{ "schemaVersion": 1, "generatedAt": "2026-11-10T13:56:49.766597+00:00", "status": "historical_backtest", "protocol": { "version": "strength-bracket-v1", "declaredBeforeScoring": "2026-11-10", "forecastCutoff": "end of regular season, before any play-in games", "firstTrainingSeason": 1985, "minimumTrainingSeasons": 10, "minimumInnerTrainingSeasons": 5, "excludedSeasons": [ 2020 ], "recentAuditSeasons": [ 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "strengthRidgePenalty": 10.0, "logisticCGrid": [ 0.1, 1.0, 10.0 ], "selectionMetric": "equal-season mean champion log loss on earlier forward predictions", "seedPriorPseudocount": 0.5, "bootstrapReplicates": 5000, "bootstrapSeed": 1973, "models": [ "uniform", "seed_history", "record_bracket", "strength_bracket" ], "notes": [ "Model family, features, candidate grid, and metrics fixed before running the backtest.", "Final audit is sequential: its later forecasts may train on earlier audit years, as annual retraining would.", "No title-temperature fitting, roster/injury inputs, source Elo ratings, odds, or target-season postseason fitting.", "All reported probabilities are retrospective reconstructions; source publication vintages are not available." ] }, "cutoff": { "id": "regular_season_end", "label": "Regular-season end \u00b7 before play-in", "description": "Historical reconstruction using final regular-season scores and seeds. Play-in outcomes are integrated, not supplied. Dates have day-level precision." }, "coverage": { "firstSeason": 1985, "lastSeason": 2026, "evaluatedSeasons": 31, "gameCount": 51507, "phaseCounts": { "regular": 48174, "playoff": 3296, "play_in": 37 }, "excludedSeasons": [ { "season": 2020, "reason": "Bubble neutral sites and asymmetric 8/9 qualification need their own format model." } ] }, "methodology": { "training": "Expanding annual windows: at least 10 earlier seasons for each outer forecast. Game coefficients use earlier playoff outcomes paired with those years' frozen regular-season features. All probabilities sum to 100% before rounding.", "features": [ "Opponent-adjusted scoring margin per game (ridge penalty 10, fixed in advance)", "Home-court indicator", "Regular-season win percentage for the record baseline" ], "hyperparameterSelection": "Each year, choose logistic C from 0.1, 1, 10 using mean title log loss from earlier forward-season predictions (minimum five training seasons per inner fold). Scaling is learned only from the training games. No outer-season result participates in its selection.", "calibration": "Logistic game probabilities are fitted; no separate title calibration is claimed. Probability reliability bins and season-level uncertainty are reported as diagnostics. Top-pick accuracy gives fractional credit when favorites tie.", "limitations": [ "Retrospectively reconstructed historical inputs, not archived publication-time snapshots. Source corrections after the fact cannot be excluded.", "A team-only, stationary-strength model: no injuries, roster changes, rest, matchup styles, or market prices.", "Scoring margin is per game; historical possession data is absent. This is not a per-100-possession net rating.", "The playoff game link is also used for play-in games; only six play-in seasons are available here.", "Home court uses record and head-to-head, then official seeds within a conference. Finals use own-conference record through 1990 and opposite-conference record from 1991; unresolved ties average both assignments.", "Recent audit years use a frozen sequential procedure: later years may learn from earlier audit outcomes, reproducing annual retraining.", "Bootstrap intervals resample seasons; three-season block intervals are supplied as a dependence sensitivity check. There is only one championship outcome per season." ] }, "sources": [ { "title": "FiveThirtyEight original NBA data", "url": "https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-elo" }, { "title": "Archived complete score file through 2023", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250306125344id_/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-model/nba_elo.csv" }, { "title": "ESPN historical standings", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/basketball/nba/standings?season=2026&seasontype=2" }, { "title": "ESPN dated scoreboards", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard" }, { "title": "NBA first-round format changed in 2003", "url": "https://www.nba.com/news/history-season-review-2002-03" }, { "title": "Bucks media guide: Finals tiebreak changed in 1991 (page 260)", "url": "https://nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/sportsarchive-documents/prod/698bdc3c08deb/2008_Media_Guide.pdf#page=260" } ], "models": [ { "id": "uniform", "name": "Equal chances", "description": "Every eligible team has the same title probability: 1/16 historically, 1/20 in play-in seasons.", "metrics": { "logLoss": 2.815777796687694, "brier": 0.9399193548387096, "topPickAccuracy": 0.06008064516129033 } }, { "id": "seed_history", "name": "Historical seeds", "description": "Earlier champions' conference seed frequencies, with 0.5 pseudocount per rank, normalized across the current field.", "metrics": { "logLoss": 2.0007236726035917, "brier": 0.823611660728316, "topPickAccuracy": 0.27419354838709675 } }, { "id": "record_bracket", "name": "Record + bracket", "description": "Same trained game model and exact bracket, using regular-season win percentage instead of adjusted scoring margin.", "metrics": { "logLoss": 1.831947169451371, "brier": 0.7501185365992354, "topPickAccuracy": 0.41935483870967744 } }, { "id": "strength_bracket", "name": "Strength + bracket", "description": "Opponent-adjusted regular-season scoring margin, a game model fitted only on earlier playoffs, and exact bracket probabilities.", "metrics": { "logLoss": 1.7592187116812261, "brier": 0.7265999360519623, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3870967741935484 } } ], "evaluationGroups": [ { "id": "all", "label": "All forward test seasons", "seasons": 31, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 2.815777796687694, "brier": 0.9399193548387096, "topPickAccuracy": 0.06008064516129033 }, "seed_history": { "logLoss": 2.0007236726035917, "brier": 0.823611660728316, "topPickAccuracy": 0.27419354838709675 }, "record_bracket": { "logLoss": 1.831947169451371, "brier": 0.7501185365992354, "topPickAccuracy": 0.41935483870967744 }, "strength_bracket": { "logLoss": 1.7592187116812261, "brier": 0.7265999360519623, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3870967741935484 } } }, { "id": "development", "label": "Development era", "seasons": 28, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 2.7964969598805896, "brier": 0.9388392857142857, "topPickAccuracy": 0.06116071428571429 }, "seed_history": { "logLoss": 2.0292291351875624, "brier": 0.8293966217819254, "topPickAccuracy": 0.26785714285714285 }, "record_bracket": { "logLoss": 1.8596194667005446, "brier": 0.77138270888708, "topPickAccuracy": 0.39285714285714285 }, "strength_bracket": { "logLoss": 1.798957471756593, "brier": 0.7504330343382065, "topPickAccuracy": 0.35714285714285715 } } }, { "id": "recent_audit", "label": "Recent audit \u00b7 2024\u20132026", "seasons": 3, "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 2.995732273553991, "brier": 0.9499999999999994, "topPickAccuracy": 0.05000000000000001 }, "seed_history": { "logLoss": 1.734672688486531, "brier": 0.7696186908946295, "topPickAccuracy": 0.3333333333333333 }, "record_bracket": { "logLoss": 1.5736723951257519, "brier": 0.5516529285793519, "topPickAccuracy": 0.6666666666666666 }, "strength_bracket": { "logLoss": 1.3883236176444667, "brier": 0.5041576853803483, "topPickAccuracy": 0.6666666666666666 } } } ], "comparisons": [ { "baseline": "uniform", "logLossDifference": -1.056559085006467, "logLossCi95": [ -1.475462009798009, -0.5827936935323857 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -1.4346049685227042, -0.6431510580822746 ], "brierDifference": -0.2133194187867472, "brierCi95": [ -0.36005979835883584, -0.07545057230753593 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.3452488522244626, -0.08071427731645621 ] }, { "baseline": "seed_history", "logLossDifference": -0.24150496092236556, "logLossCi95": [ -0.616812182395189, 0.12101847777004594 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.5533534106021801, 0.06979081982473954 ], "brierDifference": -0.09701172467635377, "brierCi95": [ -0.21059405922407307, 0.016893169684793242 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.1759636214690806, -0.012296350431040258 ] }, { "baseline": "record_bracket", "logLossDifference": -0.07272845777014511, "logLossCi95": [ -0.27115540984640596, 0.118749179261088 ], "logLossBlockCi95": [ -0.29188168952499516, 0.13414030852664008 ], "brierDifference": -0.023518600547273033, "brierCi95": [ -0.09890885491260501, 0.044182838584778755 ], "brierBlockCi95": [ -0.10374270532896773, 0.04617129441698321 ] } ], "seasons": [ { "season": 1995, "champion": "HOU", "championName": "Houston Rockets", "cutoffDate": "1995-04-23", "trainingStart": 1985, "trainingEnd": 1994, "trainingGames": 715, "parameters": { "record_bracket": { "C": 10.0, "scale": 0.1455683427045761, "strengthCoefficient": 0.724240375019113, "homeCoefficient": 0.7634374260900882, "trainingGames": 715, "innerSeasonCount": 5 }, "strength_bracket": { "C": 10.0, "scale": 3.86014538818433, "strengthCoefficient": 0.6748053893658897, "homeCoefficient": 0.7594303568791179, "trainingGames": 715, "innerSeasonCount": 5 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "conference": "East", "seed": 1, "eligible": true, "wins": 57, "losses": 25, "strength": 5.805146116966769, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.30357142857142855, "record_bracket": 0.17029337772819872, "strength_bracket": 0.22932713221531661 } }, { "id": "IND", "name": "Indiana Pacers", "conference": "East", "seed": 2, "eligible": true, "wins": 52, "losses": 30, "strength": 3.022666413952092, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.08928571428571429, "record_bracket": 0.02866716076073503, "strength_bracket": 0.024277633192828253 } }, { "id": "BOS", "name": "Boston Celtics", "conference": "East", "seed": 8, "eligible": true, "wins": 35, "losses": 47, "strength": -1.7006945628463754, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 9.476637537117667e-06, "strength_bracket": 2.9616865703040506e-05 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "conference": "East", "seed": 6, "eligible": true, "wins": 43, "losses": 39, "strength": 0.5044236622747587, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 0.0005148399990435929, "strength_bracket": 0.0009514437571339023 } }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "conference": "East", "seed": 5, "eligible": true, "wins": 47, "losses": 35, "strength": 3.8984546963794973, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 0.002612693340590202, "strength_bracket": 0.02420234601581356 } }, { "id": "CHH", "name": "Charlotte Hornets", "conference": "East", "seed": 4, "eligible": true, "wins": 50, "losses": 32, "strength": 2.5969291241930366, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 0.011533289806958412, "strength_bracket": 0.00897513856225096 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "conference": "East", "seed": 3, "eligible": true, "wins": 55, "losses": 27, "strength": 2.5158002825144496, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 0.07931070590670751, "strength_bracket": 0.018505900713836423 } }, { "id": "WSB", "name": "Washington Bullets", "conference": "East", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 21, "losses": 61, "strength": -4.950938729965205, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } }, { "id": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "conference": "East", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 24, "losses": 58, "strength": -4.50763976089304, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "conference": "East", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 28, "losses": 54, "strength": -6.327395762775986, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } }, { "id": "NJN", "name": "New Jersey Nets", "conference": "East", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 30, "losses": 52, "strength": -2.9031872163665655, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "conference": "East", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 32, "losses": 50, "strength": -1.6219372163665662, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } }, { "id": "MIL", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "conference": "East", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 34, "losses": 48, "strength": -3.831998390919287, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } }, { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "conference": "East", "seed": 7, "eligible": true, "wins": 42, "losses": 40, "strength": 0.9691213438523973, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 0.0003000344921759941, "strength_bracket": 0.0014684121701567972 } }, { "id": "SAS", "name": "San Antonio Spurs", "conference": "West", "seed": 1, "eligible": true, "wins": 62, "losses": 20, "strength": 5.252976190476186, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.30357142857142855, "record_bracket": 0.34137531899138795, "strength_bracket": 0.1133995274924018 } }, { "id": "PHX", "name": "Phoenix Suns", "conference": "West", "seed": 2, "eligible": true, "wins": 59, "losses": 23, "strength": 3.424291237113399, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.08928571428571429, "record_bracket": 0.12409461452582257, "strength_bracket": 0.018061929747391008 } }, { "id": "DEN", "name": "Denver Nuggets", "conference": "West", "seed": 8, "eligible": true, "wins": 41, "losses": 41, "strength": 0.8256802721088421, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 5.890535939461497e-05, "strength_bracket": 0.0002996248818598315 } }, { "id": "POR", "name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "conference": "West", "seed": 7, "eligible": true, "wins": 44, "losses": 38, "strength": 3.3727448453608218, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 0.00023008224793672592, "strength_bracket": 0.007256330013264085 } }, { "id": "HOU", "name": "Houston Rockets", "conference": "West", "seed": 6, "eligible": true, "wins": 47, "losses": 35, "strength": 2.0386904761904754, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 0.0009157446531875985, "strength_bracket": 0.0019386215218406852 } }, { "id": "LAL", "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "conference": "West", "seed": 5, "eligible": true, "wins": 48, "losses": 34, "strength": -0.03962628865979573, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 0.001390801663610267, "strength_bracket": 0.00014894727570558577 } }, { "id": "SEA", "name": "Seattle SuperSonics", "conference": "West", "seed": 4, "eligible": true, "wins": 57, "losses": 25, "strength": 7.063466494845359, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 0.06168011772848559, "strength_bracket": 0.2496851001132782 } }, { "id": "UTA", "name": "Utah Jazz", "conference": "West", "seed": 3, "eligible": true, "wins": 60, "losses": 22, "strength": 6.920705782312923, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.017857142857142856, "record_bracket": 0.17701283615822808, "strength_bracket": 0.30147229546121923 } }, { "id": "LAC", "name": "Los Angeles Clippers", "conference": "West", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 17, "losses": 65, "strength": -7.59632731958763, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "conference": "West", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 21, "losses": 61, "strength": -7.40901360544218, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } }, { "id": "GSW", "name": "Golden State Warriors", "conference": "West", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 26, "losses": 56, "strength": -4.431378865979383, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "conference": "West", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 36, "losses": 46, "strength": -2.19153911564626, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } }, { "id": "SAC", "name": "Sacramento Kings", "conference": "West", "seed": null, "eligible": false, "wins": 39, "losses": 43, "strength": -0.6994201030927849, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0, "seed_history": 0.0, "record_bracket": 0.0, "strength_bracket": 0.0 } } ], "metrics": { "uniform": { "logLoss": 2.772588722239781, "brier": 0.9375, "championProbability": 0.0625, "topPick": "ATL / BOS / CHH / CHI / CLE / DEN / HOU / IND / LAL / NYK / ORL / PHX / POR / SAS / SEA / UTA", "correct": 0.0625 }, "seed_history": { "logLoss": 4.02535169073515, "brier": 1.1683673469387752, "championProbability": 0.017857142857142856, "topPick": "ORL / SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "record_bracket": { "logLoss": 6.995772995047377, "brier": 1.2014979296639803, "championProbability": 0.0009157446531875985, "topPick": "SAS", "correct": 0.0 }, "strength_bracket": { "logLoss": 6.245778114223511, "brier": 1.216785336212621, "championProbability": 0.0019386215218406852, "topPick": "UTA", "correct": 0.0 } } }, { "season": 1996, "champion": "CHI", "championName": "Chicago Bulls", "cutoffDate": "1996-04-21", "trainingStart": 1985, "trainingEnd": 1995, "trainingGames": 788, "parameters": { "record_bracket": { "C": 0.1, "scale": 0.14581821150257995, "strengthCoefficient": 0.6228208618824949, "homeCoefficient": 0.6552843222727134, "trainingGames": 788, "innerSeasonCount": 6 }, "strength_bracket": { "C": 0.1, "scale": 3.8487956717451737, "strengthCoefficient": 0.5667208945404978, "homeCoefficient": 0.6547514136028698, "trainingGames": 788, "innerSeasonCount": 6 } }, "teams": [ { "id": "CHI", "name": "Chicago Bulls", "conference": "East", "seed": 1, "eligible": true, "wins": 72, "losses": 10, "strength": 10.556738918041624, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.2833333333333333, "record_bracket": 0.6458353838418381, "strength_bracket": 0.7027953403966901 } }, { "id": "ORL", "name": "Orlando Magic", "conference": "East", "seed": 2, "eligible": true, "wins": 60, "losses": 22, "strength": 4.822521119664068, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.08333333333333333, "record_bracket": 0.06769358999022682, "strength_bracket": 0.03906745201475758 } }, { "id": "MIA", "name": "Miami Heat", "conference": "East", "seed": 8, "eligible": true, "wins": 42, "losses": 40, "strength": 1.2930965920777306, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.016666666666666666, "record_bracket": 0.00014669329168515087, "strength_bracket": 0.0009527598509614062 } }, { "id": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "conference": "East", "seed": 6, "eligible": true, "wins": 46, "losses": 36, "strength": 1.1376434086144571, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.05, "record_bracket": 0.0005665124413562804, "strength_bracket": 0.000983000942136174 } }, { "id": "DET", "name": "Detroit Pistons", "conference": "East", "seed": 7, "eligible": true, "wins": 46, "losses": 36, "strength": 2.1860702239840446, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.016666666666666666, "record_bracket": 0.0005029706385464128, "strength_bracket": 0.0022681504635709408 } }, { "id": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "conference": "East", "seed": 4, "eligible": true, "wins": 47, "losses": 35, "strength": 2.225145000668345, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.016666666666666666, "record_bracket": 0.0012715511913953632, "strength_bracket": 0.0034822631092329987 } }, { "id": "NYK", "name": "New York Knicks", "conference": "East", "seed": 5, "eligible": true, "wins": 47, "losses": 35, "strength": 2.000427349634652, "probabilities": { "uniform": 0.0625, "seed_history": 0.016666666666666666, "record_bracket": 0.0009834560429226907, 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