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001708775626347751, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003782580145352624, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0018835049698924548, "adv_add_player_availability": 8.385800433191479e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00854224903770275, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026264279607463898, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0017399365312452052, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006342365583720878, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010559776412551658, "adv_selected": 8.385800433191479e-05 } } ] }, { "season": 2026, "champion": "NYK", "cutoffDate": "2025-11-10", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.788131796137565 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2112106983352406, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4068845449730216 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.4232084189763956, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.48148814207184637, "record": 1.3775470757746395 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2230660416751484, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.1713157352841235, "record": 0.3987614869956704, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.04207896609903393, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.18002357338468042, "prior_net_rating": 0.4195306704850279, "retained_minutes_share": 0.028207272199568974, "rotation_box_production": 0.36429337644849374, "star_box_production": 0.4180314174440058, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0886180746612296, "efg_pct": 0.3425393663322502, "opp_efg_pct": -0.10575414618574366, "turnover_rate": 0.1899383714435694, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.011195526903280174, "oreb_pct": 0.11248153265163083, "dreb_pct": 0.10725611909595285, "ft_rate": -0.1684417917470406, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17076371516499766, "pace": 0.1280814862030002, "three_attempt_rate": -0.015218087089553837, "three_pct": 0.2167763671008174, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.09643385991676857, "opp_three_pct": -0.023410171482660305 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9785680222617477, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.767872274314114, "record": 1.4528542329589942, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.9162730517358926, "adjusted_def_rating": 1.082973396071233 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.256672049571788, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.20397302211398693, "record": 0.41733079210049556, "prior_net_rating": 0.41213786626455123, "retained_minutes_share": 0.027105910402202227, "rotation_box_production": 0.35019202625234264, "star_box_production": 0.4101358377086615, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08608906354113996, "efg_pct": 0.313617654861449, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17062956918912328, "turnover_rate": 0.21770519169535033, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0575993180943228, "oreb_pct": 0.10436893911004576, "dreb_pct": 0.14202081152188573, "ft_rate": -0.17392914325229192, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18816390927207158, "pace": 0.13661570946526108, "three_attempt_rate": -0.0181015954035717, "three_pct": 0.2053195344803263, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.08204748433271718, "opp_three_pct": -0.047325966057745965 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9851807122527576, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4399933106576893, "record": 0.6122655595626517, "prior_net_rating": 0.5915133579809011, "retained_minutes_share": 0.07122481872321372 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3416945510057796, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.19034819843936937, "record": 0.41910366103616903, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.020256122086604593, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.16765719265917253, "rotation_box_production": 0.43798156344622274, "star_box_production": 0.46396406428314924, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08686081778166224, "efg_pct": 0.3317587636945559, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1037377128322599, "turnover_rate": 0.1663976782415894, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.005033114649463288, "oreb_pct": 0.08872206824770631, "dreb_pct": 0.11430927520780061, "ft_rate": -0.17016755050297563, "opp_ft_rate": -0.19366033018232842, "pace": 0.13587069283952896, "three_attempt_rate": 0.016519996550082124, "three_pct": 0.20993869931870146, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.06135551577292296, "opp_three_pct": -0.01887600714213383 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.978922784444226, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.37513732385352666, "record": 1.0500742650987922, "rotation_box_production": 0.674531742159458, "star_box_production": 0.5872161122924778, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.15625354496628083 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.871656886178171, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.19605492861122378, "record": 0.4618358147828183, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.041998874392806605, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.13848550671449525, "prior_net_rating": 0.5894243114640016, "retained_minutes_share": 0.05349191330840748, "efg_pct": 0.4952822549241516, "opp_efg_pct": -0.09311519647325378, "turnover_rate": 0.1692998320765117, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.004728545911644087, "oreb_pct": 0.07131866889742923, "dreb_pct": 0.13046594537897532, "ft_rate": -0.16107777472080734, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1651324738753439, "pace": 0.1918610052937802, "three_attempt_rate": -0.07225940699148731, "three_pct": 0.21629429457196617, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.12066887121003023, "opp_three_pct": -0.03864316007720509 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1850450616911297, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21662257210067717, "record": 1.0125863132662964, "efg_pct": 0.9803184965005308, "opp_efg_pct": -0.04321851908499399, "turnover_rate": 0.2167030876551985, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.004658188199547843, "oreb_pct": 0.17180663412131236, "dreb_pct": 0.2975977667313111, "ft_rate": -0.308288814860115, "opp_ft_rate": -0.3082960439203404 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1613929116005615, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21915716989039985, "record": 0.4533344110292025, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.035898942889945655, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.22899203050893593, "prior_net_rating": 0.4016045349002378, "retained_minutes_share": 0.03164916544687603, "rotation_box_production": 0.38852571461488394, "star_box_production": 0.4529357055684417, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11129035933720942, "pace": 0.17606009831579142, "three_attempt_rate": 0.032549784154454614, "three_pct": 0.31056251438152227, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.08729272868196494, "opp_three_pct": -0.042003456270585084 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9817317325845905, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.37895608427626665, "record": 1.202642862193727, "pace": 0.4367138238139978, "three_attempt_rate": -0.013472513009614523, "three_pct": 0.4552050584869601, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.08131010602151124, "opp_three_pct": 0.04931884746793614 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.234574423319222, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.20179397256675108, "record": 0.4193106774506851, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.009582760489435675, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.17585870333830136, "prior_net_rating": 0.40210021864293205, "retained_minutes_share": 0.03131521814609288, "rotation_box_production": 0.39518051774590496, "star_box_production": 0.4082523346572483, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.09497755521937007, "efg_pct": 0.4081821492947498, "opp_efg_pct": -0.09732791830871797, "turnover_rate": 0.2143952788777018, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.05154491661193502, "oreb_pct": 0.11422561953653772, "dreb_pct": 0.10572778966150258, "ft_rate": -0.1634050437264396, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17532894192069215 }, "trainingSeasons": 18, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9596610187458527, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.871656886178171, "validationSeasons": 13, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666661, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 3.1377801730211394, "brier": 1.010762327286405, "championProbability": 0.04337898494426716, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.8205053371340303, "brier": 0.9545726756174916, "championProbability": 0.05957582922205205, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.965150758975684, "brier": 0.9923060765231942, "championProbability": 0.05155269662749567, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 3.251572287025804, "brier": 1.0547004875212511, "championProbability": 0.03871329154930182, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.8160730910423246, "brier": 0.9613915847133689, "championProbability": 0.05984047000157743, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.1240309891310525, "brier": 1.0450125639604382, "championProbability": 0.04397952962429756, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.8895811449109026, "brier": 1.057914898298033, "championProbability": 0.05559949586678273, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 3.00105616481967, "brier": 0.9902489650617533, "championProbability": 0.04973451277634812, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.8843395273910564, "brier": 1.05486041004424, "championProbability": 0.05589169228033606, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 3.005052721597897, "brier": 1.05849362463466, "championProbability": 0.049536142635004776, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.953379171455371, "brier": 1.0830176302069006, "championProbability": 0.05216313960010567, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.8651776173094916, "brier": 1.2857292309619308, "championProbability": 0.020959199389817953, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.7507140333939315, "brier": 0.9628384520025519, "championProbability": 0.06388223087173353, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.314424882032007, "brier": 0.8945948280897973, "championProbability": 0.098823002546298, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 3.2137769335881563, "brier": 1.1009382373238732, "championProbability": 0.04020447650993856, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.0737511316444466, "brier": 0.9792073102386128, "championProbability": 0.04624734918225929, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.011245004319858, "brier": 1.0915029495705273, "championProbability": 0.049230348593555705, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 3.8651776173094916, "brier": 1.2857292309619308, "championProbability": 0.020959199389817953, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.013832250241332401, "strength": 0.018429528892346326, "strength_record": 0.014165012702199888, "adv_record": 0.009604729778725705, "adv_strength": 0.016642813462642857, "adv_strength_record": 0.009697844718405608, "adv_full": 0.0042121593651066325, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010917513152909437, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004396488925676049, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01116013558233878, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005046016634599756, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001992261186279528, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008130488148179106, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003500756918666138, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0058688705817172, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01068429370327152, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00389306661600829, "adv_selected": 0.001992261186279528 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008903589354146621, "strength": 0.0014252992202074969, "strength_record": 0.0007307944548375888, "adv_record": 0.000338520736532584, "adv_strength": 0.001020481509040831, "adv_strength_record": 0.00028343244330722396, "adv_full": 0.0001009453750288483, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009197404843508555, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0001193365371348168, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0007831565515235959, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00016568496790321166, "adv_add_player_availability": 3.0638074445403625e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00022562505471045123, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00015216069265953447, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00014587763604921507, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003044192073148167, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00011764280499630435, "adv_selected": 3.0638074445403625e-05 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010127790001264953, "strength": 0.029134152684799138, "strength_record": 0.015046961301560495, "adv_record": 0.006567240069328447, "adv_strength": 0.02742536209509431, "adv_strength_record": 0.00858466178945225, "adv_full": 0.002904683053937127, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008732051253904902, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0027328805194831445, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.031860817199392884, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0015970120654733696, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008265851958780964, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008828709738373679, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0022303854750209853, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004576644705739624, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0035026220951583655, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0036158055402764656, "adv_selected": 0.0008265851958780964 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004410687501901214, "strength": 0.010473870639832171, "strength_record": 0.005374269451235386, "adv_record": 0.0023829240663986876, "adv_strength": 0.008985937318706304, "adv_strength_record": 0.0026834905177620205, "adv_full": 0.002298124281579598, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004880750246658032, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002626264540694375, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0021680862952089194, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005596582493404318, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005563951205715852, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003958032436018485, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01139521880197335, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013672944107369315, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005707922657664873, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001994577188771118, "adv_selected": 0.0005563951205715852 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04337898494426716, "strength": 0.02511628467788518, "strength_record": 0.03260202805562444, "adv_record": 0.03871329154930182, "adv_strength": 0.02332709081964112, "adv_strength_record": 0.03185881280319676, "adv_full": 0.028088336752377128, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04547628198707061, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03057676445002784, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019991119872517137, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.042113439290168336, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012995920022819758, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.040602767674813536, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07678415672144032, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02092668877245335, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06163338771902472, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0221660543461568, "adv_selected": 0.012995920022819758 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05452010644417072, "strength": 0.041628078852820084, "strength_record": 0.048730222332755355, "adv_record": 0.05116053621851179, "adv_strength": 0.040475486450990306, "adv_strength_record": 0.047688304127591376, "adv_full": 0.03348259334478349, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05834293526393125, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03207331804156701, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07598345236076513, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022674849056916656, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017058225397122432, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.051599444501013, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019184669072871283, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.05369730705318925, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07623469334327856, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03079476127772096, "adv_selected": 0.017058225397122432 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003509368547083923, "strength": 0.0036156994269098304, "strength_record": 0.0026737604814702897, "adv_record": 0.0018031639412129637, "adv_strength": 0.0028168047426277766, "adv_strength_record": 0.0014554743546984427, "adv_full": 0.001068560822808959, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017518371632698378, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0010456717093840129, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003642376452429017, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0011979508951129167, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00023917750483175195, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0017940855690098663, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0004926101658891668, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014664189761498302, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012018574830016313, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0011522910853527556, "adv_selected": 0.00023917750483175195 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09294023171341918, "strength": 0.12303290121223502, "strength_record": 0.11834296597691972, "adv_record": 0.09804905143614805, "adv_strength": 0.13198043661849235, "adv_strength_record": 0.11795813591719703, "adv_full": 0.31431022786414753, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10622039909104655, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.3235860802369801, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07768076130497764, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.3830203320875516, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.48478350631332595, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.1060672245139728, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.1451492885622087, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.2723014922525959, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07109464800925634, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.33122047478172933, "adv_selected": 0.48478350631332595 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.10824020945656188, "strength": 0.04442687068375184, "strength_record": 0.07537247405241745, "adv_record": 0.11807557146037599, "adv_strength": 0.043452454713693224, "adv_strength_record": 0.0930642505062379, "adv_full": 0.022611931109721196, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08636941177847066, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021526730007092376, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04852847484932646, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022377265294772304, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04121976961285362, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.022061681887221688, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010647472636864073, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04319229363452031, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07506417766158761, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.022107014913215546, "adv_selected": 0.04121976961285362 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018891697667007618, "strength": 0.02463818242261144, "strength_record": 0.019833332565821274, "adv_record": 0.014047123776270546, "adv_strength": 0.022843196320754582, "adv_strength_record": 0.01448555649819467, "adv_full": 0.01347682833561964, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01537570046809042, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013945320729797591, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02479842628191596, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012482428569780815, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0021608971910878965, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.031963502419330325, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.029378740275519188, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010070558159447211, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0160266114426309, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01326088965305142, "adv_selected": 0.0021608971910878965 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04337898494426716, "strength": 0.10725016211034925, "strength_record": 0.0704220317703091, "adv_record": 0.03871329154930182, "adv_strength": 0.11362631579507826, "adv_strength_record": 0.05477193997077644, "adv_full": 0.140255464669628, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.052883927614986864, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.14285260212534687, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06099201185333103, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1156878224475038, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.038329077718573246, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.16021808674446952, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.12416891524465146, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.07748114173910187, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08992986815723351, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10624822157623277, "adv_selected": 0.038329077718573246 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008903589354146621, "strength": 0.002507927467138769, "strength_record": 0.000986257203037818, "adv_record": 0.000338520736532584, "adv_strength": 0.0018900381435436216, "adv_strength_record": 0.000349989174466253, "adv_full": 0.0002430803882123341, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004256916756348813, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0002337343756952373, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002565839877093278, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00019428305647522663, "adv_add_player_availability": 3.2758582448271255e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006251732177068436, "adv_add_four_factors": 3.509451462297156e-05, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006135383281981817, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003678872214507128, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0001852954488885134, "adv_selected": 3.2758582448271255e-05 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004410687501901214, "strength": 0.006114553183233044, "strength_record": 0.004039371560831711, "adv_record": 0.0023829240663986876, "adv_strength": 0.004996000217656754, "adv_strength_record": 0.0021950772479885448, "adv_full": 0.01066464906021155, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0048777807946504236, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011856353211312065, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008957838057023068, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008259456440274928, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011519494416907799, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01423127379253803, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011918972092578172, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004356829927823743, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016326175660429047, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01199128055105077, "adv_selected": 0.0011519494416907799 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05452010644417072, "strength": 0.02325353803988876, "strength_record": 0.03577920461519184, "adv_record": 0.05116053621851179, "adv_strength": 0.021446632477242253, "adv_strength_record": 0.038371748805996725, "adv_full": 0.013676040532148688, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.058511897520039303, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015528204195195822, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02588009962878658, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014415635929731068, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008409177022299383, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.027931669951740765, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.048125194123578095, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010458530211877756, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.027474089373968495, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016438126313559558, "adv_selected": 0.008409177022299383 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005429481887636488, "strength": 0.0058698024479415115, "strength_record": 0.004464336015940331, "adv_record": 0.003070282772125157, "adv_strength": 0.004778286951430971, "adv_strength_record": 0.0026279804977039044, "adv_full": 0.0027305932036615138, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004139554422893623, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00294691101050229, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008988998601388002, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002313476844367526, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006805575952611254, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005339391445444681, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0012728123382008405, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004193880309377728, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003923099590451146, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00230204452471202, "adv_selected": 0.0006805575952611254 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.027461532286452053, "strength": 0.06326847871512042, "strength_record": 0.04072168707836257, "adv_record": 0.02216716323108384, "adv_strength": 0.06389706483391232, "adv_strength_record": 0.02927191870146594, "adv_full": 0.01791105796055942, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.029255740711584866, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018016938840369236, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02558696299740246, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.019259081539903355, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0026276515670467402, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07820893568935475, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03548858538517877, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018661865524561255, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.1218220699274696, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009708673266772222, "adv_selected": 0.0026276515670467402 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.027461532286452053, "strength": 0.02008952523098018, "strength_record": 0.022156955001978555, "adv_record": 0.02216716323108384, "adv_strength": 0.018284331030228307, "adv_strength_record": 0.019075630492194073, "adv_full": 0.04800515743307057, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.032024962139158716, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.052254779542205004, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.021651454716511382, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.058991009077769566, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02534699571301514, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03787595155232342, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04456794182927258, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.050779069493391664, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03841701047916721, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0384946196934699, "adv_selected": 0.02534699571301514 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.027461532286452053, "strength": 0.042615607125594715, "strength_record": 0.033020084636834396, "adv_record": 0.02216716323108384, "adv_strength": 0.04152387142549377, "adv_strength_record": 0.025257490099808908, "adv_full": 0.022217573102187624, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03761868990302817, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02444566580054767, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04480509495853991, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016042211798951347, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0037701264941361807, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0850398790613025, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0528507775260052, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018465347077827925, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05213521061624245, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01762849611707878, "adv_selected": 0.0037701264941361807 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002058647188752542, "strength": 0.0030500425843173855, "strength_record": 0.001787567376088373, "adv_record": 0.0009408641161859305, "adv_strength": 0.0023397499971357857, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008275321583007985, "adv_full": 0.00043088712191516446, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0019484127311139665, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004960021144988499, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0011311154830036863, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008362759507838207, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00016232801866791871, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006075256334331407, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000382239255627692, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006078712230764301, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0009353111092879436, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0003285287731524765, "adv_selected": 0.00016232801866791871 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04337898494426716, "strength": 0.05957582922205205, "strength_record": 0.05155269662749567, "adv_record": 0.03871329154930182, "adv_strength": 0.05984047000157743, "adv_strength_record": 0.04397952962429756, "adv_full": 0.05559949586678273, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04973451277634812, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05589169228033606, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.049536142635004776, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05216313960010567, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.020959199389817953, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06388223087173353, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.098823002546298, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04020447650993856, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.04624734918225929, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.049230348593555705, "adv_selected": 0.020959199389817953 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.2287158081758734, "strength": 0.154900274074652, "strength_record": 0.22659498485377114, "adv_record": 0.2940393650455097, "adv_strength": 0.16967288197992558, "adv_strength_record": 0.2995784929919652, "adv_full": 0.20062748935519262, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.20751229463845927, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.17429374679718454, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.3595452296786612, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.12032704648257082, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.29510597451176745, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.1610639647257579, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08485249470824936, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.3001673885222541, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.12004899015586111, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.2451309973501239, "adv_selected": 0.29510597451176745 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00696724220422442, "strength": 0.01751416732717588, "strength_record": 0.009226928214421502, "adv_record": 0.00416159853927461, "adv_strength": 0.015743289459095932, "adv_strength_record": 0.004995674343992807, "adv_full": 0.0031457186692123384, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006488922045836294, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003441987950841623, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009354850935292964, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003590443703828325, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0015768884322870163, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005206366563700687, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0026069783208006753, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004098584133565877, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005296393781122618, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0039771727282159755, "adv_selected": 0.0015768884322870163 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.027461532286452053, "strength": 0.031226119775854967, "strength_record": 0.02799824278851706, "adv_record": 0.02216716323108384, "adv_strength": 0.029580072308630544, "adv_strength_record": 0.022489465704645575, "adv_full": 0.006406148847362123, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.031694719302637404, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006877276492838694, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009910989977606739, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012158625573480398, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004662445010829404, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010775161246902577, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015412961575206552, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00791540193243317, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.04165233567693673, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00486634400585938, "adv_selected": 0.004662445010829404 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.013832250241332401, "strength": 0.013231850182853845, "strength_record": 0.011881688200355454, "adv_record": 0.009604729778725705, "adv_strength": 0.011595331101861136, "adv_strength_record": 0.008569654248834824, "adv_full": 0.010493837781821337, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012738482685144895, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01146015641117818, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008726410037479093, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014450887452000852, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0031488018536974006, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011329795694833052, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016588352794725227, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007819664338187324, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01090079298237212, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009949903859309434, "adv_selected": 0.0031488018536974006 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020246735994776565, "strength": 0.028733368246356424, "strength_record": 0.02240996893239229, "adv_record": 0.015285399711972208, "adv_strength": 0.027014126570201344, "adv_strength_record": 0.016372937428573524, "adv_full": 0.0023961044566497367, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019296198969252838, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002636136877935725, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014271489496466214, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002830939117218915, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011419870555522, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006768225095444267, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0038586593567611705, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0041512074714322575, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.028821295533567833, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00249749484071589, "adv_selected": 0.0011419870555522 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003509368547083923, "strength": 0.005312027107987835, "strength_record": 0.00327910863870407, "adv_record": 0.0018031639412129637, "adv_strength": 0.0042852518440467365, "adv_strength_record": 0.001680222804228802, "adv_full": 0.0039996522556476795, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003027561323274161, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004346171411371713, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0042701782982376675, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0049257084042001855, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009183071997959344, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005951511543256956, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0021270991622892644, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005113419541022944, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005389920199398159, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0025172713176760037, "adv_selected": 0.0009183071997959344 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09294023171341918, "strength": 0.05544550112149966, "strength_record": 0.07753530061529947, "adv_record": 0.09804905143614805, "adv_strength": 0.05533007959939781, "adv_strength_record": 0.08760257304639921, "adv_full": 0.032096162968861336, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09013340268071632, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03276623823688501, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03511194834985904, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04664508097687732, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02609588705081853, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.037824535989228955, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.14937936873741348, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02101169959772561, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05661200379838845, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0428802112877333, "adv_selected": 0.02609588705081853 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.013832250241332401, "strength": 0.03192836502925071, "strength_record": 0.018959756480305272, "adv_record": 0.009604729778725705, "adv_strength": 0.030306364925470466, "adv_strength_record": 0.011905893246501802, "adv_full": 0.005686669972107707, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014904328502721208, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006046136284550645, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00963579991802753, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009042295216477852, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0038168000701134003, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0098591658224239, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0068857685150134585, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009533657022599753, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0242590830768023, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00457298575272394, "adv_selected": 0.0038168000701134003 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004410687501901214, "strength": 0.005245964411343538, "strength_record": 0.003724029947404783, "adv_record": 0.0023829240663986876, "adv_strength": 0.004227158231793396, "adv_strength_record": 0.0020730620879625306, "adv_full": 0.0005873679849065653, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00319287272124026, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006459598750258648, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002076568474903513, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0009987297603483226, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00017852265167267917, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0012145605755468725, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0011013283227841251, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005517618484370027, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016496668984664858, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005726788805264388, "adv_selected": 0.00017852265167267917 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008903589354146621, "strength": 0.0009460278830105215, "strength_record": 0.0005879780679165396, "adv_record": 0.000338520736532584, "adv_strength": 0.0006526190545939071, "adv_strength_record": 0.0002432236478534565, "adv_full": 0.00027245806475080313, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006034259515756814, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00033445046834125166, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00040416927498637196, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0005962892714475466, "adv_add_player_availability": 2.11890012932651e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008150328402146037, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0006379943276301222, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00020121906456795717, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001030371351321606, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00015672691136381023, "adv_selected": 2.11890012932651e-05 } } ] } ], "selectionAudit": [ { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8736582951453897 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.1153506013913486 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8420692692746745 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.314414379657182 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9239044576042466 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.150220331837726 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8836440094471176 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.323924533998718 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7769851566012915 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8964823453623691 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5690837222279104 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2442923375565886 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.640294842122323 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.724502927398323 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6917089906257856 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0370268359918025 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8647305468028474 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9754772053180318 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.504384335550616 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2064210594109563 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.945822199311838 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.794191891169565 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7458473555321703 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.066096266430076 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 13.325298496318135 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.724012120735155 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.7089400219996174 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3784414298078773 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2905315223843346 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3368301319883633 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7382584571528237 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.898121789630941 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0530268998374572 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1690749415803086 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8728632222257684 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.026625095520751 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 13.786843362548687 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.702759716598688 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.4293246703451943 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2359242003044693 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.78386679027016 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5573418426506245 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.501226510138947 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.162406362979775 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 15.0240788207141 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.820045372006319 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.887065474614118 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.105876131089013 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.087053263550489 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0910072274781837 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5220404395353855 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.211561584789276 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.818464528226562 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.746319279742758 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.68115782389961 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0609751490239767 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.0714629453131006 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.7771528487062802 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.7167799440329514 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.4473265493482088 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.706868757011237 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.596324039823174 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2684716964889207 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1055757151232684 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4094328208487248 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5026925869674708 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.258846058487976 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1182104955517327 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.258005419225226 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1244898800114447 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1404287891145533 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.006814025647929052 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.27483615175959125 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2027607117319747 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6566383185019125 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.9567154886468057 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2523071944019952 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0010653512691996 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0733715414948843 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.002863069456365989 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.29351487348703553 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2848090429469277 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7085718961056267 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.577999137687611 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.8472641187240496 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8465617666377818 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0549983753258148 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7095929233733276 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9486884471847098 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.4164018002799112 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.721714973842917 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5794480749010866 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4638886453362723 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7949546332789574 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.930201499293999 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.0671765753767693 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.4780201536763703 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.4035106683532115 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8319046727603645 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.38238256757723316 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7041838575164098 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.747492341803334 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.99085845255643 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.10153266235090992 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.37397767743998717 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3942849628397618 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7833147485150587 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3286581561626296 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3466102093077341 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.09788016659576 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1161151862246332 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.02759528140021743 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.4489763156231588 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2192836723409135 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.673648931677989 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.7995269029993801 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.2388675473225312 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.2642359842469129 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.90797184910178 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0749889261081176 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6991261560753967 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2732587167024816 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.4169188790462957 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.276437100181159 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1815920560505746 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3504760563088243 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.4460539452802936 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.527483984223251 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.763420573134244 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2360424630172644 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5031712210756805 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7852438089420553 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3298515332302294 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.990058886453123 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.632594305687456 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.515333620002131 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7845800691395968 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2181583401231038 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.6368417754313591 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7170043195183438 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.296149314417958 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9995557782742015 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3815692780719653 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.186109557821916 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.383123046139898 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1209974732415393 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9015204837094428 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.486903170220331 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6629220684389994 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0832497686597944 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.275256648907404 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.947027478186353 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7922720771617695 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1622950428237107 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.814152494474893 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.580066742284359 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3540974148904685 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0419935176874398 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.574441454005437 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.736462903508562 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8079831872864833 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1897426839644614 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.9536069811443015 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.287268195454948 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.588602820005439 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0270649066163933 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.401556645404725 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0295310953271004 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7818097495944443 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2044787374208674 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6965552274344133 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0943710507485038 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.22619718162943 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.010507099351411 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.2010278276189923 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.254172650968547 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.751499515481408 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.731390266189141 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.4441130164756477 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.180060553632294 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.339855098157263 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.767052350047146 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.620616888950825 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.344404108897585 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3734624193649814 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.8212791262397934 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.6201608046554448 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.26918909660911 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3224549843130875 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 9.855538725059384 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.57143183091393 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.5039474056965214 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.147728688308134 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.601222829669868 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.5059137866616448 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.2534880955011563 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.298867566333538 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 11.194523812584439 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.947512834995839 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.55525964869736 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1616032119394566 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.156068767944525 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.8221188732319353 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.2690244079194595 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2881774414689136 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 7.606560495646101 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.091865580020335 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.5624700959587976 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1692945306855305 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.854581381589621 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.6657440175664706 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1928950722438683 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2064958526938936 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.160799077956696 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.798964805130228 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.4449987389593613 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.233534881511072 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.894480501486875 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.3244579314317395 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.363471381173158 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.261809125851216 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.422239086211483 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.9500408199626578 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.254572729015624 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.178267911413883 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.141624246016161 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.89532912860351 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.4079285161964012 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3344045548466306 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 10.862770215673725 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.297122158494382 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.3432110174187817 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1280839527265436 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.2945852354448997 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.6161786423997557 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4839397400539736 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.27760405926471 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.325704023691184 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.720367347799522 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2599039668475505 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.138995736457653 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2038888017190867 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6648469124278056 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2561335331811594 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.199411494680011 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.1892157750430545 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.445194729827248 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.138744331708419 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 11.149193366586855 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.7933731608673664 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1246827161434974 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6833557871959273 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.5787646906958424 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5938651336848975 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6185739271033643 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.120772680795538 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 11.38020415635002 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.4536563860937775 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9606021058561491 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.673809814855741 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7675909942419932 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.73730229659125 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.110165445130982 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0164233605265864 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 7.550151036302971 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.43310871429148 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2258600735608973 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7574178468407426 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.7707592065723438 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.8651211553071323 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.482828821928986 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7781973434473155 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.373493361837647 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.3711243302070772 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5922026118636894 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.957973198207532 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.0671615021085947 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8567610703022486 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7470751953262833 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1116069568158062 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3976043181745417 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7440894843550616 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6529859036083194 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.658533221916729 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3200135839696436 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2553801123061454 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3802828269757352 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0867921581169204 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.761834019205269 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1408126340909606 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.123219166400165 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.717358512473088 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.389703556258403 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.1792559503873905 }, { "season": 2013, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.1806235150331226 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0544301117671715 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0566421124591425 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4853448420342836 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2062747519300645 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.408229878894703 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.3442802150177884 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.234678164838106 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3487925874064124 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3140624337309643 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.399649605220412 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6481697780982083 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1765451973707637 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9912858967610492 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.6204988632867416 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.499064582747797 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.890778694753837 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2883306877487284 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3668536255730817 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.685356440426291 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1570517860868637 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.6153826903511526 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1793459209772332 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6434432631805165 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.909482171036952 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7117841603587352 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.78049023778705 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1259846766337893 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.999995898953755 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.6293578188791762 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8642955602016484 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.543063935244218 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.016829975980471 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.247967336755659 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4707022315460312 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9999725492379092 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.891462563666622 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.782029023066117 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8840908744912737 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.97826079506309 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1240114139643036 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1344769541872646 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.363745684829396 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.351430286719678 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2682788228884405 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5690317235160769 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.8230451135566278 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6672013431285302 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.767951299393191 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2178852160530154 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.35935962331236 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7663544094060772 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.212509207061619 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0688410999746387 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.917207529758688 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.53402559790146 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8604916014562947 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.112368860935973 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.3497856929671155 }, { "season": 2014, "trainingEnd": 2013, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.6551711983153274 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.093841822058573 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.1755098264120813 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6033143773851704 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.21924021247272 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7841832526291654 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8852702433475972 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4565620969052917 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2019621723578777 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0140144876916533 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9909212155407077 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.262925384012668 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0581659970199633 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9228273551542705 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9654390129399862 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2178570133168005 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4690452882523797 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7919875354467365 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8951343538430536 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.103868845725958 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.944792817905107 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.472074229037447 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0432417585433558 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3407973758549496 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5547329990542087 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5556643304257904 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5639909362538502 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.990647640223097 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.941600713337748 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.069795243491956 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.189200778889108 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6167510351379792 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5629744697885943 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.127823793485461 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9989966122203766 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.206935798795987 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9412108753762918 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3092726621300164 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.6367948100496498 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2270192692261903 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5538400283746547 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0877389208583024 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.759879203393771 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.823941244765121 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.814514407456568 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5057184805551634 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.6302289189776092 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3868142173231015 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6552765430138665 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5963520298375586 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.6387086633850234 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0420467922560244 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9743923598390483 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2746425822425296 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7568062440927067 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2492218014306815 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5289462840723345 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.2751279755589344 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.8521443604491827 }, { "season": 2015, "trainingEnd": 2014, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.9394918798786804 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0442248696527705 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.1120242792989368 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5448356104871217 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.200561451472637 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.7970633352563046 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7740064293515316 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8738310228860526 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2678066661723064 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.154846930484225 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2431241200889134 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4981730113155862 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1039367488835303 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.340770191592288 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.304391706910664 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 4.063164643815665 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0423331420591544 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3954722903882617 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2980068044273736 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5174574192439265 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0390152399499977 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.618917384108665 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.187097974755892 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 4.024621557232477 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.067368078422186 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.298378870882535 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1807819039835916 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.72769344562118 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.056634003412915 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.709555515443531 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.896850630490216 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.567917396851909 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0373173033429928 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.6383380009332824 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.4957313262624115 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9884513951137106 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0644388584139395 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.933895977199563 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.418095454167239 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.406649415541018 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0135405369024473 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.225677522274022 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3376583663825663 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.561008061165604 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0365986909911946 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.670249546738811 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.557748082916404 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.9487529139425273 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.057030735405937 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.257684403373454 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2046311218573997 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.916130494374892 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1326597321797176 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.548722168619323 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.076950745507179 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.742770945469447 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.98955990468185 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.21828585627204 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.772632194271118 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.411860578957385 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.6245663101115397 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.6189963903428355 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7796820754142173 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2353477694278525 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.3071945419073194 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2318131742669762 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0953414554641485 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3023110261955404 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.674506722180196 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7246349435397876 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8191762848337794 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1700383714734985 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3529405002356154 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9012589938315275 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2039809059392055 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2787260326996797 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.987998558184171 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.991835166155292 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.039731313172101 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1730238416344414 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.7120054781903882 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7226176262346342 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.067045726122409 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2348825871896225 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.4936163371680342 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7045803136487874 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2250573430144636 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.954555080488816 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0635424166123164 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0425426071773276 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3585542501048555 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.3987878855732836 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1116211094091935 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1394245083454189 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3246919802086061 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4981868459600403 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5414229788894982 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0379678304656343 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.997871315300285 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.794375383097762 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9783500828242233 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0404501760536813 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.37963094283167 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9812173980672014 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8040738456301515 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.587349644423409 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5561394664053703 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.383497482326351 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.394575664702582 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.503962103168024 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.725215216639643 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.126411248910514 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5706836646519606 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.5512389293670509 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.073399158369851 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.282553583830651 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.640507861042893 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.227950375758081 }, { "season": 2017, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.8472840563935464 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.061907552690568 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.11446137869843 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.488184626013673 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1682880607920225 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2367887820183456 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.346152532557903 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.025140043820008 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.08085254746382 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9496209704304868 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8207574516058997 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9585344818550097 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9130122399717204 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.06041180279309743 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.09961084552727525 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.36732035577772293 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.7517265455865112 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.870667471874515 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8451401513006476 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8818470172605162 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7860971349030974 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.046712661189813605 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.07632660596601104 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.3340085205053976 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.795674530528065 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.4993259068196289 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.5184572537091325 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.0278183786811352 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5480468080351857 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.9895070380319312 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.6616593453668126 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.7256281601255374 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.9883113141317001 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1534746279820967 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0310794388067126 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2318018743590522 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4760223313595633 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.01895444062470693 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.05097839824994357 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.35240488666892705 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.9993834340315468 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8383210984419348 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7408098643766109 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.0811369895765441 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.529301469039885 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6330813873988755 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.5163589779304104 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.6807625658252008 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.99708271339709 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3047632466940828 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2358498303288714 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5295979824271526 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.734832492726369 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.13636178556805137 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.15592496881335358 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.4339055906453363 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 1.8556961328414059 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.182645697446177 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.3221424437862836 }, { "season": 2018, "trainingEnd": 2017, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.6344033063915187 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.075213916659895 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2461470553230791 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.028037044468922 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0677805868885284 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5611834842225034 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.645338632730703 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.18073891620695 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.098437662020717 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0264432063580191 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1368669611245685 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6903561177588105 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.840309596318038 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8273518418991883 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4950615070317703 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3324396820259041 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.172415908415289 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.283543014876894 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2102031150826407 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5931439344046654 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.681246395867704 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.755627612287582 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5829815818772068 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.397866024218155 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2678468137665027 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9413073536957628 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9501930690712348 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.074058380754767 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.844508135793166 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1814228364354935 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9781002926214684 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.0998778967286469 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.1302723367579355 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8763348422558981 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.009371892327728 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5251441241996273 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6104097064709015 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.6943762440724104 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3599701691750112 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3824751092029133 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.306143599814423 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.44371471972849846 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.5746969896170866 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2028638121312383 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5392666888297657 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2735727020683703 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0729605982085415 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.348494015130902 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.3489395797425274 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.7683903169021711 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.8598780353413586 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3222140923596937 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6436260192755054 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.4141638030384838 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.289095884272164 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.4178163287471175 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2018, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2971168393244223 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.388431549044854 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.6631157738954472 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.3227570498440033 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.71564186184643 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.6685984138580157 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7206142069367623 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.191421148969389 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.7916996408799086 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.7202866689747416 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.440333871375012 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.359014431404194 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8925085191690716 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.9435720443854474 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0066985565440283 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.191180162963512 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.15967476247585408 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.4212786578304909 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.9712442062945347 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.293154578585933 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.573837137457995 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.838503246200207 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1324262053549177 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.218202413080507 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.15943516949052702 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.31998065314150326 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.8679921746930199 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.24246474633146 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.160736757105335 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2375831238551744 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.266275074772969 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.240467337730566 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.2648207452803555 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.31500443703755987 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.7164831659360099 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2048382076845545 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8074474439422433 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.862887630741373 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2637408512830373 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4613791441574966 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6733373620002455 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1060357368332323 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0388404423827655 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8806545244301742 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0095062946353197 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2479254430753959 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0762731125150173 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.955746063034881 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.4255459261467485 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7273735438616137 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3200569747995856 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4399873659774793 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7529418729621713 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8842908155274096 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.314133683588266 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.989973364615715 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5817898974921223 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7365381444672883 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2535354094636995 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4351243610313444 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.6468708973423176 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.6835099883682605 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.0418515531957846 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8379616145219506 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7780351573967845 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.763932054704564 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.191868141892954 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2629193926062852 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3514424563140963 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9319740924792537 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.016258013462865 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.5119150533791914 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2908428851865525 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1433615549660194 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.891563620775799 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.304505447996884 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2717989749021883 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2133615420570854 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.38550007706259 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.5108720869531194 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3393415511261106 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0040758253605895 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.715655511939301 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.997555106754505 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.3700612555947793 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.288907150028363 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4837975482823476 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.697635048864489 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.525305379832774 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6866795355459903 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.705796411844356 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.19447384713245 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.223641351686969 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4918078622543587 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4997696875363027 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.683215023705254 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2124896420896354 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.440294369873126 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7132485395163983 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1126792840291357 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.92756325790327 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7979304641875675 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.453720235557474 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.5552365243863777 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.853734517669204 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.283891429972541 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8010812921115584 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.258203231813012 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7222855545213753 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.076779136961198 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.3992838757526957 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.138804068580783 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.744929537206765 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2187590498581327 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8047185848390845 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.6578252400250815 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.143930516797444 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1778495499795922 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4248730487022487 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.7406669536201687 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.3799768278255473 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.026567074734741 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.251572287025804 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.184544140625941 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0611714852133254 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2608757911530706 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8160730910423246 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8189623414543976 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8993246578238776 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.23414994056459 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1240309891310525 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0604069129405835 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9429824004371055 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1508147576462653 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.582793481075166 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.282441524584047 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8895811449109026 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.976439884284656 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.00105616481967 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.961160212651071 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.877433490041328 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.071355742075244 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.891182280054335 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1554684802324493 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8843395273910564 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0077635559060525 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.118337607645286 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.7428599108405027 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.005052721597897 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0355074647536444 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.3138128709946466 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.900779307192057 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.953379171455371 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.043439678525502 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.022341543827967 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.8651776173094916 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.3184618259263825 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0487082980917886 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.852269909470809 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2452200224239105 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7507140333939315 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0207778454725642 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.259585178168377 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.314424882032007 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.790936351040659 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.177389593475699 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.021349382355529 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.7560368744617367 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.2137769335881563 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9456255998524568 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1374118044512773 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0737511316444466 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9769231370143623 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.155354767108063 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.172787141297841 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.3919995881948215 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.011245004319858 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.980611115790242 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.1377801730211394 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.8205053371340303 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.965150758975684 } ], "featureAblations": [ { "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.010111915815636264, "logLossCi95": [ -0.05151501247820794, 0.0700088591676975 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.04274981102786333, 0.07469273151772354 ], "brierDifference": -0.005215396038984031, "brierCi95": [ -0.03254645633888309, 0.018934371852642243 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.02463302941144773, 0.019986744982664888 ], "group": "adjusted_efficiency", "name": "Adjusted offense and defense", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency" }, { "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.03504986632814094, "logLossCi95": [ -0.16425246001772076, 0.21670765869500114 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.04336059993473692, 0.12231845645637272 ], "brierDifference": -0.001857750082840189, "brierCi95": [ -0.08441310126948082, 0.07868997210201627 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.04093566931491814, 0.034632128878625906 ], "group": "prior_roster", "name": "Previous season and roster continuity", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_prior_roster" }, { "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.1304612948978967, "logLossCi95": [ -0.20138678143392436, 0.49141246901318625 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.01342211390483596, 0.29265857188682876 ], "brierDifference": 0.016489651495185616, "brierCi95": [ -0.10220459203350134, 0.1509348537509677 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.05657825344299764, 0.08810831106434132 ], "group": "player_availability", "name": "Player box production and recent rotation", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_player_availability" }, { "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.04897372113543936, "logLossCi95": [ -0.2126062699701115, 0.25538376591824447 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.19558642982885732, 0.21108181770263312 ], "brierDifference": 0.025184553853744074, "brierCi95": [ -0.06195423381306927, 0.10262034264058877 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.06449503704273873, 0.10162810993893741 ], "group": "four_factors", "name": "Shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_four_factors" }, { "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.01508392327126947, "logLossCi95": [ -0.09097533157889463, 0.11373100996709513 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.11364981301939922, 0.12609466811905595 ], "brierDifference": 0.026077752078653735, "brierCi95": [ -0.010041344648890884, 0.0653429100456831 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.01980564955470354, 0.07915177630120204 ], "group": "pace_shooting", "name": "Pace and three-point profile", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_pace_shooting" } ] }, { "id": "01-01", "label": "January 1", "status": "insufficient_data", "reason": "Only 14 verified historical snapshots; the fixed protocol requires at least 15 before fitting this experiment.", "coverage": { "trainingSeasons": 14, "testSeasons": 0 }, "inputHash": "0dbaf8fb92b47969b2eeba030fa1c62bdb98dd6b5c490c58ab166c1112dc4fce" }, { "id": "02-01", "label": "February 1", "status": "available", "coverage": { "trainingSeasons": 16, "testSeasons": 6, "firstTest": 2016, "lastTest": 2026, "testYears": [ 2016, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2026 ], "excluded": [ { "season": 1995, "reason": "Previous-season team box-score coverage below95% for at least one team.", "priorTeamCoverage": { "ATL": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHH": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 0.9878048780487805, "DAL": 0.9390243902439024, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NJN": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "SEA": 1.0, "UTA": 0.9634146341463414, "WSB": 0.9878048780487805 } }, { "season": 1996, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1996-1995-11-03-POR-VAN", "1996-1995-11-05-VAN-MIN", "1996-1995-11-07-DAL-VAN", "1996-1995-11-08-SAS-VAN", "1996-1995-11-10-VAN-LAC", "1996-1995-11-11-SEA-VAN", "1996-1995-11-13-VAN-DAL", "1996-1995-11-16-LAC-VAN", "1996-1995-11-17-VAN-LAL", "1996-1995-11-19-NYK-VAN", "1996-1995-11-22-ORL-VAN", "1996-1995-11-24-CHH-VAN", "1996-1995-11-25-MIA-VAN", "1996-1995-11-28-MIN-VAN", "1996-1995-11-30-VAN-CHI", "1996-1995-12-01-LAL-VAN", "1996-1995-12-03-VAN-MIL", "1996-1995-12-05-PHX-VAN", "1996-1995-12-07-VAN-DET", "1996-1995-12-10-VAN-TOR", "1996-1995-12-13-VAN-HOU", "1996-1995-12-15-VAN-POR", "1996-1995-12-16-VAN-GSW", "1996-1995-12-18-SAC-VAN", "1996-1995-12-19-VAN-SEA", "1996-1995-12-21-SEA-VAN", "1996-1995-12-22-VAN-PHX", "1996-1995-12-26-HOU-VAN", "1996-1995-12-28-DAL-VAN", "1996-1995-12-30-VAN-BOS", "1996-1996-01-05-VAN-PHI", "1996-1996-01-07-VAN-LAC", "1996-1996-01-09-GSW-VAN", "1996-1996-01-10-VAN-DEN", "1996-1996-01-12-VAN-GSW", "1996-1996-01-13-VAN-MIA", "1996-1996-01-18-VAN-CLE", "1996-1996-01-20-VAN-NYK", "1996-1996-01-22-MIL-VAN", "1996-1996-01-24-CHI-VAN", "1996-1996-01-25-TOR-VAN", "1996-1996-01-27-WSB-VAN", "1996-1996-01-29-PHI-VAN", "1996-1996-01-31-BOS-VAN" ] }, { "season": 1997, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1997-1996-11-08-CLE-VAN", "1997-1996-11-15-UTA-VAN" ] }, { "season": 1998, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1998-1997-11-01-UTA-DEN", "1998-1997-12-10-CLE-DEN" ] }, { "season": 1999, "reason": "At least one league team has no games before the matched calendar cutoff." }, { "season": 2000, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2000-1999-11-02-CHH-ORL", "2000-1999-11-20-WAS-LAC", "2000-2000-01-10-CLE-LAC", "2000-2000-01-15-UTA-LAC" ] }, { "season": 2002, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2002-2001-11-30-PHX-UTA", "2002-2001-12-08-MEM-PHI", "2002-2001-12-22-SEA-DET", "2002-2002-01-12-WAS-MIN", "2002-2002-01-26-CHH-HOU" ] }, { "season": 2003, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2003-2002-10-29-LAL-SAS", "2003-2002-11-16-GSW-ORL", "2003-2002-11-16-MIL-BOS", "2003-2002-12-06-PHX-IND", "2003-2002-12-06-TOR-CHI", "2003-2002-12-31-HOU-MIL" ] }, { "season": 2013, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2013-2012-12-25-MIA-OKC", "2013-2013-01-29-CLE-GSW", "2013-2013-01-29-DET-MIL", "2013-2013-01-29-LAL-NOP", "2013-2013-01-29-POR-DAL" ] }, { "season": 2014, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2014-2013-11-27-CHA-IND" ] }, { "season": 2015, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2015-2014-12-12-CHI-POR" ] }, { "season": 2017, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2017-2017-01-20-LAL-IND", "2017-2017-01-29-ATL-NYK" ] }, { "season": 2018, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2018-2017-12-31-BOS-BKN" ] }, { "season": 2019, "reason": "Per-team player coverage below80% at cutoff or90% in the previous season.", "currentPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 0.982444733420026, "priorPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 1.0, "proxy": "(PTS+ORB+DRB+AST+STL+BLK-missedFG-missedFT-TOV) per36; previous season weight0.5, current weight1, 300-minute prior-season league shrinkage; last5-game minute weights.", "currentPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 0.9811320754716981, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 0.9803921568627451, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 0.9803921568627451, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 0.98, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 0.9807692307692307, "PHI": 0.8846153846153846, "PHX": 0.6981132075471698, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 }, "priorPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 0.9878048780487805, "BOS": 0.9878048780487805, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 } }, { "season": 2020, "reason": "Excluded under existing pandemic-season protocol." }, { "season": 2025, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2025-2024-10-25-POR-NOP" ] } ] }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666656, "topPickAccuracy": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.5174496247835525, "brier": 0.9804489861310506, "topPickAccuracy": 0.16666666666666666 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.316001307974378, "brier": 0.9263757718037665, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.3786274711846427, "brier": 0.9519642945778205, "topPickAccuracy": 0.16666666666666666 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.4610441749472916, "brier": 0.9334320626457479, "topPickAccuracy": 0.16666666666666666 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.319854362269144, "brier": 0.9147360644875072, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.355747232184895, "brier": 0.9152757307573339, "topPickAccuracy": 0.16666666666666666 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.9291307164775542, "brier": 0.811958746941877, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.415129801887642, "brier": 0.9317936032715238, "topPickAccuracy": 0.16666666666666666 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.9385985600991118, "brier": 0.8139530894673376, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.44813941716701, "brier": 0.9030674411095254, "topPickAccuracy": 0.16666666666666666 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.8288540327057534, "brier": 0.8377295607575602, "topPickAccuracy": 0.16666666666666666 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.148374922392275, "brier": 0.8781250179996568, "topPickAccuracy": 0.16666666666666666 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.1610093085689246, "brier": 0.8527887790806665, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.3175652894050724, "brier": 0.8805312532008117, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.04334835788294, "brier": 0.8895026150768747, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.277141916238594, "brier": 0.8569670225458621, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.1294361112135505, "brier": 0.8577374595878342, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 2.930610684848228, "brier": 1.0606179486831773, "topPickAccuracy": 0.0 } }, "comparisons": [ { "model": "uniform", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 1.0225699104775128, "logLossCi95": [ 0.33784868910991045, 1.7509624581637062 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ 0.14305748775493324, 1.9020823332000922 ], "brierDifference": 0.014702372088845292, "brierCi95": [ -0.2012272954542723, 0.24609797020484256 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.24061420010564785, 0.27001894428333845 ] }, { "model": "record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.13882215359891004, "logLossCi95": [ -0.19096396943090563, 0.5489258137179166 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.06892497847024197, 0.3475649422357652 ], "brierDifference": 0.02848469155323033, "brierCi95": [ -0.06250026567869547, 0.13343340448037472 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.03546740443893861, 0.1063164365172125 ] }, { "model": "strength", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.06262616321026482, "logLossCi95": [ -0.5425507342469348, 0.2976101209877578 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.29826089701374614, 0.1646756599246514 ], "brierDifference": -0.025588522774053712, "brierCi95": [ -0.12256541228057478, 0.06716704060750783 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.11374472838519874, 0.05272560661291283 ] }, { "model": "adv_record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.08241670376264894, "logLossCi95": [ -0.25581498949812975, 0.3844132225258828 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.09194961007236886, 0.2720649385092249 ], "brierDifference": -0.018532231932072735, "brierCi95": [ -0.11961527286203578, 0.08879155952628459 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.11283232305361983, 0.07576785918947436 ] }, { "model": "adv_strength", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.05877310891549884, "logLossCi95": [ -0.5047386511469968, 0.2609649164418929 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.33949236535087896, 0.22194614751988126 ], "brierDifference": -0.03722823009031322, "brierCi95": [ -0.12425345422627088, 0.03540897634657442 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.11838710325932904, 0.02766634509002569 ] }, { "model": "adv_strength_record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.022880238999747744, "logLossCi95": [ -0.21322446779430101, 0.15856506249837257 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.2720397450852645, 0.22627926708576904 ], "brierDifference": -0.03668856382048646, "brierCi95": [ -0.09398090323024581, 0.0320328014471497 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.10681766210127568, 0.03344053446030276 ] }, { "model": "adv_full", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.44949675470708844, "logLossCi95": [ -1.0620841171823507, 0.09824654801038439 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -1.0703851368973856, 0.17139162748320871 ], "brierDifference": -0.14000554763594342, "brierCi95": [ -0.2815833436809215, -0.015337319359561377 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.29033536045312464, 0.010324265181237765 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.03650233070299924, "logLossCi95": [ -0.11311059251239412, 0.17468822967839912 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.11314032562101624, 0.18614498702701474 ], "brierDifference": -0.02017069130629655, "brierCi95": [ -0.058951967020771344, 0.023233184607425746 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.05586189967179241, 0.015520517059199304 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.44002891108553105, "logLossCi95": [ -1.0879611462405094, 0.14350272459362504 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -1.1083235913679255, 0.2282657691968634 ], "brierDifference": -0.13801120511048273, "brierCi95": [ -0.2973465632635279, 0.010733626355392203 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.3104968672040726, 0.03447445698310708 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.06951194598236754, "logLossCi95": [ -0.4550999033078893, 0.5758074356773016 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.5588241214646993, 0.6978480134294344 ], "brierDifference": -0.04889685346829504, "brierCi95": [ -0.18730866437371518, 0.0962107698553758 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.2306618562114792, 0.13286814927488913 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.549773438478889, "logLossCi95": [ -1.1364336289275803, -0.008327123808605045 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -1.1495221192467462, 0.049975242288968026 ], "brierDifference": -0.11423473382026006, "brierCi95": [ -0.26457034681931146, 0.036100879178791324 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.2897991163436696, 0.06132964870314948 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.23025254879236742, "logLossCi95": [ -0.8576814023564469, 0.43683844917843384 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.6201781182409083, 0.15967302065617348 ], "brierDifference": -0.0738392765781635, "brierCi95": [ -0.27906779915787555, 0.1366830146289771 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.19458543914522633, 0.02592722156754994 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.21761816261571787, "logLossCi95": [ -0.758212814788914, 0.3233028948990126 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.8092819517352373, 0.37404562650380163 ], "brierDifference": -0.09917551549715392, "brierCi95": [ -0.20398269601592814, 0.014014072334536795 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.22405641402819257, 0.025705383033884737 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.06106218177957031, "logLossCi95": [ -0.5240795841550041, 0.3945384787096018 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.629501221811401, 0.5073768582522603 ], "brierDifference": -0.0714330413770086, "brierCi95": [ -0.2176191454927493, 0.09394621332958515 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.24539280425082946, 0.10252672149681229 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.3352791133017025, "logLossCi95": [ -1.0823230558688801, 0.43362668985982683 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.9007116935468463, 0.16011367280481928 ], "brierDifference": -0.062461679500945645, "brierCi95": [ -0.310118336595044, 0.18519497759315273 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.19349517518897996, 0.006464856883701557 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.10148555494604831, "logLossCi95": [ -0.8136097006629472, 0.7696961310747716 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.791757256138391, 0.37948142563948944 ], "brierDifference": -0.09499727203195829, "brierCi95": [ -0.3705126144561463, 0.19219570568291258 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.30979744337117465, 0.06213965657573093 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.249191359971092, "logLossCi95": [ -0.9087021920173134, 0.3958201204953185 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.8727891526976731, 0.374406432755489 ], "brierDifference": -0.09422683498998623, "brierCi95": [ -0.26270302599349776, 0.07650819183408065 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.2649618618140531, 0.07650819183408065 ] }, { "model": "adv_selected", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.5519832136635856, "logLossCi95": [ -0.003275096330103644, 1.1781336316956692 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ 0.19032201482994515, 0.9500645149490952 ], "brierDifference": 0.10865365410535703, "brierCi95": [ 0.002106319802163248, 0.22383029615234773 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ 0.01540366111344534, 0.1985438706728493 ] } ], "seasons": [ { "season": 2016, "champion": "CLE", "cutoffDate": "2016-02-01", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.8495867240505464 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.0084147670707635, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.8640079440185189 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2293319542157226, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.9743156521530836, "record": 0.8020477873724983 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1685853230938483, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.22589866773441242, "record": 0.2472890301150429, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.10661915095812403, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2596546175017123, "prior_net_rating": 0.309119769777031, "retained_minutes_share": 0.08232431932815137, "rotation_box_production": 0.08564943127272905, "star_box_production": 0.3137087693136355, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08637543238644875, "efg_pct": 0.15397130436497802, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15476279872503373, "turnover_rate": -0.062440315099827115, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10489565755924762, "oreb_pct": 0.18631619588670226, "dreb_pct": 0.09293856906538582, "ft_rate": 0.11261195323385347, "opp_ft_rate": -0.19719247528838188, "pace": -0.03179052337831695, "three_attempt_rate": 0.03291553208606289, "three_pct": -0.034784572457697685, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.2332986710989048, "opp_three_pct": -0.13878881526007855 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6061315663950713, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4650641824479206, "record": 0.6846381891987006, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.43350516784081655, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.5872418305202144 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1611123250152326, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.27475715760025665, "record": 0.2775856823794308, "prior_net_rating": 0.3162492810786751, "retained_minutes_share": 0.08666917816657306, "rotation_box_production": 0.08479648349354488, "star_box_production": 0.32631940371043827, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.08869056983895371, "efg_pct": 0.15868370073371393, "opp_efg_pct": -0.22109107295957425, "turnover_rate": -0.044962305217506236, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.15819814291919207, "oreb_pct": 0.18758849077744733, "dreb_pct": 0.12179345304969018, "ft_rate": 0.11725889068672245, "opp_ft_rate": -0.20550454779588287, "pace": -0.0408024775370042, "three_attempt_rate": 0.03135402493558237, "three_pct": -0.028903028273160585, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.21479720366863916, "opp_three_pct": -0.1541973049270227 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6692860211100626, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4529766177234889, "record": 0.4221217993828209, "prior_net_rating": 0.37472479863207986, "retained_minutes_share": 0.07390782005549831 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5750698547793434, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.24739809017359501, "record": 0.2684433170717682, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.12350927807830892, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.268597264780561, "rotation_box_production": 0.13288933485876722, "star_box_production": 0.3323703645284448, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.09988038408994548, "efg_pct": 0.16975645229165262, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14783918089503884, "turnover_rate": -0.06097657317910184, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09940672040621262, "oreb_pct": 0.18724374731902135, "dreb_pct": 0.1309392912212829, "ft_rate": 0.1085676215196088, "opp_ft_rate": -0.20724826236717786, "pace": -0.03960194536283677, "three_attempt_rate": 0.02533215721943685, "three_pct": -0.020213873707061028, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.19574068910649348, "opp_three_pct": -0.12311019253745735 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.566393925017915, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.7873613293084126, "record": 0.7111023541068748, "rotation_box_production": -0.04824732577171092, "star_box_production": 0.5523902176360158, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.13341039614537317 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.248137437033149, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2696298656585688, "record": 0.28483803610347946, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.14768923872976444, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.27060585264717485, "prior_net_rating": 0.36152881267973147, "retained_minutes_share": 0.0627223348141715, "efg_pct": 0.2090903114437784, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17557198908295785, "turnover_rate": -0.07495388808124555, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08800065039067197, "oreb_pct": 0.17553660184026568, "dreb_pct": 0.11587748955596185, "ft_rate": 0.11824757215053683, "opp_ft_rate": -0.188156880823693, "pace": 0.0037803245524648775, "three_attempt_rate": 0.026767988725096958, "three_pct": -0.022042128013424898, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.23698012788434827, "opp_three_pct": -0.13057758976335726 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.7197219519087357, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3635812848791764, "record": 0.3621142069683527, "efg_pct": 0.2651709221940366, "opp_efg_pct": -0.24455322650019487, "turnover_rate": -0.06039294309251485, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14461355082887237, "oreb_pct": 0.17027856540513905, "dreb_pct": 0.14831506983702755, "ft_rate": 0.13840609054379474, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1983307510500976 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6631052077836017, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4210456730820865, "record": 0.6839450079403424, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.341208080229655, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.607351652859592, "prior_net_rating": 0.8471015670541086, "retained_minutes_share": 0.22404728564075022, "rotation_box_production": -0.08923788711776756, "star_box_production": 0.5465692707784586, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10775495555223366, "pace": -0.15226149570182282, "three_attempt_rate": 0.2257329056325278, "three_pct": -0.48856484772561193, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.69414900337479, "opp_three_pct": -0.3107310695148097 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.416229794251398, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.6796130998801317, "record": 1.0138346121638149, "pace": -0.1260918866596525, "three_attempt_rate": 0.08918134207011555, "three_pct": -0.5069525629343906, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.5898743131691344, "opp_three_pct": -0.001000071230232076 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.3140508036379415, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21466473161407, "record": 0.24157643049151203, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.11001909841106797, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.24338370719712968, "prior_net_rating": 0.27285601821804756, "retained_minutes_share": 0.06076013379040883, "rotation_box_production": 0.08675570647914625, "star_box_production": 0.3096695949881943, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.09625313184617693, "efg_pct": 0.15461896254393342, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1467412810228685, "turnover_rate": -0.047796687042253004, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13031889398892105, "oreb_pct": 0.1856248656002467, "dreb_pct": 0.05748707383377642, "ft_rate": 0.138155418409409, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17689622907449937 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5985364986452195, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 } } }, "selection": { "id": "record", "ridge": null, "validationLogLoss": 1.834782921091616, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2012 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666655, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.836178660535137, "brier": 1.270264679036161, "championProbability": 0.05864935739585219, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 3.6221465332798903, "brier": 1.3079340086443798, "championProbability": 0.026725248244096094, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.1941938647985366, "brier": 1.2836790850170008, "championProbability": 0.040999563248977244, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.6266782952207306, "brier": 1.1309689285639277, "championProbability": 0.07231828369880172, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 3.3671619285544656, "brier": 1.242081875646263, "championProbability": 0.034487376220593294, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.944996644379338, "brier": 1.1633201187005182, "championProbability": 0.052602236329128756, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.8053688174436586, "brier": 1.1300174651726864, "championProbability": 0.06048445933466293, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 3.2010383751332747, "brier": 1.2410580411059562, "championProbability": 0.0407198994871446, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.7625923192777897, "brier": 1.1168156799936944, "championProbability": 0.06312790836886631, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.695238134056151, "brier": 1.0029147886128176, "championProbability": 0.06752629954782942, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.7752275218397497, "brier": 1.0792585803838266, "championProbability": 0.062335292435704515, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.059321551799665, "brier": 1.2628223977747068, "championProbability": 0.04691951688588372, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.8154038067544906, "brier": 1.0991440001386896, "championProbability": 0.05988053369343029, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.8128068656587732, "brier": 1.0275125890965124, "championProbability": 0.06003624200736255, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.2234359899686558, "brier": 1.1504469769950816, "championProbability": 0.10823656940390507, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.1203439700237534, "brier": 0.9411996950126543, "championProbability": 0.11999034832932609, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.0005697295863407, "brier": 1.1407459030601195, "championProbability": 0.04975871128070041, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 2.836178660535137, "brier": 1.270264679036161, "championProbability": 0.05864935739585219, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005117828011500055, "strength": 0.004625987870251714, "strength_record": 0.004861976267448497, "adv_record": 0.00983044774274622, "adv_strength": 0.00738033328385153, "adv_strength_record": 0.009889889484303591, "adv_full": 0.01624564271976544, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007259254470778127, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01817708613325166, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03194771362983696, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012584936511990781, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008548562693593147, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015992609227802036, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016278699959190925, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.020237445392845898, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.013437029330009365, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01686005067767226, "adv_selected": 0.005117828011500055 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00010331223746804581, "strength": 0.00014184204579975867, "strength_record": 0.00011515856120080064, "adv_record": 0.0004033566260666673, "adv_strength": 0.0003449283154517924, "adv_strength_record": 0.0004993634471667008, "adv_full": 0.0013503518174297294, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00021528272243583518, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0019451492752502763, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0031670662712198054, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0018678878822046062, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005286004186551643, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001372015636761134, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0030139496465250095, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0001220925227336192, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003381371438776945, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0012649338573950397, "adv_selected": 0.00010331223746804581 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005117828011500055, "strength": 0.011931986095459379, "strength_record": 0.007721435988097934, "adv_record": 0.00983044774274622, "adv_strength": 0.01697502712702547, "adv_strength_record": 0.015285153722835136, "adv_full": 0.011586136676899809, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013601837070639769, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01152728697315474, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02413206235253737, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012522765194755132, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.007562564794019072, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015770329734507912, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018756216253897028, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.008632863584774553, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.021473393644900456, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011501628077072754, "adv_selected": 0.005117828011500055 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0020160625521073103, "strength": 0.002945581461020616, "strength_record": 0.002395820263662192, "adv_record": 0.004586942329514317, "adv_strength": 0.004963106986583651, "adv_strength_record": 0.00577515168759566, "adv_full": 0.003345469463746906, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003810187410428883, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0034873129521756484, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010350355180431968, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004943438616571566, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014410417644734276, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008834553614839716, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014657504640276951, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0009345451613438452, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.011766762367852866, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002477742900144535, "adv_selected": 0.0020160625521073103 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006152103268754383, "strength": 0.003076294412097659, "strength_record": 0.004386733515194798, "adv_record": 0.011428328585150275, "adv_strength": 0.0051561990592523975, "adv_strength_record": 0.008752796874479971, "adv_full": 0.017952116363407575, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006396181359747323, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018849809586307907, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.026044774991017136, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.015940418369056675, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010457122410277632, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015214258550883939, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01691413871120988, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006723476136870443, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0036802445573651124, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.018254716756519282, "adv_selected": 0.006152103268754383 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05864935739585219, "strength": 0.026725248244096094, "strength_record": 0.040999563248977244, "adv_record": 0.07231828369880172, "adv_strength": 0.034487376220593294, "adv_strength_record": 0.052602236329128756, "adv_full": 0.06048445933466293, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0407198994871446, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06312790836886631, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06752629954782942, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.062335292435704515, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04691951688588372, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.05988053369343029, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06003624200736255, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.10823656940390507, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.11999034832932609, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04975871128070041, "adv_selected": 0.05864935739585219 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005749716448365764, "strength": 0.002449475671031161, "strength_record": 0.003788486002093655, "adv_record": 0.010812963995094965, "adv_strength": 0.004220305855425929, "adv_strength_record": 0.007695834665796054, "adv_full": 0.00876430978737732, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004779105929422255, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009812213388208695, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02135323967341397, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008146139211220116, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0034928790212394316, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015300577414029275, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01372441801523125, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011750190269909009, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.018369085373177607, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005646191735303118, "adv_selected": 0.005749716448365764 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0005223724443086925, "strength": 0.0006349975572380349, "strength_record": 0.0005588473214951119, "adv_record": 0.0015191431375792103, "adv_strength": 0.0012881266457456186, "adv_strength_record": 0.0017670792994006405, "adv_full": 0.0022460340928314795, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008675813455814059, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002907635657896756, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0065679673551341106, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00302231803826896, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0015765600777666396, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0023869954862640996, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005532458431513817, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0003138305921486738, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012849270120579388, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0027155214695684, "adv_selected": 0.0005223724443086925 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003460297987274528, "strength": 0.0048408773057494504, "strength_record": 0.00405057346233006, "adv_record": 0.007136628884788208, "adv_strength": 0.007680869541336471, "adv_strength_record": 0.0087890496853218, "adv_full": 0.01138259378463111, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006296483521870886, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012511836411168875, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014935496846204046, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01765892604639351, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008288940296811848, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011737910212558886, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.028139192385629327, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015182687976201936, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005696019389436622, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.015766049533866372, "adv_selected": 0.003460297987274528 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.5860082430561294, "strength": 0.419046417667747, "strength_record": 0.5239371144840506, "adv_record": 0.4755613285603578, "adv_strength": 0.3876312865886107, "adv_strength_record": 0.42162992299094, "adv_full": 0.446777382271751, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.35049384497209707, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.452464699827618, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.3054452197196738, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.36046104963625114, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.5645082603787563, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.37065579530929293, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.25971318610026817, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.5748982117194152, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.2396453040862286, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.42903144531990284, "adv_selected": 0.5860082430561294 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0026412453864183985, "strength": 0.0012945254353848835, "strength_record": 0.0018472170596951973, "adv_record": 0.005721477529595788, "adv_strength": 0.002409246468304166, "adv_strength_record": 0.004356372862815901, "adv_full": 0.01295588180151451, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0019098883798723777, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01842478335877412, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018718392471458494, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010455583401575682, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006364694246220192, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01022298444473942, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012486093666227353, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00868386888892588, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005499129035646008, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013526692422978541, "adv_selected": 0.0026412453864183985 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003994934315420686, "strength": 0.008757363277613272, "strength_record": 0.005832278977337052, "adv_record": 0.008026919733024164, "adv_strength": 0.012933618501066328, "adv_strength_record": 0.012144327394821288, "adv_full": 0.0134478389590247, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011191305464963863, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012889253841940597, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019623016471538864, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01649322772674733, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005397829327169529, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019907273034352784, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.022579162230443903, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0057068019597430256, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.019044580409108378, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011670401474567164, "adv_selected": 0.003994934315420686 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.022921695604717567, "strength": 0.01222030923408896, "strength_record": 0.01711678101270105, "adv_record": 0.033526446968225626, "adv_strength": 0.017335074099803276, "adv_strength_record": 0.026307639368854982, "adv_full": 0.025132472777610156, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018610294574108406, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.027095555083985274, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05138206679157919, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.021213736473962155, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0262276358232654, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02883888838980019, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03205359509676513, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.027299558089648436, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02526768586279626, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02954110171334802, "adv_selected": 0.022921695604717567 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 4.1687688185601606e-05, "strength": 4.092457509169994e-05, "strength_record": 3.904560767012138e-05, "adv_record": 0.00019194635762049392, "adv_strength": 0.00011566494580109156, "adv_strength_record": 0.0002044231376451646, "adv_full": 0.00030902971748315367, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 7.749778525231922e-05, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004577256907320874, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001568370851357182, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0004482649140788224, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00013046669305795237, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0004012894033614958, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.001061397724407553, "adv_without_four_factors": 2.170078108438581e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 8.642220322118789e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00031654790972824985, "adv_selected": 4.1687688185601606e-05 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0077808625977360164, "strength": 0.0012875366568479883, "strength_record": 0.003242255750733745, "adv_record": 0.01384993909646855, "adv_strength": 0.002397809119365553, "adv_strength_record": 0.006375804113659025, "adv_full": 0.008751450433832016, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0035105406376035523, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0108774147258731, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.021728679531382543, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006793669888039852, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0041051232972496975, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010889461611723378, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009244120931456453, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.016430424741325163, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.023778248700542372, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006424014127793918, "adv_selected": 0.0077808625977360164 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005939132269591806, "strength": 0.0025796138534496037, "strength_record": 0.003951889431159208, "adv_record": 0.011103577978619621, "adv_strength": 0.004416784918609735, "adv_strength_record": 0.007972236736070353, "adv_full": 0.007347410576672248, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0055670055196624475, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008539733967405112, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012941399386563501, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011328173700867552, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0036279418334096945, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011633345501907684, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02540861810755635, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0018563971426339729, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010466929360115292, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0066352868080661815, "adv_selected": 0.005939132269591806 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008029902415479719, "strength": 0.00041686164078918, "strength_record": 0.0005698434538854122, "adv_record": 0.002159687987076694, "adv_strength": 0.0008897879265984328, "adv_strength_record": 0.0016964034613071882, "adv_full": 0.0030726823884395854, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006943554916389575, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004607058688809661, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008347115711702983, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0031115469064952298, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001960956243512009, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0025995916912907586, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004450021021648058, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0007616480602459219, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0015104962541500247, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0032674973036981797, "adv_selected": 0.0008029902415479719 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00016415178974088894, "strength": 0.00046069786778443853, "strength_record": 0.000260767216305203, "adv_record": 0.0005891620534820728, "adv_strength": 0.0009715349297966977, "adv_strength_record": 0.0010112138328503264, "adv_full": 0.002636531514710657, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000482744746584074, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003763367130398872, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003301227349106717, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0048008155582984924, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0015396159212693597, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0017515583699786734, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004989712902933678, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00023217166227601412, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0009597479103842902, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0027058482841014865, "adv_selected": 0.00016415178974088894 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0006453331512903347, "strength": 0.0010651233979602338, "strength_record": 0.0008034844354977596, "adv_record": 0.0018059982561827186, "adv_strength": 0.0020296291800938416, "adv_strength_record": 0.0024156912541031623, "adv_full": 0.004181802060400877, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0011552347118119607, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005468863997577622, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010707724894358854, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004557672887880785, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0034290119117935296, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0038141544729215445, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005888991321338021, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0012224259115838892, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0014983744621323682, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003996227444068565, "adv_selected": 0.0006453331512903347 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0015724745816422666, "strength": 0.0012035869277964625, "strength_record": 0.0013590851825294149, "adv_record": 0.0037429769829959245, "adv_strength": 0.002259822206152651, "adv_strength_record": 0.003504895684530586, "adv_full": 0.0009968870115534506, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001778202856177702, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012338009308233437, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004595631875222232, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0023660794406111063, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0019511505351678517, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0014517901716209936, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006416071991391843, "adv_without_four_factors": 6.525162114361303e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0018036546860010797, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0012750535628528515, "adv_selected": 0.0015724745816422666 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.055371036720040026, "strength": 0.04097776007201107, "strength_record": 0.04901480675823159, "adv_record": 0.06899341897428324, "adv_strength": 0.050215093802170555, "adv_strength_record": 0.06272367444647145, "adv_full": 0.085627442554779, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.042857556760484, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09514066874450458, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06139187495375133, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1083445216950741, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.09299224129406378, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.055606270724794876, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08762719661391809, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03250983960012382, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08047955699185098, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10799167240097886, "adv_selected": 0.055371036720040026 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0015031379552630194, "strength": 0.0012063293268218293, "strength_record": 0.0013288721431772182, "adv_record": 0.003607379630366676, "adv_strength": 0.0022643478361683896, "adv_strength_record": 0.0034528689887244387, "adv_full": 0.0045366848662616935, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002043089118498418, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005524455564832899, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007830752697699289, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006863493054791578, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0032020255306970673, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0043095151429575025, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007583116047333473, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013756335205293757, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004309915567749249, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003368776403846934, "adv_selected": 0.0015031379552630194 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 2.676874581930663e-05, "strength": 4.7545895217463716e-05, "strength_record": 3.332118543696655e-05, "adv_record": 0.00013358712764787765, "adv_strength": 0.00013196324477230992, "adv_strength_record": 0.00018715191148712076, "adv_full": 0.00019151059210584175, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 9.473330770240017e-05, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00028791803659328457, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001352781229443722, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0003115313273694767, "adv_add_player_availability": 9.942630026223208e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00029001829281116904, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.001369712957927301, "adv_without_four_factors": 4.446329135977368e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 2.156151128840904e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0003109636949092574, "adv_selected": 2.676874581930663e-05 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00016415178974088894, "strength": 0.00025945550228055364, "strength_record": 0.00019702740218944858, "adv_record": 0.0005891620534820728, "adv_strength": 0.0005864965896638106, "adv_strength_record": 0.0007767316663276596, "adv_full": 0.0007088151315898901, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003613948529517732, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009739990908160487, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005063110707900519, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007736986026606321, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00038054280845184024, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0012810933110064297, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0025827602458613937, "adv_without_four_factors": 6.429307127526628e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00023449532552118782, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0008643883134763319, "adv_selected": 0.00016415178974088894 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0017759984815783128, "strength": 0.001968228809379297, "strength_record": 0.0018415021295392507, "adv_record": 0.00413493926862402, "adv_strength": 0.0034820640444840453, "adv_strength_record": 0.004587478478807893, "adv_full": 0.004567200937762398, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0023934639985891404, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005758465240537795, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01752780167184506, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004567429024327474, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0031241382532597455, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006259505639441978, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008537999024095308, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001822363253026382, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003644275766631291, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004952798650619668, "adv_selected": 0.0017759984815783128 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0010057885125149108, "strength": 0.0015101521768355224, "strength_record": 0.001201763161672874, "adv_record": 0.002596648562837115, "adv_strength": 0.002758660648665393, "adv_strength_record": 0.0033196343337888344, "adv_full": 0.010986721018870445, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0018150698702033483, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013503742791798305, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008208502929881022, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.017000307320174757, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006141830594674036, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007452618679252015, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01070951528510826, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002640552865528705, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005379237813647058, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008276038468840318, "adv_selected": 0.0010057885125149108 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.1899844100472546, "strength": 0.4273924561968483, "strength_record": 0.2934521816590611, "adv_record": 0.18920343051438326, "adv_strength": 0.3944097131416973, "adv_strength_record": 0.28529350295108286, "adv_full": 0.19234063602355617, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.44121564113713163, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.14576088382284516, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.16186145040766095, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.23340843295493022, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.15976750941811763, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.26510589423232933, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.24690497787764892, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.14677059811335996, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.3095136746175654, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.19583793031393068, "adv_selected": 0.1899844100472546 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02754950524224948, "strength": 0.015845029576939187, "strength_record": 0.02139321666962766, "adv_record": 0.03897076789019905, "adv_strength": 0.021781690739267338, "adv_strength_record": 0.031641318093529144, "adv_full": 0.03300238343939325, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02390783746600216, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.034001506050459616, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04359594760772012, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03780211286382637, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.020108595573513074, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03953951252548557, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05205583279308264, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.016818095087811572, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0640811190285819, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03413171033696618, "adv_selected": 0.02754950524224948 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0015031379552630194, "strength": 0.004046674092651355, "strength_record": 0.002399275900740609, "adv_record": 0.003607379630366676, "adv_strength": 0.006561421288101069, "adv_strength_record": 0.006021376905358482, "adv_full": 0.00644020852973263, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004231565241223423, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007421586736690782, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01660636894436326, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0069534637956695546, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0039225530114145556, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007924658144120286, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01344831277838322, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0019769281563755785, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005221327387318321, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00790317899815367, "adv_selected": 0.0015031379552630194 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0017144355107244899, "strength": 0.0010011171537175451, "strength_record": 0.0012996757482583718, "adv_record": 0.0040172821016726395, "adv_strength": 0.0019220167455412428, "adv_strength_record": 0.0033207761907958606, "adv_full": 0.002631913352204071, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016629197893915915, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0034582779307026656, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012177587948165682, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0029230665202018237, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002202662641954568, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0035749973357338065, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007836785231368057, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00036950756265674215, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0015183158715164654, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003726879758929732, "adv_selected": 0.0017144355107244899 } } ] }, { "season": 2021, "champion": "MIL", "cutoffDate": "2021-02-01", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.765221974714175 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.111458688429092, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.6743187710513772 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.41897028327218, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.8008334550220828, "record": 0.8701281396190375 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2979872099747634, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.22094018484389757, "record": 0.26667609655986335, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.10230644937800536, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2491720597265274, "prior_net_rating": 0.29037136634237665, "retained_minutes_share": 0.11614039044178144, "rotation_box_production": 0.08817451356160005, "star_box_production": 0.3118393830317042, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.09374729768517266, "efg_pct": 0.13718858471236903, "opp_efg_pct": -0.11207678258600802, "turnover_rate": -0.0912575266949633, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09725623727110026, "oreb_pct": 0.19348676131912323, "dreb_pct": 0.15623459194209466, "ft_rate": 0.12241309342524251, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17636356385974244, "pace": -0.13145609108784562, "three_attempt_rate": 0.10206741736216579, "three_pct": -0.1109579203895715, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.26376008584432653, "opp_three_pct": -0.13260096461785253 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.639337774903169, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.38135969215915266, "record": 0.8151208269964589, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.287340149124752, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.4596588451547718 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.33443333336824, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.27143742029202084, "record": 0.2970769500893905, "prior_net_rating": 0.29829907889459756, "retained_minutes_share": 0.11685008888951366, "rotation_box_production": 0.08870412616038574, "star_box_production": 0.32012395011917477, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.0956952103633735, "efg_pct": 0.14456880852610585, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17729347493265804, "turnover_rate": -0.0753041946730819, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1494813239322458, "oreb_pct": 0.1930588133496802, "dreb_pct": 0.18872977326830914, "ft_rate": 0.12361386675463687, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1866473184536795, "pace": -0.1393280830024273, "three_attempt_rate": 0.09526513630084764, "three_pct": -0.10287913934268034, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.24395196120183013, "opp_three_pct": -0.15074931560955893 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6848370708046843, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4352987278537022, "record": 0.4317852118567523, "prior_net_rating": 0.3609465909731224, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10291114808167631 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.595097901325478, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.24135055500560088, "record": 0.2907569875178048, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.1198147792082879, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2561300305144324, "rotation_box_production": 0.13557513523450646, "star_box_production": 0.32970945573923865, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10893896253165855, "efg_pct": 0.15376492473862594, "opp_efg_pct": -0.10611540769216482, "turnover_rate": -0.0844033356801114, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09229746513736627, "oreb_pct": 0.1986254943803771, "dreb_pct": 0.18335078247621622, "ft_rate": 0.11559861779192597, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18543115448928943, "pace": -0.13286517429977587, "three_attempt_rate": 0.10192624116527564, "three_pct": -0.08844365919379515, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.22354835390941344, "opp_three_pct": -0.12238902770362144 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6011995244882207, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.6606634850711681, "record": 0.7749230016734157, "rotation_box_production": -0.145661436432598, "star_box_production": 0.5231530873089218, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1679393589828282 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.383334789494235, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.26407823168272987, "record": 0.3052200131315326, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.14668442154180783, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.25362644928933253, "prior_net_rating": 0.34371319283082447, "retained_minutes_share": 0.10688679874639513, "efg_pct": 0.1968698848867448, "opp_efg_pct": -0.13498508589022343, "turnover_rate": -0.09578346903514552, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.07385696694463777, "oreb_pct": 0.19178702016092405, "dreb_pct": 0.17244457903026786, "ft_rate": 0.13130789302093412, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16419160451993056, "pace": -0.0851284961406578, "three_attempt_rate": 0.10055476554606, "three_pct": -0.09283152909408332, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.2642266231588744, "opp_three_pct": -0.12474502716778949 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.735668927716361, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.35249500313137333, "record": 0.3834091053603635, "efg_pct": 0.24602189975046726, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2058064740412603, "turnover_rate": -0.0811290098133371, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.12131951066024126, "oreb_pct": 0.19082312446262178, "dreb_pct": 0.20597503321527325, "ft_rate": 0.13759787122002856, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17262257683098475 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.68805548409613, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.43134335846483063, "record": 0.7872923557800231, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.29567366753459545, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.5735303591465574, "prior_net_rating": 0.7880960748868213, "retained_minutes_share": 0.3157228457819063, "rotation_box_production": -0.00879300566950693, "star_box_production": 0.6271450915612966, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.13124498967832815, "pace": -0.4385957104074824, "three_attempt_rate": 0.3645106288108487, "three_pct": -0.7357965602638773, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.7996710242159836, "opp_three_pct": -0.27771431272182107 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.384097493537608, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4727422347137897, "record": 1.3939783152384726, "pace": -0.3150767796058746, "three_attempt_rate": 0.3103398409814513, "three_pct": -0.7122228823382156, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.6795220198642437, "opp_three_pct": 0.025467258110096192 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2817663313689103, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.20213052228281725, "record": 0.25624837482974905, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.0984550162372751, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.22986778178880996, "prior_net_rating": 0.25424765706369185, "retained_minutes_share": 0.0903367343039015, "rotation_box_production": 0.06468869620901477, "star_box_production": 0.29869861089771443, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10333044187282839, "efg_pct": 0.12298898476786742, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1040033970448189, "turnover_rate": -0.08280926450625638, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.11147100715461754, "oreb_pct": 0.19365361152900062, "dreb_pct": 0.13555739341387735, "ft_rate": 0.14015585528070312, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1558794767014824 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6655420371354066, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 } } }, "selection": { "id": "record", "ridge": null, "validationLogLoss": 2.0016822109988692, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2016 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.966666666666666, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 4.266879123585541, "brier": 1.1835472418479718, "championProbability": 0.014025486731875116, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.0671372344024066, "brier": 0.8945565879026635, "championProbability": 0.12654753958675524, "topPick": "LAL", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.2221415086401297, "brier": 1.1037631939802792, "championProbability": 0.03986958571093887, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 3.759445414965561, "brier": 1.1081310408959315, "championProbability": 0.023296656770143382, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.131146433326342, "brier": 0.87825209048306, "championProbability": 0.11870113288297462, "topPick": "LAL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.8809732428292203, "brier": 1.014598270844887, "championProbability": 0.05608015665558154, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.625832068551757, "brier": 0.7188349129061402, "championProbability": 0.19674789933760592, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 3.124093840400467, "brier": 1.040777308549194, "championProbability": 0.04397676554189639, "topPick": "LAL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.6000434094327114, "brier": 0.705433113149077, "championProbability": 0.2018877539715649, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.381203656648918, "brier": 0.8912946722166585, "championProbability": 0.0924392454086154, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.7555295794382657, "brier": 0.7600541542771306, "championProbability": 0.17281569841348876, "topPick": "LAL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.0055200341415915, "brier": 0.8439869282565508, "championProbability": 0.1345902859495342, "topPick": "LAL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.202183161899081, "brier": 0.8851422383091113, "championProbability": 0.11056152099142441, "topPick": "LAL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.5225773771651427, "brier": 0.936776712964534, "championProbability": 0.08025249900841036, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.497260361666041, "brier": 0.6766684349817753, "championProbability": 0.22374229421874683, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.69280526476688, "brier": 1.0218149208784935, "championProbability": 0.0676907822094965, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.6840160107770172, "brier": 0.7431687393190973, "championProbability": 0.18562699708480684, "topPick": "LAL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 4.266879123585541, "brier": 1.1835472418479718, "championProbability": 0.014025486731875116, "topPick": "LAC", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005707382033402149, "strength": 0.023679440152493056, "strength_record": 0.011399257187774183, "adv_record": 0.01170355770951132, "adv_strength": 0.030727976935270362, "adv_strength_record": 0.02092709495006541, "adv_full": 0.024325941957974113, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023636339764925, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023001635105217137, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01559285769432363, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04040372126482116, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.019335159666380546, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.023389410685163675, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03367809370953529, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.008057353052015133, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02023395884213492, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02102467960658757, "adv_selected": 0.005707382033402149 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.017205354410753444, "strength": 0.03918606357496045, "strength_record": 0.026633598378440506, "adv_record": 0.027242228042878326, "adv_strength": 0.04612423385038959, "adv_strength_record": 0.038543142373899955, "adv_full": 0.017185941733034275, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02619386245463466, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020995457747522366, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03144994248109975, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.028639771639963767, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.031099427678808838, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01861229623547294, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04406387456480382, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015786139017899615, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008189015631244176, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.023676214283842107, "adv_selected": 0.017205354410753444 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009405260557894268, "strength": 0.018480379120894723, "strength_record": 0.01355682810705175, "adv_record": 0.01715597924784999, "adv_strength": 0.025160711185229088, "adv_strength_record": 0.02296471731472721, "adv_full": 0.01995818171564041, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022449489491373875, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021263869517542312, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04984616898127379, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014236210986835607, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015619665306476176, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.027400698405692002, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.024780411634133716, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009810314400677079, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00692083487250511, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02540703017393553, "adv_selected": 0.009405260557894268 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001549670967590999, "strength": 0.003482976389474633, "strength_record": 0.0023291615962481808, "adv_record": 0.004313235147452265, "adv_strength": 0.006551177323710819, "adv_strength_record": 0.0061090335635799325, "adv_full": 0.007117068704958854, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006478008665390987, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006984645470774467, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008986635884039557, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009191937572032745, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002903635312571438, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010152995553132465, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010109035588394523, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0025090903663006715, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008950456719368985, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004662510231186812, "adv_selected": 0.001549670967590999 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0005455664703830155, "strength": 0.002077699684277041, "strength_record": 0.0010251964131203902, "adv_record": 0.001939363099265077, "adv_strength": 0.004319192545704442, "adv_strength_record": 0.003375375689437215, "adv_full": 0.0024196721774604308, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003140466427157766, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002746777216809649, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008716409063610367, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0029044427368896133, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0021902458109788066, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004512561106382551, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008630197344614869, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00010804276546427676, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00028937863447528293, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0036954258002087417, "adv_selected": 0.0005455664703830155 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001549670967590999, "strength": 0.0008204479790864927, "strength_record": 0.0012276335346428095, "adv_record": 0.004313235147452265, "adv_strength": 0.002041825518214844, "adv_strength_record": 0.003497895420614966, "adv_full": 0.0031167466323078256, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004214261029304301, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003355862439709427, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0050403995525151206, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005388499105340434, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004063966681547673, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0026800164650662176, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00821219750881459, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00024093432587236706, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0007884539373344335, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004774006035445177, "adv_selected": 0.001549670967590999 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0006596028884456444, "strength": 0.004682929621909733, "strength_record": 0.0016363260602006656, "adv_record": 0.0022427260120831674, "adv_strength": 0.008317411795388792, "adv_strength_record": 0.004960812282219508, "adv_full": 0.022312435118895867, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005307398595922685, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022290261097236905, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018917170419651585, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01619418860344137, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009390064896554529, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01530019857927211, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007559991693776833, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.10557672500359881, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009691873651284086, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014088601375312202, "adv_selected": 0.0006596028884456444 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02009603326022665, "strength": 0.05755161836792566, "strength_record": 0.0344828371801882, "adv_record": 0.03068201524508087, "adv_strength": 0.06288227800073105, "adv_strength_record": 0.04740038399624698, "adv_full": 0.0887099905483624, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.037588738171542915, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09564140732632144, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05762332488689673, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.08521936359256033, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.08391350557955311, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.060287960397701186, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.048317601897392745, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1424103131193806, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08980613499837059, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.07013656115585101, "adv_selected": 0.02009603326022665 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 5.086413985920377e-05, "strength": 0.0011963855969177278, "strength_record": 0.00020917848857980177, "adv_record": 0.00031527931213623473, "adv_strength": 0.00276766432543024, "adv_strength_record": 0.001114213715913969, "adv_full": 0.0014729234143848369, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012105865962102602, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0014779005949104678, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003446114762587182, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002246429869706385, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010236898861751768, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0017978344815873717, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003459610320770724, "adv_without_four_factors": 7.356731738339829e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00021039221844868481, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002187380202816729, "adv_selected": 5.086413985920377e-05 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008553687758215594, "strength": 0.00452914999327983, "strength_record": 0.0068910282546186365, "adv_record": 0.015953536345895854, "adv_strength": 0.00809646644177907, "adv_strength_record": 0.012881753386728804, "adv_full": 0.004041956938196707, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01613796517305428, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0037523336886732903, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010454213339243897, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006994862620105401, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013311250863996277, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004459849723848078, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010528325273479066, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0010450456757491108, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005596151489980072, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005818326819004968, "adv_selected": 0.008553687758215594 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0036407968337639008, "strength": 0.010002835359546347, "strength_record": 0.006031542038964917, "adv_record": 0.008295260917733398, "adv_strength": 0.015337777421801469, "adv_strength_record": 0.012667286127270878, "adv_full": 0.009624445501042446, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018469211054082463, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008430289428071417, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.022150895336828638, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0093737545278621, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01125552194259631, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01525923030306609, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016608189407998197, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006090435638037175, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005825002441041093, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012039624030849206, "adv_selected": 0.0036407968337639008 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008553687758215594, "strength": 0.012009380527693974, "strength_record": 0.010613948458256034, "adv_record": 0.015953536345895854, "adv_strength": 0.017773945017775364, "adv_strength_record": 0.018763343296781535, "adv_full": 0.01285534150764992, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01809815720044441, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013161777156700947, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03677728168831774, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010243214975241366, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01494331732040596, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01540610620438952, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018841596703142154, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.008710925832513447, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010412520014883055, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.017917293372154655, "adv_selected": 0.008553687758215594 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.31937746375902226, "strength": 0.16700405072958802, "strength_record": 0.26512360286455555, "adv_record": 0.25502930260488904, "adv_strength": 0.14845586304302286, "adv_strength_record": 0.2030353570159293, "adv_full": 0.10876338240378146, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.16326813531873177, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.11969939524735129, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.13569699285623227, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10831511779356216, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.14204261832628015, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.14373175605674934, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.12901772092013147, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.10713054581321925, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.2672184095640051, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.09096379150033398, "adv_selected": 0.31937746375902226 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.141583269268026, "strength": 0.24113871395836126, "strength_record": 0.19672133689438706, "adv_record": 0.13680068096045572, "adv_strength": 0.1996369156796355, "adv_strength_record": 0.17209344708144872, "adv_full": 0.1803454129177275, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2130767026474872, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15995719030975664, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.12754541596446026, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.18257664383989688, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.1723421450197545, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.17906585124102764, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.17118296532839342, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.13282037054861412, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.12289930809067483, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.20449443206606394, "adv_selected": 0.141583269268026 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012334880374022894, "strength": 0.010413475087813531, "strength_record": 0.012262151751650881, "adv_record": 0.021114596522494856, "adv_strength": 0.015843504946908206, "adv_strength_record": 0.020390571364424143, "adv_full": 0.01640281751125004, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02714240255544039, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01532105668124751, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.027197273600980197, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.017396430553066423, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.021461304194492294, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01401011551269497, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018743056779376346, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012461592316072877, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.011636074703885611, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02056828859308745, "adv_selected": 0.012334880374022894 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00038458642450407606, "strength": 0.0005926049763519688, "strength_record": 0.0004823902949588999, "adv_record": 0.0014838527299166843, "adv_strength": 0.0015707035039739252, "adv_strength_record": 0.0018234219788066774, "adv_full": 0.011098801365909019, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002176810838923727, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011602535227510457, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010810158287071027, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006901265757190036, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023318429168608357, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011908672384924594, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005092901852664548, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03398940791988058, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003507333133075719, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00565963388622605, "adv_selected": 0.00038458642450407606 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.014025486731875116, "strength": 0.12654753958675524, "strength_record": 0.03986958571093887, "adv_record": 0.023296656770143382, "adv_strength": 0.11870113288297462, "adv_strength_record": 0.05608015665558154, "adv_full": 0.19674789933760592, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04397676554189639, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2018877539715649, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0924392454086154, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.17281569841348876, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.1345902859495342, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.11056152099142441, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08025249900841036, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.22374229421874683, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0676907822094965, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.18562699708480684, "adv_selected": 0.014025486731875116 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 6.368423763235143e-05, "strength": 9.161918014453222e-05, "strength_record": 7.613204513175853e-05, "adv_record": 0.0003744892878978024, "adv_strength": 0.0003486024411542464, "adv_strength_record": 0.0004502379055961427, "adv_full": 0.0003506900825039873, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000499840444185962, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000413902560032728, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002428133039898189, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000425695175884553, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0002669953386995588, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0005782513168307944, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0016750493229502048, "adv_without_four_factors": 6.8547400306368175e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 1.3701040770638449e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007987528367890411, "adv_selected": 6.368423763235143e-05 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0005455664703830155, "strength": 0.002516920949882802, "strength_record": 0.0011160903127902077, "adv_record": 0.001939363099265077, "adv_strength": 0.005041503572638052, "adv_strength_record": 0.0036344929391175086, "adv_full": 0.023241089745648164, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0034431953082433345, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.025157734472483602, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011144711465163805, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02342809559956763, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002914065120828488, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.024699890926388746, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01729455483965763, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011394529649577437, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008755503515202599, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013706078507748635, "adv_selected": 0.0005455664703830155 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0010746274939691304, "strength": 0.003494145567966034, "strength_record": 0.0018953782790543485, "adv_record": 0.003258947127877417, "adv_strength": 0.006568111878366548, "adv_strength_record": 0.005327293922061349, "adv_full": 0.010348801424382582, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006645262663146439, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00984264977636155, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007919423204700108, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014102053999451823, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0035536200922550378, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011802504303618053, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009873696649713685, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006716226131580769, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007224732887388569, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005181847199959383, "adv_selected": 0.0010746274939691304 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014093603790295184, "strength": 0.0003632944715204863, "strength_record": 0.0008109433803644513, "adv_record": 0.004010925444660857, "adv_strength": 0.0010586237404624757, "adv_strength_record": 0.002464912861930703, "adv_full": 0.0035640041689303805, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0026217859111589957, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003952858603236888, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010533750614369635, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002722346819833113, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0019848034294885904, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006346747742260001, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005461681635009386, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002012384880044315, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010215458987952275, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0031677334651369848, "adv_selected": 0.0014093603790295184 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00047639326848764545, "strength": 0.00018933416879989543, "strength_record": 0.0003285489530127833, "adv_record": 0.0017481371032820488, "adv_strength": 0.0006259264004523668, "adv_strength_record": 0.0012730918654004348, "adv_full": 0.004962257345605519, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013964578182186888, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0058646611484862035, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0059610474789443734, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00478739091090159, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0022325339492041984, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003944427892524275, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004777483442193435, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0009055091255265849, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0002000152200067407, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005235665067866762, "adv_selected": 0.00047639326848764545 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.141583269268026, "strength": 0.030254775625695684, "strength_record": 0.07844043197850452, "adv_record": 0.13680068096045572, "adv_strength": 0.03744093933309788, "adv_strength_record": 0.07728370458751939, "adv_full": 0.06129877446438394, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08519476892655511, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06120874229992791, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.061334037243440866, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06609996762916129, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.11618347764578267, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04984980030017512, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07175817869383742, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.05426861550531081, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.069463085755481, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.08456825142019266, "adv_selected": 0.141583269268026 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009405260557894268, "strength": 0.024782151821744293, "strength_record": 0.015438423545249786, "adv_record": 0.01715597924784999, "adv_strength": 0.03187670103074909, "adv_strength_record": 0.025716215930649124, "adv_full": 0.01504733309539866, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03151926353693395, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013670072589228184, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.030498411052939687, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01761279796836761, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.014063106910149382, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.022644251281955578, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.024790313292711443, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012641713195914827, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025958539854166088, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013875860493484804, "adv_selected": 0.009405260557894268 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009405260557894268, "strength": 0.0036098937619487167, "strength_record": 0.006576691875509915, "adv_record": 0.01715597924784999, "adv_strength": 0.006742997861362898, "adv_strength_record": 0.012233012430857804, "adv_full": 0.007941518302084461, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008257942288610093, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009644773829051528, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019714107738486846, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008175030710929721, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00957477651228183, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010781296346028294, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01156602922566856, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005020670369272359, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012296718872010665, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006392066804782131, "adv_selected": 0.009405260557894268 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0009450938736136875, "strength": 0.00034281564239625284, "strength_record": 0.0006301626925653248, "adv_record": 0.0029537007980244907, "adv_strength": 0.0010102371508076897, "adv_strength_record": 0.002072926280987854, "adv_full": 0.003581248210373558, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012959680968370585, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005266742975292443, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007765576395242347, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003942241104171593, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0038207978092710602, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0027876803173272633, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006682712574826182, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00016016768313798207, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0001336335016393701, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006297143395379418, "adv_selected": 0.0009450938736136875 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008553687758215594, "strength": 0.009322353048622176, "strength_record": 0.009487552053146664, "adv_record": 0.015953536345895854, "adv_strength": 0.014490733527324927, "adv_strength_record": 0.017017187422382823, "adv_full": 0.010113028217802808, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016583575089946633, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009989730186656694, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.027155038247302137, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01058556644208292, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012937905964872343, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011043187136070297, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018746962952058882, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015469199931023132, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0037997398777531196, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01714306066472513, "adv_selected": 0.008553687758215594 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0006596028884456444, "strength": 0.006768754448094056, "strength_record": 0.0019263652325693574, "adv_record": 0.0022427260120831674, "adv_strength": 0.011194263274443002, "adv_strength_record": 0.0057181759449725506, "adv_full": 0.014584257924923863, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0065383516032132905, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014481328115985084, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.024026084881457615, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008932232066558748, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0034721866367139723, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021686705912711688, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009757453226934604, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.017709384137789295, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0049634577425107665, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010450210033570948, "adv_selected": 0.0006596028884456444 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.2606040645027578, "strength": 0.19426953696256707, "strength_record": 0.2526237398460323, "adv_record": 0.2182552138515869, "adv_strength": 0.16770883333674058, "adv_strength_record": 0.1993276135594434, "adv_full": 0.11755457296778868, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.20273737006479844, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.1078293746614277, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.1254676917717984, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.11883322617269493, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.1463677864709811, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.17413219315720638, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.17487439923889372, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.09124934618346267, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.22627338361286506, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.11833927087079806, "adv_selected": 0.2606040645027578 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 5.086413985920377e-05, "strength": 0.0005987136432884267, "strength_record": 0.0001539365914912118, "adv_record": 0.00031527931213623473, "adv_strength": 0.001583746034460022, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008531281354041486, "adv_full": 0.0009134645639914872, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007009167216289141, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0011072805549087192, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0033614866585088706, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013118015483898882, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008102967665048323, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0011659890393084457, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0036632153697121307, "adv_without_four_factors": 1.210618993431451e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 2.9861069201882544e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0021032630218531033, "adv_selected": 5.086413985920377e-05 } } ] }, { "season": 2022, "champion": "GSW", "cutoffDate": "2022-02-01", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.6191616788573222 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.3468853636485876, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.7152492840897475 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.377852590422775, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.0665592288862547, "record": 0.5611469056169743 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3812709289539713, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.23325956308226425, "record": 0.22414754421086325, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.11180031658084792, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.24132556393614807, "prior_net_rating": 0.3247335171500685, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09243492763343077, "rotation_box_production": 0.13772630553761936, "star_box_production": 0.36947892600133364, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10824491521000011, "efg_pct": 0.14198403691668876, "opp_efg_pct": -0.11027511970426848, "turnover_rate": -0.0839789871308201, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09001236180774434, "oreb_pct": 0.2256200237794832, "dreb_pct": 0.18389800119291483, "ft_rate": 0.09602112651605196, "opp_ft_rate": -0.2016936874657372, "pace": -0.10250696616026994, "three_attempt_rate": 0.11140817570044782, "three_pct": -0.1048487282673599, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.30251995974350976, "opp_three_pct": -0.07311266510217872 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.494551245424396, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.6357831687127053, "record": 0.4277739410333161, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.4454749721238893, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.4306334324527965 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4472419772299863, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.28355806325565064, "record": 0.25572946971470234, "prior_net_rating": 0.33350258043917147, "retained_minutes_share": 0.0933592451519721, "rotation_box_production": 0.13883725224788532, "star_box_production": 0.37654874923675535, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11229843050635971, "efg_pct": 0.15013083683389125, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17293210410836599, "turnover_rate": -0.07044397759101166, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1381239345844207, "oreb_pct": 0.22634267976367603, "dreb_pct": 0.21515363138249347, "ft_rate": 0.09857660373940758, "opp_ft_rate": -0.21240892879722262, "pace": -0.10855566240906653, "three_attempt_rate": 0.10514566326641227, "three_pct": -0.09621627322805902, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.28116701710260883, "opp_three_pct": -0.09204553230308474 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.529866547751545, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.46661473041306784, "record": 0.3866792815273927, "prior_net_rating": 0.43439316058899957, "retained_minutes_share": 0.07541396161955065 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.564541580657398, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.23747761616253837, "record": 0.6206989875937667, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.14681604088542258, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.5554042616021052, "rotation_box_production": 0.3138555230063026, "star_box_production": 0.7913289585255903, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.27660076586106525, "efg_pct": 0.47335055435574225, "opp_efg_pct": 0.10406434095709385, "turnover_rate": -0.27973750328508784, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09919347597686576, "oreb_pct": 0.6735212660166072, "dreb_pct": 0.4811220142074687, "ft_rate": 0.24083497165990486, "opp_ft_rate": -0.6092953589300173, "pace": -0.3967127011464855, "three_attempt_rate": 0.36871698796226693, "three_pct": -0.4279360537170689, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.7189621104104823, "opp_three_pct": -0.21572262420490715 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4752697235966505, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.7838444090824436, "record": 0.4490647130094144, "rotation_box_production": 0.011807881986091243, "star_box_production": 0.6665007587526744, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.21071227624509054 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3293612530152856, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.29257633320011495, "record": 0.26365866310403874, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.17538558572477128, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.24226953310327692, "prior_net_rating": 0.4027804180884417, "retained_minutes_share": 0.08183164794071314, "efg_pct": 0.22252559933714955, "opp_efg_pct": -0.13646097166023144, "turnover_rate": -0.09377796067154408, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0640815779532742, "oreb_pct": 0.2273118597410495, "dreb_pct": 0.20320898357061246, "ft_rate": 0.10048298336080984, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1915602567002799, "pace": -0.036300816281485224, "three_attempt_rate": 0.09826925031941995, "three_pct": -0.084445184576183, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3136728774771116, "opp_three_pct": -0.05149184496357451 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6594566754567497, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.38064292457737087, "record": 0.331333810902659, "efg_pct": 0.30509460296562024, "opp_efg_pct": -0.16321293310203752, "turnover_rate": -0.08161849575068517, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.11250047179748492, "oreb_pct": 0.2272721497711247, "dreb_pct": 0.24088648011300146, "ft_rate": 0.10823278436670455, "opp_ft_rate": -0.19154171889684374 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.66441575453456, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.5385317425953232, "record": 0.6622371482549662, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.27014368077359113, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.6036091950653921, "prior_net_rating": 0.8544100917520085, "retained_minutes_share": 0.2652613740410646, "rotation_box_production": 0.10385606923218926, "star_box_production": 0.6887313483180741, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1892985953703942, "pace": -0.42005922053680805, "three_attempt_rate": 0.37946832559578597, "three_pct": -0.728460282538898, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.8547936448870098, "opp_three_pct": -0.15826821243930064 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2574064746988123, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 2.121539015169226, "record": 0.8130560282646557, "pace": -0.2014595845025482, "three_attempt_rate": 0.27885325702859515, "three_pct": -0.6787401882234726, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.7530764038374083, "opp_three_pct": 0.1982105381398133 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.3404861789971916, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.20619688925590318, "record": 0.19690878959891586, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.11224563458417472, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2039588995510953, "prior_net_rating": 0.2904946783383833, "retained_minutes_share": 0.06416731810675602, "rotation_box_production": 0.12571049023016528, "star_box_production": 0.3662290522145301, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11679707545805669, "efg_pct": 0.13619081526705276, "opp_efg_pct": -0.07599890697199976, "turnover_rate": -0.07197735032755588, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.11231280494817601, "oreb_pct": 0.22591134757132986, "dreb_pct": 0.16839169707086413, "ft_rate": 0.11302344750328026, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1739169283396984 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5253240333699223, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2574064746988123, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2021 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 1.709427152987409, "brier": 0.9764955892658354, "championProbability": 0.1809694307276596, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.1857236516772565, "brier": 0.5676334188956911, "championProbability": 0.30552500579911396, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.3534547369621255, "brier": 0.7239159216010506, "championProbability": 0.258346198998511, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 1.8022013765151035, "brier": 0.8506543182061796, "championProbability": 0.1649354033613893, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.3959939494048976, "brier": 0.6358629246910205, "championProbability": 0.24758682524918477, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.5339862154608186, "brier": 0.7024277589727405, "championProbability": 0.21567422757402566, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.786314602154886, "brier": 0.7725359779003786, "championProbability": 0.16757661955036085, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.4290397913885573, "brier": 0.6627544735961324, "championProbability": 0.2395388190884893, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.9284096729773947, "brier": 0.8144581239826829, "championProbability": 0.14537921523335512, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.3075434620305026, "brier": 0.8747476194781034, "championProbability": 0.09950539033831869, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.5620366547514501, "brier": 0.8893140086404361, "championProbability": 0.20970853209546242, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.107937544005004, "brier": 0.8579922239998795, "championProbability": 0.12148827243790541, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.6291474345277757, "brier": 0.7102153906602567, "championProbability": 0.19609668814449577, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.821279806367949, "brier": 0.7558924681427631, "championProbability": 0.16181852198081587, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.3469586781255563, "brier": 0.7037572630545339, "championProbability": 0.260029893877088, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 0.5813691071949858, "brier": 0.21895125459365883, "championProbability": 0.5591323301958875, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.1331655010214776, "brier": 0.8392163569126452, "championProbability": 0.11846170904799691, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.3469586781255563, "brier": 0.7037572630545339, "championProbability": 0.260029893877088, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0029529374928961858, "strength": 0.007538532216930765, "strength_record": 0.004912299400320144, "adv_record": 0.008021904984213504, "adv_strength": 0.01176889996008152, "adv_strength_record": 0.011378750304472097, "adv_full": 0.020195947440449693, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01036821222171093, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02350140955613335, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.025069287745676364, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003747113440969355, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.014456648884264428, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019672844286089078, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.025929352322249886, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0010673695019889485, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0013346071187947614, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.029525096664010413, "adv_selected": 0.0010673695019889485 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.016760340039811857, "strength": 0.012759953049062243, "strength_record": 0.01517375079253047, "adv_record": 0.028721512143766587, "adv_strength": 0.01814742192390178, "adv_strength_record": 0.023174876434059417, "adv_full": 0.01222919908005709, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020550768756903738, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013962936188474192, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03581108662747579, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000740871316836661, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017997358142228127, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018831237977199204, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.025706963728507976, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015976946598450824, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0030636183050817807, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.018318756266792163, "adv_selected": 0.0015976946598450824 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005429464241766153, "strength": 0.032524146736806966, "strength_record": 0.014271394136485434, "adv_record": 0.012548400453349621, "adv_strength": 0.0391919957163052, "adv_strength_record": 0.028074238028140134, "adv_full": 0.04809980739881859, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03039907607035626, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04536297905668388, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03316412501224559, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03209866578770004, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02993225898787898, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.039417095801656823, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.036987526467292205, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02906917069873994, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02600224245002444, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.045141432291449325, "adv_selected": 0.02906917069873994 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008621842154906346, "strength": 0.006443547652707827, "strength_record": 0.007650359205224114, "adv_record": 0.01762516281175152, "adv_strength": 0.010343011529960287, "adv_strength_record": 0.013794107151905896, "adv_full": 0.007253512468200478, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01181971578770335, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007818530719432679, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018062078428844528, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0006601975060027374, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008774975112572967, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010430272222804854, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015868857886668072, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00048643212667064383, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003968959084068389, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009822603739478542, "adv_selected": 0.00048643212667064383 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03158462571768311, "strength": 0.012623763458997477, "strength_record": 0.020587086474557745, "adv_record": 0.04574793096987115, "adv_strength": 0.01798788628763578, "adv_strength_record": 0.027082964210815585, "adv_full": 0.005224006777367045, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022651730276793725, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006098992414908105, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.025384278973370374, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00024744341531192577, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01882310793506549, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007264522419858499, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03177435112900879, "adv_without_four_factors": 8.102762476868572e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012938415086598432, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.015904657778133085, "adv_selected": 8.102762476868572e-05 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.021488277976023422, "strength": 0.06403677064539003, "strength_record": 0.03999220986554664, "adv_record": 0.03447365748007609, "adv_strength": 0.06843963440147514, "adv_strength_record": 0.056358860503060264, "adv_full": 0.014985303859658483, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.059469377431386396, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013461847700094412, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02017595095857488, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008368866980054459, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.023014336053628067, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.020700229161635206, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06026235604858115, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015820416202986904, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.027634942384242096, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019075357292919533, "adv_selected": 0.0015820416202986904 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.011689625097585596, "strength": 0.02297506829732578, "strength_record": 0.01731820850243818, "adv_record": 0.022042010879030578, "adv_strength": 0.0294431694032746, "adv_strength_record": 0.028566899004008682, "adv_full": 0.04194567585455428, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02834646319410183, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04169504051621031, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.040673889313354174, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.027437117099637646, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03197336750060193, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.035939949477262596, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03649800475042042, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0413857228026121, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.018989553783236558, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.041286481855263985, "adv_selected": 0.0413857228026121 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012209176465322658, "strength": 0.019613274360956737, "strength_record": 0.01628087924513086, "adv_record": 0.02275753519822005, "adv_strength": 0.025849209222568684, "adv_strength_record": 0.02663887658683386, "adv_full": 0.07945404920438409, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.025423599691266334, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08475438865648519, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04570657934077723, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.07414025247356196, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.19106417544516885, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02916206446175551, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.028749694298583255, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.11947154159747372, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010865030084077453, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0866985964346734, "adv_selected": 0.11947154159747372 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 7.676143702697803e-05, "strength": 9.078275257168565e-05, "strength_record": 8.052355704937107e-05, "adv_record": 0.0005493030052484912, "adv_strength": 0.0003100260081907429, "adv_strength_record": 0.0004682545029229647, "adv_full": 0.0003054457270571249, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003540282977365015, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00036976935216195594, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0023530391593456585, "adv_without_prior_roster": 3.4524324546103922e-06, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0003318124684290744, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0004152588989500961, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.001151861747977883, "adv_without_four_factors": 8.323554641376595e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 2.0848493788741905e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007078101170810209, "adv_selected": 8.323554641376595e-06 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.1809694307276596, "strength": 0.30552500579911396, "strength_record": 0.258346198998511, "adv_record": 0.1649354033613893, "adv_strength": 0.24758682524918477, "adv_strength_record": 0.21567422757402566, "adv_full": 0.16757661955036085, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2395388190884893, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.14537921523335512, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.09950539033831869, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.20970853209546242, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.12148827243790541, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.19609668814449577, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.16181852198081587, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.260029893877088, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.5591323301958875, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.11846170904799691, "adv_selected": 0.260029893877088 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00013237592213387187, "strength": 0.0001189775332831181, "strength_record": 0.00012124760589062615, "adv_record": 0.0008197343786185481, "adv_strength": 0.000387306517693692, "adv_strength_record": 0.000617786597341818, "adv_full": 0.0007733285675690967, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000451792743230778, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001067863996039694, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0021173770982239517, "adv_without_prior_roster": 3.596266030096837e-05, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010264770559143255, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008636549551200177, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002470074358071472, "adv_without_four_factors": 1.4246872817763081e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 2.8504751013907384e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0013060208392957435, "adv_selected": 1.4246872817763081e-05 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0004983005838291451, "strength": 0.0033232288474328176, "strength_record": 0.001335058008161182, "adv_record": 0.0021706260588286036, "adv_strength": 0.005998132051427413, "adv_strength_record": 0.004757023805483449, "adv_full": 0.003327679115896849, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004527086180647008, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003720625390107938, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010397080964691252, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00018953947005067508, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004938052865325522, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003973549316101121, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00949755799135952, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0002091631668329473, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005564633488860497, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007081644805367925, "adv_selected": 0.0002091631668329473 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003479307965076138, "strength": 0.004769959798989053, "strength_record": 0.0041861930111086985, "adv_record": 0.009049223801636952, "adv_strength": 0.00807552070718728, "adv_strength_record": 0.009386963664099019, "adv_full": 0.007389014453340297, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00816393006556965, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008146330192152355, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.030943376328681008, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0001964342829302325, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008416026338322512, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010074452808648602, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010406918411204407, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001350503368658683, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0004455458885198142, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011586799341758538, "adv_selected": 0.001350503368658683 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002551514300057308, "strength": 0.0022535078443694247, "strength_record": 0.0024250764738604864, "adv_record": 0.007205445500682697, "adv_strength": 0.004357078606181511, "adv_strength_record": 0.0059102056950680335, "adv_full": 0.0060750304465272105, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004901161741743254, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007092723640910375, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014522218153700795, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0004147875570177243, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013854509899896384, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005279423361823297, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00879967045466738, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0007344642787343712, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005498844048158605, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010630959045128452, "adv_selected": 0.0007344642787343712 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0485734801317297, "strength": 0.040889485108518246, "strength_record": 0.047135124252748066, "adv_record": 0.06276109417856114, "adv_strength": 0.04731471746377913, "adv_strength_record": 0.055138708959676826, "adv_full": 0.03978835673142037, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05153029970818636, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03852351996851713, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05192269572796877, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.019247292376670326, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.027321333008108722, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.05649639301530414, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07932265411920646, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0053069369588036154, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.04102422906356843, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06495131973823218, "adv_selected": 0.0053069369588036154 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.029134135028147948, "strength": 0.03771541101466393, "strength_record": 0.03516007285281126, "adv_record": 0.04311272135932682, "adv_strength": 0.044270979508379125, "adv_strength_record": 0.04644946513683164, "adv_full": 0.06966499912767649, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04530836023227098, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07130575094313557, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04302349863166351, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06108707783835799, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.038626361067122104, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07601698519969592, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.056069795474996825, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.05576874351852761, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09437424537834523, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04408791970938947, "adv_selected": 0.05576874351852761 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.017922135968809327, "strength": 0.019887973526352385, "strength_record": 0.01979697092258806, "adv_record": 0.03017102386586659, "adv_strength": 0.026146755362180602, "adv_strength_record": 0.02958345019241262, "adv_full": 0.22090962006313022, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.027022149917019293, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2291111882780937, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.054886514334789, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.5024833506950562, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.12464494738790297, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.09978059424106299, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04482184060978409, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.3635270173819111, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.04244522669164906, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.13637842945087078, "adv_selected": 0.3635270173819111 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004028086420786958, "strength": 0.012939304188109855, "strength_record": 0.007596965706752652, "adv_record": 0.01007715526597253, "adv_strength": 0.018357058914502095, "adv_strength_record": 0.01623591320633993, "adv_full": 0.013889193314347589, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015751291930510992, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013497221899788995, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015728940242527654, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0024846225753927553, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02273038705666755, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010121058193106085, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011399758282826317, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009328097387575356, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.021884711046987658, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013767606000050534, "adv_selected": 0.009328097387575356 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00045833930372686884, "strength": 0.001066699447396451, "strength_record": 0.0007054885634014571, "adv_record": 0.002041337881826899, "adv_strength": 0.0023545632147771293, "adv_strength_record": 0.0026035851028952694, "adv_full": 0.005970733548863218, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002186346083882314, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0070196774295423914, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007792613218162569, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001475303565046429, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004500548702106465, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005035554115739254, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008275227581026617, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005171072637311042, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.000672808167822828, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008971875240391534, "adv_selected": 0.0005171072637311042 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002551514300057308, "strength": 0.004211761433893582, "strength_record": 0.0033680499172927423, "adv_record": 0.007205445500682697, "adv_strength": 0.0072894229125571985, "adv_strength_record": 0.008139087975698737, "adv_full": 0.021200402396106956, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007184714984704599, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023040955823633493, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.020127029812578613, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009442664064846513, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006038563492231882, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.027974412059493716, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02007859531587862, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0069086625228486935, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004449283774294994, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01565241025483911, "adv_selected": 0.0069086625228486935 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00019857860724142837, "strength": 0.00026693516619622, "strength_record": 0.0002261326016428744, "adv_record": 0.0011042266109563652, "adv_strength": 0.0007530721561159032, "adv_strength_record": 0.0010357296286437174, "adv_full": 0.0014097163455032843, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008070845118483634, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0014888669298300367, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00210923742964788, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0004212540748108701, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009615838004186358, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0013965771586906183, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0025037169483452227, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0001705284465339879, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003941824358924959, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0011507506727600426, "adv_selected": 0.0001705284465339879 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 4.877432955988364e-05, "strength": 0.00016915846691209, "strength_record": 8.939313252786282e-05, "adv_record": 0.00039366414720960773, "adv_strength": 0.0005173856450107138, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005736398116566086, "adv_full": 0.0004466687642039062, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004598228900699558, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005149734426383862, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0015817270864356696, "adv_without_prior_roster": 1.5215072764140539e-05, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007101453496080937, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00042955742015770687, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0014473119742030392, "adv_without_four_factors": 1.1604724559818957e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 4.0076630759492564e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007674264194653533, "adv_selected": 1.1604724559818957e-05 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.025951707217446114, "strength": 0.01630886985069292, "strength_record": 0.02138866722160264, "adv_record": 0.03960049082244645, "adv_strength": 0.02220818552870456, "adv_strength_record": 0.029369238091165536, "adv_full": 0.05116477195957116, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026453195240913413, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05502635781508669, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0566757369859384, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013045120196394163, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.12258889445273938, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02333999525236984, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.024547288165314537, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.05358484960344136, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005752693201079662, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.07126735938891963, "adv_selected": 0.05358484960344136 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.5468192900183741, "strength": 0.2568304658407932, "strength_record": 0.40560230693840227, "adv_record": 0.3716294812618482, "adv_strength": 0.21462597643878298, "adv_strength_record": 0.2615081327376478, "adv_full": 0.06701047492220709, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.25635448959914814, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.062346456069605295, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.17750579430979652, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008530689591336918, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.10673973769844117, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.11438596807543637, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.1300271376872147, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.026826405716745876, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09322026703621032, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10178550487338266, "adv_selected": 0.026826405716745876 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0010237560020224321, "strength": 0.0012295977474362473, "strength_record": 0.0011273405273455105, "adv_record": 0.00368388965267559, "adv_strength": 0.0026466666842021288, "adv_strength_record": 0.003435655087865329, "adv_full": 0.004900338984229627, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002704256508089917, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006110806362360698, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012176977347387744, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00039461804708003096, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0033593605368525377, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00701855697935363, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00926977171496791, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00038288161202232286, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0006257036347829118, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0066196448066335204, "adv_selected": 0.00038288161202232286 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.000369686165303756, "strength": 0.0004551928091482903, "strength_record": 0.00040593721654367317, "adv_record": 0.0017431493281156003, "adv_strength": 0.0011683456581837353, "adv_strength_record": 0.0015942745195881712, "adv_full": 0.0011914521137177882, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012263273535878683, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0015193692442261842, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005451078929369931, "adv_without_prior_roster": 2.723101416825434e-05, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0019055338556552583, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0013462177501425844, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004110991694056351, "adv_without_four_factors": 1.741463130205182e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 3.6667997155227814e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003080434106915719, "adv_selected": 1.741463130205182e-05 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0005569233546028411, "strength": 0.00628067532207806, "strength_record": 0.0019696245820018422, "adv_record": 0.0023554314145040438, "adv_strength": 0.01012739302996648, "adv_strength_record": 0.006777722070394054, "adv_full": 0.0032232458162605314, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006692118615540382, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0034190315862789463, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012404154881872496, "adv_without_prior_roster": 8.258217796112272e-05, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00616277053622396, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0038052072445382066, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010374391064362552, "adv_without_four_factors": 4.627717243719236e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00018683607970334184, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009097308832733946, "adv_selected": 4.627717243719236e-05 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005566238707060857, "strength": 0.011629164821772687, "strength_record": 0.008417247277285024, "adv_record": 0.01277985436364762, "adv_strength": 0.016813280801159035, "adv_strength_record": 0.016692283132216382, "adv_full": 0.01041632560478573, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01573258963199372, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01035245440174393, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.021606360471798546, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0018623364032694806, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.007952565032555124, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.013634030094383158, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017235383392733745, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0018759930770413202, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010268469442736176, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013554253527985623, "adv_selected": 0.0018759930770413202 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015848972002386132, "strength": 0.093393120488143, "strength_record": 0.041997469041225484, "adv_record": 0.027565716628011185, "adv_strength": 0.09336101440414663, "adv_strength_record": 0.06326453705116027, "adv_full": 0.07126456593476566, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06903019084265025, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07094522153348112, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10261295288469277, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.021265837750611794, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0326693608576328, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.15828431029931775, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.1146142477669963, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.018479208709333433, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.030323358294476983, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.08688134568934607, "adv_selected": 0.018479208709333433 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0025044023209658864, "strength": 0.0021296657739548214, "strength_record": 0.002332723969013713, "adv_record": 0.0071074666916649395, "adv_strength": 0.004159064692484166, "adv_strength_record": 0.005714543233570335, "adv_full": 0.00271451442896935, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004591000401944413, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0033454956588880726, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010508929262089739, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00014556803794158683, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00699652803853133, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002813339607807202, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009980176632678374, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00016067552201414273, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00041486932343794424, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006438485768734797, "adv_selected": 0.00016067552201414273 } } ] }, { "season": 2023, "champion": "DEN", "cutoffDate": "2023-02-01", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.6698161441459414 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.278799865256902, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.8290405350604895 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.25512026029554, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.163607371253841, "record": 0.5522616493282798 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.275360339767327, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.25670342908204036, "record": 0.2516333589011618, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.11350004343671823, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2752294433481653, "prior_net_rating": 0.291805818061817, "retained_minutes_share": 0.08425306174549245, "rotation_box_production": 0.18548300592535816, "star_box_production": 0.3189937953526651, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10646418828519649, "efg_pct": 0.1652670288768076, "opp_efg_pct": -0.14762620056825276, "turnover_rate": -0.028092497768014226, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10708049300170273, "oreb_pct": 0.2358364380372838, "dreb_pct": 0.22463318390054768, "ft_rate": 0.06707427779762003, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15030783448903742, "pace": -0.08562095921356641, "three_attempt_rate": 0.16609682032481557, "three_pct": -0.1254510086863804, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3149058010556371, "opp_three_pct": -0.10559920836760563 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4060216650157074, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.6795825151478216, "record": 0.4415414364323509, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.4253385365399355, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.4930122823748102 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3199667039998078, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3142616540657285, "record": 0.2873704742791843, "prior_net_rating": 0.29882120853633276, "retained_minutes_share": 0.08450006350506034, "rotation_box_production": 0.18494528559772644, "star_box_production": 0.32410313232928123, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.10970544404387761, "efg_pct": 0.17274706014166716, "opp_efg_pct": -0.22436733488448274, "turnover_rate": -0.007372097445817, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.16504152260490274, "oreb_pct": 0.23618771954426168, "dreb_pct": 0.26201197448170993, "ft_rate": 0.06782386707610555, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16071856891002595, "pace": -0.09268742282948374, "three_attempt_rate": 0.16081063211844804, "three_pct": -0.11891591404866338, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.2909919816458218, "opp_three_pct": -0.12799195020477097 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.454684438404776, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.5161449136604199, "record": 0.4217375489537823, "prior_net_rating": 0.38982760648936804, "retained_minutes_share": 0.0760874155598497 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.532416815829036, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.29443633653484114, "record": 0.678284167372482, "adjusted_off_rating": -0.0845895105588169, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.5388201670391535, "rotation_box_production": 0.3825595506625772, "star_box_production": 0.6447771249582241, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2522191796451996, "efg_pct": 0.5486891793630919, "opp_efg_pct": 0.01692753338015066, "turnover_rate": -0.16125360622122178, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.1356246160653109, "oreb_pct": 0.6998040515826368, "dreb_pct": 0.5832976489748684, "ft_rate": 0.13818702156590584, "opp_ft_rate": -0.46786762422535877, "pace": -0.3440794128685766, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4303911685128162, "three_pct": -0.5394314288932428, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.7083501510316749, "opp_three_pct": -0.276078606792337 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.361115589991001, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.9365022401823445, "record": 0.47823838117048656, "rotation_box_production": 0.08029783980840836, "star_box_production": 0.5368101260632745, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.1794542505523662 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3016832893890005, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3133627447754715, "record": 0.2912767988321007, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.1772219014508129, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.27176694645190297, "prior_net_rating": 0.369535512954636, "retained_minutes_share": 0.08317900777917156, "efg_pct": 0.24138384407791563, "opp_efg_pct": -0.16505124445954875, "turnover_rate": -0.046157352762368924, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08716603217690984, "oreb_pct": 0.23138870946701562, "dreb_pct": 0.23836171711433696, "ft_rate": 0.06893600148668944, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14690964770394213, "pace": -0.016830010850419064, "three_attempt_rate": 0.1542057384436647, "three_pct": -0.10525664610410375, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3329541786186001, "opp_three_pct": -0.09063045641377414 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.530668020340628, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.40268892002141626, "record": 0.3562821896171368, "efg_pct": 0.330672058307491, "opp_efg_pct": -0.20450185076148575, "turnover_rate": -0.014693827345502883, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.14114979538949274, "oreb_pct": 0.22168251935106748, "dreb_pct": 0.2742554006017644, "ft_rate": 0.081382978504209, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1478186685882422 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.559023761013734, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.61828692535903, "record": 0.740002104541325, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.27132511383819163, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.6892192403537922, "prior_net_rating": 0.8160481104245147, "retained_minutes_share": 0.23231977706871926, "rotation_box_production": 0.18245402526954513, "star_box_production": 0.5696352995612957, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.155162001330033, "pace": -0.40846451247364746, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4457413492327635, "three_pct": -0.7676328348194212, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.8741891538752046, "opp_three_pct": -0.1637774412291123 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.143600500127156, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 2.236972265802932, "record": 0.8596659461769531, "pace": -0.196606257099224, "three_attempt_rate": 0.35615544061349663, "three_pct": -0.7659100680712515, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.7886258102053765, "opp_three_pct": 0.15978998768103045 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.120596545021916, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.22993771431498028, "record": 0.2242454993873375, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.11274925363044917, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.24019549742922433, "prior_net_rating": 0.24331162430245662, "retained_minutes_share": 0.05619485997695525, "rotation_box_production": 0.1871653600046055, "star_box_production": 0.3164140038736981, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.11958730100400894, "efg_pct": 0.16896924449915424, "opp_efg_pct": -0.12170857784304903, "turnover_rate": 0.0008939714508064355, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.12920784974215266, "oreb_pct": 0.2286161799591462, "dreb_pct": 0.2060993923346794, "ft_rate": 0.0838943830887456, "opp_ft_rate": -0.12395908471629424 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4763042168263665, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.120596545021916, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2022 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666656, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 1.661457512999055, "brier": 0.7707494662603064, "championProbability": 0.18986205192862562, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.5033967891614175, "brier": 0.9507491470444756, "championProbability": 0.08180664621012912, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.0254466566686733, "brier": 0.8674417660720256, "championProbability": 0.13193490042211617, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 1.8555909263179389, "brier": 0.7936674109668165, "championProbability": 0.15636051782443694, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.5256472269619192, "brier": 0.933555021113491, "championProbability": 0.08000651365286547, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.2679990881739927, "brier": 0.8831344462720078, "championProbability": 0.10351910559681474, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.0754920861507413, "brier": 0.8465400934695063, "championProbability": 0.12549465811326593, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.351103503618354, "brier": 0.9070370207522305, "championProbability": 0.09526398004509178, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.9558732889771873, "brier": 0.8117928702761816, "championProbability": 0.14144090396228146, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.6531953051978587, "brier": 0.9288081666319762, "championProbability": 0.0704258211618256, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.7813874120026056, "brier": 0.8143938785850003, "championProbability": 0.1684043389107439, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 0.9302619701966878, "brier": 0.40938541196124617, "championProbability": 0.3944503625961008, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.944266074980533, "brier": 1.0018499461771833, "championProbability": 0.052640679954457766, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.3219673970095847, "brier": 0.8740451474543705, "championProbability": 0.09808043251263221, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 3.129199461505426, "brier": 1.1068514138704288, "championProbability": 0.04375280904462351, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.8373986454071165, "brier": 1.1343299842132797, "championProbability": 0.021549586610859463, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.7033403950175003, "brier": 0.7312850915768103, "championProbability": 0.1820743069984981, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 3.8373986454071165, "brier": 1.1343299842132797, "championProbability": 0.021549586610859463, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005079052704417504, "strength": 0.006165787577292986, "strength_record": 0.005827773754528954, "adv_record": 0.01006513801445298, "adv_strength": 0.008651765037389141, "adv_strength_record": 0.010149615970774201, "adv_full": 0.009653858329777337, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008858027432110355, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011329827487913441, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019170057659347983, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012521776627672683, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009365023217193385, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006769327991775535, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011271867778733027, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001224057522077375, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010673283644038669, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.015130063285986645, "adv_selected": 0.0010673283644038669 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0558316712166092, "strength": 0.06121119508231704, "strength_record": 0.06311743942801372, "adv_record": 0.061867876572943244, "adv_strength": 0.06233836563056546, "adv_strength_record": 0.06499860781773635, "adv_full": 0.007168519893267373, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06585090251600706, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007276501175181299, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04636976448478151, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00016581477630667134, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02210080516382768, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01451590988723419, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.039008856057687134, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000924724682080549, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008951549101747443, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014245324745351817, "adv_selected": 0.008951549101747443 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.27271166522665646, "strength": 0.23613399041669594, "strength_record": 0.27856908799281643, "adv_record": 0.20571115215098149, "adv_strength": 0.1991648305165581, "adv_strength_record": 0.2024908912171307, "adv_full": 0.16830239562687166, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.21646350893848204, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.16066449157093066, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.1690758618815912, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.18106739995545731, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.09631184085568305, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.22252867782554717, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.15251361568618862, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.2022894981170496, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.2827812949212367, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1369285778369458, "adv_selected": 0.2827812949212367 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00012239458599124772, "strength": 0.00028886594135977276, "strength_record": 0.00018922894633098813, "adv_record": 0.0005986151902581591, "adv_strength": 0.0006214768032931275, "adv_strength_record": 0.0007472900595987793, "adv_full": 0.0017962460371145847, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006007460357482611, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0021891787895327104, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004299992431443844, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00010134948708042738, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004114884053524147, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0020806198220952097, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0024185406758727916, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0001243977986313224, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 7.908720928270718e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0020508374015978043, "adv_selected": 7.908720928270718e-05 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0029079958341167835, "strength": 0.010829587943560624, "strength_record": 0.006076669093967552, "adv_record": 0.006597181007962095, "adv_strength": 0.01404658371024187, "adv_strength_record": 0.012013465172169217, "adv_full": 0.015155076441318695, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011644754532137976, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015938023276117107, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019014654571973884, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002902548367076525, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008108744490963968, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01674459131201216, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019425315973289888, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0025252965357206183, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003167207667092494, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.015552909186789178, "adv_selected": 0.003167207667092494 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.029201487518849992, "strength": 0.1508368304185399, "strength_record": 0.07578519434438721, "adv_record": 0.037865497696681946, "adv_strength": 0.1354381983170911, "adv_strength_record": 0.09052530675816776, "adv_full": 0.045755044640537146, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10688701576827268, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03902024290817914, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06385187745985817, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.023021045757841585, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.029909456559140495, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06825299938108476, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08725944808746644, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.027600619369548808, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.11163774321081064, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.05360038743527808, "adv_selected": 0.11163774321081064 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008682738063739794, "strength": 0.01080447024479976, "strength_record": 0.010189330348758708, "adv_record": 0.015108622268471197, "adv_strength": 0.01401854919870714, "adv_strength_record": 0.015781041874421677, "adv_full": 0.011221810487475703, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013828097864169676, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012868328680737328, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.030328608873944944, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00117102302163048, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012298136055602414, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01640684292891055, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015413325079448752, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.014572858569255179, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008893538972422644, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00893474092801643, "adv_selected": 0.008893538972422644 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.18986205192862562, "strength": 0.08180664621012912, "strength_record": 0.13193490042211617, "adv_record": 0.15636051782443694, "adv_strength": 0.08000651365286547, "adv_strength_record": 0.10351910559681474, "adv_full": 0.12549465811326593, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09526398004509178, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.14144090396228146, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0704258211618256, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1684043389107439, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.3944503625961008, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.052640679954457766, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09808043251263221, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04375280904462351, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.021549586610859463, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1820743069984981, "adv_selected": 0.021549586610859463 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 6.015611657799552e-05, "strength": 0.00014706692370306388, "strength_record": 9.367100924311366e-05, "adv_record": 0.00034951692545969544, "adv_strength": 0.0003476812261567218, "adv_strength_record": 0.00043224538794205445, "adv_full": 0.00026036386818534247, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003233056162609118, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00037205961588798763, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0014303240369031762, "adv_without_prior_roster": 4.421138479549316e-06, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00022930780848002877, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00036827729657311505, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0014995674789633475, "adv_without_four_factors": 1.1074100634040607e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 5.356634186726499e-06, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005423186047913035, "adv_selected": 5.356634186726499e-06 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008806966572725308, "strength": 0.009304086446661683, "strength_record": 0.009457956202374898, "adv_record": 0.015272089268994168, "adv_strength": 0.012326495819013449, "adv_strength_record": 0.014592910574442269, "adv_full": 0.020570149499453846, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012851299437282502, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023298630035194553, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03362495146690945, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0019338107605345102, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011026898162760151, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.024183330053971174, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02049265818003621, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005080003902183847, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0034303151963517515, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02118661180004176, "adv_selected": 0.0034303151963517515 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 5.0012016328967436e-05, "strength": 9.919379510581989e-05, "strength_record": 6.92958481990273e-05, "adv_record": 0.00030388658996936504, "adv_strength": 0.00024776055165502583, "adv_strength_record": 0.0003326765700753702, "adv_full": 0.0018152735869241773, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00023985729643480154, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002388705821741315, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0013145998042778466, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007053251071108505, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00024802037704848656, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0018036938435574408, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002573479751711774, "adv_without_four_factors": 7.316119820583269e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00010597341418921809, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001264705749783686, "adv_selected": 0.00010597341418921809 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0029918035739846696, "strength": 0.003111055345604155, "strength_record": 0.0031278709982134807, "adv_record": 0.006740709032661, "adv_strength": 0.004802927596423214, "adv_strength_record": 0.0061130303419411995, "adv_full": 0.0015667077611245448, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005286795202012393, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017188828231549558, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009280049200292592, "adv_without_prior_roster": 3.231745931708223e-05, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0024440176632390676, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002562986193523517, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005533751271128347, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00010633007613173821, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0009222377002808527, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00256311623311444, "adv_selected": 0.0009222377002808527 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012063480670753211, "strength": 0.00719132693465042, "strength_record": 0.00954459238911568, "adv_record": 0.01938250154569678, "adv_strength": 0.009876313789498688, "adv_strength_record": 0.013713459197021199, "adv_full": 0.011765162137959405, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011831079525318864, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013004017901500443, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.020325155808787732, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0029445254635079147, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006092783935677628, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014368560224586538, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02445617123583804, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0011431052498233475, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0017860789850760396, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013704159465911272, "adv_selected": 0.0017860789850760396 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0029918035739846696, "strength": 0.004332624691750163, "strength_record": 0.003744437910256848, "adv_record": 0.006740709032661, "adv_strength": 0.006386518366604289, "adv_strength_record": 0.007328069199312226, "adv_full": 0.009378586263491133, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006404642327408447, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010383862512349663, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00915548866387581, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004670152510285725, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009274455514313842, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0062035427613624655, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01295554702425871, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000781071913396012, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012851321384636622, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011491670599041225, "adv_selected": 0.0012851321384636622 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0807777001039554, "strength": 0.1263710900777059, "strength_record": 0.11146690209033683, "adv_record": 0.08184243869008144, "adv_strength": 0.11630907740810226, "adv_strength_record": 0.10602498438778843, "adv_full": 0.13408678231855684, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.11391365221400254, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10980688456079936, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10275100955940228, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.09786358470059137, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04310803219920991, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.17151851681977842, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08867858803629944, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1773621174876403, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.24964252465183928, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10709029599387866, "adv_selected": 0.24964252465183928 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.017666036157836223, "strength": 0.010628670000410671, "strength_record": 0.014138309005959016, "adv_record": 0.025876431540144327, "adv_strength": 0.013822077863337898, "adv_strength_record": 0.018686214388273618, "adv_full": 0.07345390890619861, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017110391350033352, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06875721228695315, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03970717934400465, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1721379505048054, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00958990810394095, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07522490944772826, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.028351803056396816, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.32981388303295933, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.11752999209826294, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.030730462112370658, "adv_selected": 0.11752999209826294 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.13218209324704985, "strength": 0.03323401889601102, "strength_record": 0.06813299253998173, "adv_record": 0.11884922756342381, "adv_strength": 0.036859094543816834, "adv_strength_record": 0.057742119966053454, "adv_full": 0.12451271349560492, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05238451517397119, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.1274690765727334, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06659462337316634, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.21189757177300259, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.06938795775589932, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.083884979441024, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08310616042622299, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0735879519088233, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.024962174804537093, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1099236365848089, "adv_selected": 0.024962174804537093 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007245710702469969, "strength": 0.00650894525233269, "strength_record": 0.00710179667121321, "adv_record": 0.01317354687713442, "adv_strength": 0.009064468249677896, "adv_strength_record": 0.011428294260014443, "adv_full": 0.010035603982287668, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010154343816260673, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01090532373354038, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0217302351171886, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007412181432803347, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009646049235359428, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009889942178055191, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013166546592786696, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0034420317133095047, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0038375305471766005, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0134094867165775, "adv_selected": 0.0038375305471766005 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006087170858680957, "strength": 0.020000157774013403, "strength_record": 0.012032517482104491, "adv_record": 0.011544765149081626, "adv_strength": 0.023811738054998678, "adv_strength_record": 0.02022420579818377, "adv_full": 0.029900705655756123, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020106280688963613, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03033924682156013, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.023159297438816687, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.017986702604783206, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011962784141973304, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.033600915286177827, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0332741765979223, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007520181263896828, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010621070483698637, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02566006230414616, "adv_selected": 0.010621070483698637 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008682738063739794, "strength": 0.024910931618364964, "strength_record": 0.016040450662121612, "adv_record": 0.015108622268471197, "adv_strength": 0.02876290646380774, "adv_strength_record": 0.024929167249615233, "adv_full": 0.03295384484586826, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.024921714393352196, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.031831064249036256, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02697537862900417, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.024461645741340677, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009544625489339218, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04685725489988549, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.025317499826918305, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03329892250309921, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07883459816589491, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01618609911823112, "adv_selected": 0.07883459816589491 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004207311195835328, "strength": 0.019228995867272055, "strength_record": 0.009887732109714003, "adv_record": 0.008727136150129888, "adv_strength": 0.023019652304683575, "adv_strength_record": 0.01804413563954123, "adv_full": 0.0047755433902861655, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018111059619544467, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00460104497651415, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010951466093250175, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0003636990369305022, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009709430329718747, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005082512992627603, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011333238882908651, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0004290106011014719, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004826226874251474, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006485983913702622, "adv_selected": 0.004826226874251474 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008307206266912004, "strength": 0.0012917695014948443, "strength_record": 0.0010575450393834542, "adv_record": 0.002553677508973084, "adv_strength": 0.00225467647836008, "adv_strength_record": 0.002740962220547709, "adv_full": 0.004758347211896505, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0022699800424820474, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005664855330370488, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0044135231688181885, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0018799450870395271, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001115082380202355, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005753989947457012, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009441309590233718, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00026054066647503393, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0007359332189236283, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003549356357499474, "adv_selected": 0.0007359332189236283 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.10281336981556005, "strength": 0.05873886596330286, "strength_record": 0.0824191667288054, "adv_record": 0.09825037569390367, "adv_strength": 0.06016587999373073, "adv_strength_record": 0.07405209579510555, "adv_full": 0.09160323806867592, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0703386024444868, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09902997568951603, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06262280461241446, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06546838450702434, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.14712405305765594, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04305676479470725, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05917007865523049, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.059662255824131795, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.022476384512843495, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10653034258756738, "adv_selected": 0.022476384512843495 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008682738063739794, "strength": 0.02083617218997194, "strength_record": 0.014557215282137763, "adv_record": 0.015108622268471197, "adv_strength": 0.024665635856783327, "adv_strength_record": 0.02260729099709958, "adv_full": 0.011192401040544645, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021593291505600028, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011846633639179874, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04370071849635519, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0003801627898670557, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010083109366938979, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015326915953919305, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02043802564592698, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013100633426403753, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012713657800222235, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0202300387073046, "adv_selected": 0.0012713657800222235 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004207311195835328, "strength": 0.009667419802661979, "strength_record": 0.006805621714498551, "adv_record": 0.008727136150129888, "adv_strength": 0.012739530701877418, "adv_strength_record": 0.01238429898132188, "adv_full": 0.004067833739710109, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010801333344584352, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004818450676773268, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00820855966895424, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000725777741164777, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006255289270726138, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004313444412721285, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02141785946491312, "adv_without_four_factors": 7.013672047286328e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012462966522359938, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0077742112147703825, "adv_selected": 0.0012462966522359938 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.022767293498978488, "strength": 0.04078245000289676, "strength_record": 0.03309925195881734, "adv_record": 0.03135893878092443, "adv_strength": 0.043956500997873835, "adv_strength_record": 0.04156942503334313, "adv_full": 0.017618832304641334, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.037752849248729965, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020200305434278122, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.020447914997249943, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011863495308950105, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04822041450803276, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.013836372632170127, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05418300811298752, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0007590458225548121, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008650264778847045, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03343422461038387, "adv_selected": 0.008650264778847045 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 9.459359339399934e-05, "strength": 2.3827186961048504e-05, "strength_record": 4.318594044741241e-05, "adv_record": 0.0004924721007621045, "adv_strength": 7.262906416452325e-05, "adv_strength_record": 0.0001787846614865516, "adv_full": 0.0001914149867206018, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0001078378762480894, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003085248022704016, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001968021971467739, "adv_without_prior_roster": 2.3241315590619098e-06, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00015802926361507312, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00022428702694946178, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0012413051800104255, "adv_without_four_factors": 5.325978373144017e-07, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 8.624451105350024e-07, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007945379473196932, "adv_selected": 8.624451105350024e-07 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002097451218355996, "strength": 0.014252854316443481, "strength_record": 0.006042956898719426, "adv_record": 0.00515069483752729, "adv_strength": 0.01779114395843871, "adv_strength_record": 0.012865026675205922, "adv_full": 0.014518303466143318, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01279666762239742, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013836055503401173, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.023705999257727355, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0040565358355190905, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004816136490566249, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01854699068434844, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012598663497248924, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010997622142175086, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.025108639453730215, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012527111887911366, "adv_selected": 0.025108639453730215 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006087170858680957, "strength": 0.01872080699872948, "strength_record": 0.01160810776997347, "adv_record": 0.011544765149081626, "adv_strength": 0.022495255519737238, "adv_strength_record": 0.01950552353987944, "adv_full": 0.010344284651639774, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017641402712385994, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012093824039151895, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.031162375412044748, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0009599298981942917, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011082358245908367, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014830309634827718, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02252582114993087, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0009604011875238097, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0027515152165858243, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.017203612475073016, "adv_selected": 0.0027515152165858243 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004207311195835328, "strength": 0.012540296579256618, "strength_record": 0.007838799417463571, "adv_record": 0.008727136150129888, "adv_strength": 0.015935752324546505, "adv_strength_record": 0.01427975466899236, "adv_full": 0.00608238924870228, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013662065410219328, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0065978651232200935, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014233685354321375, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008348218178078218, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0059253993555299965, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00862185437093106, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.022853338490807326, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0003262617965678453, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0018421901896361005, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009200807197307153, "adv_selected": 0.0018421901896361005 } } ] }, { "season": 2024, "champion": "BOS", "cutoffDate": "2024-02-01", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.737979469085683 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2317766498192393, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.8496297277272151 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2851788121473597, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.064405263961657, "record": 0.7061362277820749 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2745424229236235, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.24678265808649386, "record": 0.26564591653995245, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.14621705788711442, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2450920122135893, "prior_net_rating": 0.2633914954187829, "retained_minutes_share": 0.02254689018249324, "rotation_box_production": 0.14990424829709578, "star_box_production": 0.40517476402872965, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.18875004522245456, "efg_pct": 0.210476892405752, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1016973638158374, "turnover_rate": 0.030922378491004, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.11016921554171696, "oreb_pct": 0.2554736219435685, "dreb_pct": 0.22392798906103917, "ft_rate": 0.04370845484920515, "opp_ft_rate": -0.12396163268862945, "pace": -0.11092748945338851, "three_attempt_rate": 0.11472071794656538, "three_pct": -0.07545327159970258, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.2951408527551846, "opp_three_pct": -0.13450228481453247 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3692961562529335, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.5759942685104991, "record": 0.5616977614993641, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.5003221095747191, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.4726935718261537 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3234263484018687, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3042663060161079, "record": 0.30320855471753166, "prior_net_rating": 0.27364751617191035, "retained_minutes_share": 0.02449141856611192, "rotation_box_production": 0.15585903536019532, "star_box_production": 0.4088274046486181, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.18958142250335877, "efg_pct": 0.22398629059454442, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1670945813037666, "turnover_rate": 0.039903865013196774, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.15835646588841676, "oreb_pct": 0.25960399321724814, "dreb_pct": 0.25389574165779283, "ft_rate": 0.045999674624581884, "opp_ft_rate": -0.13501591613893346, "pace": -0.11669006228129862, "three_attempt_rate": 0.11219971118330406, "three_pct": -0.06642259964603583, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.2770899272013593, "opp_three_pct": -0.15288974466656308 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.399260977357266, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.5232299553105094, "record": 0.4717813629045863, "prior_net_rating": 0.37541551739249757, "retained_minutes_share": 0.014388232043585532 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5458366479811274, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.26532766905373706, "record": 0.28059773355399076, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.15889257024594822, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2541353527779246, "rotation_box_production": 0.187415213107954, "star_box_production": 0.427994206717422, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.18889959386364305, "efg_pct": 0.22259096607956402, "opp_efg_pct": -0.0986236208317893, "turnover_rate": 0.024702955899205695, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.10348433348990355, "oreb_pct": 0.2553428118896509, "dreb_pct": 0.25479749014219705, "ft_rate": 0.03894030220761714, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1333789217132294, "pace": -0.10842189099303816, "three_attempt_rate": 0.11723728392754912, "three_pct": -0.05833143596553294, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.2711413183633157, "opp_three_pct": -0.11697477414623944 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2966212009572375, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.8878755573890271, "record": 0.546804264210061, "rotation_box_production": 0.020119411032218933, "star_box_production": 0.6448922937066833, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2750462049589396 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.149303142812077, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.30638252487434386, "record": 0.32025669561685965, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.21828264759809532, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.23474633288609237, "prior_net_rating": 0.3429243321661108, "retained_minutes_share": 0.005325450849695035, "efg_pct": 0.30504296568652056, "opp_efg_pct": -0.11057175575324832, "turnover_rate": 0.025207776707698252, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08871615125363463, "oreb_pct": 0.2456562476882184, "dreb_pct": 0.24733001185716225, "ft_rate": 0.042065318411489916, "opp_ft_rate": -0.10692805186636972, "pace": -0.05149512245583584, "three_attempt_rate": 0.08318963275750682, "three_pct": -0.03989557122600098, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3157949323709504, "opp_three_pct": -0.12593004716629166 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.576623359745062, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4062659128358854, "record": 0.3995437485976174, "efg_pct": 0.39368242131055603, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1518829709018453, "turnover_rate": 0.028558145780835997, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13293562522364485, "oreb_pct": 0.24404135057312776, "dreb_pct": 0.28283684603192105, "ft_rate": 0.06104793525480583, "opp_ft_rate": -0.10665124089076383 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.532684165013273, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4953185509355022, "record": 0.7238962444627643, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.39592751951074456, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.6244201573086532, "prior_net_rating": 0.6908294210869133, "retained_minutes_share": 0.09139919919086771, "rotation_box_production": 0.03430053767090918, "star_box_production": 0.71404754083248, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.40896103038502407, "pace": -0.3730319898664269, "three_attempt_rate": 0.35485473721423033, "three_pct": -0.5874515834978933, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.7967571639302058, "opp_three_pct": -0.2182507308424323 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2531114958358525, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.8073843902260849, "record": 1.0151764855644625, "pace": -0.21314260049398015, "three_attempt_rate": 0.20123922060099725, "three_pct": -0.44085322730186977, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.7601045719558436, "opp_three_pct": 0.10947721876634572 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.311352333953605, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.23047769017260417, "record": 0.2512151962342775, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.14854151820903438, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.22245221299982093, "prior_net_rating": 0.22173231110114008, "retained_minutes_share": 0.007493487670440063, "rotation_box_production": 0.14799245474517134, "star_box_production": 0.39971624179317267, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.19084837710014266, "efg_pct": 0.20969454134657428, "opp_efg_pct": -0.08852055284061398, "turnover_rate": 0.04925673922798412, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.13102122008230577, "oreb_pct": 0.25269825449948286, "dreb_pct": 0.2086303333272222, "ft_rate": 0.06406343409141448, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1004125072021456 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.390419347736492, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 } } }, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.149303142812077, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2023 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666653, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 1.2675561913956912, "brier": 0.5640903471037272, "championProbability": 0.2815187597869555, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.0679305857904662, "brier": 0.4795161011204992, "championProbability": 0.3437190790882717, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.1184437517553902, "brier": 0.4985854794769052, "championProbability": 0.32678796229563617, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 1.5640561326114724, "brier": 0.6729250155454083, "championProbability": 0.20928545769631401, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.241542411579016, "brier": 0.5547313626495163, "championProbability": 0.2889382124209765, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.3741976430086849, "brier": 0.6047025652861414, "championProbability": 0.25304254483001853, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.149713339530188, "brier": 0.5018398913238097, "championProbability": 0.31672754963505695, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.275636811460322, "brier": 0.5667132239792164, "championProbability": 0.2792530800251076, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.2978594910221972, "brier": 0.567115543840438, "championProbability": 0.2731157745696257, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.6301504184461308, "brier": 0.6849918288645692, "championProbability": 0.19590010492122975, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.3038468054990373, "brier": 0.5702242260339934, "championProbability": 0.27148543010158005, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.9381646931530179, "brier": 0.8374082026274573, "championProbability": 0.1439679327914857, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.046068515389285, "brier": 0.45499397941419556, "championProbability": 0.35131623195298245, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.8762285167654364, "brier": 0.7675857160432846, "championProbability": 0.15316668337547656, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 0.2914086417537984, "brier": 0.07202061197449486, "championProbability": 0.7472102743050383, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 0.4579928407348022, "brier": 0.15324905461868196, "championProbability": 0.6325520047987064, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.784058547613678, "brier": 0.7489662941627678, "championProbability": 0.16795510832902621, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.9381646931530179, "brier": 0.8374082026274573, "championProbability": 0.1439679327914857, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0025961155068282464, "strength": 0.0021576117057424482, "strength_record": 0.0022667414365001577, "adv_record": 0.005424320898128306, "adv_strength": 0.003527174173286595, "adv_strength_record": 0.004545228470796101, "adv_full": 0.0049654169069409315, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003598078044421687, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0060081791272142086, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011384446276926818, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0052857266098158325, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004343054897194962, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0040856218479735605, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008486717321326623, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00024723461532701063, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0006341412406382947, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009660356652872602, "adv_selected": 0.004343054897194962 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0019450070837787813, "strength": 0.0037711933842888945, "strength_record": 0.00260808403453116, "adv_record": 0.004331076231408396, "adv_strength": 0.005729603168805467, "adv_strength_record": 0.005483910869519318, "adv_full": 0.0062141815338816785, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0047893706706740955, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006950566693929989, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013079744464228799, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0063728926712110535, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0036352979221796317, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007413287864326718, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010115974730134349, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0007379712132509062, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0015393070667759814, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007150343147230809, "adv_selected": 0.0036352979221796317 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.2815187597869555, "strength": 0.3437190790882717, "strength_record": 0.32678796229563617, "adv_record": 0.20928545769631401, "adv_strength": 0.2889382124209765, "adv_strength_record": 0.25304254483001853, "adv_full": 0.31672754963505695, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2792530800251076, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2731157745696257, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.19590010492122975, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.27148543010158005, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.1439679327914857, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.35131623195298245, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.15316668337547656, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.7472102743050383, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.6325520047987064, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.16795510832902621, "adv_selected": 0.1439679327914857 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00015401295579585018, "strength": 6.58708091015543e-05, "strength_record": 9.073348115502609e-05, "adv_record": 0.0005999289404251794, "adv_strength": 0.00017017513501871445, "adv_strength_record": 0.0003246479361857436, "adv_full": 0.00015966241105669034, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00020324176778813976, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0002315545373889174, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0014008906975894397, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0002303049901447949, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00015747973255467187, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00024233768087975356, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.001078754939420792, "adv_without_four_factors": 1.2863054995842895e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 1.449791253211477e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00032453506155047276, "adv_selected": 0.00015747973255467187 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004707684861889725, "strength": 0.002796691179017096, "strength_record": 0.0034989750849205676, "adv_record": 0.008626390874041065, "adv_strength": 0.004418956995793711, "adv_strength_record": 0.006248163102469587, "adv_full": 0.017063066802837687, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005017760216637922, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019991981237720825, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015451763092311256, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.015275388537953526, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0052531579994702605, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014452196966463594, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010153756502975023, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012123840172074487, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009258406211850657, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00944358355216747, "adv_selected": 0.0052531579994702605 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05065003299117091, "strength": 0.03155195211603664, "strength_record": 0.040323277488622154, "adv_record": 0.05496415993857436, "adv_strength": 0.03628001105142917, "adv_strength_record": 0.044534455611142006, "adv_full": 0.05314888941659962, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.042260379967512175, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.055756329154158804, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06769322732065138, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0414286674122626, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02321879029313032, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06983653358403842, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06377686945049832, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03884940487593415, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03100395570191441, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.050261249452350894, "adv_selected": 0.02321879029313032 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012554933738669163, "strength": 0.005443357879419029, "strength_record": 0.008086529018348559, "adv_record": 0.018530834649354528, "adv_strength": 0.007881460937571038, "adv_strength_record": 0.01189262526329641, "adv_full": 0.007945271169365765, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009145250578388452, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009376958479771503, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01878703897002884, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008947670723091331, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01533097719836624, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006912955368380671, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01095620280379443, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002125154718571488, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003821641274571059, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009350021769742029, "adv_selected": 0.01533097719836624 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07510187775885292, "strength": 0.04066509997094106, "strength_record": 0.056053842007993425, "adv_record": 0.07471827235580245, "adv_strength": 0.045228207630074735, "adv_strength_record": 0.057275821270260326, "adv_full": 0.09126466886864364, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.053249674425375, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09571842427590509, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06300435134996228, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.09753571597568753, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.23020250708566256, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.028687821773050647, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04971724636263212, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.05148867466420684, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012340944070609835, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1416264611751514, "adv_selected": 0.23020250708566256 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 4.5570571685516545e-05, "strength": 0.0001407764081457417, "strength_record": 7.233779383632484e-05, "adv_record": 0.00023219439192456045, "adv_strength": 0.0003292080308860705, "adv_strength_record": 0.0003227246496132168, "adv_full": 0.00021145274407675363, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00025397420552396164, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000291636385460635, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0011061113634988945, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0003663973573313017, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00024433159651789934, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00023203921180362037, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0018586039795999625, "adv_without_four_factors": 3.7538080152690236e-07, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 2.612728175649065e-06, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007548846284190625, "adv_selected": 0.00024433159651789934 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003848822316150743, "strength": 0.007130588055636031, "strength_record": 0.005106604287731656, "adv_record": 0.007372931685595483, "adv_strength": 0.00996518016005624, "adv_strength_record": 0.009360159480485472, "adv_full": 0.013477443591850675, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008416089174723121, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015585300937601175, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018732999287280686, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013679313687555088, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005184287031783226, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01791065022727736, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.020046319296750093, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0010666378985607437, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002523624897990595, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013840279625321172, "adv_selected": 0.005184287031783226 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004625190863072879, "strength": 0.009051815992370994, "strength_record": 0.0063333557374045625, "adv_record": 0.008508332757718656, "adv_strength": 0.012260427794433496, "adv_strength_record": 0.01117791205167514, "adv_full": 0.007264183462485409, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010674872680756271, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007260693533177214, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008021842450359917, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01312767903414036, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008645354790277207, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006148429685961591, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012003899807480869, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0017452603805405548, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0070985859533068876, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006379670639547327, "adv_selected": 0.008645354790277207 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0166573031650824, "strength": 0.013422142324754421, "strength_record": 0.014820915599633765, "adv_record": 0.02309979247426599, "adv_strength": 0.017264399991119565, "adv_strength_record": 0.02042390498398169, "adv_full": 0.0014358753642043662, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017355650143728227, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016646372953562064, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.019220907946351333, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002181795522583178, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006356846184939279, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0033113931597892683, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.023415846163105273, "adv_without_four_factors": 8.9135117429155e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.000398114898223376, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006927804893043826, "adv_selected": 0.006356846184939279 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07555542845870789, "strength": 0.07894828248733789, "strength_record": 0.0790092286980083, "adv_record": 0.0750697686358654, "adv_strength": 0.0804895087646942, "adv_strength_record": 0.07995702998966539, "adv_full": 0.037259083857005736, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07920105073281769, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03831902627249853, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.055600729676467425, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04562482883179669, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03408185718794796, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.052325954082599255, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07433408135715211, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004250720344482844, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.030304634917521247, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04393942448768189, "adv_selected": 0.03408185718794796 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006210001773779478, "strength": 0.004117112327542345, "strength_record": 0.004908111312949493, "adv_record": 0.010705054967888762, "adv_strength": 0.006183570289344464, "adv_strength_record": 0.00827597004842009, "adv_full": 0.015441026639143679, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006829583952190608, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01798675070401048, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015904084945010593, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01876830364204724, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015547218551400758, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008686757446466015, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016130235207339253, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0016933655941374236, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0019796196446716244, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.022898801907101834, "adv_selected": 0.015547218551400758 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00145719731884022, "strength": 0.0011304926504989514, "strength_record": 0.0012150058126441227, "adv_record": 0.0034581695431668506, "adv_strength": 0.002011591008336179, "adv_strength_record": 0.00274015641550291, "adv_full": 0.0026826837235957536, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002246206567843525, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0030418981477528927, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0118602488948705, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001928737062038771, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.000894274097617194, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004290152694417581, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004204379244394006, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0009287569081174866, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010641807717980175, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0026164059004053124, "adv_selected": 0.000894274097617194 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009462898022579972, "strength": 0.0035809687825619574, "strength_record": 0.005654362143833778, "adv_record": 0.014865580856809424, "adv_strength": 0.005477654100926163, "adv_strength_record": 0.008819797850251403, "adv_full": 0.009667218204339103, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006969367033866058, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01132272137154019, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01592064163455342, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010929693760223774, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004125366187266092, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011358714267345254, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01355505832568002, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013314387832800338, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004344977188100996, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008123798185332414, "adv_selected": 0.004125366187266092 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06847878013245648, "strength": 0.022391734699657377, "strength_record": 0.03939465358096628, "adv_record": 0.06953021386898375, "adv_strength": 0.026931727583022484, "adv_strength_record": 0.04127708949153577, "adv_full": 0.06398592807185272, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03435250023775882, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07568993174788866, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05463631452709308, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0724073158746664, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.11818991021287849, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.028212335612582445, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04994513740401448, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012157296317903505, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004463863869137671, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10290913629284434, "adv_selected": 0.11818991021287849 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.12054148721877037, "strength": 0.08212156543046899, "strength_record": 0.10211317086818197, "adv_record": 0.10804377753790503, "adv_strength": 0.0832930964789105, "adv_strength_record": 0.09455040871965098, "adv_full": 0.055661650798012795, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0970375544706424, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05672423798567787, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06019150340322976, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06964931576294958, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0442762054193429, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0654982262613376, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.13175164207387732, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005657416260038792, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02060600721853937, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.07938467265885274, "adv_selected": 0.0442762054193429 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0166573031650824, "strength": 0.030741912445818437, "strength_record": 0.022669292770379778, "adv_record": 0.02309979247426599, "adv_strength": 0.03546937991103544, "adv_strength_record": 0.030909306944692957, "adv_full": 0.07565711154623123, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0307662417285094, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0787525815614997, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03728991667060226, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.07488637543451987, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.024430987988733097, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0774849709343551, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.051623440057308366, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02820605568215972, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.035361833146126544, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.047734047515739945, "adv_selected": 0.024430987988733097 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.051613789972323756, "strength": 0.0685112983215895, "strength_record": 0.060586604877575084, "adv_record": 0.05577768275519273, "adv_strength": 0.07115999378888656, "adv_strength_record": 0.06601655927691287, "adv_full": 0.04798154529043541, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07021493696119237, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04450049858042249, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06445720700936414, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04563309660581814, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01607964413706587, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.10059091312289188, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08299221882075149, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010942520843585182, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06244602402276136, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04188129289892409, "adv_selected": 0.01607964413706587 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.09085446604374216, "strength": 0.15083619185920058, "strength_record": 0.12088439638709719, "adv_record": 0.08667356551696397, "adv_strength": 0.1412615082727203, "adv_strength_record": 0.1171646649134111, "adv_full": 0.05734826155601063, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12248839053934522, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.055148708608801854, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07222201369178327, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06438901246378433, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.15598236389169756, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04088391763832863, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04657225709031973, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04635506979505719, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.1001488975762254, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06402137415901066, "adv_selected": 0.15598236389169756 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009462898022579972, "strength": 0.01053196773627385, "strength_record": 0.009831891683071888, "adv_record": 0.014865580856809424, "adv_strength": 0.013984672613958329, "adv_strength_record": 0.01512543492030064, "adv_full": 0.009834427721484833, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013978426528704792, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010273037452469966, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.016949487193755636, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011760761096589451, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005075035177560762, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012586206543636748, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0269186029884525, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013082690089761479, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006028933541723304, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013685222125728572, "adv_selected": 0.005075035177560762 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04188010175959816, "strength": 0.05952716513343801, "strength_record": 0.05071765101723763, "adv_record": 0.04739319685680486, "adv_strength": 0.06297904099089005, "adv_strength_record": 0.05759526655887142, "adv_full": 0.03520342016840709, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05784430189515594, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03580593951754669, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06729930953620397, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02994603396670351, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.08470326087669051, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02624426805703688, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.029701639091564917, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.021921384583365625, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.016105564994660794, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.05133316154070985, "adv_selected": 0.08470326087669051 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.022100136449057513, "strength": 0.011712370259685325, "strength_record": 0.015945768295445036, "adv_record": 0.02879527136532633, "adv_strength": 0.015336855026708758, "adv_strength_record": 0.020865984815722875, "adv_full": 0.023620573390340443, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017895368678675635, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.027834026688409983, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03087914026800468, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.026753604930958862, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015197727176830276, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02362294593147715, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04008778543767739, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014754526919815195, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0048057150868082545, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03593725384383122, "adv_selected": 0.015197727176830276 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0005599142355616373, "strength": 0.00030524707002369076, "strength_record": 0.00038269262852653845, "adv_record": 0.0016407821001113286, "adv_strength": 0.0006449189692130572, "adv_strength_record": 0.0010517595147571702, "adv_full": 0.00101627815067733, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007773001919051478, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013116168020109475, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0032305095356502437, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012075987944705731, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006352439521777193, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0009113277084263503, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.001909215302934774, "adv_without_four_factors": 3.8514347549742286e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 5.614172165428193e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001335487818037789, "adv_selected": 0.0006352439521777193 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.023213989506430385, "strength": 0.009107061809515529, "strength_record": 0.014368651174662033, "adv_record": 0.02992036806724287, "adv_strength": 0.012325415901914204, "adv_strength_record": 0.018688307950437123, "adv_full": 0.02978428775958448, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01508972820790348, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03375918962538199, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03142876397114313, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03262385260619835, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02511927452753256, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.020802003151061628, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.035118595600728976, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006935792365515218, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008118498871691839, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0392336459524248, "adv_selected": 0.02511927452753256 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00013619782873110862, "strength": 0.0002394030541512175, "strength_record": 0.00016525504378190066, "adv_record": 0.0005451115982395864, "adv_strength": 0.0005221844636263334, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005952739759757062, "adv_full": 0.0005855167435284612, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004707508205745912, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000725643581212758, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0013390826214447623, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0011274867305923998, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0009157406823442064, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00033116948903530745, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.001721674632553611, "adv_without_four_factors": 1.1170757160516585e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 3.9207822133717474e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001160869383406046, "adv_selected": 0.0009157406823442064 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0010917307416226547, "strength": 0.003001434720586528, "strength_record": 0.0017322097738907839, "adv_record": 0.0027611928191340032, "adv_strength": 0.004698719203597274, "adv_strength_record": 0.004074607784714082, "adv_full": 0.0019111001730181601, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0035944987611276537, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00221052412495618, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01131466257340277, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0018220514632398418, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008183694528560982, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005810226687992368, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010801101936570003, "adv_without_four_factors": 4.560398576065394e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005091872200732115, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003193631845151019, "adv_selected": 0.0008183694528560982 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006210001773779478, "strength": 0.003103521312549725, "strength_record": 0.004245939742901346, "adv_record": 0.010705054967888762, "adv_strength": 0.004837267041889599, "adv_strength_record": 0.00718540570205646, "adv_full": 0.012231466966344045, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00566519671840253, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014307313611542057, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013036110566300777, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014365870516313039, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006883872095886101, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009578826527759642, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017043581119449893, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001130662479405913, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0024210658348308945, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016216293907915742, "adv_selected": 0.006883872095886101 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00010836597642378107, "strength": 0.0001760909853746189, "strength_record": 0.00012575592253324735, "adv_record": 0.00045614231784783706, "adv_strength": 0.0003998781008749301, "adv_strength_record": 0.0004748766076774717, "adv_full": 0.0002507573329877448, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003611740727475023, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00033431738906644886, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002656845140700121, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00025907783373247035, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005036308606099536, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0002315845203224061, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000812479576036731, "adv_without_four_factors": 5.481209974142616e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 7.809796246341269e-06, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007211806504786472, "adv_selected": 0.0005036308606099536 } } ] }, { "season": 2026, "champion": "NYK", "cutoffDate": "2026-02-01", "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.8401528346927833 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1650045980984625, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.968557498155195 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1808151720905253, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.1545061053561256, "record": 0.7217063304429276 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.18450794493213, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.26901923299201935, "record": 0.2802932569319001, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.15994832851204815, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.27403562969301076, "prior_net_rating": 0.295027179053274, "retained_minutes_share": 0.006346580076687298, "rotation_box_production": 0.1512017054409535, "star_box_production": 0.37864068021636205, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.21850979618120953, "efg_pct": 0.20518533063957992, "opp_efg_pct": -0.11410209190830012, "turnover_rate": 0.01667166871904085, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.06961282550398673, "oreb_pct": 0.2702553146177213, "dreb_pct": 0.22541278233490947, "ft_rate": 0.041811498574451184, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15926827387124007, "pace": -0.12277176013639239, "three_attempt_rate": 0.17197691915263438, "three_pct": -0.08428091770945234, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.337524699138248, "opp_three_pct": -0.1463781931212635 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.247337874580659, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.6118395065692581, "record": 0.5533752318770765, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.5730394546783195, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.5142084759869459 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.218647394707714, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.33581011264635663, "record": 0.3230029399783666, "prior_net_rating": 0.3086230958247289, "retained_minutes_share": 0.0067808969881907105, "rotation_box_production": 0.15633432489910162, "star_box_production": 0.3796166408583763, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2207997923220788, "efg_pct": 0.21876915665977334, "opp_efg_pct": -0.18989943308552806, "turnover_rate": 0.02632193034900482, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.12214375082121164, "oreb_pct": 0.27581899380430897, "dreb_pct": 0.25902667425498804, "ft_rate": 0.043462108346397105, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17415336712743792, "pace": -0.1308775465842178, "three_attempt_rate": 0.1727940922551576, "three_pct": -0.07508292074431529, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3208943147346947, "opp_three_pct": -0.16763682015721043 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2891208287237594, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.5557124743991164, "record": 0.4905211074773286, "prior_net_rating": 0.4129187872060487, "retained_minutes_share": 0.008079381576209712 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.454268025027628, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.29639969922770726, "record": 0.6637320749051226, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.0673402892457707, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.5741927013226683, "rotation_box_production": 0.23825987407471744, "star_box_production": 0.780398307410661, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.48356889911847384, "efg_pct": 0.6708130510997925, "opp_efg_pct": 0.11968231685737213, "turnover_rate": -0.023982055989196463, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.09827075643156552, "oreb_pct": 0.7817964735694775, "dreb_pct": 0.6079813971115001, "ft_rate": 0.09805190083435479, "opp_ft_rate": -0.47483990007724175, "pace": -0.38458838545077817, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4023474815112904, "three_pct": -0.522562013466144, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.7066619738510085, "opp_three_pct": -0.37200529680561095 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1008167480032345, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.033290873047227, "record": 0.5656239343883906, "rotation_box_production": 0.024605714716397314, "star_box_production": 0.5453974175083103, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.3354306497045284 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1281892978461707, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3233768390929419, "record": 0.33172295288654496, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.2267132401028256, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.26111726315463707, "prior_net_rating": 0.36830556250566476, "retained_minutes_share": 0.0005076693747053939, "efg_pct": 0.2981283636734304, "opp_efg_pct": -0.12178175598971329, "turnover_rate": 0.0045083674869772624, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.05012054155086755, "oreb_pct": 0.25087755328370664, "dreb_pct": 0.24233017433649556, "ft_rate": 0.035417209797282356, "opp_ft_rate": -0.13755936535330548, "pace": -0.05753684442701033, "three_attempt_rate": 0.13459172097479752, "three_pct": -0.05244587721494337, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.35200743462720263, "opp_three_pct": -0.13668243977844785 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4235678753094847, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4367309502704632, "record": 0.4133430744206778, "efg_pct": 0.39082882338534225, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17281476786476635, "turnover_rate": 0.0043925258382517905, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.08022398533406973, "oreb_pct": 0.2515025001564516, "dreb_pct": 0.27983581432509597, "ft_rate": 0.04778304333996835, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15506726674835053 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.467038600188489, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.5144709202833216, "record": 0.7491055675538386, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.4167360068352114, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.6426186058285964, "prior_net_rating": 0.743863430809253, "retained_minutes_share": 0.07035657587973057, "rotation_box_production": 0.030821454032059395, "star_box_production": 0.6990412552358878, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.45054501560733756, "pace": -0.39782512484644966, "three_attempt_rate": 0.4107625473077808, "three_pct": -0.6106215429128171, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.8341289855120155, "opp_three_pct": -0.2358888063751766 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.056941210427647, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.8769199525170877, "record": 1.0700303611387851, "pace": -0.23540308694066933, "three_attempt_rate": 0.2768061822462108, "three_pct": -0.49390333041092377, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.7923098390159562, "opp_three_pct": 0.10678123386646018 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1260163846317246, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.25825619657688786, "record": 0.26362518858780615, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.17142031638411226, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2519424626417693, "prior_net_rating": 0.2578350387546991, "retained_minutes_share": -0.014752900110612865, "rotation_box_production": 0.1499953253645137, "star_box_production": 0.3535299733418888, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.22439804896644377, "efg_pct": 0.21026273664649683, "opp_efg_pct": -0.10150392360338932, "turnover_rate": 0.03695455613520147, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.07890870391023945, "oreb_pct": 0.2697803143438951, "dreb_pct": 0.20796043443566214, "ft_rate": 0.057211315146131037, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14827510373278105 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 2001, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3297832677242107, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 } } }, "selection": { "id": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "validationLogLoss": 2.05657166304029, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2008, "validationEnd": 2024 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666661, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 3.3631991071984824, "brier": 1.1175465932723028, "championProbability": 0.03462431468371893, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 3.4496730535348297, "brier": 1.357865367214891, "championProbability": 0.031756017198560145, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.3580843082830003, "brier": 1.234400321319661, "championProbability": 0.03480186477033145, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 3.158292904052943, "brier": 1.0442456616962223, "championProbability": 0.042498227744402636, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 3.257634223788222, "brier": 1.2439331123416923, "championProbability": 0.038479323889113674, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.1323305592573147, "brier": 1.1234712244677088, "championProbability": 0.04361602897022352, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.132063385034094, "brier": 0.9019841408787406, "championProbability": 0.11859233956319848, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 3.1098664893248764, "brier": 1.1724215516464136, "championProbability": 0.044606910441459105, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.086813178907389, "brier": 0.868103205561952, "championProbability": 0.12408193333115991, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 3.0215055266224997, "brier": 1.0356475708530273, "championProbability": 0.04872780210748856, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.7950962227034128, "brier": 0.913132516624975, "championProbability": 0.1661114678833036, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.8490437410576854, "brier": 1.057154943378101, "championProbability": 0.05789966147969418, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.328986857862383, "brier": 0.9653871197845624, "championProbability": 0.09739437146253802, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.5505317734635478, "brier": 0.9213748855034062, "championProbability": 0.07804015528131199, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 3.771827014278163, "brier": 1.627270989584934, "championProbability": 0.02300998528871536, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.9729416693040283, "brier": 1.6722572259584045, "championProbability": 0.018817995316078723, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.4714664832652895, "brier": 0.9430423724955649, "championProbability": 0.08446090762986208, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 3.3580843082830003, "brier": 1.234400321319661, "championProbability": 0.03480186477033145, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0032344529457242243, "strength": 0.003058051608240191, "strength_record": 0.0031612852153259513, "adv_record": 0.006430397677087244, "adv_strength": 0.004832882778656366, "adv_strength_record": 0.006159790815355894, "adv_full": 0.0028035519591219625, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004766326015897675, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032578525933779153, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011236633527349483, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00011666054591571418, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003325318987983508, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004765231081950151, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01030496846057912, "adv_without_four_factors": 4.588124306818061e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00017095100791963158, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004361642565812282, "adv_selected": 0.0031612852153259513 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00016455298664785892, "strength": 0.00023811082165021603, "strength_record": 0.00019076135725046097, "adv_record": 0.0005996229584802983, "adv_strength": 0.000502776521047343, "adv_strength_record": 0.0006442518768439366, "adv_full": 0.0005825125890352749, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003937794714547512, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0007664366843944364, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0020596378738151453, "adv_without_prior_roster": 5.04782454745679e-05, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006140825980588316, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0005274357484138167, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0023562777731812225, "adv_without_four_factors": 7.50877221610474e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 1.6721812253484587e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010778185951530028, "adv_selected": 0.00019076135725046097 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03462431468371893, "strength": 0.04721702102634628, "strength_record": 0.04296733452996373, "adv_record": 0.042498227744402636, "adv_strength": 0.05469491107385921, "adv_strength_record": 0.05360582705928642, "adv_full": 0.08772975097338995, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.058572384571341646, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08675425785415096, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07671490630036863, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05203925868112486, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.031639810744635746, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.15162756062721805, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05968339228766376, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.07631554232247348, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0700108112204936, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04022341180793626, "adv_selected": 0.04296733452996373 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0020223013564574367, "strength": 0.0070026180131604835, "strength_record": 0.0039054106524901515, "adv_record": 0.004423574975109933, "adv_strength": 0.01007354981518138, "adv_strength_record": 0.008183113465554752, "adv_full": 0.008920158428421879, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00792655412543528, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009764620959157897, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007083918627517672, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006859071438095716, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004953839005321042, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010715927922435947, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03770395957393209, "adv_without_four_factors": 4.6716793741938785e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0004317823672484045, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01317155280711973, "adv_selected": 0.0039054106524901515 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004343832082391719, "strength": 0.0013644289797869933, "strength_record": 0.0023770468406127993, "adv_record": 0.008133103859623009, "adv_strength": 0.00236316317010615, "adv_strength_record": 0.004439693178810033, "adv_full": 0.005297926017637351, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003197915180117484, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0070381688718294455, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009633477894018002, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007923259848435074, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004253865893748367, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006016806054508022, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019344878993178643, "adv_without_four_factors": 5.109592042430337e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 9.735214279961711e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008861121827796924, "adv_selected": 0.0023770468406127993 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01735130149016005, "strength": 0.013140434078758674, "strength_record": 0.015551627491635935, "adv_record": 0.024510977685424633, "adv_strength": 0.017599748487954533, "adv_strength_record": 0.02221617620697149, "adv_full": 0.023048033289440887, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019205084520901937, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.025070510463665593, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04885515961856835, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003393475998137438, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01462368498908182, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.030723329070440925, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03316324333462599, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00288018043700339, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003984039640259574, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03109208481698139, "adv_selected": 0.015551627491635935 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0009067540695399992, "strength": 0.001032454488278967, "strength_record": 0.000955360111680389, "adv_record": 0.0023349797029414807, "adv_strength": 0.0018456798290557215, "adv_strength_record": 0.0023541876142103846, "adv_full": 0.0016708274389488093, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0015573788602935704, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0022077564092218642, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006839995376337727, "adv_without_prior_roster": 7.139516868954019e-05, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0018952110791137888, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0021182185026264585, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0068691399855363875, "adv_without_four_factors": 2.3191277628258665e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 1.5627124901496763e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003543896747209879, "adv_selected": 0.000955360111680389 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0728724474827869, "strength": 0.01903095936800101, "strength_record": 0.038100399461878966, "adv_record": 0.07687906513331041, "adv_strength": 0.024439973084962898, "adv_strength_record": 0.04216996835382852, "adv_full": 0.01494302999792926, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04040296882837054, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017308321960650557, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05015388633534461, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013246924755321771, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02650624151737182, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03477276121650123, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05376117527992554, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.000882965796986926, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0019135790827694498, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019062051105631275, "adv_selected": 0.038100399461878966 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.21746240765328972, "strength": 0.050722859688772395, "strength_record": 0.10927349033088495, "adv_record": 0.18366914530882847, "adv_strength": 0.05828027731102246, "adv_strength_record": 0.0987850497865463, "adv_full": 0.08283436438335263, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07777253743797798, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08692424713159298, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07031706155800521, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05147484490487352, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.12539421756775473, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.054568241385419, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06677058070431158, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.040506333745280544, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0338383004915348, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.09167861616191968, "adv_selected": 0.10927349033088495 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009389051431423526, "strength": 0.013333811389773206, "strength_record": 0.011619436479157662, "adv_record": 0.015028205906721855, "adv_strength": 0.017829162397480367, "adv_strength_record": 0.018477526832474143, "adv_full": 0.014495526457747317, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01665060364951354, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0157761358100772, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.029068471729118507, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0025679668731514674, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010635738726932409, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.022076613294739613, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.026840560371369095, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014089065042779622, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00167445152077638, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.015311152817465352, "adv_selected": 0.011619436479157662 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.042466667993771016, "strength": 0.050308996044656204, "strength_record": 0.049088617293523824, "adv_record": 0.050003488823398556, "adv_strength": 0.05785852722155992, "adv_strength_record": 0.059052020850743535, "adv_full": 0.09303264634306167, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06028907791088947, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09691761496974842, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.060643818713471055, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10379518465941497, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.06425276045583762, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06863310991253004, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09764619719929271, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005204422229044809, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003515464040349915, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.14882029007223646, "adv_selected": 0.049088617293523824 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00013836597100189016, "strength": 0.00016555673697801738, "strength_record": 0.0001445262466773949, "adv_record": 0.0005222942679211224, "adv_strength": 0.00036429800861718145, "adv_strength_record": 0.000505219375144726, "adv_full": 0.00036503706166446376, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003089692004093679, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005227837210928242, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0035387033159914186, "adv_without_prior_roster": 2.6800474243408654e-06, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.000334884109007654, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0004914660022499517, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0012655388842086179, "adv_without_four_factors": 4.749010957512486e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 1.989446914223505e-06, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0007302376071329691, "adv_selected": 0.0001445262466773949 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003112508732251385, "strength": 0.0037726436566362835, "strength_record": 0.0034688852716051968, "adv_record": 0.006236527901291545, "adv_strength": 0.005821780894506353, "adv_strength_record": 0.006788405982794496, "adv_full": 0.014265936818502113, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005767314056346028, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017379575724357152, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018499482218998033, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002637437712770006, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008952260720605095, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012022531006468738, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013942791783682398, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0019383796057407523, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0007994038346849037, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014492879456222303, "adv_selected": 0.0034688852716051968 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030632397276537607, "strength": 0.0036301525060705143, "strength_record": 0.010356338139248616, "adv_record": 0.03854722574114989, "adv_strength": 0.005626428156183898, "adv_strength_record": 0.013593262017317859, "adv_full": 0.03001259613382783, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009945479223326018, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03814405084258587, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.022922655527257203, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04452845335731599, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.027415154091952085, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018812128265115306, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03894452889076412, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0032274534251971157, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0021983559414054414, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04028182812128099, "adv_selected": 0.010356338139248616 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008426394241298108, "strength": 0.0015759641394914505, "strength_record": 0.0011540992316993266, "adv_record": 0.0022024910437867793, "adv_strength": 0.0026852484845045223, "adv_strength_record": 0.0028667228174251752, "adv_full": 0.004137765494940667, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0021187755649379305, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004874023402489081, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01100926372696804, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00033897167434198446, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010695765913386688, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008676161415324787, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007502409860563127, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00021291378206779704, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003349992203968592, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0037569290265163473, "adv_selected": 0.0011540992316993266 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006906635698731627, "strength": 0.009476856393147891, "strength_record": 0.00834470846817445, "adv_record": 0.0117673965223102, "adv_strength": 0.01317261389470771, "adv_strength_record": 0.014056741013395041, "adv_full": 0.00627386708103688, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011277360920864683, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006773548207477346, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01949519334884212, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0004734899788325713, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0057052254081536155, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01276206546913788, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.020379556580236085, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00014318983623782963, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0007800709374374898, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009124293708816842, "adv_selected": 0.00834470846817445 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0009575358149207611, "strength": 0.0007109889263259473, "strength_record": 0.0008046682026064932, "adv_record": 0.0024385650875514806, "adv_strength": 0.0013259780265690241, "adv_strength_record": 0.0019724464229596036, "adv_full": 0.010824189231392186, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013353798552058513, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014894081033166057, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0077637026484853044, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013795331097018178, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010653360954351989, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004538066224107201, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007328211950109844, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006632211853327488, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 6.241302308361252e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010873577817147198, "adv_selected": 0.0008046682026064932 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03206582321988456, "strength": 0.03147303893407082, "strength_record": 0.033365048082630244, "adv_record": 0.0399773619568696, "adv_strength": 0.03817519817234169, "adv_strength_record": 0.042384742504527735, "adv_full": 0.03398407118000081, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0375124930244073, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03853599485734744, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.053756892557802145, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006991438093596148, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03641490836866923, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.041044485842029764, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07562135081390894, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0016144421217457168, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001494630411336885, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.059651498384907464, "adv_selected": 0.033365048082630244 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00011793884173771873, "strength": 0.00031015627603525484, "strength_record": 0.0001866402229324832, "adv_record": 0.0004598913553498098, "adv_strength": 0.0006355451034830319, "adv_strength_record": 0.0006661185320317145, "adv_full": 0.0012812277892144627, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00047600040120532, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016012693388794122, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0018088378252765728, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00016017182247731943, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008785675385482951, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008040188995022354, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.001637124702140371, "adv_without_four_factors": 2.7397157163882564e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 4.694708962499243e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0013858048624434869, "adv_selected": 0.0001866402229324832 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03462431468371893, "strength": 0.031756017198560145, "strength_record": 0.03480186477033145, "adv_record": 0.042498227744402636, "adv_strength": 0.038479323889113674, "adv_strength_record": 0.04361602897022352, "adv_full": 0.11859233956319848, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.044606910441459105, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12408193333115991, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04872780210748856, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1661114678833036, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.05789966147969418, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.09739437146253802, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07804015528131199, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02300998528871536, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.018817995316078723, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.08446090762986208, "adv_selected": 0.03480186477033145 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.3490976064311687, "strength": 0.6398694263248206, "strength_record": 0.5292127946473916, "adv_record": 0.2677819514115093, "adv_strength": 0.5513884304106721, "adv_strength_record": 0.42783093564576036, "adv_full": 0.29233347737039816, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.4888569652809476, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.24058131585587655, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.3211484365904315, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10789931356097207, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.3456681006228592, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.335548890684002, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.17227377380369194, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.8153384070720381, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.8386019892419921, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.21774457410675618, "adv_selected": 0.5292127946473916 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008293009858368002, "strength": 0.004443388939345819, "strength_record": 0.006100112091616049, "adv_record": 0.013613331135763471, "adv_strength": 0.006730666405030488, "adv_strength_record": 0.01003877827413597, "adv_full": 0.0024137838685644795, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0075208376286763105, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002777852622088045, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01599387256950437, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00015915751189670785, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0045402074651553865, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0036764494004332734, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013799324792777748, "adv_without_four_factors": 5.407150876836157e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00026617767091237945, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00675165770330461, "adv_selected": 0.006100112091616049 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01326313784000508, "strength": 0.004540261407853035, "strength_record": 0.007756881415532391, "adv_record": 0.01978847056938468, "adv_strength": 0.0068605903237531005, "adv_strength_record": 0.011756078795214132, "adv_full": 0.004770211428817059, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008843720118637157, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005559163422432502, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01162087627972562, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0006300039236915393, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0105513604508968, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003969656384889184, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011669589992400564, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00019890047068842363, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005565833875275533, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007338907364516056, "adv_selected": 0.007756881415532391 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02846644582903478, "strength": 0.015996723260584312, "strength_record": 0.021975013071564683, "adv_record": 0.03636002460781886, "adv_strength": 0.02095233339838718, "adv_strength_record": 0.028724332567984203, "adv_full": 0.01563902011129038, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023921052053080802, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01680745861755487, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.024407181626746308, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004723861420947876, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.025394876938907702, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015058169022919267, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.022894126157622305, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0022051980888959737, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0033303644831261794, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016457859732063367, "adv_selected": 0.021975013071564683 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0031753845365939636, "strength": 0.001965638693884145, "strength_record": 0.0024772885849544805, "adv_record": 0.0063366785497027305, "adv_strength": 0.0032662589121757258, "adv_strength_record": 0.004867136430458205, "adv_full": 0.004344123024990585, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0034836300099690396, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005184575418675409, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009311460728973367, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0007864574629690748, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00458901855264568, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004208544895403653, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007994089396594762, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0003227855947218321, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003027560387503078, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005809032514909733, "adv_selected": 0.0024772885849544805 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 9.381973099662928e-05, "strength": 7.674523591722399e-05, "strength_record": 7.949004568834697e-05, "adv_record": 0.0003832709506003961, "adv_strength": 0.0001842717464898966, "adv_strength_record": 0.00030003357827159007, "adv_full": 0.00041842459289722944, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00017532609148871743, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006206255798965519, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0023945648936419023, "adv_without_prior_roster": 5.5384243323145626e-06, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004376313237870748, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0003305443843587936, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0009076539060318709, "adv_without_four_factors": 4.472010797104168e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 1.5167023525700713e-06, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009005917157760748, "adv_selected": 7.949004568834697e-05 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06564542356913368, "strength": 0.037078676294610556, "strength_record": 0.051610490923607207, "adv_record": 0.07074187171231672, "adv_strength": 0.044145580200253456, "adv_strength_record": 0.05773390102166593, "adv_full": 0.11162424080301868, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05155632966981748, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.1143566273841512, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03685092281410914, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.4333636763028199, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.15779938930342868, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04188125221287226, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09095851484435488, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.021307451124930633, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.013089833270557953, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1314017589289867, "adv_selected": 0.051610490923607207 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01735130149016005, "strength": 0.006554429561554348, "strength_record": 0.010746582205638233, "adv_record": 0.024510977685424633, "adv_strength": 0.009499863667336936, "adv_strength_record": 0.015474556197186818, "adv_full": 0.01274161120723869, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011094549694614552, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01468197418421251, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015561560158143065, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.007287339565026062, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013046624788432949, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011307481152166336, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01771975488288965, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0023452545856703175, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0036049032355602553, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010836872322426592, "adv_selected": 0.010746582205638233 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0002589301966902176, "strength": 0.00011091217867363125, "strength_record": 0.00015853471876972866, "adv_record": 0.0008604082044534921, "adv_strength": 0.00025540808086520054, "adv_strength_record": 0.0004989504370909326, "adv_full": 0.0005520479400334857, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00033548880595301125, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000733143723329146, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0016964466711491123, "adv_without_prior_roster": 3.5289073829066674e-05, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00047624113609192687, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0007709162004441094, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0018373948042628054, "adv_without_four_factors": 8.830629125077163e-06, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 3.813434510432139e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0006655602558146765, "adv_selected": 0.00015853471876972866 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00011869667902311908, "strength": 4.2677828015460516e-05, "strength_record": 6.526389492687345e-05, "adv_record": 0.00046224377706421884, "adv_strength": 0.00010953053412262313, "adv_strength_record": 0.0002380033757865069, "adv_full": 6.770142088626861e-05, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00012880738646011368, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00010407902536066893, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0008851768365518007, "adv_without_prior_roster": 3.640984981088665e-07, "adv_add_player_availability": 7.817858963420967e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00015756625925413147, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0008397347088517146, "adv_without_four_factors": 1.52459059575643e-07, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 1.8559518469403069e-06, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00013158941585434956, "adv_selected": 6.526389492687345e-05 } } ] } ], "selectionAudit": [ { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5892273823078427 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8377153186428858 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6896790639790837 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2898166437238405 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.26212228888819 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5611333833232592 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5280701545165662 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2605656969300374 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3374651224710488 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4951946394658493 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2599095860378426 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1634739841086343 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.618308178825876 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.883466433695392 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8591400907849818 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.042551610648573 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8406522429799803 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9584825767193873 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.781287849146545 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.020940369778041 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.123452231857295 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.371817088498092 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1600923801870144 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.159455092718982 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.292358899857849 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.19782527064937 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.2316430091484913 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.276045899962235 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0343592018187833 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5520692788914336 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1089194393736697 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.924891908839103 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.7022288069446598 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.022839287825807 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.124298630752434 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.09535842520511 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 10.842211323575706 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.839188122500436 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.096827332481478 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0983950058405996 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.0718411033144175 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7725253785115087 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.458954672040609 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.127343699602725 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.486426044206101 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.096975965109088 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.696816453772891 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0581262952761863 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3976051260183027 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9701724355805599 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.484618196781953 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1311880505651883 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 15.946200129139172 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.109295743217413 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7763752865559272 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0540715667904488 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.1082406271355327 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 0.9470108239535071 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 0.9361330875836869 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.845339856827063 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0118169506422774 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.681231430865044 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.277142623588523 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.124904010460201 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.168253240653089 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6619210341365793 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2661000724027125 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2281374121020763 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0658402115035566 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.415944448825096 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1610176593045702 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.403718042342796 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8164623548454943 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.681801393114417 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9178345100319314 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.497780771482615 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3970762643387915 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.431610815561434 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.076134266189248 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.638130216480561 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.852939993003481 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.685735114040515 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.967859123538366 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.102993221698704 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9672074279720464 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.266219030893468 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.078735159765797 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.210036101007876 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.931953017372801 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.807791805427053 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9730480212973465 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.5591801576367077 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.995101778361619 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.502393733091747 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.066565541187158 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.384900119510036 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.676203403485485 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6299605646873414 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.974133417931294 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8327367864779425 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.6534524856908237 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5087871025309236 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0577095287584415 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.7981410570747234 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7948347410232697 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.675689376329026 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.978709905427846 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.63844498939793 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.4686647137918647 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.774720314157253 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.196905193124992 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.7695876607581016 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7907219993350725 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.511555869499502 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8665315443810346 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.6790653875414667 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.135399577792348 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.85833794819706 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5939588765610102 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.806532674068543 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5689892580825107 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2505016744296418 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9374665173663388 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.100233018692788 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.674914985398969 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.261071392645127 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9527793542433007 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8971021083487043 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.358142196166714 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1348383371070008 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.9944485123098518 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5564299197241662 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9643424493655428 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.717896046634577 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9606918604397556 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8783227064575818 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2246099406755073 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.038155054924223 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3150907940039016 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.680579486939 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0185715271574214 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7741047753528556 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8881907100237207 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8189844988530706 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1491590495577997 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.020798072388233 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0376540457962666 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.656831100172966 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.097744044525151 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7931816923457853 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.5570905521135185 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.4126188232102317 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3616926586544613 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0202923304758467 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6925900760428204 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2099693907594462 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9361606055859935 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7869869208721068 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.402003570579505 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.1712031341556552 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.287444948296767 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0029925373155315 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.188600086269343 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5696124574712944 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9235541464608596 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7887299486376147 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3904163030834238 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5123814311208443 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1860067572662714 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.056929630651223 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.055497749162289 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3685789859336808 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1402716578769887 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.764103363952185 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.3218655760058204 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.851615464816436 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.55518911313473 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8798055647691085 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8020823460578197 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9186303055839247 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2947638451768784 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.649946762123065 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.428275014705261 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1892450421472978 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.33554678527235 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.522681961505332 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.244673970437682 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0185540134654882 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.249883556720635 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 14.878684827150703 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.813863616239711 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.4936465848447074 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1236270936046897 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.5025410573784566 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.4037678372047213 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.134776094289217 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2244855148068123 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 15.175232760585155 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.602586714797529 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.4096759715382166 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1228296301697114 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.4680286358866512 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2317533287921605 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0154850577724646 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2161744744086844 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 12.57100789760029 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.648507877056791 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.5122376141283174 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.13904845951289 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.5926232111819236 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.341820003859597 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.065500215943566 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2033069423451654 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 11.71873162832452 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.614084515742536 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.418912982830194 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.138664903528965 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.202366044147467 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.621037025909402 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.3195986385263474 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1877094674676885 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.095918665757372 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.6457159431532924 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1212301807747673 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1339046626528946 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.699924850706226 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.197140409404807 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0035178457804372 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2076308334908186 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 7.490939830698896 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.172933510154107 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.52953289596888 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.14258962419833 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.043632614441498 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.7419030409814034 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.3024812330676974 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.1337421548887936 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2373294160998736 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.696215697103813 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.252744204369307 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.172220192240819 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2650237106979145 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.69684968410591 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.24976262087492 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.082726899887328 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.1401156857134493 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4867463481887215 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1327139794872774 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.7540811437364452 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1834792733355657 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.031727313865707 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.814059531948419 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.155866813160063 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.167912240355681 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.404377723353457 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.033866959136597 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5267021413645016 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1509349354884097 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0723551126271453 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.870845060364546 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.741193195790947 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8185866104048518 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.212843126524493 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.001424468967567 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.904256326959623 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.032328147901165 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3052767216353827 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9046706052907276 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.4498854826791026 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4683072919084912 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8665069152003584 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.869053088166496 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.4716293302418413 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9836247396625655 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5167482739586715 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.020058834590041 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.309072508395333 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.057885815108438 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.740740677523362 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.080424445368764 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5984310634434 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9740098645000481 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8677417546205177 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8232072480329062 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.443862748983826 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5631103906076493 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.972488063017715 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2677104023168018 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.184943041268616 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0722152850010906 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0349467833248003 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.699690887726765 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.021110400333763 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.1178643290795556 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.999894729594872 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.6266782952207306 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.534325812720931 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.691021278084684 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.237443950456788 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.3671619285544656 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.109979061619423 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.890487310432897 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2651811421185037 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.130604801287764 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.944996644379338 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7072382001903024 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.137730746068378 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3215328215343343 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2344707538826984 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8053688174436586 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.860371268848843 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.3915495717307294 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2010383751332747 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.812249624990118 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0463036480005568 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.6232821547985696 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.269984667478863 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7625923192777897 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.893126594132208 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.374601618385286 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1472949932150818 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.695238134056151 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.045183314754983 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.506093581453195 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2275356388916903 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7752275218397497 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9038785614073546 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.159546957237673 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.059321551799665 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7955979750578726 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.044812926093529 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0114673088669006 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5283005313038256 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8154038067544906 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.898093650056058 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.174906649492047 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.03693735131844 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8128068656587732 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0470071196276143 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7470917419929675 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2234359899686558 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.760725317087034 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.886758336175969 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.1203439700237534 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3039890069402595 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6844324239029205 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.080236039578036 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.112396388716246 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.5897118240642194 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0005697295863407 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.881633127884222 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.836178660535137 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.6221465332798903 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.1941938647985366 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.759445414965561 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.5660025923722376 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.226158620590355 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3274573325237555 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.131146433326342 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.192533263257686 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5750210567497698 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2064704193670925 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.9919437415677286 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8809732428292203 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8104398480376735 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1678791531833044 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5137164749261336 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1511750125494784 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.625832068551757 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.574288378321416 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.60177744549542 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.124093840400467 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.844559776296062 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1017106298750825 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0440980894005387 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.089692820577592 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6000434094327114 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.586533126685616 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3185702531929486 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2190054757808952 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.381203656648918 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0114138655570404 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.969452689757324 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2776630048897075 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7555295794382657 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.66807362413391 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.251763823576761 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0055200341415915 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.857057948875949 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.734562158670033 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8442627874675317 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8415508231593538 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.202183161899081 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8900603095519792 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.779227416255243 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.4829799853153793 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5225773771651427 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.994060984003143 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5605425747391797 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.497260361666041 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8448983888647466 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.667599437953766 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.69280526476688 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7810797700362757 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0221573376143596 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.227404147065424 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9971196075660615 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4748865111655822 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6840160107770172 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5140806396201256 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 4.266879123585541 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.0671372344024066 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.2221415086401297 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8022013765151035 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8808429996871439 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.388975903946778 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1675103909342157 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3959939494048976 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5491747863299483 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.234342321771684 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.133405290822712 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.410623756032868 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5339862154608186 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.011249118637136 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9595159029566136 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.178768025783551 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.177568372076611 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.786314602154886 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5213485366564563 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.3750224366467814 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4290397913885573 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7874359487219182 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7811717323084983 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.6088287418969114 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0981427442026743 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9284096729773947 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.63883300913771 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.1311184334965905 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.152865980426748 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3075434620305026 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.967908169146943 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3705298876280576 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5620366547514501 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5673064464487885 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4861073183993474 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0608889549392306 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.107937544005004 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2581105234034426 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8841861278934737 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8267559368281798 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3961509655143234 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6291474345277757 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.555049237271824 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.612242063355499 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5836408673369013 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.821279806367949 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7664086179692964 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.279297585550337 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3469586781255563 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8090898681008745 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.643199123533983 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.5813691071949858 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.8667924182222212 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7032284521054393 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8207178379139624 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1694742365818795 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.841932190384566 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1331655010214776 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.61447545966319 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.709427152987409 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.1857236516772565 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.3534547369621255 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8555909263179389 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9501694728389436 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.444514813243525 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1712659214349173 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.5256472269619192 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.561560803054888 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8046089389468634 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.24299370828021 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3820926124076447 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2679990881739927 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.442552923654155 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0663888243120763 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.499672513046178 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1271425671265263 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0754920861507413 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5532453747959303 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3799653010618704 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.351103503618354 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.491691483180272 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9933428976537044 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.7869317491660803 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8618942357235957 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9558732889771873 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5659900087280203 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.545256708250945 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.485524872239723 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6531953051978587 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0973026361577554 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2419115054748184 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7813874120026056 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7395576357987559 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5013614596944693 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8944825566928358 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9302619701966878 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.423099722254511 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6173298212537097 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 7.583708980298381 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.968364090573877 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.944266074980533 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9001540007303475 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7658688976420065 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9158057017085748 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3219673970095847 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9681398174908495 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.385119593468003 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.129199461505426 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0215856863779003 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.582989370591028 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.8373986454071165 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1551938285058188 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.47991469583766 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.969876423994599 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8627436642749707 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0880423871936973 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7033403950175003 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5930790925538267 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.661457512999055 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.5033967891614175 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.0254466566686733 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5640561326114724 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7015229609306806 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3167064818370706 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1380436368171605 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.241542411579016 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.409297761204764 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1280074006480145 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.092324599766594 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.25464806709394 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3741976430086849 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9064764546417787 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9053626652735836 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.05233680396870311 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.21618025609636188 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.149713339530188 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2973976252238875 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.194688679026645 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.275636811460322 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6920815412406252 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.710336266063442 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.08933842074074555 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.2787477289521424 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2978594910221972 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4021192740771404 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.9576976578085215 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0690556027272256 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6301504184461308 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7519428163073005 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.11028716753675717 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.3378553481017328 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3038468054990373 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.3802787445887925 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8166532987750201 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9381646931530179 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2420883711537822 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.839532005535415 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.2403691399676899 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.3624503587324566 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.046068515389285 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.283938699521322 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0285649026716333 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7452604579716475 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8762285167654364 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6629699951365713 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.09141824582824218 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.2914086417537984 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2595638140777883 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4091186235479296 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.4579928407348022 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.6769041639440085 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.4998809904699515 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7006338337032147 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.6528217450664349 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.4888565540543175 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.784058547613678 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4308883944258524 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.2675561913956912 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.0679305857904662 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.1184437517553902 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.158292904052943 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0905102501916315 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0164998066619346 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.267643224481175 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.257634223788222 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1030094828410566 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9348612676833143 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2417066020892222 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.233043165876902 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1323305592573147 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9501955939401614 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.160537749825572 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8535642323113457 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0639276507868067 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.132063385034094 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.727274714072988 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1183745311088797 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1098664893248764 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.935483366120567 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0669801020369736 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.6780154212163128 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.059653718229748 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.086813178907389 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.758333005267465 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.676439150980997 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.507703813840158 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0215055266224997 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0675485318536246 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.43791013250671 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7950962227034128 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0367245971857737 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.769025514201504 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.892808737609314 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8490437410576854 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.73655501636988 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9929859930891127 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.2266388128180985 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5691389838517837 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.328986857862383 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8372161279876327 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9045359891336486 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0226602113553773 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5505317734635478 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.049445400939376 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.7600380688694965 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.771827014278163 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6036818384525984 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7930392221097815 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.9729416693040283 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2686126019030297 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5800773027859902 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0634653983716835 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.7283197226324014 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5521099063066024 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4714664832652895 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.818606129497949 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.3631991071984824 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4496730535348297 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.3580843082830003 } ], "featureAblations": [ { "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.009467843621557429, "logLossCi95": [ -0.06597157598743275, 0.08632806133560367 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.03793845447053982, 0.05687414171365468 ], "brierDifference": 0.001994342525460676, "brierCi95": [ -0.027165602346624296, 0.03515758401967715 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.020161506750947966, 0.02415019180186932 ], "group": "adjusted_efficiency", "name": "Adjusted offense and defense", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency" }, { "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": -0.10027668377180059, "logLossCi95": [ -0.25276048599416306, 0.05627977763095201 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.14427058019583838, -0.04157391070694535 ], "brierDifference": 0.025770813815683358, "brierCi95": [ -0.01699739775151743, 0.07125026898626739 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ 0.0005362441094550011, 0.05100538352191172 ], "group": "prior_roster", "name": "Previous season and roster continuity", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_prior_roster" }, { "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.2318785920913706, "logLossCi95": [ -0.0524442535661509, 0.5460258905935418 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ 0.08875542550487729, 0.42931930485000186 ], "brierDifference": 0.0408300321387895, "brierCi95": [ -0.03354635995969247, 0.11489110174838481 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ 0.005304492586691967, 0.08643219695684205 ], "group": "player_availability", "name": "Player box production and recent rotation", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_player_availability" }, { "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.11421764140538597, "logLossCi95": [ -0.5689983890959339, 0.85551474631994 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.3832868194633496, 0.4607375669509524 ], "brierDifference": 0.07754386813499776, "brierCi95": [ -0.18469019686008814, 0.3777773179285184 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.07942889126474569, 0.23451662753474123 ], "group": "four_factors", "name": "Shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_four_factors" }, { "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.20030539473599643, "logLossCi95": [ -0.060761555573546566, 0.43881054972350547 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ 0.01096104998620362, 0.29633227237903476 ], "brierDifference": 0.0457787126459572, "brierCi95": [ -0.03282802723869547, 0.14052030863825518 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.008080265489157449, 0.08291080871695737 ], "group": "pace_shooting", "name": "Pace and three-point profile", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_pace_shooting" } ], "featureGroups": [ { "id": "baseline", "name": "Current strength and record", "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "adjusted_efficiency", "name": "Adjusted offense and defense", "features": [ "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "prior_roster", "name": "Previous season and roster continuity", "features": [ "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "player_availability", "name": "Player box production and recent rotation", "features": [ "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "four_factors", "name": "Shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws", "features": [ "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "pace_shooting", "name": "Pace and three-point profile", "features": [ "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "status": "included" } ], "inputHash": "4e49e772775c9585c5c495ab1900f8965157104041b3ab277f28581e9511d8ac" }, { "id": "03-01", "label": "March 1", "status": "available", "coverage": { "trainingSeasons": 17, "testSeasons": 7, "firstTest": 2012, "lastTest": 2026, "testYears": [ 2012, 2016, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2026 ], "excluded": [ { "season": 1995, "reason": "Previous-season team box-score coverage below95% for at least one team.", "priorTeamCoverage": { "ATL": 1.0, "BOS": 1.0, "CHH": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 0.9878048780487805, "DAL": 0.9390243902439024, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NJN": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "SEA": 1.0, "UTA": 0.9634146341463414, "WSB": 0.9878048780487805 } }, { "season": 1996, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1996-1995-11-03-POR-VAN", "1996-1995-11-05-VAN-MIN", "1996-1995-11-07-DAL-VAN", "1996-1995-11-08-SAS-VAN", "1996-1995-11-10-VAN-LAC", "1996-1995-11-11-SEA-VAN", "1996-1995-11-13-VAN-DAL", "1996-1995-11-16-LAC-VAN", "1996-1995-11-17-VAN-LAL", "1996-1995-11-19-NYK-VAN", "1996-1995-11-22-ORL-VAN", "1996-1995-11-24-CHH-VAN", "1996-1995-11-25-MIA-VAN", "1996-1995-11-28-MIN-VAN", "1996-1995-11-30-VAN-CHI", "1996-1995-12-01-LAL-VAN", "1996-1995-12-03-VAN-MIL", "1996-1995-12-05-PHX-VAN", "1996-1995-12-07-VAN-DET", "1996-1995-12-10-VAN-TOR", "1996-1995-12-13-VAN-HOU", "1996-1995-12-15-VAN-POR", "1996-1995-12-16-VAN-GSW", "1996-1995-12-18-SAC-VAN", "1996-1995-12-19-VAN-SEA", "1996-1995-12-21-SEA-VAN", "1996-1995-12-22-VAN-PHX", "1996-1995-12-26-HOU-VAN", "1996-1995-12-28-DAL-VAN", "1996-1995-12-30-VAN-BOS", "1996-1996-01-05-VAN-PHI", "1996-1996-01-07-VAN-LAC", "1996-1996-01-09-GSW-VAN", "1996-1996-01-10-VAN-DEN", "1996-1996-01-12-VAN-GSW", "1996-1996-01-13-VAN-MIA", "1996-1996-01-18-VAN-CLE", "1996-1996-01-20-VAN-NYK", "1996-1996-01-22-MIL-VAN", "1996-1996-01-24-CHI-VAN", "1996-1996-01-25-TOR-VAN", "1996-1996-01-27-WSB-VAN", "1996-1996-01-29-PHI-VAN", "1996-1996-01-31-BOS-VAN", "1996-1996-02-02-VAN-NJN", "1996-1996-02-05-VAN-UTA", "1996-1996-02-07-UTA-VAN", "1996-1996-02-14-VAN-SAC", "1996-1996-02-16-VAN-ATL", "1996-1996-02-18-VAN-SEA", "1996-1996-02-19-PHX-VAN", "1996-1996-02-25-VAN-SAS", "1996-1996-02-28-VAN-LAL" ] }, { "season": 1997, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1997-1996-11-08-CLE-VAN", "1997-1996-11-15-UTA-VAN", "1997-1997-02-20-UTA-BOS" ] }, { "season": 1998, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "1998-1997-11-01-UTA-DEN", "1998-1997-12-10-CLE-DEN" ] }, { "season": 2000, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2000-1999-11-02-CHH-ORL", "2000-1999-11-20-WAS-LAC", "2000-2000-01-10-CLE-LAC", "2000-2000-01-15-UTA-LAC" ] }, { "season": 2002, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2002-2001-11-30-PHX-UTA", "2002-2001-12-08-MEM-PHI", "2002-2001-12-22-SEA-DET", "2002-2002-01-12-WAS-MIN", "2002-2002-01-26-CHH-HOU" ] }, { "season": 2003, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2003-2002-10-29-LAL-SAS", "2003-2002-11-16-GSW-ORL", "2003-2002-11-16-MIL-BOS", "2003-2002-12-06-PHX-IND", "2003-2002-12-06-TOR-CHI", "2003-2002-12-31-HOU-MIL" ] }, { "season": 2013, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2013-2012-12-25-MIA-OKC", "2013-2013-01-29-CLE-GSW", "2013-2013-01-29-DET-MIL", "2013-2013-01-29-LAL-NOP", "2013-2013-01-29-POR-DAL" ] }, { "season": 2014, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2014-2013-11-27-CHA-IND" ] }, { "season": 2015, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2015-2014-12-12-CHI-POR" ] }, { "season": 2017, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2017-2017-01-20-LAL-IND", "2017-2017-01-29-ATL-NYK" ] }, { "season": 2018, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2018-2017-12-31-BOS-BKN" ] }, { "season": 2019, "reason": "Per-team player coverage below80% at cutoff or90% in the previous season.", "currentPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 0.9843581445523193, "priorPlayerTeamGameCoverage": 1.0, "proxy": "(PTS+ORB+DRB+AST+STL+BLK-missedFG-missedFT-TOV) per36; previous season weight0.5, current weight1, 300-minute prior-season league shrinkage; last5-game minute weights.", "currentPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 0.9841269841269841, "BOS": 1.0, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 0.9836065573770492, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 0.9838709677419355, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 0.9838709677419355, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 0.9841269841269841, "PHI": 0.8870967741935484, "PHX": 0.7419354838709677, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 0.9836065573770492, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 }, "priorPlayerCoverageByTeam": { "ATL": 1.0, "BKN": 0.9878048780487805, "BOS": 0.9878048780487805, "CHA": 1.0, "CHI": 1.0, "CLE": 1.0, "DAL": 1.0, "DEN": 1.0, "DET": 1.0, "GSW": 1.0, "HOU": 1.0, "IND": 1.0, "LAC": 1.0, "LAL": 1.0, "MEM": 1.0, "MIA": 1.0, "MIL": 1.0, "MIN": 1.0, "NOP": 1.0, "NYK": 1.0, "OKC": 1.0, "ORL": 1.0, "PHI": 1.0, "PHX": 1.0, "POR": 1.0, "SAC": 1.0, "SAS": 1.0, "TOR": 1.0, "UTA": 1.0, "WAS": 1.0 } }, { "season": 2020, "reason": "Excluded under existing pandemic-season protocol." }, { "season": 2025, "reason": "Incomplete/mismatched team box scores at cutoff.", "missingGames": [ "2025-2024-10-25-POR-NOP" ] } ] }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.401197381662155, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "topPickAccuracy": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.3534705406212715, "brier": 0.9694693283388062, "topPickAccuracy": 0.14285714285714285 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.1543398724801888, "brier": 0.903239708735913, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2857142857142857 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.2221973862816475, "brier": 0.9338003862834617, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2857142857142857 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.3311246223877737, "brier": 0.9068975892800806, "topPickAccuracy": 0.14285714285714285 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.1610169980666027, "brier": 0.877238859309231, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2857142857142857 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.198544756787402, "brier": 0.8761481062667905, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2857142857142857 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.151671117393223, "brier": 0.8539881796475165, "topPickAccuracy": 0.14285714285714285 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.2568855829532035, "brier": 0.9032761929402863, "topPickAccuracy": 0.14285714285714285 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.1722089533390276, "brier": 0.856719628350585, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2857142857142857 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.3024504428745307, "brier": 0.8672111497925021, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2857142857142857 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.157961679592655, "brier": 0.8701819524905867, "topPickAccuracy": 0.14285714285714285 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.013276823687984, "brier": 0.810667021293387, "topPickAccuracy": 0.42857142857142855 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.35221268882476, "brier": 0.8863391659447721, "topPickAccuracy": 0.14285714285714285 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.3735035269293, "brier": 0.9016975181992227, "topPickAccuracy": 0.14285714285714285 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.145442887369733, "brier": 0.8567011903308684, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2857142857142857 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.6250852765477686, "brier": 0.8985761944141883, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2857142857142857 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.154082183657741, "brier": 0.8426943509537993, "topPickAccuracy": 0.14285714285714285 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 2.2456712211885423, "brier": 0.9358724739656242, "topPickAccuracy": 0.2857142857142857 } }, "comparisons": [ { "model": "uniform", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 1.1789999953805077, "logLossCi95": [ 0.45584604430896547, 1.885624465978744 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ 0.6046796057502615, 1.7878518239883232 ], "brierDifference": 0.032866280383204084, "brierCi95": [ -0.22013721299526626, 0.2894529205581938 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.18133691139389493, 0.28330723531569624 ] }, { "model": "record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.13127315433962392, "logLossCi95": [ -0.11711014548000524, 0.37821066884481264 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.03298879405827214, 0.2702099673889143 ], "brierDifference": 0.035668942055344606, "brierCi95": [ -0.028047817009914038, 0.10413571567488918 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.003420462029762555, 0.08196514577808311 ] }, { "model": "strength", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.06785751380145945, "logLossCi95": [ -0.364140751373481, 0.1741505342584977 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.25486444679518094, 0.11293485770226064 ], "brierDifference": -0.03056067754754866, "brierCi95": [ -0.10749238158050535, 0.03780743101199468 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.10008200794761479, 0.03677534287543744 ] }, { "model": "adv_record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.10892723610612594, "logLossCi95": [ -0.2527876793014129, 0.4053691876051101 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.16091457170680837, 0.35429968761084574 ], "brierDifference": -0.02690279700338106, "brierCi95": [ -0.1616039901198922, 0.11625677923033217 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.1403765499751101, 0.10491106182936585 ] }, { "model": "adv_strength", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.061180388215045, "logLossCi95": [ -0.38865536329140377, 0.22098393488281837 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.3202936553113778, 0.1959990050790116 ], "brierDifference": -0.05656152697423063, "brierCi95": [ -0.17891446789819002, 0.04231386189157336 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.17706099933947853, 0.04353680080283901 ] }, { "model": "adv_strength_record", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.02365262949424523, "logLossCi95": [ -0.3519848907940827, 0.2591106418993874 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.30090049048339473, 0.25359523149490426 ], "brierDifference": -0.05765228001667107, "brierCi95": [ -0.1891311732624211, 0.05878103686417757 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.1782229292487327, 0.06279733819420025 ] }, { "model": "adv_full", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.07052626888842493, "logLossCi95": [ -0.6617082424044849, 0.4448475988089837 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.4369327751406003, 0.28105715916002405 ], "brierDifference": -0.0798122066359452, "brierCi95": [ -0.3119500642257324, 0.10651387298418662 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.24786952782316804, 0.06591724735894446 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.03468819667155613, "logLossCi95": [ -0.2330831886629432, 0.2985309655945707 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.18615954981870472, 0.255535943161817 ], "brierDifference": -0.03052419334317533, "brierCi95": [ -0.1447567379892582, 0.06604589863546571 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.13494017128543143, 0.06253856642560898 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.049988432942620044, "logLossCi95": [ -0.6731230353615614, 0.50789513009173 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.4269132157106546, 0.32856256480812934 ], "brierDifference": -0.0770807579328766, "brierCi95": [ -0.32028359611198426, 0.1195985829088533 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.25127188737376377, 0.08438293906429022 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.08025305659288304, "logLossCi95": [ -0.31080799161057304, 0.4156931766646181 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.2065327153337337, 0.34092860225438554 ], "brierDifference": -0.06658923649095964, "brierCi95": [ -0.23931105857279494, 0.05992217075385986 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.20285102353299195, 0.04812631059587526 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.06423570668899296, "logLossCi95": [ -0.62577120308348, 0.48131899832229147 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.4226787025866514, 0.2917032638259275 ], "brierDifference": -0.06361843379287484, "brierCi95": [ -0.27336247947693365, 0.11670317634708462 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.22880907653193966, 0.09053104622949201 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.2089205625936639, "logLossCi95": [ -0.8839941186582513, 0.4451582507466565 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.7465484965581151, 0.3480907910062755 ], "brierDifference": -0.1231333649900748, "brierCi95": [ -0.40180490025439725, 0.16529428788971862 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.35042936845751244, 0.11942002440401489 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.13001530254311247, "logLossCi95": [ -0.45389990320828133, 0.7200282210839039 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.21376343000084988, 0.4527655455923282 ], "brierDifference": -0.04746122033868938, "brierCi95": [ -0.22980192906889738, 0.12981193603080685 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.17043693614958944, 0.06683371301040343 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.15130614064765238, "logLossCi95": [ -0.3665890465538739, 0.6350573594826107 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.17939182572786727, 0.48838534650860504 ], "brierDifference": -0.03210286808423905, "brierCi95": [ -0.2234036588926996, 0.14666742383290549 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.19062367441268827, 0.12249743705952564 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.07675449891191474, "logLossCi95": [ -0.6321530800089704, 0.41853208742250325 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.47467292466849786, 0.31125264101653954 ], "brierDifference": -0.07709919595259314, "brierCi95": [ -0.3113741756707793, 0.12010717885292213 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.26460134367743465, 0.0968405546630536 ] }, { "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.4028878902661212, "logLossCi95": [ -0.5323705838810201, 1.38448657225983 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.19633763331668755, 0.9441576343628588 ], "brierDifference": -0.03522419186927323, "brierCi95": [ -0.2373062998772741, 0.17729460005318817 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.20854932091789896, 0.10821412967991981 ] }, { "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": -0.0681152026239067, "logLossCi95": [ -0.6711286943971108, 0.42290659891422955 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.4202892060499104, 0.3489178608446682 ], "brierDifference": -0.09110603532966222, "brierCi95": [ -0.3271702471386457, 0.10583772597530028 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.2507923537536938, 0.08593784698791607 ] }, { "model": "adv_selected", "baseline": "strength_record", "logLossDifference": 0.02347383490689492, "logLossCi95": [ -0.07751624564223271, 0.1677389118111905 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.04689002535209293, 0.1069327910498131 ], "brierDifference": 0.0020720876821626283, "brierCi95": [ -0.0459763603893756, 0.04727339216281184 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.034323276498257185, 0.03846745186258244 ] } ], "seasons": [ { "season": 2012, "champion": "MIA", "cutoffDate": "2012-03-01", "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.5365031968398604 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1692393561706558, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.8278784095366427 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.0183901431130016, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3085764159234656, "record": 0.29484667045414265 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1453038058933154, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.22187138698037207, "record": 0.15497050155814124, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.06659067828550276, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2764923843927993, "prior_net_rating": 0.2645542208844729, "retained_minutes_share": -0.07135971790001577, "rotation_box_production": 0.16722821186226777, "star_box_production": 0.28556447327670037, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2422345165408872, "efg_pct": 0.13911072036829764, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2377692797077753, "turnover_rate": 0.04773540971907474, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.10558444075557895, "oreb_pct": 0.22962313224577444, "dreb_pct": -0.030441908775557063, "ft_rate": 0.09203790237815179, "opp_ft_rate": -0.21931085431296352, "pace": 0.04201149144159482, "three_attempt_rate": 0.08060758559785543, "three_pct": -0.20208669759473596, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.0050507588449025705, "opp_three_pct": -0.24611912709515021 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5421397109452486, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.713150515484982, "record": 0.16206705180807307, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.47563700721451274, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.7190897569016759 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.060447753121841, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2684441689187728, "record": 0.18175582896658796, "prior_net_rating": 0.2714064640469604, "retained_minutes_share": -0.07085052374785386, "rotation_box_production": 0.16273796912636856, "star_box_production": 0.2964546945819269, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2583918016354829, "efg_pct": 0.13381113315910165, "opp_efg_pct": -0.3103250633067757, "turnover_rate": 0.07326682662685342, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.04892347784841102, "oreb_pct": 0.22860684627978436, "dreb_pct": 0.004564164070322117, "ft_rate": 0.09808240830729427, "opp_ft_rate": -0.22767335912379652, "pace": 0.03276411557118511, "three_attempt_rate": 0.07474165099048427, "three_pct": -0.1987501415291746, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.01777535137477131, "opp_three_pct": -0.2682402853753897 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.627565333405459, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4877661447424549, "record": 0.3368789282614795, "prior_net_rating": 0.35522528986125396, "retained_minutes_share": -0.05892874528081957 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5801086660447203, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.23849939134354103, "record": 0.1693769532188796, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.07682365458209828, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.28352473777306925, "rotation_box_production": 0.19038343164881757, "star_box_production": 0.3094867125344572, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.23361978513748397, "efg_pct": 0.15171646282135415, "opp_efg_pct": -0.245180150205284, "turnover_rate": 0.03465689337105135, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.11990727210248245, "oreb_pct": 0.21879233561031985, "dreb_pct": 0.0003367004090803325, "ft_rate": 0.08350529151435915, "opp_ft_rate": -0.22294818946954398, "pace": 0.028373185105530288, "three_attempt_rate": 0.09061579729171097, "three_pct": -0.2030165933417079, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.012475893480154734, "opp_three_pct": -0.23832216742603599 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4691132401046016, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.8442303187669109, "record": 0.18734689326698487, "rotation_box_production": 0.09269739189400099, "star_box_production": 0.5784040609580019, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.6114351260194464 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.305926996368125, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.28943499383551136, "record": 0.20195951183459526, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.13206139757060928, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2991671017219693, "prior_net_rating": 0.3044698102984097, "retained_minutes_share": -0.08095771592667458, "efg_pct": 0.21190525593922793, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2794514469464318, "turnover_rate": 0.020825524714394274, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.1247242578794514, "oreb_pct": 0.24319330465312589, "dreb_pct": -0.015685590824455583, "ft_rate": 0.10106886809684475, "opp_ft_rate": -0.21252640732552075, "pace": 0.06645868811160592, "three_attempt_rate": 0.07434674719957372, "three_pct": -0.19849898775528532, "opp_three_attempt_rate": -0.007216927308020619, "opp_three_pct": -0.21870706163444453 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6712650790049546, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3858882517198998, "record": 0.2673781400465357, "efg_pct": 0.2011579472393629, "opp_efg_pct": -0.4121283145449483, "turnover_rate": 0.015051437873725296, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.0745572854207037, "oreb_pct": 0.23980484346198971, "dreb_pct": 0.03284962765388923, "ft_rate": 0.10226286344651757, "opp_ft_rate": -0.23971067991064696 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.620735067348973, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.35272521210377467, "record": 0.19464773005942682, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.23904645431214236, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.5247975179885779, "prior_net_rating": 0.6569775989347286, "retained_minutes_share": -0.1833813182181666, "rotation_box_production": 0.1790700208499058, "star_box_production": 0.6456962267050992, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.6135065116927955, "pace": 0.05437074458746423, "three_attempt_rate": 0.31281860176179227, "three_pct": -0.7396043009877561, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.10110425572609863, "opp_three_pct": -0.7121436301821326 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.357950870645813, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 2.500803663426796, "record": -0.025428966187749535, "pace": -0.0016249941115579264, "three_attempt_rate": 0.49693800325640164, "three_pct": -1.1711313650045967, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.0828781342859789, "opp_three_pct": -0.4928008680891944 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1365840158281997, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21802088544070233, "record": 0.147852144942493, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.047429495138026266, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.29273462124955557, "prior_net_rating": 0.2548026745875507, "retained_minutes_share": -0.08170123970411575, "rotation_box_production": 0.17262992819118333, "star_box_production": 0.2736974300564696, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.23443130688834937, "efg_pct": 0.10187139916436609, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2603496231111019, "turnover_rate": 0.036937642935044444, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.09558428449796712, "oreb_pct": 0.2381094600275267, "dreb_pct": -0.0641132664180408, "ft_rate": 0.09626848565562465, "opp_ft_rate": -0.22790454859912565 }, "trainingSeasons": 10, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2011, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5110967775643824, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 } } }, "selection": { "id": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "validationLogLoss": 1.8336722295141725, "validationSeasons": 5, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2011 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666659, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NJN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 1.4449932795371578, "brier": 0.7001081917298675, "championProbability": 0.2357476608839349, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.2892382979772723, "brier": 0.6081292563435229, "championProbability": 0.2754805372769826, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.2743869466587976, "brier": 0.6199740192535379, "championProbability": 0.279602326830728, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 1.7144887615082596, "brier": 0.7507541273914887, "championProbability": 0.18005574861635637, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.5231064311197007, "brier": 0.679681112651468, "championProbability": 0.2180335277239554, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.644345415741894, "brier": 0.7141111391264625, "championProbability": 0.1931389471390719, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.29295157660651, "brier": 0.9142564053894616, "championProbability": 0.10096800680719185, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.6295420411718446, "brier": 0.7184652268925285, "championProbability": 0.19601932235400538, "topPick": "CHI", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.360326715128408, "brier": 0.929086272515769, "championProbability": 0.094389379719746, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.991255568734691, "brier": 0.7924916581422937, "championProbability": 0.13652390264502512, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.4432778846154215, "brier": 0.9407077068174077, "championProbability": 0.08687561598778665, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 0.7629061662892812, "brier": 0.31338755109378014, "championProbability": 0.4663092836024949, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.8243516368230077, "brier": 0.9897953123782046, "championProbability": 0.059347122847231065, "topPick": "CHI", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.4688671209256845, "brier": 0.9288000135475869, "championProbability": 0.08468073771757267, "topPick": "CHI", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.207082586228824, "brier": 0.9358829250666579, "championProbability": 0.1100211580002604, "topPick": "LAL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 4.0096994982180565, "brier": 1.1053796062763335, "championProbability": 0.018138845173199213, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.7695220947194183, "brier": 0.7767536759823399, "championProbability": 0.17041441131479548, "topPick": "CHI", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.2743869466587976, "brier": 0.6199740192535379, "championProbability": 0.279602326830728, "topPick": "MIA", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.014204150626157841, "strength": 0.013736246086534237, "strength_record": 0.012870534453525484, "adv_record": 0.023746078702458456, "adv_strength": 0.020164686617864726, "adv_strength_record": 0.02381481962973, "adv_full": 0.00916733573448182, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02419197208027924, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008541359150970047, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02611063599220004, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.010992063807405788, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.007315531489454079, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014970460323007749, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.025421178818072127, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001850026159268025, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004305771570769697, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01257691374351676, "adv_selected": 0.012870534453525484 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00576878310554832, "strength": 0.005132233540998763, "strength_record": 0.004737766263979188, "adv_record": 0.012399011507996452, "adv_strength": 0.009228229951610748, "adv_strength_record": 0.012013381351090377, "adv_full": 0.021320645186059584, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012683630630269206, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023216796048651223, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.029980039709879825, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016959772410410405, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008333195612553844, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.024831432835275342, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019607615616632153, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.019348204035900953, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002583707236142181, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.018838891287921707, "adv_selected": 0.004737766263979188 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Bobcats", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 4.8511393442514994e-05, "strength": 1.315830362028743e-05, "strength_record": 1.5981013671550872e-05, "adv_record": 0.0003952266726047356, "adv_strength": 8.088086583863619e-05, "adv_strength_record": 0.00020877940121448042, "adv_full": 0.00030629226182045827, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 9.359702236075643e-05, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00044007958699006795, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0020309771303060713, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0003139101600099939, "adv_add_player_availability": 9.085720246840105e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0005066712377380134, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0009131546336435677, "adv_without_four_factors": 2.260951202525558e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 1.4271134449414573e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00035400523009184977, "adv_selected": 1.5981013671550872e-05 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.20693403645029287, "strength": 0.23224310808681142, "strength_record": 0.23838669363433754, "adv_record": 0.16390011729535467, "adv_strength": 0.19039326798273534, "adv_strength_record": 0.17214287416568902, "adv_full": 0.15924692512921707, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.20437075221249693, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.14864794234993936, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.12257190039963428, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1545126056087612, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.08343790440811039, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.19814160221517532, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.21585596481276062, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03901766426119914, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.044478675450926014, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.21154363925515837, "adv_selected": 0.23838669363433754 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001513620083520776, "strength": 0.0007033989372994328, "strength_record": 0.0008147545331037593, "adv_record": 0.004724497617567713, "adv_strength": 0.0019047379827649763, "adv_strength_record": 0.0032259811623930944, "adv_full": 0.002761226889659095, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0021617360767455618, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003324632960915154, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005365215129935863, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004294012097883231, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0017735963573014787, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003844330279369531, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010731964710026805, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00012795824641835264, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00028242239432111943, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0036402079930039468, "adv_selected": 0.0008147545331037593 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01650582028239755, "strength": 0.025573059098184837, "strength_record": 0.01933995986863641, "adv_record": 0.026462205809140302, "adv_strength": 0.033029105702121565, "adv_strength_record": 0.034617355007922755, "adv_full": 0.031128475338816557, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.042309991965698804, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026070921169912283, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.044722309818991494, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.028692584457470322, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.013896853746182986, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03686049348663818, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.024233347901836375, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.07530693350870757, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.1426843302085018, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.023794540084483486, "adv_selected": 0.01933995986863641 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0081897097666978, "strength": 0.022621749702670457, "strength_record": 0.012468986313227862, "adv_record": 0.01596369382532827, "adv_strength": 0.029964878272874303, "adv_strength_record": 0.02930239634382808, "adv_full": 0.013222783049941074, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02302940195692004, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012684760638700698, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.045259223656423174, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009857314886778937, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023813329065585044, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03976847445235235, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.028707034894776568, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0036274924846994394, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05079979303249139, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012738375819660535, "adv_selected": 0.012468986313227862 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.000628957553724509, "strength": 0.0002166815940489713, "strength_record": 0.00027429059405640563, "adv_record": 0.002507931673818635, "adv_strength": 0.0007478470547093462, "adv_strength_record": 0.0014628913059587041, "adv_full": 0.001430891877452373, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008811167047577827, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0018655385501823983, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005183651337212102, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0016969148974713777, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002838030496880986, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0012054503555548727, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0030552893381375745, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00018000491865705228, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 6.036381215144455e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002306282272150102, "adv_selected": 0.00027429059405640563 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0026222224700980633, "strength": 0.002691978621054301, "strength_record": 0.002214110554487091, "adv_record": 0.007021951544844879, "adv_strength": 0.0055286501151112525, "adv_strength_record": 0.007464381665748557, "adv_full": 0.0022415397736050093, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004957367320707323, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0025446235587118448, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013191687644071505, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002470954218814731, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005603082283969369, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002727775036907194, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005685983746201397, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00045475064186948705, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00043594594753431666, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0035970307029081195, "adv_selected": 0.002214110554487091 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01650582028239755, "strength": 0.009724722775580556, "strength_record": 0.0116284717303666, "adv_record": 0.026462205809140302, "adv_strength": 0.015328602887042493, "adv_strength_record": 0.019981001904167083, "adv_full": 0.025142387808522553, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01643559937635059, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.027475327138887274, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.032016911142290466, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.024220041814074094, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010779153000343766, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.030759588465123333, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.022700100932602725, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02376835296365669, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.017203902310293895, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.017012745701510866, "adv_selected": 0.0116284717303666 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.036877867661780285, "strength": 0.01950553104623685, "strength_record": 0.02576814556361737, "adv_record": 0.04724947935348198, "adv_strength": 0.026638246615471664, "adv_strength_record": 0.033170247972478736, "adv_full": 0.02086897183126276, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.032714932784185524, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02052460425314456, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.030211632939049965, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02423326329107991, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02546678226047055, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021133915509649874, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03484010933629083, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0072105701129459064, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0066431767232202526, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.026690219102955437, "adv_selected": 0.02576814556361737 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02791988099780917, "strength": 0.018810026233334384, "strength_record": 0.021788306073731254, "adv_record": 0.03865854752235946, "adv_strength": 0.02588129154333946, "adv_strength_record": 0.03126525552024514, "adv_full": 0.01473248273732202, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02191971260070646, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015786660056048195, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.028869051852452005, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.019443191137775952, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.022341021907969532, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015164260235597176, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.028153326409191288, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004805725822664334, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.013702080720665583, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019095032457723475, "adv_selected": 0.021788306073731254 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020367967457935753, "strength": 0.022142762014042357, "strength_record": 0.02005975084366505, "adv_record": 0.03079454834364388, "adv_strength": 0.02946001749224392, "adv_strength_record": 0.03283790490978076, "adv_full": 0.15221931073564804, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.030405364356309004, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15171449932289474, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04998368576327058, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1371713458940535, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04285911199999993, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.12235655571608062, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07759432163175048, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.28406530910604194, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.17007159239188227, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.09760572344811932, "adv_selected": 0.02005975084366505 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.014204150626157841, "strength": 0.016126385376709417, "strength_record": 0.014004024329206534, "adv_record": 0.023746078702458456, "adv_strength": 0.022903764364103314, "adv_strength_record": 0.026088405228477825, "adv_full": 0.016532460472290428, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02989663844944503, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014185212720870477, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.034610923718450246, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014023217991045544, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.015749815447193997, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018573676127458714, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01846304106009928, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012257112374851192, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01319454997569208, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.020660453425886707, "adv_selected": 0.014004024329206534 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.2357476608839349, "strength": 0.2754805372769826, "strength_record": 0.279602326830728, "adv_record": 0.18005574861635637, "adv_strength": 0.2180335277239554, "adv_strength_record": 0.1931389471390719, "adv_full": 0.10096800680719185, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.19601932235400538, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.094389379719746, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.13652390264502512, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.08687561598778665, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.4663092836024949, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.059347122847231065, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08468073771757267, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1100211580002604, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.018138845173199213, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.17041441131479548, "adv_selected": 0.279602326830728 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0016338821528258888, "strength": 0.0023337233840558516, "strength_record": 0.0015951772673395506, "adv_record": 0.004992295540751457, "adv_strength": 0.0049359986841443155, "adv_strength_record": 0.006446283798787857, "adv_full": 0.003472333253393457, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004942315087124438, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0035840242230890775, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012854079441115796, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003350258044832302, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0024994537642618617, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005288108528906712, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006470705627769887, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0012578784353329577, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0035073453315924525, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.003995428561425697, "adv_selected": 0.0015951772673395506 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00576878310554832, "strength": 0.008522367377371033, "strength_record": 0.006186713691144943, "adv_record": 0.012399011507996452, "adv_strength": 0.013803663113122353, "adv_strength_record": 0.016027241660724747, "adv_full": 0.0327258318580774, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014773018463438734, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03344204875772121, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014015325268199836, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05304045621395234, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.027281701824070116, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02077923060213699, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.030204764546168474, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.013781211966355508, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01896119749121294, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.028891473102779206, "adv_selected": 0.006186713691144943 } }, { "id": "NJN", "name": "New Jersey Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0004963569500133954, "strength": 0.0003708934652927289, "strength_record": 0.00032069692702825617, "adv_record": 0.002114281340778914, "adv_strength": 0.0011459034080681136, "adv_strength_record": 0.0019216036874469952, "adv_full": 0.0008758228044854645, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000981566934422088, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0010917310546906629, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005097973595839236, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0011023809711905993, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007555273230948585, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0012205159386926342, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0030576991323086103, "adv_without_four_factors": 4.422648929639353e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0001714761227895072, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0014866088785487103, "adv_selected": 0.00032069692702825617 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00018794301465705203, "strength": 0.0009081613639790474, "strength_record": 0.00030577321317013005, "adv_record": 0.0010495633859592384, "adv_strength": 0.002333112611192673, "adv_strength_record": 0.002794853873627795, "adv_full": 0.003193313444210024, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0023927416566948572, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0034858102734806394, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009996160207622274, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002358188449803699, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00045411913005056006, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007715651751410968, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005602081279176265, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0012055853133761314, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0022513480101392183, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0025663900017884084, "adv_selected": 0.00030577321317013005 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00576878310554832, "strength": 0.005215033767960486, "strength_record": 0.004777830561061966, "adv_record": 0.012399011507996452, "adv_strength": 0.009346243638805702, "adv_strength_record": 0.012123167022950233, "adv_full": 0.01077257812887131, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012854778019298121, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009440800418862316, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.023380134110707867, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0098705948530372, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0024963661850240407, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014554973769801065, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010975274403015371, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006438766767005514, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.021871916142034174, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010559998700551224, "adv_selected": 0.004777830561061966 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.25390698934437667, "strength": 0.12449506056573977, "strength_record": 0.1915439094809985, "adv_record": 0.1899535393984867, "adv_strength": 0.1160514720567454, "adv_strength_record": 0.12424084960888813, "adv_full": 0.21278673788137073, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10787687398098178, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.22530096333414457, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.08862373504481816, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.22495830894552976, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.10422349769608436, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.196775114628621, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.15752085575472596, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.20109763458959845, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.245121128676401, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.15058135767038308, "adv_selected": 0.1915439094809985 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03326639294381962, "strength": 0.013000855287741565, "strength_record": 0.019700208685251623, "adv_record": 0.04386505679370224, "adv_strength": 0.01930272179033585, "adv_strength_record": 0.025966274874462927, "adv_full": 0.07782943548587822, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022592133046277513, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08480921851238583, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04529875860902794, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.07640166891402082, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.06835587665658821, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.05189914648853549, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05966184767431964, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06977000750434496, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008818822666356783, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0784671350224878, "adv_selected": 0.019700208685251623 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01650582028239755, "strength": 0.07568604181498645, "strength_record": 0.03422902300411638, "adv_record": 0.026462205809140302, "adv_strength": 0.07817068378526716, "adv_strength_record": 0.06414243345128198, "adv_full": 0.016407097017865302, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07824359371090439, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01510670515962276, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.042597745949842336, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.020686962201419228, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017633571882617435, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.027990213845480016, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03900808588289278, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009286049581779678, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03531168815106075, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.017950896491323167, "adv_selected": 0.03422902300411638 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0018952881890009696, "strength": 0.0020321430783909853, "strength_record": 0.001605549350464124, "adv_record": 0.005556241123981167, "adv_strength": 0.004422430931920846, "adv_strength_record": 0.006082336526343576, "adv_full": 0.005670033349723382, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004377368902865641, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00649095743169137, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012990050324190785, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0066283123369015136, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006470583447996749, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00494047294309332, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007783220429647958, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001974398755406201, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0015388683415144225, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006748183475847344, "adv_selected": 0.001605549350464124 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006907969674215289, "strength": 0.04848611015785957, "strength_record": 0.017003763807788976, "adv_record": 0.014119783283960739, "adv_strength": 0.054889650374772496, "adv_strength_record": 0.04414364594534354, "adv_full": 0.030663926844088748, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.050455091843697245, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.028032545200045816, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04051059780130551, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02815020310758437, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0246263260316498, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03531434412199741, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.020763893770299708, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.09453967243891982, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.15580510581237964, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02081174438864644, "adv_selected": 0.017003763807788976 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0009024073415543355, "strength": 0.0003984062629140666, "strength_record": 0.0004582866395865611, "adv_record": 0.003253696939712401, "adv_strength": 0.0012128925777847108, "adv_strength_record": 0.0021739701108964824, "adv_full": 0.0036488930159733297, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013667334934356471, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004281282687224836, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0060978413190708024, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0042559606478138005, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001053051322710208, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00432360355993203, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00502705432406877, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0008053491977829646, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0014348290185601641, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0030923475582850593, "adv_selected": 0.0004582866395865611 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06005441800302271, "strength": 0.049223255511744966, "strength_record": 0.05441780771699924, "adv_record": 0.06716138545598213, "adv_strength": 0.05555119061938868, "adv_strength_record": 0.06005671336526178, "adv_full": 0.016020261723939198, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04769127766478655, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016144097392323142, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06827183406928546, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01638635537169247, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.023052791366366586, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02474857481078862, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.035063782330698075, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004716700849134085, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006567489799237026, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.022266713342264027, "adv_selected": 0.05441780771699924 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0005541450508634467, "strength": 0.0006200746436786929, "strength_record": 0.00044573891534052196, "adv_record": 0.0022890457862306535, "adv_strength": 0.0017232924845215737, "adv_strength_record": 0.0026130502968718067, "adv_full": 0.0015504681900225057, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0020266759529164063, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017706029225238236, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0050751398851030475, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0024154141021604163, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0013540990474671425, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0020803865544735092, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0047144436684757015, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00033158172472640157, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008705325470340226, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0015522432948336987, "adv_selected": 0.00044573891534052196 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003980594077591832, "strength": 0.003875311189366425, "strength_record": 0.0033519634841502714, "adv_record": 0.009488227084403361, "adv_strength": 0.00738335328483072, "adv_strength_record": 0.009727950223801005, "adv_full": 0.012332962123790729, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00685819579760261, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01469347078974124, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015816671372896374, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013658978243063611, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010006825282343309, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011209986867623607, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011464343832498692, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012613682216297824, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01306847931824169, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009219915051873856, "adv_selected": 0.0033519634841502714 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00013106712266877887, "strength": 0.00011098343480952511, "strength_record": 8.34546552189061e-05, "adv_record": 0.0008093320443633356, "adv_strength": 0.00043965546731215176, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008050028455146884, "adv_full": 0.0007605692450195288, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004964995543164675, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009134046158885483, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0027422041217818804, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0009791489361761373, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005606563177221187, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0009678664653472755, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002038775784339662, "adv_without_four_factors": 7.338202147722547e-05, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00010034448920557317, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009410926190761209, "adv_selected": 8.34546552189061e-05 } } ] }, { "season": 2016, "champion": "CLE", "cutoffDate": "2016-03-01", "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.6485659861080215 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.09344759039359, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.971305630935308 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 1.9358428577807845, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3617464573807905, "record": 0.37149363388887446 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0618107408680784, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.23583633957699549, "record": 0.16192606615858485, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.08297756849371941, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2902517696547999, "prior_net_rating": 0.29675806132636473, "retained_minutes_share": -0.0662372747482713, "rotation_box_production": 0.13706197477852033, "star_box_production": 0.3608376466219675, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2703388442520891, "efg_pct": 0.1660594278295902, "opp_efg_pct": -0.22271875973114938, "turnover_rate": 0.026610501320898573, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.025822147820054153, "oreb_pct": 0.2028805537750488, "dreb_pct": -0.016820716326288582, "ft_rate": 0.11414763990843398, "opp_ft_rate": -0.20789621842613373, "pace": 0.08662914033657629, "three_attempt_rate": 0.029282590121135127, "three_pct": -0.13042705589002185, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.10607786720831357, "opp_three_pct": -0.16799739565027327 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5006083552221257, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.7260438751637917, "record": 0.20459266265152792, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.5621626119782485, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.7466387372962533 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 1.9886301344635082, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.286262420177901, "record": 0.1912306071025424, "prior_net_rating": 0.3038834026595241, "retained_minutes_share": -0.06630904402587824, "rotation_box_production": 0.13408261210585726, "star_box_production": 0.3716256303701022, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.28847309621467937, "efg_pct": 0.16281441443938338, "opp_efg_pct": -0.29806790335248834, "turnover_rate": 0.04925900881667433, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.034456850891779855, "oreb_pct": 0.20216752888427925, "dreb_pct": 0.018676841858588717, "ft_rate": 0.11999249109343665, "opp_ft_rate": -0.21622887624789744, "pace": 0.0757899928937422, "three_attempt_rate": 0.022352069781799, "three_pct": -0.12449002408094192, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.08366123650148496, "opp_three_pct": -0.19009964793570222 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.583025563692617, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.1769196978141079, "record": 0.3890709409098714, "prior_net_rating": 0.6690921596182119, "retained_minutes_share": -0.3798998043587879 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4445394094467567, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.25601840895267697, "record": 0.17893444619014023, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.096539690832572, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.29767865779780933, "rotation_box_production": 0.16386308302293065, "star_box_production": 0.38643234993408415, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.26373812162126414, "efg_pct": 0.18358966738519522, "opp_efg_pct": -0.22863288955209432, "turnover_rate": 0.012469083534895379, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.03934042710227504, "oreb_pct": 0.1917460588099089, "dreb_pct": 0.01934867018185944, "ft_rate": 0.10375185319467724, "opp_ft_rate": -0.21305148905858126, "pace": 0.07270478025770617, "three_attempt_rate": 0.03560882427410248, "three_pct": -0.12838555288227324, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.09046186412745556, "opp_three_pct": -0.1565905581146802 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4648073475230716, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.8449979707018318, "record": 0.20513638405854048, "rotation_box_production": 0.1063180042813665, "star_box_production": 0.6705745550459867, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.6742435237335976 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.048756858021651, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3125221480252589, "record": 0.22212064086068176, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.15796154838961304, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.3175890372565466, "prior_net_rating": 0.34262648630057835, "retained_minutes_share": -0.07693474487496062, "efg_pct": 0.24714686916662149, "opp_efg_pct": -0.275860127231311, "turnover_rate": 0.0001139861351268886, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.04919153069260269, "oreb_pct": 0.21563173114497666, "dreb_pct": 0.008674959151772922, "ft_rate": 0.1308997257228145, "opp_ft_rate": -0.19376094181441691, "pace": 0.10271248512449387, "three_attempt_rate": 0.020894031771484748, "three_pct": -0.12313501637263184, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.1086442211115055, "opp_three_pct": -0.13378572072638678 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6967795053079633, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.40708896011339074, "record": 0.2884712369703535, "efg_pct": 0.2707149772338164, "opp_efg_pct": -0.3718971754661507, "turnover_rate": 0.008901586407964013, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.013302838004604522, "oreb_pct": 0.20831385774724487, "dreb_pct": 0.05526830682399338, "ft_rate": 0.14655014465788255, "opp_ft_rate": -0.20535727152645628 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5954237429450915, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.28792754740425786, "record": 0.2023496323616451, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.11221459848854387, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.34069783030345885, "prior_net_rating": 0.29826895295368894, "retained_minutes_share": -0.04881242773682448, "rotation_box_production": 0.15247074056959045, "star_box_production": 0.39824303175020764, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2880684324188217, "pace": 0.0671632479978787, "three_attempt_rate": 0.048405150962672755, "three_pct": -0.10746923912201287, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.07317408543364817, "opp_three_pct": -0.20663971628007083 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.297113180463778, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.5594010091584696, "record": 0.536178820930133, "pace": 0.0853670533146303, "three_attempt_rate": 0.16798261501942827, "three_pct": -0.48963369921247957, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.17918056253564466, "opp_three_pct": -0.1862736537925808 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.41918624182442, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.22206563704552748, "record": 0.14987018602655267, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.06977835508719205, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.28568054925462055, "prior_net_rating": 0.27413285900042544, "retained_minutes_share": -0.08308925362326187, "rotation_box_production": 0.16358081251591175, "star_box_production": 0.34887455383189886, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2578815302700659, "efg_pct": 0.1447416821869088, "opp_efg_pct": -0.21734901534152704, "turnover_rate": 0.032325036221303415, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.0031365526284909636, "oreb_pct": 0.20447789106810388, "dreb_pct": -0.055249034751248746, "ft_rate": 0.129827729716909, "opp_ft_rate": -0.2001643142709205 }, "trainingSeasons": 11, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2012, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3875009970902217, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 } } }, "selection": { "id": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "validationLogLoss": 1.7404580157049434, "validationSeasons": 6, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2012 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666655, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 3.198172376999788, "brier": 1.3147020120246053, "championProbability": 0.04083677003846415, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 3.8043917642580527, "brier": 1.3456361852598924, "championProbability": 0.022272740123598558, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.600940559456117, "brier": 1.34254951924125, "championProbability": 0.02729803494397423, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.8094727223367624, "brier": 1.1151144532318873, "championProbability": 0.060236745510696785, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 3.3695569986746765, "brier": 1.2444346993289135, "championProbability": 0.03440487537337779, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.0914494811702653, "brier": 1.1629455880062873, "championProbability": 0.04543604795511968, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 3.3257156546281537, "brier": 1.201716955381636, "championProbability": 0.035946784063570734, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 3.413975841641115, "brier": 1.29518981644969, "championProbability": 0.032910094596171766, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 3.3042059670053336, "brier": 1.1942880800632514, "championProbability": 0.03672836379373921, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 3.274985711725731, "brier": 1.1912724436749595, "championProbability": 0.0378174095709849, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 3.250440084185817, "brier": 1.172187947169604, "championProbability": 0.03875714767026665, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.4351503012558764, "brier": 1.3261442151392946, "championProbability": 0.03222056707626312, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 3.0949595367746037, "brier": 1.1081692297874528, "championProbability": 0.045276844470353156, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.974878896753959, "brier": 1.0438873269717435, "championProbability": 0.051053616388460205, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 3.1427467888050034, "brier": 1.1797896213744368, "championProbability": 0.043164072328924205, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.5473649023382134, "brier": 1.014435713475841, "championProbability": 0.07828769014431534, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.3683268647338678, "brier": 1.1769066645101585, "championProbability": 0.034447224020217514, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 3.600940559456117, "brier": 1.34254951924125, "championProbability": 0.02729803494397423, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004883665425255229, "strength": 0.00456366106453802, "strength_record": 0.003786499632311351, "adv_record": 0.012737185593421149, "adv_strength": 0.009436924955689588, "adv_strength_record": 0.01309984761461965, "adv_full": 0.022997903518477764, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010034852911268597, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.023224358189667567, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009648509810052113, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.020824338395496994, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012646647058888693, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.022024876099936835, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.019306254082506552, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03245671371397192, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02814655855840671, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019771057106178897, "adv_selected": 0.003786499632311351 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00014766439521572672, "strength": 6.680494901093964e-05, "strength_record": 6.235804662409479e-05, "adv_record": 0.0009848743306117734, "adv_strength": 0.0003005099678698832, "adv_strength_record": 0.0006802513790552244, "adv_full": 0.0010965401361984837, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00022337336761437632, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001573971300629246, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.000580201872945945, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012110581153675427, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004945418079253497, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001383276938368385, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003230344726952644, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0010823520848975688, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00039817672831982614, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0014361093216990217, "adv_selected": 6.235804662409479e-05 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008271809433314115, "strength": 0.009508365839524524, "strength_record": 0.007400905092611585, "adv_record": 0.018728836285758842, "adv_strength": 0.01717781488402542, "adv_strength_record": 0.021612048299552693, "adv_full": 0.01604692865086578, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01695399973302293, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01574413781629806, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010682503095112558, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.017613098565436077, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010558554987804353, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0216733236922738, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018985556722672745, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02756347924458703, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0715422221661028, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011459454485235632, "adv_selected": 0.007400905092611585 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003177509511798861, "strength": 0.0027471123798546537, "strength_record": 0.00230019104551874, "adv_record": 0.00930053184198596, "adv_strength": 0.0062366597731214985, "adv_strength_record": 0.009167161690857234, "adv_full": 0.004282224822832543, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005753292177940607, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004234327409870322, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005708705584426501, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0060207329414960695, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0022981771202906513, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00904403804324982, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014507423407258795, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00565260758538521, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015886139019331145, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004075630636624929, "adv_selected": 0.00230019104551874 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003177509511798861, "strength": 0.001092668464850482, "strength_record": 0.0014132585478934554, "adv_record": 0.00930053184198596, "adv_strength": 0.0029392193235758257, "adv_strength_record": 0.005451824804680158, "adv_full": 0.008799976068591038, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003136853770596929, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009173841038646284, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0039059010953428155, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008808857366909633, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0015128082244259013, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01608978890109282, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01874027107996985, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007251127066627528, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004512137128797322, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0084404706505941, "adv_selected": 0.0014132585478934554 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.04083677003846415, "strength": 0.022272740123598558, "strength_record": 0.02729803494397423, "adv_record": 0.060236745510696785, "adv_strength": 0.03440487537337779, "adv_strength_record": 0.04543604795511968, "adv_full": 0.035946784063570734, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.032910094596171766, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03672836379373921, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0378174095709849, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03875714767026665, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03222056707626312, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.045276844470353156, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.051053616388460205, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.043164072328924205, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07828769014431534, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.034447224020217514, "adv_selected": 0.02729803494397423 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003924451996656093, "strength": 0.001372475877670873, "strength_record": 0.0017851009337382768, "adv_record": 0.010854071691743109, "adv_strength": 0.0035402192058302355, "adv_strength_record": 0.0064190848547556615, "adv_full": 0.006313425183342992, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0031484881751599027, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007238370606053771, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009612800789693912, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005406715760005517, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0029338000066398634, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01088115725506019, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010435141402042885, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009474961542092902, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.013846475812926912, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005282126568525278, "adv_selected": 0.0017851009337382768 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0005483742874475345, "strength": 0.00043122719160048706, "strength_record": 0.00033735164413270383, "adv_record": 0.00257196802628069, "adv_strength": 0.001376392175129254, "adv_strength_record": 0.0024162359483214484, "adv_full": 0.0024903610386845048, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0011252000420741558, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002956078955951027, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.001443676727709785, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003074066117492128, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0015934818761448573, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0032537419323105995, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00613107272893789, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002939511248570207, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002889340558914117, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002918588166740759, "adv_selected": 0.00033735164413270383 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0031536401724844053, "strength": 0.0027465738366328923, "strength_record": 0.002290679880669644, "adv_record": 0.00924936450249649, "adv_strength": 0.0062356620759271, "adv_strength_record": 0.009154760710732677, "adv_full": 0.007439792755817453, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005756942682977497, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00793279071079323, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011024866011284377, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008349249273606092, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0022840972145678007, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015224203964364226, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02321453791631988, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006221091323448222, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0112173121833655, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009067425903997778, "adv_selected": 0.002290679880669644 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.5776219750862521, "strength": 0.39461377730897373, "strength_record": 0.5154366846488473, "adv_record": 0.4184768479530749, "adv_strength": 0.3591897688096418, "adv_strength_record": 0.3554687169323828, "adv_full": 0.47822359078409626, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2762955868404905, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.4764810486699946, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.3365401384181625, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.44423807443344243, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.6004810196030252, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.34609837297835805, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.268018580917783, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.4770205134739397, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.3146562883564651, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.43661460709929717, "adv_selected": 0.5154366846488473 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0020364716808968716, "strength": 0.000863184915473524, "strength_record": 0.0009831295456197181, "adv_record": 0.006716612792721628, "adv_strength": 0.002424852401861009, "adv_strength_record": 0.004435832994588561, "adv_full": 0.00973531687005178, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017567754210300328, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012788603030634785, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0034904571537332165, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008261812308531135, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00510659130969579, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008999873595042656, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011515497861444401, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009687526868164572, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007676769020844642, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010799337152360415, "adv_selected": 0.0009831295456197181 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0031536401724844053, "strength": 0.0041357665489817515, "strength_record": 0.002843709260654248, "adv_record": 0.00924936450249649, "adv_strength": 0.008708435177740963, "adv_strength_record": 0.011530561006132763, "adv_full": 0.015609762244572112, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00937694257609008, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014911929334917152, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009618406416925738, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.015505818209550243, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00648491455939542, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02020389289379435, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018298052631856774, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01833654515234707, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.022383532930579476, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013026863111249795, "adv_selected": 0.002843709260654248 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020956652591375708, "strength": 0.013345210113495334, "strength_record": 0.01456706154400852, "adv_record": 0.03697312887246367, "adv_strength": 0.022651674942189472, "adv_strength_record": 0.030495966713537125, "adv_full": 0.031149571968099504, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.021747194652334486, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03155387632450405, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06484787938251767, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.023511810717754128, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.018468189753655554, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04406517831243247, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03755728921858968, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04246665544609328, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.041384305574261426, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03480723119370307, "adv_selected": 0.01456706154400852 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 3.976257478431196e-05, "strength": 2.0828882615979497e-05, "strength_record": 1.667972850170199e-05, "adv_record": 0.00037713433339242093, "adv_strength": 0.00011610264755799015, "adv_strength_record": 0.0002840676501518834, "adv_full": 0.0006976723635580918, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 7.896274193385732e-05, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0010554142976588973, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0001738109255544561, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008288309864356975, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005344393198719632, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006350218901894003, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0013252744891728728, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0009376736664214231, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00039928315629085624, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0006908293922692499, "adv_selected": 1.667972850170199e-05 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00861025380178127, "strength": 0.0010249672914788438, "strength_record": 0.002330765539680632, "adv_record": 0.01928645808598592, "adv_strength": 0.0027897454577128066, "adv_strength_record": 0.006198119734326616, "adv_full": 0.0017005549973720829, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002876994315233231, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001920804486105713, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013875814639304663, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00120186057080712, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0003247927902911466, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007160242875807137, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007271951245542988, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0029942999984623178, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010439528628231455, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001913068280838979, "adv_selected": 0.002330765539680632 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005519032771059602, "strength": 0.0020112422551637294, "strength_record": 0.00262232448079042, "adv_record": 0.013929502780937736, "adv_strength": 0.004835647831099483, "adv_strength_record": 0.008422413934319695, "adv_full": 0.01766636972906819, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0055518715692668376, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018798165808816807, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005724794740586138, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.024692577024644762, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006550991812984298, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019045499318742293, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.029602232311080143, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01402000132370083, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.018438365497671295, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01586213710498932, "adv_selected": 0.00262232448079042 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008492016847935883, "strength": 0.00023963106088710392, "strength_record": 0.00031263049797486885, "adv_record": 0.0035418253959220774, "adv_strength": 0.0008521714384288967, "adv_strength_record": 0.0018647545728198742, "adv_full": 0.0038839712054745583, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006757656589282842, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00553940097306592, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0014887438999432612, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003602827397940257, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0028209707015766543, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003455592991583529, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006115667750675913, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00430550089351808, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001502689639686766, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004770402419036383, "adv_selected": 0.00031263049797486885 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00022867019127555046, "strength": 0.0002148425414711083, "strength_record": 0.00014611315704220792, "adv_record": 0.0013562582739400837, "adv_strength": 0.0007795240855590765, "adv_strength_record": 0.001412367907917408, "adv_full": 0.002718825271500808, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00048472586809332214, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004105456524149736, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00030400226178669193, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004688414330318272, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0028490437129455068, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0017987460147858775, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0054355080583072925, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0027404954647585267, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016707095900744024, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002932062312368787, "adv_selected": 0.00014611315704220792 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0006522223016437482, "strength": 0.0004364005786179712, "strength_record": 0.0003725402284732364, "adv_record": 0.0029199204542250147, "adv_strength": 0.0013898516597571798, "adv_strength_record": 0.002503089781027984, "adv_full": 0.0026547349378792415, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009771660344825056, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003419270770176145, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0018410299481983721, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0030916222844174254, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004675103414975703, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0022373761633180727, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004260789484470899, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005063967191822984, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0018088545803339872, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0032663016268591454, "adv_selected": 0.0003725402284732364 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0007764079860372345, "strength": 0.0004184090500627337, "strength_record": 0.00040000748483242564, "adv_record": 0.0033170453836072976, "adv_strength": 0.0013429144490596364, "adv_strength_record": 0.002515645665780857, "adv_full": 0.001954208434846961, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0010105272648390882, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002605705078385706, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0007658668916081024, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003484006236048885, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0023221207329062643, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0024109737720128407, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00784252144901564, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0021941288952521502, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002506505425499213, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0022989329497504134, "adv_selected": 0.00040000748483242564 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.034950053217031735, "strength": 0.03747758168086649, "strength_record": 0.033060956496946556, "adv_record": 0.05375273882465547, "adv_strength": 0.052606114166260695, "adv_strength_record": 0.059380882350740814, "adv_full": 0.13284577982574072, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03716981759330183, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.14759283743065285, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.035694433689995135, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.1555764156753091, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.11451740971943983, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0934553559659274, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.12181857289422808, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06932257941259916, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07914453816144225, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.14499329527875593, "adv_selected": 0.033060956496946556 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0012856431817694408, "strength": 0.0007327265728196457, "strength_record": 0.0007046721677478986, "adv_record": 0.004797346216564491, "adv_strength": 0.002121370802315133, "adv_strength_record": 0.0037491123671705, "adv_full": 0.002068523910164931, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0018697641536253558, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0023725818406891102, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0011825556669573711, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0032919901380883, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001830105189123345, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0027440138458207693, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006473152680103436, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0032774159498683755, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0037367251577132255, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0023029258357345436, "adv_selected": 0.0007046721677478986 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 2.063354516166639e-05, "strength": 9.703989029982375e-06, "strength_record": 7.839457507228354e-06, "adv_record": 0.00023337465977537496, "adv_strength": 6.225285660094847e-05, "adv_strength_record": 0.00016575523778588767, "adv_full": 0.00029064355867772446, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 5.868021471315839e-05, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004498273732350294, "adv_add_prior_roster": 5.809671593078839e-05, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000411779767502073, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001660522597005208, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0003599480311598488, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0012721579689266437, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0004304283972995129, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0001228607556941705, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0003758863156304581, "adv_selected": 7.839457507228354e-06 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00010080594599288791, "strength": 6.77258566120402e-05, "strength_record": 5.1192656631318757e-05, "adv_record": 0.0007448757640444182, "adv_strength": 0.0003038860492148071, "adv_strength_record": 0.0006437059858422614, "adv_full": 0.00039051191315578207, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0002354574174839577, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005153500861272625, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0011622890393916193, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0003193182027954453, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00016222468223988043, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0009405306175227646, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0016060426475842141, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0006911631388227181, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003461924105179608, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.000574964524046663, "adv_selected": 5.1192656631318757e-05 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003924451996656093, "strength": 0.0024603632959972112, "strength_record": 0.002429936270932414, "adv_record": 0.010854071691743109, "adv_strength": 0.005700118148902533, "adv_strength_record": 0.008919989698153257, "adv_full": 0.010228529746987191, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004431418589928264, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012301433290312679, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018509585440209003, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.007987417408266296, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009698053857270498, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01351004428978123, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015484132831907362, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012428722028470559, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009007073509086538, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012320492931086282, "adv_selected": 0.002429936270932414 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008177814343480567, "strength": 0.0005805491402440355, "strength_record": 0.0004889887373330208, "adv_record": 0.0034454638757760656, "adv_strength": 0.0017543478441814234, "adv_strength_record": 0.0030517171670962455, "adv_full": 0.009747396964873834, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012938516145726152, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01220404016657193, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0018840956185404503, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012135179633920395, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01116652131581753, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005177724319440954, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008466425376269583, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009690056110258468, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0031389671154131533, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010067944299735336, "adv_selected": 0.0004889887373330208 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.24191528309968077, "strength": 0.48174745958352105, "strength_record": 0.3592870238349115, "adv_record": 0.22137519318052407, "adv_strength": 0.4226966519159847, "adv_strength_record": 0.3446086040922682, "adv_full": 0.15121534176480783, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.5298498177971399, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.11895774544449578, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.38076202243785984, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.15373345837944555, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.12013847412973774, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.25075871635832253, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.22290363846534195, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.16376958991116844, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.22293836700713165, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.17188057600648518, "adv_selected": 0.3592870238349115 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024336676994886536, "strength": 0.011673704442428627, "strength_record": 0.014704809562094981, "adv_record": 0.04124752634724863, "adv_strength": 0.02030844057209904, "adv_strength_record": 0.028986067105396366, "adv_full": 0.0154309918013593, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018168598574188975, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016502944655325612, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.023894312315224722, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016393812769533462, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.019864828296978065, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0215279874284677, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03827051108605302, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01568736377187638, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.022610408905821534, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.023912215035842017, "adv_selected": 0.014704809562094981 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001815434238830832, "strength": 0.0023307736326232753, "strength_record": 0.0015624347857997355, "adv_record": 0.00617509233523312, "adv_strength": 0.005453914873734357, "adv_strength_record": 0.0076193952764505345, "adv_full": 0.004062022471095654, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0049872006709873, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004390869551773704, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004619895987107409, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004439080301745166, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0025348730385058734, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007327243708043172, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015035895055510095, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004634851163926574, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0057769511134102645, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00669238117817119, "adv_selected": 0.0015624347857997355 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002267550730822701, "strength": 0.0007935215313545706, "strength_record": 0.0009961201461960408, "adv_record": 0.007266108650687178, "adv_strength": 0.0022639361355513195, "adv_strength_record": 0.004305970568415894, "adv_full": 0.002311742998236275, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0020597829745095703, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0027264550407578502, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003137193852910077, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002538629017427081, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002760604426912619, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003236413332437196, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0058218871210147455, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004494605602723926, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0035850311633507303, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0029994590919760044, "adv_selected": 0.0009961201461960408 } } ] }, { "season": 2021, "champion": "MIL", "cutoffDate": "2021-03-01", "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.5713172943443043 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1957368949569003, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.778757798094189 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.140659163622769, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2426613054278612, "record": 0.38246800017375693 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2089019894826767, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.23928184334362995, "record": 0.17565686998136404, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.08866486401627134, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2848133918785244, "prior_net_rating": 0.28168828206071017, "retained_minutes_share": -0.06455125477955002, "rotation_box_production": 0.0995788889093306, "star_box_production": 0.34406382722408424, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2680978772694786, "efg_pct": 0.15491710102406273, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1891850598682607, "turnover_rate": -0.005097242125567031, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.03525842350926626, "oreb_pct": 0.2078464308051748, "dreb_pct": 0.038920525062040176, "ft_rate": 0.11285904201095377, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1928485624641453, "pace": -0.016341713363897087, "three_attempt_rate": 0.08363500972265019, "three_pct": -0.19742988748189683, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.1389181268397748, "opp_three_pct": -0.15989573836745585 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6184808265658437, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.6850305292951661, "record": 0.2587522085147117, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.44509982994139974, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.6162489930711268 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.192250949774595, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.29181467176758513, "record": 0.2066691755419139, "prior_net_rating": 0.2903116503195998, "retained_minutes_share": -0.06497077623315878, "rotation_box_production": 0.09888961746390168, "star_box_production": 0.35294024465502927, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2845549490218445, "efg_pct": 0.1552868631709781, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2636430068085325, "turnover_rate": 0.015675351613672214, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0249374317667175, "oreb_pct": 0.20455856573892442, "dreb_pct": 0.07585865965719195, "ft_rate": 0.11605413018122285, "opp_ft_rate": -0.20300297845647197, "pace": -0.025502452932521135, "three_attempt_rate": 0.07375878540579935, "three_pct": -0.18820940764254598, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.11497692071048002, "opp_three_pct": -0.18444803070349644 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.686051335594434, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.5061829440904567, "record": 0.373903778558612, "prior_net_rating": 0.3735471109965542, "retained_minutes_share": -0.03942874825491322 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.52920945437875, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2584575315762387, "record": 0.19289797466702438, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.10194699432881378, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.29295670841469346, "rotation_box_production": 0.12621202989113764, "star_box_production": 0.36811735167026477, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2616807875515961, "efg_pct": 0.17290126492173197, "opp_efg_pct": -0.19608267706305355, "turnover_rate": -0.018461030261012024, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.04753419246247784, "oreb_pct": 0.19617911168877095, "dreb_pct": 0.06851706303347481, "ft_rate": 0.1019246107964894, "opp_ft_rate": -0.19572201117533067, "pace": -0.026748678820786333, "three_attempt_rate": 0.09361082023184171, "three_pct": -0.192776462160599, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.12296978985039385, "opp_three_pct": -0.15236998393314694 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5770405956177496, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.8117327713477331, "record": 0.2572391459833504, "rotation_box_production": -0.08995951504865993, "star_box_production": 0.6482269851908293, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.6326992825469792 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.246813064197969, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3110185375014922, "record": 0.23192122720676897, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.1595958469510358, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.30678975197536174, "prior_net_rating": 0.3250207131623929, "retained_minutes_share": -0.061660116325549685, "efg_pct": 0.2352793930385276, "opp_efg_pct": -0.24361307882585356, "turnover_rate": -0.016888850653042235, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.0641397353386462, "oreb_pct": 0.23122328932855093, "dreb_pct": 0.05448697037242068, "ft_rate": 0.12683749694474106, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17482868175327157, "pace": 0.011563296770725632, "three_attempt_rate": 0.08609893464750314, "three_pct": -0.18566974435195638, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.13875565145186394, "opp_three_pct": -0.12844384647655205 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.7536623669460547, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.39840070556624224, "record": 0.2955934485829527, "efg_pct": 0.25032412737539367, "opp_efg_pct": -0.3427057739452257, "turnover_rate": -0.013280848777367656, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.01048814597434419, "oreb_pct": 0.22237780643070598, "dreb_pct": 0.10390536532994557, "ft_rate": 0.13746901566672093, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18548908226652255 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6496316220606437, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.29130279658569314, "record": 0.2149429305577674, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.1255590817033438, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.32599011828337093, "prior_net_rating": 0.28778008139132205, "retained_minutes_share": -0.0489247363158046, "rotation_box_production": 0.1169503735274289, "star_box_production": 0.3881939374033676, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.28660823066009916, "pace": -0.040327139074046794, "three_attempt_rate": 0.09476410563584568, "three_pct": -0.18248919423671064, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.10227360295325061, "opp_three_pct": -0.18551979282226538 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.417917981655382, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.5594914727690241, "record": 0.6334594642689456, "pace": -0.1005319269350647, "three_attempt_rate": 0.3083812411309922, "three_pct": -0.6475721423875598, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.2562003098193211, "opp_three_pct": -0.15304618440053216 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.437497479040676, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2171963535968654, "record": 0.1582787473524382, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.06834382143676511, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.27664159698354196, "prior_net_rating": 0.2635658485232387, "retained_minutes_share": -0.08261346993606467, "rotation_box_production": 0.107162345106579, "star_box_production": 0.33215309917206054, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.25848977544226703, "efg_pct": 0.11849860452402629, "opp_efg_pct": -0.18668453121753759, "turnover_rate": -0.0037286782254752045, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.025175666528470902, "oreb_pct": 0.2116817136673777, "dreb_pct": 0.010796438783630997, "ft_rate": 0.12881277585521592, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18293450167130226 }, "trainingSeasons": 12, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2016, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.527618978182171, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 } } }, "selection": { "id": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "validationLogLoss": 2.0062412362408253, "validationSeasons": 7, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2016 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.966666666666666, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 3.631291842601294, "brier": 1.3401239896110761, "championProbability": 0.026481951788590412, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.0866160214838803, "brier": 1.1385823560659583, "championProbability": 0.12410639941719546, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.9442380185627712, "brier": 1.3582536157825646, "championProbability": 0.05264215688408441, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 3.1293881273658366, "brier": 1.095144971088249, "championProbability": 0.04374455516189715, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.0328222662308, "brier": 0.9666413334335244, "championProbability": 0.1309653799065021, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.2843862877995886, "brier": 0.9919978467623127, "championProbability": 0.1018365412600322, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.4154403575548493, "brier": 0.6775915026776327, "championProbability": 0.24281866286956993, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.453569419686419, "brier": 1.0395617344686323, "championProbability": 0.08598611754223112, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.39170430765614, "brier": 0.6520380281609252, "championProbability": 0.24865116521771952, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.081334445300123, "brier": 0.8303279712161957, "championProbability": 0.12476361084898749, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.621556162914952, "brier": 0.7791623822104246, "championProbability": 0.19759097596293737, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.159326417003455, "brier": 0.5741261929737365, "championProbability": 0.3136974109762129, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.087751580919245, "brier": 0.9280103754635817, "championProbability": 0.12396554921137368, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.3722976347809657, "brier": 0.9853429603119412, "championProbability": 0.09326618826938844, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.5319115961048402, "brier": 0.6774499218726473, "championProbability": 0.2161221339581127, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.868006189027399, "brier": 1.2006890488549133, "championProbability": 0.05681208629384943, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.3658334432740713, "brier": 0.6496290102192935, "championProbability": 0.25516791935395605, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 2.9442380185627712, "brier": 1.3582536157825646, "championProbability": 0.05264215688408441, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0006806821123661448, "strength": 0.0032380747575777614, "strength_record": 0.0010882610250359578, "adv_record": 0.0034582368774120293, "adv_strength": 0.008005526141824518, "adv_strength_record": 0.007792945516715347, "adv_full": 0.011011014777049532, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006696445549001984, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013155617206981399, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00864756847745379, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016319131242047445, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004937837081517129, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011216858937284293, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018554610166689692, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009093730648608148, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005856435086830472, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010743467336874419, "adv_selected": 0.0010882610250359578 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03216011828775349, "strength": 0.02657510931567443, "strength_record": 0.026953113319714627, "adv_record": 0.05004966204822417, "adv_strength": 0.040190175764436155, "adv_strength_record": 0.04610243546907472, "adv_full": 0.014440071841422923, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02700295984726762, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018435283214496303, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04336807171990846, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.018141177044620465, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01117977224723745, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.025793150152214162, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05138573535823491, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.014284299150677957, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.014679272608005202, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.019878030959696813, "adv_selected": 0.026953113319714627 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003268702023815601, "strength": 0.004781527265736719, "strength_record": 0.0031746454249898075, "adv_record": 0.010260538109211891, "adv_strength": 0.010793037977131686, "adv_strength_record": 0.01251162119252487, "adv_full": 0.015618225511828872, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012009537898902176, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017839289654094526, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03343280950010607, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011412483523950313, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008090593074374002, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018222367515239438, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01447652510384977, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.023198807186639973, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0075371858877681585, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016092473537873075, "adv_selected": 0.0031746454249898075 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002496674519166539, "strength": 0.0016774759688540587, "strength_record": 0.0016105983600109108, "adv_record": 0.008512663631873411, "adv_strength": 0.0048356243933780725, "adv_strength_record": 0.0068229541991685185, "adv_full": 0.002770115632319293, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005968695155347753, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002979140070540153, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009142959105883957, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003916927112758383, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0020584320694493853, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0044406559475686416, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007908933643724053, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0036097411266290454, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003751453509278468, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0030418034617144614, "adv_selected": 0.0016105983600109108 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001875146433542031, "strength": 0.0018983393020858684, "strength_record": 0.001461648069337427, "adv_record": 0.006980584150905379, "adv_strength": 0.005316518491571909, "adv_strength_record": 0.006946442485368225, "adv_full": 0.003115408958494811, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006334918268316196, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003951158425659993, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011289634584991328, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004229417090548087, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0037206220732556783, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005212595980089603, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010603035055240647, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.004969308377848612, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0020385572472195216, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00353107851516304, "adv_selected": 0.001461648069337427 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00040346017566195874, "strength": 5.768556539448586e-05, "strength_record": 0.00010656575068674608, "adv_record": 0.002406668484819579, "adv_strength": 0.00036526143626872695, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008254506768383416, "adv_full": 0.0007591228192393298, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008195646028002786, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008949118749117477, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003148838654366274, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0009541299257377047, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00048391692391774925, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0009723427810775605, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00276258400316855, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0009308895957441583, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00018716570384670516, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0014607073816347259, "adv_selected": 0.00010656575068674608 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003268702023815601, "strength": 0.003045953029338926, "strength_record": 0.002528593602601657, "adv_record": 0.010260538109211891, "adv_strength": 0.007638862429366706, "adv_strength_record": 0.009827463855163969, "adv_full": 0.018638471382930163, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008173498054819773, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020978743293323682, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02778146061881589, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.015566344979429067, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.021322414510058382, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012375169133350601, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00859602280680717, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03926050032764945, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.014141789901972145, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014672403820761173, "adv_selected": 0.002528593602601657 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007335260486930665, "strength": 0.025672223651421047, "strength_record": 0.011627935287753756, "adv_record": 0.0179673542982162, "adv_strength": 0.039139336313766565, "adv_strength_record": 0.035268734097324964, "adv_full": 0.02259449524308567, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02781072743840768, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02559534122711913, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04251417059235768, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02324946816926163, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.025627778002944513, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.020104668455100148, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02104502971497142, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03923964633742322, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.022467927923093673, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.022502829932799052, "adv_selected": 0.011627935287753756 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 4.979961836813847e-05, "strength": 0.0003946251048092992, "strength_record": 8.768497076784499e-05, "adv_record": 0.0005644979955411576, "adv_strength": 0.0015948718594079902, "adv_strength_record": 0.0016240600650363343, "adv_full": 0.001316950223519078, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0019906226140596907, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0013603651185177333, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004912489225012248, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012322292188740203, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005065313993760198, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0023123170990904953, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002739630305823533, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002077492100076428, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008281750061664571, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001753694424706872, "adv_selected": 8.768497076784499e-05 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007004160678572533, "strength": 0.005705210112707836, "strength_record": 0.005305795319043544, "adv_record": 0.01740125114042644, "adv_strength": 0.012357724070654648, "adv_strength_record": 0.01563969099910567, "adv_full": 0.009516518389935847, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02035121993253962, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008892316131207447, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012981521968513375, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.015528521831068263, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03343893364146615, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006584565921785883, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012332496767215168, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.021125441660791274, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010067012092285199, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011464673103350866, "adv_selected": 0.005305795319043544 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00020308348777168928, "strength": 0.00019878356273647012, "strength_record": 0.00013572993281776974, "adv_record": 0.0014954719908130982, "adv_strength": 0.0009428818771117178, "adv_strength_record": 0.0014260013215908244, "adv_full": 0.002242271406028131, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002087684951151344, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0022659046427226264, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009045462172814362, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0014366094590758975, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00041244670999320124, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0056607174644578125, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0032996250623640007, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0036680478023847288, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016989170317201709, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0019884619127646446, "adv_selected": 0.00013572993281776974 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.001875146433542031, "strength": 0.005015046819557656, "strength_record": 0.0023862741628028357, "adv_record": 0.006980584150905379, "adv_strength": 0.011194811049204998, "adv_strength_record": 0.011686545219030375, "adv_full": 0.008875448219447857, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013502954584879448, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0090858794142514, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02097605316533048, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00956660157424685, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.014470573760152924, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007887009353867115, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011050936976444662, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01686642521254089, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0043443141804469475, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012125931863141585, "adv_selected": 0.0023862741628028357 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06331735507772271, "strength": 0.06096504420944961, "strength_record": 0.05976235062758708, "adv_record": 0.08004264825122584, "adv_strength": 0.07594971733964868, "adv_strength_record": 0.08062318973674311, "adv_full": 0.04686694022175517, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.059711361056899066, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05724675348983303, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.09818225061828305, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0431915704003535, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.05578422555162455, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04701540283527295, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06390352941029315, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.058404753039405184, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02082000961646512, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0650236949315483, "adv_selected": 0.05976235062758708 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.08884343239034698, "strength": 0.043616698988467185, "strength_record": 0.06095141916464433, "adv_record": 0.10122355806034644, "adv_strength": 0.05875634386103826, "adv_strength_record": 0.07135139088113257, "adv_full": 0.13340254692014994, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10480283557081346, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.1194989218535945, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.09712762229183622, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10361195441090344, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04340837684086509, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.17374483877908878, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.10172862290742443, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1093576674838753, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.12374414458792973, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10405754639538566, "adv_selected": 0.06095141916464433 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003268702023815601, "strength": 0.003535023060945386, "strength_record": 0.002725893737449181, "adv_record": 0.010260538109211891, "adv_strength": 0.008562446149047857, "adv_strength_record": 0.010643171533782384, "adv_full": 0.01104302843398342, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011904850538667511, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011550054146911208, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018323886895160808, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012222375316728335, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01575190097132635, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007280926396819285, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009091896699803034, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02069425725299123, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006072971094372763, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012450216411201632, "adv_selected": 0.002725893737449181 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003268702023815601, "strength": 0.0017257158257743435, "strength_record": 0.0018983447160705678, "adv_record": 0.010260538109211891, "adv_strength": 0.0049418609234948225, "adv_strength_record": 0.007249487167571286, "adv_full": 0.01875824325191258, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00928856007518472, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018398706306981292, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0196623354387538, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01737789630963565, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006512802673983619, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01871036939321161, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011733817780154192, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.026582207819039062, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015977545326413236, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011397968195892417, "adv_selected": 0.0018983447160705678 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.026481951788590412, "strength": 0.12410639941719546, "strength_record": 0.05264215688408441, "adv_record": 0.04374455516189715, "adv_strength": 0.1309653799065021, "adv_strength_record": 0.1018365412600322, "adv_full": 0.24281866286956993, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08598611754223112, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.24865116521771952, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.12476361084898749, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.19759097596293737, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.3136974109762129, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.12396554921137368, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09326618826938844, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.2161221339581127, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.05681208629384943, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.25516791935395605, "adv_selected": 0.05264215688408441 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 1.5758321343581875e-05, "strength": 4.3518515358556935e-05, "strength_record": 1.5186601332163864e-05, "adv_record": 0.0002542715540728044, "adv_strength": 0.00029429906665500577, "adv_strength_record": 0.00041073133493143936, "adv_full": 0.0011205591205248667, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000522622642184743, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001307464362266714, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002382285221483352, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001226819453993871, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010036109786614345, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006751411547233436, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.001155079420867679, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002439546638182142, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 6.938310695578892e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0018268329861130103, "adv_selected": 1.5186601332163864e-05 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008497835442601616, "strength": 0.003206160995202196, "strength_record": 0.0012252826091702633, "adv_record": 0.004033172658960399, "adv_strength": 0.007944978449007085, "adv_strength_record": 0.00804740386140345, "adv_full": 0.014633434419370024, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004894910694689743, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01933638725431654, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014719003147707162, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.016311956664525437, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01048989674814482, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011933203733033575, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.017314455251401132, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010708961443130745, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005324440439817412, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.015037997582022187, "adv_selected": 0.0012252826091702633 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004214074942415323, "strength": 0.0035311958186712514, "strength_record": 0.0031385016252609343, "adv_record": 0.012236022027713827, "adv_strength": 0.00855533955360644, "adv_strength_record": 0.01110279758018233, "adv_full": 0.009715472939712859, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015325601378304765, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009247514276735556, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012581492972446323, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014187183195452844, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0018588622588951809, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01934312925369558, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.024801338774384382, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009982790396416228, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00852139186231409, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007530970437032035, "adv_selected": 0.0031385016252609343 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0006806821123661448, "strength": 0.00019255330621351875, "strength_record": 0.00026197921557825985, "adv_record": 0.0034582368774120293, "adv_strength": 0.000920146358962646, "adv_strength_record": 0.0017192251648555118, "adv_full": 0.00483585654281923, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0022039812308231013, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004983571073848421, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009817942147883441, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003906633531127585, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001088937275882285, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007503290753964775, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004925604795190039, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006661566218963988, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0018994732604937098, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0034236030687723224, "adv_selected": 0.00026197921557825985 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00040346017566195874, "strength": 6.577556724331188e-05, "strength_record": 0.00011386144649380224, "adv_record": 0.002406668484819579, "adv_strength": 0.00040391749536117775, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008855491521056428, "adv_full": 0.0024537567145541507, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009604141292993072, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002839554770772549, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005390210947924628, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0026295451564898762, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.000612838563721908, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002700062930849613, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0034666178979012477, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0031679231562280075, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0003879112615569559, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0024835644225696006, "adv_selected": 0.00011386144649380224 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.044677992948030466, "strength": 0.010932490831589306, "strength_record": 0.02067729318474076, "adv_record": 0.06285827682585804, "adv_strength": 0.02034398198491506, "adv_strength_record": 0.030286098695382454, "adv_full": 0.07099622406428517, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.032485128148211855, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07616068155377914, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04687651682454415, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06598699810087441, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.05200541394012962, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04887139623144557, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05448541128401709, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.06333662476101984, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.019238314513151895, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.08290344159703042, "adv_selected": 0.02067729318474076 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.06331735507772271, "strength": 0.0554219269381338, "strength_record": 0.05695593069498026, "adv_record": 0.08004264825122584, "adv_strength": 0.07059816351592968, "adv_strength_record": 0.07661099361628358, "adv_full": 0.031878794812432644, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08018029588388935, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03144964082578296, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.062284674687909915, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.038058222322194864, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03908881299008596, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.039535553376159466, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.039968172826841404, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.061316368068634546, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.09358572640049385, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.026613108042344645, "adv_selected": 0.05695593069498026 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.009932432432013088, "strength": 0.0016135525921489903, "strength_record": 0.003407971778069888, "adv_record": 0.022168018718403317, "adv_strength": 0.004693741604888686, "adv_strength_record": 0.008435513152471007, "adv_full": 0.005621487708154007, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004419539734725286, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007874790736363577, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01974983421764689, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005987928503019053, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.011885807105621857, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0053375682913266356, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008038202131597269, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010924858361994779, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005655681475264732, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006043939081487722, "adv_selected": 0.003407971778069888 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00040346017566195874, "strength": 0.00018278498235443515, "strength_record": 0.00019069616612658026, "adv_record": 0.002406668484819579, "adv_strength": 0.0008841498332618782, "adv_strength_record": 0.0015307477358307963, "adv_full": 0.001101712651799342, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0008310571109909261, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0016094494926041027, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006205617189422308, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012247326836024037, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001386320602164488, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001371177620830475, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0037330029276772293, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0013809720933152495, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00025639328836678173, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0020754992738089262, "adv_selected": 0.00019069616612658026 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015140535840145497, "strength": 0.002030987779683741, "strength_record": 0.004840508910328177, "adv_record": 0.029691197412844903, "adv_strength": 0.005599014441647851, "adv_strength_record": 0.010244913432316101, "adv_full": 0.004075708838273746, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009626264412682183, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00421932106752293, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.020112533495403543, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005184427686173154, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00365955224690026, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005890394169979129, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011156931383999024, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006660850143516638, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0038719951962370193, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0058751964111106265, "adv_selected": 0.004840508910328177 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003268702023815601, "strength": 0.009451116175776472, "strength_record": 0.004477184538717892, "adv_record": 0.010260538109211891, "adv_strength": 0.018195551465369532, "adv_strength_record": 0.01802078854262366, "adv_full": 0.012286906239086513, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01955543503880409, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012432104435272496, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03821805133096336, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0090950155560124, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012316519592905183, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.015034670185570101, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010158659241225752, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.028855900576126647, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015990139141102002, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011630353935279319, "adv_selected": 0.004477184538717892 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.6106775837383166, "strength": 0.6008126217348864, "strength_record": 0.6699350332429517, "adv_record": 0.3850834062951194, "adv_strength": 0.4387027247294, "adv_strength_record": 0.4023586097366042, "adv_full": 0.2749049066638965, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.4227005632164875, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.24460807760341308, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.17026935022620449, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.33752098558037535, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.30082085769877587, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.34795576836713665, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.37214981328222796, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.18090188895849693, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.5332515451512815, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.26382822975697023, "adv_selected": 0.6699350332429517 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0006170990826490998, "strength": 0.00030637880501149014, "strength_record": 0.000313559630850874, "adv_record": 0.0032309856200845, "adv_strength": 0.0013136115171394564, "adv_strength_record": 0.0021685023188060056, "adv_full": 0.002587643182418266, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0018516326976177368, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0031518912584561384, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006091741711884922, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0031317379939824383, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002378001490355967, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002349138574392912, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004167490751072981, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0041764001035368955, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0009226418053009603, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0033743618669943303, "adv_selected": 0.000313559630850874 } } ] }, { "season": 2022, "champion": "GSW", "cutoffDate": "2022-03-01", "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.4987792136347866 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.3124432990080175, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.7869946927523617 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.127179551448773, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4230623102189472, "record": 0.17586506184957232 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2183375267722907, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2454995284014919, "record": 0.13607919674329022, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.08395094766727483, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.28152262434017994, "prior_net_rating": 0.31674162502128655, "retained_minutes_share": -0.07928580733371757, "rotation_box_production": 0.1279803132632556, "star_box_production": 0.4037341486137151, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2760646782045916, "efg_pct": 0.1479701653125899, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17208857148552326, "turnover_rate": -0.02805973223388493, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.0390853643535875, "oreb_pct": 0.22478598505264874, "dreb_pct": 0.0863761264083495, "ft_rate": 0.08773718424579742, "opp_ft_rate": -0.22661709087994067, "pace": 0.025550389365008863, "three_attempt_rate": 0.0657334798506672, "three_pct": -0.17403090612538724, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.17795137914916462, "opp_three_pct": -0.13120057921064984 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.468100767939469, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.879395519869092, "record": -0.0012409016875862967, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.5255218936013557, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.5827362014658586 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2249157585135726, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2985545411409199, "record": 0.16924065081682946, "prior_net_rating": 0.3247382581508862, "retained_minutes_share": -0.0779949594146242, "rotation_box_production": 0.1235300720765381, "star_box_production": 0.40972650508815356, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2941580515673641, "efg_pct": 0.14765644033913017, "opp_efg_pct": -0.24819256881399152, "turnover_rate": -0.006640619478367381, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.01915720503480772, "oreb_pct": 0.22161450781743447, "dreb_pct": 0.12368825581239595, "ft_rate": 0.09188917609437226, "opp_ft_rate": -0.23745811650792778, "pace": 0.017378894171493336, "three_attempt_rate": 0.05752060025175083, "three_pct": -0.1667206123994593, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.152890516844719, "opp_three_pct": -0.15627690600099167 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5242579571021473, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.1837280555372856, "record": 0.19025578661568082, "prior_net_rating": 0.7786430757150955, "retained_minutes_share": -0.3581864687924813 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4356044304520674, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.26583148985332355, "record": 0.15182018509109133, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.09812923115673551, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.29013095431748853, "rotation_box_production": 0.1583574743144178, "star_box_production": 0.44095893430538624, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2670249113638528, "efg_pct": 0.16931666421305122, "opp_efg_pct": -0.17648631038601914, "turnover_rate": -0.04480818525174599, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.047808974514280296, "oreb_pct": 0.2122181673501642, "dreb_pct": 0.12384319147299251, "ft_rate": 0.07386458631419236, "opp_ft_rate": -0.23337320072424592, "pace": 0.018179786528612095, "three_attempt_rate": 0.07329475725334936, "three_pct": -0.1696576306361732, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.16538120979932475, "opp_three_pct": -0.12159248358537943 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4576050415299, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.8779952134917643, "record": 0.0648068826395985, "rotation_box_production": -0.002387423957881952, "star_box_production": 0.7591394028132618, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.6474853842488208 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1108772332986545, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3292406219804273, "record": 0.19184371750254178, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.1694854308193523, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2992311392546547, "prior_net_rating": 0.38666685386580835, "retained_minutes_share": -0.07529150834833823, "efg_pct": 0.24384438234416916, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2297081121623115, "turnover_rate": -0.05069019524651297, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.0738338899552478, "oreb_pct": 0.2504032111519025, "dreb_pct": 0.1131269048273868, "ft_rate": 0.1019815946301272, "opp_ft_rate": -0.20687665053325655, "pace": 0.07291215716756431, "three_attempt_rate": 0.0564969258818312, "three_pct": -0.15357490802555984, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.19215757485630464, "opp_three_pct": -0.08357151454783843 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6704235186927034, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.41726896104240396, "record": 0.2536450107395922, "efg_pct": 0.2884519195940221, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2976400711958869, "turnover_rate": -0.044438902570845804, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.005519405783841919, "oreb_pct": 0.2390248641059366, "dreb_pct": 0.16543650582423014, "ft_rate": 0.119019777461155, "opp_ft_rate": -0.21279395874944415 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6149648736506843, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.30468091823128507, "record": 0.1795166927901981, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.12729441157537827, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.3222602419655525, "prior_net_rating": 0.33416444559094227, "retained_minutes_share": -0.06467660950635142, "rotation_box_production": 0.13955414332294758, "star_box_production": 0.44490632915942574, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.30249399858876685, "pace": -0.0032834986089039383, "three_attempt_rate": 0.08471652381828278, "three_pct": -0.16466180247330334, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.1287128611874746, "opp_three_pct": -0.1483351728946397 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3071671834615644, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 3.001044366346537, "record": -0.30012630241441585, "pace": -0.04900102050512783, "three_attempt_rate": 0.2796409178959277, "three_pct": -0.7869934764420699, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.4796479337083917, "opp_three_pct": -0.005814662585950639 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.488814966020827, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.21872555659170362, "record": 0.1140439492505746, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.06658989275839307, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2643432779364761, "prior_net_rating": 0.29756478658374963, "retained_minutes_share": -0.10042786750839075, "rotation_box_production": 0.14678793016224825, "star_box_production": 0.3960005117282193, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.26615363117351126, "efg_pct": 0.1211384516210114, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1518755979538195, "turnover_rate": -0.021897089239747952, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.015689143387234913, "oreb_pct": 0.2277608875447215, "dreb_pct": 0.05481404303311271, "ft_rate": 0.10636898460033317, "opp_ft_rate": -0.21138445349181798 }, "trainingSeasons": 13, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2021, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.382395786318659, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 } } }, "selection": { "id": "strength", "ridge": null, "validationLogLoss": 2.059303490184662, "validationSeasons": 8, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2021 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666657, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 2.1883923911740397, "brier": 1.0647553270442536, "championProbability": 0.11209681166687306, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 1.651725749610653, "brier": 0.7557405661779225, "championProbability": 0.1917187643839296, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.8102955972814383, "brier": 0.8758720339218227, "championProbability": 0.16360576823392997, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 2.2193987437811638, "brier": 0.9145193122105596, "championProbability": 0.10867443036258373, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.8365027126491544, "brier": 0.784889677000297, "championProbability": 0.15937382866503846, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.937639150851536, "brier": 0.8054977410531609, "championProbability": 0.14404361391529863, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.3410438531490745, "brier": 0.9165673008758786, "championProbability": 0.09622713878444045, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.7670665159989634, "brier": 0.760123678315961, "championProbability": 0.17083339152579127, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.481112143042994, "brier": 0.9409283711615141, "championProbability": 0.08365014291667493, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.351369657585864, "brier": 0.9207347094721555, "championProbability": 0.09523862853269441, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.1642570173905495, "brier": 0.8651641990020843, "championProbability": 0.11483522348327618, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.7370463766225277, "brier": 1.0045365403472366, "championProbability": 0.06476134530908272, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.135692728778889, "brier": 0.8766195367493875, "championProbability": 0.11816270731058624, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.267597250261917, "brier": 0.8744882064887223, "championProbability": 0.10356071185699421, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.209642548383111, "brier": 0.8739486467445574, "championProbability": 0.10973986819884904, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.1112383979012042, "brier": 0.5090998144981425, "championProbability": 0.3291510885558336, "topPick": "GSW", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.6233627676594407, "brier": 0.9551876834438028, "championProbability": 0.07255845488867879, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 1.651725749610653, "brier": 0.7557405661779225, "championProbability": 0.1917187643839296, "topPick": "PHX", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0036720442796482865, "strength": 0.009804410637054612, "strength_record": 0.0057838109015876235, "adv_record": 0.010426583956816829, "adv_strength": 0.01578567049167853, "adv_strength_record": 0.017353731567089928, "adv_full": 0.011484208845359448, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013792624035469967, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01360847960889546, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011572709807627216, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.013777162072923264, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.018043702247498364, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.013119571842851604, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02622830460404592, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009523942681133622, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0019782105204277324, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0194602399427574, "adv_selected": 0.009804410637054612 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006090446556419741, "strength": 0.003547905903142261, "strength_record": 0.004190148606018071, "adv_record": 0.014750584096676251, "adv_strength": 0.0071608321869398184, "adv_strength_record": 0.009631357463764771, "adv_full": 0.010233029520342588, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007196827633125871, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012176249129294664, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.036791125743073395, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006558853298669425, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003794441184846916, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01939464186288611, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015574387592978236, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009936145866454152, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0016265146771158331, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011611551395798387, "adv_selected": 0.003547905903142261 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01429463220320928, "strength": 0.06636372190114083, "strength_record": 0.03290191098112536, "adv_record": 0.02647656221558284, "adv_strength": 0.0698426336351581, "adv_strength_record": 0.06327132737760889, "adv_full": 0.05089789106554251, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07816256363203533, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04487433159192947, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03818155182567826, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05806220776058397, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0240155877715459, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06636515266702546, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06571274761286709, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.042547316167302486, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.12912595801248133, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04563617265044002, "adv_selected": 0.06636372190114083 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0032888841741887595, "strength": 0.003998766375086312, "strength_record": 0.003313503159864276, "adv_record": 0.009667784160893127, "adv_strength": 0.007858980859610584, "adv_strength_record": 0.00987034584732561, "adv_full": 0.007162135146266661, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007831188363414343, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007644799279503168, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005853415800956936, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00870694377793145, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00878140169525838, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006729452026038471, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009168019000008637, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010032310426600207, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0033274638477623786, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0086997759732029, "adv_selected": 0.003998766375086312 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03476444722308264, "strength": 0.011180202795013717, "strength_record": 0.018724547959620634, "adv_record": 0.048696694972571744, "adv_strength": 0.017482833936101026, "adv_strength_record": 0.022555445936020452, "adv_full": 0.00707381053858485, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01604016505734632, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008755438337294995, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02531753489992426, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008653185263741738, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01571389351715773, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009283550084360432, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.029288804198563376, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.008392954981379293, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0006796519854915968, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.017367423551615656, "adv_selected": 0.011180202795013717 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01908559288721958, "strength": 0.039325561368646164, "strength_record": 0.028264242959827667, "adv_record": 0.032280034068456524, "adv_strength": 0.04649345612308538, "adv_strength_record": 0.0468349111792052, "adv_full": 0.018582853922567998, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05124632386057638, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01680824671285917, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008339340352021649, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03486978168908503, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.016311883709894465, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.023671910633729254, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.06639161378076572, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012012744053751802, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02659486230114027, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0242349395501383, "adv_selected": 0.039325561368646164 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01908559288721958, "strength": 0.030355680329993216, "strength_record": 0.024443779579448092, "adv_record": 0.032280034068456524, "adv_strength": 0.03801501369122342, "adv_strength_record": 0.03989698110196299, "adv_full": 0.027277236968070148, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.041154527229560825, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026699191681098553, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.031368027356011796, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.03096926178088567, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.026074902609200087, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.028805458732180534, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03500133829582556, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03695234938971697, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03390194441838473, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02670142240580146, "adv_selected": 0.030355680329993216 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01908559288721958, "strength": 0.026561138317816212, "strength_record": 0.022679722812172284, "adv_record": 0.032280034068456524, "adv_strength": 0.03426540182770001, "adv_strength_record": 0.03673038370902776, "adv_full": 0.1147014932823481, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03349173120437794, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12446302471145602, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06189484385857422, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.11348609199521677, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.29836836758407936, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03639979114245482, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03156652212312773, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.17654347325918504, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.021420118643283633, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.1029569388266719, "adv_selected": 0.026561138317816212 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 9.419825159689621e-05, "strength": 5.194459533979274e-05, "strength_record": 5.085066141015728e-05, "adv_record": 0.0008459677756240694, "adv_strength": 0.0002681581631292357, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005034707547407223, "adv_full": 0.00036701821218720253, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00034994869494314864, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004343610082778431, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0003186139441132966, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00039653411972193005, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00048214635228293533, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0003688484078353189, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0008424381949260568, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0008050454543759502, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 4.927567183507034e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0006632293891091866, "adv_selected": 5.194459533979274e-05 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11209681166687306, "strength": 0.1917187643839296, "strength_record": 0.16360576823392997, "adv_record": 0.10867443036258373, "adv_strength": 0.15937382866503846, "adv_strength_record": 0.14404361391529863, "adv_full": 0.09622713878444045, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.17083339152579127, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08365014291667493, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.09523862853269441, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.11483522348327618, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.06476134530908272, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.11816270731058624, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.10356071185699421, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.10973986819884904, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.3291510885558336, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.07255845488867879, "adv_selected": 0.1917187643839296 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00010034670432353239, "strength": 5.484247583031277e-05, "strength_record": 5.4072089733340496e-05, "adv_record": 0.0008834503672468918, "adv_strength": 0.00027972145183963236, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005233404599209867, "adv_full": 0.0007631565918766204, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003110787498312155, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0011160683288366435, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0002518321296406535, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000941639199807873, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0010944406405837693, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0006825751789440492, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0017171303978554052, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0010356716966892674, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 3.994790019538082e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0010000185801492013, "adv_selected": 5.484247583031277e-05 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0003629626769166053, "strength": 0.0017689479626382726, "strength_record": 0.0007123875606104125, "adv_record": 0.002133167572529505, "adv_strength": 0.004167819694880587, "adv_strength_record": 0.004988430108732059, "adv_full": 0.0015257874468898572, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004213122041885401, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017344771993794516, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009460167091026702, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013477477739576088, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0005013885762274254, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004815048217177535, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.007843499667239469, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001583958074142329, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001072901750788134, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002741529596093719, "adv_selected": 0.0017689479626382726 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0053673104322249, "strength": 0.004313498900555755, "strength_record": 0.004394809184670215, "adv_record": 0.01352607617171545, "adv_strength": 0.008335933478169771, "adv_strength_record": 0.010760253402700712, "adv_full": 0.010011365849934548, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00938007908818967, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010627582045837835, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01725483512740512, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.007207164516288597, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006151485674660459, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014198637871508265, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014601489530512298, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01191505668936713, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0009210524209538468, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013223616012734401, "adv_selected": 0.004313498900555755 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002195656345630151, "strength": 0.0016145860115416683, "strength_record": 0.0016345277569615327, "adv_record": 0.00732832831102636, "adv_strength": 0.0038821428610735977, "adv_strength_record": 0.0054487639151686, "adv_full": 0.012711520802307651, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004335697276121118, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01440877044248428, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01312455931462073, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009908095460978232, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01127128373319123, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008844111088569475, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008371697619717395, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01850249868714288, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0009925253214225877, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.015054463253669912, "adv_selected": 0.0016145860115416683 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07936910075877923, "strength": 0.06598344362286702, "strength_record": 0.07594623109614769, "adv_record": 0.08576669688734356, "adv_strength": 0.069531203316255, "adv_strength_record": 0.07236987309098604, "adv_full": 0.051843321987571425, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06698801227694415, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.049768552547426265, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04109466039572858, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.056832437984833166, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.03132917739692231, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07550447136147174, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08481497890356464, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03199426340746059, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06294729439922843, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.05947285706841382, "adv_selected": 0.06598344362286702 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05718396172011806, "strength": 0.060851230594460924, "strength_record": 0.06180684760173373, "adv_record": 0.06850096766018514, "adv_strength": 0.0652878995400966, "adv_strength_record": 0.06703865662575903, "adv_full": 0.03835482218674577, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06640626506715913, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03840720031850775, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.041324611043619605, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04402358497619267, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04724547420853171, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03963805428826617, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.047891222309820805, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04870842435859937, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06343575475370677, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03689709560664723, "adv_selected": 0.060851230594460924 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02113471600029609, "strength": 0.024752507758714487, "strength_record": 0.0229167803865967, "adv_record": 0.03461802339808413, "adv_strength": 0.03243679424132661, "adv_strength_record": 0.03545043785207164, "adv_full": 0.13528114911407255, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.030561320111250033, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.13484073523302634, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.058166176414638615, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.13055560635201005, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.07253191595111524, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07904578011362258, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04743348036573351, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.1139663560015778, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.03860323365323805, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10365315738494708, "adv_selected": 0.024752507758714487 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007811215015136391, "strength": 0.010938581574162274, "strength_record": 0.008901431606782122, "adv_record": 0.017494753503852344, "adv_strength": 0.017188296207776857, "adv_strength_record": 0.019733644954605844, "adv_full": 0.009912015941813332, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017115948793044917, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010186996830335132, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004301137015759149, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01522866969954319, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.036717735107324095, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006099712910476183, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009086828707252657, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02299993206713497, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.02314449475014656, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009741188888674167, "adv_selected": 0.010938581574162274 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0011815543560718834, "strength": 0.002047680151067931, "strength_record": 0.0013786591338435586, "adv_record": 0.004791673652363326, "adv_strength": 0.004670111172856973, "adv_strength_record": 0.006005622575390382, "adv_full": 0.011645388779653508, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004864809408285732, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01317603275480278, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009632291700559861, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011040201879740735, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00614988563234853, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009701967361012802, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011232929694860663, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010368411420124514, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004215353844582283, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013871464190334252, "adv_selected": 0.002047680151067931 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0011815543560718834, "strength": 0.002047474224244812, "strength_record": 0.001378581360305464, "adv_record": 0.004791673652363326, "adv_strength": 0.004669745935525578, "adv_strength_record": 0.006005248542244739, "adv_full": 0.012365911318234793, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005217891161801745, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.013524638743704367, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007752312839138812, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01041605309311807, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005569881419613733, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0151343958929879, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014701331078869648, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010220089385814547, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0028181718377724577, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.011664200463873032, "adv_selected": 0.002047474224244812 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00025906407194747536, "strength": 0.00018226830473371645, "strength_record": 0.00016878248762127655, "adv_record": 0.0016928059814339054, "adv_strength": 0.0007117885578768534, "adv_strength_record": 0.001188340557575327, "adv_full": 0.0014785108096192715, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009507243425482802, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0014444613457764643, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0003196158442596278, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0024176227482958623, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004119312268717184, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.001966978052599696, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0030555486662415727, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0014542035017756152, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008293127730774109, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00103938284228202, "adv_selected": 0.00018226830473371645 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 8.860707199250826e-05, "strength": 0.00011363061279992642, "strength_record": 7.655482442437223e-05, "adv_record": 0.0008112091688100357, "adv_strength": 0.0004929035553535633, "adv_strength_record": 0.0008135165548496268, "adv_full": 0.0009111314525270088, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0006246762481052498, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0010154037535614394, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00022688470349885518, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0014983522443908707, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0020450931862421033, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.000599121167868862, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0016001041925239672, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001543694371043937, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00013272257347854871, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0011785284218805247, "adv_selected": 0.00011363061279992642 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.028726457887341583, "strength": 0.01645047288813111, "strength_record": 0.021179259120350694, "adv_record": 0.04272583437124731, "adv_strength": 0.023607418350705872, "adv_strength_record": 0.028213564755876473, "adv_full": 0.045111844535625875, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.024161077377582208, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.049194300003852866, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03508239470185259, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04298104838791602, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.08520205926127626, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021630241921600145, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.026353489268051658, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.07230278388249008, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005457280679220618, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.05781915642952819, "adv_selected": 0.01645047288813111 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.5112576017627676, "strength": 0.24326199188388198, "strength_record": 0.39322482578151075, "adv_record": 0.3076149365994643, "adv_strength": 0.19179399796003224, "adv_strength_record": 0.18860686305700552, "adv_full": 0.07953842801644159, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.18317581770441765, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07481864914360795, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.1942699862317577, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.07580474124970635, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0631336199504952, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.1304092942536727, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.11667738893156494, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.08943905582272901, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.08568629548719861, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0811954547546926, "adv_selected": 0.24326199188388198 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0011815543560718834, "strength": 0.0005951805458304241, "strength_record": 0.0006893666406285338, "adv_record": 0.004791673652363326, "adv_strength": 0.0017865781587154044, "adv_strength_record": 0.002794084839297328, "adv_full": 0.0016247196100123344, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017670867161189308, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0019804238557331612, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006467174887753177, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013935966260244853, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0006051115111793031, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003950206412719245, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005231732135788525, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0020797086037401243, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005048896330390537, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0022772852261051814, "adv_selected": 0.0005951805458304241 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0005923386957837464, "strength": 0.0004971831518410369, "strength_record": 0.00044434878856563836, "adv_record": 0.0029844881301530723, "adv_strength": 0.0015533212503460766, "adv_strength_record": 0.0023644287769080175, "adv_full": 0.001955575639923795, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0015854357124317378, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0024141517292629866, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0019946636576924537, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0023628432705614577, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014347975418407615, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002382280397110673, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.005512436693854931, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001963488014571866, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00017234698703700048, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00351527813583646, "adv_selected": 0.0004971831518410369 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008319428413029057, "strength": 0.006199775326541052, "strength_record": 0.0021612132871638746, "adv_record": 0.0037672144149751437, "adv_strength": 0.01105280167240949, "adv_strength_record": 0.011594398414616338, "adv_full": 0.004028404437296883, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010644300482800363, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00422680323857273, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00580721969316352, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005033721607473381, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.008093909920045321, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005088705221420785, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011054169470286401, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00434934545398434, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001300059823787041, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007791950678601071, "adv_selected": 0.006199775326541052 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010270580575594067, "strength": 0.012290627523598847, "strength_record": 0.010866322545973127, "adv_record": 0.021106503717974238, "adv_strength": 0.01881883787009304, "adv_strength_record": 0.021682806543069085, "adv_full": 0.008830422723557546, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019199248384768147, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008899579703935581, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.018537057459916347, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00844844849666613, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010488605914364008, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010404733499609131, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014315670193123044, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011718414233035426, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.009097997373965864, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013129795729325405, "adv_selected": 0.012290627523598847 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03714957500932185, "strength": 0.16165898647310253, "strength_record": 0.08655657379800925, "adv_record": 0.05096348472972407, "adv_strength": 0.13957880058272465, "adv_strength_record": 0.11858712123185672, "adv_full": 0.22584491724107872, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12472179904257057, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.22629086810681417, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.21613752569771102, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.17971704132923186, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.1310036944130054, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.24361662892340413, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.17536659311359057, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.12457793800198895, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.15018568678416044, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.23127496694274144, "adv_selected": 0.16165898647310253 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002195656345630151, "strength": 0.0014689934062931621, "strength_record": 0.0015501390933633956, "adv_record": 0.00732832831102636, "adv_strength": 0.0036070745622771502, "adv_strength_record": 0.005139034889320606, "adv_full": 0.0022547892291068855, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003676318777502596, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002810039697257508, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003919101929581308, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002526137861227772, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002670836753314183, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0039859711560098115, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009803391799445409, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0027905558478387767, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005875886192448518, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0035684612192562414, "adv_selected": 0.0014689934062931621 } } ] }, { "season": 2023, "champion": "DEN", "cutoffDate": "2023-03-01", "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.5292713716552964 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.3021050150939226, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.8626172400873686 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.0948821249154816, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4834023001247931, "record": 0.1794538027888139 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.187148818336651, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.26049338939841676, "record": 0.1587674632312569, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.07604502559980708, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.3137315641278024, "prior_net_rating": 0.28166066865734973, "retained_minutes_share": -0.0858402936305682, "rotation_box_production": 0.1601685072659084, "star_box_production": 0.3568774390985849, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.27864692186536066, "efg_pct": 0.17073932093371516, "opp_efg_pct": -0.204864446364126, "turnover_rate": 0.022009965710215747, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.0013001127267268156, "oreb_pct": 0.2210272006425079, "dreb_pct": 0.13225267366723187, "ft_rate": 0.043136315204023085, "opp_ft_rate": -0.17462589383828356, "pace": 0.03954766214424197, "three_attempt_rate": 0.1264131039782527, "three_pct": -0.1850836870867006, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.20582487421251933, "opp_three_pct": -0.1514088801552217 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4539833329627587, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.8858712941475729, "record": 0.024521889543490046, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.5062915221224438, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.6472241353215978 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1740436204563935, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3187619438037373, "record": 0.19446814680325197, "prior_net_rating": 0.2880543587507957, "retained_minutes_share": -0.0856404840618009, "rotation_box_production": 0.1523286054109851, "star_box_production": 0.36023452595145844, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.29850163242277955, "efg_pct": 0.16812918842495242, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2950441191683622, "turnover_rate": 0.04999322945314128, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.06669244240038359, "oreb_pct": 0.21694922849138387, "dreb_pct": 0.17415867372906957, "ft_rate": 0.04627290669351769, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18556876193454763, "pace": 0.03046727261164986, "three_attempt_rate": 0.11851289987558193, "three_pct": -0.17973125639280746, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.1790172615306789, "opp_three_pct": -0.1791895124452005 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.519463977762241, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.2902924046325985, "record": 0.23756301878788666, "prior_net_rating": 0.6540106732929232, "retained_minutes_share": -0.3874069416416535 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4262450112447116, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2776260556323177, "record": 0.16922099545724695, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.08875927347603407, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.3198221461735017, "rotation_box_production": 0.18562138461619576, "star_box_production": 0.39138810589413425, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.26916993664957395, "efg_pct": 0.1906423176818666, "opp_efg_pct": -0.20575707487228395, "turnover_rate": 0.00641365590023957, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.01171624905168756, "oreb_pct": 0.20870621983792922, "dreb_pct": 0.16842640899389888, "ft_rate": 0.034350625699998444, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18349770236409893, "pace": 0.034754493089825075, "three_attempt_rate": 0.13138556261148468, "three_pct": -0.1812231755715487, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.193655201112951, "opp_three_pct": -0.1437426372614514 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.425010816625528, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.9888806588137091, "record": 0.09338502403609401, "rotation_box_production": 0.07409707085120301, "star_box_production": 0.6083078989206834, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.6343601382299279 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1804515825568624, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.34239399393749814, "record": 0.21493416819880948, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.16520253373537802, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.3264815968449889, "prior_net_rating": 0.3479122985174862, "retained_minutes_share": -0.08483314312718233, "efg_pct": 0.263743289285859, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2483991850328809, "turnover_rate": -0.0040736520282837595, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.029286756826764817, "oreb_pct": 0.24245793811170488, "dreb_pct": 0.15604190013943364, "ft_rate": 0.06054459490042814, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15926355342989837, "pace": 0.08266470192839012, "three_attempt_rate": 0.12274649620370878, "three_pct": -0.1594179653728802, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.22248516058376183, "opp_three_pct": -0.11372354942963238 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.611008986480057, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.4299228150645129, "record": 0.2710402581504749, "efg_pct": 0.31749950524962206, "opp_efg_pct": -0.32186637253634265, "turnover_rate": 0.014530310240222511, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.039784402344437926, "oreb_pct": 0.22015161340117412, "dreb_pct": 0.2039153457915455, "ft_rate": 0.08024936003724964, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16676029937532547 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5763684710519326, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3309449171888217, "record": 0.20713386210146745, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.10874912326563806, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.3867137816264144, "prior_net_rating": 0.3045268604216625, "retained_minutes_share": -0.07387483348842624, "rotation_box_production": 0.1726383557127424, "star_box_production": 0.3920864741638148, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.3089844226711483, "pace": 0.012042297253584335, "three_attempt_rate": 0.14493383477231359, "three_pct": -0.1684581734211166, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.1596797408210918, "opp_three_pct": -0.1586707856870454 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.296331112897292, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 3.0837514361678817, "record": -0.24338854000452897, "pace": -0.041157406287590695, "three_attempt_rate": 0.3658232584900975, "three_pct": -0.846877423615051, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.5396158467668, "opp_three_pct": -0.04791400836782285 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.3357509028964243, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.23300514488087548, "record": 0.1348603074192432, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.06107745312703424, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.29463741999254717, "prior_net_rating": 0.2587066238971375, "retained_minutes_share": -0.1134455625587592, "rotation_box_production": 0.1859946589355629, "star_box_production": 0.34750269492048164, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.26999272633242866, "efg_pct": 0.15637190079034066, "opp_efg_pct": -0.18418720940137606, "turnover_rate": 0.037776927703536904, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.021511963379939124, "oreb_pct": 0.21332252743346658, "dreb_pct": 0.09731458235233481, "ft_rate": 0.059641588740886695, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15910272177367457 }, "trainingSeasons": 14, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2022, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4091698953565235, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 } } }, "selection": { "id": "strength", "ridge": null, "validationLogLoss": 2.0140170745653276, "validationSeasons": 9, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2022 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666656, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 1.6882243234181749, "brier": 0.8029761952343795, "championProbability": 0.18484746206044, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 2.374258534963468, "brier": 0.9549491129884601, "championProbability": 0.09308348177693107, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.948615689633826, "brier": 0.8588729119754928, "championProbability": 0.14247115944255612, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 1.9072561427627432, "brier": 0.8108140560742458, "championProbability": 0.14848725597639773, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.4054390117526125, "brier": 0.9236728470821957, "championProbability": 0.09022587669357743, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.3532467480510926, "brier": 0.8988200434456135, "championProbability": 0.09506002469138014, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.01072955228269, "brier": 0.8645500190300135, "championProbability": 0.13389095857417982, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.5593346054733632, "brier": 0.9462802452144825, "championProbability": 0.07735619571160227, "topPick": "CLE", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.841503375385979, "brier": 0.8079489574052822, "championProbability": 0.15857884328235583, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.0711187221957417, "brier": 0.858419516095584, "championProbability": 0.12604469380405628, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.9563566960209329, "brier": 0.85481879639585, "championProbability": 0.14137254695649254, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.152283910136515, "brier": 0.5173258924505179, "championProbability": 0.3159144246510921, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.8217963892800895, "brier": 0.9949533121633773, "championProbability": 0.0594989633494833, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.3812400391866735, "brier": 0.8978640497259273, "championProbability": 0.09243588229545888, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.8839929530640467, "brier": 0.7925742439058056, "championProbability": 0.15198203543259703, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 4.231981628484033, "brier": 1.1318144694778856, "championProbability": 0.014523581670468525, "topPick": "MEM", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.6383574911851102, "brier": 0.7235927455338697, "championProbability": 0.19429891802668134, "topPick": "MIL", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 2.374258534963468, "brier": 0.9549491129884601, "championProbability": 0.09308348177693107, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005760989627472475, "strength": 0.006772975456698691, "strength_record": 0.006102062462727229, "adv_record": 0.012965929568355532, "adv_strength": 0.01107847100042869, "adv_strength_record": 0.013437956121879716, "adv_full": 0.0122176474751426, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011051466405769268, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014837815233283078, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011265136468526338, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011939746155951555, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.016732189905528945, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0092947534040388, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0126068768616286, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01828049025259837, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0024024803880415913, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.015513544996212965, "adv_selected": 0.006772975456698691 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01570703326044853, "strength": 0.012023939335985266, "strength_record": 0.01364861213805258, "adv_record": 0.026242942025183878, "adv_strength": 0.017537842695872722, "adv_strength_record": 0.021044856564208278, "adv_full": 0.001712219263005036, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018011632099958985, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0018989340599588453, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.03471510840776757, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0014213772103441038, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0014465950374118021, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008741989489886802, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01985970086067171, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002846073154484229, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0012285441623154359, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0040128070668187825, "adv_selected": 0.012023939335985266 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.22507817799983088, "strength": 0.2445079434418035, "strength_record": 0.27294566061364606, "adv_record": 0.17053226221418785, "adv_strength": 0.1954367588666187, "adv_strength_record": 0.1788078765227911, "adv_full": 0.11586876636309291, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.17714018719268257, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.11983331415126616, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.2528538465358099, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10085282955143465, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.08733214633145019, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.17938890878547503, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.14572634430740136, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.11283256070965829, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.18633717522221574, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.107479345542799, "adv_selected": 0.2445079434418035 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00023696598290609653, "strength": 0.00022432905507286142, "strength_record": 0.0001892344389255942, "adv_record": 0.0013760334033762458, "adv_strength": 0.0007245605648479213, "adv_strength_record": 0.0011769246518866425, "adv_full": 0.0022737846318449414, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009707266551834243, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0026385394434495974, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0009499192471874533, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0020333979924140036, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007288977204951957, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002632464063685078, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.003072417409536665, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0028112881303311897, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00020564809389171044, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.002449627474259371, "adv_selected": 0.00022432905507286142 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002472579449703481, "strength": 0.012158330795098024, "strength_record": 0.005734229876913316, "adv_record": 0.007154383577196807, "adv_strength": 0.017694549559690475, "adv_strength_record": 0.018196504964347358, "adv_full": 0.019403918472869822, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020273121792093365, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01922693116495835, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007493385327733599, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02315149714192787, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.022133856130135885, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.016970546598501293, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02065532246110131, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.023298310898040252, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012712048844682152, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016810745084641143, "adv_selected": 0.012158330795098024 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.038981092632946114, "strength": 0.2280782475782023, "strength_record": 0.11451032767313143, "adv_record": 0.049718074750877576, "adv_strength": 0.18485404826371277, "adv_strength_record": 0.14801894230248752, "adv_full": 0.03974028832855048, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.19104941107112133, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.034898360873168346, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.08620942901260212, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04106433350068792, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.07716596322069028, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.05105906125915771, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.08611498131669895, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04821221716739817, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.1593443134727865, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.06499310150150478, "adv_selected": 0.2280782475782023 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006618350288013588, "strength": 0.010395364799780767, "strength_record": 0.008342080571030416, "adv_record": 0.014294174484705376, "adv_strength": 0.015609522234208075, "adv_strength_record": 0.01786061144760184, "adv_full": 0.009727684343503545, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014446385720065588, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011819890477421942, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01852057106101709, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009277607682898002, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017105363452080323, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010031831965277434, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013209936156461368, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02488473373672937, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008019103892252244, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01063483880633834, "adv_selected": 0.010395364799780767 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.18484746206044, "strength": 0.09308348177693107, "strength_record": 0.14247115944255612, "adv_record": 0.14848725597639773, "adv_strength": 0.09022587669357743, "adv_strength_record": 0.09506002469138014, "adv_full": 0.13389095857417982, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.07735619571160227, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.15857884328235583, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.12604469380405628, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.14137254695649254, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.3159144246510921, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0594989633494833, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09243588229545888, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.15198203543259703, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.014523581670468525, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.19429891802668134, "adv_selected": 0.09308348177693107 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 6.32869196357813e-05, "strength": 8.467948373410339e-05, "strength_record": 5.781090674864786e-05, "adv_record": 0.000543962956700962, "adv_strength": 0.00033223757930261167, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005672402125811456, "adv_full": 0.00032122578696200496, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004108752911479431, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00044852324787381104, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00024273018733737915, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0003710429084703964, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00029308314428505794, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0005173849094398384, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0016190088502726187, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0004530322822097371, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 1.9806987692966707e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005556404602651621, "adv_selected": 8.467948373410339e-05 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007637408834916606, "strength": 0.007784604141967327, "strength_record": 0.007554559419541311, "adv_record": 0.015808141109523766, "adv_strength": 0.012384128958498867, "adv_strength_record": 0.015030336689542347, "adv_full": 0.009787592506196418, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012730905980139704, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011241725789159336, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.026167771873161823, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006834498116590097, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005314642948455209, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.023629148609228295, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01982121928825708, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012479087882902149, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0031160895470438645, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010575933658817472, "adv_selected": 0.007784604141967327 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 3.8239459304672527e-05, "strength": 3.0300402124569725e-05, "strength_record": 2.5186100273524953e-05, "adv_record": 0.00038173268226293427, "adv_strength": 0.00014596110375191486, "adv_strength_record": 0.0002826389629230446, "adv_full": 0.0011371725327545376, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00019662582214758346, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0014688178394626173, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00010091764986638129, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0013799207101691281, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00024986127835794475, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0012583563467574786, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002031608569118945, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0007241787935953248, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 8.424547896816166e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0009521539362607976, "adv_selected": 3.0300402124569725e-05 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0021813658087465487, "strength": 0.0018025372076478257, "strength_record": 0.0017970582294616812, "adv_record": 0.00655112236688345, "adv_strength": 0.0038403718908878322, "adv_strength_record": 0.005334690975062579, "adv_full": 0.0026672402777253214, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004281635056355879, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0031799481870573194, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004830496529148579, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002449354468530873, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0057862019636785895, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0027990189627366746, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.004852846609861427, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005613300886554993, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0006837179195422712, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004398533970624802, "adv_selected": 0.0018025372076478257 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.007570411899011035, "strength": 0.005839650276453336, "strength_record": 0.00637356189208854, "adv_record": 0.015710532053901074, "adv_strength": 0.009838850832806287, "adv_strength_record": 0.01250475410346508, "adv_full": 0.006326555873729931, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010929620668861002, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.006544728208826567, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.012332737517178687, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006443782027117763, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003002488331935408, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011193605705451576, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.020893841706984776, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00674513854656182, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0010905727271230672, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010954802089734712, "adv_selected": 0.005839650276453336 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.003277926425027023, "strength": 0.003986518142349829, "strength_record": 0.0034433318693042787, "adv_record": 0.008722668478472287, "adv_strength": 0.007248614633683874, "adv_strength_record": 0.009149841906336525, "adv_full": 0.018432533002141434, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008178756235063494, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019157621088800383, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008739104273533908, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.020667220441653644, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005316061323410037, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.019047407027613643, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.020442676832587704, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.013724106433879835, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004135251035105562, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.016298346424504943, "adv_selected": 0.003986518142349829 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.044280359262125216, "strength": 0.09008140217351418, "strength_record": 0.07116626547906064, "adv_record": 0.05437864052537835, "adv_strength": 0.08788938213541211, "adv_strength_record": 0.08274269394581535, "adv_full": 0.13113198673152904, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10039355142869641, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10090961559794971, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.056976797181659315, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.11188576133291643, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04203640593844912, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.14847106165911905, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0757410306908016, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.10767873715659163, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.26008037267656003, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.094057580675721, "adv_selected": 0.09008140217351418 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010124998912253446, "strength": 0.005600739035269702, "strength_record": 0.0071381165191675595, "adv_record": 0.019273382908735776, "adv_strength": 0.00951535879393283, "adv_strength_record": 0.012471778964093955, "adv_full": 0.01877204061316617, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012455010450809472, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01649393135890439, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010266972122246544, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.015949929338622805, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0070541872404064196, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02071162803023833, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.012705879774862074, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.028551578082615964, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.032169497709733486, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.012104347220343717, "adv_selected": 0.005600739035269702 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.27583998515817937, "strength": 0.07576039297046452, "strength_record": 0.15285589101855498, "adv_record": 0.19674105064481884, "adv_strength": 0.07651686744077547, "adv_strength_record": 0.08616606634427075, "adv_full": 0.27103866312541613, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08520490268281866, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.2533679414502624, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07216412240289483, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.2896450600115702, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.1059089751226171, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.2090417339456096, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.16923391124027842, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.167585859451702, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.061493590589679153, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.19695767192743224, "adv_selected": 0.07576039297046452 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005760989627472475, "strength": 0.0046411985356718645, "strength_record": 0.0049066828503610705, "adv_record": 0.012965929568355532, "adv_strength": 0.008186645702941928, "adv_strength_record": 0.010561026158013898, "adv_full": 0.006927019852494033, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009600948593304185, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007258184447832066, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014021035618039804, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005317164072410741, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005387445629631572, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0103510385039165, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.011498474884802363, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.012031677785639912, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002770414240861351, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009311253944792045, "adv_selected": 0.0046411985356718645 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004345583980801503, "strength": 0.01153442684840093, "strength_record": 0.007260966841651603, "adv_record": 0.01063473107981517, "adv_strength": 0.016964051740281053, "adv_strength_record": 0.018433484136459056, "adv_full": 0.019433186790184312, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018640425897463897, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020123468224876442, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007997223384549446, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.021379977772208625, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01081596802385612, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02166943424691722, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.021950809083520848, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.020173216260549444, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.016056125284837488, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014925140533858844, "adv_selected": 0.01153442684840093 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.020080336988512387, "strength": 0.042076215060570805, "strength_record": 0.03157125313967854, "adv_record": 0.031189071544759518, "adv_strength": 0.047791227156022596, "adv_strength_record": 0.04771767341103502, "adv_full": 0.0480209152258123, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.046768915238778894, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04851403205061268, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.02933345914555515, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0478833389993834, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.022388280148708452, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06878399277468461, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04908745890139412, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03911486927107314, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.16317865705419893, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0294756297993226, "adv_selected": 0.042076215060570805 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00281420887906663, "strength": 0.01472176987157866, "strength_record": 0.006807077581628059, "adv_record": 0.00783579457378904, "adv_strength": 0.020622241792264167, "adv_strength_record": 0.020776989292691745, "adv_full": 0.0037343982223412226, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.020688877327475694, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003639176761217574, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0046138947975260585, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.005383556554608571, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009719636047175201, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004953163284352082, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00900970145956374, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007191942427984089, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012361513917407684, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004448296487054058, "adv_selected": 0.01472176987157866 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0014068647993240196, "strength": 0.001323440655836434, "strength_record": 0.0012222489245349393, "adv_record": 0.004813022913838744, "adv_strength": 0.0029990592519075886, "adv_strength_record": 0.004225441661313293, "adv_full": 0.005080744064409574, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0038054094131449497, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005596260132562501, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0008787147667901705, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0075966935611661525, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0024438407395224356, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005887960101406472, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010410601805402153, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00475561603975783, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0019197794584947074, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004007655358197652, "adv_selected": 0.001323440655836434 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07929983630218589, "strength": 0.052353014892611995, "strength_record": 0.06853134866114964, "adv_record": 0.08190701782948133, "adv_strength": 0.05692507704954981, "adv_strength_record": 0.06142937439347395, "adv_full": 0.06123128099112228, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05651883431586898, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06734361627362125, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06025130509542537, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0625316294714152, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.11576339977032069, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.031242855524791394, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0439108834354303, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.11203995316599481, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015186696857611358, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.08145678510941737, "adv_selected": 0.052353014892611995 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.010124998912253446, "strength": 0.016743344432659537, "strength_record": 0.0134254576283705, "adv_record": 0.019273382908735776, "adv_strength": 0.02285915250264215, "adv_strength_record": 0.025065070535990892, "adv_full": 0.014358060465789968, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.024835786159852366, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014378663909530473, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.052723712895877725, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009296292243579292, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00862842860339391, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.021165500536195717, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.021647164345763747, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02015799913777862, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0031036672653415305, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.025089964030334103, "adv_selected": 0.016743344432659537 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0037481126456242442, "strength": 0.0043271091990955135, "strength_record": 0.0038461238835947307, "adv_record": 0.009584540312618003, "adv_strength": 0.007740162656008302, "adv_strength_record": 0.009747860457565814, "adv_full": 0.0011229369268657588, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0068560449291256076, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0014995987546620709, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0033319288109712334, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0016971033945721707, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0017395253324319444, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003167832104574399, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014252958722084746, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0012694164684060195, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008719884943884787, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0022576187487895858, "adv_selected": 0.0043271091990955135 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.027861646315926043, "strength": 0.028140776809364113, "strength_record": 0.029222971368843262, "adv_record": 0.03926350031625078, "adv_strength": 0.03463617107815649, "adv_strength_record": 0.037936733573831025, "adv_full": 0.01626871858131958, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02693015123711859, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02158350475795637, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015743831858948554, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02493409986150227, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.08418387971362644, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011984700267636645, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03757297207784621, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.019709876638636877, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01048432960548849, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.02649399183513792, "adv_selected": 0.028140776809364113 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 6.32869196357813e-05, "strength": 1.1791491539816246e-05, "strength_record": 1.8540012419932133e-05, "adv_record": 0.000543962956700962, "adv_strength": 6.85800378131518e-05, "adv_strength_record": 0.0001614462504595243, "adv_full": 0.00015800192480086139, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 9.483236284044414e-05, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00023536898705118418, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0002494243684399575, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00012092740382463136, "adv_add_player_availability": 9.665347983238213e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00027487351569241506, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000882548207526188, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0001920989555478489, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 8.390405435128284e-07, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00047689787634942505, "adv_selected": 1.1791491539816246e-05 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005014694001306279, "strength": 0.009607769796226847, "strength_record": 0.006991922508954337, "adv_record": 0.011761107978039432, "adv_strength": 0.014655632484648413, "adv_strength_record": 0.016601456576965358, "adv_full": 0.009315981338804171, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015369071700534719, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00909727707705655, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01121610207948132, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008585495052467373, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.012103542272753147, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.008644093466215102, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009003924744218192, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01727120684716392, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0199372009108086, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01086882876939295, "adv_selected": 0.009607769796226847 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005014694001306279, "strength": 0.007338107316222235, "strength_record": 0.00598526754109624, "adv_record": 0.011761107978039432, "adv_strength": 0.011812314286907972, "adv_strength_record": 0.013981283626962345, "adv_full": 0.010261043187080168, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010790969342998877, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012946539214689393, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06364761321960545, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00557396528395341, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00295917673540085, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.026277958803555716, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.022091998140196127, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009045122064155593, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0031695182244306803, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.014422173459420502, "adv_selected": 0.007338107316222235 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0037481126456242442, "strength": 0.008965599017123176, "strength_record": 0.005854990406533358, "adv_record": 0.009584540312618003, "adv_strength": 0.013866281012847677, "adv_strength_record": 0.015508420554564759, "adv_full": 0.0096374345271657, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014018723216975781, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011238827954172843, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006118014357061862, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.012959850781116115, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010248879762867116, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011308732758361716, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.02765701896026767, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.008344275938861589, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.003313229227484836, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.013717825184972374, "adv_selected": 0.008965599017123176 } } ] }, { "season": 2024, "champion": "BOS", "cutoffDate": "2024-03-01", "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.5896658123111425 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.2626201278608047, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.8858326181019398 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1259378135991946, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3874784561091726, "record": 0.3330151601816321 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2037586113080954, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2530071560034397, "record": 0.1679383246335084, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.1035421809219307, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.28027955278435485, "prior_net_rating": 0.2613812509855328, "retained_minutes_share": -0.14549178950509456, "rotation_box_production": 0.1736795512287738, "star_box_production": 0.4236479862676125, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.28074772408715837, "efg_pct": 0.21724885113769019, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1376564665745893, "turnover_rate": 0.08218785892711097, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0225529330262004, "oreb_pct": 0.2286354388355482, "dreb_pct": 0.14248184737459987, "ft_rate": 0.016316233255981406, "opp_ft_rate": -0.15759120593632037, "pace": 0.002023504364267649, "three_attempt_rate": 0.07247119295146, "three_pct": -0.14642255675687119, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.17640967569596824, "opp_three_pct": -0.18223194323940095 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.409657954894752, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.8131026811023899, "record": 0.16403543200670373, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.5418949620686909, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.5922276342897276 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2125727189580906, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.309866126910728, "record": 0.20468189219169922, "prior_net_rating": 0.26992008313907057, "retained_minutes_share": -0.140771269061525, "rotation_box_production": 0.17115401052200463, "star_box_production": 0.4265103370756262, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.30027162605260055, "efg_pct": 0.21884201091984246, "opp_efg_pct": -0.21950654246399912, "turnover_rate": 0.09929913588694159, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.07971214557695376, "oreb_pct": 0.22920208766448694, "dreb_pct": 0.1771521813639428, "ft_rate": 0.0209145635630584, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16916636464629928, "pace": -0.004453659822163115, "three_attempt_rate": 0.06826658045827994, "three_pct": -0.13999299668125625, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.1562687339318714, "opp_three_pct": -0.205601077983449 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.451667917524615, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.251252987214808, "record": 0.4196874227408962, "prior_net_rating": 0.6239359140037402, "retained_minutes_share": -0.49644707739229205 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3907323823398143, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.26554246790999564, "record": 0.1709902016418715, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.11226075799104263, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.2859874849598003, "rotation_box_production": 0.19238722908359576, "star_box_production": 0.458664825008429, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.26795646962585196, "efg_pct": 0.2351437025534138, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1391973559391831, "turnover_rate": 0.06750028150779014, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.01266318257619286, "oreb_pct": 0.21521584240785244, "dreb_pct": 0.17758344762199213, "ft_rate": 0.005740869337502142, "opp_ft_rate": -0.159054048762867, "pace": -0.0024339733582026896, "three_attempt_rate": 0.08052959526757375, "three_pct": -0.14129028895349563, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.17125492494873723, "opp_three_pct": -0.17579604113653421 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3781454045650685, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.9086916241671034, "record": 0.16427151727690856, "rotation_box_production": 0.07908960258603102, "star_box_production": 0.7117223770263197, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.6281148962361406 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.077634815314828, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.34370919701678737, "record": 0.24196805195374865, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.2045247632896857, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.29053435208580386, "prior_net_rating": 0.33363945175710724, "retained_minutes_share": -0.15757088090457608, "efg_pct": 0.3297237832032981, "opp_efg_pct": -0.18021513743375114, "turnover_rate": 0.0636733600785568, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.012811631330340321, "oreb_pct": 0.24992622862741612, "dreb_pct": 0.17588965524749114, "ft_rate": 0.03664215652966749, "opp_ft_rate": -0.13675931151038362, "pace": 0.04761286277179995, "three_attempt_rate": 0.05347396861280636, "three_pct": -0.11258385601019608, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.19836875055577047, "opp_three_pct": -0.15227620251536406 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.6320877267600604, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.43513164032680207, "record": 0.307285558947874, "efg_pct": 0.38093560984673625, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2613247304895826, "turnover_rate": 0.06048956286585737, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.04349454576084457, "oreb_pct": 0.236095287280231, "dreb_pct": 0.2201672076716933, "ft_rate": 0.056369097546927635, "opp_ft_rate": -0.13930460952809604 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.5568556278654064, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3185265379700286, "record": 0.21863402367079982, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.13382973045631424, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.350009069760534, "prior_net_rating": 0.28158470254783985, "retained_minutes_share": -0.13330939368737668, "rotation_box_production": 0.18304385678959373, "star_box_production": 0.461100666829048, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.31071781879883986, "pace": -0.004210268739201295, "three_attempt_rate": 0.09617168324313816, "three_pct": -0.1263226540100973, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.14473384056734762, "opp_three_pct": -0.17951494572714277 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2550972969139673, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.6343985628088837, "record": 0.48996507178329074, "pace": 0.0006680818612701614, "three_attempt_rate": 0.19294941284284972, "three_pct": -0.3969661889549953, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3512065206166994, "opp_three_pct": -0.11839190912261072 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4613207296246538, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.23462309776481413, "record": 0.1577085597156613, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.08818809390132634, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.27652011969085216, "prior_net_rating": 0.24010505254268932, "retained_minutes_share": -0.1638377807096005, "rotation_box_production": 0.19181577309606512, "star_box_production": 0.41407175256321754, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2710199615884652, "efg_pct": 0.19414663947357189, "opp_efg_pct": -0.13773748150821638, "turnover_rate": 0.08788953269327761, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.0381663845122146, "oreb_pct": 0.22755936522434161, "dreb_pct": 0.11008534139436643, "ft_rate": 0.03339359528160515, "opp_ft_rate": -0.14463269029866166 }, "trainingSeasons": 15, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2023, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3320886549393824, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 } } }, "selection": { "id": "strength", "ridge": null, "validationLogLoss": 2.0500412206051415, "validationSeasons": 10, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2023 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666653, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 1.0864447856860293, "brier": 0.47953708134163237, "championProbability": 0.33741394273043956, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 0.7375893409113026, "brier": 0.3116870895578253, "championProbability": 0.47826546195310254, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 0.8044935173945756, "brier": 0.3425078806086282, "championProbability": 0.44731442617146894, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 1.5066798031115995, "brier": 0.6480040131910021, "championProbability": 0.22164466155299498, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 1.0051266352207735, "brier": 0.4447280011492728, "championProbability": 0.3659982835957837, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 1.171254676852321, "brier": 0.5182943544615087, "championProbability": 0.309977775238409, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 1.015386258594978, "brier": 0.441813631108469, "championProbability": 0.3622624758100887, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.0620755102955097, "brier": 0.4744372125418739, "championProbability": 0.3457374834340763, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 1.1650508222472287, "brier": 0.5142367984428713, "championProbability": 0.31190680982482655, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 0.8072179627416651, "brier": 0.3310513008707079, "championProbability": 0.4460974010763699, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 1.175983115182853, "brier": 0.5216586758521338, "championProbability": 0.3085155242506005, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 1.9752874151728816, "brier": 0.9104452326423073, "championProbability": 0.13872143586721988, "topPick": "DEN", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 0.8280970587677828, "brier": 0.3397517506098277, "championProbability": 0.4368798524964297, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.4887528859864023, "brier": 0.6436020045539956, "championProbability": 0.22565389626962062, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 1.2506763526830382, "brier": 0.5599256979850903, "championProbability": 0.28631108408859135, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 0.5549316586464184, "brier": 0.1957161076450435, "championProbability": 0.5741114954124643, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 1.41757154360303, "brier": 0.6282319470153335, "championProbability": 0.24230172216709092, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 0.7375893409113026, "brier": 0.3116870895578253, "championProbability": 0.47826546195310254, "topPick": "BOS", "correct": 1.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0033002907035778986, "strength": 0.0015589161225948729, "strength_record": 0.001840781536967686, "adv_record": 0.007748341454466231, "adv_strength": 0.003538550967670524, "adv_strength_record": 0.005057848680848977, "adv_full": 0.0038282071343103733, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0030874648965184015, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004942186309750286, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0028787046263117465, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0039449955717898826, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003376562982129357, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003967015764247805, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0074404419524236225, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003981312380477847, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002951729369319337, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005448358063487831, "adv_selected": 0.0015589161225948729 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0016928105038996365, "strength": 0.001696320399791978, "strength_record": 0.0013785903413744648, "adv_record": 0.004776110727514078, "adv_strength": 0.0037891775971225896, "adv_strength_record": 0.0048063021478507075, "adv_full": 0.005303038641651664, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0038121536700620197, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005936153887009308, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006309989492918842, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00459369045382445, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0024303695972179595, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00631468042379891, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008661281766149604, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0057522167454449385, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0025284706055935515, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.006871110544061012, "adv_selected": 0.001696320399791978 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.33741394273043956, "strength": 0.47826546195310254, "strength_record": 0.44731442617146894, "adv_record": 0.22164466155299498, "adv_strength": 0.3659982835957837, "adv_strength_record": 0.309977775238409, "adv_full": 0.3622624758100887, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.3457374834340763, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.31190680982482655, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.4460974010763699, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.3085155242506005, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.13872143586721988, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.4368798524964297, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.22565389626962062, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.28631108408859135, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.5741114954124643, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.24230172216709092, "adv_selected": 0.47826546195310254 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0002853807945496531, "strength": 3.824788425730112e-05, "strength_record": 6.91982746300561e-05, "adv_record": 0.0013143652914464775, "adv_strength": 0.00017553007348144025, "adv_strength_record": 0.0003826541047174019, "adv_full": 0.00023668516540628656, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00020944632673627986, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003274645479912664, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00029312112938790314, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00025463281362800847, "adv_add_player_availability": 7.996870689291144e-05, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00042659827304942013, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0012507207724753184, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00029506434463847666, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00011848227373409914, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0003662743767958351, "adv_selected": 3.824788425730112e-05 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.005150484643789886, "strength": 0.002272801017876503, "strength_record": 0.0028362794636578796, "adv_record": 0.010697894905721412, "adv_strength": 0.0048025739640277865, "adv_strength_record": 0.006774971196661102, "adv_full": 0.012835821275181705, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005187513950835731, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.014881868423284225, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.003166512297263111, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014792264302928564, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.007568046123400346, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00822455910543573, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009643041941463749, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.014961851585807833, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00973121514414124, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009527543779505019, "adv_selected": 0.002272801017876503 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05516310079999156, "strength": 0.0328427478313376, "strength_record": 0.040920712852486746, "adv_record": 0.0596537322792752, "adv_strength": 0.04179448761279675, "adv_strength_record": 0.04770771175386137, "adv_full": 0.047524223253537334, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.049255619474326655, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0474975133026999, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04866285046954411, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.04207792646478808, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.017673963633506925, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06437290692393727, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0654839435540253, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04365662095972298, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.044675276848474325, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.045923696153354156, "adv_selected": 0.0328427478313376 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.019576533794978118, "strength": 0.007786546590198213, "strength_record": 0.010966641866790203, "adv_record": 0.02815574709857985, "adv_strength": 0.013023116697766887, "adv_strength_record": 0.01728622735956634, "adv_full": 0.016599517786223383, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011681259207803064, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019290824901730147, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014874530180941401, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01847694832793475, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.018465734992846514, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.01028697910593807, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015314384685496134, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02691768462643992, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012877627667895563, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0193591778258992, "adv_selected": 0.007786546590198213 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.07984149944103372, "strength": 0.03037210339631919, "strength_record": 0.04719998783702786, "adv_record": 0.07798599788841087, "adv_strength": 0.03922865861515617, "adv_strength_record": 0.048164195265872026, "adv_full": 0.12023119938864006, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.042180078025491494, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12935017386009598, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.030650068453634806, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.14055992768146325, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.3575398565881341, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.027351283951112238, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04887245985512325, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.145533820709501, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.020084178081096988, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.16628831332305205, "adv_selected": 0.03037210339631919 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 7.772024065983468e-05, "strength": 0.00010340249789871727, "strength_record": 6.23325952518843e-05, "adv_record": 0.0005120547185609557, "adv_strength": 0.00039288294449311436, "adv_strength_record": 0.0005681794028097601, "adv_full": 0.00041049503852190917, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000396300255540914, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000559522408640226, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00017994220833794015, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0006126114895378854, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0002348904044996924, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0005809387795010486, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0029521006251609057, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00033626092666650894, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 6.860617415779628e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0008946402462676452, "adv_selected": 0.00010340249789871727 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01130963556346161, "strength": 0.01258240539375218, "strength_record": 0.01084990922870218, "adv_record": 0.018917790990453265, "adv_strength": 0.01921144237066385, "adv_strength_record": 0.02117132889374434, "adv_full": 0.033599554733761784, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01781097337043013, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03808396753266185, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.015512715856319317, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.033417603305932124, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.016697922488673175, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03219425899290084, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03391414509907556, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.026806706593320795, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.016513177068162053, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.030692970468722502, "adv_selected": 0.01258240539375218 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0026418262172265934, "strength": 0.0047547796880172445, "strength_record": 0.003048698614946936, "adv_record": 0.006594228057874614, "adv_strength": 0.008733225144243201, "adv_strength_record": 0.009505139269908137, "adv_full": 0.010266988454454857, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009909725736682511, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009924350946069848, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0030920041426167784, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014807526642275177, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009168062872134662, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007004446917741941, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01018837696405237, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.014588750055750076, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012030878006792417, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008027185425645554, "adv_selected": 0.0047547796880172445 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01725713222148612, "strength": 0.008802886448898156, "strength_record": 0.011014845580282597, "adv_record": 0.02569656123325622, "adv_strength": 0.01438396131107543, "adv_strength_record": 0.01824493446611288, "adv_full": 0.0034199486554689525, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011894774110004102, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004284468116903258, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007322839097987119, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004874963939568093, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.009042227224561671, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0037359353603823933, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016115151339897882, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005459339112639409, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0028350835236116726, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008648657062845316, "adv_selected": 0.008802886448898156 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05095096653267059, "strength": 0.03512256237612556, "strength_record": 0.04080406577284349, "adv_record": 0.056316642984027145, "adv_strength": 0.04412974814814782, "adv_strength_record": 0.049059575562431644, "adv_full": 0.02417660593967746, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.041032584311571384, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.027019517461018373, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.028515616692525874, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02665482286201979, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02370688726043582, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.028054288603849946, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.048533183980518514, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.023967351236130054, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0213380782185853, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03219965252857795, "adv_selected": 0.03512256237612556 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012317368507391275, "strength": 0.004110232749277563, "strength_record": 0.006101913420263965, "adv_record": 0.020125009932738833, "adv_strength": 0.007761094859667514, "adv_strength_record": 0.011009371169669505, "adv_full": 0.02405373461455998, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008311353808878888, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02735465424733996, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.010096528750874892, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.025565444817128285, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.023293928811469734, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011362104340394457, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018690595699423062, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0259323899557141, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.005110512896215093, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.032666692127828564, "adv_selected": 0.004110232749277563 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008682893900850283, "strength": 0.0003832403549980586, "strength_record": 0.00043296820028265205, "adv_record": 0.002944015027671036, "adv_strength": 0.0011354688676464065, "adv_strength_record": 0.0017894831589330223, "adv_full": 0.0017758313914448996, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0015632419074124984, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0018634647176062312, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0024482180742991127, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0012803230991354961, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00028646653131536446, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0031555507322162174, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0030600696337670084, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0026615991732413646, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0017415299985666878, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0018375049295981639, "adv_selected": 0.0003832403549980586 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.015670680211875718, "strength": 0.005666365154772281, "strength_record": 0.008225241399717378, "adv_record": 0.02396195606491468, "adv_strength": 0.010066654500185488, "adv_strength_record": 0.013827679870040221, "adv_full": 0.009845158431128195, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012018349945828826, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010438846056811248, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006935824187322796, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.011720607965711833, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004036375780039907, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012754242298576739, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.018939957155980187, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010623650324523858, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.011272996770961894, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00934534238086402, "adv_selected": 0.005666365154772281 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0515411829722927, "strength": 0.020866814954175576, "strength_record": 0.030776103520731388, "adv_record": 0.05678869434787734, "adv_strength": 0.02894263778748195, "adv_strength_record": 0.03603304212884979, "adv_full": 0.07812367858015846, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02707006404172213, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09212612704275204, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.04343940211232418, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.07880107799104026, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.08366773324268169, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04234316577411403, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0506926440526929, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.08961820727181839, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.022413151581468446, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0798769822570827, "adv_selected": 0.020866814954175576 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.11612330847414218, "strength": 0.1121736886613674, "strength_record": 0.11734072264145873, "adv_record": 0.1023117139761877, "adv_strength": 0.11305267063534782, "adv_strength_record": 0.11107766950811868, "adv_full": 0.05306461934962605, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.14076166181428448, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04980630003012917, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0443749163304391, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06712271638360638, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0316304499343982, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.07328931965116331, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.14037291606116298, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04310804369540603, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.04488103273442599, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.07098040648130263, "adv_selected": 0.1121736886613674 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.021478590484951297, "strength": 0.02894364334257556, "strength_record": 0.023743477329579658, "adv_record": 0.03011288627490651, "adv_strength": 0.03772717719842748, "adv_strength_record": 0.03834250422232303, "adv_full": 0.0446248059184242, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03792531651818519, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04645585373289504, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.01741747363419967, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.05154120029679077, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01896862450013138, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.049466106562966176, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04745682239259306, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.037456644374709656, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.042848495948353355, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03221093131198942, "adv_selected": 0.02894364334257556 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.021478590484951297, "strength": 0.021292154096600114, "strength_record": 0.020037189527379817, "adv_record": 0.03011288627490651, "adv_strength": 0.02941965519017498, "adv_strength_record": 0.03193070251065018, "adv_full": 0.01649296999453029, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.029985119961566855, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.015609289663639508, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.057502262607327215, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.01200784233801557, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002370816732080351, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04970000051616275, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04371974655547855, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010061020507772815, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.026391668375079183, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01920156187178575, "adv_selected": 0.021292154096600114 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0929547207539922, "strength": 0.14510185832577727, "strength_record": 0.12095583920448871, "adv_record": 0.08707241142065758, "adv_strength": 0.13926374634123664, "adv_strength_record": 0.12519288445163823, "adv_full": 0.053718463050717306, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12390723986380275, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0534743393255192, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07024911684466133, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0616093631848399, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.16931752617605017, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03163560469153784, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04524873994959092, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.10808631343983692, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.06971370810700278, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.07153626830051117, "adv_selected": 0.14510185832577727 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01725713222148612, "strength": 0.009045395081367964, "strength_record": 0.011181572001457236, "adv_record": 0.02569656123325622, "adv_strength": 0.014704150717098229, "adv_strength_record": 0.018542872864512443, "adv_full": 0.011177031888115951, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01831335032577235, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011826083011746895, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004879183514662325, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.014878252665281266, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.006299309325526845, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.014132278053151117, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.030852977317066464, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.009741975937937462, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.014030444300993644, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01239881745951532, "adv_selected": 0.009045395081367964 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01778595540969185, "strength": 0.01597860917229231, "strength_record": 0.01554895509781754, "adv_record": 0.026264874901413136, "adv_strength": 0.02331475324395184, "adv_strength_record": 0.02614900866475417, "adv_full": 0.006594765936060183, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.022946430337923842, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0070135527393016765, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.06140551984603904, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.003972430452800082, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002675150672035898, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.017726150471372704, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.013470836401614249, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.011968814341907526, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01832574106623134, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007480714289443771, "adv_selected": 0.01597860917229231 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.024455905566593623, "strength": 0.010845800945615791, "strength_record": 0.014731507205817092, "adv_record": 0.03308353009794275, "adv_strength": 0.01703355609075519, "adv_strength_record": 0.021784805982398563, "adv_full": 0.0282677882235676, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01706501770479763, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03227212528598548, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05548276599540411, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.019398893497028714, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.007605968704671346, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.03930320855686705, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.04197388705798913, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.020500092029179982, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.010423854888508123, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.03953387004434645, "adv_selected": 0.010845800945615791 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0003208426428324952, "strength": 9.484219101073187e-05, "strength_record": 0.00012125665776114912, "adv_record": 0.001430809318919656, "adv_strength": 0.0003663191899995043, "adv_strength_record": 0.0006692733132780032, "adv_full": 0.0010999961753447645, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00047121476291966523, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001437078227797018, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00043863451696901466, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001026274096940373, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0004192363193177162, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008329988164297086, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0014222927840955245, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0015219273139816106, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00030357567311155396, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.001241124623126572, "adv_selected": 9.484219101073187e-05 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01778595540969185, "strength": 0.006720672700117781, "strength_record": 0.009633334531962686, "adv_record": 0.026264874901413136, "adv_strength": 0.011559045600147772, "adv_strength_record": 0.015605201981738818, "adv_full": 0.01698610786667706, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011046678300715594, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.019910211069520976, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.007247506005521418, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.022624244785363897, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.036751694585075795, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009510435263716763, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.024487412907886155, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.019774693800778197, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.007877520635019631, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.026193872461299422, "adv_selected": 0.006720672700117781 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00014000750031824014, "strength": 0.0001460246252312664, "strength_record": 0.00010142799422217052, "adv_record": 0.0007844635343286444, "adv_strength": 0.0005196330367345612, "adv_strength_record": 0.0007631987840798077, "adv_full": 0.0017998318085403861, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005699100280151044, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002243307660107208, "adv_add_prior_roster": 7.137231994636833e-05, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004069822194737867, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.004236133188074158, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0004424665131927113, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.002211044343983188, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0021409658594155534, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00030981523185663677, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0025924600954054635, "adv_selected": 0.0001460246252312664 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0013550658325796369, "strength": 0.0010992011570416398, "strength_record": 0.0009697374210572361, "adv_record": 0.004064710306324373, "adv_strength": 0.0026662001059169185, "adv_strength_record": 0.003587777833140341, "adv_full": 0.0040629250605639855, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0026258503548577264, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004797730529888414, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006865251541491512, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0029748037026029184, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0008249241793796509, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.006945924218863051, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008477451145905313, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0031932723742316314, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0015557328034671938, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.005493292257326527, "adv_selected": 0.0010992011570416398 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0037299977404582556, "strength": 0.0012645400707191987, "strength_record": 0.001743798359102069, "adv_record": 0.008467074565863993, "adv_strength": 0.0029867107872961936, "adv_strength_record": 0.004548437197636382, "adv_full": 0.00724862493696596, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0029232114238075305, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008881584893421498, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0030581532985738766, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.007533697725805041, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.002689481161082437, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0075563608441479085, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.014113477175950366, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0042975729493095515, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002825053744155357, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.010266366480691302, "adv_selected": 0.0012645400707191987 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 7.508220890143482e-05, "strength": 6.773481688932555e-05, "strength_record": 4.84853504692708e-05, "adv_record": 0.0004993986380965728, "adv_strength": 0.0002788868055022901, "adv_strength_record": 0.000439243015445183, "adv_full": 0.0003689054966504838, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.000300612129430024, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00048463024285711723, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0005315746957851132, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.000289566696880853, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00022025141501656766, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00045033799680233374, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0007860005593380581, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0007447532851042781, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00011086685055430667, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005944906625780097, "adv_selected": 6.773481688932555e-05 } } ] }, { "season": 2026, "champion": "NYK", "cutoffDate": "2026-03-01", "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "parameters": { "adv_record": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "record" ], "coefficients": { "record": 1.691582315752939 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.1938982801563314, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_strength": { "ridge": 0.1, "features": [ "strength" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 2.005118211388212 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "validationLogLoss": 2.0240458882920653, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_strength_record": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.4820233472856517, "record": 0.3437371751962385 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.109894617266661, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_full": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.27598630059595536, "record": 0.18159794028033582, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.12129496472181123, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.30646408848738776, "prior_net_rating": 0.283904932390588, "retained_minutes_share": -0.16157496274230917, "rotation_box_production": 0.1903315993986204, "star_box_production": 0.3892785300745841, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.29097031226255915, "efg_pct": 0.2149086259043462, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15120929228064942, "turnover_rate": 0.07027272554293369, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.011633727138759596, "oreb_pct": 0.24139801131608374, "dreb_pct": 0.1454542959003286, "ft_rate": 0.011881900678135661, "opp_ft_rate": -0.18883258449772639, "pace": -0.010904559306172838, "three_attempt_rate": 0.11791213222829953, "three_pct": -0.1575101944022671, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.21881898146896434, "opp_three_pct": -0.1937677992729694 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.282905982503863, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.8469395277503793, "record": 0.14145350977426294, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.6305768273848684, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.6348923574753331 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.107982063625129, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.3420958333542493, "record": 0.22376963276309145, "prior_net_rating": 0.29481967975708656, "retained_minutes_share": -0.1573292894059581, "rotation_box_production": 0.19007943939602812, "star_box_production": 0.3891745431988891, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.3136620630138992, "efg_pct": 0.2178773578770496, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2425158168906905, "turnover_rate": 0.08753851403965039, "opp_turnover_rate": 0.04804930457569118, "oreb_pct": 0.24367929815084008, "dreb_pct": 0.1832014337733521, "ft_rate": 0.0162105987354237, "opp_ft_rate": -0.20393872257502652, "pace": -0.020186195322452416, "three_attempt_rate": 0.1166834695864429, "three_pct": -0.14988377145970097, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.20044487871543779, "opp_three_pct": -0.2202409763922434 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.3347027270448524, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.3232230129862692, "record": 0.44051967783890356, "prior_net_rating": 0.6723233536098083, "retained_minutes_share": -0.5177522777491559 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.24677652601271, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2912170533429128, "record": 0.18421236125131257, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.13326924230921888, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.31408122192820215, "rotation_box_production": 0.21280936313037152, "star_box_production": 0.4233283519260479, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.2768883136150588, "efg_pct": 0.23411989074761233, "opp_efg_pct": -0.15267859275711038, "turnover_rate": 0.052751878969820705, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.026431269865961428, "oreb_pct": 0.22922188533994603, "dreb_pct": 0.18495960294494032, "ft_rate": 0.00042927259608262284, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1942100276882166, "pace": -0.016177056614673325, "three_attempt_rate": 0.13140623721009792, "three_pct": -0.15448633048718496, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.21851726863921245, "opp_three_pct": -0.18714009499044348 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.26885792371214, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.0779119866149378, "record": 0.16417784701728927, "rotation_box_production": 0.1488823301313128, "star_box_production": 0.5844755138605243, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.6058609635889134 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.0683305062110144, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.36092621211767045, "record": 0.2520791740412098, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.2171178671263562, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.3137970392674079, "prior_net_rating": 0.34999129506954135, "retained_minutes_share": -0.16406443943798055, "efg_pct": 0.32775955948875674, "opp_efg_pct": -0.19379691537797258, "turnover_rate": 0.04750046607640207, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.04405781075763391, "oreb_pct": 0.25844739611574746, "dreb_pct": 0.1726689246844883, "ft_rate": 0.025633371327947744, "opp_ft_rate": -0.16066604584545174, "pace": 0.04026115903010852, "three_attempt_rate": 0.09269235835821457, "three_pct": -0.12399482341049842, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.23478361157118194, "opp_three_pct": -0.1614598349367052 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4680885751243986, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.46428519370825344, "record": 0.3198708606046962, "efg_pct": 0.3860802145812208, "opp_efg_pct": -0.2810932123189065, "turnover_rate": 0.03648183823270509, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.004151500619273917, "oreb_pct": 0.24737393409747624, "dreb_pct": 0.2175806611279793, "ft_rate": 0.04117199168637401, "opp_ft_rate": -0.177259354006127 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.4597553786036785, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.34574165618509173, "record": 0.23459958794770638, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.1603886865904881, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.373250515311512, "prior_net_rating": 0.3184000411938927, "retained_minutes_share": -0.14789399248156104, "rotation_box_production": 0.20022023746723955, "star_box_production": 0.41965514678786475, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.3204891623839075, "pace": -0.025598814782405575, "three_attempt_rate": 0.16186960853161814, "three_pct": -0.14473292775923335, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.17783974583236706, "opp_three_pct": -0.19657946934344553 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.1637863019838828, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 1.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 1.7103884153303417, "record": 0.5208325638078715, "pace": -0.021608936706352246, "three_attempt_rate": 0.2617281646341065, "three_pct": -0.4419565703974593, "opp_three_attempt_rate": 0.3873795197683504, "opp_three_pct": -0.1253987070150898 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.288012632262996, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "ridge": 10.0, "features": [ "strength", "record", "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating", "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share", "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity", "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "coefficients": { "strength": 0.2600735576880388, "record": 0.1711182735988234, "adjusted_off_rating": 0.11414731415773859, "adjusted_def_rating": -0.30196551382651693, "prior_net_rating": 0.2680771748671589, "retained_minutes_share": -0.1915080519850823, "rotation_box_production": 0.21470715052396236, "star_box_production": 0.3628964130119092, "recent_minutes_continuity": 0.28553009799432355, "efg_pct": 0.19633822861468192, "opp_efg_pct": -0.1510780313531901, "turnover_rate": 0.07358255997959101, "opp_turnover_rate": -0.007300991669938212, "oreb_pct": 0.2402708627159281, "dreb_pct": 0.1115038692437168, "ft_rate": 0.03006507628875193, "opp_ft_rate": -0.1838615964672709 }, "trainingSeasons": 16, "trainingStart": 1999, "trainingEnd": 2024, "selection": { "id": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "validationLogLoss": 2.2489507357269867, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 } } }, "selection": { "id": "strength", "ridge": null, "validationLogLoss": 1.930727413360247, "validationSeasons": 11, "validationStart": 2007, "validationEnd": 2024 }, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555, "brier": 0.9666666666666661, "championProbability": 0.03333333333333333, "topPick": "ATL / BKN / BOS / CHA / CHI / CLE / DAL / DEN / DET / GSW / HOU / IND / LAC / LAL / MEM / MIA / MIL / MIN / NOP / NYK / OKC / ORL / PHI / PHX / POR / SAC / SAS / TOR / UTA / WAS", "correct": 0.03333333333333333 }, "record": { "logLoss": 3.2367747849324178, "brier": 1.0840825013858293, "championProbability": 0.03929041099438329, "topPick": "DET", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength": { "logLoss": 3.136559398156689, "brier": 1.2079533947578094, "championProbability": 0.043431973255551086, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_record": { "logLoss": 3.172411374984008, "brier": 1.1385727232009353, "championProbability": 0.04190243349989914, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_record": { "logLoss": 3.0311880558480504, "brier": 1.0139321917731314, "championProbability": 0.04825827053433899, "topPick": "DET", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength": { "logLoss": 2.9545649308185014, "brier": 1.0966243445189456, "championProbability": 0.05210132332577056, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_strength_record": { "logLoss": 2.9074915370451198, "brier": 1.0413700310121883, "championProbability": 0.054612551754076956, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_full": { "logLoss": 2.660430568936304, "brier": 0.9614214430695237, "championProbability": 0.06991811069612865, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.9126351464052123, "brier": 1.088875436698836, "championProbability": 0.05433236731906713, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": { "logLoss": 2.6615593429071103, "brier": 0.9585108907044821, "championProbability": 0.06983923347833708, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 3.5398710318378996, "brier": 1.1461804490756176, "championProbability": 0.029017069118963876, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_prior_roster": { "logLoss": 2.493860796838057, "brier": 0.9575739599866033, "championProbability": 0.0825904851616339, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.8709371793353493, "brier": 1.0287035244068352, "championProbability": 0.056645814409221555, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_player_availability": { "logLoss": 2.6728398904297035, "brier": 0.9670746444615741, "championProbability": 0.06905583557211181, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.660890860609499, "brier": 0.9378980657946413, "championProbability": 0.0698859353775534, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_four_factors": { "logLoss": 2.7920473863192674, "brier": 0.9773372753668843, "championProbability": 0.061295589606545575, "topPick": "DET", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_add_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 3.052374661219058, "brier": 1.1328986006711594, "championProbability": 0.04724659641324437, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_without_pace_shooting": { "logLoss": 2.8956010804292487, "brier": 0.9885587299717981, "championProbability": 0.05526579592065401, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "adv_selected": { "logLoss": 3.136559398156689, "brier": 1.2079533947578094, "championProbability": 0.043431973255551086, "topPick": "OKC", "correct": 0.0 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004680070662502472, "strength": 0.0031839615769211037, "strength_record": 0.003381177082672004, "adv_record": 0.009859978804268862, "adv_strength": 0.005940199489082615, "adv_strength_record": 0.007945432815261892, "adv_full": 0.006968031593371645, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005364665548717011, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.007546655599164463, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.008089728515390806, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.006424927014306548, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00583710426424927, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.007285996364720666, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010260894949318533, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010108357746824458, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.002918751018400872, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.008630945504084164, "adv_selected": 0.0031839615769211037 } }, { "id": "BKN", "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00013158615153563208, "strength": 9.795351538488005e-05, "strength_record": 8.290896086970071e-05, "adv_record": 0.000685778155207605, "adv_strength": 0.00032913956842794083, "adv_strength_record": 0.000544782522888206, "adv_full": 0.0009566996172938945, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00023900441356251934, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001287355370835686, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0005793024253757208, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0008313332853354678, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0012478688775926742, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0005052363891294707, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0014877868604785526, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.001414454707758648, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00016628687288596324, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0017168876371875686, "adv_selected": 9.795351538488005e-05 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.05957030926621281, "strength": 0.07858506090664816, "strength_record": 0.0718417060461234, "adv_record": 0.06583819103052278, "adv_strength": 0.08528157957656304, "adv_strength_record": 0.08373027484520691, "adv_full": 0.11174734698926513, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09467144932975374, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10200667663430509, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.10646354351356807, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.09264440850928386, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.043642010157188764, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.17169437285967548, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.09393382257991878, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.09478625483121297, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.141105499469306, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.07108136607985031, "adv_selected": 0.07858506090664816 } }, { "id": "CHA", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.004680070662502472, "strength": 0.012130712944775602, "strength_record": 0.007259956663492093, "adv_record": 0.009859978804268862, "adv_strength": 0.01805266650249845, "adv_strength_record": 0.018068441005245822, "adv_full": 0.016396372849892513, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.01703284668929105, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.017349699033302184, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005218025115368024, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.025389668698927018, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.010016801469130306, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.022065893560764313, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.059448766680291365, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006808501638163734, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0062546448867883304, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.022086961444651377, "adv_selected": 0.012130712944775602 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0011772776528029666, "strength": 0.00047879357549408526, "strength_record": 0.0005894549145726369, "adv_record": 0.003519700830293324, "adv_strength": 0.0012303883262658791, "adv_strength_record": 0.002012935935673684, "adv_full": 0.00205159042322294, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.001130060429713948, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002490932440952528, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0029343247310918675, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0018543815360069701, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0007608600328395604, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.004007789269749583, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.00886517717695852, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0016441320351124997, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00046956331570036536, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00357079001842471, "adv_selected": 0.00047879357549408526 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02627055802699897, "strength": 0.026589959566107185, "strength_record": 0.02608204316373785, "adv_record": 0.03573458721655022, "adv_strength": 0.03465536526794586, "adv_strength_record": 0.03800980226990946, "adv_full": 0.03530615059589771, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03397618519071844, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0341987576337049, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0706948455127389, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.02379986326044068, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.018810096329999314, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.052436076436742134, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.03955022966383691, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0384549827117379, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0312451490470557, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04038460998966943, "adv_selected": 0.026589959566107185 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0006069670322366815, "strength": 0.0006316433034177105, "strength_record": 0.0005019654247327724, "adv_record": 0.0021466300650025364, "adv_strength": 0.001548925348906718, "adv_strength_record": 0.002158218636021962, "adv_full": 0.0029660729148922468, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0012481281501193224, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003664301229045986, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.002079553738579102, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002462874302386509, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0011701732802981996, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.003813143691559986, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0064290660951990975, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002882604235400583, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005558049352354412, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0037203596737643554, "adv_selected": 0.0006316433034177105 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030582412234222294, "strength": 0.025736937612906362, "strength_record": 0.0275440392114406, "adv_record": 0.040026973484101544, "adv_strength": 0.033728957790166054, "adv_strength_record": 0.038124893078155725, "adv_full": 0.10894095206233077, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.03661337428465141, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.12026437979221977, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.05311558270155427, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.10702097765829552, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.17240561174316496, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.04819395776877425, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.056620465947343414, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.12157542738938137, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.01116123513998312, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.12381572730599193, "adv_selected": 0.025736937612906362 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.2583889529803046, "strength": 0.09756248124549634, "strength_record": 0.16475353236474596, "adv_record": 0.19684055596076253, "adv_strength": 0.10207544006423633, "adv_strength_record": 0.11946322058795235, "adv_full": 0.12360652932740256, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.10489160019963582, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.11752897208809078, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.07289250385759535, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.11724663146248158, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.1495319542267452, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08276558499132147, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.07050528990872991, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.16353367768960764, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.15492549147072038, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.10217646231549715, "adv_selected": 0.09756248124549634 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.006801155992412724, "strength": 0.00794142939855049, "strength_record": 0.006823027612001623, "adv_record": 0.013032830654475372, "adv_strength": 0.012695463448571693, "adv_strength_record": 0.014741285253513167, "adv_full": 0.00924279278716038, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.011649127532539804, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009947095719349602, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.009842712180885376, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008235838507019056, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.003910692461425429, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.018988975355737073, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01981516205498888, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.010531089229181579, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.012397996731541471, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007847561013042662, "adv_selected": 0.00794142939855049 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03578586745254636, "strength": 0.03774486853209253, "strength_record": 0.03697300291242438, "adv_record": 0.04500768785140375, "adv_strength": 0.04636585229859494, "adv_strength_record": 0.0493971164752388, "adv_full": 0.08867048353729683, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.04655002665622683, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.09405941039814276, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.055222690182057686, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06622073761517755, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.04359479754971885, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08081548133426109, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0875739613800054, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.04613806994229665, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.015408786086284801, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.11527592456704439, "adv_selected": 0.03774486853209253 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0001234654367960785, "strength": 0.00012010581645243648, "strength_record": 9.033706739329477e-05, "adv_record": 0.0006539352503402026, "adv_strength": 0.00038990582239921797, "adv_strength_record": 0.0006115210391181729, "adv_full": 0.00039635813853729397, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0003071999739770619, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0005332880597280528, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0010237441061945146, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0002594626492627447, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00017039094920259174, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008330243343069871, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0012233467152853743, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0008391570560906974, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.00012776549271860112, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005197781485699512, "adv_selected": 0.00012010581645243648 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "LA Clippers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0031523451602100674, "strength": 0.0035562883180487834, "strength_record": 0.0029777139292225304, "adv_record": 0.007341426263588611, "adv_strength": 0.006511979213934055, "adv_strength_record": 0.008009173718172216, "adv_full": 0.00723607954498513, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0058707492889983615, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008254831524213612, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.014899520171261095, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004861545836389403, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0035299442507012225, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.012536567288236185, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.015827463115092307, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.007240312093048672, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0034141667244656864, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.009694736499830974, "adv_selected": 0.0035562883180487834 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.02149776163840677, "strength": 0.0039315234095868125, "strength_record": 0.00794638774467215, "adv_record": 0.03076773425913661, "adv_strength": 0.007078062408156093, "adv_strength_record": 0.01139730374886405, "adv_full": 0.03627598496163039, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0073855695961751976, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.044811134814827756, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.017241402367982796, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.030728042182561234, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.026260123915446174, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02078368592599181, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.029296965767528105, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.03142051518310163, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.006758878421863633, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.04333337110546022, "adv_selected": 0.0039315234095868125 } }, { "id": "MEM", "name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0008625780790430381, "strength": 0.0012316368310455418, "strength_record": 0.0008706296006117783, "adv_record": 0.0027905008820741793, "adv_strength": 0.002697913151703852, "adv_strength_record": 0.0034306120248795697, "adv_full": 0.0021447034826475564, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.002240731924008827, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00227495966321727, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011510368350936972, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.001109577768009879, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.00022240420790724176, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.009860330466481904, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.006364580052559931, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.002044558321117087, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0021437242512077855, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0022390460659184107, "adv_selected": 0.0012316368310455418 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0076615100966263006, "strength": 0.015121590814801012, "strength_record": 0.0104392263379372, "adv_record": 0.01424462641513488, "adv_strength": 0.021680876910144888, "adv_strength_record": 0.022293280653137976, "adv_full": 0.0273763080008675, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.018210424511148324, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.027731299259265145, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.013375511999689614, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.028136533651726175, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.019901248423275848, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.02572370684321598, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0260861301259865, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.026591914512812176, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.013996429505573048, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.024835957387575158, "adv_selected": 0.015121590814801012 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.002432577550034467, "strength": 0.0008682581172056433, "strength_record": 0.0011745412230450259, "adv_record": 0.006050075380436015, "adv_strength": 0.0020176918315778754, "adv_strength_record": 0.0032389720029663118, "adv_full": 0.0030862400631360737, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0017900913719912793, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003912894946258517, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.004774589156549669, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.002462944418586806, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.001818503355557195, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0064976498018441044, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010210050543077453, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003531341809493336, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0008735467602131604, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0038748339778333796, "adv_selected": 0.0008682581172056433 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.030582412234222294, "strength": 0.020483457985350374, "strength_record": 0.024175938128364993, "adv_record": 0.040026973484101544, "adv_strength": 0.02790016608728951, "adv_strength_record": 0.033136603326312616, "adv_full": 0.02191224332061739, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.026174382083551842, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.02480806473699563, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.024837351777226648, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.020308991687206582, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.02731440930054216, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.029398489903814246, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.05588140726451438, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.02250489647588141, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.008776765484321002, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.036448250086831106, "adv_selected": 0.020483457985350374 } }, { "id": "NOP", "name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.00031110829230494245, "strength": 0.00044446568216656906, "strength_record": 0.0002976732244654712, "adv_record": 0.0013035059806944173, "adv_strength": 0.0011566253041543552, "adv_strength_record": 0.001571534735270997, "adv_full": 0.0031856297099576154, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0009313858960611055, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.003814593063585043, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0010069892238307987, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0031530309147031303, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0017731138883327854, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.002155795208215723, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0024594966432847517, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.003941684003078397, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.001188959909453021, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0025818351650971493, "adv_selected": 0.00044446568216656906 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.03929041099438329, "strength": 0.043431973255551086, "strength_record": 0.04190243349989914, "adv_record": 0.04825827053433899, "adv_strength": 0.05210132332577056, "adv_strength_record": 0.054612551754076956, "adv_full": 0.06991811069612865, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.05433236731906713, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06983923347833708, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.029017069118963876, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0825904851616339, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.056645814409221555, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.06905583557211181, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0698859353775534, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.061295589606545575, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.04724659641324437, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.05526579592065401, "adv_selected": 0.043431973255551086 } }, { "id": "OKC", "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.24140605193695236, "strength": 0.5172133823626914, "strength_record": 0.41347240231482835, "adv_record": 0.18710122915586855, "adv_strength": 0.40820950123273003, "adv_strength_record": 0.32936554282197544, "adv_full": 0.08766824376612174, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.40054005933029163, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.06776047797802946, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.41437585227789825, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.06446716410415511, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.09312385148136097, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.2032349825303768, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.12266590877604854, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.13704271941487678, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.4155273228610727, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.08259660630993428, "adv_selected": 0.5172133823626914 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.008890005731648321, "strength": 0.0050756483917484135, "strength_record": 0.006010582341301433, "adv_record": 0.015916921073183547, "adv_strength": 0.008751796391645002, "adv_strength_record": 0.01166196578184841, "adv_full": 0.0036129453511217495, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00790564668398222, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.004021298717157371, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.005820070124533869, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.0038296952787143985, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005814811481192292, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0046493416168115875, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.01035802713490905, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.006384635682422121, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004104075815498023, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0053843965395785195, "adv_selected": 0.0050756483917484135 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.012914420925371999, "strength": 0.004754209844739284, "strength_record": 0.006930429795475573, "adv_record": 0.02103315048234195, "adv_strength": 0.008288691870409471, "adv_strength_record": 0.01185542660244787, "adv_full": 0.008697912484724863, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.008285821380924601, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009726210048232984, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006180746402836335, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.009541391706120188, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01940891817183833, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005280281155127799, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.009482161182588282, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.015440250589793593, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0061408619111293925, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01062734259436178, "adv_selected": 0.004754209844739284 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.01442205797482512, "strength": 0.006128008206574036, "strength_record": 0.008449369229381982, "adv_record": 0.02283998176508622, "adv_strength": 0.010235185047015807, "adv_strength_record": 0.014089667573055503, "adv_full": 0.00940574455555098, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.009519622989589, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.010196252086459013, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.011864068568297382, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.008010481064573914, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.005499881410843684, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.010887269150205625, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.010384663726339586, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.01510873047595494, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.011779428750643315, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.007420609489516094, "adv_selected": 0.006128008206574036 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0036578123880227887, "strength": 0.0016853951843376729, "strength_record": 0.0020879246754811863, "adv_record": 0.008203297088787172, "adv_strength": 0.0035012677993156408, "adv_strength_record": 0.0051784527207044875, "adv_full": 0.004924523750527977, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0032529839978434117, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.005487617489141696, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0023042910747140904, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.004964212319573544, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0024076537039734286, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.005985537678622268, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.008708808428890859, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.005008048032811751, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.004810564872971405, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.004926496175489952, "adv_selected": 0.0016853951843376729 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 9.073120259527165e-05, "strength": 4.7832067949828814e-05, "strength_record": 4.602914804486836e-05, "adv_record": 0.0005196073935978301, "adv_strength": 0.00018142229404244047, "adv_strength_record": 0.0003315375638653732, "adv_full": 0.0003182291806988591, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00014393285578805174, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00043744924828255805, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.0008599470305806413, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00017198331672742893, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.000177965886523484, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0004604616536592484, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0007297381459157964, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005430003354182076, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 6.749995912106974e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.0005707935362689798, "adv_selected": 4.7832067949828814e-05 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.16506935958078794, "strength": 0.07663957554692084, "strength_record": 0.11567972287117437, "adv_record": 0.14088354253399107, "adv_strength": 0.08352342105534355, "adv_strength_record": 0.09623452726214769, "adv_full": 0.19094246754037486, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.08703274820584739, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.188461197011486, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.047052188212472104, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.2636978792762285, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.2666440191450646, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.08747133330845089, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.14709016494848337, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.14033348407325974, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.07871237519991071, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.19620113278586185, "adv_selected": 0.07663957554692084 } }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "Toronto Raptors", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.018528577172915502, "strength": 0.00842390416238314, "strength_record": 0.011432959305388854, "adv_record": 0.027536881334700343, "adv_strength": 0.013333196408012908, "adv_strength_record": 0.017794440027857877, "adv_full": 0.015505817650421047, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.012224005844754126, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.016869200288155226, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.006387083101662647, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.018928187516171213, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.01795129854066432, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.011547837483450308, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.016313930898299814, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.022126665763172897, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.017156634106767505, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.01254053059183855, "adv_selected": 0.00842390416238314 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0002618122109456972, "strength": 0.0001285687562577252, "strength_record": 0.00013487168300096666, "adv_record": 0.0011460188188809524, "adv_strength": 0.00041260397350668395, "adv_strength_record": 0.000714638673194844, "adv_full": 0.00038471841939551364, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00037917173852877636, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.0004886799409279878, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00022613589958667645, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00047075660925743765, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0002864958564941085, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.0008170196713410635, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.0016230297276549023, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.0005062181890420789, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 0.0005002324700783066, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00038312468648772505, "adv_selected": 0.0001285687562577252 } }, { "id": "WAS", "name": "Washington Wizards", "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.03333333333333333, "record": 0.0001697732796296802, "strength": 3.0373068395023357e-05, "strength_record": 4.801352349777961e-05, "adv_record": 0.000829429046859349, "adv_strength": 0.0001243921915884993, "adv_strength_record": 0.0002758445450357899, "adv_full": 0.00015471668452834913, "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00010663658254155052, "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency": 0.00022708170658577954, "adv_add_prior_roster": 0.00011025856057686707, "adv_without_prior_roster": 0.00017599268873778754, "adv_add_player_availability": 0.0001211812295055993, "adv_without_player_availability": 0.00024834238530018084, "adv_add_four_factors": 0.000917568128918221, "adv_without_four_factors": 0.00021872622540080732, "adv_add_pace_shooting": 6.496211584465115e-05, "adv_without_pace_shooting": 0.00024776738368382156, "adv_selected": 3.0373068395023357e-05 } } ] } ], "selectionAudit": [ { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.5982132086382017 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.666454630267241 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.046726112029908 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3456956151648365 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.477357519904686 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.698401472211076 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6041665899635995 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2773251066370714 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8867039274917309 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.659512802353447 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.532230567486469 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.230830316427012 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.1499296678715023 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5723828007010523 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7627000366447605 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7559923598706693 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8713279172588276 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.409825379565958 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2261579137108876 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.137436628924225 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.4477404037835244 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.6821628694308715 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8474090952110516 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8229607446167044 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.47255083678224963 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1397316943174045 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.162564112643551 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1212760983275096 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.149098759713091 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8890774012853 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9072998602340643 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8374606431084293 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.7907708441562744 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.454053430665819 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2972222736327956 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1115413587443914 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0679654019495455 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.393463849205052 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8023298574747737 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.841374801241536 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.978236756078399 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3892033001551254 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.36588373996744 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1095601104065245 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.2455330275558642 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.838786865520207 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.648045524502784 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8350317672417384 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6841389373866275 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.328862270289894 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1375178340983254 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.118360253578962 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.09350182887234 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5913286740567667 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.876721255879448 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.843217080415323 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.930579620469531 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.1314206467490262 }, { "season": 2007, "trainingEnd": 2006, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.9569401990639113 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.09313243860901 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.245937277136983 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.843388981519536 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.3096409388668264 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5870391718765402 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8116022805440108 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.596994284428837 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.263302075279976 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.84136619536899 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8754068186507427 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4365854573658736 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1866128212936427 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.3541332493068663 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.575904770291483 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.750995094891343 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9965798065286875 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5208455308490247 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2266570307252447 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8883469587469361 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0271346153356986 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.334970781349345 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.042537363977427 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0489835289702114 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1214401890704035 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.983545845591815 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.763871007131637 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.322324414951227 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.312143583437742 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.28694968922341707 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.280171465498621 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1400133881038603 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.866725330019728 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.319078769231611 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3797928579873842 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.06883751531174 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0218525562800203 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.32352889243208 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.200601686213598 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.334800428763498 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1372462819151896 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.7897981620502477 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.234512806469957 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.446786155213449 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1278258405044164 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.2929590722985065 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0868938638375965 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7297439015452762 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0265485445579206 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.4634213343946456 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.984591332468505 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9113029692448404 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1894520612301194 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.224572162264357 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.6783704546757634 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.381171538694022 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9665233389000765 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.3643539323945097 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.177425476955605 }, { "season": 2008, "trainingEnd": 2007, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.1859520465324231 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.896492594302461 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.053419902706483 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7022040958417803 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.278661167116539 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9800807809837044 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0660884333657137 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6152952644624494 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2533296971671293 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.549449489619356 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.133847324633943 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4056781981793867 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1520519797868434 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.6261015713760463 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.735586524397611 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.765605581491811 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.901165700131214 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.749401703659838 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.4797117606140895 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4313906651330393 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.063165376008879 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.7858120429464326 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.891860542424331 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.794207172216331 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9484312253880014 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.467199830674539 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.100097300420638 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.309958351079723 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0783622981817973 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.1080740139560055 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1109402330937153 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8282881676160456 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9447366691724386 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.827923740648566 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1009845275889836 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3829889200645398 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9979833630247077 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.38990885039309 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.5243682530503606 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9100982888318936 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0090645248605963 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.597324598071528 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.461329340437181 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7192672445419515 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.068388225486079 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1111247911138804 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8755067457898837 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6080894268193706 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9371609249934756 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.307699508805252 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.276136616797417 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.779814703167973 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2038551817348737 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.01527812931425 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.9279899595046595 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5789116229691564 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8371791883205932 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.3816234642612717 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.9609509708735193 }, { "season": 2009, "trainingEnd": 2008, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.656282235432515 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9263947880306076 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.075282149898422 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6820418308713823 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2664167756105282 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.94930520421689 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.098156999577238 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6536430467462586 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2516457302970263 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.289571253525498 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.10393990962262 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.43368609492716 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.142682573215361 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.0910524817897057 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.6060461976021224 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8691001293030445 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6840934601689974 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2493486988956 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9720721633255427 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.219244034742696 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.027060653246539 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.07552383271891867 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.6261451829281647 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.960431673439708 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.752266059483916 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3849610650451702 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.170708391375378 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.287139378995963 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.038052249486424 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.0861136990813196 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7517823697755042 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9503057973921425 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7455501808666583 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.639875783991618 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3880903557239908 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.364238950804004 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9850173772848168 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.37626990471713434 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9687289022326339 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9353664978309828 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7809756446383807 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.650001972092929 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.361802360431071 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4213887897080193 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0228935702605217 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.06988631669669688 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.586467996876653 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6883841605080703 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.733447667977461 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8574731703736069 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.137030590511252 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0811518051684015 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0422271976185677 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.57780838967047 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.293445066552528 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2703189721606347 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.750828108987259 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.5287009958308242 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.7661694265744652 }, { "season": 2010, "trainingEnd": 2009, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.6030562332413474 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3319637512730003 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3955318797691727 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7768985420703216 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.272129608152833 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.098168038583186 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0089572772794635 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.015934354668476 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.303403205576588 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.524298942565862 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.953812174205823 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8027640624256627 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2003378482989655 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 13.985500628491089 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.558942757065878 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.562297712395284 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.046182844074536 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.5847864002011276 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2139724313783695 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9522592956499287 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.165643645678729 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 14.120528815226345 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.481129544220605 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.4867951971899926 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0467770778544976 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.587328861304647 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0153524293742726 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8185570725531366 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.167428594080205 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 12.963930176760723 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 6.3283268364367915 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.5196589871768964 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0559086722459483 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.6432789503329643 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2067138098744468 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8577781932564554 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1068256362826854 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 12.976778707844401 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.904171726110156 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.373730322123624 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.087138293341466 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 7.4545575663715855 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.734518067279137 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1503494073140033 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1307753876598925 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 6.94139930163207 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.402098881204725 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1373375181971643 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0525079122835375 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.3701871281808655 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2553743330451015 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.91348189414517 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1638192553381552 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 12.652209006174537 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 5.8170375803732215 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.4483604981186513 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.052824234036232 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.2744879505307725 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.2582153166054755 }, { "season": 2011, "trainingEnd": 2010, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.766130433300667 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.7144887615082596 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.8552644207203366 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4909262889286232 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2137841028231344 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5231064311197007 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7136492677566455 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4227750679220175 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.195284116450317 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.583705805768159 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.644345415741894 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.163009671476668 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0486980585154355 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 7.976783282751404 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.035999594237601 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.29295157660651 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6570045242483027 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.532132015612696 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.6295420411718446 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.0418649910732576 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.920368651410388 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 8.064638188681418 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.105399311007958 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.360326715128408 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7242092973553715 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.42358802356556 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.47747563406121 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.991255568734691 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.927282971092617 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 9.957145469155051 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.783638977463303 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4432778846154215 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.726181627240598 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6723247312796194 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.7629061662892812 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3578288347444176 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6721236268761692 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 7.041754137736776 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.333938842376336 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8243516368230077 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.941143069625828 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.9144931422530376 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.335787695907431 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4688671209256845 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9353503326169155 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.6134899605075774 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.207082586228824 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9710785512100046 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6979397670514107 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.0096994982180565 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.533122307834351 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1449999330622997 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.250896061393121 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.603360934058556 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.376044772573597 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.7695220947194183 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.474074822225119 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.4449932795371578 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.2892382979772723 }, { "season": 2012, "trainingEnd": 2011, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.2743869466587976 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.8094727223367624 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7249435086716223 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.801544029040211 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.254831153749041 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.3695569986746765 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1018545369044315 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8779216178682874 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.256361621541002 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.3945159050166622 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0914494811702653 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.783031693492823 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.148303635419878 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.845735281502829 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.2150680672654985 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.3257156546281537 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9410035049528105 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.8310180960885836 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.413975841641115 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8835719249833787 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.054825409666424 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.848697739324314 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.233965051801832 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.3042059670053336 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9721760824601375 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.5814971867847047 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.274985711725731 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.812667281692956 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.077060496128252 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.427430914605104 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.951741173035065 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.250440084185817 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9643055510410146 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.5880994340038677 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.4351503012558764 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0580600783487646 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.086316611722125 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.763096043804188 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.919749079464671 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.0949595367746037 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9398144543360085 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.035246805280191 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.616194740456713 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.974878896753959 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.057027370866842 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.824759894769804 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.47621501987307 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.1427467888050034 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9572636714084397 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.4450797082931333 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5473649023382134 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8018421671848732 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.095109946088572 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.343120917142662 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.587643891904368 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.3683268647338678 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2012, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.952558608527936 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.198172376999788 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.8043917642580527 }, { "season": 2016, "trainingEnd": 2015, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.600940559456117 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1293881273658366 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.0465066990419296 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.9931573208384323 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2850502322219377 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0328222662308 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.063310869788059 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4466539250472694 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1713727765122175 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9755535445096992 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2843862877995886 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5540911324576636 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0991713600744997 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.036561683585795 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2035897168375607 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.4154403575548493 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.398996358874918 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2820754588032424 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.453569419686419 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.562544611367298 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0049308621167965 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.1626133504285687 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2000685278825656 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.39170430765614 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.425472920338661 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2785708032538636 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.5426132752102701 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.081334445300123 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9242539334425737 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2367726035844426 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.473856771432193 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.621556162914952 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.502346439014683 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0215255342936393 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.159326417003455 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5138642614956546 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6310324810696777 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.7145367526360964 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.025271284512652 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.087751580919245 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.738187337156871 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.0969439940255716 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.346478781424531 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3722976347809657 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8677156891699966 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5815300801150738 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2119680493497502 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5319115961048402 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5222574592291056 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.7728204425144294 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.868006189027399 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.849559412170664 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.151993183464517 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.8549221322421612 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.827711143871498 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3658334432740713 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2016, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.337085041285568 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.631291842601294 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.0866160214838803 }, { "season": 2021, "trainingEnd": 2019, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.9442380185627712 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.2193987437811638 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.264433348561731 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6031852197826573 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2053296444873838 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8365027126491544 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9427374661831798 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.44044865108495 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1656117850298857 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8425941134238621 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.937639150851536 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2989803590547893 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.026440354458514 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.044452105985192 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.881726121751959 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3410438531490745 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.691069941543202 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.772029063706764 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.7670665159989634 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.04323909670589 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8521574593959644 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.6089061024550264 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8608879167574406 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.481112143042994 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7999095443304096 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.304030280213082 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.351369657585864 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.5467283801937772 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0405638959304 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.9327045177529603 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.296183502608279 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1642570173905495 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6516249735972868 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.756613127499902 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.7370463766225277 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6423867412006703 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.975737663171143 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.3373246667778678 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.4402092268133573 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.135692728778889 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6936084665986364 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.5859068551535085 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.36119018437343 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.267597250261917 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8646734105934124 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.494589325025579 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2060932438326675 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.209642548383111 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7743418343080735 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.1112383979012042 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.3522948739027434 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.032106278132275 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9133940903223063 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.973967403257884 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.7109825228362503 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6233627676594407 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7589955984761785 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.1883923911740397 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.651725749610653 }, { "season": 2022, "trainingEnd": 2021, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.8102955972814383 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.9072561427627432 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9871568106382196 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.4475084861929717 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.167591212377367 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.4054390117526125 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.4464314224005563 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7231825430673733 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2203427759115533 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.6648566518519 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.3532467480510926 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.414951280400326 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0460628303229855 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.7179353434056135 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8384460338698325 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.01072955228269 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.468449455644561 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.75142653772676 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5593346054733632 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.533346180595668 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9798598154398435 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.2076715442395414 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.4785521495365743 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.841503375385979 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4671944250677718 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.15664753416754 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.0711187221957417 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.448103708792088 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0632439474007174 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.1565714169712913 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.63457336507121 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.9563566960209329 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.4320522492610968 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2670330908809362 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.152283910136515 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.3935417112476551 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5186034086234863 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 5.433895267674899 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 4.0248647364461885 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8217963892800895 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8666034018106106 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3465179916537218 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.2482114139450107 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.3812400391866735 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9201125321121797 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.0989080048608795 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.473476858116296 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.8839929530640467 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.5037836453255404 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.231981628484033 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.330423880031663 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.560325197400124 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.9634079841725347 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.2327914429495592 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.2693993583469025 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.6383574911851102 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.48948583077816 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.6882243234181749 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 2.374258534963468 }, { "season": 2023, "trainingEnd": 2022, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.948615689633826 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.5066798031115995 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.6364107292014687 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.2620316284884763 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.1223662272090924 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0051266352207735 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1824255036390934 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.974946638860715 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0513491535289456 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.9999411553482075 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.171254676852321 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.772850105798039 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.858131003964745 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.13708475030584907 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.31122469009990716 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.015386258594978 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.1523564302283207 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.9439386707416285 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.0620755102955097 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.5310426584905883 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6343637230807544 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.2525955275145457 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.4065184765514887 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.1650508222472287 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.266826424028208 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6483906244448491 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.8072179627416651 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.493836028068855 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7044479191375146 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.2650236076931427 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.49787497162291944 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.175983115182853 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.2298959448860574 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.8636524078791152 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.9752874151728816 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.1236877727535854 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.746714593378714 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.12029519599853522 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.2220937918833739 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 0.8280970587677828 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.160811173842704 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 1.0968913534566642 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 1.1445405403082152 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.4887528859864023 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.51471882170296 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.3159568349290827 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.49836312821885853 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.2506763526830382 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.3365400792151934 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.3162803881508896 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.5549316586464184 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.4577503979220654 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.6811976779230338 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 0.6169558223115207 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 0.9188693622702122 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 1.41757154360303 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.248072511204006 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 1.0864447856860293 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 0.7375893409113026 }, { "season": 2024, "trainingEnd": 2023, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 0.8044935173945756 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.0311880558480504 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.992572886874587 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.975521375531724 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2579632414096444 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.9545649308185014 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8766015210413483 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.851290195641439 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.2206184187982227 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.9485760877111433 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.9074915370451198 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.861433182573064 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_strength_record", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.135581927376204 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.5246355457781706 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.151179454622243 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.660430568936304 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_full", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.773779855904167 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.9081201177987097 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.9126351464052123 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8423098533724755 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.02658447448917 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.489385530146013 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.2164758893431262 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6615593429071103 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.808141045645476 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.713557866280927 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.5398710318378996 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 3.040912703822953 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.069199938732291 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.665713599072234 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.5887086104110906 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.493860796838057 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.7901398944531506 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.824787481410943 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.8709371793353493 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.808117319903826 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.977053028441323 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.525145824469257 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.1435801859658725 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.6728398904297035 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8521002627083782 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 2.3165992787508407 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 2.4111771756615985 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.660890860609499 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.0073728800848905 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.8107254493978595 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.452199254726945 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.7920473863192674 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8241084132353667 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 3.408475027525266 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.052374661219058 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.683547780490889 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_add_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 3.057672083040187 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 0.1, "logLoss": 4.305079932312388 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 1.0, "logLoss": 3.639290638214159 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 10.0, "logLoss": 2.8956010804292487 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2024, "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "ridge": 100.0, "logLoss": 2.8292704273660085 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "uniform", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.4011973816621555 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.2367747849324178 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "strength", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.136559398156689 }, { "season": 2026, "trainingEnd": 2025, "model": "strength_record", "ridge": null, "logLoss": 3.172411374984008 } ], "featureAblations": [ { "model": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.02053783594580489, "logLossCi95": [ -0.05744103719965916, 0.09054712049209519 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.02364708788142798, 0.06472275977303776 ], "brierDifference": 0.002731448703068589, "brierCi95": [ -0.023370656756763326, 0.0312641984401495 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.015700584005379072, 0.023036584124707375 ], "group": "adjusted_efficiency", "name": "Adjusted offense and defense", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_adjusted_efficiency" }, { "model": "adv_without_prior_roster", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.006290562199431963, "logLossCi95": [ -0.09812636623865997, 0.11742722230946724 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.04549065405743545, 0.07256574708451405 ], "brierDifference": 0.016193772843070355, "brierCi95": [ -0.019784375075398954, 0.05657132258022896 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.002555962387995222, 0.038612297378294747 ], "group": "prior_roster", "name": "Previous season and roster continuity", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_prior_roster" }, { "model": "adv_without_player_availability", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.20054157143153736, "logLossCi95": [ -0.0871410093020704, 0.5086426576816381 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ 0.05170972073854458, 0.3938538812074409 ], "brierDifference": 0.03235098629725581, "brierCi95": [ -0.0499964097044781, 0.12418632775397442 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.01800340702911423, 0.10052682130095635 ], "group": "player_availability", "name": "Player box production and recent rotation", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_player_availability" }, { "model": "adv_without_four_factors", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": -0.006228230023489807, "logLossCi95": [ -0.10939175729507469, 0.10886692201803903 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.07401269095430663, 0.09109706741367266 ], "brierDifference": 0.002713010683352065, "brierCi95": [ -0.033886088776674206, 0.04676431674084751 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.030508026831952622, 0.03961201762127024 ], "group": "four_factors", "name": "Shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_four_factors" }, { "model": "adv_without_pace_shooting", "baseline": "adv_full", "logLossDifference": 0.0024110662645182262, "logLossCi95": [ -0.2250170245767229, 0.2266919616318331 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.14892247257538951, 0.13464174724953876 ], "brierDifference": -0.011293828693717034, "brierCi95": [ -0.0816249641529406, 0.06724795815019634 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.06543966079008842, 0.047385905447868394 ], "group": "pace_shooting", "name": "Pace and three-point profile", "referenceModel": "adv_full", "withoutModel": "adv_without_pace_shooting" } ], "featureGroups": [ { "id": "baseline", "name": "Current strength and record", "features": [ "strength", "record" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "adjusted_efficiency", "name": "Adjusted offense and defense", "features": [ "adjusted_off_rating", "adjusted_def_rating" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "prior_roster", "name": "Previous season and roster continuity", "features": [ "prior_net_rating", "retained_minutes_share" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "player_availability", "name": "Player box production and recent rotation", "features": [ "rotation_box_production", "star_box_production", "recent_minutes_continuity" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "four_factors", "name": "Shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws", "features": [ "efg_pct", "opp_efg_pct", "turnover_rate", "opp_turnover_rate", "oreb_pct", "dreb_pct", "ft_rate", "opp_ft_rate" ], "status": "included" }, { "id": "pace_shooting", "name": "Pace and three-point profile", "features": [ "pace", "three_attempt_rate", "three_pct", "opp_three_attempt_rate", "opp_three_pct" ], "status": "included" } ], "inputHash": "85174c635f58c6cc8b71e5fed23c44ee14d130e8203a614bfe4ceaed739cddb5" } ] }